Anchor on the historical base rate for a defending multi-year champion repeating (sq2) conditional on participation (sq1), then shade the residual probability mass across named contenders and 'Other' using the first-time-winner rate (sq3) and the home-field Japan effect (sq4), blending these weighted signals into a final distribution.
## Cross-Market Signals ### No signal found
1. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | DATED] Mir Kim (South Korea) has won WYYC Division 1A three consecutive times (2023, 2024, 2025), defending the title in Prague in 2025. 2. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] Mir Kim is only the second player in 1A history to win more than twice, after Hiroyuki Suzuki, indicating exceptional dominance. 3. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] Mir Kim set the record 1A freestyle score of 99.7/100 at WYYC 2023 in Osaka. 4. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Historical WYYC 1A back-to-back repeat champion rate computed at roughly 36% (4 of 11 transitions in the sampled dataset). 5. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Historical rate of a first-time (never-before-1A-champion) winner computed at approximately 58% in the sampled WYYC 1A history. 6. [sq4 | code_execution | WEAK cred 50 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Historical rate of a Japanese 1A world champion computed at approximately 25% in the sampled dataset. 7. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 92 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] The 2026 WYYC is confirmed for Arcrea Himeji, Japan, August 13-16, 2026, with contestant registration having opened June 19. 8. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No published list of confirmed 2026 Division 1A competitors was found, and no source addresses Mir Kim's 2026 participation plans. 9. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 70 | UP | DATED] Mir Kim, born circa 2007-2008, competes for YoYoFactory alongside his sister and has an active signature yo-yo line. 10. [sq4 | web_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] The 2026 Japan National Yo-Yo Contest was held June 6-7, 2026 in Yokohama, with the winner earning a WYYC seed; the 1A results were not retrieved. 11. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | NEUTRAL | DATED] The 2026 contest is being held in Japan, historically the largest source of 1A competitors, with the host national organization co-running the event. 12. [sq2 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Wikipedia confirms WYYC is the only event awarding World Yo-Yo Champion titles across six championship divisions, run by the IYYF. ## Cross-Market Signals ### No signal found Information gaps: - No confirmed 2026 Division 1A entry list or Mir Kim registration confirmation - 2026 Japan National 1A winner and other national/regional 2026 results unknown - No data on 2026-season contest results (e.g., Korea Nationals, EYYC, Asia Pacific) to gauge current form - No named list of alternative contenders the question offers as options Key uncertainties: - Whether Mir Kim registers and competes vs. judges/absent - Age/eligibility or seeding changes affecting Kim - Home-crowd/judging dynamics favoring Japanese contenders in Himeji - High variance of single-freestyle judged competition
You are an elite superforecaster. Estimate the probability of each option for this Metaculus multiple-choice question.
## Question
Who will win Division 1A in the 2026 World Yo-Yo Contest?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
The [World Yo-Yo Contest](https://worldyoyocontest.org/) is the final competition in the worldwide competitive Yo-Yo circuit, with winners of each of the 6 championship divisions declared World Yo-Yo Champions.
With unofficial championships held every year since 1992, and the official championship held every year since 2013, the 2026 championships are [set to be held](https://worldyoyocontest.org/faq/) August 13-16 2026, in Himeji, Japan.
[Division 1A](https://yoyoarchive.org/articles/the-evolution-of-the-spin-a-guide-to-competitive-yo-yo-play-styles), which utilizes a single unresponsive Yo-Yo to perform "string tricks", is widely regarded as the most prestigious division at the event. Since 2023, Mir Kim has been the Division 1A world champion, though he also won the unofficial online championship in both 2021 and 2022.
`{"format": "metac_reveal_and_close_in_period", "info": {"post_id": 44790, "question_id": 44937}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve as the winner of Division 1A in the 2026 World Yo-Yo Contest.
## Fine Print
If someone other than one of the listed individuals wins, this question will resolve as Other.
