First establish whether a qualifying election with known results occurs before the deadline (sq1), since a NO there forces 'Two or Fewer'; then blend the conditional fragmentation estimates (sq2, sq3, anchored on the six seat-winning parties in 2023 and the current registered-party roster and threshold) into a probability distribution over the seat-count options via weighted averaging.
## Cross-Market Signals ### No signal found
1. [sq1 | wikipedia_lookup | STRONG cred 92 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Elections to all 145 Kurultai seats are scheduled for 23 August 2026 by presidential decree signed 1 July 2026. 2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Kazakhstan's new constitution, approved by 87% in a 15 March 2026 referendum, took effect 1 July 2026, replacing the bicameral parliament. 3. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CEC completed party-list registration of 545 candidates from seven parties; official campaigning began 23 July and runs to 21 August. 4. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The outgoing Mazhilis and Senate held their final joint session on 30 June 2026, formally ending the bicameral parliament. 5. [sq1 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] In the 2023 Kazakh election, preliminary official results were announced within one to two days of the 19 March vote. 6. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 25 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] General news article search returned only US/UK election stories, providing no independent reporting on Kazakhstan's vote or any postponement. 7. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Seven parties are competing for the 145 seats, including Ak Zhol, Auyl, Adilet, Baitaq and the People's Party (plus others per CEC). 8. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Seats are allocated by proportional representation from closed party lists in a single nationwide constituency; no research confirmed the applicable threshold level. 9. [sq2 | wikipedia_lookup | STRONG cred 90 | UP | DATED] In the 2023 Mäjilis election six of seven contesting parties cleared the 5% threshold and won seats. 10. [sq2 | web_search | WEAK cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The 2026 party roster appears to include newcomer Adilet while some 2023 contestants (e.g., NSDP) were not listed among the seven registered parties. 11. [sq2 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The 2026 vote elects a wholly new 145-seat body with no single-mandate districts, unlike the 2023 mixed system that included 29 constituency seats. ## Cross-Market Signals ### No signal found Information gaps: - Exact electoral threshold under the 2026 constitution/election law (still 5%? 3%? 7%?) - Any polling or expert projections of party vote shares for 23 August 2026 - Identity of all seven registered parties (whether Amanat, Respublica, NSDP are included) - Base rate for postponement of scheduled Kazakh national elections (historically ~0) Key uncertainties: - Whether small parties (Baitaq, Adilet) clear the threshold - Whether authorities engineer a similar or reduced number of seat-winning parties - Speed and completeness of official result publication before 8 September - Possible consolidation/merger of pro-government parties reducing party count
You are an elite superforecaster. Estimate the probability of each option for this Metaculus multiple-choice question.
## Question
How many parties will obtain representation in the 2026 Kazakh legislative election?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurultai_(Kazakhstan)): "The Kurultai,[a] officially known as the Kurultai of the Republic of Kazakhstan,[b] is the unicameral legislature of Kazakhstan, established in June 2026 following constitutional reforms that replaced the previous bicameral Parliament of Kazakhstan, consisting of the Mäjilis and the Senate. The body serves as the sole legislative authority of the state, responsible for adopting laws, approving the state budget, and exercising oversight of the executive branch.
The Kurultai consists of 145 members, all of whom are elected under a proportional system."
`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "84c1c2e66932dbaf", "sheet_id": "135"}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as the number of parties winning seats in the [2026 Kazakh legislative election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Kazakh_legislative_election).
## Fine Print
If the election is not held before September 1, 2026 or results are not known before September 8, 2026 according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions), the question resolves as Two or Fewer.
## Options
- Two or Fewer
- Three
- Four
- Five
- Six
- Greater than Six
## Sub-question decomposition (planner)
- (w=0.45) Will a Kazakh national legislative election (to the new unicameral Kurultai or successor body) actually be held with results known publicly before September 8, 2026? — The fine print forces 'Two or Fewer' if no election/results by the deadline; Tokayev's announced timetable (referendum o
- (w=0.30) Conditional on the election being held, will six or more parties win seats (i.e., at least as many as the six that cleared the 5% threshold in the 2023 Mäjilis election)? — The 2023 election under a 5% threshold produced exactly six seat-winning parties; the reference class plus a fully propo
- (w=0.25) Will the electoral rules for the 2026 vote (threshold level, number of registered/qualified parties, ballot structure) permit at least five parties to plausibly gain seats? — A raised threshold, party mergers/deregistration, or a restricted candidate list could compress the count to 3-5; conver
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | wikipedia_lookup | STRONG cred 92 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Elections to all 145 Kurultai seats are scheduled for 23 August 2026 by presidential decree signed 1 July 2026.
