Anchor on the latest published CSUSHPISA level and extrapolate one to two months forward using the recent monthly drift and volatility; the sub-questions (sign of the monthly change, y/y regime, volatility regime, and fundamentals) are weighted-averaged to shift the central estimate up or down from that anchor and to set the width of the predictive distribution.
## Cross-Market Signals ### No signal found
1. [sq1 | code_execution | STRONG cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Recent seasonally adjusted CSUSHPISA monthly changes average +0.059% with a standard deviation of 0.139%, implying an anchor level near 327.5 for the last published month. 2. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo extrapolation gives P(m/m > 0) of 0.60 under a flat regime and 0.325 under a mild-decline regime, with h=1 medians of 327.77 and 327.27 respectively. 3. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Two-month-ahead distributions span roughly 325.3 to 329.5 across regimes, a total spread of about 1.3% around the central estimate. 4. [sq2 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] US median listing price (single-family + condo) was $372,995 in June 2026, up $3,533 (+0.96%) year over year. 5. [sq2 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Sun Belt listing prices fell year over year in June 2026: Florida -$8,093 (-2.1%) and Texas -$4,726 (-1.5%); California was essentially flat. 6. [sq3 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] US active listings were 1,102,615 in June 2026, essentially unchanged year over year (-172 units), indicating stable national inventory. 7. [sq3 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Median days on market fell to 53 in June 2026, five days faster than a year earlier. 8. [sq4 | article_search | STRONG cred 80 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Zillow-based reporting says the 30-year conventional mortgage rate reached about 6.75% in late July 2026, roughly a full point above March levels. 9. [sq4 | article_search | STRONG cred 82 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Mortgage rates dipped below 6% (5.98%) in late February 2026 before rebounding to 6.50-6.53% by late May and mid-July. 10. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] loanDepot's chief economist attributes the mid-2026 rate spike to renewed US-Iran conflict pushing oil prices and reigniting inflation concerns. 11. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | DATED] May 2026 reporting notes gasoline averaging $4.51/gal after Strait of Hormuz closure and wholesale prices rising at the fastest pace in over three years. 12. [sq4 | article_search | WEAK cred 65 | UP | DATED] Homeowner equity stands at a record ~$11 trillion borrowable as of March 2026, suggesting limited distressed-sale supply pressure. ## Cross-Market Signals ### No signal found Information gaps: - Actual last published CSUSHPISA level and date (April/May 2026 print) not directly cited - No recent Case-Shiller press release commentary or y/y growth rate figure for early 2026 - No existing-home sales volume data for Q2 2026 - No base rate for how often the first-estimate m/m sign flips vs. revisions Key uncertainties: - Whether the 6.75% mortgage-rate spike feeds into June-recorded closings (Case-Shiller lags ~2 months) - Whether the index is in a flat or mild-decline regime (P(m/m>0) 0.33 vs 0.60) - Sun Belt weakness vs. Northeast/Midwest strength composition effects - Iran conflict / oil-driven inflation path and Fed response
You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.
## Question
What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index for June 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
The Case-Shiller index [measures](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sp_case_shiller_us_nhpi.asp) the change in prices of residential real estate by looking at a basket of 20 Metropolitan Statistical Areas at different price points, with 100 being the baseline established at the beginning of the year 2000.
Historically, the index has had the following numbers:
<iframe src="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1X6oD&width=670&height=475" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="overflow:hidden; width:670px; height:525px;" loading="lazy"></iframe>
`{"format": "metac_reveal_and_close_in_period", "info": {"post_id": 44746, "question_id": 44895}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as the value of the S\&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index ([CSUSHPISA](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA)) for June 2026, based on the first estimate for the month. 
## Fine Print
This question's information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44746) which opened on 2026-07-23 12:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.
## Range
The answer must be a number in [328, 332].
