Build a historical base-rate distribution of Florida statewide primary turnout (gubernatorial years cluster ~18-27%, recent cycles ~25%), then shift the central estimate up or down based on 2026 primary competitiveness (sq3) and registration/mail-voting environment (sq4), using sq1/sq2 threshold probabilities to calibrate the width and median of the final numeric distribution.
## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $6.6M
1. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo base-rate model of Florida statewide primary turnout gives median 24.0%, with P(>=25%)=0.44 and 5-95% range of 18.7-29.4%. 2. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Same model estimates P(turnout >= 20%) = 0.92 and P(>=22%) = 0.78 for the 2026 Florida primary. 3. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Historical gubernatorial-year Florida primary turnout averaged 22.9% (sd 4.1); presidential-year primaries averaged 22.2% (sd 3.3). 4. [sq3 | wikipedia_lookup | STRONG cred 92 | UP | RECENT] Florida's August 18, 2026 primary includes both an open governor's race (DeSantis term-limited) and a U.S. Senate special election for Rubio's former seat. 5. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 82 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Politico-style reporting (Jul 18, 2026) says the GOP gubernatorial primary 'appears to be little more than a formality' with Donalds holding Trump's endorsement, establishment backing, a commanding fundraising lead and little opposition advertising. 6. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] DeSantis has publicly and privately fought Donalds' nomination, turning the Florida governor's race into a high-profile intra-GOP succession feud. 7. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No article in the retrieved set documents a competitive, well-funded Democratic statewide primary in Florida for governor or Senate. 8. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | VERY_RECENT] 2026 primary season nationally has featured unusually intense, ideologically charged Democratic primaries (Michigan, Missouri, North Carolina, California), indicating elevated midterm primary engagement. 9. [sq4 | code_execution | WEAK cred 45 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Model incorporated a downward adjustment for Florida's mail-ballot request expiration law (SB 90) requiring re-requests each general election cycle. 10. [sq4 | article_search | WEAK cred 30 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No retrieved reporting documents Florida's 2026 registration totals, party-registration shifts, or vote-by-mail request volumes ahead of the August primary. 11. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | DOWN | DATED] Florida uses closed primaries, limiting participation to registered Democrats and Republicans (NPA voters excluded except for universal-primary contests). ## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $6.6M Information gaps: - Actual Florida Division of Elections turnout figures for 2010/2014/2018/2022/2024 primaries not directly sourced - 2026 Florida registered-voter totals and party registration trends vs. 2022 - Early/mail ballot return counts in the weeks before August 18, 2026 - Competitiveness and funding of Democratic gubernatorial/Senate primary fields in Florida Key uncertainties: - Whether Donalds' near-coronation depresses GOP primary turnout despite the DeSantis feud - Effect of SB 90 mail-ballot request expiration on VBM participation - Whether the Senate special election primary is contested in either party - Down-ballot/local races and county-level ballot measures driving marginal turnout
You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.
## Question
What will be the voter turnout for Florida's 2026 primary election?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
First Coast News: [Florida Primary Elections: Your guide to key races, candidates and voter information leading up to August 18](https://www.firstcoastnews.com/article/news/politics/elections/florida-primary-election-voter-guide-governor-house-senate-jacksonville/77-40dc8fd8-794b-4d82-ad41-12f19790eb74)
`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "45c903d1b76050bc", "sheet_id": "148"}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as the voter turnout reported by the [Florida Division of Elections](https://dos.fl.gov/elections/data-statistics/elections-data/voter-turnout/) for the 2026 Florida primary election [scheduled](https://www.myfloridaelections.com/election-dates-deadlines) for August 18, 2026. If the turnout is reported as a decimal, it resolves to the nearest whole percentage point.
## Fine Print
The question may also resolve according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).
## Range
The answer must be a number in [17.5, 34.5] (units: %).
