Anchor on the latest observed 30Y-10Y spread from FRED, then widen it into a distribution via a random-walk/mild-mean-reversion simulation calibrated to historical spread volatility over a ~10-month horizon; the sub-question probabilities (drift direction, upper tail >80bp, lower tail <50bp, Fed easing path) shift the median and skew of that distribution via weighted averaging.
## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $203.3K - "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?" → Yes: 1.00, Volume: $182.8K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.14, Volume: $402.5K - "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.04, Volume: $3.4M - "Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?" → Yes: 0.07, Volume: $225.7K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.36, Volume: $567.9K - "Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?" → Yes: 0.05, Volume: $155.1K
1. [sq1 | fred_data | STRONG cred 97 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] FRED shows DGS30 at 5.21% and DGS10 at 4.68% on 2026-07-30, implying a 30Y-10Y spread of about 53 bp. 2. [sq1 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Both DGS30 and DGS10 rose +13 bp year-over-year, leaving the 30Y-10Y spread essentially unchanged versus a year earlier. 3. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | DATED] After the June 2026 FOMC hold, markets brought forward first-rate-hike expectations under Chair Warsh and BofA forecast further curve flattening. 4. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 50 | UP | DATED] The Connect Money thesis attributes recent NOB widening to structural, policy and technical forces (deficits, long-end supply, term premium). 5. [sq1 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The 10-year term premium proxy THREEFYTP10 stood at 0.84 on 2026-07-24, up ~7 bp year-over-year, indicating elevated and rising long-end risk compensation. 6. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Simulations starting near 55-65 bp with 9-10 month horizons give P(spread >80 bp) of roughly 5-26% and P(<50 bp) of roughly 22-43%. 7. [sq2 | code_execution | STRONG cred 75 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] The simulation was calibrated to a ~9-10 month horizon, but the actual gap from the latest FRED data (2026-07-30) to resolution (2026-08-31) is only about one month. 8. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] 30-year yield hit 5.2%, its highest since 2007, driven by Iran-war inflation fears, oil above $100 and deficit concerns; 10Y also topped 4.7% with strategists eyeing 5%. 9. [sq3 | fred_data | STRONG cred 95 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The current ~53 bp spread sits only about 3 bp above the 50 bp threshold, so small daily moves determine sq3's outcome. 10. [sq3 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 92 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] T10Y2Y was 0.47 on 2026-07-31 with DGS2 at 4.23%, showing a modestly upward-sloping curve across both 2s10s and 10s30s segments. 11. [sq4 | fred_data | STRONG cred 95 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] The fed funds target upper bound was 3.75% as of 2026-08-03, unchanged year-over-year, with effective FEDFUNDS at 3.63% in June 2026. 12. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 82 | DOWN | RECENT] Reporting through July 2026 describes inflation fears and hike expectations rather than easing, with the Fed holding steady at its June meeting. ## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $203.3K - "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?" → Yes: 1.00, Volume: $182.8K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.14, Volume: $402.5K - "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.04, Volume: $3.4M - "Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?" → Yes: 0.07, Volume: $225.7K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.36, Volume: $567.9K - "Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?" → Yes: 0.05, Volume: $155.1K Information gaps: - No base rate for 1-month absolute changes in the 30Y-10Y spread (typical sd likely ~5-12 bp) - No FRED data for 2026-07-31 through 2026-08-03 (latest daily spread level) - FOMC calendar: whether any meeting occurs between early Aug and Aug 31, 2026 - No market/Kalshi pricing or dealer forecasts for the NOB spread Key uncertainties: - Iran/Strait of Hormuz oil shock path and inflation prints - Warsh Fed leaning hawkish (hike) vs. any growth-driven pivot - August Treasury refunding / long-end supply announcements - Whether the recent equal move in 10Y and 30Y yields persists or bear-steepens
You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.
## Question
What will be the NOB spread on August 31, 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
Connect Money [NOB Spread Steepening Signals Structural Reset in Long-End Rates](https://www.connectmoney.com/stories/nob-spread-steepening-signals-structural-reset-in-long-end-rates/): "The widening of the NOB spread—the relative steepening of the 30-year yield over the 10-year yield—is one of the most important, yet often overlooked, bond market signals of the past several months, and understanding its drivers requires unpacking structural, policy, and technical forces"
`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "567de1163ce4d5f4", "sheet_id": "145"}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as the difference, in basis points, between the yield on 30-Year U.S. Treasury Securities on August 31, 2026 as presented by FRED at [DGS30](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS30) and the yield on 10-Year U.S. Treasury Securities on that date as presented by FRED at [DGS10](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10).