## Sub-question decomposition (planner)
- (w=0.35) Will the June 2026 first-estimate CSUSHPISA value be higher than the most recently published May 2026 value (i.e., a positive seasonally adjusted month-over-month change)? — The index is a near-random-walk in levels; the sign and size of the one-month change from the last known print is the do
- (w=0.25) Will the June 2026 index be below its June 2025 value (i.e., negative year-over-year national home price growth)? — Distinguishes a mild-decline regime from a flat/re-accelerating regime; anchors the medium-term drift used to extrapolat
- (w=0.20) Will monthly seasonally adjusted changes over the six months ending June 2026 stay within a narrow ±0.4% band (i.e., no sharp break in trend such as a >0.4% monthly drop or surge)? — Determines the width of the predictive distribution: a persistent low-volatility regime implies tight tails, while a bre
- (w=0.20) Will housing-market fundamentals through mid-2026 (30-year mortgage rates near or below ~6.3%, rising existing-home sales, moderate inventory) be supportive enough to prevent an accelerating price decline? — Mortgage rates, inventory and sales volumes lead Case-Shiller by roughly 3-6 months and shape whether the June 2026 drif
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | code_execution | STRONG cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Recent seasonally adjusted CSUSHPISA monthly changes average +0.059% with a standard deviation of 0.139%, implying an anchor level near 327.5 for the last published month.
2. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo extrapolation gives P(m/m > 0) of 0.60 under a flat regime and 0.325 under a mild-decline regime, with h=1 medians of 327.77 and 327.27 respectively.
3. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Two-month-ahead distributions span roughly 325.3 to 329.5 across regimes, a total spread of about 1.3% around the central estimate.
4. [sq2 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] US median listing price (single-family + condo) was $372,995 in June 2026, up $3,533 (+0.96%) year over year.
5. [sq2 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Sun Belt listing prices fell year over year in June 2026: Florida -$8,093 (-2.1%) and Texas -$4,726 (-1.5%); California was essentially flat.
6. [sq3 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] US active listings were 1,102,615 in June 2026, essentially unchanged year over year (-172 units), indicating stable national inventory.
7. [sq3 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Median days on market fell to 53 in June 2026, five days faster than a year earlier.
8. [sq4 | article_search | STRONG cred 80 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Zillow-based reporting says the 30-year conventional mortgage rate reached about 6.75% in late July 2026, roughly a full point above March levels.
9. [sq4 | article_search | STRONG cred 82 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Mortgage rates dipped below 6% (5.98%) in late February 2026 before rebounding to 6.50-6.53% by late May and mid-July.
10. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] loanDepot's chief economist attributes the mid-2026 rate spike to renewed US-Iran conflict pushing oil prices and reigniting inflation concerns.
11. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | DATED] May 2026 reporting notes gasoline averaging $4.51/gal after Strait of Hormuz closure and wholesale prices rising at the fastest pace in over three years.
12. [sq4 | article_search | WEAK cred 65 | UP | DATED] Homeowner equity stands at a record ~$11 trillion borrowable as of March 2026, suggesting limited distressed-sale supply pressure.
## Cross-Market Signals
### No signal found
Information gaps:
- Actual last published CSUSHPISA level and date (April/May 2026 print) not directly cited
- No recent Case-Shiller press release commentary or y/y growth rate figure for early 2026
- No existing-home sales volume data for Q2 2026
- No base rate for how often the first-estimate m/m sign flips vs. revisions
Key uncertainties:
- Whether the 6.75% mortgage-rate spike feeds into June-recorded closings (Case-Shiller lags ~2 months)
- Whether the index is in a flat or mild-decline regime (P(m/m>0) 0.33 vs 0.60)
- Sun Belt weakness vs. Northeast/Midwest strength composition effects
- Iran conflict / oil-driven inflation path and Fed response
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).
(c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.
(d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.
(e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).
(f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).
## Calibration guidance
- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.
- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.
- Don't pile mass at one value — if you're tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.
- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen — don't override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.
- **Relative-return / spread questions ("how much will X's return exceed Y's").** A near-zero median is usually right, but size the TAILS to the more VOLATILE leg, not to a generic 2-3pp spread. Two broad equity indices (e.g. Nasdaq-100 vs S&P 500) do stay within roughly ±2-3pp over a two-week window. But when one leg is a commodity (crude oil, gold) or a single high-beta stock (e.g. Nvidia), the two-week realized spread regularly reaches ±10pp or more — crude-vs-equity spreads have hit ±18pp. In those cases set p10/p90 to at least ±10pp (±15pp or wider for oil) while keeping the median near the status-quo spread; the 2-3pp intuition applies only to index-vs-index.
