Anchor on Percy's latest observed position and direction plus known seasonal white shark migration to build a displacement-based distribution over coastal landmasses, then blend with a stale-ping/status-quo weight; sub-question probabilities are correlated (all driven by the same movement trajectory) so combine via weighted average and normalize across the option set.
## Cross-Market Signals ### No signal found
1. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Percy's satellite tag transmitted a location off Cocoa Beach on Florida's east coast as of July 5-6, 2026, showing the SPOT tag was active roughly 8 weeks before resolution. 2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | NEUTRAL | DATED] On April 26, 2026 researchers recovered Percy's archival (PSAT) tag off Pensacola Beach with 270 days of data; his SPOT satellite tag continued pinging afterward. 3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | RECENT] Percy's documented ping history is sparse and irregular (April 21, April 26, weak z-ping May 6, May 11, then July 5), with multi-week gaps between transmissions. 4. [sq2 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The most recent known ping (July 5, 2026) places Percy off Cocoa Beach with Florida due west, making Florida the status-quo answer if the tag goes silent. 5. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | RECENT] Percy spent April–early May 2026 in the northern Gulf near Pensacola/Gulf Shores before appearing on Florida's Atlantic coast by July, implying rapid recent eastward/northward movement. 6. [sq2 | code_execution | WEAK cred 40 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] A displacement model using Percy's observed 10.8 mi/day average track speed assigns roughly 21% probability to him still being off Florida on September 1. 7. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 40 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The same model places ~74-78% cumulative probability on Georgia through Maryland/Delaware (Georgia ~33%, South Carolina ~23%, North Carolina ~18%, Virginia ~4%). 8. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Reaching Georgia requires only ~4.8 net northward miles/day and South Carolina ~6.9 mi/day, both below Percy's observed 10.8 mi/day average track speed. 9. [sq3 | wikipedia_lookup | WEAK cred 80 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Great whites are partially warm-blooded and remain active in cold water, so summer thermal limits do not constrain northward movement along the US East Coast. 10. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Other OCEARCH-tagged white sharks (Bella, Contender) were pinging in Atlantic Canadian waters in July 2026 as part of the seasonal northward summer migration. 11. [sq4 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] The displacement model assigns under 1% combined probability to New Jersey, New York, New England or Canada, requiring 17-29 net northward miles/day from Cocoa Beach. 12. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 65 | DOWN | RECENT] Percy is a small immature male (9 ft 9 in, 432 lb); juvenile white sharks typically summer in the Mid-Atlantic/New York Bight rather than Cape Cod or Canada. ## Cross-Market Signals ### No signal found Information gaps: - No direct read of the OCEARCH tracker for pings after July 6, 2026 - No base rate for how often OCEARCH SPOT tags go >30 days without a ping - No historical track of similar juvenile white sharks' Sept 1 positions - Unknown whether Percy is moving north or lingering off central Florida Key uncertainties: - Whether the tag pings at all in late August (stale-ping status quo favors Florida) - Net northward speed vs. milling/residency off Florida-Georgia - Possibility of a southward or offshore/Gulf Stream excursion - Ambiguity in 'closest landmass due west' near state boundaries
You are an elite superforecaster. Estimate the probability of each option for this Metaculus multiple-choice question.
## Question
Where will be the great white shark Percy on September 1, 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
[Gulf Coast Journeys citing Info from OCEARCH](https://www.facebook.com/GulfCoastJourneys/posts/percy-is-on-the-move-again-the-9-foot-9-inch-432-pound-great-white-is-now-off-th/955230944207870/): "Percy is on the move again! The 9 foot 9 inch, 432-pound Great White is now off the east coast of Florida near Cocoa Beach as of July 5, 2026.
He spent time off the coast of Gulf Shores back in April and early May.
In 342 days since being tagged, he has traveled an impressive 3,705 miles following food sources along the way. So cool to watch this incredible shark migrate in real time!"
`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "05d2779bf8a394be", "sheet_id": "134"}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as the closest landmass due west of the shark Percy according to the most recent ping at his [Ocearch tracker](https://www.ocearch.org/tracker/detail/percy) as of September 1, 2026.
## Fine Print
For example, the most recent ping as of this question's writing is on July 6, 2026, with Florida being due west of Percy.
