Anchor on the latest EIA Lower Atlantic diesel level and EIA STEO forecast, then build a probability distribution over Aug 2026 outcomes using historical 9-month volatility of retail diesel prices; the threshold sub-questions define the CDF and the crude-oil sub-question cross-checks the central tendency, blended via weighted averaging into a median and spread.
## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $504.6K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.14, Volume: $2.1M - "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 11?" → Yes: 1.00, Volume: $272.9K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.36, Volume: $1.1M - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?" → Yes: 0.04, Volume: $251.7K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026?" → Yes: 0.05, Volume: $204.3K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?" → Yes: 0.12, Volume: $214.5K - "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 11?" → Yes: 1.00, Volume: $162.5K - "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 11?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $145.4K - "Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $235.2K
1. [sq1 | fred_data | STRONG cred 96 | UP | VERY_RECENT] FRED weekly U.S. average on-highway diesel (GASDESW) was $5.348/gal as of 2026-08-03, far above the $3.40 threshold. 2. [sq1 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] National diesel is down only $0.248 year-over-year, indicating a slow decline rather than a collapse toward $3.40. 3. [sq2 | fred_data | STRONG cred 92 | UP | VERY_RECENT] With national diesel at $5.35 on Aug 3, 2026, a fall below $3.75 within four weeks would require an unprecedented ~30% one-month drop. 4. [sq3 | fred_data | STRONG cred 92 | UP | VERY_RECENT] National diesel at $5.35 sits roughly $1.10 above the $4.25 threshold, requiring a ~21% decline by Aug 31, 2026. 5. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | DATED] May 2026 STEO projected U.S. on-highway diesel averaging $4.94/gal in Q3 2026 and $4.73/gal in Q4 2026, both above $4.25. 6. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | DATED] EIA's April/May 2026 STEO revisions attributed elevated 2026 diesel prices to a Strait of Hormuz closure and Middle East disruption. 7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Prices have been declining from an April 2026 peak (~$5.68 national) to $5.35 by early August, a moderating trend. 8. [sq4 | fred_data | STRONG cred 95 | UP | VERY_RECENT] WTI spot was $81.96/bbl on 2026-08-03, implying Brent roughly $85/bbl, well above the $75 threshold. 9. [sq4 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] WTI is down only $1.47 year-over-year, showing crude has stabilized at elevated levels rather than trending sharply lower. 10. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Pre-crisis December 2025 STEO had forecast 2026 U.S. diesel averaging only $3.50/gal, showing how large the geopolitical premium currently is. 11. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Lower Atlantic (PADD 1C) covers FL, GA, NC, SC, VA, WV and historically tracks close to but typically slightly below the national diesel average. 12. [sq3 | code_execution | WEAK cred 20 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The volatility-distribution analysis returned only an 'analysis scaffold' output with no numeric threshold probabilities. ## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $504.6K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.14, Volume: $2.1M - "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 11?" → Yes: 1.00, Volume: $272.9K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.36, Volume: $1.1M - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?" → Yes: 0.04, Volume: $251.7K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026?" → Yes: 0.05, Volume: $204.3K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?" → Yes: 0.12, Volume: $214.5K - "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 11?" → Yes: 1.00, Volume: $162.5K - "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 11?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $145.4K - "Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $235.2K Information gaps: - No direct EIA PADD 1C Lower Atlantic diesel level or its current spread to the national average - No August 2026 STEO or current Brent futures curve for Aug/Sep 2026 - No base rate for maximum historical 4-week retail diesel declines - Current status of Strait of Hormuz / Middle East supply disruption unknown Key uncertainties: - Whether the geopolitical supply disruption resolves abruptly, crashing crude - Atlantic hurricane season impact on Gulf/East Coast refining and distribution - Distillate crack spread and inventory trajectory into September - Size and stability of Lower Atlantic vs national price differential
You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.
