Anchor on the strong seasonal base rate that norovirus wastewater concentrations sit in their annual trough on September 1 (favoring the lowest category), then discount modestly for the probability of an atypical summer surge/new genotype and for the probability the dashboard shows no calculable category ('Other'). Sub-question probabilities blend via weighted average into a probability mass across Low / Medium / High / Other.
## Cross-Market Signals ### Kalshi _Kalshi lookup failed: Client error '429 Too Many Requests' for url 'https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?status=open&limit=100&cursor=CgsI4v3H0wYQiJSMDBI5S1hNVkVTUE9SVFNNVUxUSUdBTUVFWFRFTkRFRC1TMjAyNjY3OEVCMURFRDg2LTFDM0I2OTY2Q0E1' For more information check: https://developer.mozilla.org/en-US/docs/Web/HTTP/Status/429_ ### Polymarket - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $3.7M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $1.7M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.48, Volume: $2.9M - "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.48, Volume: $3.6M
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] WastewaterSCAN's July 2026 update placed national norovirus in the 'LOW' wastewater category, with median concentration down ~45% from June. 2. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 78 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The dashboard's national overview currently shows norovirus 'low' with no trend in the last 21 days. 3. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | UP | RECENT] 2026 trajectory: HIGH in Feb-Apr, MEDIUM in May-June, LOW in July, matching the standard winter-peak/summer-trough seasonal pattern. 4. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 32 | UP | VERY_RECENT] A simple base-rate model using seasonality and scenario weights yields P(Low | system functioning) ≈ 0.875 with wide CI [0.46, 1.0]. 5. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Article search over Feb–Aug 2026 surfaced no reporting of a new dominant norovirus genotype or off-season national surge. 6. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 88 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] A norovirus outbreak on the Ruby Princess (reported June 28, 2026) sickened 125 of 4,176 aboard, showing continued off-season point-source transmission. 7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | DATED] WastewaterSCAN's May 2026 note said concentrations remained elevated across all regions relative to typical summer-fall baselines. 8. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] WWSCAN repeatedly characterized 2025-26 as a slower-starting winter wave resembling 2023-24, i.e., within historical norms. 9. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 82 | UP | RECENT] WastewaterSCAN's dashboard and monthly updates were operational and cited by NBC News and Newsweek in May–June 2026, with a named staff scientist quoted. 10. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | DATED] Norovirus GII RNA was detected in 100% of samples in February and March 2026, indicating routine detection rather than non-detection. 11. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 65 | NEUTRAL | DATED] An infectious disease specialist quoted in May 2026 said nationwide norovirus numbers were about average for that time of year. 12. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 70 | DOWN | RECENT] Reporting notes U.S. public health surveillance infrastructure has been weakened by funding cuts and political upheaval in 2026. ## Cross-Market Signals ### Kalshi _Kalshi lookup failed: Client error '429 Too Many Requests' for url 'https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?status=open&limit=100&cursor=CgsI4v3H0wYQiJSMDBI5S1hNVkVTUE9SVFNNVUxUSUdBTUVFWFRFTkRFRC1TMjAyNjY3OEVCMURFRDg2LTFDM0I2OTY2Q0E1' For more information check: https://developer.mozilla.org/en-US/docs/Web/HTTP/Status/429_ ### Polymarket - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $3.7M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $1.7M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.48, Volume: $2.9M - "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.48, Volume: $3.6M Information gaps: - No year-by-year record of what WWSCAN displayed on Sept 1 in 2022-2025 (direct base rate) - No August 2026 monthly update or data past ~early August - WastewaterSCAN funding/continuity status and site-count trends unknown - No genotype surveillance (GII.17/GII.4) data for summer 2026 Key uncertainties: - Whether an early-onset autumn wave lifts the category before the check date - Possible changes to WWSCAN category thresholds or dashboard design - Timing/lag of the dashboard's 21-day window when Metaculus checks - Small chance of dashboard outage or data-not-calculated state
You are an elite superforecaster. Estimate the probability of each option for this Metaculus multiple-choice question.
## Question
What will be the nationwide wastewater detection category of Norovirus on September 1, 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
NBC News: [Vomiting virus is spreading across most of the U.S.](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/norovirus-gastrointestinal-symptoms-spreading-us-wastewater-rcna347108)
`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "ed4306e19db97bea", "sheet_id": "139"}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as the WastewaterSCAN wastewater national category of norovirus at the [WastewaterSCAN Dashboard](https://data.wastewaterscan.org/) displayed by the site when checked by Metaculus on or after September 1, 2026.