## Options
- Florida
- Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina
- Virginia or Maryland
- Any other U.S. State
- Somewhere else
## Sub-question decomposition (planner)
- (w=0.20) As of September 1, 2026, will Percy's most recent OCEARCH ping be dated within the preceding 30 days (i.e., tag still actively transmitting in August 2026)? — If the tag stops pinging or the shark stays submerged for weeks, resolution reverts to a stale ping location (likely Flo
- (w=0.25) Will the landmass due west of Percy's resolving ping be Florida? — He was off Cocoa Beach in early July 2026; persistence/stale-ping scenarios and slow movement keep Florida in play as th
- (w=0.30) Will the resolving ping place Percy off the US Southeast/Mid-Atlantic (Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland/Delaware)? — Juvenile/subadult white sharks tagged in the SE US typically move north along the shelf in summer; Carolinas/Virginia is
- (w=0.25) Will the resolving ping place Percy off the Northeast US or Atlantic Canada (New Jersey, New York, New England, Nova Scotia/Newfoundland)? — Late summer is peak season for white sharks in the New York Bight, Cape Cod, and Nova Scotia; a fast northward migration
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Percy's satellite tag transmitted a location off Cocoa Beach on Florida's east coast as of July 5-6, 2026, showing the SPOT tag was active roughly 8 weeks before resolution.
2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | NEUTRAL | DATED] On April 26, 2026 researchers recovered Percy's archival (PSAT) tag off Pensacola Beach with 270 days of data; his SPOT satellite tag continued pinging afterward.
3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | RECENT] Percy's documented ping history is sparse and irregular (April 21, April 26, weak z-ping May 6, May 11, then July 5), with multi-week gaps between transmissions.
4. [sq2 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The most recent known ping (July 5, 2026) places Percy off Cocoa Beach with Florida due west, making Florida the status-quo answer if the tag goes silent.
5. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | RECENT] Percy spent April–early May 2026 in the northern Gulf near Pensacola/Gulf Shores before appearing on Florida's Atlantic coast by July, implying rapid recent eastward/northward movement.
6. [sq2 | code_execution | WEAK cred 40 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] A displacement model using Percy's observed 10.8 mi/day average track speed assigns roughly 21% probability to him still being off Florida on September 1.
7. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 40 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The same model places ~74-78% cumulative probability on Georgia through Maryland/Delaware (Georgia ~33%, South Carolina ~23%, North Carolina ~18%, Virginia ~4%).
8. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Reaching Georgia requires only ~4.8 net northward miles/day and South Carolina ~6.9 mi/day, both below Percy's observed 10.8 mi/day average track speed.
9. [sq3 | wikipedia_lookup | WEAK cred 80 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Great whites are partially warm-blooded and remain active in cold water, so summer thermal limits do not constrain northward movement along the US East Coast.
10. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Other OCEARCH-tagged white sharks (Bella, Contender) were pinging in Atlantic Canadian waters in July 2026 as part of the seasonal northward summer migration.
11. [sq4 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] The displacement model assigns under 1% combined probability to New Jersey, New York, New England or Canada, requiring 17-29 net northward miles/day from Cocoa Beach.
12. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 65 | DOWN | RECENT] Percy is a small immature male (9 ft 9 in, 432 lb); juvenile white sharks typically summer in the Mid-Atlantic/New York Bight rather than Cape Cod or Canada.
## Cross-Market Signals
### No signal found
Information gaps:
- No direct read of the OCEARCH tracker for pings after July 6, 2026
- No base rate for how often OCEARCH SPOT tags go >30 days without a ping
- No historical track of similar juvenile white sharks' Sept 1 positions
- Unknown whether Percy is moving north or lingering off central Florida
Key uncertainties:
- Whether the tag pings at all in late August (stale-ping status quo favors Florida)
- Net northward speed vs. milling/residency off Florida-Georgia
- Possibility of a southward or offshore/Gulf Stream excursion
- Ambiguity in 'closest landmass due west' near state boundaries
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving probabilities, address these explicitly in your rationale:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The status quo outcome — the option most likely if nothing changes from today.
(c) An outcome that would be SURPRISING but plausible.
## Calibration guidance
- **Status quo anchoring.** Good forecasters put extra weight on the status quo option because the world changes slowly most of the time.
- **Leave moderate probability on most options.** Good forecasters don't drop options to ~0% — leave ≥3-5% on every option to account for unexpected outcomes, unless you have strong specific evidence ruling them out.