## Sub-question decomposition (planner)
- (w=0.30) Will the reported 2026 Florida primary turnout be at or above 25% of registered voters (i.e., comparable to or above the 2018/2022 gubernatorial-year primaries)? — Anchors the upper end of the plausible range; recent gubernatorial-year primaries (2018 ~27%, 2022 ~25%) clustered near
- (w=0.30) Will the 2026 Florida primary turnout be at or above 20% (i.e., clearly above the low-interest 2024 primary and 2014-style lows)? — Sets the downside floor; the 2021 mail-ballot request-renewal law and declining Democratic registration could push turno
- (w=0.25) Will both major parties have genuinely contested statewide primaries (governor and/or U.S. Senate) with multiple well-funded candidates on August 18, 2026? — Competitiveness of top-of-ticket primaries is the single largest driver of Florida primary turnout; an uncontested GOP g
- (w=0.15) Will Florida's registered-voter base and vote-by-mail participation environment be at least as favorable to turnout in 2026 as in 2022 (no further net suppression from mail-ballot request expiration, roll maintenance, or registration decline)? — Turnout is a ratio: aggressive voter-roll purges lower the denominator (raising the percentage), while mail-request expi
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo base-rate model of Florida statewide primary turnout gives median 24.0%, with P(>=25%)=0.44 and 5-95% range of 18.7-29.4%.
2. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Same model estimates P(turnout >= 20%) = 0.92 and P(>=22%) = 0.78 for the 2026 Florida primary.
3. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Historical gubernatorial-year Florida primary turnout averaged 22.9% (sd 4.1); presidential-year primaries averaged 22.2% (sd 3.3).
4. [sq3 | wikipedia_lookup | STRONG cred 92 | UP | RECENT] Florida's August 18, 2026 primary includes both an open governor's race (DeSantis term-limited) and a U.S. Senate special election for Rubio's former seat.
5. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 82 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Politico-style reporting (Jul 18, 2026) says the GOP gubernatorial primary 'appears to be little more than a formality' with Donalds holding Trump's endorsement, establishment backing, a commanding fundraising lead and little opposition advertising.
6. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] DeSantis has publicly and privately fought Donalds' nomination, turning the Florida governor's race into a high-profile intra-GOP succession feud.
7. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No article in the retrieved set documents a competitive, well-funded Democratic statewide primary in Florida for governor or Senate.
8. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | VERY_RECENT] 2026 primary season nationally has featured unusually intense, ideologically charged Democratic primaries (Michigan, Missouri, North Carolina, California), indicating elevated midterm primary engagement.
9. [sq4 | code_execution | WEAK cred 45 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Model incorporated a downward adjustment for Florida's mail-ballot request expiration law (SB 90) requiring re-requests each general election cycle.
10. [sq4 | article_search | WEAK cred 30 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No retrieved reporting documents Florida's 2026 registration totals, party-registration shifts, or vote-by-mail request volumes ahead of the August primary.
11. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | DOWN | DATED] Florida uses closed primaries, limiting participation to registered Democrats and Republicans (NPA voters excluded except for universal-primary contests).
## Cross-Market Signals
### Polymarket
- "Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $6.6M
Information gaps:
- Actual Florida Division of Elections turnout figures for 2010/2014/2018/2022/2024 primaries not directly sourced
- 2026 Florida registered-voter totals and party registration trends vs. 2022
- Early/mail ballot return counts in the weeks before August 18, 2026
- Competitiveness and funding of Democratic gubernatorial/Senate primary fields in Florida
Key uncertainties:
- Whether Donalds' near-coronation depresses GOP primary turnout despite the DeSantis feud
- Effect of SB 90 mail-ballot request expiration on VBM participation
- Whether the Senate special election primary is contested in either party
- Down-ballot/local races and county-level ballot measures driving marginal turnout
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).
(c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.
(d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.
(e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).
(f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).
## Calibration guidance
- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.
- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.
- Don't pile mass at one value — if you're tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.
- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen — don't override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.
- **Relative-return / spread questions ("how much will X's return exceed Y's").** A near-zero median is usually right, but size the TAILS to the more VOLATILE leg, not to a generic 2-3pp spread. Two broad equity indices (e.g. Nasdaq-100 vs S&P 500) do stay within roughly ±2-3pp over a two-week window. But when one leg is a commodity (crude oil, gold) or a single high-beta stock (e.g. Nvidia), the two-week realized spread regularly reaches ±10pp or more — crude-vs-equity spreads have hit ±18pp. In those cases set p10/p90 to at least ±10pp (±15pp or wider for oil) while keeping the median near the status-quo spread; the 2-3pp intuition applies only to index-vs-index.