## Question
What will be the average price of diesel in the lower Atlantic U.S. on August 31, 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
Fox 5 Atlanta: [Truckers hurt as Georgia diesel prices hit $5 a gallon](https://www.fox5atlanta.com/video/fmc-sz0jc0t9t7hpft26)
`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "1c9035945a851825", "sheet_id": "157"}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as the average price of Lower Atlantic On-Highway Diesel in dollars per gallon for August 31, 2026 according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's [Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/) for or closest to that date.
## Range
The answer must be a number in [4.5, 5.6] (units: $).
## Sub-question decomposition (planner)
- (w=0.30) Will the EIA Lower Atlantic on-highway diesel price for the week closest to August 31, 2026 be at or above $3.40/gal? — Sets the lower bound of the plausible distribution; requires crude to stay near or above current levels and no demand co
- (w=0.30) Will the EIA Lower Atlantic on-highway diesel price for the week closest to August 31, 2026 be at or above $3.75/gal? — Central threshold near the recent trailing level plus modest distillate-tightness drift; largest information content for
- (w=0.20) Will the EIA Lower Atlantic on-highway diesel price for the week closest to August 31, 2026 be at or above $4.25/gal? — Captures upside tail from geopolitical supply disruption, sanctions on Russian diesel, refinery outages, or hurricane im
- (w=0.20) Will Brent crude oil average above $75/bbl during August 2026? — Crude is the dominant driver of retail diesel; the crack spread plus taxes maps crude directly to the Lower Atlantic pum
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | fred_data | STRONG cred 96 | UP | VERY_RECENT] FRED weekly U.S. average on-highway diesel (GASDESW) was $5.348/gal as of 2026-08-03, far above the $3.40 threshold.
2. [sq1 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] National diesel is down only $0.248 year-over-year, indicating a slow decline rather than a collapse toward $3.40.
3. [sq2 | fred_data | STRONG cred 92 | UP | VERY_RECENT] With national diesel at $5.35 on Aug 3, 2026, a fall below $3.75 within four weeks would require an unprecedented ~30% one-month drop.
4. [sq3 | fred_data | STRONG cred 92 | UP | VERY_RECENT] National diesel at $5.35 sits roughly $1.10 above the $4.25 threshold, requiring a ~21% decline by Aug 31, 2026.
5. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | DATED] May 2026 STEO projected U.S. on-highway diesel averaging $4.94/gal in Q3 2026 and $4.73/gal in Q4 2026, both above $4.25.
6. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | DATED] EIA's April/May 2026 STEO revisions attributed elevated 2026 diesel prices to a Strait of Hormuz closure and Middle East disruption.
7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Prices have been declining from an April 2026 peak (~$5.68 national) to $5.35 by early August, a moderating trend.
8. [sq4 | fred_data | STRONG cred 95 | UP | VERY_RECENT] WTI spot was $81.96/bbl on 2026-08-03, implying Brent roughly $85/bbl, well above the $75 threshold.
9. [sq4 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] WTI is down only $1.47 year-over-year, showing crude has stabilized at elevated levels rather than trending sharply lower.
10. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Pre-crisis December 2025 STEO had forecast 2026 U.S. diesel averaging only $3.50/gal, showing how large the geopolitical premium currently is.
11. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Lower Atlantic (PADD 1C) covers FL, GA, NC, SC, VA, WV and historically tracks close to but typically slightly below the national diesel average.
12. [sq3 | code_execution | WEAK cred 20 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The volatility-distribution analysis returned only an 'analysis scaffold' output with no numeric threshold probabilities.
## Cross-Market Signals
### Polymarket
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $504.6K
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.14, Volume: $2.1M
- "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 11?" → Yes: 1.00, Volume: $272.9K
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.36, Volume: $1.1M
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?" → Yes: 0.04, Volume: $251.7K
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026?" → Yes: 0.05, Volume: $204.3K
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?" → Yes: 0.12, Volume: $214.5K
- "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 11?" → Yes: 1.00, Volume: $162.5K
- "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 11?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $145.4K
- "Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $235.2K
Information gaps:
- No direct EIA PADD 1C Lower Atlantic diesel level or its current spread to the national average
- No August 2026 STEO or current Brent futures curve for Aug/Sep 2026
- No base rate for maximum historical 4-week retail diesel declines
- Current status of Strait of Hormuz / Middle East supply disruption unknown
Key uncertainties:
- Whether the geopolitical supply disruption resolves abruptly, crashing crude
- Atlantic hurricane season impact on Gulf/East Coast refining and distribution
- Distillate crack spread and inventory trajectory into September
- Size and stability of Lower Atlantic vs national price differential
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).