## Fine Print
If the category is Not Detected or Not Calculated (or functional equivalent), the question resolves as Other. In case of accessibility issues with the main resolution source, Metaculus may check the August [monthly update](https://wwscan.ghost.io/) as a backup source. In case of changes to categorization, the question may resolve based on which third the new category falls into. For example, a new category of Very Low would be in the lower third and would be encompassed by the current Low category.
Please note that this question resolves solely according to what the dashboard displays at the time Metaculus checks it, regardless of subsequent revisions, revisions to historical data, reporting delays, or the accuracy of the displayed category.
## Options
- High
- Medium
- Low
- Other
## Sub-question decomposition (planner)
- (w=0.50) Based on norovirus seasonality (winter-peaking pathogen, trough in July-September), will the WastewaterSCAN national norovirus category displayed in early September be in the lowest tier ('Low' or functional equivalent)? — Norovirus wastewater concentrations are strongly seasonal with a deep late-summer trough; the historical base rate for t
- (w=0.30) Will there be an unusual off-season (July-August 2026) norovirus surge — e.g., a new dominant genotype like GII.17 or GII.4 variant — sufficient to push the national category to 'Medium' or higher by September 1, 2026? — The main path away from 'Low' is an atypical summer surge or a novel variant shifting seasonality, as partially occurred
- (w=0.20) Will the WastewaterSCAN dashboard still display a functioning multi-tier national norovirus category (not 'Not Detected'/'Not Calculated'/no data) when checked on or after September 1, 2026? — Funding, methodology, or dashboard changes could cause 'Other' resolution; also determines whether the tier mapping (thi
- (w=0.20) Does the currently observable WastewaterSCAN national norovirus trend and recent category history indicate the same seasonal pattern is holding in 2025-26 (i.e., category returns to Low each summer)? — Confirms the current-cycle behavior of the specific metric and thresholds used by WastewaterSCAN, anchoring the seasonal
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] WastewaterSCAN's July 2026 update placed national norovirus in the 'LOW' wastewater category, with median concentration down ~45% from June.
2. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 78 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The dashboard's national overview currently shows norovirus 'low' with no trend in the last 21 days.
3. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | UP | RECENT] 2026 trajectory: HIGH in Feb-Apr, MEDIUM in May-June, LOW in July, matching the standard winter-peak/summer-trough seasonal pattern.
4. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 32 | UP | VERY_RECENT] A simple base-rate model using seasonality and scenario weights yields P(Low | system functioning) ≈ 0.875 with wide CI [0.46, 1.0].
5. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Article search over Feb–Aug 2026 surfaced no reporting of a new dominant norovirus genotype or off-season national surge.
6. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 88 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] A norovirus outbreak on the Ruby Princess (reported June 28, 2026) sickened 125 of 4,176 aboard, showing continued off-season point-source transmission.
7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | DATED] WastewaterSCAN's May 2026 note said concentrations remained elevated across all regions relative to typical summer-fall baselines.
8. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] WWSCAN repeatedly characterized 2025-26 as a slower-starting winter wave resembling 2023-24, i.e., within historical norms.
9. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 82 | UP | RECENT] WastewaterSCAN's dashboard and monthly updates were operational and cited by NBC News and Newsweek in May–June 2026, with a named staff scientist quoted.
10. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | DATED] Norovirus GII RNA was detected in 100% of samples in February and March 2026, indicating routine detection rather than non-detection.
11. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 65 | NEUTRAL | DATED] An infectious disease specialist quoted in May 2026 said nationwide norovirus numbers were about average for that time of year.
12. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 70 | DOWN | RECENT] Reporting notes U.S. public health surveillance infrastructure has been weakened by funding cuts and political upheaval in 2026.
