Build a base-rate distribution from the stable 2020-2025 SDDOT series, discount 2025's 85th-anniversary bump toward a non-milestone baseline, then use the binary sub-question probabilities (below-2025, in-range, above-500k, macro favorability) to shape the center and spread of the numeric predictive distribution via weighted averaging.
## Cross-Market Signals ### No signal found
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 93 | UP | DATED] SDDOT recorded 537,459 vehicles at the 2025 (85th) rally, 11.3% above the prior five-year average of 482,987. 2. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo using 2020-2025 series with milestone-year reversion gives P(2026 < 537,459) ≈ 0.91 and median ≈ 499,000. 3. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 50 | DOWN | RECENT] The 2026 rally is themed 'Sturgis Salutes America' tied to the US 250th birthday, which coverage says is drawing serious attention. 4. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 88 | UP | DATED] Excluding the 2015 75th anniversary, the 2025 count was the highest since 563,650 in 2014, indicating an unusually strong year. 5. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 50 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Observed 2020-2025 counts stayed in a narrow 458k-538k band; simulation puts P(2026 in that range) at about 0.86. 6. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Year-over-year log changes 2021-2025 averaged +3.0% with 10.0% standard deviation, implying roughly ±50k one-sigma swings. 7. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Simulation yields P(2026 count > 500,000) ≈ 0.49, essentially a coin flip around the 500k threshold. 8. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 93 | DOWN | DATED] Only two of the last six years (2021: 525,768; 2025: 537,459) exceeded 500,000 vehicles; 2022-2024 ranged 458k-498k. 9. [sq3 | web_search | WEAK cred 30 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Promotional and municipal sources routinely describe the rally as drawing 450,000-500,000+ people annually, with no 2026-specific forecast. 10. [sq4 | fred_data | STRONG cred 97 | UP | VERY_RECENT] US weekly regular gasoline averaged $4.10/gal on 2026-07-27, down $0.40 year-over-year. 11. [sq4 | fred_data | STRONG cred 95 | DOWN | RECENT] University of Michigan consumer sentiment was 49.5 in June 2026, down 12.2 points year-over-year to a very depressed level. 12. [sq4 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | RECENT] Real disposable personal income (DSPIC96) rose year-over-year as of June 2026, supporting discretionary spending capacity. ## Cross-Market Signals ### No signal found Information gaps: - No 2026-specific attendance forecasts, vendor bookings, or campground/hotel occupancy data - No pre-rally early-day traffic counts or SDDOT interim reporting for August 2026 - No data on 2026 rally weather forecast, a historically large driver of counts - No base rate for how milestone-anniversary years revert the following year (only 2015→2016 precedent) Key uncertainties: - Whether the 'Sturgis Salutes America'/America250 theme adds a demand boost - Magnitude of reversion after the 85th-anniversary bump - Weather during Aug 7-16, 2026 - Whether weak consumer sentiment translates into fewer discretionary long-haul trips
You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.
## Question
How many vehicles will enter Sturgis for the 86th Annual Sturgis Motorcycle Rally?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
The [Sturgis Motorcycle Rally](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sturgis_Motorcycle_Rally) is one of the largest motorcycle rallies in the world. It has been held annually in [Sturgis, South Dakota](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sturgis,_South_Dakota), almost every year since 1938.
Rally attendance peaked at the 75th rally, in 2015, when around one million vehicles were recorded entering Sturgis over the course of the ten-day rally. In recent years, total [vehicle numbers](https://dot.sd.gov/media/tgqjwaxu/2025-sturgis-motorcycle-rally-traffic-counts-report-2016-2025.pdf) have been around half that:
| Year | Total Vehicles |
| ---- | -------------- |
| 2020 | 462,182 |
| 2021 | 525,768 |
| 2022 | 497,835 |
| 2023 | 458,161 |
| 2024 | 470,987 |
| 2025 | 537,459 |
`{"format": "metac_reveal_and_close_in_period", "info": {"post_id": 44914, "question_id": 45063}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve as the total number of vehicles entering Sturgis, South Dakota, during [the 86th Sturgis Motorcycle Rally](https://sturgis.com/), scheduled for August 7-16, 2026, according to the [South Dakota Department of Transportation](https://dot.sd.gov/).