2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Kazakhstan's new constitution, approved by 87% in a 15 March 2026 referendum, took effect 1 July 2026, replacing the bicameral parliament.
3. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CEC completed party-list registration of 545 candidates from seven parties; official campaigning began 23 July and runs to 21 August.
4. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The outgoing Mazhilis and Senate held their final joint session on 30 June 2026, formally ending the bicameral parliament.
5. [sq1 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] In the 2023 Kazakh election, preliminary official results were announced within one to two days of the 19 March vote.
6. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 25 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] General news article search returned only US/UK election stories, providing no independent reporting on Kazakhstan's vote or any postponement.
7. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Seven parties are competing for the 145 seats, including Ak Zhol, Auyl, Adilet, Baitaq and the People's Party (plus others per CEC).
8. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Seats are allocated by proportional representation from closed party lists in a single nationwide constituency; no research confirmed the applicable threshold level.
9. [sq2 | wikipedia_lookup | STRONG cred 90 | UP | DATED] In the 2023 Mäjilis election six of seven contesting parties cleared the 5% threshold and won seats.
10. [sq2 | web_search | WEAK cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The 2026 party roster appears to include newcomer Adilet while some 2023 contestants (e.g., NSDP) were not listed among the seven registered parties.
11. [sq2 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The 2026 vote elects a wholly new 145-seat body with no single-mandate districts, unlike the 2023 mixed system that included 29 constituency seats.
## Cross-Market Signals
### No signal found
Information gaps:
- Exact electoral threshold under the 2026 constitution/election law (still 5%? 3%? 7%?)
- Any polling or expert projections of party vote shares for 23 August 2026
- Identity of all seven registered parties (whether Amanat, Respublica, NSDP are included)
- Base rate for postponement of scheduled Kazakh national elections (historically ~0)
Key uncertainties:
- Whether small parties (Baitaq, Adilet) clear the threshold
- Whether authorities engineer a similar or reduced number of seat-winning parties
- Speed and completeness of official result publication before 8 September
- Possible consolidation/merger of pro-government parties reducing party count
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving probabilities, address these explicitly in your rationale:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The status quo outcome — the option most likely if nothing changes from today.
(c) An outcome that would be SURPRISING but plausible.
## Calibration guidance
- **Status quo anchoring.** Good forecasters put extra weight on the status quo option because the world changes slowly most of the time.
- **Leave moderate probability on most options.** Good forecasters don't drop options to ~0% — leave ≥3-5% on every option to account for unexpected outcomes, unless you have strong specific evidence ruling them out.
- Avoid uniform-distribution laziness — most options are not equally likely.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) for these options appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong prior and stay close to them absent specific contrary evidence.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) above, then explain your distribution — 4-7 sentences total>",
"probabilities": {
"Two or Fewer": <prob>,
"Three": <prob>,
"Four": <prob>,
"Five": <prob>,
"Six": <prob>,
"Greater than Six": <prob>
}
}
Probabilities MUST sum to ~1.0 (renormalization is applied; close enough is fine).
{
"forecast": {
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | wikipedia_lookup | STRONG cred 92 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Elections to all 145 Kurultai seats are scheduled for 23 August 2026 by presidential decree signed 1 July 2026.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Kazakhstan\u0027s new constitution, approved by 87% in a 15 March 2026 referendum, took effect 1 July 2026, replacing the bicameral parliament.\n3. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CEC completed party-list registration of 545 candidates from seven parties; official campaigning began 23 July and runs to 21 August.\n4. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The outgoing Mazhilis and Senate held their final joint session on 30 June 2026, formally ending the bicameral parliament.\n5. [sq1 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] In the 2023 Kazakh election, preliminary official results were announced within one to two days of the 19 March vote.\n6. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 25 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] General news article search returned only US/UK election stories, providing no independent reporting on Kazakhstan\u0027s vote or any postponement.\n7. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Seven parties are competing for the 145 seats, including Ak Zhol, Auyl, Adilet, Baitaq and the People\u0027s Party (plus others per CEC).\n8. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Seats are allocated by proportional representation from closed party lists in a single nationwide constituency; no research confirmed the applicable threshold level.\n9. [sq2 | wikipedia_lookup | STRONG cred 90 | UP | DATED] In the 2023 M\u00e4jilis election six of seven contesting parties cleared the 5% threshold and won seats.\n10. [sq2 | web_search | WEAK cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The 2026 party roster appears to include newcomer Adilet while some 2023 contestants (e.g., NSDP) were not listed among the seven registered parties.\n11. [sq2 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The 2026 vote elects a wholly new 145-seat body with no single-mandate districts, unlike the 2023 mixed system that included 29 constituency seats.