Anchor on the CDC's July 20 figures (341 hospitalizations, ~7% hospitalization rate) and use historical Cyclospora seasonality plus reporting-lag uplift to build a Monte Carlo distribution; the threshold sub-questions (>400, >500, >650) plus the August-deceleration sub-question are blended via weighted average to locate the central estimate and tail width for the numeric answer.
## Cross-Market Signals ### No signal found
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 95 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC surveillance reported 4,940 cases and 341 hospitalizations for May 1–July 20, 2026, a ~6.9% hospitalization rate. 2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 92 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC's July 13 HAN reported 1,645 US-acquired lab-confirmed cases with 141 (9%) hospitalized, versus 308 US hospitalizations by July 20 — roughly +167 in one week. 3. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC is aware of more than 7,400 additional cases not yet lab-confirmed (largely Michigan and Ohio) beyond the 4,173 confirmed domestic cases. 4. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Taylor Farms de Mexico recalled all central-Mexico iceberg lettuce on July 17, 2026, removing the identified vehicle for the largest multistate cluster. 5. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Taco Bell-linked outbreak totaled 1,947 cases with at least 98 hospitalizations, with illness onsets ending July 20, 2026. 6. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC defines the US cyclosporiasis season as May 1–August 31, with 2026 median illness onset of June 26 (range May 1–July 16). 7. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] On July 24, FDA announced a new cyclospora outbreak from an unidentified product, while North Carolina investigated 560+ cases possibly tied to parsley, cilantro and lettuce. 8. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CBS reported on July 26 that more than 11,000 cyclosporiasis cases had been reported in 41 states since May, far above CDC's lab-confirmed tally. 9. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Illinois reported 408 confirmed/probable cases with 31 hospitalizations on July 22, having nearly doubled its case count in one week. 10. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] 2026 US case counts are roughly an order of magnitude above 2025 (249 cases nationally May 1–July 16, 2025), indicating an atypical outbreak year. 11. [sq2 | code_execution | WEAK cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo projection from the July 20 anchor yields a median of ~503 hospitalizations, with P(>400)=0.91, P(>500)=0.52, P(>650)=0.06. 12. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 60 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Reporting on federal food-safety staffing cuts and CDC capacity strain suggests possible delays in case confirmation and data updates. ## Cross-Market Signals ### No signal found Information gaps: - No historical base rate for what share of a Cyclospora season's hospitalizations are reported after July 20 - No CDC surveillance data after ~July 24, 2026 (question window runs to Aug 31) - Unclear whether Michigan/Ohio's 7,400+ probable cases will ever enter CDC's lab-confirmed hospitalization tally - No week-by-week hospitalization time series to measure peak weekly rate for sq4 Key uncertainties: - Whether the Taylor Farms recall truncated transmission or new vehicles (cilantro/parsley/unknown) sustain it - Magnitude of retrospective reporting-lag uplift added to May–July figures after Sept 1 - Whether CDC counts only lab-confirmed cases in hospitalization totals - Timing/content of the first CDC update posted on or after Sept 1, 2026
You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.
## Question
What will be the total number of global cyclosporiasis hospitalizations before September 2026, according to the CDC?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
According to the [U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/cyclosporiasis/about/index.html) (CDC): 
> Cyclosporiasis is a gastrointestinal illness caused by the microscopic parasite *Cyclospora.* People can become infected by consuming food or water that contains the parasite. Cyclosporiasis is not usually life-threatening, but it can make some people very sick.
The 2026 outbreaks, possibly [linked](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2026/07/14/authorities-investigate-taco-bell-lettuce-multistate-cyclosporiasis-outbreak/) to lettuce from Taco Bell, have the potential to reach higher numbers than previous years. From May 1 through July 20, 2026, there have been [a total of 4,940 cases with 341 hospitalizations](https://www.cdc.gov/cyclosporiasis/php/surveillance/index.html). 
| | Acquired in the U.S. | Acquired outside the U.S. |
| ---------------- | -------------------- | ------------------------- |
| Cases | 4,173 | 767 |
| Hospitalizations | 308 | 33 |
`{"format": "metac_reveal_and_close_in_period", "info": {"post_id": 44800, "question_id": 44947}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as the total number of cyclosporiasis cases involving hospitalizations, both inside and outside of the U.S., according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention at its [Surveillance of Cyclosporiasis](https://www.cdc.gov/cyclosporiasis/php/surveillance/index.html) tracking portal, from May 1, 2026 until August 31, 2026 (inclusive).