## Fine Print
If no value for the date is published by FRED, the most recent available value from an earlier day will be used.
## Range
The answer must be a number in [24.5, 75.5] (units: basis points).
## Sub-question decomposition (planner)
- (w=0.35) Will the 30Y-10Y Treasury spread (DGS30 minus DGS10) on August 31, 2026 be wider than its level on the most recent available date at the time of forecasting? — The current spread is the dominant anchor; whether the drift is toward further steepening or partial re-flattening sets
- (w=0.25) Will the 30Y-10Y spread on August 31, 2026 exceed 80 basis points? — Tests the upper-tail steepening scenario driven by fiscal supply, term-premium rebuild, and aggressive Fed easing with a
- (w=0.20) Will the 30Y-10Y spread on August 31, 2026 be below 50 basis points? — Tests the flattening tail: recession/flight-to-quality bid for duration, fiscal consolidation, or Treasury shifting issu
- (w=0.20) Will the Federal Reserve cut the target federal funds rate by at least 50 bp cumulatively between now and August 2026? — Front-end easing plus long-end term premium is the classic bear/bull-steepening driver; the 30s-10s segment steepens mod
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | fred_data | STRONG cred 97 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] FRED shows DGS30 at 5.21% and DGS10 at 4.68% on 2026-07-30, implying a 30Y-10Y spread of about 53 bp.
2. [sq1 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Both DGS30 and DGS10 rose +13 bp year-over-year, leaving the 30Y-10Y spread essentially unchanged versus a year earlier.
3. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | DATED] After the June 2026 FOMC hold, markets brought forward first-rate-hike expectations under Chair Warsh and BofA forecast further curve flattening.
4. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 50 | UP | DATED] The Connect Money thesis attributes recent NOB widening to structural, policy and technical forces (deficits, long-end supply, term premium).
5. [sq1 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The 10-year term premium proxy THREEFYTP10 stood at 0.84 on 2026-07-24, up ~7 bp year-over-year, indicating elevated and rising long-end risk compensation.
6. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Simulations starting near 55-65 bp with 9-10 month horizons give P(spread >80 bp) of roughly 5-26% and P(<50 bp) of roughly 22-43%.
7. [sq2 | code_execution | STRONG cred 75 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] The simulation was calibrated to a ~9-10 month horizon, but the actual gap from the latest FRED data (2026-07-30) to resolution (2026-08-31) is only about one month.
8. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] 30-year yield hit 5.2%, its highest since 2007, driven by Iran-war inflation fears, oil above $100 and deficit concerns; 10Y also topped 4.7% with strategists eyeing 5%.
9. [sq3 | fred_data | STRONG cred 95 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The current ~53 bp spread sits only about 3 bp above the 50 bp threshold, so small daily moves determine sq3's outcome.
10. [sq3 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 92 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] T10Y2Y was 0.47 on 2026-07-31 with DGS2 at 4.23%, showing a modestly upward-sloping curve across both 2s10s and 10s30s segments.
11. [sq4 | fred_data | STRONG cred 95 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] The fed funds target upper bound was 3.75% as of 2026-08-03, unchanged year-over-year, with effective FEDFUNDS at 3.63% in June 2026.
12. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 82 | DOWN | RECENT] Reporting through July 2026 describes inflation fears and hike expectations rather than easing, with the Fed holding steady at its June meeting.
## Cross-Market Signals
### Polymarket
- "Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $203.3K
- "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?" → Yes: 1.00, Volume: $182.8K
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.14, Volume: $402.5K
- "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.04, Volume: $3.4M
- "Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?" → Yes: 0.07, Volume: $225.7K
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.36, Volume: $567.9K
- "Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?" → Yes: 0.05, Volume: $155.1K
Information gaps:
- No base rate for 1-month absolute changes in the 30Y-10Y spread (typical sd likely ~5-12 bp)
- No FRED data for 2026-07-31 through 2026-08-03 (latest daily spread level)
- FOMC calendar: whether any meeting occurs between early Aug and Aug 31, 2026
- No market/Kalshi pricing or dealer forecasts for the NOB spread
Key uncertainties:
- Iran/Strait of Hormuz oil shock path and inflation prints
- Warsh Fed leaning hawkish (hike) vs. any growth-driven pivot
- August Treasury refunding / long-end supply announcements
- Whether the recent equal move in 10Y and 30Y yields persists or bear-steepens
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).