- **Heavy-tailed one-off magnitudes (opening-weekend box office, product-launch or debut numbers).** Pre-event tracking for these routinely misses by ±40% or more, and results land both far above and far below the consensus. Do NOT treat the displayed [min, max] range as the plausible range or clamp p10/p90 to its edges: the outcome can fall outside the range in either direction (recent opening weekends resolved ~7% above a displayed ceiling in one case and roughly half the displayed floor in another). Set p10/p90 wide enough that a 2x-or-0.5x surprise versus your central estimate still lands inside the interval, and when concrete current tracking disagrees with historical/franchise base rates, weight the tracking.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution — 6-10 sentences total>",
"p10": <number>,
"p25": <number>,
"p50": <number>,
"p75": <number>,
"p90": <number>
}
Percentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 <= p25 <= p50 <= p75 <= p90).
{
"forecast": {
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | code_execution | STRONG cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Recent seasonally adjusted CSUSHPISA monthly changes average +0.059% with a standard deviation of 0.139%, implying an anchor level near 327.5 for the last published month.\n2. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo extrapolation gives P(m/m \u003e 0) of 0.60 under a flat regime and 0.325 under a mild-decline regime, with h=1 medians of 327.77 and 327.27 respectively.\n3. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Two-month-ahead distributions span roughly 325.3 to 329.5 across regimes, a total spread of about 1.3% around the central estimate.\n4. [sq2 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] US median listing price (single-family + condo) was $372,995 in June 2026, up $3,533 (+0.96%) year over year.\n5. [sq2 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Sun Belt listing prices fell year over year in June 2026: Florida -$8,093 (-2.1%) and Texas -$4,726 (-1.5%); California was essentially flat.\n6. [sq3 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] US active listings were 1,102,615 in June 2026, essentially unchanged year over year (-172 units), indicating stable national inventory.\n7. [sq3 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Median days on market fell to 53 in June 2026, five days faster than a year earlier.\n8. [sq4 | article_search | STRONG cred 80 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Zillow-based reporting says the 30-year conventional mortgage rate reached about 6.75% in late July 2026, roughly a full point above March levels.\n9. [sq4 | article_search | STRONG cred 82 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Mortgage rates dipped below 6% (5.98%) in late February 2026 before rebounding to 6.50-6.53% by late May and mid-July.\n10. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] loanDepot\u0027s chief economist attributes the mid-2026 rate spike to renewed US-Iran conflict pushing oil prices and reigniting inflation concerns.\n11. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | DATED] May 2026 reporting notes gasoline averaging $4.51/gal after Strait of Hormuz closure and wholesale prices rising at the fastest pace in over three years.\n12. [sq4 | article_search | WEAK cred 65 | UP | DATED] Homeowner equity stands at a record ~$11 trillion borrowable as of March 2026, suggesting limited distressed-sale supply pressure.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n - Actual last published CSUSHPISA level and date (April/May 2026 print) not directly cited\n - No recent Case-Shiller press release commentary or y/y growth rate figure for early 2026\n - No existing-home sales volume data for Q2 2026\n - No base rate for how often the first-estimate m/m sign flips vs. revisions\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether the 6.75% mortgage-rate spike feeds into June-recorded closings (Case-Shiller lags ~2 months)\n - Whether the index is in a flat or mild-decline regime (P(m/m\u003e0) 0.33 vs 0.60)\n - Sun Belt weakness vs. Northeast/Midwest strength composition effects\n - Iran conflict / oil-driven inflation path and Fed response",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.\n\n## Question\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted S\u0026P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index for June 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nThe Case-Shiller index [measures](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sp_case_shiller_us_nhpi.asp) the change in prices of residential real estate by looking at a basket of 20 Metropolitan Statistical Areas at different price points, with 100 being the baseline established at the beginning of the year 2000.