Anchor on the latest observed TrueUp ratio (~7.5%), then use news on Amazon-specific hiring/layoff momentum (numerator) and aggregate tech posting trends (denominator) to shift the central estimate, with the Monte Carlo quantiles setting distribution width; sub-question probabilities blend via weighted average into a slightly-wide distribution centered near 7.3–7.8%.
## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.72, Volume: $7.2M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $4.4M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.28, Volume: $6.8M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.8M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.1M
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | UP | DATED] TrueUp's tech jobs overview reported Amazon at 20.5K open jobs as of July 31, 2026, versus 20,019 on July 29. 2. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 78 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Amazon ranks #1 by open jobs among TrueUp-tracked companies, roughly triple #2 Tesla (7.5K), with Apple 4.8K and Google 3.4K. 3. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | DATED] Amazon announced plans to hire 11,000 software developers, engineers and interns in 2026; AWS chief called cuts a 'recalibration, not a retreat.' 4. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | DATED] Amazon eliminated roughly 30,000 roles across late 2025 and early 2026. 5. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 92 | UP | RECENT] US economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July 2026 with prior months revised sharply lower and wage growth at a five-year low. 6. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | DATED] Major tech layoffs continued in 2026: Meta cut ~8,000, Intuit 3,000 (17%), plus cuts at Cisco and Oracle, tied to AI reallocation. 7. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | DATED] May 2026 JOLTS-based commentary suggested the 'hiring recession' may be ending, though economists flagged Iran-war fallout as a risk to that momentum. 8. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 65 | NEUTRAL | DATED] TrueUp notes its index tracks 9,000+ tech companies and startups and diverges from weaker external gauges like Indeed's software-postings index. 9. [sq4 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo over a ~5-week horizon gives median share 7.58%, P(share>=7.5%)=0.54, P(move >1.0pp)=0.19, 90% interval ~6.4-9.0%. 10. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] The resolution window is only about five weeks from the baseline, limiting scope for large structural shifts in either numerator or denominator. ## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.72, Volume: $7.2M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $4.4M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.28, Volume: $6.8M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.8M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.1M Information gaps: - No historical TrueUp time series of Amazon's share to establish week-to-week volatility base rate - No August 2026 TrueUp total-openings figure to compare against 265,350 baseline - Unclear whether TrueUp includes Amazon seasonal/warehouse postings that ramp in late summer - No data on TrueUp company-coverage changes that could shift the denominator mechanically Key uncertainties: - Whether Amazon's fall/holiday hiring ramp lifts its TrueUp count before Sept 2 - Direction of aggregate startup+big-tech postings amid AI-driven layoffs - Possible TrueUp methodology or scraping artifacts on the resolution date - Macro shock (Iran war, weak payrolls) suppressing both numerator and denominator
You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.
## Question
What percentage of all startup or tech company job openings will be with Amazon on September 2, 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
As of July 29, 2026 at 5:52 PM Eastern Daylight Time, Amazon had 20,019 open jobs according to TrueUp, while the total number of open jobs at top startups and big tech companies was 265,350. Thus, openings at Amazon were 7.5% of the total.
`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "8d5e9bc0c2229d56", "sheet_id": "165"}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as the percentage (rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent) of all job openings at top startups and big tech companies that are at Amazon, as displayed by TrueUp's scan at its [Big Tech Hiring](https://www.trueup.io/big-tech-hiring) tracker when accessed by Metaculus on September 2, 2026. For purposes of resolution, the numerator is *Open jobs at Amazon* and the denominator is the number of *open jobs at top startups and big tech companies* on that same page.
## Range
The answer must be a number in [5.95, 9.05] (units: %).