## Fine Print
This question's information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44914) which opened on 2026-07-29 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.
## Range
The answer must be a number in [450000, 550000] (units: Vehicles).
## Sub-question decomposition (planner)
- (w=0.35) Will the 86th (2026) rally total vehicle count be lower than the 85th (2025) count of 537,459? — 2025 was a milestone 85th anniversary year that produced the highest count since 2021; non-milestone years historically
- (w=0.30) Will the 2026 total vehicle count fall within the 2020-2025 observed range of 458,000 to 538,000? — The post-2019 regime has been remarkably stable in a ~80k band; probability of staying in-range sets the width of the pr
- (w=0.20) Will the 2026 total vehicle count exceed 500,000? — 500k is a natural threshold splitting the recent distribution (2021, 2025 above; 2022, 2023, 2024 below); it calibrates
- (w=0.15) Will macro/travel conditions (fuel prices, consumer sentiment, discretionary travel spending) in mid-2026 be at least as favorable as in mid-2025? — Rally attendance is discretionary long-distance travel; gasoline prices and consumer sentiment plus weather are the main
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 93 | UP | DATED] SDDOT recorded 537,459 vehicles at the 2025 (85th) rally, 11.3% above the prior five-year average of 482,987.
2. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo using 2020-2025 series with milestone-year reversion gives P(2026 < 537,459) ≈ 0.91 and median ≈ 499,000.
3. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 50 | DOWN | RECENT] The 2026 rally is themed 'Sturgis Salutes America' tied to the US 250th birthday, which coverage says is drawing serious attention.
4. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 88 | UP | DATED] Excluding the 2015 75th anniversary, the 2025 count was the highest since 563,650 in 2014, indicating an unusually strong year.
5. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 50 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Observed 2020-2025 counts stayed in a narrow 458k-538k band; simulation puts P(2026 in that range) at about 0.86.
6. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Year-over-year log changes 2021-2025 averaged +3.0% with 10.0% standard deviation, implying roughly ±50k one-sigma swings.
7. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Simulation yields P(2026 count > 500,000) ≈ 0.49, essentially a coin flip around the 500k threshold.
8. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 93 | DOWN | DATED] Only two of the last six years (2021: 525,768; 2025: 537,459) exceeded 500,000 vehicles; 2022-2024 ranged 458k-498k.
9. [sq3 | web_search | WEAK cred 30 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Promotional and municipal sources routinely describe the rally as drawing 450,000-500,000+ people annually, with no 2026-specific forecast.
10. [sq4 | fred_data | STRONG cred 97 | UP | VERY_RECENT] US weekly regular gasoline averaged $4.10/gal on 2026-07-27, down $0.40 year-over-year.
11. [sq4 | fred_data | STRONG cred 95 | DOWN | RECENT] University of Michigan consumer sentiment was 49.5 in June 2026, down 12.2 points year-over-year to a very depressed level.
12. [sq4 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | RECENT] Real disposable personal income (DSPIC96) rose year-over-year as of June 2026, supporting discretionary spending capacity.
## Cross-Market Signals
### No signal found
Information gaps:
- No 2026-specific attendance forecasts, vendor bookings, or campground/hotel occupancy data
- No pre-rally early-day traffic counts or SDDOT interim reporting for August 2026
- No data on 2026 rally weather forecast, a historically large driver of counts
- No base rate for how milestone-anniversary years revert the following year (only 2015→2016 precedent)
Key uncertainties:
- Whether the 'Sturgis Salutes America'/America250 theme adds a demand boost
- Magnitude of reversion after the 85th-anniversary bump
- Weather during Aug 7-16, 2026
- Whether weak consumer sentiment translates into fewer discretionary long-haul trips
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).
(c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.
(d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.
(e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).
(f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).
## Calibration guidance
- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.
- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.
- Don't pile mass at one value — if you're tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.
- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen — don't override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.