## Fine Print
The question will resolve according to the first update posted by the CDC on or after September 1, 2026, which is expected to cover reported cases through August 31, 2026.
No other data source will be used to resolve this question.
***
This question's information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44800) which opened on 2026-07-27 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.
## Range
The answer must be a number in [340.5, 500.5] (units: Hospitalizations).
## Sub-question decomposition (planner)
- (w=0.30) Will the CDC's first update on or after Sept 1, 2026 report total cyclosporiasis hospitalizations (US-acquired + outside-US, May 1–Aug 31, 2026) of MORE than 400? — 341 hospitalizations were already reported through July 20; even with a rapid seasonal decline, ~6 more weeks of reporti
- (w=0.30) Will the reported total hospitalizations exceed 500? — This is roughly the central scenario: continued but decelerating case accrual (typical late-season Cyclospora decline in
- (w=0.25) Will the reported total hospitalizations exceed 650? — Tests the upper-tail scenario in which the Taco Bell lettuce–linked multistate outbreak keeps generating large numbers o
- (w=0.15) Will the weekly rate of newly reported hospitalizations in August 2026 be substantially lower (less than half) than the mid-June-to-mid-July 2026 peak weekly rate? — The shape of the seasonal decline is the key driver of the final total; historically domestic Cyclospora cases peak in J
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 95 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC surveillance reported 4,940 cases and 341 hospitalizations for May 1–July 20, 2026, a ~6.9% hospitalization rate.
2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 92 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC's July 13 HAN reported 1,645 US-acquired lab-confirmed cases with 141 (9%) hospitalized, versus 308 US hospitalizations by July 20 — roughly +167 in one week.
3. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC is aware of more than 7,400 additional cases not yet lab-confirmed (largely Michigan and Ohio) beyond the 4,173 confirmed domestic cases.
4. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Taylor Farms de Mexico recalled all central-Mexico iceberg lettuce on July 17, 2026, removing the identified vehicle for the largest multistate cluster.
5. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Taco Bell-linked outbreak totaled 1,947 cases with at least 98 hospitalizations, with illness onsets ending July 20, 2026.
6. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC defines the US cyclosporiasis season as May 1–August 31, with 2026 median illness onset of June 26 (range May 1–July 16).
7. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] On July 24, FDA announced a new cyclospora outbreak from an unidentified product, while North Carolina investigated 560+ cases possibly tied to parsley, cilantro and lettuce.
8. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CBS reported on July 26 that more than 11,000 cyclosporiasis cases had been reported in 41 states since May, far above CDC's lab-confirmed tally.
9. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Illinois reported 408 confirmed/probable cases with 31 hospitalizations on July 22, having nearly doubled its case count in one week.
10. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] 2026 US case counts are roughly an order of magnitude above 2025 (249 cases nationally May 1–July 16, 2025), indicating an atypical outbreak year.
11. [sq2 | code_execution | WEAK cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo projection from the July 20 anchor yields a median of ~503 hospitalizations, with P(>400)=0.91, P(>500)=0.52, P(>650)=0.06.
12. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 60 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Reporting on federal food-safety staffing cuts and CDC capacity strain suggests possible delays in case confirmation and data updates.