(c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.
(d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.
(e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).
(f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).
## Calibration guidance
- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.
- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.
- Don't pile mass at one value — if you're tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.
- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen — don't override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.
- **Relative-return / spread questions ("how much will X's return exceed Y's").** A near-zero median is usually right, but size the TAILS to the more VOLATILE leg, not to a generic 2-3pp spread. Two broad equity indices (e.g. Nasdaq-100 vs S&P 500) do stay within roughly ±2-3pp over a two-week window. But when one leg is a commodity (crude oil, gold) or a single high-beta stock (e.g. Nvidia), the two-week realized spread regularly reaches ±10pp or more — crude-vs-equity spreads have hit ±18pp. In those cases set p10/p90 to at least ±10pp (±15pp or wider for oil) while keeping the median near the status-quo spread; the 2-3pp intuition applies only to index-vs-index.
- **Heavy-tailed one-off magnitudes (opening-weekend box office, product-launch or debut numbers).** Pre-event tracking for these routinely misses by ±40% or more, and results land both far above and far below the consensus. Do NOT treat the displayed [min, max] range as the plausible range or clamp p10/p90 to its edges: the outcome can fall outside the range in either direction (recent opening weekends resolved ~7% above a displayed ceiling in one case and roughly half the displayed floor in another). Set p10/p90 wide enough that a 2x-or-0.5x surprise versus your central estimate still lands inside the interval, and when concrete current tracking disagrees with historical/franchise base rates, weight the tracking.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution — 6-10 sentences total>",
"p10": <number>,
"p25": <number>,
"p50": <number>,
"p75": <number>,
"p90": <number>
}
Percentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 <= p25 <= p50 <= p75 <= p90).
{
"forecast": {
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | fred_data | STRONG cred 96 | UP | VERY_RECENT] FRED weekly U.S. average on-highway diesel (GASDESW) was $5.348/gal as of 2026-08-03, far above the $3.40 threshold.\n2. [sq1 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] National diesel is down only $0.248 year-over-year, indicating a slow decline rather than a collapse toward $3.40.\n3. [sq2 | fred_data | STRONG cred 92 | UP | VERY_RECENT] With national diesel at $5.35 on Aug 3, 2026, a fall below $3.75 within four weeks would require an unprecedented ~30% one-month drop.\n4. [sq3 | fred_data | STRONG cred 92 | UP | VERY_RECENT] National diesel at $5.35 sits roughly $1.10 above the $4.25 threshold, requiring a ~21% decline by Aug 31, 2026.\n5. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | DATED] May 2026 STEO projected U.S. on-highway diesel averaging $4.94/gal in Q3 2026 and $4.73/gal in Q4 2026, both above $4.25.\n6. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | DATED] EIA\u0027s April/May 2026 STEO revisions attributed elevated 2026 diesel prices to a Strait of Hormuz closure and Middle East disruption.\n7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Prices have been declining from an April 2026 peak (~$5.68 national) to $5.35 by early August, a moderating trend.\n8. [sq4 | fred_data | STRONG cred 95 | UP | VERY_RECENT] WTI spot was $81.96/bbl on 2026-08-03, implying Brent roughly $85/bbl, well above the $75 threshold.\n9. [sq4 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] WTI is down only $1.47 year-over-year, showing crude has stabilized at elevated levels rather than trending sharply lower.\n10. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Pre-crisis December 2025 STEO had forecast 2026 U.S. diesel averaging only $3.50/gal, showing how large the geopolitical premium currently is.\n11. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Lower Atlantic (PADD 1C) covers FL, GA, NC, SC, VA, WV and historically tracks close to but typically slightly below the national diesel average.\n12. [sq3 | code_execution | WEAK cred 20 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The volatility-distribution analysis returned only an \u0027analysis scaffold\u0027 output with no numeric threshold probabilities.