- Avoid uniform-distribution laziness — most options are not equally likely.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) for these options appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong prior and stay close to them absent specific contrary evidence.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) above, then explain your distribution — 4-7 sentences total>",
"probabilities": {
"Florida": <prob>,
"Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina": <prob>,
"Virginia or Maryland": <prob>,
"Any other U.S. State": <prob>,
"Somewhere else": <prob>
}
}
Probabilities MUST sum to ~1.0 (renormalization is applied; close enough is fine).
{
"forecast": {
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Percy\u0027s satellite tag transmitted a location off Cocoa Beach on Florida\u0027s east coast as of July 5-6, 2026, showing the SPOT tag was active roughly 8 weeks before resolution.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | NEUTRAL | DATED] On April 26, 2026 researchers recovered Percy\u0027s archival (PSAT) tag off Pensacola Beach with 270 days of data; his SPOT satellite tag continued pinging afterward.\n3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | RECENT] Percy\u0027s documented ping history is sparse and irregular (April 21, April 26, weak z-ping May 6, May 11, then July 5), with multi-week gaps between transmissions.\n4. [sq2 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The most recent known ping (July 5, 2026) places Percy off Cocoa Beach with Florida due west, making Florida the status-quo answer if the tag goes silent.\n5. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | RECENT] Percy spent April\u2013early May 2026 in the northern Gulf near Pensacola/Gulf Shores before appearing on Florida\u0027s Atlantic coast by July, implying rapid recent eastward/northward movement.\n6. [sq2 | code_execution | WEAK cred 40 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] A displacement model using Percy\u0027s observed 10.8 mi/day average track speed assigns roughly 21% probability to him still being off Florida on September 1.\n7. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 40 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The same model places ~74-78% cumulative probability on Georgia through Maryland/Delaware (Georgia ~33%, South Carolina ~23%, North Carolina ~18%, Virginia ~4%).\n8. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Reaching Georgia requires only ~4.8 net northward miles/day and South Carolina ~6.9 mi/day, both below Percy\u0027s observed 10.8 mi/day average track speed.\n9. [sq3 | wikipedia_lookup | WEAK cred 80 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Great whites are partially warm-blooded and remain active in cold water, so summer thermal limits do not constrain northward movement along the US East Coast.\n10. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Other OCEARCH-tagged white sharks (Bella, Contender) were pinging in Atlantic Canadian waters in July 2026 as part of the seasonal northward summer migration.\n11. [sq4 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] The displacement model assigns under 1% combined probability to New Jersey, New York, New England or Canada, requiring 17-29 net northward miles/day from Cocoa Beach.\n12. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 65 | DOWN | RECENT] Percy is a small immature male (9 ft 9 in, 432 lb); juvenile white sharks typically summer in the Mid-Atlantic/New York Bight rather than Cape Cod or Canada.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No direct read of the OCEARCH tracker for pings after July 6, 2026\n - No base rate for how often OCEARCH SPOT tags go \u003e30 days without a ping\n - No historical track of similar juvenile white sharks\u0027 Sept 1 positions\n - Unknown whether Percy is moving north or lingering off central Florida\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether the tag pings at all in late August (stale-ping status quo favors Florida)\n - Net northward speed vs. milling/residency off Florida-Georgia\n - Possibility of a southward or offshore/Gulf Stream excursion\n - Ambiguity in \u0027closest landmass due west\u0027 near state boundaries",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Estimate the probability of each option for this Metaculus multiple-choice question.\n\n## Question\nWhere will be the great white shark Percy on September 1, 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\n[Gulf Coast Journeys citing Info from OCEARCH](https://www.facebook.com/GulfCoastJourneys/posts/percy-is-on-the-move-again-the-9-foot-9-inch-432-pound-great-white-is-now-off-th/955230944207870/): \"Percy is on the move again! The 9 foot 9 inch, 432-pound Great White is now off the east coast of Florida near Cocoa Beach as of July 5, 2026. \nHe spent time off the coast of Gulf Shores back in April and early May.\nIn 342 days since being tagged, he has traveled an impressive 3,705 miles following food sources along the way. So cool to watch this incredible shark migrate in real time!