## Sub-question decomposition (planner)
- (w=0.35) Will Amazon's share of TrueUp-tracked open jobs on September 2, 2026 be at or above 7.5% (the July 29, 2026 baseline)? — Anchors the forecast on persistence of the current level; the ~5-week horizon makes the latest reading the dominant pred
- (w=0.25) Will Amazon's absolute open-job count on TrueUp rise (rather than fall) between late July 2026 and September 2, 2026? — The numerator drives most short-run variation; Amazon posts in bursts (e.g., pre-Q4 ramp, corporate hiring waves) and ha
- (w=0.20) Will the total number of open jobs at top startups and big tech companies on TrueUp be materially lower (>3% decline) than the 265,350 baseline on September 2, 2026? — A shrinking denominator mechanically raises Amazon's share even if Amazon postings are flat; broad tech hiring trend and
- (w=0.20) Will Amazon's share move by more than 1.0 percentage point (in either direction) from 7.5% by September 2, 2026? — Calibrates the width/tails of the numeric distribution — TrueUp counts can jump from methodology changes, tracker univer
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | UP | DATED] TrueUp's tech jobs overview reported Amazon at 20.5K open jobs as of July 31, 2026, versus 20,019 on July 29.
2. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 78 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Amazon ranks #1 by open jobs among TrueUp-tracked companies, roughly triple #2 Tesla (7.5K), with Apple 4.8K and Google 3.4K.
3. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | DATED] Amazon announced plans to hire 11,000 software developers, engineers and interns in 2026; AWS chief called cuts a 'recalibration, not a retreat.'
4. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | DATED] Amazon eliminated roughly 30,000 roles across late 2025 and early 2026.
5. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 92 | UP | RECENT] US economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July 2026 with prior months revised sharply lower and wage growth at a five-year low.
6. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | DATED] Major tech layoffs continued in 2026: Meta cut ~8,000, Intuit 3,000 (17%), plus cuts at Cisco and Oracle, tied to AI reallocation.
7. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | DATED] May 2026 JOLTS-based commentary suggested the 'hiring recession' may be ending, though economists flagged Iran-war fallout as a risk to that momentum.
8. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 65 | NEUTRAL | DATED] TrueUp notes its index tracks 9,000+ tech companies and startups and diverges from weaker external gauges like Indeed's software-postings index.
9. [sq4 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo over a ~5-week horizon gives median share 7.58%, P(share>=7.5%)=0.54, P(move >1.0pp)=0.19, 90% interval ~6.4-9.0%.
10. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] The resolution window is only about five weeks from the baseline, limiting scope for large structural shifts in either numerator or denominator.
## Cross-Market Signals
### Polymarket
- "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.72, Volume: $7.2M
- "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $4.4M
- "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.28, Volume: $6.8M
- "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.8M
- "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.1M
Information gaps:
- No historical TrueUp time series of Amazon's share to establish week-to-week volatility base rate
- No August 2026 TrueUp total-openings figure to compare against 265,350 baseline
- Unclear whether TrueUp includes Amazon seasonal/warehouse postings that ramp in late summer
- No data on TrueUp company-coverage changes that could shift the denominator mechanically
Key uncertainties:
- Whether Amazon's fall/holiday hiring ramp lifts its TrueUp count before Sept 2
- Direction of aggregate startup+big-tech postings amid AI-driven layoffs
- Possible TrueUp methodology or scraping artifacts on the resolution date
- Macro shock (Iran war, weak payrolls) suppressing both numerator and denominator
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).
(c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.
(d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.
(e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).
(f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).
## Calibration guidance
- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.
- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.
- Don't pile mass at one value — if you're tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.
- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen — don't override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.
- **Relative-return / spread questions ("how much will X's return exceed Y's").** A near-zero median is usually right, but size the TAILS to the more VOLATILE leg, not to a generic 2-3pp spread. Two broad equity indices (e.g. Nasdaq-100 vs S&P 500) do stay within roughly ±2-3pp over a two-week window. But when one leg is a commodity (crude oil, gold) or a single high-beta stock (e.g. Nvidia), the two-week realized spread regularly reaches ±10pp or more — crude-vs-equity spreads have hit ±18pp. In those cases set p10/p90 to at least ±10pp (±15pp or wider for oil) while keeping the median near the status-quo spread; the 2-3pp intuition applies only to index-vs-index.