- **Relative-return / spread questions ("how much will X's return exceed Y's").** A near-zero median is usually right, but size the TAILS to the more VOLATILE leg, not to a generic 2-3pp spread. Two broad equity indices (e.g. Nasdaq-100 vs S&P 500) do stay within roughly ±2-3pp over a two-week window. But when one leg is a commodity (crude oil, gold) or a single high-beta stock (e.g. Nvidia), the two-week realized spread regularly reaches ±10pp or more — crude-vs-equity spreads have hit ±18pp. In those cases set p10/p90 to at least ±10pp (±15pp or wider for oil) while keeping the median near the status-quo spread; the 2-3pp intuition applies only to index-vs-index.
- **Heavy-tailed one-off magnitudes (opening-weekend box office, product-launch or debut numbers).** Pre-event tracking for these routinely misses by ±40% or more, and results land both far above and far below the consensus. Do NOT treat the displayed [min, max] range as the plausible range or clamp p10/p90 to its edges: the outcome can fall outside the range in either direction (recent opening weekends resolved ~7% above a displayed ceiling in one case and roughly half the displayed floor in another). Set p10/p90 wide enough that a 2x-or-0.5x surprise versus your central estimate still lands inside the interval, and when concrete current tracking disagrees with historical/franchise base rates, weight the tracking.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution — 6-10 sentences total>",
"p10": <number>,
"p25": <number>,
"p50": <number>,
"p75": <number>,
"p90": <number>
}
Percentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 <= p25 <= p50 <= p75 <= p90).
{
"forecast": {
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 93 | UP | DATED] SDDOT recorded 537,459 vehicles at the 2025 (85th) rally, 11.3% above the prior five-year average of 482,987.\n2. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo using 2020-2025 series with milestone-year reversion gives P(2026 \u003c 537,459) \u2248 0.91 and median \u2248 499,000.\n3. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 50 | DOWN | RECENT] The 2026 rally is themed \u0027Sturgis Salutes America\u0027 tied to the US 250th birthday, which coverage says is drawing serious attention.\n4. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 88 | UP | DATED] Excluding the 2015 75th anniversary, the 2025 count was the highest since 563,650 in 2014, indicating an unusually strong year.\n5. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 50 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Observed 2020-2025 counts stayed in a narrow 458k-538k band; simulation puts P(2026 in that range) at about 0.86.\n6. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Year-over-year log changes 2021-2025 averaged +3.0% with 10.0% standard deviation, implying roughly \u00b150k one-sigma swings.\n7. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Simulation yields P(2026 count \u003e 500,000) \u2248 0.49, essentially a coin flip around the 500k threshold.\n8. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 93 | DOWN | DATED] Only two of the last six years (2021: 525,768; 2025: 537,459) exceeded 500,000 vehicles; 2022-2024 ranged 458k-498k.\n9. [sq3 | web_search | WEAK cred 30 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Promotional and municipal sources routinely describe the rally as drawing 450,000-500,000+ people annually, with no 2026-specific forecast.\n10. [sq4 | fred_data | STRONG cred 97 | UP | VERY_RECENT] US weekly regular gasoline averaged $4.10/gal on 2026-07-27, down $0.40 year-over-year.\n11. [sq4 | fred_data | STRONG cred 95 | DOWN | RECENT] University of Michigan consumer sentiment was 49.5 in June 2026, down 12.2 points year-over-year to a very depressed level.\n12. [sq4 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | RECENT] Real disposable personal income (DSPIC96) rose year-over-year as of June 2026, supporting discretionary spending capacity.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No 2026-specific attendance forecasts, vendor bookings, or campground/hotel occupancy data\n - No pre-rally early-day traffic counts or SDDOT interim reporting for August 2026\n - No data on 2026 rally weather forecast, a historically large driver of counts\n - No base rate for how milestone-anniversary years revert the following year (only 2015\u21922016 precedent)\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether the \u0027Sturgis Salutes America\u0027/America250 theme adds a demand boost\n - Magnitude of reversion after the 85th-anniversary bump\n - Weather during Aug 7-16, 2026\n - Whether weak consumer sentiment translates into fewer discretionary long-haul trips",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.