(c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.
(d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.
(e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).
(f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).
## Calibration guidance
- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.
- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.
- Don't pile mass at one value — if you're tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.
- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen — don't override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.
- **Relative-return / spread questions ("how much will X's return exceed Y's").** A near-zero median is usually right, but size the TAILS to the more VOLATILE leg, not to a generic 2-3pp spread. Two broad equity indices (e.g. Nasdaq-100 vs S&P 500) do stay within roughly ±2-3pp over a two-week window. But when one leg is a commodity (crude oil, gold) or a single high-beta stock (e.g. Nvidia), the two-week realized spread regularly reaches ±10pp or more — crude-vs-equity spreads have hit ±18pp. In those cases set p10/p90 to at least ±10pp (±15pp or wider for oil) while keeping the median near the status-quo spread; the 2-3pp intuition applies only to index-vs-index.
- **Heavy-tailed one-off magnitudes (opening-weekend box office, product-launch or debut numbers).** Pre-event tracking for these routinely misses by ±40% or more, and results land both far above and far below the consensus. Do NOT treat the displayed [min, max] range as the plausible range or clamp p10/p90 to its edges: the outcome can fall outside the range in either direction (recent opening weekends resolved ~7% above a displayed ceiling in one case and roughly half the displayed floor in another). Set p10/p90 wide enough that a 2x-or-0.5x surprise versus your central estimate still lands inside the interval, and when concrete current tracking disagrees with historical/franchise base rates, weight the tracking.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution — 6-10 sentences total>",
"p10": <number>,
"p25": <number>,
"p50": <number>,
"p75": <number>,
"p90": <number>
}
Percentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 <= p25 <= p50 <= p75 <= p90).
{
"forecast": {
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | fred_data | STRONG cred 97 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] FRED shows DGS30 at 5.21% and DGS10 at 4.68% on 2026-07-30, implying a 30Y-10Y spread of about 53 bp.\n2. [sq1 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Both DGS30 and DGS10 rose +13 bp year-over-year, leaving the 30Y-10Y spread essentially unchanged versus a year earlier.\n3. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | DATED] After the June 2026 FOMC hold, markets brought forward first-rate-hike expectations under Chair Warsh and BofA forecast further curve flattening.\n4. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 50 | UP | DATED] The Connect Money thesis attributes recent NOB widening to structural, policy and technical forces (deficits, long-end supply, term premium).\n5. [sq1 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The 10-year term premium proxy THREEFYTP10 stood at 0.84 on 2026-07-24, up ~7 bp year-over-year, indicating elevated and rising long-end risk compensation.\n6. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Simulations starting near 55-65 bp with 9-10 month horizons give P(spread \u003e80 bp) of roughly 5-26% and P(\u003c50 bp) of roughly 22-43%.\n7. [sq2 | code_execution | STRONG cred 75 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] The simulation was calibrated to a ~9-10 month horizon, but the actual gap from the latest FRED data (2026-07-30) to resolution (2026-08-31) is only about one month.\n8. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] 30-year yield hit 5.2%, its highest since 2007, driven by Iran-war inflation fears, oil above $100 and deficit concerns; 10Y also topped 4.7% with strategists eyeing 5%.\n9. [sq3 | fred_data | STRONG cred 95 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The current ~53 bp spread sits only about 3 bp above the 50 bp threshold, so small daily moves determine sq3\u0027s outcome.\n10. [sq3 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 92 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] T10Y2Y was 0.47 on 2026-07-31 with DGS2 at 4.23%, showing a modestly upward-sloping curve across both 2s10s and 10s30s segments.\n11. [sq4 | fred_data | STRONG cred 95 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] The fed funds target upper bound was 3.75% as of 2026-08-03, unchanged year-over-year, with effective FEDFUNDS at 3.63% in June 2026.\n12. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 82 | DOWN | RECENT] Reporting through July 2026 describes inflation fears and hike expectations rather than easing, with the Fed holding steady at its June meeting.