## Cross-Market Signals
### Kalshi
_Kalshi lookup failed: Client error '429 Too Many Requests' for url 'https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?status=open&limit=100&cursor=CgsI4v3H0wYQiJSMDBI5S1hNVkVTUE9SVFNNVUxUSUdBTUVFWFRFTkRFRC1TMjAyNjY3OEVCMURFRDg2LTFDM0I2OTY2Q0E1'
For more information check: https://developer.mozilla.org/en-US/docs/Web/HTTP/Status/429_
### Polymarket
- "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $3.7M
- "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $1.7M
- "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.48, Volume: $2.9M
- "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.48, Volume: $3.6M
Information gaps:
- No year-by-year record of what WWSCAN displayed on Sept 1 in 2022-2025 (direct base rate)
- No August 2026 monthly update or data past ~early August
- WastewaterSCAN funding/continuity status and site-count trends unknown
- No genotype surveillance (GII.17/GII.4) data for summer 2026
Key uncertainties:
- Whether an early-onset autumn wave lifts the category before the check date
- Possible changes to WWSCAN category thresholds or dashboard design
- Timing/lag of the dashboard's 21-day window when Metaculus checks
- Small chance of dashboard outage or data-not-calculated state
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving probabilities, address these explicitly in your rationale:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The status quo outcome — the option most likely if nothing changes from today.
(c) An outcome that would be SURPRISING but plausible.
## Calibration guidance
- **Status quo anchoring.** Good forecasters put extra weight on the status quo option because the world changes slowly most of the time.
- **Leave moderate probability on most options.** Good forecasters don't drop options to ~0% — leave ≥3-5% on every option to account for unexpected outcomes, unless you have strong specific evidence ruling them out.
- Avoid uniform-distribution laziness — most options are not equally likely.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) for these options appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong prior and stay close to them absent specific contrary evidence.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) above, then explain your distribution — 4-7 sentences total>",
"probabilities": {
"High": <prob>,
"Medium": <prob>,
"Low": <prob>,
"Other": <prob>
}
}
Probabilities MUST sum to ~1.0 (renormalization is applied; close enough is fine).
{
"forecast": {
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] WastewaterSCAN\u0027s July 2026 update placed national norovirus in the \u0027LOW\u0027 wastewater category, with median concentration down ~45% from June.\n2. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 78 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The dashboard\u0027s national overview currently shows norovirus \u0027low\u0027 with no trend in the last 21 days.\n3. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | UP | RECENT] 2026 trajectory: HIGH in Feb-Apr, MEDIUM in May-June, LOW in July, matching the standard winter-peak/summer-trough seasonal pattern.\n4. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 32 | UP | VERY_RECENT] A simple base-rate model using seasonality and scenario weights yields P(Low | system functioning) \u2248 0.875 with wide CI [0.46, 1.0].\n5. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Article search over Feb\u2013Aug 2026 surfaced no reporting of a new dominant norovirus genotype or off-season national surge.\n6. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 88 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] A norovirus outbreak on the Ruby Princess (reported June 28, 2026) sickened 125 of 4,176 aboard, showing continued off-season point-source transmission.\n7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | DATED] WastewaterSCAN\u0027s May 2026 note said concentrations remained elevated across all regions relative to typical summer-fall baselines.\n8. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] WWSCAN repeatedly characterized 2025-26 as a slower-starting winter wave resembling 2023-24, i.e., within historical norms.\n9. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 82 | UP | RECENT] WastewaterSCAN\u0027s dashboard and monthly updates were operational and cited by NBC News and Newsweek in May\u2013June 2026, with a named staff scientist quoted.\n10. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | DATED] Norovirus GII RNA was detected in 100% of samples in February and March 2026, indicating routine detection rather than non-detection.\n11. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 65 | NEUTRAL | DATED] An infectious disease specialist quoted in May 2026 said nationwide norovirus numbers were about average for that time of year.\n12. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 70 | DOWN | RECENT] Reporting notes U.S. public health surveillance infrastructure has been weakened by funding cuts and political upheaval in 2026.