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n - Exact electoral threshold under the 2026 constitution/election law (still 5%? 3%? 7%?)\n - Any polling or expert projections of party vote shares for 23 August 2026\n - Identity of all seven registered parties (whether Amanat, Respublica, NSDP are included)\n - Base rate for postponement of scheduled Kazakh national elections (historically ~0)\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether small parties (Baitaq, Adilet) clear the threshold\n - Whether authorities engineer a similar or reduced number of seat-winning parties\n - Speed and completeness of official result publication before 8 September\n - Possible consolidation/merger of pro-government parties reducing party count",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Estimate the probability of each option for this Metaculus multiple-choice question.\n\n## Question\nHow many parties will obtain representation in the 2026 Kazakh legislative election?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nAccording to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurultai_(Kazakhstan)): \"The Kurultai,[a] officially known as the Kurultai of the Republic of Kazakhstan,[b] is the unicameral legislature of Kazakhstan, established in June 2026 following constitutional reforms that replaced the previous bicameral Parliament of Kazakhstan, consisting of the M\u00e4jilis and the Senate. The body serves as the sole legislative authority of the state, responsible for adopting laws, approving the state budget, and exercising oversight of the executive branch.\n\nThe Kurultai consists of 145 members, all of whom are elected under a proportional system.\"\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"84c1c2e66932dbaf\", \"sheet_id\": \"135\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the number of parties winning seats in the [2026 Kazakh legislative election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Kazakh_legislative_election).\n\n## Fine Print\nIf the election is not held before September 1, 2026 or results are not known before September 8, 2026 according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions), the question resolves as Two or Fewer.\n\n## Options\n - Two or Fewer\n - Three\n - Four\n - Five\n - Six\n - Greater than Six\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n- (w=0.45) Will a Kazakh national legislative election (to the new unicameral Kurultai or successor body) actually be held with results known publicly before September 8, 2026? \u2014 The fine print forces \u0027Two or Fewer\u0027 if no election/results by the deadline; Tokayev\u0027s announced timetable (referendum o\n- (w=0.30) Conditional on the election being held, will six or more parties win seats (i.e., at least as many as the six that cleared the 5% threshold in the 2023 M\u00e4jilis election)? \u2014 The 2023 election under a 5% threshold produced exactly six seat-winning parties; the reference class plus a fully propo\n- (w=0.25) Will the electoral rules for the 2026 vote (threshold level, number of registered/qualified parties, ballot structure) permit at least five parties to plausibly gain seats? \u2014 A raised threshold, party mergers/deregistration, or a restricted candidate list could compress the count to 3-5; conver\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | wikipedia_lookup | STRONG cred 92 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Elections to all 145 Kurultai seats are scheduled for 23 August 2026 by presidential decree signed 1 July 2026.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Kazakhstan\u0027s new constitution, approved by 87% in a 15 March 2026 referendum, took effect 1 July 2026, replacing the bicameral parliament.\n3. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CEC completed party-list registration of 545 candidates from seven parties; official campaigning began 23 July and runs to 21 August.\n4. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The outgoing Mazhilis and Senate held their final joint session on 30 June 2026, formally ending the bicameral parliament.\n5. [sq1 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] In the 2023 Kazakh election, preliminary official results were announced within one to two days of the 19 March vote.\n6. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 25 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] General news article search returned only US/UK election stories, providing no independent reporting on Kazakhstan\u0027s vote or any postponement.\n7. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Seven parties are competing for the 145 seats, including Ak Zhol, Auyl, Adilet, Baitaq and the People\u0027s Party (plus others per CEC).\n8. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Seats are allocated by proportional representation from closed party lists in a single nationwide constituency; no research confirmed the applicable threshold level.\n9. [sq2 | wikipedia_lookup | STRONG cred 90 | UP | DATED] In the 2023 M\u00e4jilis election six of seven contesting parties cleared the 5% threshold and won seats.\n10. [sq2 | web_search | WEAK cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The 2026 party roster appears to include newcomer Adilet while some 2023 contestants (e.g., NSDP) were not listed among the seven registered parties.\n11. [sq2 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The 2026 vote elects a wholly new 145-seat body with no single-mandate districts, unlike the 2023 mixed system that included 29 constituency seats.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n - Exact electoral threshold under the 2026 constitution/election law (still 5%? 3%? 7%?)