Show full JSON
{
"forecast": {
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | question_description | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Since 1978 the S\u0026P 500 has averaged +0.5% in the month following the first day of the Jackson Hole symposium.\n2. [sq1 | question_description | STRONG cred 95 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The resolution window (Aug 26 close to Aug 31 open) spans roughly two trading sessions plus a weekend gap, i.e. ~3 calendar days.\n3. [sq1 | general_market_knowledge | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Unconditional S\u0026P 500 daily standard deviation is roughly 1%; over ~2.5 sessions this implies a distribution centered near 0% with ~1.3-1.6% dispersion.\n4. [sq1 | general_market_knowledge | WEAK cred 65 | UP | DATED] Equity index returns have a small positive drift, making slightly-positive outcomes marginally more likely than negative over short horizons.\n5. [sq1 | question_description | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | DATED] On Aug 22, 2025, the S\u0026P 500 rose sharply (~+1.5%) after Powell\u0027s Jackson Hole speech signaled possible rate cuts.\n6. [sq1 | question_description | MODERATE cred 90 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The 2026 symposium topic is \u0027Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy,\u0027 not directly a monetary-policy-stance theme.\n7. [sq1 | general_market_knowledge | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Chair Powell\u0027s term as Fed Chair expires May 2026, so the 2026 keynote may be delivered by a new or transitioning Chair, adding uncertainty to the policy signal.\n8. [sq1 | general_market_knowledge | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Late August is typically a low-volume, low-realized-volatility period for US equities, which tends to compress short-horizon moves.\n9. [sq1 | resolution_criteria | WEAK cred 55 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Using an open price as the endpoint adds an overnight/weekend gap component, which historically has slightly higher variance than intraday-to-intraday comparisons.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.71, Volume: $7.1M\n- \"Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.5M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.28, Volume: $6.7M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.1M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.8M\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.04, Volume: $2.7M\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $341.4K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.27, Volume: $213.5K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.02, Volume: $417.1K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $177.2K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No research data supplied at all \u2014 no news, prices, or market quotes\n - Missing base rate: historical distribution of S\u0026P 500 close-before-symposium to open-after-symposium changes\n - No current VIX level, options-implied move, or recent realized volatility\n - No 2026 macro context (inflation, Fed path, Chair identity, index level)\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether the keynote delivers a policy surprise (hawkish/dovish)\n - Macro data releases falling within Aug 27-28, 2026\n - Prevailing volatility regime in Aug 2026\n - Non-Fed exogenous shocks over the weekend gap",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.\n\n## Question\nWhat will be the percentage change in the S\u0026P 500 from close of Aug 26, 2026 to open of Aug 31, 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nThe [Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium](https://www.kansascityfed.org/research/jackson-hole-economic-symposium/about-jackson-hole-economic-symposium/) is an annual event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. It brings together central bankers, policymakers, academics, and economists from around the world and is one of the longest-standing central banking conferences in the world. Given the participants and the topics being discussed, there is substantial interest in the symposium. In particular, investors are given some clarity about the Federal Reserve System\u0027s plans for monetary policy. This in turn can reduce volatility in the markets.\n\n[Some data analysis](https://ceooutlookmagazine.com/news/what-can-we-learn-from-historical-stock-market-performance-after-jackson-hole/) shows\n\n\u003e the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained an average of 0.3% in the month following the first day of the Jackson Hole meeting since 1978. The S\\\u0026P 500 has risen an average of 0.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite has climbed an average of 0.9%.\n\nFor example, [the US stock market surged](https://markethighlow.com/us-stock-market-jumps-as-powell-signals-possible-rate-cuts-at-jackson-hole-august-22-2025/) on August 22, 2025, after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered a speech hinting at interest rate cuts at the symposium.\n\nThe 2026 Symposium will take place August 27-29 with the topic of \"Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.\"\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 44532, \"question_id\": 44678}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question will resolve as the percentage change from the non-adjusted closing price of the S\\\u0026P 500 Index (^GSPC) according to [Yahoo! Finance](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/) on August 26, 2026, to the open price of the S\\\u0026P 500 on August 31, 2026. These prices are the last before the symposium and the first afterwards.\n\nFor example, if the dates were June 3 (\\$7,553.68 close) and June 8 (\\$7,440.57 open) the resolution would be -1.49742%.\n\n## Fine Print\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44532) which opened on 2026-08-10 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.\n\n## Range\nThe answer must be a number in [-2, 5] (units: %).\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n(none)\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | question_description | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Since 1978 the S\u0026P 500 has averaged +0.5% in the month following the first day of the Jackson Hole symposium.\n2. [sq1 | question_description | STRONG cred 95 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The resolution window (Aug 26 close to Aug 31 open) spans roughly two trading sessions plus a weekend gap, i.e. ~3 calendar days.\n3. [sq1 | general_market_knowledge | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Unconditional S\u0026P 500 daily standard deviation is roughly 1%; over ~2.5 sessions this implies a distribution centered near 0% with ~1.3-1.6% dispersion.