If the 2026 World Yo-Yo Contest is not held before September 1, 2026, this question will be annulled.
***
This question's information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44790) which opened on 2026-07-27 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.
## Options
- Mir Kim
- Hunter Feuerstein
- Chandler Steele
- Jakub Dolejš
- Allon Chen
- Ryuichi Nakamura
- Other
## Sub-question decomposition (planner)
- (w=0.20) Will Mir Kim compete in Division 1A at the 2026 World Yo-Yo Contest (i.e., be registered/announced as a competitor rather than absent or judging)? — The defending 3-peat champion is the dominant favorite only if he actually competes; top players sometimes skip or retir
- (w=0.40) Will Mir Kim win Division 1A at the 2026 World Yo-Yo Contest? — Directly determines the modal outcome; he has won 2023, 2024, 2025 (plus 2021-22 online), making repeat-champion base ra
- (w=0.20) Will the 2026 Division 1A world champion be a competitor who has never previously won a WYYC 1A title? — Historical base rate of first-time winners vs. repeat champions calibrates how much probability to assign to 'Other' and
- (w=0.20) Will the 2026 Division 1A champion be a Japanese competitor? — The contest is in Himeji, Japan; home-country turnout and travel advantage historically boosts Japanese contenders (Miur
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | DATED] Mir Kim (South Korea) has won WYYC Division 1A three consecutive times (2023, 2024, 2025), defending the title in Prague in 2025.
2. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] Mir Kim is only the second player in 1A history to win more than twice, after Hiroyuki Suzuki, indicating exceptional dominance.
3. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] Mir Kim set the record 1A freestyle score of 99.7/100 at WYYC 2023 in Osaka.
4. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Historical WYYC 1A back-to-back repeat champion rate computed at roughly 36% (4 of 11 transitions in the sampled dataset).
5. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Historical rate of a first-time (never-before-1A-champion) winner computed at approximately 58% in the sampled WYYC 1A history.
6. [sq4 | code_execution | WEAK cred 50 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Historical rate of a Japanese 1A world champion computed at approximately 25% in the sampled dataset.
7. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 92 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] The 2026 WYYC is confirmed for Arcrea Himeji, Japan, August 13-16, 2026, with contestant registration having opened June 19.
8. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No published list of confirmed 2026 Division 1A competitors was found, and no source addresses Mir Kim's 2026 participation plans.
9. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 70 | UP | DATED] Mir Kim, born circa 2007-2008, competes for YoYoFactory alongside his sister and has an active signature yo-yo line.
10. [sq4 | web_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] The 2026 Japan National Yo-Yo Contest was held June 6-7, 2026 in Yokohama, with the winner earning a WYYC seed; the 1A results were not retrieved.
11. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | NEUTRAL | DATED] The 2026 contest is being held in Japan, historically the largest source of 1A competitors, with the host national organization co-running the event.
12. [sq2 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Wikipedia confirms WYYC is the only event awarding World Yo-Yo Champion titles across six championship divisions, run by the IYYF.
## Cross-Market Signals
### No signal found
Information gaps:
- No confirmed 2026 Division 1A entry list or Mir Kim registration confirmation
- 2026 Japan National 1A winner and other national/regional 2026 results unknown
- No data on 2026-season contest results (e.g., Korea Nationals, EYYC, Asia Pacific) to gauge current form
- No named list of alternative contenders the question offers as options
Key uncertainties:
- Whether Mir Kim registers and competes vs. judges/absent
- Age/eligibility or seeding changes affecting Kim
- Home-crowd/judging dynamics favoring Japanese contenders in Himeji
- High variance of single-freestyle judged competition
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving probabilities, address these explicitly in your rationale:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The status quo outcome — the option most likely if nothing changes from today.
(c) An outcome that would be SURPRISING but plausible.
## Calibration guidance
- **Status quo anchoring.** Good forecasters put extra weight on the status quo option because the world changes slowly most of the time.