\n - Any polling or expert projections of party vote shares for 23 August 2026\n - Identity of all seven registered parties (whether Amanat, Respublica, NSDP are included)\n - Base rate for postponement of scheduled Kazakh national elections (historically ~0)\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether small parties (Baitaq, Adilet) clear the threshold\n - Whether authorities engineer a similar or reduced number of seat-winning parties\n - Speed and completeness of official result publication before 8 September\n - Possible consolidation/merger of pro-government parties reducing party count\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving probabilities, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The status quo outcome \u2014 the option most likely if nothing changes from today.\n (c) An outcome that would be SURPRISING but plausible.\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Status quo anchoring.** Good forecasters put extra weight on the status quo option because the world changes slowly most of the time.\n- **Leave moderate probability on most options.** Good forecasters don\u0027t drop options to ~0% \u2014 leave \u22653-5% on every option to account for unexpected outcomes, unless you have strong specific evidence ruling them out.\n- Avoid uniform-distribution laziness \u2014 most options are not equally likely.\n- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) for these options appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong prior and stay close to them absent specific contrary evidence.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) (b) (c) above, then explain your distribution \u2014 4-7 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"probabilities\": {\n \"Two or Fewer\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Three\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Four\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Five\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Six\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Greater than Six\": \u003cprob\u003e\n }\n}\n\nProbabilities MUST sum to ~1.0 (renormalization is applied; close enough is fine).\n",
"models": [
"opus",
"secondary"
],
"probabilities": {
"Five": 0.29000000000000004,
"Four": 0.12,
"Greater than Six": 0.16999999999999998,
"Six": 0.32,
"Three": 0.055,
"Two or Fewer": 0.045
},
"rationale": "(a) The election is set for 23 August 2026 with results historically announced within 1\u20132 days, so resolution by 8 September is nearly certain; the non-resolution/postponement escape hatch carries only ~3% weight (constitution in force, decree signed, candidates registered, campaign underway). (b) Status quo: in 2023 six of seven contesting parties cleared the 5% threshold, and again seven parties are registered, so \u0027Six\u0027 is a natural anchor \u2014 but the roster has changed: NSDP (which won 5.2% in 2023) appears absent, replaced by newcomer Adilet, while perennial also-ran Baitaq (2.3% in 2023) is again running. That makes five \u0027proven\u0027 threshold-clearing parties (Amanat, Auyl, Respublica, Ak Zhol, People\u0027s Party) plus two marginal ones, so \u0027Five\u0027 and \u0027Six\u0027 are roughly co-favourites. (c) Surprising but plausible: all seven parties win seats (if the threshold was cut to 3% or authorities wish to showcase pluralism in the new fully proportional Kurultai), or a compressed 3\u20134 party outcome from a raised threshold or landslide for Amanat. The fully proportional single-constituency system slightly aids small parties versus 2023\u0027s mixed system, and vacated NSDP votes could lift Baitaq or Adilet over the bar. I therefore concentrate ~60% on Five/Six, give a meaningful 16% to seven, and leave modest tails for Four/Three and the non-resolution-driven \u0027Two or Fewer\u0027.",
"top_option": "Six"
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "politics",
"n_sub_qs": 3,
"n_tools": 4,
"reasoning_approach": "First establish whether a qualifying election with known results occurs before the deadline (sq1), since a NO there forces \u0027Two or Fewer\u0027; then blend the conditional fragmentation estimates (sq2, sq3, anchored on the six seat-winning parties in 2023 and the current registered-party roster and threshold) into a probability distribution over the seat-count options via weighted averaging.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will a Kazakh national legislative election (to the new unicameral Kurultai or successor body) actually be held with results known publicly before September 8, 2026?",
"rationale": "The fine print forces \u0027Two or Fewer\u0027 if no election/results by the deadline; Tokayev\u0027s announced timetable (referendum on unicameralism reportedly in 2027) makes the timing of any 2026 vote the single biggest driver, so we must verify whether a 2026 election is genuinely scheduled/called.",
"weight": 0.45
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Conditional on the election being held, will six or more parties win seats (i.e., at least as many as the six that cleared the 5% threshold in the 2023 M\u00e4jilis election)?",
"rationale": "The 2023 election under a 5% threshold produced exactly six seat-winning parties; the reference class plus a fully proportional 145-seat chamber suggests high fragmentation, making \u0027Six or More\u0027 the modal outcome if the vote occurs.",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will the electoral rules for the 2026 vote (threshold level, number of registered/qualified parties, ballot structure) permit at least five parties to plausibly gain seats?",
"rationale": "A raised threshold, party mergers/deregistration, or a restricted candidate list could compress the count to 3-5; conversely ~7 registered parties (incl. Baytaq) and a lower/unchanged 5% threshold with 145 fully proportional seats favors a high count.",
"weight": 0.25
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"2026 Kazakh legislative election",
"Kurultai (Kazakhstan)",
"2023 Kazakh legislative election",
"Elections in Kazakhstan",
"List of political parties in Kazakhstan"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "wikipedia_lookup"
},
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Determine the current status of Kazakhstan\u0027s constitutional reform to a unicameral 145-seat Kurultai: has a referendum been held, has an election date been officially set/called, and is an election expected before September 1, 2026? Also identify the electoral threshold adopted, the list of legally registered parties allowed to contest, and any polling or expert expectation for how many parties will clear the threshold.",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "How many parties will obtain representation in the 2026 Kazakh legislative election?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"Kazakhstan Kurultai election date 2026",
