Anchor on the latest EIA weekly gasoline level and crude prices, then shift it by the historical late-July-to-mid-August seasonal change plus lagged crude pass-through conditioned on whether the Iran conflict premium persists; the weighted sub-question probabilities calibrate the threshold masses (>=$4.00, direction of change, <$3.60) that shape the final numeric distribution.
## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 1?" → Yes: 0.04, Volume: $156.8K - "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 1?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $162.2K - "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 1?" → Yes: 0.97, Volume: $138.2K - "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 1?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $121.0K - "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on August 1?" → Yes: 1.00, Volume: $92.0K - "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 1?" → Yes: 1.00, Volume: $97.1K - "NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.06, Volume: $168.1K - "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 1?" → Yes: 0.99, Volume: $80.0K
1. [sq1 | fred_data | STRONG cred 97 | UP | VERY_RECENT] EIA weekly U.S. regular gasoline price was $4.096/gal for the week ending July 27, 2026, up $0.095 from the prior week. 2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] AAA national average was $4.106 on July 31, 2026, and flat week-over-week at $4.09 on July 30. 3. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Gasoline rose sharply through July 2026: $3.84 (Jul 9), $3.94 (Jul 16), $4.09 (Jul 23), then $4.09 (Jul 30). 4. [sq2 | fred_data | STRONG cred 95 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Brent crude was $91.82/bbl and WTI $84.25/bbl as of July 27, 2026, with Brent up ~$17 year-over-year. 5. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] AAA on July 30, 2026 said crude remains in the $80/bbl range as instability lingers along the Strait of Hormuz. 6. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The national average was unchanged week-over-week at $4.09 in the July 30 AAA report, ending three weeks of increases. 7. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo model combining late-July level, seasonal drift and crude pass-through yields a median mid-August price of $4.02. 8. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Model estimates P(price >= $4.00 on Aug 17, 2026) = 0.54 with a 10th-90th percentile band of roughly $3.75-$4.29. 9. [sq4 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Model estimates P(price < $3.60 on Aug 17, 2026) = 0.021, requiring a ~50-cent drop in three weeks. 10. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 92 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Regional EIA data show Gulf Coast at $3.690 and West Coast at $5.117, with California at $5.489, week of July 27, 2026. 11. [sq1 | fred_data | WEAK cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] FRED reports GASREGW YoY change as -0.404 while EIA states the July 27 price is $0.973 above a year earlier, an unresolved data conflict. 12. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] U.S. gasoline demand rose to 8.94 million b/d and domestic supply increased to 211.3 million barrels in the week reported July 23, 2026. ## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 1?" → Yes: 0.04, Volume: $156.8K - "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 1?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $162.2K - "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 1?" → Yes: 0.97, Volume: $138.2K - "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 1?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $121.0K - "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on August 1?" → Yes: 1.00, Volume: $92.0K - "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 1?" → Yes: 1.00, Volume: $97.1K - "NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.06, Volume: $168.1K - "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 1?" → Yes: 0.99, Volume: $80.0K Information gaps: - No historical base rate given for late-July to mid-August EIA price change distribution - No crude futures curve / backwardation data to gauge expected Brent path into mid-August - No news after July 31, 2026 on U.S.-Iran conflict status or ceasefire developments - No refinery outage, hurricane-season, or RBOB crack spread data Key uncertainties: - Whether the Hormuz disruption persists, escalates, or de-escalates in August - Lagged pass-through of the recent crude spike still working into retail prices - Potential Gulf Coast hurricane/refinery disruption in August - Speed of retail price decline if crude falls (rockets-and-feathers asymmetry)
You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.
## Question
What will be the average gas price in the U.S. on August 17, 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
CBS News July 20, 2026: [Gas prices top $4 a gallon again as U.S.-Iran conflict escalates, AAA data shows](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/gas-prices-iran-war-oil-supply/)
`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "27881f34ac59fb72", "sheet_id": "147"}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as the average price of U.S. Regular Gasoline in dollars per gallon for August 17, 2026 according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's [Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/) for or closest to that date.
