Anchor on the current yield level and its cushion above 5.00%, convert that into a barrier-crossing probability via Monte Carlo with realized daily volatility, then adjust for scheduled August macro catalysts that could trigger a dovish rally; combine the three correlated components as a weighted average.
## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $697.4K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.14, Volume: $1.7M - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.41, Volume: $873.3K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $241.3K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026?" → Yes: 0.03, Volume: $140.2K - "Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $177.3K - "Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?" → Yes: 0.60, Volume: $94.1K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?" → Yes: 0.04, Volume: $55.9K - "Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $75.3K - "Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?" → Yes: 0.34, Volume: $115.4K
1. [sq1 | fred_data | STRONG cred 97 | UP | VERY_RECENT] FRED DGS30 was 5.22% on 2026-08-06, about 22bp above the 5.00% threshold. 2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Yahoo ^TYX closed at 5.21 on August 7, 2026; Trading Economics and CNBC corroborate ~5.20%. 3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Trading Economics notes the 30-year yield rose 13bp over the past month and 35bp year-over-year. 4. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] YCharts reported a lower 30-year reading of 5.17% for Aug 5, 2026, showing minor source dispersion. 5. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CNBC intraday range on Aug 7 was 5.199%–5.227%, implying daily swings of only a few basis points. 6. [sq2 | code_execution | WEAK cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo / realized-volatility computation of barrier-crossing probability failed to execute; no quantitative estimate produced. 7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Daily headlines show yields moving on oil, Mideast risk and jobs data, with repeated day-to-day directional reversals in early August. 8. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] CNBC reported Treasury yields dropped on Aug 7 after a surprise July jobs loss, a potential dovish catalyst. 9. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | RECENT] Fed held rates steady July 30, 2026, and some Fed officials publicly said rate hikes are needed. 10. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | RECENT] BlackRock (July 2026) says markets have flipped from pricing 2026 cuts to pricing multiple hikes this year. 11. [sq3 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 92 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] 30-year TIPS real yield 2.98% and 10-year breakeven 2.25%, with breakevens down 3bp YoY, indicating term-premium rather than inflation-driven yield rise. 12. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 78 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Oil price swings tied to Iran de-escalation/escalation drove multiple multi-basis-point yield moves in the first week of August 2026. ## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $697.4K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.14, Volume: $1.7M - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.41, Volume: $873.3K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $241.3K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026?" → Yes: 0.03, Volume: $140.2K - "Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $177.3K - "Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?" → Yes: 0.60, Volume: $94.1K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?" → Yes: 0.04, Volume: $55.9K - "Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $75.3K - "Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?" → Yes: 0.34, Volume: $115.4K Information gaps: - No computed realized daily volatility of DGS30 or Monte Carlo barrier-crossing estimate - No day-by-day closes for Aug 3–7, 2026 to confirm no sub-5% close already occurred - Base rate: historical frequency of ≥20bp downward moves in the 30-year within a month - August 2026 macro calendar (CPI, Jackson Hole, refunding auctions) not surfaced Key uncertainties: - Whether the surprise July payroll loss triggers a sustained dovish rally - Oil/Mideast geopolitics driving inflation-vs-risk-off cross-currents - Discrepancy between YCharts 5.17% and FRED/Yahoo ~5.21-5.22% - Jackson Hole or new Fed chair Warsh communications shifting term premium
You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates — your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.
## Question
Will the U.S. government's 30-year treasury bond remain in the ≥5% "danger zone" for the entire month of August 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
Yahoo Finance: [The bond market's danger zone is becoming the new normal: Chart of the Day](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/the-bond-markets-danger-zone-is-becoming-the-new-normal-chart-of-the-day-100000676.html)
> The bond market's old ceiling is turning into a floor. The longer it holds, the harder it becomes for stocks to ignore. The 30-year Treasury yield ([^TYX](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ETYX/)) closed above 5% for 14 straight sessions through Friday, its longest run above that level since July 2007. It has finished above the 5% level 29 times this year, already the most in any calendar year since 2007. That is a change from the brief tests that previously pushed the long bond into Wall Street's [danger zone](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/the-long-bond-is-back-in-wall-streets-danger-zone-100000733.html). A drop back below 5% would weaken the warning. Holding above it would suggest the old ceiling is becoming lasting support.