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $504.6K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.14, Volume: $2.1M\n- \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 11?\" \u2192 Yes: 1.00, Volume: $272.9K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.36, Volume: $1.1M\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.04, Volume: $251.7K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.05, Volume: $204.3K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.12, Volume: $214.5K\n- \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 11?\" \u2192 Yes: 1.00, Volume: $162.5K\n- \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 11?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $145.4K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $235.2K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No direct EIA PADD 1C Lower Atlantic diesel level or its current spread to the national average\n - No August 2026 STEO or current Brent futures curve for Aug/Sep 2026\n - No base rate for maximum historical 4-week retail diesel declines\n - Current status of Strait of Hormuz / Middle East supply disruption unknown\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether the geopolitical supply disruption resolves abruptly, crashing crude\n - Atlantic hurricane season impact on Gulf/East Coast refining and distribution\n - Distillate crack spread and inventory trajectory into September\n - Size and stability of Lower Atlantic vs national price differential",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.\n\n## Question\nWhat will be the average price of diesel in the lower Atlantic U.S. on August 31, 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nFox 5 Atlanta: [Truckers hurt as Georgia diesel prices hit $5 a gallon](https://www.fox5atlanta.com/video/fmc-sz0jc0t9t7hpft26)\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"1c9035945a851825\", \"sheet_id\": \"157\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the average price of Lower Atlantic On-Highway Diesel in dollars per gallon for August 31, 2026 according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration\u0027s [Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/) for or closest to that date.\n\n## Range\nThe answer must be a number in [4.5, 5.6] (units: $).\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n- (w=0.30) Will the EIA Lower Atlantic on-highway diesel price for the week closest to August 31, 2026 be at or above $3.40/gal? \u2014 Sets the lower bound of the plausible distribution; requires crude to stay near or above current levels and no demand co\n- (w=0.30) Will the EIA Lower Atlantic on-highway diesel price for the week closest to August 31, 2026 be at or above $3.75/gal? \u2014 Central threshold near the recent trailing level plus modest distillate-tightness drift; largest information content for\n- (w=0.20) Will the EIA Lower Atlantic on-highway diesel price for the week closest to August 31, 2026 be at or above $4.25/gal? \u2014 Captures upside tail from geopolitical supply disruption, sanctions on Russian diesel, refinery outages, or hurricane im\n- (w=0.20) Will Brent crude oil average above $75/bbl during August 2026? \u2014 Crude is the dominant driver of retail diesel; the crack spread plus taxes maps crude directly to the Lower Atlantic pum\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | fred_data | STRONG cred 96 | UP | VERY_RECENT] FRED weekly U.S. average on-highway diesel (GASDESW) was $5.348/gal as of 2026-08-03, far above the $3.40 threshold.\n2. [sq1 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] National diesel is down only $0.248 year-over-year, indicating a slow decline rather than a collapse toward $3.40.\n3. [sq2 | fred_data | STRONG cred 92 | UP | VERY_RECENT] With national diesel at $5.35 on Aug 3, 2026, a fall below $3.75 within four weeks would require an unprecedented ~30% one-month drop.\n4. [sq3 | fred_data | STRONG cred 92 | UP | VERY_RECENT] National diesel at $5.35 sits roughly $1.10 above the $4.25 threshold, requiring a ~21% decline by Aug 31, 2026.\n5. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | DATED] May 2026 STEO projected U.S. on-highway diesel averaging $4.94/gal in Q3 2026 and $4.73/gal in Q4 2026, both above $4.25.\n6. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | DATED] EIA\u0027s April/May 2026 STEO revisions attributed elevated 2026 diesel prices to a Strait of Hormuz closure and Middle East disruption.\n7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Prices have been declining from an April 2026 peak (~$5.68 national) to $5.35 by early August, a moderating trend.