- **Leave moderate probability on most options.** Good forecasters don't drop options to ~0% — leave ≥3-5% on every option to account for unexpected outcomes, unless you have strong specific evidence ruling them out.
- Avoid uniform-distribution laziness — most options are not equally likely.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) for these options appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong prior and stay close to them absent specific contrary evidence.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) above, then explain your distribution — 4-7 sentences total>",
"probabilities": {
"Mir Kim": <prob>,
"Hunter Feuerstein": <prob>,
"Chandler Steele": <prob>,
"Jakub Dolejš": <prob>,
"Allon Chen": <prob>,
"Ryuichi Nakamura": <prob>,
"Other": <prob>
}
}
Probabilities MUST sum to ~1.0 (renormalization is applied; close enough is fine).
{
"forecast": {
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | DATED] Mir Kim (South Korea) has won WYYC Division 1A three consecutive times (2023, 2024, 2025), defending the title in Prague in 2025.\n2. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] Mir Kim is only the second player in 1A history to win more than twice, after Hiroyuki Suzuki, indicating exceptional dominance.\n3. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] Mir Kim set the record 1A freestyle score of 99.7/100 at WYYC 2023 in Osaka.\n4. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Historical WYYC 1A back-to-back repeat champion rate computed at roughly 36% (4 of 11 transitions in the sampled dataset).\n5. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Historical rate of a first-time (never-before-1A-champion) winner computed at approximately 58% in the sampled WYYC 1A history.\n6. [sq4 | code_execution | WEAK cred 50 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Historical rate of a Japanese 1A world champion computed at approximately 25% in the sampled dataset.\n7. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 92 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] The 2026 WYYC is confirmed for Arcrea Himeji, Japan, August 13-16, 2026, with contestant registration having opened June 19.\n8. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No published list of confirmed 2026 Division 1A competitors was found, and no source addresses Mir Kim\u0027s 2026 participation plans.\n9. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 70 | UP | DATED] Mir Kim, born circa 2007-2008, competes for YoYoFactory alongside his sister and has an active signature yo-yo line.\n10. [sq4 | web_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] The 2026 Japan National Yo-Yo Contest was held June 6-7, 2026 in Yokohama, with the winner earning a WYYC seed; the 1A results were not retrieved.\n11. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | NEUTRAL | DATED] The 2026 contest is being held in Japan, historically the largest source of 1A competitors, with the host national organization co-running the event.\n12. [sq2 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Wikipedia confirms WYYC is the only event awarding World Yo-Yo Champion titles across six championship divisions, run by the IYYF.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No confirmed 2026 Division 1A entry list or Mir Kim registration confirmation\n - 2026 Japan National 1A winner and other national/regional 2026 results unknown\n - No data on 2026-season contest results (e.g., Korea Nationals, EYYC, Asia Pacific) to gauge current form\n - No named list of alternative contenders the question offers as options\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether Mir Kim registers and competes vs. judges/absent\n - Age/eligibility or seeding changes affecting Kim\n - Home-crowd/judging dynamics favoring Japanese contenders in Himeji\n - High variance of single-freestyle judged competition",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Estimate the probability of each option for this Metaculus multiple-choice question.\n\n## Question\nWho will win Division 1A in the 2026 World Yo-Yo Contest?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nThe [World Yo-Yo Contest](https://worldyoyocontest.org/) is the final competition in the worldwide competitive Yo-Yo circuit, with winners of each of the 6 championship divisions declared World Yo-Yo Champions.