\n4. [sq1 | general_market_knowledge | WEAK cred 65 | UP | DATED] Equity index returns have a small positive drift, making slightly-positive outcomes marginally more likely than negative over short horizons.\n5. [sq1 | question_description | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | DATED] On Aug 22, 2025, the S\u0026P 500 rose sharply (~+1.5%) after Powell\u0027s Jackson Hole speech signaled possible rate cuts.\n6. [sq1 | question_description | MODERATE cred 90 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The 2026 symposium topic is \u0027Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy,\u0027 not directly a monetary-policy-stance theme.\n7. [sq1 | general_market_knowledge | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Chair Powell\u0027s term as Fed Chair expires May 2026, so the 2026 keynote may be delivered by a new or transitioning Chair, adding uncertainty to the policy signal.\n8. [sq1 | general_market_knowledge | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Late August is typically a low-volume, low-realized-volatility period for US equities, which tends to compress short-horizon moves.\n9. [sq1 | resolution_criteria | WEAK cred 55 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Using an open price as the endpoint adds an overnight/weekend gap component, which historically has slightly higher variance than intraday-to-intraday comparisons.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.71, Volume: $7.1M\n- \"Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.5M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.28, Volume: $6.7M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.1M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.8M\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.04, Volume: $2.7M\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $341.4K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.27, Volume: $213.5K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.02, Volume: $417.1K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $177.2K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No research data supplied at all \u2014 no news, prices, or market quotes\n - Missing base rate: historical distribution of S\u0026P 500 close-before-symposium to open-after-symposium changes\n - No current VIX level, options-implied move, or recent realized volatility\n - No 2026 macro context (inflation, Fed path, Chair identity, index level)\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether the keynote delivers a policy surprise (hawkish/dovish)\n - Macro data releases falling within Aug 27-28, 2026\n - Prevailing volatility regime in Aug 2026\n - Non-Fed exogenous shocks over the weekend gap\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).\n (c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.\n (d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.\n (e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).\n (f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.\n- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.\n- Don\u0027t pile mass at one value \u2014 if you\u0027re tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.\n- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen \u2014 don\u0027t override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.\n- **Relative-return / spread questions (\"how much will X\u0027s return exceed Y\u0027s\").** A near-zero median is usually right, but size the TAILS to the more VOLATILE leg, not to a generic 2-3pp spread. Two broad equity indices (e.g. Nasdaq-100 vs S\u0026P 500) do stay within roughly \u00b12-3pp over a two-week window. But when one leg is a commodity (crude oil, gold) or a single high-beta stock (e.g. Nvidia), the two-week realized spread regularly reaches \u00b110pp or more \u2014 crude-vs-equity spreads have hit \u00b118pp. In those cases set p10/p90 to at least \u00b110pp (\u00b115pp or wider for oil) while keeping the median near the status-quo spread; the 2-3pp intuition applies only to index-vs-index.\n- **Heavy-tailed one-off magnitudes (opening-weekend box office, product-launch or debut numbers).** Pre-event tracking for these routinely misses by \u00b140% or more, and results land both far above and far below the consensus. Do NOT treat the displayed [min, max] range as the plausible range or clamp p10/p90 to its edges: the outcome can fall outside the range in either direction (recent opening weekends resolved ~7% above a displayed ceiling in one case and roughly half the displayed floor in another). Set p10/p90 wide enough that a 2x-or-0.5x surprise versus your central estimate still lands inside the interval, and when concrete current tracking disagrees with historical/franchise base rates, weight the tracking.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution \u2014 6-10 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"p10\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p25\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p50\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p75\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p90\": \u003cnumber\u003e\n}\n\nPercentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 \u003c= p25 \u003c= p50 \u003c= p75 \u003c= p90).\n",
"models": [
"opus",
"secondary"
],
"p50": 0.135,
"percentiles": {
"0.1": -1.55,
"0.25": -0.625,
"0.5": 0.135,
"0.75": 0.9500000000000001,
"0.9": 1.875
},
"rationale": "(a) The question resolves Aug 31, 2026, and the measurement window itself is only ~3 calendar days (Aug 26 close \u2192 Aug 27 and Aug 28 sessions \u2192 Aug 31 open), i.e. about 2 trading days plus a weekend gap. (b) Status quo (no news, flat market) gives ~0%, so the distribution must be centered essentially at zero with a tiny positive drift. (c) A continuing bull-drift trend would imply roughly +0.1% to +0.3% over 2.5 sessions, which is well within noise. (d) Base rates: unconditional S\u0026P daily sigma ~0.9-1.1%, so ~2.5-3 units of variance implies sigma ~1.3-1.6%; late-August low-liquidity regimes typically compress this toward ~1.0-1.3%. Jackson Hole historically adds mild event risk, but the 2026 theme is payments/financial innovation rather than the policy stance, and Polymarket\u0027s September FOMC pricing (71% hold, 28% hike) suggests policy expectations are fairly settled though with hawkish tail risk \u2014 that hike-risk pricing argues for slightly fatter downside than a pure random walk. (e) LOW scenario (~p10): a hawkish keynote from a transitioning Fed leadership, hot inflation/PCE data on Aug 28, or a weekend geopolitical/credit shock gapping Monday\u0027s open down 1.5-2%. (f) HIGH scenario (~p90): a dovish or reassuring keynote plus soft inflation data producing a 1.5-2% two-day melt-up, echoing the ~+1.5% single-day move after Powell\u0027s 2025 speech. I center at +0.1%, use an effective sigma near 1.2%, and widen the tails modestly for unknown unknowns and the possibility of an elevated-volatility regime, acknowledging the hard -2% floor truncates the left tail."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "unknown",