## Range
The answer must be a number in [3.7, 4.3] (units: $).
## Sub-question decomposition (planner)
- (w=0.35) Will the EIA weekly U.S. regular gasoline retail price for the week of/closest to August 17, 2026 be at or above $4.00 per gallon? — The July 2026 news reports prices topping $4; whether that level holds into mid-August is the central threshold for the
- (w=0.30) Will the U.S.-Iran conflict-driven crude oil supply disruption still be materially pushing crude prices (Brent above ~$85/bbl) as of mid-August 2026? — Retail gasoline lags crude by 2-4 weeks; persistence vs. de-escalation of the Iran shock is the dominant upside/downside
- (w=0.20) Will the August 17, 2026 EIA price be HIGHER than the EIA price recorded in the last week of July 2026? — Captures pass-through lag versus normal late-summer seasonal decline; historically mid-August prices drift slightly belo
- (w=0.15) Will the price be below $3.60 per gallon on August 17, 2026 (i.e., a rapid de-escalation/normalization back toward pre-conflict levels)? — Defines the lower tail; geopolitical risk premia in oil often unwind within 4-8 weeks, and refinery/demand fundamentals
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | fred_data | STRONG cred 97 | UP | VERY_RECENT] EIA weekly U.S. regular gasoline price was $4.096/gal for the week ending July 27, 2026, up $0.095 from the prior week.
2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] AAA national average was $4.106 on July 31, 2026, and flat week-over-week at $4.09 on July 30.
3. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Gasoline rose sharply through July 2026: $3.84 (Jul 9), $3.94 (Jul 16), $4.09 (Jul 23), then $4.09 (Jul 30).
4. [sq2 | fred_data | STRONG cred 95 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Brent crude was $91.82/bbl and WTI $84.25/bbl as of July 27, 2026, with Brent up ~$17 year-over-year.
5. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] AAA on July 30, 2026 said crude remains in the $80/bbl range as instability lingers along the Strait of Hormuz.
6. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The national average was unchanged week-over-week at $4.09 in the July 30 AAA report, ending three weeks of increases.
7. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo model combining late-July level, seasonal drift and crude pass-through yields a median mid-August price of $4.02.
8. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Model estimates P(price >= $4.00 on Aug 17, 2026) = 0.54 with a 10th-90th percentile band of roughly $3.75-$4.29.
9. [sq4 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Model estimates P(price < $3.60 on Aug 17, 2026) = 0.021, requiring a ~50-cent drop in three weeks.
10. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 92 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Regional EIA data show Gulf Coast at $3.690 and West Coast at $5.117, with California at $5.489, week of July 27, 2026.
11. [sq1 | fred_data | WEAK cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] FRED reports GASREGW YoY change as -0.404 while EIA states the July 27 price is $0.973 above a year earlier, an unresolved data conflict.
12. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] U.S. gasoline demand rose to 8.94 million b/d and domestic supply increased to 211.3 million barrels in the week reported July 23, 2026.
## Cross-Market Signals
### Polymarket
- "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 1?" → Yes: 0.04, Volume: $156.8K
- "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 1?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $162.2K
- "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 1?" → Yes: 0.97, Volume: $138.2K
- "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 1?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $121.0K
- "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on August 1?" → Yes: 1.00, Volume: $92.0K
- "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 1?" → Yes: 1.00, Volume: $97.1K
- "NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.06, Volume: $168.1K
- "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 1?" → Yes: 0.99, Volume: $80.0K
Information gaps:
- No historical base rate given for late-July to mid-August EIA price change distribution
- No crude futures curve / backwardation data to gauge expected Brent path into mid-August
- No news after July 31, 2026 on U.S.-Iran conflict status or ceasefire developments
- No refinery outage, hurricane-season, or RBOB crack spread data
Key uncertainties:
- Whether the Hormuz disruption persists, escalates, or de-escalates in August
- Lagged pass-through of the recent crude spike still working into retail prices
- Potential Gulf Coast hurricane/refinery disruption in August
- Speed of retail price decline if crude falls (rockets-and-feathers asymmetry)
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).