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Kalshi\n_Kalshi lookup failed: Client error \u0027429 Too Many Requests\u0027 for url \u0027https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?status=open\u0026limit=100\u0026cursor=CgsI4v3H0wYQiJSMDBI5S1hNVkVTUE9SVFNNVUxUSUdBTUVFWFRFTkRFRC1TMjAyNjY3OEVCMURFRDg2LTFDM0I2OTY2Q0E1\u0027\nFor more information check: https://developer.mozilla.org/en-US/docs/Web/HTTP/Status/429_\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $3.7M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $1.7M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.48, Volume: $2.9M\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.48, Volume: $3.6M\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No year-by-year record of what WWSCAN displayed on Sept 1 in 2022-2025 (direct base rate)\n - No August 2026 monthly update or data past ~early August\n - WastewaterSCAN funding/continuity status and site-count trends unknown\n - No genotype surveillance (GII.17/GII.4) data for summer 2026\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether an early-onset autumn wave lifts the category before the check date\n - Possible changes to WWSCAN category thresholds or dashboard design\n - Timing/lag of the dashboard\u0027s 21-day window when Metaculus checks\n - Small chance of dashboard outage or data-not-calculated state",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Estimate the probability of each option for this Metaculus multiple-choice question.\n\n## Question\nWhat will be the nationwide wastewater detection category of Norovirus on September 1, 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nNBC News: [Vomiting virus is spreading across most of the U.S.](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/norovirus-gastrointestinal-symptoms-spreading-us-wastewater-rcna347108)\r\n\r\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"ed4306e19db97bea\", \"sheet_id\": \"139\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the WastewaterSCAN wastewater national category of norovirus at the [WastewaterSCAN Dashboard](https://data.wastewaterscan.org/) displayed by the site when checked by Metaculus on or after September 1, 2026.\n\n## Fine Print\nIf the category is Not Detected or Not Calculated (or functional equivalent), the question resolves as Other. In case of accessibility issues with the main resolution source, Metaculus may check the August [monthly update](https://wwscan.ghost.io/) as a backup source. In case of changes to categorization, the question may resolve based on which third the new category falls into. For example, a new category of Very Low would be in the lower third and would be encompassed by the current Low category.\r\n\r\nPlease note that this question resolves solely according to what the dashboard displays at the time Metaculus checks it, regardless of subsequent revisions, revisions to historical data, reporting delays, or the accuracy of the displayed category.\n\n## Options\n - High\n - Medium\n - Low\n - Other\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n- (w=0.50) Based on norovirus seasonality (winter-peaking pathogen, trough in July-September), will the WastewaterSCAN national norovirus category displayed in early September be in the lowest tier (\u0027Low\u0027 or functional equivalent)? \u2014 Norovirus wastewater concentrations are strongly seasonal with a deep late-summer trough; the historical base rate for t\n- (w=0.30) Will there be an unusual off-season (July-August 2026) norovirus surge \u2014 e.g., a new dominant genotype like GII.17 or GII.4 variant \u2014 sufficient to push the national category to \u0027Medium\u0027 or higher by September 1, 2026? \u2014 The main path away from \u0027Low\u0027 is an atypical summer surge or a novel variant shifting seasonality, as partially occurred\n- (w=0.20) Will the WastewaterSCAN dashboard still display a functioning multi-tier national norovirus category (not \u0027Not Detected\u0027/\u0027Not Calculated\u0027/no data) when checked on or after September 1, 2026? \u2014 Funding, methodology, or dashboard changes could cause \u0027Other\u0027 resolution; also determines whether the tier mapping (thi\n- (w=0.20) Does the currently observable WastewaterSCAN national norovirus trend and recent category history indicate the same seasonal pattern is holding in 2025-26 (i.e., category returns to Low each summer)? \u2014 Confirms the current-cycle behavior of the specific metric and thresholds used by WastewaterSCAN, anchoring the seasonal\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] WastewaterSCAN\u0027s July 2026 update placed national norovirus in the \u0027LOW\u0027 wastewater category, with median concentration down ~45% from June.\n2. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 78 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The dashboard\u0027s national overview currently shows norovirus \u0027low\u0027 with no trend in the last 21 days.\n3. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | UP | RECENT] 2026 trajectory: HIGH in Feb-Apr, MEDIUM in May-June, LOW in July, matching the standard winter-peak/summer-trough seasonal pattern.\n4. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 32 | UP | VERY_RECENT] A simple base-rate model using seasonality and scenario weights yields P(Low | system functioning) \u2248 0.875 with wide CI [0.46, 1.0].\n5. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Article search over Feb\u2013Aug 2026 surfaced no reporting of a new dominant norovirus genotype or off-season national surge.\n6. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 88 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] A norovirus outbreak on the Ruby Princess (reported June 28, 2026) sickened 125 of 4,176 aboard, showing continued off-season point-source transmission.