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $203.3K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 1.00, Volume: $182.8K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.14, Volume: $402.5K\n- \"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.04, Volume: $3.4M\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.07, Volume: $225.7K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.36, Volume: $567.9K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.05, Volume: $155.1K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No base rate for 1-month absolute changes in the 30Y-10Y spread (typical sd likely ~5-12 bp)\n - No FRED data for 2026-07-31 through 2026-08-03 (latest daily spread level)\n - FOMC calendar: whether any meeting occurs between early Aug and Aug 31, 2026\n - No market/Kalshi pricing or dealer forecasts for the NOB spread\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Iran/Strait of Hormuz oil shock path and inflation prints\n - Warsh Fed leaning hawkish (hike) vs. any growth-driven pivot\n - August Treasury refunding / long-end supply announcements\n - Whether the recent equal move in 10Y and 30Y yields persists or bear-steepens",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.\n\n## Question\nWhat will be the NOB spread on August 31, 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nConnect Money [NOB Spread Steepening Signals Structural Reset in Long-End Rates](https://www.connectmoney.com/stories/nob-spread-steepening-signals-structural-reset-in-long-end-rates/): \"The widening of the NOB spread\u2014the relative steepening of the 30-year yield over the 10-year yield\u2014is one of the most important, yet often overlooked, bond market signals of the past several months, and understanding its drivers requires unpacking structural, policy, and technical forces\"\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"567de1163ce4d5f4\", \"sheet_id\": \"145\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the difference, in basis points, between the yield on 30-Year U.S. Treasury Securities on August 31, 2026 as presented by FRED at [DGS30](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS30) and the yield on 10-Year U.S. Treasury Securities on that date as presented by FRED at [DGS10](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10).\n\n## Fine Print\nIf no value for the date is published by FRED, the most recent available value from an earlier day will be used.\n\n## Range\nThe answer must be a number in [24.5, 75.5] (units: basis points).\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n- (w=0.35) Will the 30Y-10Y Treasury spread (DGS30 minus DGS10) on August 31, 2026 be wider than its level on the most recent available date at the time of forecasting? \u2014 The current spread is the dominant anchor; whether the drift is toward further steepening or partial re-flattening sets \n- (w=0.25) Will the 30Y-10Y spread on August 31, 2026 exceed 80 basis points? \u2014 Tests the upper-tail steepening scenario driven by fiscal supply, term-premium rebuild, and aggressive Fed easing with a\n- (w=0.20) Will the 30Y-10Y spread on August 31, 2026 be below 50 basis points? \u2014 Tests the flattening tail: recession/flight-to-quality bid for duration, fiscal consolidation, or Treasury shifting issu\n- (w=0.20) Will the Federal Reserve cut the target federal funds rate by at least 50 bp cumulatively between now and August 2026? \u2014 Front-end easing plus long-end term premium is the classic bear/bull-steepening driver; the 30s-10s segment steepens mod\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | fred_data | STRONG cred 97 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] FRED shows DGS30 at 5.21% and DGS10 at 4.68% on 2026-07-30, implying a 30Y-10Y spread of about 53 bp.\n2. [sq1 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Both DGS30 and DGS10 rose +13 bp year-over-year, leaving the 30Y-10Y spread essentially unchanged versus a year earlier.\n3. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | DATED] After the June 2026 FOMC hold, markets brought forward first-rate-hike expectations under Chair Warsh and BofA forecast further curve flattening.\n4. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 50 | UP | DATED] The Connect Money thesis attributes recent NOB widening to structural, policy and technical forces (deficits, long-end supply, term premium).\n5. [sq1 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The 10-year term premium proxy THREEFYTP10 stood at 0.84 on 2026-07-24, up ~7 bp year-over-year, indicating elevated and rising long-end risk compensation.\n6. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Simulations starting near 55-65 bp with 9-10 month horizons give P(spread \u003e80 bp) of roughly 5-26% and P(\u003c50 bp) of roughly 22-43%.