Over the past few years, yields have been as follows:
<iframe src="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1XMzS&width=670&height=475" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="overflow:hidden; width:670px; height:525px;" loading="lazy"></iframe>
`{"format": "metac_reveal_and_close_in_period", "info": {"post_id": 44986, "question_id": 45139}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Yahoo Finance's Treasury Yield 30 Years [Historical Data](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ETYX/history/) or credible sources, the Close yield of each trading day is greater than or equal to 5.00%. 
## Fine Print
This question's information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44986) which opened on 2026-07-31 09:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.
## Sub-question decomposition
- (w=0.35) Is the 30-year Treasury yield's level at the end of July / start of August 2026 comfortably above the threshold (i.e., latest close ≥ 5.10%, giving at least ~10bp of cushion above 5.00%)? — The single strongest predictor of staying above a barrier for a month is the starting distance from that barrier; a clos
- (w=0.35) Based on historical daily volatility of the 30-year yield, is the probability that the minimum daily close over ~21 trading days stays at or above 5.00% (given the current starting level) greater than 50%? — A random-walk / barrier-crossing simulation using realized daily yield-change volatility (~5-7bp/day) directly quantifie
- (w=0.30) Will August 2026 pass without a macro catalyst (dovish Fed signal, soft CPI/payrolls, risk-off flight to quality, or fiscal/supply relief) that pushes the 30-year yield below 5.00% on any close? — Scheduled August events (jobs report, CPI, FOMC minutes, Jackson Hole, quarterly refunding) are the most likely triggers
Combination rule: **weighted_average**
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | fred_data | STRONG cred 97 | UP | VERY_RECENT] FRED DGS30 was 5.22% on 2026-08-06, about 22bp above the 5.00% threshold.
2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Yahoo ^TYX closed at 5.21 on August 7, 2026; Trading Economics and CNBC corroborate ~5.20%.
3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Trading Economics notes the 30-year yield rose 13bp over the past month and 35bp year-over-year.
4. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] YCharts reported a lower 30-year reading of 5.17% for Aug 5, 2026, showing minor source dispersion.
5. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CNBC intraday range on Aug 7 was 5.199%–5.227%, implying daily swings of only a few basis points.
6. [sq2 | code_execution | WEAK cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo / realized-volatility computation of barrier-crossing probability failed to execute; no quantitative estimate produced.
7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Daily headlines show yields moving on oil, Mideast risk and jobs data, with repeated day-to-day directional reversals in early August.
8. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] CNBC reported Treasury yields dropped on Aug 7 after a surprise July jobs loss, a potential dovish catalyst.
9. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | RECENT] Fed held rates steady July 30, 2026, and some Fed officials publicly said rate hikes are needed.
10. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | RECENT] BlackRock (July 2026) says markets have flipped from pricing 2026 cuts to pricing multiple hikes this year.
11. [sq3 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 92 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] 30-year TIPS real yield 2.98% and 10-year breakeven 2.25%, with breakevens down 3bp YoY, indicating term-premium rather than inflation-driven yield rise.
12. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 78 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Oil price swings tied to Iran de-escalation/escalation drove multiple multi-basis-point yield moves in the first week of August 2026.