\n7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | DATED] WastewaterSCAN\u0027s May 2026 note said concentrations remained elevated across all regions relative to typical summer-fall baselines.\n8. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] WWSCAN repeatedly characterized 2025-26 as a slower-starting winter wave resembling 2023-24, i.e., within historical norms.\n9. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 82 | UP | RECENT] WastewaterSCAN\u0027s dashboard and monthly updates were operational and cited by NBC News and Newsweek in May\u2013June 2026, with a named staff scientist quoted.\n10. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | DATED] Norovirus GII RNA was detected in 100% of samples in February and March 2026, indicating routine detection rather than non-detection.\n11. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 65 | NEUTRAL | DATED] An infectious disease specialist quoted in May 2026 said nationwide norovirus numbers were about average for that time of year.\n12. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 70 | DOWN | RECENT] Reporting notes U.S. public health surveillance infrastructure has been weakened by funding cuts and political upheaval in 2026.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Kalshi\n_Kalshi lookup failed: Client error \u0027429 Too Many Requests\u0027 for url \u0027https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?status=open\u0026limit=100\u0026cursor=CgsI4v3H0wYQiJSMDBI5S1hNVkVTUE9SVFNNVUxUSUdBTUVFWFRFTkRFRC1TMjAyNjY3OEVCMURFRDg2LTFDM0I2OTY2Q0E1\u0027\nFor more information check: https://developer.mozilla.org/en-US/docs/Web/HTTP/Status/429_\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $3.7M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $1.7M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.48, Volume: $2.9M\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.48, Volume: $3.6M\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No year-by-year record of what WWSCAN displayed on Sept 1 in 2022-2025 (direct base rate)\n - No August 2026 monthly update or data past ~early August\n - WastewaterSCAN funding/continuity status and site-count trends unknown\n - No genotype surveillance (GII.17/GII.4) data for summer 2026\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether an early-onset autumn wave lifts the category before the check date\n - Possible changes to WWSCAN category thresholds or dashboard design\n - Timing/lag of the dashboard\u0027s 21-day window when Metaculus checks\n - Small chance of dashboard outage or data-not-calculated state\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving probabilities, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The status quo outcome \u2014 the option most likely if nothing changes from today.\n (c) An outcome that would be SURPRISING but plausible.\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Status quo anchoring.** Good forecasters put extra weight on the status quo option because the world changes slowly most of the time.\n- **Leave moderate probability on most options.** Good forecasters don\u0027t drop options to ~0% \u2014 leave \u22653-5% on every option to account for unexpected outcomes, unless you have strong specific evidence ruling them out.\n- Avoid uniform-distribution laziness \u2014 most options are not equally likely.\n- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) for these options appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong prior and stay close to them absent specific contrary evidence.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) (b) (c) above, then explain your distribution \u2014 4-7 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"probabilities\": {\n \"High\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Medium\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Low\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Other\": \u003cprob\u003e\n }\n}\n\nProbabilities MUST sum to ~1.0 (renormalization is applied; close enough is fine).\n",
"models": [
"opus",
"secondary"
],
"probabilities": {
"High": 0.035,
"Low": 0.795,
"Medium": 0.12,
"Other": 0.05
},
"rationale": "(a) Resolution is on/just after September 1, 2026, with current data through roughly early August 2026 \u2014 only a few weeks of uncertainty remain. (b) Status quo is \u0027Low\u0027: the July 2026 WastewaterSCAN update placed national norovirus in the LOW category with concentrations down ~45% from June, and the dashboard currently shows \u0027low\u0027 with no trend over the last 21 days; September 1 sits squarely in the seasonal trough before the autumn/winter climb typically begins in October-November. (c) A surprising but plausible outcome would be an early autumn wave or a novel genotype (e.g., GII.17-type shift) pushing the category to Medium by late August, or a dashboard/funding disruption producing \u0027Not Calculated\u0027 \u2014 the latter is nontrivial given reported 2026 cuts to U.S. surveillance infrastructure, though WWSCAN was clearly operational and media-cited through mid-2026. High is very unlikely given the depth of the trough and that the 2025-26 season was described as a slower-starting, historically normal wave. I put most weight on Low, a modest tail on Medium for an unusually early rise or threshold/lag artifacts, and small tails on Other (dashboard/category disruption) and High.",
"top_option": "Low"
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "health",