- **Heavy-tailed one-off magnitudes (opening-weekend box office, product-launch or debut numbers).** Pre-event tracking for these routinely misses by ±40% or more, and results land both far above and far below the consensus. Do NOT treat the displayed [min, max] range as the plausible range or clamp p10/p90 to its edges: the outcome can fall outside the range in either direction (recent opening weekends resolved ~7% above a displayed ceiling in one case and roughly half the displayed floor in another). Set p10/p90 wide enough that a 2x-or-0.5x surprise versus your central estimate still lands inside the interval, and when concrete current tracking disagrees with historical/franchise base rates, weight the tracking.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution — 6-10 sentences total>",
"p10": <number>,
"p25": <number>,
"p50": <number>,
"p75": <number>,
"p90": <number>
}
Percentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 <= p25 <= p50 <= p75 <= p90).
{
"forecast": {
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo base-rate model of Florida statewide primary turnout gives median 24.0%, with P(\u003e=25%)=0.44 and 5-95% range of 18.7-29.4%.\n2. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Same model estimates P(turnout \u003e= 20%) = 0.92 and P(\u003e=22%) = 0.78 for the 2026 Florida primary.\n3. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Historical gubernatorial-year Florida primary turnout averaged 22.9% (sd 4.1); presidential-year primaries averaged 22.2% (sd 3.3).\n4. [sq3 | wikipedia_lookup | STRONG cred 92 | UP | RECENT] Florida\u0027s August 18, 2026 primary includes both an open governor\u0027s race (DeSantis term-limited) and a U.S. Senate special election for Rubio\u0027s former seat.\n5. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 82 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Politico-style reporting (Jul 18, 2026) says the GOP gubernatorial primary \u0027appears to be little more than a formality\u0027 with Donalds holding Trump\u0027s endorsement, establishment backing, a commanding fundraising lead and little opposition advertising.\n6. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] DeSantis has publicly and privately fought Donalds\u0027 nomination, turning the Florida governor\u0027s race into a high-profile intra-GOP succession feud.\n7. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No article in the retrieved set documents a competitive, well-funded Democratic statewide primary in Florida for governor or Senate.\n8. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | VERY_RECENT] 2026 primary season nationally has featured unusually intense, ideologically charged Democratic primaries (Michigan, Missouri, North Carolina, California), indicating elevated midterm primary engagement.\n9. [sq4 | code_execution | WEAK cred 45 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Model incorporated a downward adjustment for Florida\u0027s mail-ballot request expiration law (SB 90) requiring re-requests each general election cycle.\n10. [sq4 | article_search | WEAK cred 30 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No retrieved reporting documents Florida\u0027s 2026 registration totals, party-registration shifts, or vote-by-mail request volumes ahead of the August primary.\n11. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | DOWN | DATED] Florida uses closed primaries, limiting participation to registered Democrats and Republicans (NPA voters excluded except for universal-primary contests).\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $6.6M\n\nInformation gaps:\n - Actual Florida Division of Elections turnout figures for 2010/2014/2018/2022/2024 primaries not directly sourced\n - 2026 Florida registered-voter totals and party registration trends vs. 2022\n - Early/mail ballot return counts in the weeks before August 18, 2026\n - Competitiveness and funding of Democratic gubernatorial/Senate primary fields in Florida\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether Donalds\u0027 near-coronation depresses GOP primary turnout despite the DeSantis feud\n - Effect of SB 90 mail-ballot request expiration on VBM participation\n - Whether the Senate special election primary is contested in either party\n - Down-ballot/local races and county-level ballot measures driving marginal turnout",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.\n\n## Question\nWhat will be the voter turnout for Florida\u0027s 2026 primary election?