(c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.
(d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.
(e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).
(f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).
## Calibration guidance
- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.
- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.
- Don't pile mass at one value — if you're tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.
- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen — don't override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.
- **Relative-return / spread questions ("how much will X's return exceed Y's").** A near-zero median is usually right, but size the TAILS to the more VOLATILE leg, not to a generic 2-3pp spread. Two broad equity indices (e.g. Nasdaq-100 vs S&P 500) do stay within roughly ±2-3pp over a two-week window. But when one leg is a commodity (crude oil, gold) or a single high-beta stock (e.g. Nvidia), the two-week realized spread regularly reaches ±10pp or more — crude-vs-equity spreads have hit ±18pp. In those cases set p10/p90 to at least ±10pp (±15pp or wider for oil) while keeping the median near the status-quo spread; the 2-3pp intuition applies only to index-vs-index.
- **Heavy-tailed one-off magnitudes (opening-weekend box office, product-launch or debut numbers).** Pre-event tracking for these routinely misses by ±40% or more, and results land both far above and far below the consensus. Do NOT treat the displayed [min, max] range as the plausible range or clamp p10/p90 to its edges: the outcome can fall outside the range in either direction (recent opening weekends resolved ~7% above a displayed ceiling in one case and roughly half the displayed floor in another). Set p10/p90 wide enough that a 2x-or-0.5x surprise versus your central estimate still lands inside the interval, and when concrete current tracking disagrees with historical/franchise base rates, weight the tracking.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution — 6-10 sentences total>",
"p10": <number>,
"p25": <number>,
"p50": <number>,
"p75": <number>,
"p90": <number>
}
Percentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 <= p25 <= p50 <= p75 <= p90).
{
"forecast": {
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | fred_data | STRONG cred 97 | UP | VERY_RECENT] EIA weekly U.S. regular gasoline price was $4.096/gal for the week ending July 27, 2026, up $0.095 from the prior week.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] AAA national average was $4.106 on July 31, 2026, and flat week-over-week at $4.09 on July 30.\n3. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Gasoline rose sharply through July 2026: $3.84 (Jul 9), $3.94 (Jul 16), $4.09 (Jul 23), then $4.09 (Jul 30).\n4. [sq2 | fred_data | STRONG cred 95 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Brent crude was $91.82/bbl and WTI $84.25/bbl as of July 27, 2026, with Brent up ~$17 year-over-year.\n5. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] AAA on July 30, 2026 said crude remains in the $80/bbl range as instability lingers along the Strait of Hormuz.\n6. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The national average was unchanged week-over-week at $4.09 in the July 30 AAA report, ending three weeks of increases.\n7. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo model combining late-July level, seasonal drift and crude pass-through yields a median mid-August price of $4.02.\n8. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Model estimates P(price \u003e= $4.00 on Aug 17, 2026) = 0.54 with a 10th-90th percentile band of roughly $3.75-$4.29.\n9. [sq4 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Model estimates P(price \u003c $3.60 on Aug 17, 2026) = 0.021, requiring a ~50-cent drop in three weeks.\n10. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 92 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Regional EIA data show Gulf Coast at $3.690 and West Coast at $5.117, with California at $5.489, week of July 27, 2026.\n11. [sq1 | fred_data | WEAK cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] FRED reports GASREGW YoY change as -0.404 while EIA states the July 27 price is $0.973 above a year earlier, an unresolved data conflict.\n12. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] U.S. gasoline demand rose to 8.94 million b/d and domestic supply increased to 211.3 million barrels in the week reported July 23, 2026.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 1?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.04, Volume: $156.8K\n- \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 1?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $162.2K\n- \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 1?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.97, Volume: $138.2K\n- \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 1?