## Cross-Market Signals
### No signal found
Information gaps:
- No historical base rate for what share of a Cyclospora season's hospitalizations are reported after July 20
- No CDC surveillance data after ~July 24, 2026 (question window runs to Aug 31)
- Unclear whether Michigan/Ohio's 7,400+ probable cases will ever enter CDC's lab-confirmed hospitalization tally
- No week-by-week hospitalization time series to measure peak weekly rate for sq4
Key uncertainties:
- Whether the Taylor Farms recall truncated transmission or new vehicles (cilantro/parsley/unknown) sustain it
- Magnitude of retrospective reporting-lag uplift added to May–July figures after Sept 1
- Whether CDC counts only lab-confirmed cases in hospitalization totals
- Timing/content of the first CDC update posted on or after Sept 1, 2026
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).
(c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.
(d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.
(e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).
(f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).
## Calibration guidance
- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.
- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.
- Don't pile mass at one value — if you're tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.
- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen — don't override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.
- **Relative-return / spread questions ("how much will X's return exceed Y's").** A near-zero median is usually right, but size the TAILS to the more VOLATILE leg, not to a generic 2-3pp spread. Two broad equity indices (e.g. Nasdaq-100 vs S&P 500) do stay within roughly ±2-3pp over a two-week window. But when one leg is a commodity (crude oil, gold) or a single high-beta stock (e.g. Nvidia), the two-week realized spread regularly reaches ±10pp or more — crude-vs-equity spreads have hit ±18pp. In those cases set p10/p90 to at least ±10pp (±15pp or wider for oil) while keeping the median near the status-quo spread; the 2-3pp intuition applies only to index-vs-index.
- **Heavy-tailed one-off magnitudes (opening-weekend box office, product-launch or debut numbers).** Pre-event tracking for these routinely misses by ±40% or more, and results land both far above and far below the consensus. Do NOT treat the displayed [min, max] range as the plausible range or clamp p10/p90 to its edges: the outcome can fall outside the range in either direction (recent opening weekends resolved ~7% above a displayed ceiling in one case and roughly half the displayed floor in another). Set p10/p90 wide enough that a 2x-or-0.5x surprise versus your central estimate still lands inside the interval, and when concrete current tracking disagrees with historical/franchise base rates, weight the tracking.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution — 6-10 sentences total>",
"p10": <number>,
"p25": <number>,
"p50": <number>,
"p75": <number>,
"p90": <number>
}
Percentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 <= p25 <= p50 <= p75 <= p90).
{
"forecast": {
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 95 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC surveillance reported 4,940 cases and 341 hospitalizations for May 1\u2013July 20, 2026, a ~6.9% hospitalization rate.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 92 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC\u0027s July 13 HAN reported 1,645 US-acquired lab-confirmed cases with 141 (9%) hospitalized, versus 308 US hospitalizations by July 20 \u2014 roughly +167 in one week.\n3. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC is aware of more than 7,400 additional cases not yet lab-confirmed (largely Michigan and Ohio) beyond the 4,173 confirmed domestic cases.\n4. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Taylor Farms de Mexico recalled all central-Mexico iceberg lettuce on July 17, 2026, removing the identified vehicle for the largest multistate cluster.\n5. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Taco Bell-linked outbreak totaled 1,947 cases with at least 98 hospitalizations, with illness onsets ending July 20, 2026.\n6. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC defines the US cyclosporiasis season as May 1\u2013August 31, with 2026 median illness onset of June 26 (range May 1\u2013July 16).\n7. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] On July 24, FDA announced a new cyclospora outbreak from an unidentified product, while North Carolina investigated 560+ cases possibly tied to parsley, cilantro and lettuce.\n8. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CBS reported on July 26 that more than 11,000 cyclosporiasis cases had been reported in 41 states since May, far above CDC\u0027s lab-confirmed tally.\n9. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Illinois reported 408 confirmed/probable cases with 31 hospitalizations on July 22, having nearly doubled its case count in one week.\n10. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] 2026 US case counts are roughly an order of magnitude above 2025 (249 cases nationally May 1\u2013July 16, 2025), indicating an atypical outbreak year.\n11. [sq2 | code_execution | WEAK cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo projection from the July 20 anchor yields a median of ~503 hospitalizations, with P(\u003e400)=0.91, P(\u003e500)=0.52, P(\u003e650)=0.06.\n12. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 60 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Reporting on federal food-safety staffing cuts and CDC capacity strain suggests possible delays in case confirmation and data updates.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No historical base rate for what share of a Cyclospora season\u0027s hospitalizations are reported after July 20\n - No CDC surveillance data after ~July 24, 2026 (question window runs to Aug 31)\n - Unclear whether Michigan/Ohio\u0027s 7,400+ probable cases will ever enter CDC\u0027s lab-confirmed hospitalization tally\n - No week-by-week hospitalization time series to measure peak weekly rate for sq4\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether the Taylor Farms recall truncated transmission or new vehicles (cilantro/parsley/unknown) sustain it\n - Magnitude of retrospective reporting-lag uplift added to May\u2013July figures after Sept 1\n - Whether CDC counts only lab-confirmed cases in hospitalization totals\n - Timing/content of the first CDC update posted on or after Sept 1, 2026",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.\n\n## Question\nWhat will be the total number of global cyclosporiasis hospitalizations before September 2026, according to the CDC?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nAccording to the [U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/cyclosporiasis/about/index.html) (CDC):\u0026#x20;\n\n\u003e Cyclosporiasis is a gastrointestinal illness caused by the microscopic parasite *Cyclospora.* People can become infected by consuming food or water that contains the parasite. Cyclosporiasis is not usually life-threatening, but it can make some people very sick.\n\nThe 2026 outbreaks, possibly [linked](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2026/07/14/authorities-investigate-taco-bell-lettuce-multistate-cyclosporiasis-outbreak/) to lettuce from Taco Bell, have the potential to reach higher numbers than previous years. From May 1 through July 20, 2026, there have been [a total of 4,940 cases with 341 hospitalizations](https://www.cdc.gov/cyclosporiasis/php/surveillance/index.html).\u0026#x20;\n\n| | Acquired in the U.S. | Acquired outside the U.S. |\n| ---------------- | -------------------- | ------------------------- |\n| Cases | 4,173 | 767 |\n| Hospitalizations | 308 | 33 |\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 44800, \"question_id\": 44947}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the total number of cyclosporiasis cases involving hospitalizations, both inside and outside of the U.S., according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention at its [Surveillance of Cyclosporiasis](https://www.cdc.gov/cyclosporiasis/php/surveillance/index.html) tracking portal, from May 1, 2026 until August 31, 2026 (inclusive).\n\n## Fine Print\nThe question will resolve according to the first update posted by the CDC on or after September 1, 2026, which is expected to cover reported cases through August 31, 2026.\n\nNo other data source will be used to resolve this question.\n\n***\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44800) which opened on 2026-07-27 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.\n\n## Range\nThe answer must be a number in [340.5, 500.5] (units: Hospitalizations).