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nFirst Coast News: [Florida Primary Elections: Your guide to key races, candidates and voter information leading up to August 18](https://www.firstcoastnews.com/article/news/politics/elections/florida-primary-election-voter-guide-governor-house-senate-jacksonville/77-40dc8fd8-794b-4d82-ad41-12f19790eb74)\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"45c903d1b76050bc\", \"sheet_id\": \"148\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the voter turnout reported by the [Florida Division of Elections](https://dos.fl.gov/elections/data-statistics/elections-data/voter-turnout/) for the 2026 Florida primary election [scheduled](https://www.myfloridaelections.com/election-dates-deadlines) for August 18, 2026. If the turnout is reported as a decimal, it resolves to the nearest whole percentage point.\n\n## Fine Print\nThe question may also resolve according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\n## Range\nThe answer must be a number in [17.5, 34.5] (units: %).\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n- (w=0.30) Will the reported 2026 Florida primary turnout be at or above 25% of registered voters (i.e., comparable to or above the 2018/2022 gubernatorial-year primaries)? \u2014 Anchors the upper end of the plausible range; recent gubernatorial-year primaries (2018 ~27%, 2022 ~25%) clustered near \n- (w=0.30) Will the 2026 Florida primary turnout be at or above 20% (i.e., clearly above the low-interest 2024 primary and 2014-style lows)? \u2014 Sets the downside floor; the 2021 mail-ballot request-renewal law and declining Democratic registration could push turno\n- (w=0.25) Will both major parties have genuinely contested statewide primaries (governor and/or U.S. Senate) with multiple well-funded candidates on August 18, 2026? \u2014 Competitiveness of top-of-ticket primaries is the single largest driver of Florida primary turnout; an uncontested GOP g\n- (w=0.15) Will Florida\u0027s registered-voter base and vote-by-mail participation environment be at least as favorable to turnout in 2026 as in 2022 (no further net suppression from mail-ballot request expiration, roll maintenance, or registration decline)? \u2014 Turnout is a ratio: aggressive voter-roll purges lower the denominator (raising the percentage), while mail-request expi\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo base-rate model of Florida statewide primary turnout gives median 24.0%, with P(\u003e=25%)=0.44 and 5-95% range of 18.7-29.4%.\n2. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Same model estimates P(turnout \u003e= 20%) = 0.92 and P(\u003e=22%) = 0.78 for the 2026 Florida primary.\n3. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Historical gubernatorial-year Florida primary turnout averaged 22.9% (sd 4.1); presidential-year primaries averaged 22.2% (sd 3.3).\n4. [sq3 | wikipedia_lookup | STRONG cred 92 | UP | RECENT] Florida\u0027s August 18, 2026 primary includes both an open governor\u0027s race (DeSantis term-limited) and a U.S. Senate special election for Rubio\u0027s former seat.\n5. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 82 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Politico-style reporting (Jul 18, 2026) says the GOP gubernatorial primary \u0027appears to be little more than a formality\u0027 with Donalds holding Trump\u0027s endorsement, establishment backing, a commanding fundraising lead and little opposition advertising.\n6. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] DeSantis has publicly and privately fought Donalds\u0027 nomination, turning the Florida governor\u0027s race into a high-profile intra-GOP succession feud.\n7. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No article in the retrieved set documents a competitive, well-funded Democratic statewide primary in Florida for governor or Senate.\n8. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | VERY_RECENT] 2026 primary season nationally has featured unusually intense, ideologically charged Democratic primaries (Michigan, Missouri, North Carolina, California), indicating elevated midterm primary engagement.\n9. [sq4 | code_execution | WEAK cred 45 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Model incorporated a downward adjustment for Florida\u0027s mail-ballot request expiration law (SB 90) requiring re-requests each general election cycle.\n10. [sq4 | article_search | WEAK cred 30 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No retrieved reporting documents Florida\u0027s 2026 registration totals, party-registration shifts, or vote-by-mail request volumes ahead of the August primary.\n11. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | DOWN | DATED] Florida uses closed primaries, limiting participation to registered Democrats and Republicans (NPA voters excluded except for universal-primary contests).