\n8. [sq4 | fred_data | STRONG cred 95 | UP | VERY_RECENT] WTI spot was $81.96/bbl on 2026-08-03, implying Brent roughly $85/bbl, well above the $75 threshold.\n9. [sq4 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] WTI is down only $1.47 year-over-year, showing crude has stabilized at elevated levels rather than trending sharply lower.\n10. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Pre-crisis December 2025 STEO had forecast 2026 U.S. diesel averaging only $3.50/gal, showing how large the geopolitical premium currently is.\n11. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Lower Atlantic (PADD 1C) covers FL, GA, NC, SC, VA, WV and historically tracks close to but typically slightly below the national diesel average.\n12. [sq3 | code_execution | WEAK cred 20 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The volatility-distribution analysis returned only an \u0027analysis scaffold\u0027 output with no numeric threshold probabilities.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $504.6K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.14, Volume: $2.1M\n- \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 11?\" \u2192 Yes: 1.00, Volume: $272.9K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.36, Volume: $1.1M\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.04, Volume: $251.7K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.05, Volume: $204.3K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.12, Volume: $214.5K\n- \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 11?\" \u2192 Yes: 1.00, Volume: $162.5K\n- \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 11?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $145.4K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $235.2K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No direct EIA PADD 1C Lower Atlantic diesel level or its current spread to the national average\n - No August 2026 STEO or current Brent futures curve for Aug/Sep 2026\n - No base rate for maximum historical 4-week retail diesel declines\n - Current status of Strait of Hormuz / Middle East supply disruption unknown\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether the geopolitical supply disruption resolves abruptly, crashing crude\n - Atlantic hurricane season impact on Gulf/East Coast refining and distribution\n - Distillate crack spread and inventory trajectory into September\n - Size and stability of Lower Atlantic vs national price differential\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).\n (c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.\n (d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.\n (e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).\n (f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.\n- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.\n- Don\u0027t pile mass at one value \u2014 if you\u0027re tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.\n- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen \u2014 don\u0027t override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.\n- **Relative-return / spread questions (\"how much will X\u0027s return exceed Y\u0027s\").** A near-zero median is usually right, but size the TAILS to the more VOLATILE leg, not to a generic 2-3pp spread. Two broad equity indices (e.g. Nasdaq-100 vs S\u0026P 500) do stay within roughly \u00b12-3pp over a two-week window. But when one leg is a commodity (crude oil, gold) or a single high-beta stock (e.g. Nvidia), the two-week realized spread regularly reaches \u00b110pp or more \u2014 crude-vs-equity spreads have hit \u00b118pp. In those cases set p10/p90 to at least \u00b110pp (\u00b115pp or wider for oil) while keeping the median near the status-quo spread; the 2-3pp intuition applies only to index-vs-index.\n- **Heavy-tailed one-off magnitudes (opening-weekend box office, product-launch or debut numbers).** Pre-event tracking for these routinely misses by \u00b140% or more, and results land both far above and far below the consensus. Do NOT treat the displayed [min, max] range as the plausible range or clamp p10/p90 to its edges: the outcome can fall outside the range in either direction (recent opening weekends resolved ~7% above a displayed ceiling in one case and roughly half the displayed floor in another). Set p10/p90 wide enough that a 2x-or-0.5x surprise versus your central estimate still lands inside the interval, and when concrete current tracking disagrees with historical/franchise base rates, weight the tracking.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution \u2014 6-10 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"p10\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p25\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p50\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p75\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p90\": \u003cnumber\u003e\n}\n\nPercentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 \u003c= p25 \u003c= p50 \u003c= p75 \u003c= p90).\n",