\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n- (w=0.30) Will the CDC\u0027s first update on or after Sept 1, 2026 report total cyclosporiasis hospitalizations (US-acquired + outside-US, May 1\u2013Aug 31, 2026) of MORE than 400? \u2014 341 hospitalizations were already reported through July 20; even with a rapid seasonal decline, ~6 more weeks of reporti\n- (w=0.30) Will the reported total hospitalizations exceed 500? \u2014 This is roughly the central scenario: continued but decelerating case accrual (typical late-season Cyclospora decline in\n- (w=0.25) Will the reported total hospitalizations exceed 650? \u2014 Tests the upper-tail scenario in which the Taco Bell lettuce\u2013linked multistate outbreak keeps generating large numbers o\n- (w=0.15) Will the weekly rate of newly reported hospitalizations in August 2026 be substantially lower (less than half) than the mid-June-to-mid-July 2026 peak weekly rate? \u2014 The shape of the seasonal decline is the key driver of the final total; historically domestic Cyclospora cases peak in J\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 95 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC surveillance reported 4,940 cases and 341 hospitalizations for May 1\u2013July 20, 2026, a ~6.9% hospitalization rate.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 92 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC\u0027s July 13 HAN reported 1,645 US-acquired lab-confirmed cases with 141 (9%) hospitalized, versus 308 US hospitalizations by July 20 \u2014 roughly +167 in one week.\n3. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC is aware of more than 7,400 additional cases not yet lab-confirmed (largely Michigan and Ohio) beyond the 4,173 confirmed domestic cases.\n4. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Taylor Farms de Mexico recalled all central-Mexico iceberg lettuce on July 17, 2026, removing the identified vehicle for the largest multistate cluster.\n5. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Taco Bell-linked outbreak totaled 1,947 cases with at least 98 hospitalizations, with illness onsets ending July 20, 2026.\n6. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC defines the US cyclosporiasis season as May 1\u2013August 31, with 2026 median illness onset of June 26 (range May 1\u2013July 16).\n7. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] On July 24, FDA announced a new cyclospora outbreak from an unidentified product, while North Carolina investigated 560+ cases possibly tied to parsley, cilantro and lettuce.\n8. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CBS reported on July 26 that more than 11,000 cyclosporiasis cases had been reported in 41 states since May, far above CDC\u0027s lab-confirmed tally.\n9. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Illinois reported 408 confirmed/probable cases with 31 hospitalizations on July 22, having nearly doubled its case count in one week.\n10. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] 2026 US case counts are roughly an order of magnitude above 2025 (249 cases nationally May 1\u2013July 16, 2025), indicating an atypical outbreak year.\n11. [sq2 | code_execution | WEAK cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo projection from the July 20 anchor yields a median of ~503 hospitalizations, with P(\u003e400)=0.91, P(\u003e500)=0.52, P(\u003e650)=0.06.\n12. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 60 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Reporting on federal food-safety staffing cuts and CDC capacity strain suggests possible delays in case confirmation and data updates.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No historical base rate for what share of a Cyclospora season\u0027s hospitalizations are reported after July 20\n - No CDC surveillance data after ~July 24, 2026 (question window runs to Aug 31)\n - Unclear whether Michigan/Ohio\u0027s 7,400+ probable cases will ever enter CDC\u0027s lab-confirmed hospitalization tally\n - No week-by-week hospitalization time series to measure peak weekly rate for sq4\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether the Taylor Farms recall truncated transmission or new vehicles (cilantro/parsley/unknown) sustain it\n - Magnitude of retrospective reporting-lag uplift added to May\u2013July figures after Sept 1\n - Whether CDC counts only lab-confirmed cases in hospitalization totals\n - Timing/content of the first CDC update posted on or after Sept 1, 2026\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).\n (c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.\n (d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.