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $121.0K\n- \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on August 1?\" \u2192 Yes: 1.00, Volume: $92.0K\n- \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 1?\" \u2192 Yes: 1.00, Volume: $97.1K\n- \"NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.06, Volume: $168.1K\n- \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 1?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.99, Volume: $80.0K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No historical base rate given for late-July to mid-August EIA price change distribution\n - No crude futures curve / backwardation data to gauge expected Brent path into mid-August\n - No news after July 31, 2026 on U.S.-Iran conflict status or ceasefire developments\n - No refinery outage, hurricane-season, or RBOB crack spread data\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether the Hormuz disruption persists, escalates, or de-escalates in August\n - Lagged pass-through of the recent crude spike still working into retail prices\n - Potential Gulf Coast hurricane/refinery disruption in August\n - Speed of retail price decline if crude falls (rockets-and-feathers asymmetry)",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.\n\n## Question\nWhat will be the average gas price in the U.S. on August 17, 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nCBS News July 20, 2026: [Gas prices top $4 a gallon again as U.S.-Iran conflict escalates, AAA data shows](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/gas-prices-iran-war-oil-supply/)\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"27881f34ac59fb72\", \"sheet_id\": \"147\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the average price of U.S. Regular Gasoline in dollars per gallon for August 17, 2026 according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration\u0027s [Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/) for or closest to that date.\n\n## Range\nThe answer must be a number in [3.7, 4.3] (units: $).\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n- (w=0.35) Will the EIA weekly U.S. regular gasoline retail price for the week of/closest to August 17, 2026 be at or above $4.00 per gallon? \u2014 The July 2026 news reports prices topping $4; whether that level holds into mid-August is the central threshold for the \n- (w=0.30) Will the U.S.-Iran conflict-driven crude oil supply disruption still be materially pushing crude prices (Brent above ~$85/bbl) as of mid-August 2026? \u2014 Retail gasoline lags crude by 2-4 weeks; persistence vs. de-escalation of the Iran shock is the dominant upside/downside\n- (w=0.20) Will the August 17, 2026 EIA price be HIGHER than the EIA price recorded in the last week of July 2026? \u2014 Captures pass-through lag versus normal late-summer seasonal decline; historically mid-August prices drift slightly belo\n- (w=0.15) Will the price be below $3.60 per gallon on August 17, 2026 (i.e., a rapid de-escalation/normalization back toward pre-conflict levels)? \u2014 Defines the lower tail; geopolitical risk premia in oil often unwind within 4-8 weeks, and refinery/demand fundamentals \n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | fred_data | STRONG cred 97 | UP | VERY_RECENT] EIA weekly U.S. regular gasoline price was $4.096/gal for the week ending July 27, 2026, up $0.095 from the prior week.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] AAA national average was $4.106 on July 31, 2026, and flat week-over-week at $4.09 on July 30.\n3. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Gasoline rose sharply through July 2026: $3.84 (Jul 9), $3.94 (Jul 16), $4.09 (Jul 23), then $4.09 (Jul 30).\n4. [sq2 | fred_data | STRONG cred 95 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Brent crude was $91.82/bbl and WTI $84.25/bbl as of July 27, 2026, with Brent up ~$17 year-over-year.\n5. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] AAA on July 30, 2026 said crude remains in the $80/bbl range as instability lingers along the Strait of Hormuz.\n6. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The national average was unchanged week-over-week at $4.09 in the July 30 AAA report, ending three weeks of increases.\n7. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo model combining late-July level, seasonal drift and crude pass-through yields a median mid-August price of $4.02.\n8. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Model estimates P(price \u003e= $4.00 on Aug 17, 2026) = 0.54 with a 10th-90th percentile band of roughly $3.75-$4.29.\n9. [sq4 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Model estimates P(price \u003c $3.60 on Aug 17, 2026) = 0.021, requiring a ~50-cent drop in three weeks.\n10. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 92 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Regional EIA data show Gulf Coast at $3.690 and West Coast at $5.117, with California at $5.489, week of July 27, 2026.