\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $6.6M\n\nInformation gaps:\n - Actual Florida Division of Elections turnout figures for 2010/2014/2018/2022/2024 primaries not directly sourced\n - 2026 Florida registered-voter totals and party registration trends vs. 2022\n - Early/mail ballot return counts in the weeks before August 18, 2026\n - Competitiveness and funding of Democratic gubernatorial/Senate primary fields in Florida\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether Donalds\u0027 near-coronation depresses GOP primary turnout despite the DeSantis feud\n - Effect of SB 90 mail-ballot request expiration on VBM participation\n - Whether the Senate special election primary is contested in either party\n - Down-ballot/local races and county-level ballot measures driving marginal turnout\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).\n (c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.\n (d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.\n (e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).\n (f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.\n- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.\n- Don\u0027t pile mass at one value \u2014 if you\u0027re tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.\n- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen \u2014 don\u0027t override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.\n- **Relative-return / spread questions (\"how much will X\u0027s return exceed Y\u0027s\").** A near-zero median is usually right, but size the TAILS to the more VOLATILE leg, not to a generic 2-3pp spread. Two broad equity indices (e.g. Nasdaq-100 vs S\u0026P 500) do stay within roughly \u00b12-3pp over a two-week window. But when one leg is a commodity (crude oil, gold) or a single high-beta stock (e.g. Nvidia), the two-week realized spread regularly reaches \u00b110pp or more \u2014 crude-vs-equity spreads have hit \u00b118pp. In those cases set p10/p90 to at least \u00b110pp (\u00b115pp or wider for oil) while keeping the median near the status-quo spread; the 2-3pp intuition applies only to index-vs-index.\n- **Heavy-tailed one-off magnitudes (opening-weekend box office, product-launch or debut numbers).** Pre-event tracking for these routinely misses by \u00b140% or more, and results land both far above and far below the consensus. Do NOT treat the displayed [min, max] range as the plausible range or clamp p10/p90 to its edges: the outcome can fall outside the range in either direction (recent opening weekends resolved ~7% above a displayed ceiling in one case and roughly half the displayed floor in another). Set p10/p90 wide enough that a 2x-or-0.5x surprise versus your central estimate still lands inside the interval, and when concrete current tracking disagrees with historical/franchise base rates, weight the tracking.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution \u2014 6-10 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"p10\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p25\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p50\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p75\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p90\": \u003cnumber\u003e\n}\n\nPercentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 \u003c= p25 \u003c= p50 \u003c= p75 \u003c= p90).\n",
"models": [
"opus",
"secondary"
],
"p50": 23.3,
"percentiles": {
"0.1": 19.35,
"0.25": 21.450000000000003,
"0.5": 23.3,
"0.75": 25.45,
"0.9": 28.05
},
"rationale": "(a) The question resolves right after August 18, 2026 \u2014 days to weeks away, so most structural drivers (candidate fields, registration base, VBM law) are already fixed. (b) Status quo: Florida gubernatorial-year primaries have run 17.6% (2014, sleepy), ~22% (2010), ~27% (2018), ~25% (2022); a base-rate Monte Carlo centers near 24% with a 19-29% 90% band. (c) Current trend: rising NPA registration (excluded by closed primaries) and SB 90\u0027s mail-request expiration push the ratio down, while aggressive list maintenance shrinks the denominator of low-propensity voters and pushes it up \u2014 roughly offsetting, with a modest net drag. (d) Experts/base rates cluster at 22-25%; the strongest specific evidence is that the GOP gubernatorial primary looks like a Donalds coronation and no well-funded Democratic statewide primary is documented, which historically (cf. 2014) is the single biggest turnout depressant, though the DeSantis-Donalds feud, an open governor\u0027s seat, a Senate special primary, and nationally energized midterm primaries provide some offset. (e) Low scenario (~19-20%): both parties\u0027 top-of-ticket primaries are effectively decided, mail-ballot requests lapse en masse, GOP voters see no reason to show up, and turnout lands 2014-style in the high teens/low 20s. (f) High scenario (~27-29%): the DeSantis-aligned challenge to Donalds becomes a genuine proxy war with heavy spending, a contested Senate special primary and competitive Democratic race mobilize both bases, and turnout matches or exceeds 2018. Weighing an uncompetitive top-line against structural offsets, I center slightly below the pure base rate at ~23% and keep wide tails given uncertainty about VBM volumes and the registration denominator."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "politics",