\n\nWith unofficial championships held every year since 1992, and the official championship held every year since 2013, the 2026 championships are [set to be held](https://worldyoyocontest.org/faq/) August 13-16 2026, in Himeji, Japan.\n\n[Division 1A](https://yoyoarchive.org/articles/the-evolution-of-the-spin-a-guide-to-competitive-yo-yo-play-styles), which utilizes a single unresponsive Yo-Yo to perform \"string tricks\", is widely regarded as the most prestigious division at the event. Since 2023, Mir Kim has been the Division 1A world champion, though he also won the unofficial online championship in both 2021 and 2022.\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 44790, \"question_id\": 44937}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question will resolve as the winner of Division 1A in the 2026 World Yo-Yo Contest.\n\n## Fine Print\nIf someone other than one of the listed individuals wins, this question will resolve as Other.\n\nIf the 2026 World Yo-Yo Contest is not held before September 1, 2026, this question will be annulled.\n\n***\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44790) which opened on 2026-07-27 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.\n\n## Options\n - Mir Kim\n - Hunter Feuerstein\n - Chandler Steele\n - Jakub Dolej\u0161\n - Allon Chen\n - Ryuichi Nakamura\n - Other\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n- (w=0.20) Will Mir Kim compete in Division 1A at the 2026 World Yo-Yo Contest (i.e., be registered/announced as a competitor rather than absent or judging)? \u2014 The defending 3-peat champion is the dominant favorite only if he actually competes; top players sometimes skip or retir\n- (w=0.40) Will Mir Kim win Division 1A at the 2026 World Yo-Yo Contest? \u2014 Directly determines the modal outcome; he has won 2023, 2024, 2025 (plus 2021-22 online), making repeat-champion base ra\n- (w=0.20) Will the 2026 Division 1A world champion be a competitor who has never previously won a WYYC 1A title? \u2014 Historical base rate of first-time winners vs. repeat champions calibrates how much probability to assign to \u0027Other\u0027 and\n- (w=0.20) Will the 2026 Division 1A champion be a Japanese competitor? \u2014 The contest is in Himeji, Japan; home-country turnout and travel advantage historically boosts Japanese contenders (Miur\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | DATED] Mir Kim (South Korea) has won WYYC Division 1A three consecutive times (2023, 2024, 2025), defending the title in Prague in 2025.\n2. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] Mir Kim is only the second player in 1A history to win more than twice, after Hiroyuki Suzuki, indicating exceptional dominance.\n3. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] Mir Kim set the record 1A freestyle score of 99.7/100 at WYYC 2023 in Osaka.\n4. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Historical WYYC 1A back-to-back repeat champion rate computed at roughly 36% (4 of 11 transitions in the sampled dataset).\n5. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Historical rate of a first-time (never-before-1A-champion) winner computed at approximately 58% in the sampled WYYC 1A history.\n6. [sq4 | code_execution | WEAK cred 50 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Historical rate of a Japanese 1A world champion computed at approximately 25% in the sampled dataset.\n7. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 92 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] The 2026 WYYC is confirmed for Arcrea Himeji, Japan, August 13-16, 2026, with contestant registration having opened June 19.\n8. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No published list of confirmed 2026 Division 1A competitors was found, and no source addresses Mir Kim\u0027s 2026 participation plans.\n9. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 70 | UP | DATED] Mir Kim, born circa 2007-2008, competes for YoYoFactory alongside his sister and has an active signature yo-yo line.\n10. [sq4 | web_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] The 2026 Japan National Yo-Yo Contest was held June 6-7, 2026 in Yokohama, with the winner earning a WYYC seed; the 1A results were not retrieved.\n11. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | NEUTRAL | DATED] The 2026 contest is being held in Japan, historically the largest source of 1A competitors, with the host national organization co-running the event.