Establish an empirical/negative-binomial base-rate distribution for monthly KEV additions (recently very stable at ~10-20/month, mode ~13-17), then blend bucket probabilities via weighted average, adjusting for any evidence of program disruption or elevated mass-exploitation activity that would shift the distribution low or high.
## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.06, Volume: $127.4K
## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.06, Volume: $127.4K
You are an elite superforecaster. Estimate the probability of each option for this Metaculus multiple-choice question.
## Question
How many known vulnerabilities will the U.S. Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency add to its catalog in August 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
CISA [maintains](https://www.cisa.gov/known-exploited-vulnerabilities-catalog/reducing-significant-risk-known-exploited-vulnerabilities) its Known Vulnerabilities Catalog as "the authoritative source of vulnerabilities that have been exploited in the wild," to which civilian federal agencies are required to report.
`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "11336a2a8d8482c6", "sheet_id": "126"}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as the number of vulnerabilities added to the CISA [Known Exploited Vulnerabilities Catalog](https://www.cisa.gov/known-exploited-vulnerabilities-catalog) with a Date Added in August 2026.
## Options
- 17 or fewer
- 18–22
- 23–27
- 28–32
- 33 or more
## Sub-question decomposition (planner)
- (w=0.30) Will the number of CVEs added to the CISA KEV catalog in August 2026 be in a low bucket (roughly 0-5 additions)? — Recent months have shown sparse, bursty additions; a substantial share of months have very few entries, so the low bucke
- (w=0.45) Will August 2026 additions fall in the modal mid-range bucket (roughly 6-15 additions), consistent with the recent monthly base rate? — The historical monthly distribution since 2023 centers around ~5-15 additions per month; this is the most likely region
- (w=0.15) Will August 2026 see an unusually large batch of additions (roughly 16+), e.g. driven by a mass-exploitation event or bulk backfill? — CISA occasionally adds large batches (e.g., mass exploitation of edge devices, or catch-up dumps), creating a fat right
- (w=0.10) Will CISA's KEV program continue operating normally through August 2026 (no shutdown, funding lapse, policy change, or program restructuring materially suppressing additions)? — CISA has faced budget/staffing cuts, CVE program funding uncertainty, and possible government shutdown effects (e.g., Oc
## Synthesized evidence
## Cross-Market Signals
### Polymarket
- "Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.06, Volume: $127.4K
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving probabilities, address these explicitly in your rationale:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The status quo outcome — the option most likely if nothing changes from today.
(c) An outcome that would be SURPRISING but plausible.
## Calibration guidance
- **Status quo anchoring.** Good forecasters put extra weight on the status quo option because the world changes slowly most of the time.
- **Leave moderate probability on most options.** Good forecasters don't drop options to ~0% — leave ≥3-5% on every option to account for unexpected outcomes, unless you have strong specific evidence ruling them out.
- Avoid uniform-distribution laziness — most options are not equally likely.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) for these options appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong prior and stay close to them absent specific contrary evidence.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) above, then explain your distribution — 4-7 sentences total>",
"probabilities": {
"17 or fewer": <prob>,
"18–22": <prob>,
"23–27": <prob>,
"28–32": <prob>,
"33 or more": <prob>
}
}
Probabilities MUST sum to ~1.0 (renormalization is applied; close enough is fine).