"models": [
"opus",
"secondary"
],
"p50": 5.165,
"percentiles": {
"0.1": 4.76,
"0.25": 5.01,
"0.5": 5.165,
"0.75": 5.32,
"0.9": 5.470000000000001
},
"rationale": "(a) Resolution is ~4 weeks out from the latest data (Aug 3, 2026), a short horizon for retail fuel prices, which are sticky and lag wholesale moves. (b) Status quo: national on-highway diesel was $5.348 on Aug 3, 2026; Lower Atlantic (PADD 1C) historically tracks the national average closely but slightly below (roughly $0.05-0.15 lower), implying a current Lower Atlantic level near $5.25-5.30. (c) Current trend: prices have eased from an April 2026 peak (~$5.68 national) to $5.35, about $0.08/month, so continuation gives roughly $5.15-5.22 for Lower Atlantic on Aug 31. (d) EIA\u0027s May 2026 STEO put Q3 2026 on-highway diesel at $4.94 (a downward-sloping path, likely too low given current spot levels), while WTI at $82 (Brent ~$85) and only modest YoY declines argue for continued elevated pricing; Polymarket puts ~36% on the Iranian blockade ending by Aug 31, the key downside catalyst. (e) Low scenario: an abrupt end to the Hormuz/Iran disruption in mid-August crashes crude by $15-25/bbl; retail diesel passes through only partially within two weeks, giving roughly $4.70-4.90. (f) High scenario: escalation, a Gulf/Atlantic hurricane hitting refining and East Coast distribution, or a distillate inventory squeeze into September pushes Lower Atlantic to $5.40-5.55. Net: I center near $5.15 with a modest downward skew for the blockade-resolution probability, and wide tails given oil\u0027s volatility and the geopolitical binary."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "economics",
"n_sub_qs": 4,
"n_tools": 4,
"reasoning_approach": "Anchor on the latest EIA Lower Atlantic diesel level and EIA STEO forecast, then build a probability distribution over Aug 2026 outcomes using historical 9-month volatility of retail diesel prices; the threshold sub-questions define the CDF and the crude-oil sub-question cross-checks the central tendency, blended via weighted averaging into a median and spread.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will the EIA Lower Atlantic on-highway diesel price for the week closest to August 31, 2026 be at or above $3.40/gal?",
"rationale": "Sets the lower bound of the plausible distribution; requires crude to stay near or above current levels and no demand collapse.",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will the EIA Lower Atlantic on-highway diesel price for the week closest to August 31, 2026 be at or above $3.75/gal?",
"rationale": "Central threshold near the recent trailing level plus modest distillate-tightness drift; largest information content for the median.",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will the EIA Lower Atlantic on-highway diesel price for the week closest to August 31, 2026 be at or above $4.25/gal?",
"rationale": "Captures upside tail from geopolitical supply disruption, sanctions on Russian diesel, refinery outages, or hurricane impacts on Gulf/Atlantic supply.",
"weight": 0.2
},
{
"id": "sq4",
"question": "Will Brent crude oil average above $75/bbl during August 2026?",
"rationale": "Crude is the dominant driver of retail diesel; the crack spread plus taxes maps crude directly to the Lower Atlantic pump price.",
"weight": 0.2
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_months": 60,
"search_text": "No 2 diesel retail price Lower Atlantic on-highway",
"series_ids": [
"GASDESW",
"DCOILBRENTEU",
"DCOILWTICO",
"WDFUELUSGULF"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "fred_data"
},
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\n# Placeholder: fit lognormal/random-walk on weekly US \u0026 Lower Atlantic diesel prices,\n# estimate distribution of price ~9 months ahead from latest observed level,\n# compute P(\u003e=3.40), P(\u003e=3.75), P(\u003e=4.25) using historical 9-month log-change volatility.\nprint(\u0027analysis scaffold\u0027)",
"description": "Estimate the distribution of Lower Atlantic diesel price ~9 months ahead using historical 9-month log-change volatility (random walk with slight mean reversion), and derive threshold probabilities."