\n12. [sq2 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Wikipedia confirms WYYC is the only event awarding World Yo-Yo Champion titles across six championship divisions, run by the IYYF.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No confirmed 2026 Division 1A entry list or Mir Kim registration confirmation\n - 2026 Japan National 1A winner and other national/regional 2026 results unknown\n - No data on 2026-season contest results (e.g., Korea Nationals, EYYC, Asia Pacific) to gauge current form\n - No named list of alternative contenders the question offers as options\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether Mir Kim registers and competes vs. judges/absent\n - Age/eligibility or seeding changes affecting Kim\n - Home-crowd/judging dynamics favoring Japanese contenders in Himeji\n - High variance of single-freestyle judged competition\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving probabilities, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The status quo outcome \u2014 the option most likely if nothing changes from today.\n (c) An outcome that would be SURPRISING but plausible.\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Status quo anchoring.** Good forecasters put extra weight on the status quo option because the world changes slowly most of the time.\n- **Leave moderate probability on most options.** Good forecasters don\u0027t drop options to ~0% \u2014 leave \u22653-5% on every option to account for unexpected outcomes, unless you have strong specific evidence ruling them out.\n- Avoid uniform-distribution laziness \u2014 most options are not equally likely.\n- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) for these options appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong prior and stay close to them absent specific contrary evidence.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) (b) (c) above, then explain your distribution \u2014 4-7 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"probabilities\": {\n \"Mir Kim\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Hunter Feuerstein\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Chandler Steele\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Jakub Dolej\u0161\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Allon Chen\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Ryuichi Nakamura\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Other\": \u003cprob\u003e\n }\n}\n\nProbabilities MUST sum to ~1.0 (renormalization is applied; close enough is fine).\n",
"models": [
"opus",
"secondary"
],
"probabilities": {
"Allon Chen": 0.05,
"Chandler Steele": 0.0625,
"Hunter Feuerstein": 0.08499999999999999,
"Jakub Dolej\u0161": 0.052500000000000005,
"Mir Kim": 0.44499999999999995,
"Other": 0.2325,
"Ryuichi Nakamura": 0.07250000000000001
},
"rationale": "(a) The contest runs Aug 13-16, 2026, roughly two to three weeks after this question opened, so almost no time for the field to change; registration is already open and rosters largely set. (b) Status quo is Mir Kim winning a fourth consecutive 1A title \u2014 he has won 2023, 2024, 2025 (plus the 2021-22 online events), holds the record 99.7 freestyle score, is young (b. ~2007-08), sponsored, and has shown no sign of retiring. (c) A surprising but plausible outcome would be a Japanese competitor winning on home soil in Himeji (Japan historically supplies ~25% of 1A champions and sends its deepest field domestically), or Kim simply not competing/being upset by a first-time winner \u2014 historically ~58% of champions were first-timers and only ~36% of transitions were back-to-back repeats, though those base rates predate Kim\u0027s unusual dominance. I weight Kim well above the naive repeat base rate (~47%) because he is a generational outlier, but below 60% because 1A is a single judged freestyle with high variance, home-crowd/judging dynamics may favor Japanese players, and his participation is unconfirmed. The named alternatives are presumably recent podium finishers/national champions and each deserves modest single-digit probability, with Ryuichi Nakamura nudged up slightly for the Japan venue. \u0027Other\u0027 gets a substantial ~20% because the deep Japanese field (and other unlisted contenders like Evan Nagao or emerging players) collectively represents a large share of realistic non-Kim outcomes.",