\n11. [sq1 | fred_data | WEAK cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] FRED reports GASREGW YoY change as -0.404 while EIA states the July 27 price is $0.973 above a year earlier, an unresolved data conflict.\n12. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] U.S. gasoline demand rose to 8.94 million b/d and domestic supply increased to 211.3 million barrels in the week reported July 23, 2026.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 1?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.04, Volume: $156.8K\n- \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 1?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $162.2K\n- \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 1?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.97, Volume: $138.2K\n- \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 1?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $121.0K\n- \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on August 1?\" \u2192 Yes: 1.00, Volume: $92.0K\n- \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 1?\" \u2192 Yes: 1.00, Volume: $97.1K\n- \"NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.06, Volume: $168.1K\n- \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 1?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.99, Volume: $80.0K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No historical base rate given for late-July to mid-August EIA price change distribution\n - No crude futures curve / backwardation data to gauge expected Brent path into mid-August\n - No news after July 31, 2026 on U.S.-Iran conflict status or ceasefire developments\n - No refinery outage, hurricane-season, or RBOB crack spread data\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether the Hormuz disruption persists, escalates, or de-escalates in August\n - Lagged pass-through of the recent crude spike still working into retail prices\n - Potential Gulf Coast hurricane/refinery disruption in August\n - Speed of retail price decline if crude falls (rockets-and-feathers asymmetry)\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).\n (c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.\n (d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.\n (e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).\n (f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.\n- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.\n- Don\u0027t pile mass at one value \u2014 if you\u0027re tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.\n- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen \u2014 don\u0027t override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.\n- **Relative-return / spread questions (\"how much will X\u0027s return exceed Y\u0027s\").** A near-zero median is usually right, but size the TAILS to the more VOLATILE leg, not to a generic 2-3pp spread. Two broad equity indices (e.g. Nasdaq-100 vs S\u0026P 500) do stay within roughly \u00b12-3pp over a two-week window. But when one leg is a commodity (crude oil, gold) or a single high-beta stock (e.g. Nvidia), the two-week realized spread regularly reaches \u00b110pp or more \u2014 crude-vs-equity spreads have hit \u00b118pp. In those cases set p10/p90 to at least \u00b110pp (\u00b115pp or wider for oil) while keeping the median near the status-quo spread; the 2-3pp intuition applies only to index-vs-index.\n- **Heavy-tailed one-off magnitudes (opening-weekend box office, product-launch or debut numbers).** Pre-event tracking for these routinely misses by \u00b140% or more, and results land both far above and far below the consensus. Do NOT treat the displayed [min, max] range as the plausible range or clamp p10/p90 to its edges: the outcome can fall outside the range in either direction (recent opening weekends resolved ~7% above a displayed ceiling in one case and roughly half the displayed floor in another). Set p10/p90 wide enough that a 2x-or-0.5x surprise versus your central estimate still lands inside the interval, and when concrete current tracking disagrees with historical/franchise base rates, weight the tracking.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution \u2014 6-10 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"p10\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p25\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p50\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p75\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p90\": \u003cnumber\u003e\n}\n\nPercentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 \u003c= p25 \u003c= p50 \u003c= p75 \u003c= p90).\n",
"models": [
"opus",
"secondary"
],
"p50": 4.045,
"percentiles": {
"0.1": 3.795,
"0.25": 3.94,
"0.5": 4.045,
"0.75": 4.15,
"0.9": 4.25
},