\n (e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).\n (f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.\n- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.\n- Don\u0027t pile mass at one value \u2014 if you\u0027re tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.\n- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen \u2014 don\u0027t override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.\n- **Relative-return / spread questions (\"how much will X\u0027s return exceed Y\u0027s\").** A near-zero median is usually right, but size the TAILS to the more VOLATILE leg, not to a generic 2-3pp spread. Two broad equity indices (e.g. Nasdaq-100 vs S\u0026P 500) do stay within roughly \u00b12-3pp over a two-week window. But when one leg is a commodity (crude oil, gold) or a single high-beta stock (e.g. Nvidia), the two-week realized spread regularly reaches \u00b110pp or more \u2014 crude-vs-equity spreads have hit \u00b118pp. In those cases set p10/p90 to at least \u00b110pp (\u00b115pp or wider for oil) while keeping the median near the status-quo spread; the 2-3pp intuition applies only to index-vs-index.\n- **Heavy-tailed one-off magnitudes (opening-weekend box office, product-launch or debut numbers).** Pre-event tracking for these routinely misses by \u00b140% or more, and results land both far above and far below the consensus. Do NOT treat the displayed [min, max] range as the plausible range or clamp p10/p90 to its edges: the outcome can fall outside the range in either direction (recent opening weekends resolved ~7% above a displayed ceiling in one case and roughly half the displayed floor in another). Set p10/p90 wide enough that a 2x-or-0.5x surprise versus your central estimate still lands inside the interval, and when concrete current tracking disagrees with historical/franchise base rates, weight the tracking.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution \u2014 6-10 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"p10\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p25\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p50\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p75\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p90\": \u003cnumber\u003e\n}\n\nPercentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 \u003c= p25 \u003c= p50 \u003c= p75 \u003c= p90).\n",
"models": [
"opus"
],
"p50": 484.0,
"percentiles": {
"0.1": 392.0,
"0.25": 440.0,
"0.5": 484.0,
"0.75": 500.0,
"0.9": 500.0
},
"rationale": "(a) The question resolves off the first CDC surveillance update on/after Sept 1, 2026 \u2014 about five weeks after the last data point available (341 hospitalizations for May 1\u2013July 20). (b) Status quo (no further reporting) would be 341, the floor of the range, but CDC updates weekly and reporting lags guarantee substantial additions. (c) The current trend is steep: US-acquired hospitalizations went from ~141 (July 13 HAN) to 308 (July 20), Illinois nearly doubled its count in a week, and 7,400+ probable cases plus new outbreak investigations (NC parsley/cilantro, FDA\u0027s July 24 unidentified vehicle) remain in the pipeline; even with the Taylor Farms recall (July 17) truncating exposure and onsets ending ~July 16, a 3\u20134 week confirmation lag means large additions through mid-August. (d) Base rates for Cyclospora seasons suggest only roughly half of a season\u0027s cases are reported by mid-July, which would imply a doubling to ~650+; the Monte Carlo projection (weak) gives a median ~503, P(\u003e500)\u22480.52 \u2014 both point at or above the top of this question\u0027s 500.5 ceiling, so the effective distribution is left-skewed toward the cap. (e) Low scenario (~p10): transmission genuinely stopped with the recall, CDC\u0027s Sept update adds only modest confirmations (cases plateauing near 6,000, ~7% hospitalization rate), and probable Michigan/Ohio cases never enter the lab-confirmed tally, plus staffing-driven reporting delays \u2014 landing near 390\u2013410. (f) High scenario: continued confirmations of the 7,000+ probable cases and new produce vehicles push lab-confirmed cases past 8,000\u201310,000, driving hospitalizations to 550\u2013700, i.e., resolution pinned at the 500.5 ceiling. I therefore place the median in the high 480s with meaningful mass compressed at the upper bound, while keeping a fat left tail for a fast, clean seasonal cutoff."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "health",
"n_sub_qs": 4,
"n_tools": 4,