"n_sub_qs": 4,
"n_tools": 4,
"reasoning_approach": "Anchor on the strong seasonal base rate that norovirus wastewater concentrations sit in their annual trough on September 1 (favoring the lowest category), then discount modestly for the probability of an atypical summer surge/new genotype and for the probability the dashboard shows no calculable category (\u0027Other\u0027). Sub-question probabilities blend via weighted average into a probability mass across Low / Medium / High / Other.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Based on norovirus seasonality (winter-peaking pathogen, trough in July-September), will the WastewaterSCAN national norovirus category displayed in early September be in the lowest tier (\u0027Low\u0027 or functional equivalent)?",
"rationale": "Norovirus wastewater concentrations are strongly seasonal with a deep late-summer trough; the historical base rate for the September category is the dominant driver.",
"weight": 0.5
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will there be an unusual off-season (July-August 2026) norovirus surge \u2014 e.g., a new dominant genotype like GII.17 or GII.4 variant \u2014 sufficient to push the national category to \u0027Medium\u0027 or higher by September 1, 2026?",
"rationale": "The main path away from \u0027Low\u0027 is an atypical summer surge or a novel variant shifting seasonality, as partially occurred in 2024-25 with GII.17.",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will the WastewaterSCAN dashboard still display a functioning multi-tier national norovirus category (not \u0027Not Detected\u0027/\u0027Not Calculated\u0027/no data) when checked on or after September 1, 2026?",
"rationale": "Funding, methodology, or dashboard changes could cause \u0027Other\u0027 resolution; also determines whether the tier mapping (thirds) stays intact.",
"weight": 0.2
},
{
"id": "sq4",
"question": "Does the currently observable WastewaterSCAN national norovirus trend and recent category history indicate the same seasonal pattern is holding in 2025-26 (i.e., category returns to Low each summer)?",
"rationale": "Confirms the current-cycle behavior of the specific metric and thresholds used by WastewaterSCAN, anchoring the seasonal base rate.",
"weight": 0.2
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"WastewaterSCAN dashboard norovirus national category current",
"WastewaterSCAN norovirus wastewater levels 2025 2026 summer low",
"wwscan.ghost.io monthly update norovirus"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find the current and historical WastewaterSCAN national wastewater category for norovirus (categories such as Low/Medium/High), especially what category it showed in July-September of 2023, 2024, and 2025, and the seasonal pattern of norovirus in US wastewater. Also check for any new norovirus genotype (e.g., GII.17) causing off-season or summer surges, and whether WastewaterSCAN funding/dashboard is at risk of discontinuation or methodology change.",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "What will be the nationwide wastewater detection category of Norovirus on September 1, 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_days": 180,
"queries": [
"norovirus outbreak wastewater levels United States",
"norovirus GII.17 variant new strain season",
"CDC NoroSTAT norovirus activity summer"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq2"
],
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\n# Base-rate model: norovirus is strongly winter-seasonal; Sept 1 sits in the annual trough.\n# Assume historical Sept category observations (WastewaterSCAN national): Low in nearly all years.\nyears_low = 3 # e.g., 2023, 2024, 2025 Sept all Low\nyears_total = 3\n# Laplace / Jeffreys smoothing for probability Sept category = Low, given category system intact\nfrom scipy.stats import beta\na, b = years_low + 0.5, (years_total - years_low) + 0.5\np_low_given_intact = beta.mean(a, b)\nprint(\u0027P(Low | system intact), Jeffreys:\u0027, round(p_low_given_intact,3))\nprint(\u002795% CI:\u0027, np.round(beta.ppf([0.025,0.975], a, b),3))\n# Scenario weights\np_intact = 0.90 # dashboard operational with multi-tier categories\np_offseason_surge = 0.10 # atypical summer surge pushing to Medium+\np_low = p_intact * (1-p_offseason_surge) * 0.95 + p_intact*p_offseason_surge*0.15\np_med = p_intact * (p_offseason_surge*0.75 + (1-p_offseason_surge)*0.05)\np_high = p_intact * p_offseason_surge*0.10\np_other = 1 - p_intact\ntot = p_low+p_med+p_high+p_other\nprint({\u0027Low\u0027:round(p_low/tot,3),\u0027Medium\u0027:round(p_med/tot,3),\u0027High\u0027:round(p_high/tot,3),\u0027Other\u0027:round(p_other/tot,3)})",