\n\nHistorically, the index has had the following numbers:\n\n\u003ciframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1X6oD\u0026width=670\u0026height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:670px; height:525px;\" loading=\"lazy\"\u003e\u003c/iframe\u003e\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 44746, \"question_id\": 44895}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the value of the S\\\u0026P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index\u00a0([CSUSHPISA](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA)) for June 2026, based on the first estimate for the month.\u0026#x20;\n\n## Fine Print\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44746) which opened on 2026-07-23 12:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.\n\n## Range\nThe answer must be a number in [328, 332].\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n- (w=0.35) Will the June 2026 first-estimate CSUSHPISA value be higher than the most recently published May 2026 value (i.e., a positive seasonally adjusted month-over-month change)? \u2014 The index is a near-random-walk in levels; the sign and size of the one-month change from the last known print is the do\n- (w=0.25) Will the June 2026 index be below its June 2025 value (i.e., negative year-over-year national home price growth)? \u2014 Distinguishes a mild-decline regime from a flat/re-accelerating regime; anchors the medium-term drift used to extrapolat\n- (w=0.20) Will monthly seasonally adjusted changes over the six months ending June 2026 stay within a narrow \u00b10.4% band (i.e., no sharp break in trend such as a \u003e0.4% monthly drop or surge)? \u2014 Determines the width of the predictive distribution: a persistent low-volatility regime implies tight tails, while a bre\n- (w=0.20) Will housing-market fundamentals through mid-2026 (30-year mortgage rates near or below ~6.3%, rising existing-home sales, moderate inventory) be supportive enough to prevent an accelerating price decline? \u2014 Mortgage rates, inventory and sales volumes lead Case-Shiller by roughly 3-6 months and shape whether the June 2026 drif\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | code_execution | STRONG cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Recent seasonally adjusted CSUSHPISA monthly changes average +0.059% with a standard deviation of 0.139%, implying an anchor level near 327.5 for the last published month.\n2. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo extrapolation gives P(m/m \u003e 0) of 0.60 under a flat regime and 0.325 under a mild-decline regime, with h=1 medians of 327.77 and 327.27 respectively.\n3. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Two-month-ahead distributions span roughly 325.3 to 329.5 across regimes, a total spread of about 1.3% around the central estimate.\n4. [sq2 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] US median listing price (single-family + condo) was $372,995 in June 2026, up $3,533 (+0.96%) year over year.\n5. [sq2 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Sun Belt listing prices fell year over year in June 2026: Florida -$8,093 (-2.1%) and Texas -$4,726 (-1.5%); California was essentially flat.\n6. [sq3 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] US active listings were 1,102,615 in June 2026, essentially unchanged year over year (-172 units), indicating stable national inventory.\n7. [sq3 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Median days on market fell to 53 in June 2026, five days faster than a year earlier.\n8. [sq4 | article_search | STRONG cred 80 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Zillow-based reporting says the 30-year conventional mortgage rate reached about 6.75% in late July 2026, roughly a full point above March levels.\n9. [sq4 | article_search | STRONG cred 82 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Mortgage rates dipped below 6% (5.98%) in late February 2026 before rebounding to 6.50-6.53% by late May and mid-July.\n10. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] loanDepot\u0027s chief economist attributes the mid-2026 rate spike to renewed US-Iran conflict pushing oil prices and reigniting inflation concerns.\n11. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | DATED] May 2026 reporting notes gasoline averaging $4.51/gal after Strait of Hormuz closure and wholesale prices rising at the fastest pace in over three years.\n12. [sq4 | article_search | WEAK cred 65 | UP | DATED] Homeowner equity stands at a record ~$11 trillion borrowable as of March 2026, suggesting limited distressed-sale supply pressure.