"n_sub_qs": 4,
"n_tools": 4,
"reasoning_approach": "Build a historical base-rate distribution of Florida statewide primary turnout (gubernatorial years cluster ~18-27%, recent cycles ~25%), then shift the central estimate up or down based on 2026 primary competitiveness (sq3) and registration/mail-voting environment (sq4), using sq1/sq2 threshold probabilities to calibrate the width and median of the final numeric distribution.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will the reported 2026 Florida primary turnout be at or above 25% of registered voters (i.e., comparable to or above the 2018/2022 gubernatorial-year primaries)?",
"rationale": "Anchors the upper end of the plausible range; recent gubernatorial-year primaries (2018 ~27%, 2022 ~25%) clustered near this threshold, so whether 2026 matches them determines whether the central estimate sits above or below 25%.",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will the 2026 Florida primary turnout be at or above 20% (i.e., clearly above the low-interest 2024 primary and 2014-style lows)?",
"rationale": "Sets the downside floor; the 2021 mail-ballot request-renewal law and declining Democratic registration could push turnout toward the high teens as in 2024 (~18-19%).",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will both major parties have genuinely contested statewide primaries (governor and/or U.S. Senate) with multiple well-funded candidates on August 18, 2026?",
"rationale": "Competitiveness of top-of-ticket primaries is the single largest driver of Florida primary turnout; an uncontested GOP gubernatorial primary or a cleared Democratic field would suppress turnout materially.",
"weight": 0.25
},
{
"id": "sq4",
"question": "Will Florida\u0027s registered-voter base and vote-by-mail participation environment be at least as favorable to turnout in 2026 as in 2022 (no further net suppression from mail-ballot request expiration, roll maintenance, or registration decline)?",
"rationale": "Turnout is a ratio: aggressive voter-roll purges lower the denominator (raising the percentage), while mail-request expiration and lower Democratic registration lower the numerator; net direction matters for a few points.",
"weight": 0.15
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"2026 Florida gubernatorial election",
"2026 United States Senate election in Florida",
"2022 Florida gubernatorial election primary",
"Elections in Florida"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "wikipedia_lookup"
},
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\n# Florida statewide primary turnout (% of registered voters), Division of Elections\nhist = {2010:21.6, 2012:20.0, 2014:17.8, 2016:24.4, 2018:26.9, 2020:25.5, 2022:25.4, 2024:18.7}\ngub = [2010,2014,2018,2022]\npres = [2012,2016,2020,2024]\ng = np.array([hist[y] for y in gub]); p = np.array([hist[y] for y in pres])\nprint(\u0027gubernatorial-year mean/sd\u0027, g.mean(), g.std(ddof=1))\nprint(\u0027presidential-year mean/sd\u0027, p.mean(), p.std(ddof=1))\n# recent-weighted anchor: 2018, 2022 heavier\nanchor = 0.45*hist[2022] + 0.30*hist[2018] + 0.15*hist[2014] + 0.10*hist[2024]\nprint(\u0027weighted anchor\u0027, anchor)\n# Monte Carlo: anchor with competitiveness and mail-law adjustments\nrng = np.random.default_rng(7)\nN=200000\nbase = rng.normal(anchor, 2.6, N)\ncontest = rng.normal(1.0, 1.5, N) # open governor seat, both-party contests, uncertain\nmail = rng.normal(-1.0, 1.2, N) # mail request expiration / registration shifts\nsim = base + contest + mail\nsim = np.clip(sim, 12, 40)\nfor q in [5,10,25,50,75,90,95]:\n print(q, round(np.percentile(sim,q),1))\nprint(\u0027P(\u003e=25)\u0027, (sim\u003e=24.5).mean(), \u0027P(\u003e=20)\u0027, (sim\u003e=19.5).mean(), \u0027P(\u003e=22)\u0027, (sim\u003e=21.5).mean())\n",
"description": "Base-rate and Monte Carlo distribution for Florida 2026 primary turnout anchored on historical Division of Elections turnout, adjusted for race competitiveness and mail-ballot law effects."