- **Heavy-tailed one-off magnitudes (opening-weekend box office, product-launch or debut numbers).** Pre-event tracking for these routinely misses by ±40% or more, and results land both far above and far below the consensus. Do NOT treat the displayed [min, max] range as the plausible range or clamp p10/p90 to its edges: the outcome can fall outside the range in either direction (recent opening weekends resolved ~7% above a displayed ceiling in one case and roughly half the displayed floor in another). Set p10/p90 wide enough that a 2x-or-0.5x surprise versus your central estimate still lands inside the interval, and when concrete current tracking disagrees with historical/franchise base rates, weight the tracking.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution — 6-10 sentences total>",
"p10": <number>,
"p25": <number>,
"p50": <number>,
"p75": <number>,
"p90": <number>
}
Percentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 <= p25 <= p50 <= p75 <= p90).
{
"forecast": {
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | UP | DATED] TrueUp\u0027s tech jobs overview reported Amazon at 20.5K open jobs as of July 31, 2026, versus 20,019 on July 29.\n2. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 78 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Amazon ranks #1 by open jobs among TrueUp-tracked companies, roughly triple #2 Tesla (7.5K), with Apple 4.8K and Google 3.4K.\n3. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | DATED] Amazon announced plans to hire 11,000 software developers, engineers and interns in 2026; AWS chief called cuts a \u0027recalibration, not a retreat.\u0027\n4. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | DATED] Amazon eliminated roughly 30,000 roles across late 2025 and early 2026.\n5. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 92 | UP | RECENT] US economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July 2026 with prior months revised sharply lower and wage growth at a five-year low.\n6. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | DATED] Major tech layoffs continued in 2026: Meta cut ~8,000, Intuit 3,000 (17%), plus cuts at Cisco and Oracle, tied to AI reallocation.\n7. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | DATED] May 2026 JOLTS-based commentary suggested the \u0027hiring recession\u0027 may be ending, though economists flagged Iran-war fallout as a risk to that momentum.\n8. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 65 | NEUTRAL | DATED] TrueUp notes its index tracks 9,000+ tech companies and startups and diverges from weaker external gauges like Indeed\u0027s software-postings index.\n9. [sq4 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo over a ~5-week horizon gives median share 7.58%, P(share\u003e=7.5%)=0.54, P(move \u003e1.0pp)=0.19, 90% interval ~6.4-9.0%.\n10. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] The resolution window is only about five weeks from the baseline, limiting scope for large structural shifts in either numerator or denominator.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.72, Volume: $7.2M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $4.4M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.28, Volume: $6.8M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.8M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.1M\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No historical TrueUp time series of Amazon\u0027s share to establish week-to-week volatility base rate\n - No August 2026 TrueUp total-openings figure to compare against 265,350 baseline\n - Unclear whether TrueUp includes Amazon seasonal/warehouse postings that ramp in late summer\n - No data on TrueUp company-coverage changes that could shift the denominator mechanically\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether Amazon\u0027s fall/holiday hiring ramp lifts its TrueUp count before Sept 2\n - Direction of aggregate startup+big-tech postings amid AI-driven layoffs\n - Possible TrueUp methodology or scraping artifacts on the resolution date\n - Macro shock (Iran war, weak payrolls) suppressing both numerator and denominator",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.\n\n## Question\nWhat percentage of all startup or tech company job openings will be with Amazon on September 2, 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nAs of July 29, 2026 at 5:52 PM Eastern Daylight Time, Amazon had 20,019 open jobs according to TrueUp, while the total number of open jobs at top startups and big tech companies was 265,350. Thus, openings at Amazon were 7.5% of the total.