"top_option": "Mir Kim"
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "culture",
"n_sub_qs": 4,
"n_tools": 4,
"reasoning_approach": "Anchor on the historical base rate for a defending multi-year champion repeating (sq2) conditional on participation (sq1), then shade the residual probability mass across named contenders and \u0027Other\u0027 using the first-time-winner rate (sq3) and the home-field Japan effect (sq4), blending these weighted signals into a final distribution.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will Mir Kim compete in Division 1A at the 2026 World Yo-Yo Contest (i.e., be registered/announced as a competitor rather than absent or judging)?",
"rationale": "The defending 3-peat champion is the dominant favorite only if he actually competes; top players sometimes skip or retire from competition.",
"weight": 0.2
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will Mir Kim win Division 1A at the 2026 World Yo-Yo Contest?",
"rationale": "Directly determines the modal outcome; he has won 2023, 2024, 2025 (plus 2021-22 online), making repeat-champion base rates the core driver.",
"weight": 0.4
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will the 2026 Division 1A world champion be a competitor who has never previously won a WYYC 1A title?",
"rationale": "Historical base rate of first-time winners vs. repeat champions calibrates how much probability to assign to \u0027Other\u0027 and to rising contenders.",
"weight": 0.2
},
{
"id": "sq4",
"question": "Will the 2026 Division 1A champion be a Japanese competitor?",
"rationale": "The contest is in Himeji, Japan; home-country turnout and travel advantage historically boosts Japanese contenders (Miura, Araya, Matsuura, etc.), which shapes the non-Mir-Kim probability mass.",
"weight": 0.2
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"World Yo-Yo Contest",
"List of World Yo-Yo Contest champions",
"Mir Kim yo-yo",
"Evan Nagao",
"Hajime Miura"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "wikipedia_lookup"
},
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find the current state of competitive 1A yo-yo heading into the August 2026 World Yo-Yo Contest in Himeji, Japan: 2026 national contest results (Japan National Yo-Yo Contest, US National Yo-Yo Contest, Asia Pacific / European championships), whether Mir Kim is registered/competing in 2026, any retirement or absence announcements, top-ranked 1A contenders (Shion Araya, Hajime Miura, Evan Nagao, Takeshi Matsuura, Gentry Stein, Riccardo Fraolini, Kai Yang), and any prior-year WYYC 2025 final rankings.",
"max_searches": 5,
"question_title": "Who will win Division 1A in the 2026 World Yo-Yo Contest?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"2026 World Yo-Yo Contest Himeji 1A competitors registration",
"Mir Kim yo-yo 2026 competing",
"2026 Japan National Yo-Yo Contest 1A results"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\n# Historical WYYC 1A champions (official + widely recognized) by year and nationality\nchamps = {\n 2013:(\u0027Janos Karancz\u0027,\u0027HU\u0027),2014:(\u0027Hiroyuki Suzuki\u0027,\u0027JP\u0027),2015:(\u0027Gentry Stein\u0027,\u0027US\u0027),\n 2016:(\u0027Hajime Miura\u0027,\u0027JP\u0027),2017:(\u0027Evan Nagao\u0027,\u0027US\u0027),2018:(\u0027Shion Araya\u0027,\u0027JP\u0027),\n 2019:(\u0027Evan Nagao\u0027,\u0027US\u0027),2021:(\u0027Mir Kim\u0027,\u0027KR\u0027),2022:(\u0027Mir Kim\u0027,\u0027KR\u0027),\n 2023:(\u0027Mir Kim\u0027,\u0027KR\u0027),2024:(\u0027Mir Kim\u0027,\u0027KR\u0027),2025:(\u0027Mir Kim\u0027,\u0027KR\u0027)}\nyears=sorted(champs)\nrepeat=sum(1 for i in range(1,len(years)) if champs[years[i]][0]==champs[years[i-1]][0])\nprint(\u0027back-to-back rate\u0027, repeat/(len(years)-1))\nprior=set()\nfirst=0\nfor y in years:\n n=champs[y][0]\n if n not in prior: first+=1\n prior.add(n)\nprint(\u0027first-time-winner rate\u0027, first/len(years))\njp=sum(1 for y in years if champs[y][1]==\u0027JP\u0027)\nprint(\u0027Japanese champion rate\u0027, jp/len(years))\n# simple simulation of streak continuation with decay\nfor p in [0.5,0.6,0.7,0.8]:\n print(\u0027assumed Mir Kim win prob\u0027, p)\n",
"description": "Compute historical base rates for repeat champions, first-time winners, and Japanese champions in WYYC 1A."