## Cross-Market Signals
### Polymarket
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $697.4K
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.14, Volume: $1.7M
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.41, Volume: $873.3K
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $241.3K
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026?" → Yes: 0.03, Volume: $140.2K
- "Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $177.3K
- "Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?" → Yes: 0.60, Volume: $94.1K
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?" → Yes: 0.04, Volume: $55.9K
- "Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $75.3K
- "Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?" → Yes: 0.34, Volume: $115.4K
Information gaps:
- No computed realized daily volatility of DGS30 or Monte Carlo barrier-crossing estimate
- No day-by-day closes for Aug 3–7, 2026 to confirm no sub-5% close already occurred
- Base rate: historical frequency of ≥20bp downward moves in the 30-year within a month
- August 2026 macro calendar (CPI, Jackson Hole, refunding auctions) not surfaced
Key uncertainties:
- Whether the surprise July payroll loss triggers a sustained dovish rally
- Oil/Mideast geopolitics driving inflation-vs-risk-off cross-currents
- Discrepancy between YCharts 5.17% and FRED/Yahoo ~5.21-5.22%
- Jackson Hole or new Fed chair Warsh communications shifting term premium
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The status quo outcome — what happens if nothing changes from today.
(c) A brief scenario that results in NO.
(d) A brief scenario that results in YES.
## Calibration guidance
- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition — independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.
- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.
- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid >0.97 or <0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological — overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question — move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.
- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or "very recent" claim — especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility — must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.
- **Also provide a holistic estimate** — your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) (d) above — 5-8 sentences total>",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq2": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq3": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>
},
"holistic_p_yes": <float in [0.01, 0.99] — your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition>,
"what_would_change_my_mind": "<1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%>"
}
{
"forecast": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | fred_data | STRONG cred 97 | UP | VERY_RECENT] FRED DGS30 was 5.22% on 2026-08-06, about 22bp above the 5.00% threshold.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Yahoo ^TYX closed at 5.21 on August 7, 2026; Trading Economics and CNBC corroborate ~5.20%.\n3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Trading Economics notes the 30-year yield rose 13bp over the past month and 35bp year-over-year.\n4. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] YCharts reported a lower 30-year reading of 5.17% for Aug 5, 2026, showing minor source dispersion.\n5. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CNBC intraday range on Aug 7 was 5.199%\u20135.227%, implying daily swings of only a few basis points.\n6. [sq2 | code_execution | WEAK cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo / realized-volatility computation of barrier-crossing probability failed to execute; no quantitative estimate produced.\n7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Daily headlines show yields moving on oil, Mideast risk and jobs data, with repeated day-to-day directional reversals in early August.\n8. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] CNBC reported Treasury yields dropped on Aug 7 after a surprise July jobs loss, a potential dovish catalyst.\n9. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | RECENT] Fed held rates steady July 30, 2026, and some Fed officials publicly said rate hikes are needed.\n10. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | RECENT] BlackRock (July 2026) says markets have flipped from pricing 2026 cuts to pricing multiple hikes this year.\n11. [sq3 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 92 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] 30-year TIPS real yield 2.98% and 10-year breakeven 2.25%, with breakevens down 3bp YoY, indicating term-premium rather than inflation-driven yield rise.\n12. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 78 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Oil price swings tied to Iran de-escalation/escalation drove multiple multi-basis-point yield moves in the first week of August 2026.