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
},
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"EIA weekly Lower Atlantic on-highway diesel price latest",
"EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook 2026 diesel retail price forecast",
"Brent crude price forecast 2026 EIA STEO"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find the most recent EIA weekly on-highway diesel price for the Lower Atlantic (PADD 1C) region and the US average, plus the latest EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook forecast for retail diesel and Brent crude through 2026. Note any current distillate inventory tightness, refinery closures, sanctions on Russian diesel, or OPEC+ supply changes affecting the 2026 outlook.",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "What will be the average price of diesel in the lower Atlantic U.S. on August 31, 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-08-11T15:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nFox 5 Atlanta: [Truckers hurt as Georgia diesel prices hit $5 a gallon](https://www.fox5atlanta.com/video/fmc-sz0jc0t9t7hpft26)\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"1c9035945a851825\", \"sheet_id\": \"157\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the average price of Lower Atlantic On-Highway Diesel in dollars per gallon for August 31, 2026 according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration\u0027s [Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/) for or closest to that date.",
"open_lower": true,
"open_upper": true,
"q_max": 5.6,
"q_min": 4.5,
"question_type": "numeric",
"title": "What will be the average price of diesel in the lower Atlantic U.S. on August 31, 2026?",
"units": "$"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $504.6K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.14, Volume: $2.1M\n- \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 11?\" \u2192 Yes: 1.00, Volume: $272.9K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.36, Volume: $1.1M\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.04, Volume: $251.7K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.05, Volume: $204.3K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.12, Volume: $214.5K\n- \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 11?\" \u2192 Yes: 1.00, Volume: $162.5K\n- \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 11?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $145.4K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $235.2K",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 4,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 43.54,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "4 series",
"tool_name": "fred_data"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.13,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Estimate the distribution of Lower Atlantic diesel price ~9 ",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 36.41,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "20 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 33.25,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "15 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"error": null,
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "FRED weekly U.S. average on-highway diesel (GASDESW) was $5.348/gal as of 2026-08-03, far above the $3.40 threshold.",
"credibility": 96,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "fred_data",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "National diesel is down only $0.248 year-over-year, indicating a slow decline rather than a collapse toward $3.40.",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "fred_data",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "With national diesel at $5.35 on Aug 3, 2026, a fall below $3.75 within four weeks would require an unprecedented ~30% one-month drop.",
"credibility": 92,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "fred_data",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "National diesel at $5.35 sits roughly $1.10 above the $4.25 threshold, requiring a ~21% decline by Aug 31, 2026.",
"credibility": 92,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "fred_data",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "May 2026 STEO projected U.S. on-highway diesel averaging $4.94/gal in Q3 2026 and $4.73/gal in Q4 2026, both above $4.25.",
"credibility": 88,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "EIA\u0027s April/May 2026 STEO revisions attributed elevated 2026 diesel prices to a Strait of Hormuz closure and Middle East disruption.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Prices have been declining from an April 2026 peak (~$5.68 national) to $5.35 by early August, a moderating trend.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "WTI spot was $81.96/bbl on 2026-08-03, implying Brent roughly $85/bbl, well above the $75 threshold.",
"credibility": 95,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "fred_data",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "WTI is down only $1.47 year-over-year, showing crude has stabilized at elevated levels rather than trending sharply lower.",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "fred_data",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "Pre-crisis December 2025 STEO had forecast 2026 U.S. diesel averaging only $3.50/gal, showing how large the geopolitical premium currently is.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Lower Atlantic (PADD 1C) covers FL, GA, NC, SC, VA, WV and historically tracks close to but typically slightly below the national diesel average.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "The volatility-distribution analysis returned only an \u0027analysis scaffold\u0027 output with no numeric threshold probabilities.",
"credibility": 20,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No direct EIA PADD 1C Lower Atlantic diesel level or its current spread to the national average",
"No August 2026 STEO or current Brent futures curve for Aug/Sep 2026",
"No base rate for maximum historical 4-week retail diesel declines",
"Current status of Strait of Hormuz / Middle East supply disruption unknown"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether the geopolitical supply disruption resolves abruptly, crashing crude",
"Atlantic hurricane season impact on Gulf/East Coast refining and distribution",
"Distillate crack spread and inventory trajectory into September",
"Size and stability of Lower Atlantic vs national price differential"
],
"n_evidence": 12
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 45.72,
"plan": 23.3,
"research": 43.54,
"synthesis": 28.34
}
}