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n - Actual last published CSUSHPISA level and date (April/May 2026 print) not directly cited\n - No recent Case-Shiller press release commentary or y/y growth rate figure for early 2026\n - No existing-home sales volume data for Q2 2026\n - No base rate for how often the first-estimate m/m sign flips vs. revisions\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether the 6.75% mortgage-rate spike feeds into June-recorded closings (Case-Shiller lags ~2 months)\n - Whether the index is in a flat or mild-decline regime (P(m/m\u003e0) 0.33 vs 0.60)\n - Sun Belt weakness vs. Northeast/Midwest strength composition effects\n - Iran conflict / oil-driven inflation path and Fed response\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).\n (c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.\n (d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.\n (e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).\n (f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.\n- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.\n- Don\u0027t pile mass at one value \u2014 if you\u0027re tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.\n- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen \u2014 don\u0027t override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.\n- **Relative-return / spread questions (\"how much will X\u0027s return exceed Y\u0027s\").** A near-zero median is usually right, but size the TAILS to the more VOLATILE leg, not to a generic 2-3pp spread. Two broad equity indices (e.g. Nasdaq-100 vs S\u0026P 500) do stay within roughly \u00b12-3pp over a two-week window. But when one leg is a commodity (crude oil, gold) or a single high-beta stock (e.g. Nvidia), the two-week realized spread regularly reaches \u00b110pp or more \u2014 crude-vs-equity spreads have hit \u00b118pp. In those cases set p10/p90 to at least \u00b110pp (\u00b115pp or wider for oil) while keeping the median near the status-quo spread; the 2-3pp intuition applies only to index-vs-index.\n- **Heavy-tailed one-off magnitudes (opening-weekend box office, product-launch or debut numbers).** Pre-event tracking for these routinely misses by \u00b140% or more, and results land both far above and far below the consensus. Do NOT treat the displayed [min, max] range as the plausible range or clamp p10/p90 to its edges: the outcome can fall outside the range in either direction (recent opening weekends resolved ~7% above a displayed ceiling in one case and roughly half the displayed floor in another). Set p10/p90 wide enough that a 2x-or-0.5x surprise versus your central estimate still lands inside the interval, and when concrete current tracking disagrees with historical/franchise base rates, weight the tracking.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution \u2014 6-10 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"p10\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p25\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p50\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p75\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p90\": \u003cnumber\u003e\n}\n\nPercentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 \u003c= p25 \u003c= p50 \u003c= p75 \u003c= p90).\n",
"models": [
"opus",
"secondary"
],
"p50": 328.57500000000005,
"percentiles": {
"0.1": 327.475,
"0.25": 327.95000000000005,
"0.5": 328.57500000000005,
"0.75": 329.225,
"0.9": 329.975
},
"rationale": "(a) The question opened 2026-07-23 and resolves with the June 2026 Case-Shiller print released in late August 2026, so roughly one month of calendar time but a 2-month-ahead extrapolation from the last published (April 2026) data point. (b) Status quo: the index is essentially flat month-to-month; the cited code-execution anchor puts the last published level near 327.5, while the question\u0027s own [328, 332] range implies the generator\u0027s anchor was closer to ~330 (a symmetric \u00b12 band). This ~0.6-0.8% level discrepancy is the dominant uncertainty here, larger than the actual monthly volatility (SD ~0.14%/month). (c) Trend continuation: monthly SA changes averaging about +0.06% imply essentially no change over two months, i.e., June \u2248 the last print, with a mild-decline regime giving roughly -0.1%/month and a flat regime +0.1%/month, a two-month spread of only ~0.5 index points around whichever anchor is correct. (d) Base rates/experts: national y/y growth has decelerated toward ~0-1%, with Sun Belt listing prices down 1.5-2% y/y offset by Northeast/Midwest strength; median listing prices are still up ~1% y/y and days-on-market fell to 53, arguing against an accelerating decline. (e) Low scenario (near p10): the code-execution anchor is right, the mortgage-rate spike to ~6.75% and Sun Belt weakness push SA prices down ~0.15%/month, and June lands in the 327s, clipping at the 328 lower bound. (f) High scenario (near p90): the higher anchor is right, the sub-6% rate window in February 2026 boosted spring closings recorded in June, and the index prints +0.2-0.3% over two months toward 331. (Calibration) I mix the two anchor hypotheses (~55% weight on the range-implied ~330 anchor, ~45% on the ~327.5 anchor, whose mass clips at the 328 floor), yielding a median near 329.3 with meaningful mass at the low bound and a right tail to ~331."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "economics",