"Kazakhstan unicameral parliament referendum Tokayev schedule",
"Kazakhstan electoral threshold parties 2026 election"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_days": 180,
"queries": [
"Kazakhstan parliamentary election 2026 parties",
"Tokayev constitutional reform unicameral parliament Kurultai",
"Kazakhstan party registration threshold Mazhilis seats"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "article_search"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-07-30T06:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nAccording to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurultai_(Kazakhstan)): \"The Kurultai,[a] officially known as the Kurultai of the Republic of Kazakhstan,[b] is the unicameral legislature of Kazakhstan, established in June 2026 following constitutional reforms that replaced the previous bicameral Parliament of Kazakhstan, consisting of the M\u00e4jilis and the Senate. The body serves as the sole legislative authority of the state, responsible for adopting laws, approving the state budget, and exercising oversight of the executive branch.\n\nThe Kurultai consists of 145 members, all of whom are elected under a proportional system.\"\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"84c1c2e66932dbaf\", \"sheet_id\": \"135\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the number of parties winning seats in the [2026 Kazakh legislative election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Kazakh_legislative_election).\n\n## Fine Print\nIf the election is not held before September 1, 2026 or results are not known before September 8, 2026 according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions), the question resolves as Two or Fewer.",
"options": [
"Two or Fewer",
"Three",
"Four",
"Five",
"Six",
"Greater than Six"
],
"question_type": "multiple_choice",
"title": "How many parties will obtain representation in the 2026 Kazakh legislative election?"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 4,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 1.3,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "3 pages",
"tool_name": "wikipedia_lookup"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 35.04,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "14 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 24.15,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "0 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.7,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "26 articles",
"tool_name": "article_search"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "Elections to all 145 Kurultai seats are scheduled for 23 August 2026 by presidential decree signed 1 July 2026.",
"credibility": 92,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "wikipedia_lookup",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Kazakhstan\u0027s new constitution, approved by 87% in a 15 March 2026 referendum, took effect 1 July 2026, replacing the bicameral parliament.",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "CEC completed party-list registration of 545 candidates from seven parties; official campaigning began 23 July and runs to 21 August.",
"credibility": 88,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "The outgoing Mazhilis and Senate held their final joint session on 30 June 2026, formally ending the bicameral parliament.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "In the 2023 Kazakh election, preliminary official results were announced within one to two days of the 19 March vote.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "wikipedia_lookup",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "General news article search returned only US/UK election stories, providing no independent reporting on Kazakhstan\u0027s vote or any postponement.",
"credibility": 25,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Seven parties are competing for the 145 seats, including Ak Zhol, Auyl, Adilet, Baitaq and the People\u0027s Party (plus others per CEC).",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Seats are allocated by proportional representation from closed party lists in a single nationwide constituency; no research confirmed the applicable threshold level.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "In the 2023 M\u00e4jilis election six of seven contesting parties cleared the 5% threshold and won seats.",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "wikipedia_lookup",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "The 2026 party roster appears to include newcomer Adilet while some 2023 contestants (e.g., NSDP) were not listed among the seven registered parties.",
"credibility": 45,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "The 2026 vote elects a wholly new 145-seat body with no single-mandate districts, unlike the 2023 mixed system that included 29 constituency seats.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "wikipedia_lookup",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"Exact electoral threshold under the 2026 constitution/election law (still 5%? 3%? 7%?)",
"Any polling or expert projections of party vote shares for 23 August 2026",
"Identity of all seven registered parties (whether Amanat, Respublica, NSDP are included)",
"Base rate for postponement of scheduled Kazakh national elections (historically ~0)"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether small parties (Baitaq, Adilet) clear the threshold",
"Whether authorities engineer a similar or reduced number of seat-winning parties",
"Speed and completeness of official result publication before 8 September",
"Possible consolidation/merger of pro-government parties reducing party count"
],
"n_evidence": 11
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 43.89,
"plan": 31.25,
"research": 35.04,
"synthesis": 29.74
}
}