{
"forecast": {
"evidence_brief": "\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.06, Volume: $127.4K",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Estimate the probability of each option for this Metaculus multiple-choice question.\n\n## Question\nHow many known vulnerabilities will the U.S. Cybersecurity \u0026 Infrastructure Security Agency add to its catalog in August 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nCISA [maintains](https://www.cisa.gov/known-exploited-vulnerabilities-catalog/reducing-significant-risk-known-exploited-vulnerabilities) its Known Vulnerabilities Catalog as \"the authoritative source of vulnerabilities that have been exploited in the wild,\" to which civilian federal agencies are required to report.\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"11336a2a8d8482c6\", \"sheet_id\": \"126\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the number of vulnerabilities added to the CISA [Known Exploited Vulnerabilities Catalog](https://www.cisa.gov/known-exploited-vulnerabilities-catalog) with a Date Added in August 2026.\n\n## Options\n - 17 or fewer\n - 18\u201322\n - 23\u201327\n - 28\u201332\n - 33 or more\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n- (w=0.30) Will the number of CVEs added to the CISA KEV catalog in August 2026 be in a low bucket (roughly 0-5 additions)? \u2014 Recent months have shown sparse, bursty additions; a substantial share of months have very few entries, so the low bucke\n- (w=0.45) Will August 2026 additions fall in the modal mid-range bucket (roughly 6-15 additions), consistent with the recent monthly base rate? \u2014 The historical monthly distribution since 2023 centers around ~5-15 additions per month; this is the most likely region \n- (w=0.15) Will August 2026 see an unusually large batch of additions (roughly 16+), e.g. driven by a mass-exploitation event or bulk backfill? \u2014 CISA occasionally adds large batches (e.g., mass exploitation of edge devices, or catch-up dumps), creating a fat right \n- (w=0.10) Will CISA\u0027s KEV program continue operating normally through August 2026 (no shutdown, funding lapse, policy change, or program restructuring materially suppressing additions)? \u2014 CISA has faced budget/staffing cuts, CVE program funding uncertainty, and possible government shutdown effects (e.g., Oc\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.06, Volume: $127.4K\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving probabilities, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The status quo outcome \u2014 the option most likely if nothing changes from today.\n (c) An outcome that would be SURPRISING but plausible.\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Status quo anchoring.** Good forecasters put extra weight on the status quo option because the world changes slowly most of the time.\n- **Leave moderate probability on most options.** Good forecasters don\u0027t drop options to ~0% \u2014 leave \u22653-5% on every option to account for unexpected outcomes, unless you have strong specific evidence ruling them out.\n- Avoid uniform-distribution laziness \u2014 most options are not equally likely.\n- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) for these options appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong prior and stay close to them absent specific contrary evidence.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) (b) (c) above, then explain your distribution \u2014 4-7 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"probabilities\": {\n \"17 or fewer\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"18\u201322\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"23\u201327\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"28\u201332\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"33 or more\": \u003cprob\u003e\n }\n}\n\nProbabilities MUST sum to ~1.0 (renormalization is applied; close enough is fine).\n",
"models": [
"opus",
"secondary"
],
"probabilities": {
"17 or fewer": 0.5700000000000001,
"18\u201322": 0.18,
"23\u201327": 0.11000000000000001,
"28\u201332": 0.065,
"33 or more": 0.07500000000000001
},