\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"8d5e9bc0c2229d56\", \"sheet_id\": \"165\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the percentage (rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent) of all job openings at top startups and big tech companies that are at Amazon, as displayed by TrueUp\u0027s scan at its [Big Tech Hiring](https://www.trueup.io/big-tech-hiring) tracker when accessed by Metaculus on September 2, 2026. For purposes of resolution, the numerator is *Open jobs at Amazon* and the denominator is the number of *open jobs at top startups and big tech companies* on that same page.\n\n## Range\nThe answer must be a number in [5.95, 9.05] (units: %).\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n- (w=0.35) Will Amazon\u0027s share of TrueUp-tracked open jobs on September 2, 2026 be at or above 7.5% (the July 29, 2026 baseline)? \u2014 Anchors the forecast on persistence of the current level; the ~5-week horizon makes the latest reading the dominant pred\n- (w=0.25) Will Amazon\u0027s absolute open-job count on TrueUp rise (rather than fall) between late July 2026 and September 2, 2026? \u2014 The numerator drives most short-run variation; Amazon posts in bursts (e.g., pre-Q4 ramp, corporate hiring waves) and ha\n- (w=0.20) Will the total number of open jobs at top startups and big tech companies on TrueUp be materially lower (\u003e3% decline) than the 265,350 baseline on September 2, 2026? \u2014 A shrinking denominator mechanically raises Amazon\u0027s share even if Amazon postings are flat; broad tech hiring trend and\n- (w=0.20) Will Amazon\u0027s share move by more than 1.0 percentage point (in either direction) from 7.5% by September 2, 2026? \u2014 Calibrates the width/tails of the numeric distribution \u2014 TrueUp counts can jump from methodology changes, tracker univer\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | UP | DATED] TrueUp\u0027s tech jobs overview reported Amazon at 20.5K open jobs as of July 31, 2026, versus 20,019 on July 29.\n2. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 78 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Amazon ranks #1 by open jobs among TrueUp-tracked companies, roughly triple #2 Tesla (7.5K), with Apple 4.8K and Google 3.4K.\n3. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | DATED] Amazon announced plans to hire 11,000 software developers, engineers and interns in 2026; AWS chief called cuts a \u0027recalibration, not a retreat.\u0027\n4. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | DATED] Amazon eliminated roughly 30,000 roles across late 2025 and early 2026.\n5. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 92 | UP | RECENT] US economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July 2026 with prior months revised sharply lower and wage growth at a five-year low.\n6. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | DATED] Major tech layoffs continued in 2026: Meta cut ~8,000, Intuit 3,000 (17%), plus cuts at Cisco and Oracle, tied to AI reallocation.\n7. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | DATED] May 2026 JOLTS-based commentary suggested the \u0027hiring recession\u0027 may be ending, though economists flagged Iran-war fallout as a risk to that momentum.\n8. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 65 | NEUTRAL | DATED] TrueUp notes its index tracks 9,000+ tech companies and startups and diverges from weaker external gauges like Indeed\u0027s software-postings index.\n9. [sq4 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo over a ~5-week horizon gives median share 7.58%, P(share\u003e=7.5%)=0.54, P(move \u003e1.0pp)=0.19, 90% interval ~6.4-9.0%.\n10. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] The resolution window is only about five weeks from the baseline, limiting scope for large structural shifts in either numerator or denominator.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.72, Volume: $7.2M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $4.4M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.28, Volume: $6.8M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.8M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.1M\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No historical TrueUp time series of Amazon\u0027s share to establish week-to-week volatility base rate\n - No August 2026 TrueUp total-openings figure to compare against 265,350 baseline\n - Unclear whether TrueUp includes Amazon seasonal/warehouse postings that ramp in late summer\n - No data on TrueUp company-coverage changes that could shift the denominator mechanically\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether Amazon\u0027s fall/holiday hiring ramp lifts its TrueUp count before Sept 2\n - Direction of aggregate startup+big-tech postings amid AI-driven layoffs\n - Possible TrueUp methodology or scraping artifacts on the resolution date\n - Macro shock (Iran war, weak payrolls) suppressing both numerator and denominator\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).