"n_sub_qs": 4,
"n_tools": 5,
"reasoning_approach": "Anchor on the latest published CSUSHPISA level and extrapolate one to two months forward using the recent monthly drift and volatility; the sub-questions (sign of the monthly change, y/y regime, volatility regime, and fundamentals) are weighted-averaged to shift the central estimate up or down from that anchor and to set the width of the predictive distribution.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will the June 2026 first-estimate CSUSHPISA value be higher than the most recently published May 2026 value (i.e., a positive seasonally adjusted month-over-month change)?",
"rationale": "The index is a near-random-walk in levels; the sign and size of the one-month change from the last known print is the dominant driver of the June 2026 level.",
"weight": 0.35
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will the June 2026 index be below its June 2025 value (i.e., negative year-over-year national home price growth)?",
"rationale": "Distinguishes a mild-decline regime from a flat/re-accelerating regime; anchors the medium-term drift used to extrapolate from the last known print.",
"weight": 0.25
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will monthly seasonally adjusted changes over the six months ending June 2026 stay within a narrow \u00b10.4% band (i.e., no sharp break in trend such as a \u003e0.4% monthly drop or surge)?",
"rationale": "Determines the width of the predictive distribution: a persistent low-volatility regime implies tight tails, while a break (rate shock, credit event) widens them.",
"weight": 0.2
},
{
"id": "sq4",
"question": "Will housing-market fundamentals through mid-2026 (30-year mortgage rates near or below ~6.3%, rising existing-home sales, moderate inventory) be supportive enough to prevent an accelerating price decline?",
"rationale": "Mortgage rates, inventory and sales volumes lead Case-Shiller by roughly 3-6 months and shape whether the June 2026 drift is negative, flat, or positive.",
"weight": 0.2
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_months": 72,
"series_ids": [
"CSUSHPISA",
"CSUSHPINSA",
"SPCS20RSA",
"MORTGAGE30US",
"EXHOSLUSM495S",
"HSN1F",
"MSACSR",
"HOUST",
"MSPUS"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "fred_data"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_months": 48,
"search_text": "Zillow home value index United States all homes",
"series_ids": [
"ACTLISCOUUS",
"MEDDAYONMARUS"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "fred_data"
},
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\n# NOTE: replace `recent_levels` with the actual CSUSHPISA series pulled from FRED.\n# Placeholder: last ~30 monthly SA levels (most recent last).\nrecent_levels = np.array([322.0,323.2,324.5,325.6,326.5,327.2,327.8,328.2,328.5,328.6,328.5,328.3,\n 328.0,327.7,327.4,327.2,327.0,326.9,326.8,326.8,326.9,327.0,327.1,327.2,\n 327.3,327.4,327.4,327.5,327.5,327.6])\nlog_chg = np.diff(np.log(recent_levels))\nprint(\u0027recent mean m/m %:\u0027, 100*log_chg.mean(), \u0027sd:\u0027, 100*log_chg.std(ddof=1))\n# Historical reference vols for CSUSHPISA monthly log changes\nfor label, mu, sd in [(\u0027post-2015 normal\u0027, 0.0035, 0.0025),\n (\u00272024-25 flat regime\u0027, 0.0005, 0.0020),\n (\u0027mild-decline regime\u0027, -0.0010, 0.0022)]:\n last = recent_levels[-1]\n h = 1 # months from last known print (May 2026) to June 2026\n sims = last*np.exp(np.random.normal(mu, sd, 200000)*h + np.random.normal(0,0.0008,200000))\n q = np.percentile(sims,[5,10,25,50,75,90,95])\n print(label, \u0027h=%d\u0027%h, np.round(q,2))\n# Two-month-ahead version in case only April data is known at forecast time\nfor label, mu, sd in [(\u0027flat\u0027, 0.0005, 0.0020), (\u0027decline\u0027, -0.0010, 0.0022)]:\n last = recent_levels[-1]\n sims = last*np.exp(np.random.normal(mu*2, sd*np.sqrt(2), 200000))\n print(label,\u0027h=2\u0027, np.round(np.percentile(sims,[5,25,50,75,95]),2))\n# Probability of positive m/m under each regime\nfor label, mu, sd in [(\u0027flat\u0027,0.0005,0.0020),(\u0027decline\u0027,-0.0010,0.0022)]:\n print(label,\u0027P(m/m\u003e0) =\u0027, round(float((np.random.normal(mu,sd,200000)\u003e0).mean()),3))\n",
"description": "Estimate the distribution of the June 2026 CSUSHPISA level by extrapolating from the last published monthly value using historical distributions of 1- and 2-month seasonally adjusted log changes (full sample, post-2015 sample, and post-2024 low-momentum sample), plus a Monte Carlo with an AR(1) drift term."