"reasoning_approach": "Anchor on the CDC\u0027s July 20 figures (341 hospitalizations, ~7% hospitalization rate) and use historical Cyclospora seasonality plus reporting-lag uplift to build a Monte Carlo distribution; the threshold sub-questions (\u003e400, \u003e500, \u003e650) plus the August-deceleration sub-question are blended via weighted average to locate the central estimate and tail width for the numeric answer.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will the CDC\u0027s first update on or after Sept 1, 2026 report total cyclosporiasis hospitalizations (US-acquired + outside-US, May 1\u2013Aug 31, 2026) of MORE than 400?",
"rationale": "341 hospitalizations were already reported through July 20; even with a rapid seasonal decline, ~6 more weeks of reporting plus retrospective additions almost certainly push past 400, anchoring the lower bound of the distribution.",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will the reported total hospitalizations exceed 500?",
"rationale": "This is roughly the central scenario: continued but decelerating case accrual (typical late-season Cyclospora decline in August) plus reporting lag catch-up on the ~4,940 existing cases at a ~7% hospitalization rate.",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will the reported total hospitalizations exceed 650?",
"rationale": "Tests the upper-tail scenario in which the Taco Bell lettuce\u2013linked multistate outbreak keeps generating large numbers of new cases through August rather than fading with the usual seasonal curve.",
"weight": 0.25
},
{
"id": "sq4",
"question": "Will the weekly rate of newly reported hospitalizations in August 2026 be substantially lower (less than half) than the mid-June-to-mid-July 2026 peak weekly rate?",
"rationale": "The shape of the seasonal decline is the key driver of the final total; historically domestic Cyclospora cases peak in June\u2013July and drop sharply in August, but a produce-linked outbreak with ongoing distribution could sustain higher counts.",
"weight": 0.15
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"CDC cyclosporiasis surveillance 2026 hospitalizations cases update",
"Taco Bell lettuce cyclosporiasis outbreak August 2026 case count",
"cyclosporiasis outbreak 2026 CDC weekly update cases"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find the most recent CDC Cyclosporiasis surveillance figures for the 2026 season (cases and hospitalizations, US-acquired and outside-US, cumulative since May 1, 2026), the weekly trajectory of new cases/hospitalizations in July 2026, and the status of the multistate outbreak investigation possibly linked to Taco Bell lettuce (recalls, whether the source has been removed from commerce). Also find historical CDC domestic cyclosporiasis case/hospitalization counts and the typical monthly seasonal distribution (share of cases with onset in August vs June-July) for 2018-2025.",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "What will be the total number of global cyclosporiasis hospitalizations before September 2026, according to the CDC?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\n\n# Anchor: 341 hospitalizations, 4940 cases reported May 1 - Jul 20, 2026 (CDC)\nH0 = 341\nC0 = 4940\nhosp_rate = H0/C0\nprint(\u0027hosp rate\u0027, hosp_rate)\n\n# Historical CDC domestic cyclosporiasis seasonality: cases peak Jun-Jul, sharp decline Aug.\n# Assume share of season-total (May-Aug) cases with onset after Jul 20 ranges 10%-35%.\n# Also reporting lag: cases with onset before Jul 20 still to be reported (5%-25% uplift).\nrng = np.random.default_rng(0)\nN = 200000\nlate_share = rng.uniform(0.08, 0.35, N) # fraction of season total occurring after Jul 20\nlag_uplift = rng.uniform(1.04, 1.28, N) # retrospective additions to pre-Jul-20 counts\nrate = rng.normal(hosp_rate, 0.008, N).clip(0.04, 0.11)\n\npre = C0*lag_uplift\ntotal_cases = pre/(1-late_share)\ntotal_hosp = total_cases*rate\n# floor: cannot be below already-reported 341\ntotal_hosp = np.maximum(total_hosp, H0)\n\nqs=[5,10,25,50,75,90,95]\nprint(\u0027cases pct\u0027, np.percentile(total_cases, qs).round(0))\nprint(\u0027hosp pct\u0027, np.percentile(total_hosp, qs).round(0))\nfor t in [400,450,500,550,650,800]:\n print(\u0027P(\u003e%d) = %.3f\u0027%(t,(total_hosp\u003et).mean()))\n",
"description": "Monte Carlo projection of May 1-Aug 31 2026 cyclosporiasis hospitalizations from the July 20 anchor (341 hosp / 4,940 cases), varying the post-July-20 share of the season and reporting-lag uplift."