"rationale": "(a) About 2.5 weeks separate the latest data (EIA week ending July 27 at $4.096; AAA $4.106 on July 31) from the Aug 17 resolution date, so this is a short-horizon question dominated by the status quo. (b) If nothing changes, the EIA weekly figure closest to Aug 17 prints near $4.05-$4.10. (c) The trend flattened: three weeks of increases ended with an unchanged $4.09 reading on July 30, while crude at Brent ~$92 still implies some residual upward pass-through; competing seasonal drift in mid-August is typically flat to slightly negative (a few cents). (d) A Monte Carlo synthesis gives a median of $4.02 with P(\u003e=$4.00) ~0.54 and a 10-90 band of roughly $3.75-$4.29; no liquid market prices this directly, so I anchor on that but shade slightly toward the sticky-retail \u0027feathers\u0027 behavior that resists fast declines. (e) LOW scenario (~p10): a Hormuz ceasefire/de-escalation in early August unwinds the risk premium, Brent falls to the low $70s, and retail slides 25-30 cents by Aug 17 to ~$3.80, with high inventories (211.3 mb) and Gulf Coast already at $3.69 helping the national average down. (f) HIGH scenario (~p90): the conflict escalates or a Gulf hurricane/refinery outage hits, Brent pushes into the high $90s-$100s, and lagged pass-through plus a crack-spread spike lift the national average to ~$4.20-$4.30. Retail gasoline is sticky downward, so I place the median at $4.03, just below the current level, with a modest right skew truncated by the $4.30 cap and a fat-ish left tail for rapid de-escalation."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "economics",
"n_sub_qs": 4,
"n_tools": 4,
"reasoning_approach": "Anchor on the latest EIA weekly gasoline level and crude prices, then shift it by the historical late-July-to-mid-August seasonal change plus lagged crude pass-through conditioned on whether the Iran conflict premium persists; the weighted sub-question probabilities calibrate the threshold masses (\u003e=$4.00, direction of change, \u003c$3.60) that shape the final numeric distribution.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will the EIA weekly U.S. regular gasoline retail price for the week of/closest to August 17, 2026 be at or above $4.00 per gallon?",
"rationale": "The July 2026 news reports prices topping $4; whether that level holds into mid-August is the central threshold for the numeric distribution\u0027s center of mass.",
"weight": 0.35
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will the U.S.-Iran conflict-driven crude oil supply disruption still be materially pushing crude prices (Brent above ~$85/bbl) as of mid-August 2026?",
"rationale": "Retail gasoline lags crude by 2-4 weeks; persistence vs. de-escalation of the Iran shock is the dominant upside/downside driver for the August level.",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will the August 17, 2026 EIA price be HIGHER than the EIA price recorded in the last week of July 2026?",
"rationale": "Captures pass-through lag versus normal late-summer seasonal decline; historically mid-August prices drift slightly below late-July absent new shocks, but a fresh crude spike reverses this.",
"weight": 0.2
},
{
"id": "sq4",
"question": "Will the price be below $3.60 per gallon on August 17, 2026 (i.e., a rapid de-escalation/normalization back toward pre-conflict levels)?",
"rationale": "Defines the lower tail; geopolitical risk premia in oil often unwind within 4-8 weeks, and refinery/demand fundamentals could pull prices down quickly.",
"weight": 0.15
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_months": 30,
"search_text": "US regular conventional retail gasoline price weekly",
"series_ids": [
"GASREGW",
"GASREGCOVW",
"DCOILWTICO",
"DCOILBRENTEU",
"WCOILWTICO"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "fred_data"
},
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np, pandas as pd\n# Historical base rates: distribution of the change in weekly US regular gasoline price\n# from the last week of July to the week nearest Aug 17, using EIA/FRED history 1995-2025.\n# Placeholder arrays to be replaced with fetched GASREGW data; compute mean, sd, quantiles\n# of (Aug17 price - lateJuly price) and of pass-through elasticity to crude.\n# Also run a Monte Carlo: P_aug = P_july + drift + beta*crude_shock + noise\nnp.random.seed(0)\nP_july = 4.05 # placeholder, update from data\ndrift = np.random.normal(-0.03, 0.06, 100000) # typical late-July-\u003emid-Aug seasonal change\ncrude_shock = np.random.normal(0.0, 0.20, 100000) # $/gal equivalent from Iran conflict path\nP_aug = P_july + drift + crude_shock\nprint(np.percentile(P_aug,[5,10,25,50,75,90,95]))\nprint(\u0027P\u003e=4.00\u0027, (P_aug\u003e=4).mean(), \u0027P\u003c3.60\u0027, (P_aug\u003c3.6).mean())",
"description": "Estimate the distribution of the mid-August gasoline price from late-July level plus historical seasonal change and crude-shock pass-through; produce quantiles and threshold probabilities."