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
},
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find (a) official Florida Division of Elections statewide primary voter turnout percentages for 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024; (b) the current state of the August 18, 2026 Florida primary: how many candidates are running in the Republican and Democratic gubernatorial primaries (e.g., Byron Donalds, Paul Renner, Jay Collins, David Jolly), whether there is a contested U.S. Senate primary (Ashley Moody), and any statewide ballot measures on the primary ballot; (c) Florida voter registration trends and effects of the 2021 mail-ballot request expiration law and voter roll maintenance on registered-voter totals.",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "What will be the voter turnout for Florida\u0027s 2026 primary election?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_days": 120,
"queries": [
"Florida August 18 2026 primary governor candidates qualifying",
"Florida voter registration Republicans Democrats 2026 numbers",
"Florida vote by mail request law turnout decline"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "article_search"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-08-03T00:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nFirst Coast News: [Florida Primary Elections: Your guide to key races, candidates and voter information leading up to August 18](https://www.firstcoastnews.com/article/news/politics/elections/florida-primary-election-voter-guide-governor-house-senate-jacksonville/77-40dc8fd8-794b-4d82-ad41-12f19790eb74)\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"45c903d1b76050bc\", \"sheet_id\": \"148\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the voter turnout reported by the [Florida Division of Elections](https://dos.fl.gov/elections/data-statistics/elections-data/voter-turnout/) for the 2026 Florida primary election [scheduled](https://www.myfloridaelections.com/election-dates-deadlines) for August 18, 2026. If the turnout is reported as a decimal, it resolves to the nearest whole percentage point.\n\n## Fine Print\nThe question may also resolve according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).",
"open_lower": true,
"open_upper": true,
"q_max": 34.5,
"q_min": 17.5,
"question_type": "numeric",
"title": "What will be the voter turnout for Florida\u0027s 2026 primary election?",
"units": "%"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $6.6M",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 4,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 1.8,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "3 pages",
"tool_name": "wikipedia_lookup"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.51,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Base-rate and Monte Carlo distribution for Florida 2026 prim",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 32.73,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "14 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.95,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "26 articles",
"tool_name": "article_search"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "Monte Carlo base-rate model of Florida statewide primary turnout gives median 24.0%, with P(\u003e=25%)=0.44 and 5-95% range of 18.7-29.4%.",
"credibility": 55,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Same model estimates P(turnout \u003e= 20%) = 0.92 and P(\u003e=22%) = 0.78 for the 2026 Florida primary.",
"credibility": 55,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Historical gubernatorial-year Florida primary turnout averaged 22.9% (sd 4.1); presidential-year primaries averaged 22.2% (sd 3.3).",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Florida\u0027s August 18, 2026 primary includes both an open governor\u0027s race (DeSantis term-limited) and a U.S. Senate special election for Rubio\u0027s former seat.",
"credibility": 92,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "wikipedia_lookup",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Politico-style reporting (Jul 18, 2026) says the GOP gubernatorial primary \u0027appears to be little more than a formality\u0027 with Donalds holding Trump\u0027s endorsement, establishment backing, a commanding fundraising lead and little opposition advertising.",
"credibility": 82,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "DeSantis has publicly and privately fought Donalds\u0027 nomination, turning the Florida governor\u0027s race into a high-profile intra-GOP succession feud.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "No article in the retrieved set documents a competitive, well-funded Democratic statewide primary in Florida for governor or Senate.",
"credibility": 35,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "2026 primary season nationally has featured unusually intense, ideologically charged Democratic primaries (Michigan, Missouri, North Carolina, California), indicating elevated midterm primary engagement.",
"credibility": 78,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Model incorporated a downward adjustment for Florida\u0027s mail-ballot request expiration law (SB 90) requiring re-requests each general election cycle.",
"credibility": 45,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "No retrieved reporting documents Florida\u0027s 2026 registration totals, party-registration shifts, or vote-by-mail request volumes ahead of the August primary.",
"credibility": 30,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "Florida uses closed primaries, limiting participation to registered Democrats and Republicans (NPA voters excluded except for universal-primary contests).",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"Actual Florida Division of Elections turnout figures for 2010/2014/2018/2022/2024 primaries not directly sourced",
"2026 Florida registered-voter totals and party registration trends vs. 2022",
"Early/mail ballot return counts in the weeks before August 18, 2026",
"Competitiveness and funding of Democratic gubernatorial/Senate primary fields in Florida"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether Donalds\u0027 near-coronation depresses GOP primary turnout despite the DeSantis feud",
"Effect of SB 90 mail-ballot request expiration on VBM participation",
"Whether the Senate special election primary is contested in either party",
"Down-ballot/local races and county-level ballot measures driving marginal turnout"
],
"n_evidence": 11
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 53.0,
"plan": 31.67,
"research": 32.73,
"synthesis": 29.07
}
}