\"\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"05d2779bf8a394be\", \"sheet_id\": \"134\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the closest landmass due west of the shark Percy according to the most recent ping at his [Ocearch tracker](https://www.ocearch.org/tracker/detail/percy) as of September 1, 2026.\n\n## Fine Print\nFor example, the most recent ping as of this question\u0027s writing is on July 6, 2026, with Florida being due west of Percy.\n\n## Options\n - Florida\n - Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina\n - Virginia or Maryland\n - Any other U.S. State\n - Somewhere else\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n- (w=0.20) As of September 1, 2026, will Percy\u0027s most recent OCEARCH ping be dated within the preceding 30 days (i.e., tag still actively transmitting in August 2026)? \u2014 If the tag stops pinging or the shark stays submerged for weeks, resolution reverts to a stale ping location (likely Flo\n- (w=0.25) Will the landmass due west of Percy\u0027s resolving ping be Florida? \u2014 He was off Cocoa Beach in early July 2026; persistence/stale-ping scenarios and slow movement keep Florida in play as th\n- (w=0.30) Will the resolving ping place Percy off the US Southeast/Mid-Atlantic (Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland/Delaware)? \u2014 Juvenile/subadult white sharks tagged in the SE US typically move north along the shelf in summer; Carolinas/Virginia is\n- (w=0.25) Will the resolving ping place Percy off the Northeast US or Atlantic Canada (New Jersey, New York, New England, Nova Scotia/Newfoundland)? \u2014 Late summer is peak season for white sharks in the New York Bight, Cape Cod, and Nova Scotia; a fast northward migration\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Percy\u0027s satellite tag transmitted a location off Cocoa Beach on Florida\u0027s east coast as of July 5-6, 2026, showing the SPOT tag was active roughly 8 weeks before resolution.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | NEUTRAL | DATED] On April 26, 2026 researchers recovered Percy\u0027s archival (PSAT) tag off Pensacola Beach with 270 days of data; his SPOT satellite tag continued pinging afterward.\n3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | RECENT] Percy\u0027s documented ping history is sparse and irregular (April 21, April 26, weak z-ping May 6, May 11, then July 5), with multi-week gaps between transmissions.\n4. [sq2 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The most recent known ping (July 5, 2026) places Percy off Cocoa Beach with Florida due west, making Florida the status-quo answer if the tag goes silent.\n5. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | RECENT] Percy spent April\u2013early May 2026 in the northern Gulf near Pensacola/Gulf Shores before appearing on Florida\u0027s Atlantic coast by July, implying rapid recent eastward/northward movement.\n6. [sq2 | code_execution | WEAK cred 40 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] A displacement model using Percy\u0027s observed 10.8 mi/day average track speed assigns roughly 21% probability to him still being off Florida on September 1.\n7. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 40 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The same model places ~74-78% cumulative probability on Georgia through Maryland/Delaware (Georgia ~33%, South Carolina ~23%, North Carolina ~18%, Virginia ~4%).\n8. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Reaching Georgia requires only ~4.8 net northward miles/day and South Carolina ~6.9 mi/day, both below Percy\u0027s observed 10.8 mi/day average track speed.\n9. [sq3 | wikipedia_lookup | WEAK cred 80 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Great whites are partially warm-blooded and remain active in cold water, so summer thermal limits do not constrain northward movement along the US East Coast.\n10. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Other OCEARCH-tagged white sharks (Bella, Contender) were pinging in Atlantic Canadian waters in July 2026 as part of the seasonal northward summer migration.\n11. [sq4 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] The displacement model assigns under 1% combined probability to New Jersey, New York, New England or Canada, requiring 17-29 net northward miles/day from Cocoa Beach.\n12. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 65 | DOWN | RECENT] Percy is a small immature male (9 ft 9 in, 432 lb); juvenile white sharks typically summer in the Mid-Atlantic/New York Bight rather than Cape Cod or Canada.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No direct read of the OCEARCH tracker for pings after July 6, 2026\n - No base rate for how often OCEARCH SPOT tags go \u003e30 days without a ping\n - No historical track of similar juvenile white sharks\u0027 Sept 1 positions\n - Unknown whether Percy is moving north or lingering off central Florida\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether the tag pings at all in late August (stale-ping status quo favors Florida)\n - Net northward speed vs. milling/residency off Florida-Georgia\n - Possibility of a southward or offshore/Gulf Stream excursion\n - Ambiguity in \u0027closest landmass due west\u0027 near state boundaries\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving probabilities, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The status quo outcome \u2014 the option most likely if nothing changes from today.