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
},
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find the most recent U.S. average retail gasoline price (AAA national average and EIA weekly Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update) in July 2026, plus current Brent and WTI crude prices, and the latest status of the U.S.-Iran conflict and any Strait of Hormuz or Iranian oil export disruption, including analyst forecasts for gasoline prices in August 2026.",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "What will be the average gas price in the U.S. on August 17, 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"AAA national average gas price today July 2026",
"EIA weekly retail gasoline price update July 2026",
"oil price forecast August 2026 Iran conflict Brent"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-08-01T06:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nCBS News July 20, 2026: [Gas prices top $4 a gallon again as U.S.-Iran conflict escalates, AAA data shows](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/gas-prices-iran-war-oil-supply/)\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"27881f34ac59fb72\", \"sheet_id\": \"147\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the average price of U.S. Regular Gasoline in dollars per gallon for August 17, 2026 according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration\u0027s [Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/) for or closest to that date.",
"open_lower": true,
"open_upper": true,
"q_max": 4.3,
"q_min": 3.7,
"question_type": "numeric",
"title": "What will be the average gas price in the U.S. on August 17, 2026?",
"units": "$"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 1?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.04, Volume: $156.8K\n- \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 1?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $162.2K\n- \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 1?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.97, Volume: $138.2K\n- \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 1?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $121.0K\n- \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on August 1?\" \u2192 Yes: 1.00, Volume: $92.0K\n- \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 1?\" \u2192 Yes: 1.00, Volume: $97.1K\n- \"NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.06, Volume: $168.1K\n- \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 1?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.99, Volume: $80.0K",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 4,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 3.52,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "8 series",
"tool_name": "fred_data"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.29,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Estimate the distribution of the mid-August gasoline price f",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 19.59,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "16 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 33.4,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "0 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "EIA weekly U.S. regular gasoline price was $4.096/gal for the week ending July 27, 2026, up $0.095 from the prior week.",
"credibility": 97,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "fred_data",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "AAA national average was $4.106 on July 31, 2026, and flat week-over-week at $4.09 on July 30.",
"credibility": 88,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Gasoline rose sharply through July 2026: $3.84 (Jul 9), $3.94 (Jul 16), $4.09 (Jul 23), then $4.09 (Jul 30).",
"credibility": 88,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Brent crude was $91.82/bbl and WTI $84.25/bbl as of July 27, 2026, with Brent up ~$17 year-over-year.",
"credibility": 95,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "fred_data",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "AAA on July 30, 2026 said crude remains in the $80/bbl range as instability lingers along the Strait of Hormuz.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "The national average was unchanged week-over-week at $4.09 in the July 30 AAA report, ending three weeks of increases.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Monte Carlo model combining late-July level, seasonal drift and crude pass-through yields a median mid-August price of $4.02.",
"credibility": 45,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Model estimates P(price \u003e= $4.00 on Aug 17, 2026) = 0.54 with a 10th-90th percentile band of roughly $3.75-$4.29.",
"credibility": 45,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Model estimates P(price \u003c $3.60 on Aug 17, 2026) = 0.021, requiring a ~50-cent drop in three weeks.",
"credibility": 45,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "Regional EIA data show Gulf Coast at $3.690 and West Coast at $5.117, with California at $5.489, week of July 27, 2026.",
"credibility": 92,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "FRED reports GASREGW YoY change as -0.404 while EIA states the July 27 price is $0.973 above a year earlier, an unresolved data conflict.",
"credibility": 40,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "fred_data",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "U.S. gasoline demand rose to 8.94 million b/d and domestic supply increased to 211.3 million barrels in the week reported July 23, 2026.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No historical base rate given for late-July to mid-August EIA price change distribution",
"No crude futures curve / backwardation data to gauge expected Brent path into mid-August",
"No news after July 31, 2026 on U.S.-Iran conflict status or ceasefire developments",
"No refinery outage, hurricane-season, or RBOB crack spread data"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether the Hormuz disruption persists, escalates, or de-escalates in August",
"Lagged pass-through of the recent crude spike still working into retail prices",
"Potential Gulf Coast hurricane/refinery disruption in August",
"Speed of retail price decline if crude falls (rockets-and-feathers asymmetry)"
],
"n_evidence": 12
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 28.07,
"plan": 26.79,
"research": 33.45,
"synthesis": 27.56
}
}