\n\n## Question\nHow many vehicles will enter Sturgis for the 86th Annual Sturgis Motorcycle Rally?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nThe [Sturgis Motorcycle Rally](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sturgis_Motorcycle_Rally) is one of the largest motorcycle rallies in the world. It has been held annually in [Sturgis, South Dakota](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sturgis,_South_Dakota), almost every year since 1938.\n\nRally attendance peaked at the 75th rally, in 2015, when around one million vehicles were recorded entering Sturgis over the course of the ten-day rally. In recent years, total [vehicle numbers](https://dot.sd.gov/media/tgqjwaxu/2025-sturgis-motorcycle-rally-traffic-counts-report-2016-2025.pdf) have been around half that:\n\n| Year | Total Vehicles |\n| ---- | -------------- |\n| 2020 | 462,182 |\n| 2021 | 525,768 |\n| 2022 | 497,835 |\n| 2023 | 458,161 |\n| 2024 | 470,987 |\n| 2025 | 537,459 |\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 44914, \"question_id\": 45063}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question will resolve as the total number of vehicles entering Sturgis, South Dakota, during [the 86th Sturgis Motorcycle Rally](https://sturgis.com/), scheduled for August 7-16, 2026, according to the [South Dakota Department of Transportation](https://dot.sd.gov/).\n\n## Fine Print\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44914) which opened on 2026-07-29 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.\n\n## Range\nThe answer must be a number in [450000, 550000] (units: Vehicles).\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n- (w=0.35) Will the 86th (2026) rally total vehicle count be lower than the 85th (2025) count of 537,459? \u2014 2025 was a milestone 85th anniversary year that produced the highest count since 2021; non-milestone years historically \n- (w=0.30) Will the 2026 total vehicle count fall within the 2020-2025 observed range of 458,000 to 538,000? \u2014 The post-2019 regime has been remarkably stable in a ~80k band; probability of staying in-range sets the width of the pr\n- (w=0.20) Will the 2026 total vehicle count exceed 500,000? \u2014 500k is a natural threshold splitting the recent distribution (2021, 2025 above; 2022, 2023, 2024 below); it calibrates \n- (w=0.15) Will macro/travel conditions (fuel prices, consumer sentiment, discretionary travel spending) in mid-2026 be at least as favorable as in mid-2025? \u2014 Rally attendance is discretionary long-distance travel; gasoline prices and consumer sentiment plus weather are the main\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 93 | UP | DATED] SDDOT recorded 537,459 vehicles at the 2025 (85th) rally, 11.3% above the prior five-year average of 482,987.\n2. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo using 2020-2025 series with milestone-year reversion gives P(2026 \u003c 537,459) \u2248 0.91 and median \u2248 499,000.\n3. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 50 | DOWN | RECENT] The 2026 rally is themed \u0027Sturgis Salutes America\u0027 tied to the US 250th birthday, which coverage says is drawing serious attention.\n4. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 88 | UP | DATED] Excluding the 2015 75th anniversary, the 2025 count was the highest since 563,650 in 2014, indicating an unusually strong year.\n5. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 50 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Observed 2020-2025 counts stayed in a narrow 458k-538k band; simulation puts P(2026 in that range) at about 0.86.\n6. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Year-over-year log changes 2021-2025 averaged +3.0% with 10.0% standard deviation, implying roughly \u00b150k one-sigma swings.\n7. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Simulation yields P(2026 count \u003e 500,000) \u2248 0.49, essentially a coin flip around the 500k threshold.\n8. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 93 | DOWN | DATED] Only two of the last six years (2021: 525,768; 2025: 537,459) exceeded 500,000 vehicles; 2022-2024 ranged 458k-498k.