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $697.4K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.14, Volume: $1.7M\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.41, Volume: $873.3K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $241.3K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.03, Volume: $140.2K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $177.3K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post \u003c40 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.60, Volume: $94.1K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.04, Volume: $55.9K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $75.3K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.34, Volume: $115.4K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No computed realized daily volatility of DGS30 or Monte Carlo barrier-crossing estimate\n - No day-by-day closes for Aug 3\u20137, 2026 to confirm no sub-5% close already occurred\n - Base rate: historical frequency of \u226520bp downward moves in the 30-year within a month\n - August 2026 macro calendar (CPI, Jackson Hole, refunding auctions) not surfaced\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether the surprise July payroll loss triggers a sustained dovish rally\n - Oil/Mideast geopolitics driving inflation-vs-risk-off cross-currents\n - Discrepancy between YCharts 5.17% and FRED/Yahoo ~5.21-5.22%\n - Jackson Hole or new Fed chair Warsh communications shifting term premium",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates \u2014 your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.\n\n## Question\nWill the U.S. government\u0027s 30-year treasury bond remain in the \u22655% \"danger zone\" for the entire month of August 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nYahoo Finance: [The bond market\u0027s danger zone is becoming the new normal: Chart of the Day](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/the-bond-markets-danger-zone-is-becoming-the-new-normal-chart-of-the-day-100000676.html)\n\n\u003e The bond market\u0027s old ceiling is turning into a floor. The longer it holds, the harder it becomes for stocks to ignore. The 30-year Treasury yield ([^TYX](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ETYX/)) closed above 5% for 14 straight sessions through Friday, its longest run above that level since July 2007. It has finished above the 5% level 29 times this year, already the most in any calendar year since 2007. That is a change from the brief tests that previously pushed the long bond into Wall Street\u0027s\u0026nbsp;[danger zone](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/the-long-bond-is-back-in-wall-streets-danger-zone-100000733.html). A drop back below 5% would weaken the warning. Holding above it would suggest the old ceiling is becoming lasting support.\n\nOver the past few years, yields have been as follows:\n\n\u003ciframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1XMzS\u0026width=670\u0026height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:670px; height:525px;\" loading=\"lazy\"\u003e\u003c/iframe\u003e\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 44986, \"question_id\": 45139}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Yahoo Finance\u0027s Treasury Yield 30 Years [Historical Data](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ETYX/history/) or credible sources, the Close yield of each trading day is greater than or equal to 5.00%.\u0026#x20;\n\n## Fine Print\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44986) which opened on 2026-07-31 09:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.\n\n## Sub-question decomposition\n- (w=0.35) Is the 30-year Treasury yield\u0027s level at the end of July / start of August 2026 comfortably above the threshold (i.e., latest close \u2265 5.10%, giving at least ~10bp of cushion above 5.00%)? \u2014 The single strongest predictor of staying above a barrier for a month is the starting distance from that barrier; a clos\n- (w=0.35) Based on historical daily volatility of the 30-year yield, is the probability that the minimum daily close over ~21 trading days stays at or above 5.00% (given the current starting level) greater than 50%? \u2014 A random-walk / barrier-crossing simulation using realized daily yield-change volatility (~5-7bp/day) directly quantifie\n- (w=0.30) Will August 2026 pass without a macro catalyst (dovish Fed signal, soft CPI/payrolls, risk-off flight to quality, or fiscal/supply relief) that pushes the 30-year yield below 5.00% on any close? \u2014 Scheduled August events (jobs report, CPI, FOMC minutes, Jackson Hole, quarterly refunding) are the most likely triggers\n\nCombination rule: **weighted_average**\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | fred_data | STRONG cred 97 | UP | VERY_RECENT] FRED DGS30 was 5.22% on 2026-08-06, about 22bp above the 5.00% threshold.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Yahoo ^TYX closed at 5.21 on August 7, 2026; Trading Economics and CNBC corroborate ~5.20%.\n3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Trading Economics notes the 30-year yield rose 13bp over the past month and 35bp year-over-year.\n4. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] YCharts reported a lower 30-year reading of 5.17% for Aug 5, 2026, showing minor source dispersion.\n5. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CNBC intraday range on Aug 7 was 5.199%\u20135.227%, implying daily swings of only a few basis points.\n6. [sq2 | code_execution | WEAK cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo / realized-volatility computation of barrier-crossing probability failed to execute; no quantitative estimate produced.\n7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Daily headlines show yields moving on oil, Mideast risk and jobs data, with repeated day-to-day directional reversals in early August.\n8. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] CNBC reported Treasury yields dropped on Aug 7 after a surprise July jobs loss, a potential dovish catalyst.\n9. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | RECENT] Fed held rates steady July 30, 2026, and some Fed officials publicly said rate hikes are needed.\n10. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | RECENT] BlackRock (July 2026) says markets have flipped from pricing 2026 cuts to pricing multiple hikes this year.\n11. [sq3 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 92 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] 30-year TIPS real yield 2.98% and 10-year breakeven 2.25%, with breakevens down 3bp YoY, indicating term-premium rather than inflation-driven yield rise.\n12. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 78 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Oil price swings tied to Iran de-escalation/escalation drove multiple multi-basis-point yield moves in the first week of August 2026.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $697.4K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.14, Volume: $1.7M\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.41, Volume: $873.3K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $241.3K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.03, Volume: $140.2K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $177.3K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post \u003c40 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.60, Volume: $94.1K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.04, Volume: $55.9K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $75.3K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.34, Volume: $115.4K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No computed realized daily volatility of DGS30 or Monte Carlo barrier-crossing estimate\n - No day-by-day closes for Aug 3\u20137, 2026 to confirm no sub-5% close already occurred\n - Base rate: historical frequency of \u226520bp downward moves in the 30-year within a month\n - August 2026 macro calendar (CPI, Jackson Hole, refunding auctions) not surfaced\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether the surprise July payroll loss triggers a sustained dovish rally\n - Oil/Mideast geopolitics driving inflation-vs-risk-off cross-currents\n - Discrepancy between YCharts 5.17% and FRED/Yahoo ~5.21-5.22%\n - Jackson Hole or new Fed chair Warsh communications shifting term premium\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The status quo outcome \u2014 what happens if nothing changes from today.\n (c) A brief scenario that results in NO.\n (d) A brief scenario that results in YES.\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition \u2014 independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.\n- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.\n- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid \u003e0.97 or \u003c0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological \u2014 overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.\n- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question \u2014 move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.\n- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or \"very recent\" claim \u2014 especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility \u2014 must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.\n- **Also provide a holistic estimate** \u2014 your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) (b) (c) (d) above \u2014 5-8 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"sub_question_estimates\": {\n \"sq1\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq2\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq3\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e\n },\n \"holistic_p_yes\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99] \u2014 your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition\u003e,\n \"what_would_change_my_mind\": \"\u003c1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%\u003e\"\n}\n",
"holistic_p_yes": 0.66,
"models": [
"opus",
"secondary"
],
"p_yes": 0.72635,
"rationale": "(a) The question was already ~1 week into August 2026 at the time of the latest evidence (Aug 7), leaving roughly 16-17 trading days of exposure through Aug 31. (b) Status quo: the 30-year sits at ~5.20-5.22% (FRED 5.22% on Aug 6, Yahoo ^TYX 5.21 on Aug 7), about 20-22bp of cushion above the 5.00% barrier, with a market backdrop of Fed-hike pricing and elevated term premium \u2014 if nothing changes, the question resolves Yes. (c) NO scenario: the surprise July payroll loss on Aug 7 is confirmed by soft August CPI and dovish Jackson Hole/Fed-chair communication, or an Iran de-escalation collapses oil and triggers a flight-to-quality/disinflation rally; a 20bp+ drop in the long bond over three weeks is a very ordinary move (roughly a 1-sigma decline for the terminal distribution), and a single close at 4.99% kills it. (d) YES scenario: hike-pricing, heavy long-end supply/refunding, and sticky term premium keep the 30-year anchored in the 5.10-5.35% range; even a dovish repricing tends to steepen the curve, cushioning the long end. Barrier math: with ~5-6bp daily change vol, sigma over 17 trading days is ~21-25bp; reflection-principle probability of touching -20bp is ~33-40%, so survival is ~60-67%. I lean modestly above even money, around 0.65, tempered by the recognition that the resolution requires a strictly clean month with no single sub-5.00% close.",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": 0.95,