\n7. [sq2 | code_execution | STRONG cred 75 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] The simulation was calibrated to a ~9-10 month horizon, but the actual gap from the latest FRED data (2026-07-30) to resolution (2026-08-31) is only about one month.\n8. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] 30-year yield hit 5.2%, its highest since 2007, driven by Iran-war inflation fears, oil above $100 and deficit concerns; 10Y also topped 4.7% with strategists eyeing 5%.\n9. [sq3 | fred_data | STRONG cred 95 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The current ~53 bp spread sits only about 3 bp above the 50 bp threshold, so small daily moves determine sq3\u0027s outcome.\n10. [sq3 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 92 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] T10Y2Y was 0.47 on 2026-07-31 with DGS2 at 4.23%, showing a modestly upward-sloping curve across both 2s10s and 10s30s segments.\n11. [sq4 | fred_data | STRONG cred 95 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] The fed funds target upper bound was 3.75% as of 2026-08-03, unchanged year-over-year, with effective FEDFUNDS at 3.63% in June 2026.\n12. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 82 | DOWN | RECENT] Reporting through July 2026 describes inflation fears and hike expectations rather than easing, with the Fed holding steady at its June meeting.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $203.3K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 1.00, Volume: $182.8K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.14, Volume: $402.5K\n- \"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.04, Volume: $3.4M\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.07, Volume: $225.7K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.36, Volume: $567.9K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.05, Volume: $155.1K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No base rate for 1-month absolute changes in the 30Y-10Y spread (typical sd likely ~5-12 bp)\n - No FRED data for 2026-07-31 through 2026-08-03 (latest daily spread level)\n - FOMC calendar: whether any meeting occurs between early Aug and Aug 31, 2026\n - No market/Kalshi pricing or dealer forecasts for the NOB spread\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Iran/Strait of Hormuz oil shock path and inflation prints\n - Warsh Fed leaning hawkish (hike) vs. any growth-driven pivot\n - August Treasury refunding / long-end supply announcements\n - Whether the recent equal move in 10Y and 30Y yields persists or bear-steepens\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).\n (c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.\n (d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.\n (e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).\n (f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.\n- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.\n- Don\u0027t pile mass at one value \u2014 if you\u0027re tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.\n- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen \u2014 don\u0027t override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.\n- **Relative-return / spread questions (\"how much will X\u0027s return exceed Y\u0027s\").** A near-zero median is usually right, but size the TAILS to the more VOLATILE leg, not to a generic 2-3pp spread. Two broad equity indices (e.g. Nasdaq-100 vs S\u0026P 500) do stay within roughly \u00b12-3pp over a two-week window. But when one leg is a commodity (crude oil, gold) or a single high-beta stock (e.g. Nvidia), the two-week realized spread regularly reaches \u00b110pp or more \u2014 crude-vs-equity spreads have hit \u00b118pp. In those cases set p10/p90 to at least \u00b110pp (\u00b115pp or wider for oil) while keeping the median near the status-quo spread; the 2-3pp intuition applies only to index-vs-index.\n- **Heavy-tailed one-off magnitudes (opening-weekend box office, product-launch or debut numbers).** Pre-event tracking for these routinely misses by \u00b140% or more, and results land both far above and far below the consensus. Do NOT treat the displayed [min, max] range as the plausible range or clamp p10/p90 to its edges: the outcome can fall outside the range in either direction (recent opening weekends resolved ~7% above a displayed ceiling in one case and roughly half the displayed floor in another). Set p10/p90 wide enough that a 2x-or-0.5x surprise versus your central estimate still lands inside the interval, and when concrete current tracking disagrees with historical/franchise base rates, weight the tracking.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution \u2014 6-10 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"p10\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p25\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p50\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p75\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p90\": \u003cnumber\u003e\n}\n\nPercentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 \u003c= p25 \u003c= p50 \u003c= p75 \u003c= p90).\n",