\n9. [sq3 | web_search | WEAK cred 30 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Promotional and municipal sources routinely describe the rally as drawing 450,000-500,000+ people annually, with no 2026-specific forecast.\n10. [sq4 | fred_data | STRONG cred 97 | UP | VERY_RECENT] US weekly regular gasoline averaged $4.10/gal on 2026-07-27, down $0.40 year-over-year.\n11. [sq4 | fred_data | STRONG cred 95 | DOWN | RECENT] University of Michigan consumer sentiment was 49.5 in June 2026, down 12.2 points year-over-year to a very depressed level.\n12. [sq4 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | RECENT] Real disposable personal income (DSPIC96) rose year-over-year as of June 2026, supporting discretionary spending capacity.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No 2026-specific attendance forecasts, vendor bookings, or campground/hotel occupancy data\n - No pre-rally early-day traffic counts or SDDOT interim reporting for August 2026\n - No data on 2026 rally weather forecast, a historically large driver of counts\n - No base rate for how milestone-anniversary years revert the following year (only 2015\u21922016 precedent)\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether the \u0027Sturgis Salutes America\u0027/America250 theme adds a demand boost\n - Magnitude of reversion after the 85th-anniversary bump\n - Weather during Aug 7-16, 2026\n - Whether weak consumer sentiment translates into fewer discretionary long-haul trips\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).\n (c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.\n (d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.\n (e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).\n (f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.\n- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.\n- Don\u0027t pile mass at one value \u2014 if you\u0027re tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.\n- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen \u2014 don\u0027t override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.\n- **Relative-return / spread questions (\"how much will X\u0027s return exceed Y\u0027s\").** A near-zero median is usually right, but size the TAILS to the more VOLATILE leg, not to a generic 2-3pp spread. Two broad equity indices (e.g. Nasdaq-100 vs S\u0026P 500) do stay within roughly \u00b12-3pp over a two-week window. But when one leg is a commodity (crude oil, gold) or a single high-beta stock (e.g. Nvidia), the two-week realized spread regularly reaches \u00b110pp or more \u2014 crude-vs-equity spreads have hit \u00b118pp. In those cases set p10/p90 to at least \u00b110pp (\u00b115pp or wider for oil) while keeping the median near the status-quo spread; the 2-3pp intuition applies only to index-vs-index.\n- **Heavy-tailed one-off magnitudes (opening-weekend box office, product-launch or debut numbers).** Pre-event tracking for these routinely misses by \u00b140% or more, and results land both far above and far below the consensus. Do NOT treat the displayed [min, max] range as the plausible range or clamp p10/p90 to its edges: the outcome can fall outside the range in either direction (recent opening weekends resolved ~7% above a displayed ceiling in one case and roughly half the displayed floor in another). Set p10/p90 wide enough that a 2x-or-0.5x surprise versus your central estimate still lands inside the interval, and when concrete current tracking disagrees with historical/franchise base rates, weight the tracking.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution \u2014 6-10 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"p10\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p25\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p50\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p75\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p90\": \u003cnumber\u003e\n}\n\nPercentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 \u003c= p25 \u003c= p50 \u003c= p75 \u003c= p90).\n",
"models": [
"opus",
"secondary"
],
"p50": 502000.0,
"percentiles": {
"0.1": 456000.0,
"0.25": 479500.0,
"0.5": 502000.0,
"0.75": 523500.0,
"0.9": 542500.0
},