\n (c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.\n (d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.\n (e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).\n (f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.\n- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.\n- Don\u0027t pile mass at one value \u2014 if you\u0027re tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.\n- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen \u2014 don\u0027t override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.\n- **Relative-return / spread questions (\"how much will X\u0027s return exceed Y\u0027s\").** A near-zero median is usually right, but size the TAILS to the more VOLATILE leg, not to a generic 2-3pp spread. Two broad equity indices (e.g. Nasdaq-100 vs S\u0026P 500) do stay within roughly \u00b12-3pp over a two-week window. But when one leg is a commodity (crude oil, gold) or a single high-beta stock (e.g. Nvidia), the two-week realized spread regularly reaches \u00b110pp or more \u2014 crude-vs-equity spreads have hit \u00b118pp. In those cases set p10/p90 to at least \u00b110pp (\u00b115pp or wider for oil) while keeping the median near the status-quo spread; the 2-3pp intuition applies only to index-vs-index.\n- **Heavy-tailed one-off magnitudes (opening-weekend box office, product-launch or debut numbers).** Pre-event tracking for these routinely misses by \u00b140% or more, and results land both far above and far below the consensus. Do NOT treat the displayed [min, max] range as the plausible range or clamp p10/p90 to its edges: the outcome can fall outside the range in either direction (recent opening weekends resolved ~7% above a displayed ceiling in one case and roughly half the displayed floor in another). Set p10/p90 wide enough that a 2x-or-0.5x surprise versus your central estimate still lands inside the interval, and when concrete current tracking disagrees with historical/franchise base rates, weight the tracking.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution \u2014 6-10 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"p10\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p25\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p50\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p75\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p90\": \u003cnumber\u003e\n}\n\nPercentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 \u003c= p25 \u003c= p50 \u003c= p75 \u003c= p90).\n",
"models": [
"opus",
"secondary"
],
"p50": 7.65,
"percentiles": {
"0.1": 6.675000000000001,
"0.25": 7.225,
"0.5": 7.65,
"0.75": 8.15,
"0.9": 8.7
},
"rationale": "(a) About five weeks separate the July 29, 2026 baseline from the September 2, 2026 resolution date \u2014 a short window that strongly favors status-quo anchoring. (b) If nothing changes, the answer is 7.5% (20,019/265,350). (c) The most recent trend is mildly upward for Amazon (20.5K on July 31 vs 20,019 on July 29) while aggregate tech postings face headwinds (Meta, Intuit, Cisco, Oracle cuts; a weak July payroll print), and Amazon typically ramps corporate/ops postings into late summer ahead of Q4 \u2014 both effects push the ratio slightly above 7.5%, toward ~7.6-7.8%. (d) No liquid market exists on this; the Monte Carlo sub-analysis gives a median of 7.58% with P(share\u003e=7.5%)=0.54 and only ~19% chance of a \u003e1.0pp move, consistent with a tight distribution centered near baseline; Fed markets imply no dramatic macro regime change before September. (e) LOW scenario (~p10): Amazon\u0027s postings mean-revert after a July burst (the ~30,000 role eliminations in late 2025/early 2026 continue to depress corporate reqs), while TrueUp adds coverage or the broader startup universe posts an August rebound as the \u0027hiring recession\u0027 ends, dropping the share toward 6.9%. (f) HIGH scenario (~p90): Amazon\u0027s holiday/fulfillment and the announced 11,000 engineer/intern hiring push flood postings into late August while layoff-driven freezes shrink the denominator by several percent, lifting share to ~8.5%. Amazon is already #1 by a wide margin (~3x Tesla), so its share is structurally sticky and mechanical jumps mostly come from tracker artifacts, which I put in the tails. I center at ~7.65% with a modest right skew and wide-enough tails to absorb scraping/methodology surprises."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "tech",