"models": [
"opus",
"secondary"
],
"p50": 53.25,
"percentiles": {
"0.1": 41.75,
"0.25": 47.5,
"0.5": 53.25,
"0.75": 59.0,
"0.9": 65.75
},
"rationale": "(a) Latest FRED data is 2026-07-30 (30Y 5.21%, 10Y 4.68%, spread ~53 bp); resolution is 2026-08-31, only about one month ahead. (b) Status quo: ~53 bp. (c) Trend: the spread is roughly unchanged year-over-year (both legs +13 bp) even though both yields have surged, so the recent trend is essentially flat with mild upward pressure from a rising 10Y term premium (THREEFYTP10 ~0.84, +7 bp y/y); extrapolating gives maybe 53-58 bp. (d) No market pricing or dealer forecast for the NOB spread exists; base rates for one-month absolute changes in 10s30s are typically ~6-10 bp standard deviation, though volatility is elevated now with 30Y yields at 2007 highs, oil \u003e$100 and Iran risk. The simulation-based tail probabilities in the evidence were calibrated to a 9-10 month horizon and therefore overstate dispersion for a one-month window. (e) LOW scenario (~42 bp): an oil/geopolitical de-escalation plus hawkish Fed-hike repricing under Chair Warsh lifts the belly and front end while long-end inflation risk premium fades, or a risk-off flight-to-quality bid concentrates in 30s \u2014 10s30s flattens 10+ bp. (f) HIGH scenario (~65 bp): heavy August refunding of long-duration coupons, worsening deficit/inflation headlines, and further term-premium rebuild bear-steepen the long end while the 10Y is anchored by policy expectations. I center at ~53 bp with a very slight upward tilt for term-premium/supply pressure, and use a roughly symmetric distribution with sd ~9 bp to respect fat tails and unknown unknowns."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "economics",
"n_sub_qs": 4,
"n_tools": 4,
"reasoning_approach": "Anchor on the latest observed 30Y-10Y spread from FRED, then widen it into a distribution via a random-walk/mild-mean-reversion simulation calibrated to historical spread volatility over a ~10-month horizon; the sub-question probabilities (drift direction, upper tail \u003e80bp, lower tail \u003c50bp, Fed easing path) shift the median and skew of that distribution via weighted averaging.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will the 30Y-10Y Treasury spread (DGS30 minus DGS10) on August 31, 2026 be wider than its level on the most recent available date at the time of forecasting?",
"rationale": "The current spread is the dominant anchor; whether the drift is toward further steepening or partial re-flattening sets the central tendency of the distribution.",
"weight": 0.35
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will the 30Y-10Y spread on August 31, 2026 exceed 80 basis points?",
"rationale": "Tests the upper-tail steepening scenario driven by fiscal supply, term-premium rebuild, and aggressive Fed easing with anchored front end.",
"weight": 0.25
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will the 30Y-10Y spread on August 31, 2026 be below 50 basis points?",
"rationale": "Tests the flattening tail: recession/flight-to-quality bid for duration, fiscal consolidation, or Treasury shifting issuance away from the long end.",
"weight": 0.2
},
{
"id": "sq4",
"question": "Will the Federal Reserve cut the target federal funds rate by at least 50 bp cumulatively between now and August 2026?",
"rationale": "Front-end easing plus long-end term premium is the classic bear/bull-steepening driver; the 30s-10s segment steepens modestly with easing cycles and inflation-risk repricing.",
"weight": 0.2
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_months": 60,
"series_ids": [
"DGS30",
"DGS10",
"DGS2",
"T10Y2Y",
"FEDFUNDS",
"DFEDTARU",
"T5YIFR",
"THREEFYTP10"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "fred_data"
},
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\n# Historical daily changes in (DGS30 - DGS10). Typical daily sd ~1.5-2.0 bp; 200 business-day horizon.\n# Replace s0 with latest observed spread once FRED data is retrieved.\nnp.random.seed(0)\nfor s0 in [55,60,65,70]:\n for daily_sd in [1.4,1.8,2.2]:\n for phi in [1.0,0.995]: # pure RW vs mild mean reversion to 60bp\n n=200; sims=20000\n x=np.full(sims,float(s0))\n for t in range(n):\n x=60+phi*(x-60)+np.random.normal(0,daily_sd,sims)\n print(s0,daily_sd,phi,\u0027mean\u0027,round(x.mean(),1),\u0027sd\u0027,round(x.std(),1),\n \u0027p\u003e80\u0027,round((x\u003e80).mean(),3),\u0027p\u003c50\u0027,round((x\u003c50).mean(),3),\n \u0027q10\u0027,round(np.percentile(x,10),1),\u0027q50\u0027,round(np.percentile(x,50),1),\u0027q90\u0027,round(np.percentile(x,90),1))\n",
"description": "Estimate the distribution of the 30Y-10Y spread ~9-10 months ahead using historical volatility of the spread and a random-walk / mean-reverting simulation, calibrated to the latest FRED values."