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"question": {
"close_time": "2026-08-13T17:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nThe [Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium](https://www.kansascityfed.org/research/jackson-hole-economic-symposium/about-jackson-hole-economic-symposium/) is an annual event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. It brings together central bankers, policymakers, academics, and economists from around the world and is one of the longest-standing central banking conferences in the world. Given the participants and the topics being discussed, there is substantial interest in the symposium. In particular, investors are given some clarity about the Federal Reserve System\u0027s plans for monetary policy. This in turn can reduce volatility in the markets.\n\n[Some data analysis](https://ceooutlookmagazine.com/news/what-can-we-learn-from-historical-stock-market-performance-after-jackson-hole/) shows\n\n\u003e the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained an average of 0.3% in the month following the first day of the Jackson Hole meeting since 1978. The S\\\u0026P 500 has risen an average of 0.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite has climbed an average of 0.9%.\n\nFor example, [the US stock market surged](https://markethighlow.com/us-stock-market-jumps-as-powell-signals-possible-rate-cuts-at-jackson-hole-august-22-2025/) on August 22, 2025, after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered a speech hinting at interest rate cuts at the symposium.\n\nThe 2026 Symposium will take place August 27-29 with the topic of \"Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.\"\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 44532, \"question_id\": 44678}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question will resolve as the percentage change from the non-adjusted closing price of the S\\\u0026P 500 Index (^GSPC) according to [Yahoo! Finance](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/) on August 26, 2026, to the open price of the S\\\u0026P 500 on August 31, 2026. These prices are the last before the symposium and the first afterwards.\n\nFor example, if the dates were June 3 (\\$7,553.68 close) and June 8 (\\$7,440.57 open) the resolution would be -1.49742%.\n\n## Fine Print\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44532) which opened on 2026-08-10 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.",
"open_lower": true,
"open_upper": true,
"q_max": 5,
"q_min": -2,
"question_type": "numeric",
"title": "What will be the percentage change in the S\u0026P 500 from close of Aug 26, 2026 to open of Aug 31, 2026?",
"units": "%"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.71, Volume: $7.1M\n- \"Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.5M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.28, Volume: $6.7M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.1M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.8M\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.04, Volume: $2.7M\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $341.4K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.27, Volume: $213.5K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.02, Volume: $417.1K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $177.2K",
"errors": [],
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{
"claim": "Since 1978 the S\u0026P 500 has averaged +0.5% in the month following the first day of the Jackson Hole symposium.",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "question_description",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "The resolution window (Aug 26 close to Aug 31 open) spans roughly two trading sessions plus a weekend gap, i.e. ~3 calendar days.",
"credibility": 95,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "question_description",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Unconditional S\u0026P 500 daily standard deviation is roughly 1%; over ~2.5 sessions this implies a distribution centered near 0% with ~1.3-1.6% dispersion.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "general_market_knowledge",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Equity index returns have a small positive drift, making slightly-positive outcomes marginally more likely than negative over short horizons.",
"credibility": 65,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "general_market_knowledge",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "On Aug 22, 2025, the S\u0026P 500 rose sharply (~+1.5%) after Powell\u0027s Jackson Hole speech signaled possible rate cuts.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "question_description",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "The 2026 symposium topic is \u0027Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy,\u0027 not directly a monetary-policy-stance theme.",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "question_description",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Chair Powell\u0027s term as Fed Chair expires May 2026, so the 2026 keynote may be delivered by a new or transitioning Chair, adding uncertainty to the policy signal.",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "general_market_knowledge",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Late August is typically a low-volume, low-realized-volatility period for US equities, which tends to compress short-horizon moves.",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "general_market_knowledge",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Using an open price as the endpoint adds an overnight/weekend gap component, which historically has slightly higher variance than intraday-to-intraday comparisons.",
"credibility": 55,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "resolution_criteria",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No research data supplied at all \u2014 no news, prices, or market quotes",
"Missing base rate: historical distribution of S\u0026P 500 close-before-symposium to open-after-symposium changes",
"No current VIX level, options-implied move, or recent realized volatility",
"No 2026 macro context (inflation, Fed path, Chair identity, index level)"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether the keynote delivers a policy surprise (hawkish/dovish)",
"Macro data releases falling within Aug 27-28, 2026",
"Prevailing volatility regime in Aug 2026",
"Non-Fed exogenous shocks over the weekend gap"
],
"n_evidence": 9
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 32.74,
"plan": 42.15,
"research": 0.74,
"synthesis": 22.64
}
}