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-07-30T17:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nThe [World Yo-Yo Contest](https://worldyoyocontest.org/) is the final competition in the worldwide competitive Yo-Yo circuit, with winners of each of the 6 championship divisions declared World Yo-Yo Champions.\n\nWith unofficial championships held every year since 1992, and the official championship held every year since 2013, the 2026 championships are [set to be held](https://worldyoyocontest.org/faq/) August 13-16 2026, in Himeji, Japan.\n\n[Division 1A](https://yoyoarchive.org/articles/the-evolution-of-the-spin-a-guide-to-competitive-yo-yo-play-styles), which utilizes a single unresponsive Yo-Yo to perform \"string tricks\", is widely regarded as the most prestigious division at the event. Since 2023, Mir Kim has been the Division 1A world champion, though he also won the unofficial online championship in both 2021 and 2022.\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 44790, \"question_id\": 44937}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question will resolve as the winner of Division 1A in the 2026 World Yo-Yo Contest.\n\n## Fine Print\nIf someone other than one of the listed individuals wins, this question will resolve as Other.\n\nIf the 2026 World Yo-Yo Contest is not held before September 1, 2026, this question will be annulled.\n\n***\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44790) which opened on 2026-07-27 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.",
"options": [
"Mir Kim",
"Hunter Feuerstein",
"Chandler Steele",
"Jakub Dolej\u0161",
"Allon Chen",
"Ryuichi Nakamura",
"Other"
],
"question_type": "multiple_choice",
"title": "Who will win Division 1A in the 2026 World Yo-Yo Contest?"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 4,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 2.15,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "3 pages",
"tool_name": "wikipedia_lookup"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 28.13,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "6 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 31.08,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "0 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.0,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Compute historical base rates for repeat champions, first-ti",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "Mir Kim (South Korea) has won WYYC Division 1A three consecutive times (2023, 2024, 2025), defending the title in Prague in 2025.",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Mir Kim is only the second player in 1A history to win more than twice, after Hiroyuki Suzuki, indicating exceptional dominance.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Mir Kim set the record 1A freestyle score of 99.7/100 at WYYC 2023 in Osaka.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Historical WYYC 1A back-to-back repeat champion rate computed at roughly 36% (4 of 11 transitions in the sampled dataset).",
"credibility": 55,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Historical rate of a first-time (never-before-1A-champion) winner computed at approximately 58% in the sampled WYYC 1A history.",
"credibility": 55,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Historical rate of a Japanese 1A world champion computed at approximately 25% in the sampled dataset.",
"credibility": 50,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "The 2026 WYYC is confirmed for Arcrea Himeji, Japan, August 13-16, 2026, with contestant registration having opened June 19.",
"credibility": 92,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "No published list of confirmed 2026 Division 1A competitors was found, and no source addresses Mir Kim\u0027s 2026 participation plans.",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Mir Kim, born circa 2007-2008, competes for YoYoFactory alongside his sister and has an active signature yo-yo line.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "The 2026 Japan National Yo-Yo Contest was held June 6-7, 2026 in Yokohama, with the winner earning a WYYC seed; the 1A results were not retrieved.",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "The 2026 contest is being held in Japan, historically the largest source of 1A competitors, with the host national organization co-running the event.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "Wikipedia confirms WYYC is the only event awarding World Yo-Yo Champion titles across six championship divisions, run by the IYYF.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "wikipedia_lookup",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No confirmed 2026 Division 1A entry list or Mir Kim registration confirmation",
"2026 Japan National 1A winner and other national/regional 2026 results unknown",
"No data on 2026-season contest results (e.g., Korea Nationals, EYYC, Asia Pacific) to gauge current form",
"No named list of alternative contenders the question offers as options"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether Mir Kim registers and competes vs. judges/absent",
"Age/eligibility or seeding changes affecting Kim",
"Home-crowd/judging dynamics favoring Japanese contenders in Himeji",
"High variance of single-freestyle judged competition"
],
"n_evidence": 12
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 34.67,
"plan": 31.58,
"research": 31.08,
"synthesis": 18.9
}
}