"rationale": "(a) The rally runs Aug 7-16, 2026, so resolution is only a few weeks after question open \u2014 very little time for the macro backdrop to change. (b) Status quo (2025 actual) is 537,459, but that was an 85th-anniversary year that ran ~11% above the prior five-year mean of ~483,000, so pure status-quo carry-over is likely too high. (c) The recent trend is a stable post-2019 regime oscillating in a 458k-538k band with average +3% YoY log change and ~10% volatility; mean-reversion after a milestone bump (cf. 2015 -\u003e 2016) points to roughly 490k-505k. (d) No expert or market forecast exists; base rates put only 2 of the last 6 years above 500k, and Monte Carlo work in the evidence gives a median near 499k and P(\u003e500k) ~ 0.49, P(\u003c537,459) ~ 0.91. (e) A low outcome near 455k would come from post-anniversary fatigue plus rain/cold during the core weekend and weak consumer sentiment (UMich 49.5, down 12 pts YoY) suppressing discretionary long-haul trips \u2014 essentially a repeat of 2023\u0027s 458k. (f) A high outcome near 540k+ would come from the \u0027Sturgis Salutes America\u0027/America250 theme sustaining momentum, cheaper gasoline (down $0.40 YoY) and rising real disposable income, plus perfect Black Hills weather, producing back-to-back strong years like 2021 followed by an even stronger draw. Weighting reversion against the patriotic-theme tailwind, I center just below 500k with a wide, slightly right-skewed spread that respects the historical ~80k band and allows for tail surprises at both edges of the permitted range."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "culture",
"n_sub_qs": 4,
"n_tools": 4,
"reasoning_approach": "Build a base-rate distribution from the stable 2020-2025 SDDOT series, discount 2025\u0027s 85th-anniversary bump toward a non-milestone baseline, then use the binary sub-question probabilities (below-2025, in-range, above-500k, macro favorability) to shape the center and spread of the numeric predictive distribution via weighted averaging.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will the 86th (2026) rally total vehicle count be lower than the 85th (2025) count of 537,459?",
"rationale": "2025 was a milestone 85th anniversary year that produced the highest count since 2021; non-milestone years historically revert downward, so this anchors the central tendency below 537k.",
"weight": 0.35
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will the 2026 total vehicle count fall within the 2020-2025 observed range of 458,000 to 538,000?",
"rationale": "The post-2019 regime has been remarkably stable in a ~80k band; probability of staying in-range sets the width of the predictive distribution.",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will the 2026 total vehicle count exceed 500,000?",
"rationale": "500k is a natural threshold splitting the recent distribution (2021, 2025 above; 2022, 2023, 2024 below); it calibrates the upper half of the distribution.",
"weight": 0.2
},
{
"id": "sq4",
"question": "Will macro/travel conditions (fuel prices, consumer sentiment, discretionary travel spending) in mid-2026 be at least as favorable as in mid-2025?",
"rationale": "Rally attendance is discretionary long-distance travel; gasoline prices and consumer sentiment plus weather are the main year-over-year swing factors around the structural baseline.",
"weight": 0.15
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\nyears=[2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024,2025]\n# recent known totals (2020-2025 from SDDOT report)\nrecent={2020:462182,2021:525768,2022:497835,2023:458161,2024:470987,2025:537459}\nv=np.array(list(recent.values()),dtype=float)\nprint(\u0027mean\u0027,v.mean(),\u0027sd\u0027,v.std(ddof=1))\nlr=np.diff(np.log(v))\nprint(\u0027log yoy changes\u0027,lr,\u0027mean\u0027,lr.mean(),\u0027sd\u0027,lr.std(ddof=1))\n# milestone adjustment: 2025 was 85th anniversary -\u003e assume partial reversion\nnp.random.seed(0)\nbase=np.mean([497835,458161,470987]) # non-milestone recent baseline\nprint(\u0027non-milestone baseline\u0027,base)\nsims=[]\nfor _ in range(200000):\n # blend anchor: 60% weight on non-milestone baseline, 40% on 2025 level (momentum)\n anchor=0.62*base+0.38*537459\n shock=np.random.normal(0,0.055)\n sims.append(anchor*np.exp(shock))\nsims=np.array(sims)\nfor q in [5,10,25,50,75,90,95]:\n print(q,np.percentile(sims,q))\nprint(\u0027P(\u003c537459)\u0027,(sims\u003c537459).mean())\nprint(\u0027P(458k-538k)\u0027,((sims\u003e458000)\u0026(sims\u003c538000)).mean())\nprint(\u0027P(\u003e500k)\u0027,(sims\u003e500000).mean())",
"description": "Monte Carlo of 2026 Sturgis vehicle count using recent-year baseline, milestone-year reversion, and observed year-over-year volatility; outputs quantiles and threshold probabilities."