"rationale": "(a) Resolution is at the end of August 2026, likely many months out from now, so there is substantial time for trend shifts \u2014 favoring a wide, base-rate-driven distribution rather than confident concentration. (b) Status quo: CISA has added roughly 185\u2013205 CVEs per year in 2023\u20132025, i.e., ~15\u201317 per month, with high month-to-month variance (single-digit months to 30+ months driven by bursty batch additions after mass-exploitation events like edge-device or file-transfer campaigns). That puts the modal bucket at \u002717 or fewer,\u0027 which uniquely spans a wide range (0\u201317) and captures roughly half the historical monthly distribution; August specifically has historically been an average-to-quiet month. (c) A surprising but plausible outcome would be 33+ additions \u2014 this happens when CISA does a bulk backfill or a widely exploited enterprise product (Ivanti/Fortinet/Citrix/SharePoint-class event) triggers a large batch \u2014 or, conversely, a near-zero month if CISA\u0027s KEV/CVE program is disrupted by funding lapses, workforce reductions, or a shutdown, which would also land in the lowest bucket. (d) Downside risks (CISA staffing cuts, CVE program funding uncertainty, possible appropriations lapse) are asymmetric and further weight the lowest bucket; the planner\u0027s decomposition also leans low, though I think it understates typical volume. I therefore place ~45\u201348% on \u002717 or fewer,\u0027 a declining tail across the mid buckets, and keep ~10% on \u002733 or more\u0027 to respect the fat right tail from batch additions. No relevant liquid market prices exist for this question (the Iran/Ukraine Polymarket line is unrelated), so I rely on the base rate.",
"top_option": "17 or fewer"
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "tech",
"n_sub_qs": 4,
"n_tools": 4,
"reasoning_approach": "Establish an empirical/negative-binomial base-rate distribution for monthly KEV additions (recently very stable at ~10-20/month, mode ~13-17), then blend bucket probabilities via weighted average, adjusting for any evidence of program disruption or elevated mass-exploitation activity that would shift the distribution low or high.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will the number of CVEs added to the CISA KEV catalog in August 2026 be in a low bucket (roughly 0-5 additions)?",
"rationale": "Recent months have shown sparse, bursty additions; a substantial share of months have very few entries, so the low bucket is a live possibility.",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will August 2026 additions fall in the modal mid-range bucket (roughly 6-15 additions), consistent with the recent monthly base rate?",
"rationale": "The historical monthly distribution since 2023 centers around ~5-15 additions per month; this is the most likely region and should carry the most weight.",
"weight": 0.45
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will August 2026 see an unusually large batch of additions (roughly 16+), e.g. driven by a mass-exploitation event or bulk backfill?",
"rationale": "CISA occasionally adds large batches (e.g., mass exploitation of edge devices, or catch-up dumps), creating a fat right tail.",
"weight": 0.15
},
{
"id": "sq4",
"question": "Will CISA\u0027s KEV program continue operating normally through August 2026 (no shutdown, funding lapse, policy change, or program restructuring materially suppressing additions)?",
"rationale": "CISA has faced budget/staffing cuts, CVE program funding uncertainty, and possible government shutdown effects (e.g., Oct 2025 lapse); disruption would shift the distribution toward zero/low.",
"weight": 0.1
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np, pandas as pd\n# Approximate monthly KEV additions (Date Added) from public KEV catalog history.\n# Nov 2021 launch (huge backfill), 2022 large batches, 2023-2025 more moderate.\nmonthly = {\n\u00272022-01\u0027:39,\u00272022-02\u0027:30,\u00272022-03\u0027:161,\u00272022-04\u0027:44,\u00272022-05\u0027:63,\u00272022-06\u0027:44,\n\u00272022-07\u0027:13,\u00272022-08\u0027:22,\u00272022-09\u0027:18,\u00272022-10\u0027:13,\u00272022-11\u0027:7,\u00272022-12\u0027:6,\n\u00272023-01\u0027:6,\u00272023-02\u0027:10,\u00272023-03\u0027:17,\u00272023-04\u0027:17,\u00272023-05\u0027:16,\u00272023-06\u0027:11,\n\u00272023-07\u0027:16,\u00272023-08\u0027:11,\u00272023-09\u0027:17,\u00272023-10\u0027:22,\u00272023-11\u0027:17,\u00272023-12\u0027:10,\n\u00272024-01\u0027:21,\u00272024-02\u0027:17,\u00272024-03\u0027:16,\u00272024-04\u0027:13,\u00272024-05\u0027:16,\u00272024-06\u0027:10,\n\u00272024-07\u0027:15,\u00272024-08\u0027:22,\u00272024-09\u0027:16,\u00272024-10\u0027:17,\u00272024-11\u0027:16,\u00272024-12\u0027:11,\n\u00272025-01\u0027:17,\u00272025-02\u0027:17,\u00272025-03\u0027:22,\u00272025-04\u0027:16,\u00272025-05\u0027:17,\u00272025-06\u0027:14,\n\u00272025-07\u0027:17,\u00272025-08\u0027:13,\u00272025-09\u0027:16,\u00272025-10\u0027:13,\u00272025-11\u0027:12,\u00272025-12\u0027:10\n}\ns = pd.Series(monthly)\nrecent = s[\u00272023-01\u0027:]\nprint(\u0027n=\u0027,len(recent))\nprint(recent.describe())\nbuckets = [(0,5),(6,10),(11,15),(16,20),(21,25),(26,1000)]\nfor lo,hi in buckets:\n p = ((recent\u003e=lo)\u0026(recent\u003c=hi)).mean()\n print(f\u0027{lo}-{hi}: {p:.3f}\u0027)\nprint(\u0027August months only:\u0027, s[[i for i in s.index if i.endswith(\u0027-08\u0027)]].to_dict())\nprint(\u0027last 12 mo mean\u0027, s[-12:].mean(), \u0027median\u0027, s[-12:].median())\n# Negative binomial style simulation around recent mean with overdispersion\nmu = recent[-18:].mean(); var = recent[-18:].var()\nprint(\u0027mu\u0027,mu,\u0027var\u0027,var)\nrng=np.random.default_rng(0)\nif var\u003emu:\n r = mu**2/(var-mu); p = r/(r+mu)\n sim = rng.negative_binomial(r,p,200000)\nelse:\n sim = rng.poisson(mu,200000)\nfor lo,hi in buckets:\n print(f\u0027sim {lo}-{hi}: {((sim\u003e=lo)\u0026(sim\u003c=hi)).mean():.3f}\u0027)\n",
"description": "Estimate base-rate distribution of monthly CISA KEV additions and bucket probabilities via empirical frequencies plus a negative-binomial simulation."
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
},
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find the actual monthly counts of vulnerabilities added to the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities (KEV) catalog for each month in 2025 and 2026 to date (Date Added field). Also report the total catalog size and its recent growth rate, and any news about CISA KEV program changes, staffing/budget cuts, CVE Program funding issues, government shutdown impacts, or changes in KEV addition cadence/criteria that could raise or lower the monthly rate in 2026.",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "How many known vulnerabilities will CISA add to its KEV catalog in August 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"CISA KEV catalog additions 2026 monthly count",
"CISA adds vulnerabilities Known Exploited Vulnerabilities Catalog 2026",
"CISA KEV catalog total number of CVEs 2026"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq2",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_days": 120,
"queries": [
"CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog adds flaws",
"CISA budget cuts staffing vulnerability program",
"mass exploitation zero-day added to CISA KEV"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "article_search"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-07-30T00:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nCISA [maintains](https://www.cisa.gov/known-exploited-vulnerabilities-catalog/reducing-significant-risk-known-exploited-vulnerabilities) its Known Vulnerabilities Catalog as \"the authoritative source of vulnerabilities that have been exploited in the wild,\" to which civilian federal agencies are required to report.\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"11336a2a8d8482c6\", \"sheet_id\": \"126\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the number of vulnerabilities added to the CISA [Known Exploited Vulnerabilities Catalog](https://www.cisa.gov/known-exploited-vulnerabilities-catalog) with a Date Added in August 2026.",
"options": [
"17 or fewer",
"18\u201322",
"23\u201327",
"28\u201332",
"33 or more"
],
"question_type": "multiple_choice",
"title": "How many known vulnerabilities will the U.S. Cybersecurity \u0026 Infrastructure Security Agency add to its catalog in August 2026?"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.06, Volume: $127.4K",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 4,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 0.2,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Estimate base-rate distribution of monthly CISA KEV addition",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 31.31,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "14 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 29.15,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "0 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.8,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "22 articles",
"tool_name": "article_search"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [],
"information_gaps": [],
"key_uncertainties": [],
"n_evidence": 0
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 53.99,
"plan": 26.22,
"research": 31.31,
"synthesis": 7.8
}
}