\n (c) An outcome that would be SURPRISING but plausible.\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Status quo anchoring.** Good forecasters put extra weight on the status quo option because the world changes slowly most of the time.\n- **Leave moderate probability on most options.** Good forecasters don\u0027t drop options to ~0% \u2014 leave \u22653-5% on every option to account for unexpected outcomes, unless you have strong specific evidence ruling them out.\n- Avoid uniform-distribution laziness \u2014 most options are not equally likely.\n- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) for these options appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong prior and stay close to them absent specific contrary evidence.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) (b) (c) above, then explain your distribution \u2014 4-7 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"probabilities\": {\n \"Florida\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Virginia or Maryland\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Any other U.S. State\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Somewhere else\": \u003cprob\u003e\n }\n}\n\nProbabilities MUST sum to ~1.0 (renormalization is applied; close enough is fine).\n",
"models": [
"opus"
],
"probabilities": {
"Any other U.S. State": 0.13,
"Florida": 0.27,
"Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina": 0.4,
"Somewhere else": 0.08,
"Virginia or Maryland": 0.12
},
"rationale": "(a) About 8 weeks remain between the last known ping (July 5, 2026, off Cocoa Beach) and the September 1 resolution date. (b) The status quo is Florida: it is where Percy was last located, and because his SPOT transmissions are sparse and irregular (multi-week gaps, e.g. May 11 \u2192 July 5), there is a meaningful chance the \u0027most recent ping\u0027 on September 1 is still a Florida-coast ping, or a ping from mid-July before he moved far. (c) A surprising but plausible outcome would be a fast Gulf Stream\u2013assisted run to the New York Bight/New England or Atlantic Canada (other OCEARCH sharks were already in Canadian waters in July), or an offshore/Bahamas excursion where the nearest landmass due west is not the US mainland. Balancing the displacement model (~21% Florida, ~75% Georgia\u2013Maryland, \u003c1% Northeast) against behavioral evidence that immature white sharks commonly summer in the Mid-Atlantic/NY Bight by late August, and against the stale-ping bias toward Florida, I keep Florida elevated above the pure-model 21% and shift some mass northward relative to the model. The Southeast band (GA/SC/NC) is the modal outcome because it requires only 5\u20137 net miles/day, well within his observed 10.8 mi/day track speed, and Cape Hatteras is a common late-summer waypoint. I leave low-but-nonzero weight on Virginia/Maryland, on more northern states (NJ/NY/New England/Delaware), and on non-US options such as Canada or the Bahamas.",
"top_option": "Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina"
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "science",
"n_sub_qs": 4,
"n_tools": 4,
"reasoning_approach": "Anchor on Percy\u0027s latest observed position and direction plus known seasonal white shark migration to build a displacement-based distribution over coastal landmasses, then blend with a stale-ping/status-quo weight; sub-question probabilities are correlated (all driven by the same movement trajectory) so combine via weighted average and normalize across the option set.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "As of September 1, 2026, will Percy\u0027s most recent OCEARCH ping be dated within the preceding 30 days (i.e., tag still actively transmitting in August 2026)?",
"rationale": "If the tag stops pinging or the shark stays submerged for weeks, resolution reverts to a stale ping location (likely Florida or wherever he last surfaced), which changes the outcome distribution drastically.",
"weight": 0.2
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will the landmass due west of Percy\u0027s resolving ping be Florida?",
"rationale": "He was off Cocoa Beach in early July 2026; persistence/stale-ping scenarios and slow movement keep Florida in play as the status-quo answer.",
"weight": 0.25
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will the resolving ping place Percy off the US Southeast/Mid-Atlantic (Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland/Delaware)?",
"rationale": "Juvenile/subadult white sharks tagged in the SE US typically move north along the shelf in summer; Carolinas/Virginia is a high-probability corridor by early September.",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq4",
"question": "Will the resolving ping place Percy off the Northeast US or Atlantic Canada (New Jersey, New York, New England, Nova Scotia/Newfoundland)?",