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
},
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"Sturgis Motorcycle Rally 2026 86th annual attendance expectations",
"SDDOT Sturgis rally traffic counts report vehicles entering Sturgis",
"Sturgis 2026 rally schedule August 7-16 concerts headliners bookings"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find any 2026 pre-rally indicators for the 86th Sturgis Motorcycle Rally (Aug 7-16, 2026): campground/hotel booking rates, city of Sturgis or Meade County official expectations, vendor permit counts, concert lineup strength, motorcycle industry sales trends (Harley-Davidson), and any news about weather forecasts, fuel prices, or economic conditions affecting rally travel. Also confirm the official SDDOT 2025 total (537,459) and whether the 85th anniversary was cited as boosting 2025 attendance.",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "How many vehicles will enter Sturgis for the 86th Annual Sturgis Motorcycle Rally?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_months": 30,
"search_text": "US retail gasoline price and consumer sentiment",
"series_ids": [
"GASREGW",
"UMCSENT",
"DSPIC96"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "fred_data"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-08-01T17:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nThe [Sturgis Motorcycle Rally](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sturgis_Motorcycle_Rally) is one of the largest motorcycle rallies in the world. It has been held annually in [Sturgis, South Dakota](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sturgis,_South_Dakota), almost every year since 1938.\n\nRally attendance peaked at the 75th rally, in 2015, when around one million vehicles were recorded entering Sturgis over the course of the ten-day rally. In recent years, total [vehicle numbers](https://dot.sd.gov/media/tgqjwaxu/2025-sturgis-motorcycle-rally-traffic-counts-report-2016-2025.pdf) have been around half that:\n\n| Year | Total Vehicles |\n| ---- | -------------- |\n| 2020 | 462,182 |\n| 2021 | 525,768 |\n| 2022 | 497,835 |\n| 2023 | 458,161 |\n| 2024 | 470,987 |\n| 2025 | 537,459 |\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 44914, \"question_id\": 45063}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question will resolve as the total number of vehicles entering Sturgis, South Dakota, during [the 86th Sturgis Motorcycle Rally](https://sturgis.com/), scheduled for August 7-16, 2026, according to the [South Dakota Department of Transportation](https://dot.sd.gov/).\n\n## Fine Print\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44914) which opened on 2026-07-29 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.",
"open_lower": true,
"open_upper": true,
"q_max": 550000,
"q_min": 450000,
"question_type": "numeric",
"title": "How many vehicles will enter Sturgis for the 86th Annual Sturgis Motorcycle Rally?",
"units": "Vehicles"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 4,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 1.12,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Monte Carlo of 2026 Sturgis vehicle count using recent-year ",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 35.02,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "0 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 28.44,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "14 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 5.9,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "3 series",
"tool_name": "fred_data"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "SDDOT recorded 537,459 vehicles at the 2025 (85th) rally, 11.3% above the prior five-year average of 482,987.",
"credibility": 93,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Monte Carlo using 2020-2025 series with milestone-year reversion gives P(2026 \u003c 537,459) \u2248 0.91 and median \u2248 499,000.",
"credibility": 45,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "The 2026 rally is themed \u0027Sturgis Salutes America\u0027 tied to the US 250th birthday, which coverage says is drawing serious attention.",
"credibility": 50,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Excluding the 2015 75th anniversary, the 2025 count was the highest since 563,650 in 2014, indicating an unusually strong year.",
"credibility": 88,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Observed 2020-2025 counts stayed in a narrow 458k-538k band; simulation puts P(2026 in that range) at about 0.86.",
"credibility": 50,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Year-over-year log changes 2021-2025 averaged +3.0% with 10.0% standard deviation, implying roughly \u00b150k one-sigma swings.",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Simulation yields P(2026 count \u003e 500,000) \u2248 0.49, essentially a coin flip around the 500k threshold.",
"credibility": 45,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Only two of the last six years (2021: 525,768; 2025: 537,459) exceeded 500,000 vehicles; 2022-2024 ranged 458k-498k.",
"credibility": 93,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Promotional and municipal sources routinely describe the rally as drawing 450,000-500,000+ people annually, with no 2026-specific forecast.",
"credibility": 30,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "US weekly regular gasoline averaged $4.10/gal on 2026-07-27, down $0.40 year-over-year.",
"credibility": 97,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "fred_data",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "University of Michigan consumer sentiment was 49.5 in June 2026, down 12.2 points year-over-year to a very depressed level.",
"credibility": 95,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "fred_data",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "Real disposable personal income (DSPIC96) rose year-over-year as of June 2026, supporting discretionary spending capacity.",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "fred_data",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No 2026-specific attendance forecasts, vendor bookings, or campground/hotel occupancy data",
"No pre-rally early-day traffic counts or SDDOT interim reporting for August 2026",
"No data on 2026 rally weather forecast, a historically large driver of counts",
"No base rate for how milestone-anniversary years revert the following year (only 2015\u21922016 precedent)"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether the \u0027Sturgis Salutes America\u0027/America250 theme adds a demand boost",
"Magnitude of reversion after the 85th-anniversary bump",
"Weather during Aug 7-16, 2026",
"Whether weak consumer sentiment translates into fewer discretionary long-haul trips"
],
"n_evidence": 12
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 38.43,
"plan": 30.03,
"research": 35.02,
"synthesis": 31.98
}
}