"n_sub_qs": 4,
"n_tools": 4,
"reasoning_approach": "Anchor on the latest observed TrueUp ratio (~7.5%), then use news on Amazon-specific hiring/layoff momentum (numerator) and aggregate tech posting trends (denominator) to shift the central estimate, with the Monte Carlo quantiles setting distribution width; sub-question probabilities blend via weighted average into a slightly-wide distribution centered near 7.3\u20137.8%.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will Amazon\u0027s share of TrueUp-tracked open jobs on September 2, 2026 be at or above 7.5% (the July 29, 2026 baseline)?",
"rationale": "Anchors the forecast on persistence of the current level; the ~5-week horizon makes the latest reading the dominant predictor.",
"weight": 0.35
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will Amazon\u0027s absolute open-job count on TrueUp rise (rather than fall) between late July 2026 and September 2, 2026?",
"rationale": "The numerator drives most short-run variation; Amazon posts in bursts (e.g., pre-Q4 ramp, corporate hiring waves) and has also had large layoff-driven drops.",
"weight": 0.25
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will the total number of open jobs at top startups and big tech companies on TrueUp be materially lower (\u003e3% decline) than the 265,350 baseline on September 2, 2026?",
"rationale": "A shrinking denominator mechanically raises Amazon\u0027s share even if Amazon postings are flat; broad tech hiring trend and TrueUp company-universe changes matter.",
"weight": 0.2
},
{
"id": "sq4",
"question": "Will Amazon\u0027s share move by more than 1.0 percentage point (in either direction) from 7.5% by September 2, 2026?",
"rationale": "Calibrates the width/tails of the numeric distribution \u2014 TrueUp counts can jump from methodology changes, tracker universe edits, or big layoff/hiring announcements.",
"weight": 0.2
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"TrueUp big tech hiring tracker open jobs Amazon",
"Amazon open jobs count TrueUp August 2026",
"tech job openings total big tech startups August 2026"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find the most recent values from TrueUp\u0027s Big Tech Hiring tracker (trueup.io/big-tech-hiring): current \u0027Open jobs at Amazon\u0027 and total \u0027open jobs at top startups and big tech companies\u0027, plus any historical readings from the past 6-12 months (including archived snapshots). Also find recent news on Amazon corporate hiring, hiring freezes, layoffs (e.g., October 2025 corporate layoffs), seasonal Q4 hiring ramp timing, and overall big-tech job-posting trends in mid-2026.",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "What percentage of all startup or tech company job openings will be with Amazon on September 2, 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_days": 120,
"queries": [
"Amazon hiring layoffs corporate jobs 2026",
"tech job postings decline hiring slowdown 2026",
"Amazon seasonal hiring ramp announcement 2026"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq2",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\nnp.random.seed(0)\n# Baseline: Amazon 20019 of 265350 = 7.545%\nA0, T0 = 20019.0, 265350.0\nbase = A0/T0*100\nn=200000\n# ~5 week horizon; log-normal shocks on numerator and denominator\n# Amazon postings volatile (weekly sd ~4%), 5 weeks -\u003e sd ~9%; slight upward drift for Q4 ramp\nsA = np.random.normal(0.01, 0.09, n)\n# Denominator less volatile (aggregate of many firms): sd ~4%, slight drift\nsT = np.random.normal(0.005, 0.045, n)\nshare = base*np.exp(sA-sT)\nqs=[1,5,10,20,25,50,75,80,90,95,99]\nprint(\u0027base\u0027, round(base,3))\nprint({q: round(float(np.percentile(share,q)),2) for q in qs})\nprint(\u0027P(share\u003e=7.5)\u0027, float((share\u003e=7.5).mean()))\nprint(\u0027P(|share-7.545|\u003e1.0)\u0027, float((np.abs(share-base)\u003e1.0).mean()))\nprint(\u0027P(share\u003c7.0)\u0027, float((share\u003c7.0).mean()), \u0027P(share\u003e8.5)\u0027, float((share\u003e8.5).mean()))\n",
"description": "Monte Carlo of Amazon\u0027s share of TrueUp openings over a ~5-week horizon using multiplicative shocks on numerator and denominator; outputs quantiles and threshold probabilities for sq1 and sq4."