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_days": 60,
"queries": [
"cyclosporiasis outbreak hospitalizations CDC 2026",
"Cyclospora lettuce recall multistate outbreak",
"CDC parasite outbreak restaurant lettuce cases rise"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "article_search"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-07-28T17:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nAccording to the [U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/cyclosporiasis/about/index.html) (CDC):\u0026#x20;\n\n\u003e Cyclosporiasis is a gastrointestinal illness caused by the microscopic parasite *Cyclospora.* People can become infected by consuming food or water that contains the parasite. Cyclosporiasis is not usually life-threatening, but it can make some people very sick.\n\nThe 2026 outbreaks, possibly [linked](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2026/07/14/authorities-investigate-taco-bell-lettuce-multistate-cyclosporiasis-outbreak/) to lettuce from Taco Bell, have the potential to reach higher numbers than previous years. From May 1 through July 20, 2026, there have been [a total of 4,940 cases with 341 hospitalizations](https://www.cdc.gov/cyclosporiasis/php/surveillance/index.html).\u0026#x20;\n\n| | Acquired in the U.S. | Acquired outside the U.S. |\n| ---------------- | -------------------- | ------------------------- |\n| Cases | 4,173 | 767 |\n| Hospitalizations | 308 | 33 |\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 44800, \"question_id\": 44947}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the total number of cyclosporiasis cases involving hospitalizations, both inside and outside of the U.S., according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention at its [Surveillance of Cyclosporiasis](https://www.cdc.gov/cyclosporiasis/php/surveillance/index.html) tracking portal, from May 1, 2026 until August 31, 2026 (inclusive).\n\n## Fine Print\nThe question will resolve according to the first update posted by the CDC on or after September 1, 2026, which is expected to cover reported cases through August 31, 2026.\n\nNo other data source will be used to resolve this question.\n\n***\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44800) which opened on 2026-07-27 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.",
"open_lower": false,
"open_upper": true,
"q_max": 500.5,
"q_min": 340.5,
"question_type": "numeric",
"title": "What will be the total number of global cyclosporiasis hospitalizations before September 2026, according to the CDC?",
"units": "Hospitalizations"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 4,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 35.11,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "0 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 27.91,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "17 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.17,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Monte Carlo projection of May 1-Aug 31 2026 cyclosporiasis h",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.56,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "24 articles",
"tool_name": "article_search"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "CDC surveillance reported 4,940 cases and 341 hospitalizations for May 1\u2013July 20, 2026, a ~6.9% hospitalization rate.",
"credibility": 95,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "CDC\u0027s July 13 HAN reported 1,645 US-acquired lab-confirmed cases with 141 (9%) hospitalized, versus 308 US hospitalizations by July 20 \u2014 roughly +167 in one week.",
"credibility": 92,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "CDC is aware of more than 7,400 additional cases not yet lab-confirmed (largely Michigan and Ohio) beyond the 4,173 confirmed domestic cases.",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Taylor Farms de Mexico recalled all central-Mexico iceberg lettuce on July 17, 2026, removing the identified vehicle for the largest multistate cluster.",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "Taco Bell-linked outbreak totaled 1,947 cases with at least 98 hospitalizations, with illness onsets ending July 20, 2026.",
"credibility": 88,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "CDC defines the US cyclosporiasis season as May 1\u2013August 31, with 2026 median illness onset of June 26 (range May 1\u2013July 16).",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "On July 24, FDA announced a new cyclospora outbreak from an unidentified product, while North Carolina investigated 560+ cases possibly tied to parsley, cilantro and lettuce.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "CBS reported on July 26 that more than 11,000 cyclosporiasis cases had been reported in 41 states since May, far above CDC\u0027s lab-confirmed tally.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Illinois reported 408 confirmed/probable cases with 31 hospitalizations on July 22, having nearly doubled its case count in one week.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "2026 US case counts are roughly an order of magnitude above 2025 (249 cases nationally May 1\u2013July 16, 2025), indicating an atypical outbreak year.",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Monte Carlo projection from the July 20 anchor yields a median of ~503 hospitalizations, with P(\u003e400)=0.91, P(\u003e500)=0.52, P(\u003e650)=0.06.",
"credibility": 40,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Reporting on federal food-safety staffing cuts and CDC capacity strain suggests possible delays in case confirmation and data updates.",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No historical base rate for what share of a Cyclospora season\u0027s hospitalizations are reported after July 20",
"No CDC surveillance data after ~July 24, 2026 (question window runs to Aug 31)",
"Unclear whether Michigan/Ohio\u0027s 7,400+ probable cases will ever enter CDC\u0027s lab-confirmed hospitalization tally",
"No week-by-week hospitalization time series to measure peak weekly rate for sq4"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether the Taylor Farms recall truncated transmission or new vehicles (cilantro/parsley/unknown) sustain it",
"Magnitude of retrospective reporting-lag uplift added to May\u2013July figures after Sept 1",
"Whether CDC counts only lab-confirmed cases in hospitalization totals",
"Timing/content of the first CDC update posted on or after Sept 1, 2026"
],
"n_evidence": 12
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 71.05,
"plan": 30.33,
"research": 35.11,
"synthesis": 32.62
}
}