"sq2": 0.8,
"sq3": 0.68
},
"what_would_change_my_mind": "A confirmed run of closes drifting toward 5.05% or below, or a dovish CPI/Jackson Hole surprise that compresses long-end yields, would push me under 30%; a move to 5.30%+ with hawkish Fed guidance and weak long-bond auctions would push me above 75%."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "economics",
"n_sub_qs": 3,
"n_tools": 4,
"reasoning_approach": "Anchor on the current yield level and its cushion above 5.00%, convert that into a barrier-crossing probability via Monte Carlo with realized daily volatility, then adjust for scheduled August macro catalysts that could trigger a dovish rally; combine the three correlated components as a weighted average.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Is the 30-year Treasury yield\u0027s level at the end of July / start of August 2026 comfortably above the threshold (i.e., latest close \u2265 5.10%, giving at least ~10bp of cushion above 5.00%)?",
"rationale": "The single strongest predictor of staying above a barrier for a month is the starting distance from that barrier; a close of 5.02% is fragile while 5.25% is robust.",
"weight": 0.35
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Based on historical daily volatility of the 30-year yield, is the probability that the minimum daily close over ~21 trading days stays at or above 5.00% (given the current starting level) greater than 50%?",
"rationale": "A random-walk / barrier-crossing simulation using realized daily yield-change volatility (~5-7bp/day) directly quantifies the chance of at least one dip below 5% during the month.",
"weight": 0.35
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will August 2026 pass without a macro catalyst (dovish Fed signal, soft CPI/payrolls, risk-off flight to quality, or fiscal/supply relief) that pushes the 30-year yield below 5.00% on any close?",
"rationale": "Scheduled August events (jobs report, CPI, FOMC minutes, Jackson Hole, quarterly refunding) are the most likely triggers for a decisive downside break through the 5% level.",
"weight": 0.3
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_months": 24,
"series_ids": [
"DGS30",
"DGS10",
"DGS2",
"T10YIE",
"FEDFUNDS",
"DFII30"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "fred_data"
},
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\n# Barrier-crossing simulation: probability 30Y yield stays \u003e=5.00% on every close for ~21 trading days\n# Calibrate sigma from historical daily changes in DGS30 (typ. 5-7 bp/day); test a grid of starting levels.\nnp.random.seed(0)\nn_days=21\nsims=200000\nfor sigma in [0.04,0.05,0.06,0.07]:\n print(\u0027sigma(bp/day)=\u0027,sigma*100)\n for start in [5.00,5.02,5.05,5.10,5.15,5.20,5.30,5.45]:\n # random walk with slight mean reversion=0 drift; also test small drifts\n for drift in [-0.005,0.0,0.005]:\n steps=np.random.normal(drift,sigma,size=(sims,n_days))\n paths=start+np.cumsum(steps,axis=1)\n p=np.mean(paths.min(axis=1)\u003e=5.00)\n print(\u0027 start\u0027,start,\u0027drift/day\u0027,drift,\u0027P(stay\u003e=5%%) = %.3f\u0027%p)\n",
"description": "Monte Carlo barrier-crossing probability that the 30Y yield closes \u003e=5.00% every trading day for a full month, across starting levels, daily vol, and drift assumptions."
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq2",
"sq1"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
},
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"30-year Treasury yield today ^TYX close",
"30 year Treasury yield below 5% August 2026",
"long bond yield outlook Fed rate cut August 2026"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find the most recent daily closing levels of the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield (^TYX / DGS30) for late July and early August 2026, how many consecutive sessions it has closed above 5%, its recent trading range, and the key upcoming August 2026 macro catalysts (CPI, payrolls, FOMC minutes, Jackson Hole, quarterly refunding) and analyst expectations for whether the long bond yield will fall back below 5%.",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "Will the 30-year Treasury yield stay at or above 5% on every trading-day close in August 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-08-10T09:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nYahoo Finance: [The bond market\u0027s danger zone is becoming the new normal: Chart of the Day](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/the-bond-markets-danger-zone-is-becoming-the-new-normal-chart-of-the-day-100000676.html)\n\n\u003e The bond market\u0027s old ceiling is turning into a floor. The longer it holds, the harder it becomes for stocks to ignore. The 30-year Treasury yield ([^TYX](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ETYX/)) closed above 5% for 14 straight sessions through Friday, its longest run above that level since July 2007. It has finished above the 5% level 29 times this year, already the most in any calendar year since 2007. That is a change from the brief tests that previously pushed the long bond into Wall Street\u0027s\u0026nbsp;[danger zone](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/the-long-bond-is-back-in-wall-streets-danger-zone-100000733.html). A drop back below 5% would weaken the warning. Holding above it would suggest the old ceiling is becoming lasting support.\n\nOver the past few years, yields have been as follows:\n\n\u003ciframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1XMzS\u0026width=670\u0026height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:670px; height:525px;\" loading=\"lazy\"\u003e\u003c/iframe\u003e\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 44986, \"question_id\": 45139}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Yahoo Finance\u0027s Treasury Yield 30 Years [Historical Data](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ETYX/history/) or credible sources, the Close yield of each trading day is greater than or equal to 5.00%.\u0026#x20;\n\n## Fine Print\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44986) which opened on 2026-07-31 09:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.",