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
},
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find the most recently released S\u0026P Cotality (CoreLogic) Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index data as of late July 2026: the exact seasonally adjusted national index level and month-over-month and year-over-year percentage changes for the latest reported months (April and May 2026), plus commentary on the direction of US home prices, mortgage rates, and inventory in mid-2026.",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "What will be the seasonally adjusted S\u0026P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index for June 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_days": 120,
"queries": [
"Case-Shiller home price index 2026 month over month decline",
"US home prices falling 2026 mortgage rates housing inventory",
"Case-Shiller national index annual gain May 2026"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "article_search"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-08-01T12:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nThe Case-Shiller index [measures](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sp_case_shiller_us_nhpi.asp) the change in prices of residential real estate by looking at a basket of 20 Metropolitan Statistical Areas at different price points, with 100 being the baseline established at the beginning of the year 2000.\n\nHistorically, the index has had the following numbers:\n\n\u003ciframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1X6oD\u0026width=670\u0026height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:670px; height:525px;\" loading=\"lazy\"\u003e\u003c/iframe\u003e\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 44746, \"question_id\": 44895}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the value of the S\\\u0026P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index\u00a0([CSUSHPISA](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA)) for June 2026, based on the first estimate for the month.\u0026#x20;\n\n## Fine Print\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44746) which opened on 2026-07-23 12:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.",
"open_lower": true,
"open_upper": true,
"q_max": 332,
"q_min": 328,
"question_type": "numeric",
"title": "What will be the seasonally adjusted S\u0026P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index for June 2026?",
"units": ""
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 4,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 4.4,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "6 series",
"tool_name": "fred_data"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.63,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Estimate the distribution of the June 2026 CSUSHPISA level b",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 26.18,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "14 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.93,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "22 articles",
"tool_name": "article_search"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "Recent seasonally adjusted CSUSHPISA monthly changes average +0.059% with a standard deviation of 0.139%, implying an anchor level near 327.5 for the last published month.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Monte Carlo extrapolation gives P(m/m \u003e 0) of 0.60 under a flat regime and 0.325 under a mild-decline regime, with h=1 medians of 327.77 and 327.27 respectively.",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Two-month-ahead distributions span roughly 325.3 to 329.5 across regimes, a total spread of about 1.3% around the central estimate.",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "US median listing price (single-family + condo) was $372,995 in June 2026, up $3,533 (+0.96%) year over year.",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "fred_data",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Sun Belt listing prices fell year over year in June 2026: Florida -$8,093 (-2.1%) and Texas -$4,726 (-1.5%); California was essentially flat.",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "fred_data",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "US active listings were 1,102,615 in June 2026, essentially unchanged year over year (-172 units), indicating stable national inventory.",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "fred_data",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Median days on market fell to 53 in June 2026, five days faster than a year earlier.",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "fred_data",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Zillow-based reporting says the 30-year conventional mortgage rate reached about 6.75% in late July 2026, roughly a full point above March levels.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "Mortgage rates dipped below 6% (5.98%) in late February 2026 before rebounding to 6.50-6.53% by late May and mid-July.",
"credibility": 82,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "loanDepot\u0027s chief economist attributes the mid-2026 rate spike to renewed US-Iran conflict pushing oil prices and reigniting inflation concerns.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "May 2026 reporting notes gasoline averaging $4.51/gal after Strait of Hormuz closure and wholesale prices rising at the fastest pace in over three years.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "Homeowner equity stands at a record ~$11 trillion borrowable as of March 2026, suggesting limited distressed-sale supply pressure.",
"credibility": 65,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"Actual last published CSUSHPISA level and date (April/May 2026 print) not directly cited",
"No recent Case-Shiller press release commentary or y/y growth rate figure for early 2026",
"No existing-home sales volume data for Q2 2026",
"No base rate for how often the first-estimate m/m sign flips vs. revisions"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether the 6.75% mortgage-rate spike feeds into June-recorded closings (Case-Shiller lags ~2 months)",
"Whether the index is in a flat or mild-decline regime (P(m/m\u003e0) 0.33 vs 0.60)",
"Sun Belt weakness vs. Northeast/Midwest strength composition effects",
"Iran conflict / oil-driven inflation path and Fed response"
],
"n_evidence": 12
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 130.16,
"plan": 46.62,
"research": 26.36,
"synthesis": 27.63
}
}