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
},
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find the most recent levels of the US 30-year and 10-year Treasury yields and the 30s-10s curve spread, plus analyst/strategist forecasts for the long-end curve, term premium, Treasury issuance/refunding plans (share of long-duration coupon supply), Fed rate-cut expectations for 2026, and any Fed leadership change effects on the curve.",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "What will be the NOB spread on August 31, 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_days": 90,
"queries": [
"30-year Treasury yield curve steepening term premium outlook 2026",
"Treasury quarterly refunding long-end coupon issuance auction sizes",
"Fed rate cut expectations 2026 bond market curve"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "article_search"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-08-03T21:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nConnect Money [NOB Spread Steepening Signals Structural Reset in Long-End Rates](https://www.connectmoney.com/stories/nob-spread-steepening-signals-structural-reset-in-long-end-rates/): \"The widening of the NOB spread\u2014the relative steepening of the 30-year yield over the 10-year yield\u2014is one of the most important, yet often overlooked, bond market signals of the past several months, and understanding its drivers requires unpacking structural, policy, and technical forces\"\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"567de1163ce4d5f4\", \"sheet_id\": \"145\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the difference, in basis points, between the yield on 30-Year U.S. Treasury Securities on August 31, 2026 as presented by FRED at [DGS30](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS30) and the yield on 10-Year U.S. Treasury Securities on that date as presented by FRED at [DGS10](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10).\n\n## Fine Print\nIf no value for the date is published by FRED, the most recent available value from an earlier day will be used.",
"open_lower": true,
"open_upper": true,
"q_max": 75.5,
"q_min": 24.5,
"question_type": "numeric",
"title": "What will be the NOB spread on August 31, 2026?",
"units": "basis points"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $203.3K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 1.00, Volume: $182.8K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.14, Volume: $402.5K\n- \"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.04, Volume: $3.4M\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.07, Volume: $225.7K\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.36, Volume: $567.9K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.05, Volume: $155.1K",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 4,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 35.68,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "8 series",
"tool_name": "fred_data"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 6.67,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Estimate the distribution of the 30Y-10Y spread ~9-10 months",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 27.83,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "13 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.91,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "29 articles",
"tool_name": "article_search"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "FRED shows DGS30 at 5.21% and DGS10 at 4.68% on 2026-07-30, implying a 30Y-10Y spread of about 53 bp.",
"credibility": 97,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "fred_data",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Both DGS30 and DGS10 rose +13 bp year-over-year, leaving the 30Y-10Y spread essentially unchanged versus a year earlier.",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "fred_data",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "After the June 2026 FOMC hold, markets brought forward first-rate-hike expectations under Chair Warsh and BofA forecast further curve flattening.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "The Connect Money thesis attributes recent NOB widening to structural, policy and technical forces (deficits, long-end supply, term premium).",
"credibility": 50,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "The 10-year term premium proxy THREEFYTP10 stood at 0.84 on 2026-07-24, up ~7 bp year-over-year, indicating elevated and rising long-end risk compensation.",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "fred_data",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Simulations starting near 55-65 bp with 9-10 month horizons give P(spread \u003e80 bp) of roughly 5-26% and P(\u003c50 bp) of roughly 22-43%.",
"credibility": 45,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "The simulation was calibrated to a ~9-10 month horizon, but the actual gap from the latest FRED data (2026-07-30) to resolution (2026-08-31) is only about one month.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "30-year yield hit 5.2%, its highest since 2007, driven by Iran-war inflation fears, oil above $100 and deficit concerns; 10Y also topped 4.7% with strategists eyeing 5%.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "The current ~53 bp spread sits only about 3 bp above the 50 bp threshold, so small daily moves determine sq3\u0027s outcome.",
"credibility": 95,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "fred_data",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "T10Y2Y was 0.47 on 2026-07-31 with DGS2 at 4.23%, showing a modestly upward-sloping curve across both 2s10s and 10s30s segments.",
"credibility": 92,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "fred_data",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "The fed funds target upper bound was 3.75% as of 2026-08-03, unchanged year-over-year, with effective FEDFUNDS at 3.63% in June 2026.",
"credibility": 95,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "fred_data",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "Reporting through July 2026 describes inflation fears and hike expectations rather than easing, with the Fed holding steady at its June meeting.",
"credibility": 82,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No base rate for 1-month absolute changes in the 30Y-10Y spread (typical sd likely ~5-12 bp)",
"No FRED data for 2026-07-31 through 2026-08-03 (latest daily spread level)",
"FOMC calendar: whether any meeting occurs between early Aug and Aug 31, 2026",
"No market/Kalshi pricing or dealer forecasts for the NOB spread"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Iran/Strait of Hormuz oil shock path and inflation prints",
"Warsh Fed leaning hawkish (hike) vs. any growth-driven pivot",
"August Treasury refunding / long-end supply announcements",
"Whether the recent equal move in 10Y and 30Y yields persists or bear-steepens"
],
"n_evidence": 12
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 33.47,
"plan": 26.1,
"research": 35.68,
"synthesis": 51.57
}
}