"question_type": "binary",
"title": "Will the U.S. government\u0027s 30-year treasury bond remain in the \u22655% \"danger zone\" for the entire month of August 2026?"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $697.4K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.14, Volume: $1.7M\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.41, Volume: $873.3K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $241.3K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.03, Volume: $140.2K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $177.3K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post \u003c40 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.60, Volume: $94.1K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.04, Volume: $55.9K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $75.3K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.34, Volume: $115.4K",
"errors": [
"code_execution: Code execution timed out (30s limit)"
],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 1,
"n_tools": 4,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 59.25,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "6 series",
"tool_name": "fred_data"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 30.24,
"error": "Code execution timed out (30s limit)",
"success": false,
"summary": "Monte Carlo barrier-crossing probability that the 30Y yield ",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 28.57,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "20 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 26.36,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "13 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"error": null,
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "FRED DGS30 was 5.22% on 2026-08-06, about 22bp above the 5.00% threshold.",
"credibility": 97,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "fred_data",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Yahoo ^TYX closed at 5.21 on August 7, 2026; Trading Economics and CNBC corroborate ~5.20%.",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Trading Economics notes the 30-year yield rose 13bp over the past month and 35bp year-over-year.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "YCharts reported a lower 30-year reading of 5.17% for Aug 5, 2026, showing minor source dispersion.",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "CNBC intraday range on Aug 7 was 5.199%\u20135.227%, implying daily swings of only a few basis points.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Monte Carlo / realized-volatility computation of barrier-crossing probability failed to execute; no quantitative estimate produced.",
"credibility": 40,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Daily headlines show yields moving on oil, Mideast risk and jobs data, with repeated day-to-day directional reversals in early August.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "CNBC reported Treasury yields dropped on Aug 7 after a surprise July jobs loss, a potential dovish catalyst.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Fed held rates steady July 30, 2026, and some Fed officials publicly said rate hikes are needed.",
"credibility": 88,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "BlackRock (July 2026) says markets have flipped from pricing 2026 cuts to pricing multiple hikes this year.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "30-year TIPS real yield 2.98% and 10-year breakeven 2.25%, with breakevens down 3bp YoY, indicating term-premium rather than inflation-driven yield rise.",
"credibility": 92,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "fred_data",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Oil price swings tied to Iran de-escalation/escalation drove multiple multi-basis-point yield moves in the first week of August 2026.",
"credibility": 78,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No computed realized daily volatility of DGS30 or Monte Carlo barrier-crossing estimate",
"No day-by-day closes for Aug 3\u20137, 2026 to confirm no sub-5% close already occurred",
"Base rate: historical frequency of \u226520bp downward moves in the 30-year within a month",
"August 2026 macro calendar (CPI, Jackson Hole, refunding auctions) not surfaced"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether the surprise July payroll loss triggers a sustained dovish rally",
"Oil/Mideast geopolitics driving inflation-vs-risk-off cross-currents",
"Discrepancy between YCharts 5.17% and FRED/Yahoo ~5.21-5.22%",
"Jackson Hole or new Fed chair Warsh communications shifting term premium"
],
"n_evidence": 12
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 80.79,
"plan": 26.68,
"research": 59.25,
"synthesis": 24.63
}
}