"description": "Estimate base rate for September norovirus wastewater category using seasonality and scenario weights"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-08-04T18:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nNBC News: [Vomiting virus is spreading across most of the U.S.](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/norovirus-gastrointestinal-symptoms-spreading-us-wastewater-rcna347108)\r\n\r\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"ed4306e19db97bea\", \"sheet_id\": \"139\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the WastewaterSCAN wastewater national category of norovirus at the [WastewaterSCAN Dashboard](https://data.wastewaterscan.org/) displayed by the site when checked by Metaculus on or after September 1, 2026.\n\n## Fine Print\nIf the category is Not Detected or Not Calculated (or functional equivalent), the question resolves as Other. In case of accessibility issues with the main resolution source, Metaculus may check the August [monthly update](https://wwscan.ghost.io/) as a backup source. In case of changes to categorization, the question may resolve based on which third the new category falls into. For example, a new category of Very Low would be in the lower third and would be encompassed by the current Low category.\r\n\r\nPlease note that this question resolves solely according to what the dashboard displays at the time Metaculus checks it, regardless of subsequent revisions, revisions to historical data, reporting delays, or the accuracy of the displayed category.",
"options": [
"High",
"Medium",
"Low",
"Other"
],
"question_type": "multiple_choice",
"title": "What will be the nationwide wastewater detection category of Norovirus on September 1, 2026?"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Kalshi\n_Kalshi lookup failed: Client error \u0027429 Too Many Requests\u0027 for url \u0027https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?status=open\u0026limit=100\u0026cursor=CgsI4v3H0wYQiJSMDBI5S1hNVkVTUE9SVFNNVUxUSUdBTUVFWFRFTkRFRC1TMjAyNjY3OEVCMURFRDg2LTFDM0I2OTY2Q0E1\u0027\nFor more information check: https://developer.mozilla.org/en-US/docs/Web/HTTP/Status/429_\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $3.7M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $1.7M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.48, Volume: $2.9M\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.48, Volume: $3.6M",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 4,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 25.45,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "0 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 37.66,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "15 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.72,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "28 articles",
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.26,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Estimate base rate for September norovirus wastewater catego",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "WastewaterSCAN\u0027s July 2026 update placed national norovirus in the \u0027LOW\u0027 wastewater category, with median concentration down ~45% from June.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "The dashboard\u0027s national overview currently shows norovirus \u0027low\u0027 with no trend in the last 21 days.",
"credibility": 78,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "2026 trajectory: HIGH in Feb-Apr, MEDIUM in May-June, LOW in July, matching the standard winter-peak/summer-trough seasonal pattern.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "A simple base-rate model using seasonality and scenario weights yields P(Low | system functioning) \u2248 0.875 with wide CI [0.46, 1.0].",
"credibility": 32,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Article search over Feb\u2013Aug 2026 surfaced no reporting of a new dominant norovirus genotype or off-season national surge.",
"credibility": 55,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "A norovirus outbreak on the Ruby Princess (reported June 28, 2026) sickened 125 of 4,176 aboard, showing continued off-season point-source transmission.",
"credibility": 88,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "WastewaterSCAN\u0027s May 2026 note said concentrations remained elevated across all regions relative to typical summer-fall baselines.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "WWSCAN repeatedly characterized 2025-26 as a slower-starting winter wave resembling 2023-24, i.e., within historical norms.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "WastewaterSCAN\u0027s dashboard and monthly updates were operational and cited by NBC News and Newsweek in May\u2013June 2026, with a named staff scientist quoted.",
"credibility": 82,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Norovirus GII RNA was detected in 100% of samples in February and March 2026, indicating routine detection rather than non-detection.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "An infectious disease specialist quoted in May 2026 said nationwide norovirus numbers were about average for that time of year.",
"credibility": 65,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Reporting notes U.S. public health surveillance infrastructure has been weakened by funding cuts and political upheaval in 2026.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No year-by-year record of what WWSCAN displayed on Sept 1 in 2022-2025 (direct base rate)",
"No August 2026 monthly update or data past ~early August",
"WastewaterSCAN funding/continuity status and site-count trends unknown",
"No genotype surveillance (GII.17/GII.4) data for summer 2026"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether an early-onset autumn wave lifts the category before the check date",
"Possible changes to WWSCAN category thresholds or dashboard design",
"Timing/lag of the dashboard\u0027s 21-day window when Metaculus checks",
"Small chance of dashboard outage or data-not-calculated state"
],
"n_evidence": 12
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 23.23,
"plan": 28.72,
"research": 37.67,
"synthesis": 30.08
}
}