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-08-13T18:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nAs of July 29, 2026 at 5:52 PM Eastern Daylight Time, Amazon had 20,019 open jobs according to TrueUp, while the total number of open jobs at top startups and big tech companies was 265,350. Thus, openings at Amazon were 7.5% of the total.\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"8d5e9bc0c2229d56\", \"sheet_id\": \"165\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the percentage (rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent) of all job openings at top startups and big tech companies that are at Amazon, as displayed by TrueUp\u0027s scan at its [Big Tech Hiring](https://www.trueup.io/big-tech-hiring) tracker when accessed by Metaculus on September 2, 2026. For purposes of resolution, the numerator is *Open jobs at Amazon* and the denominator is the number of *open jobs at top startups and big tech companies* on that same page.",
"open_lower": true,
"open_upper": true,
"q_max": 9.05,
"q_min": 5.95,
"question_type": "numeric",
"title": "What percentage of all startup or tech company job openings will be with Amazon on September 2, 2026?",
"units": "%"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.72, Volume: $7.2M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $4.4M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.28, Volume: $6.8M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.8M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.1M",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 4,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 26.14,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "20 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 32.92,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "11 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.58,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "21 articles",
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.25,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Monte Carlo of Amazon\u0027s share of TrueUp openings over a ~5-w",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"error": null,
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "TrueUp\u0027s tech jobs overview reported Amazon at 20.5K open jobs as of July 31, 2026, versus 20,019 on July 29.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Amazon ranks #1 by open jobs among TrueUp-tracked companies, roughly triple #2 Tesla (7.5K), with Apple 4.8K and Google 3.4K.",
"credibility": 78,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Amazon announced plans to hire 11,000 software developers, engineers and interns in 2026; AWS chief called cuts a \u0027recalibration, not a retreat.\u0027",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Amazon eliminated roughly 30,000 roles across late 2025 and early 2026.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "US economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July 2026 with prior months revised sharply lower and wage growth at a five-year low.",
"credibility": 92,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Major tech layoffs continued in 2026: Meta cut ~8,000, Intuit 3,000 (17%), plus cuts at Cisco and Oracle, tied to AI reallocation.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "May 2026 JOLTS-based commentary suggested the \u0027hiring recession\u0027 may be ending, though economists flagged Iran-war fallout as a risk to that momentum.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "TrueUp notes its index tracks 9,000+ tech companies and startups and diverges from weaker external gauges like Indeed\u0027s software-postings index.",
"credibility": 65,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Monte Carlo over a ~5-week horizon gives median share 7.58%, P(share\u003e=7.5%)=0.54, P(move \u003e1.0pp)=0.19, 90% interval ~6.4-9.0%.",
"credibility": 40,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "The resolution window is only about five weeks from the baseline, limiting scope for large structural shifts in either numerator or denominator.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No historical TrueUp time series of Amazon\u0027s share to establish week-to-week volatility base rate",
"No August 2026 TrueUp total-openings figure to compare against 265,350 baseline",
"Unclear whether TrueUp includes Amazon seasonal/warehouse postings that ramp in late summer",
"No data on TrueUp company-coverage changes that could shift the denominator mechanically"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether Amazon\u0027s fall/holiday hiring ramp lifts its TrueUp count before Sept 2",
"Direction of aggregate startup+big-tech postings amid AI-driven layoffs",
"Possible TrueUp methodology or scraping artifacts on the resolution date",
"Macro shock (Iran war, weak payrolls) suppressing both numerator and denominator"
],
"n_evidence": 10
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 41.81,
"plan": 24.95,
"research": 32.93,
"synthesis": 29.74
}
}