"rationale": "Late summer is peak season for white sharks in the New York Bight, Cape Cod, and Nova Scotia; a fast northward migration from Florida in ~8 weeks is plausible at observed swim speeds.",
"weight": 0.25
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"OCEARCH Percy shark tracker latest ping 2026",
"Percy great white shark OCEARCH July 2026 location",
"ocearch.org tracker detail percy"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find the most recent OCEARCH tracking pings for the great white shark \u0027Percy\u0027 (tagged mid-2025, ~9\u00279\", 432 lb). Determine: (a) date and coordinates of the latest ping, (b) recent trajectory/direction (northward or southward) over the last 4-8 weeks, (c) ping frequency (how many days typically between pings), and (d) any news coverage of Percy\u0027s movements. Also note general late-summer distribution of juvenile/subadult white sharks tagged by OCEARCH in the western North Atlantic (e.g., New York Bight, Cape Cod, Nova Scotia vs Carolinas).",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "Where will be the great white shark Percy on September 1, 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"Great white shark migration western North Atlantic",
"OCEARCH",
"White shark Cape Cod seasonal residency"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "wikipedia_lookup"
},
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\n# Percy: tagged ~2025-07-28, traveled 3705 miles in 342 days =\u003e avg track distance/day\navg = 3705/342\nprint(\u0027avg miles/day along track:\u0027, round(avg,2))\n# Days from Cocoa Beach ping (2026-07-05) to 2026-09-01\ndays = 58\n# Net northward displacement is typically 30-60% of track distance\nfor eff in [0.3,0.45,0.6,0.8]:\n print(eff, \u0027net north miles by Sep 1:\u0027, round(avg*days*eff))\n# Approximate northward distances from Cocoa Beach (28.3N) along coast (statute miles)\nlandmarks = {\u0027Georgia\u0027:280,\u0027South Carolina\u0027:400,\u0027North Carolina\u0027:560,\u0027Virginia\u0027:800,\u0027Maryland/Delaware\u0027:900,\u0027New Jersey\u0027:1000,\u0027New York\u0027:1080,\u0027Massachusetts/Cape Cod\u0027:1300,\u0027Nova Scotia\u0027:1700}\nfor k,v in landmarks.items():\n print(k, v, \u0027miles -\u003e needed net mi/day:\u0027, round(v/days,1))\n# Monte Carlo: net northward speed lognormal-ish\nrng=np.random.default_rng(0)\nnet = rng.normal(avg*0.5, avg*0.35, 200000)*days\nnet = np.clip(net, -400, None)\nbins=[-1e9,140,340,480,680,860,960,1040,1190,1500,1e9]\nlabels=[\u0027Florida\u0027,\u0027Georgia\u0027,\u0027South Carolina\u0027,\u0027North Carolina\u0027,\u0027Virginia\u0027,\u0027Maryland/Delaware\u0027,\u0027New Jersey\u0027,\u0027New York\u0027,\u0027New England\u0027,\u0027Canada\u0027]\nidx=np.digitize(net,bins[1:-1])\nfor i,l in enumerate(labels):\n print(l, round((idx==i).mean(),3))\n",
"description": "Estimate plausible northward displacement of Percy from Cocoa Beach by Sept 1, 2026 using observed average track speed, and convert to a rough probability distribution over coastal landmasses."
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-07-28T03:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\n[Gulf Coast Journeys citing Info from OCEARCH](https://www.facebook.com/GulfCoastJourneys/posts/percy-is-on-the-move-again-the-9-foot-9-inch-432-pound-great-white-is-now-off-th/955230944207870/): \"Percy is on the move again! The 9 foot 9 inch, 432-pound Great White is now off the east coast of Florida near Cocoa Beach as of July 5, 2026. \nHe spent time off the coast of Gulf Shores back in April and early May.\nIn 342 days since being tagged, he has traveled an impressive 3,705 miles following food sources along the way. So cool to watch this incredible shark migrate in real time!\"\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"05d2779bf8a394be\", \"sheet_id\": \"134\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the closest landmass due west of the shark Percy according to the most recent ping at his [Ocearch tracker](https://www.ocearch.org/tracker/detail/percy) as of September 1, 2026.\n\n## Fine Print\nFor example, the most recent ping as of this question\u0027s writing is on July 6, 2026, with Florida being due west of Percy.",
"options": [
"Florida",
"Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina",
"Virginia or Maryland",
"Any other U.S. State",
"Somewhere else"
],
"question_type": "multiple_choice",
"title": "Where will be the great white shark Percy on September 1, 2026?"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 4,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 31.46,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "0 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 40.08,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "9 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 1.33,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "3 pages",
"tool_name": "wikipedia_lookup"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.24,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Estimate plausible northward displacement of Percy from Coco",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "Percy\u0027s satellite tag transmitted a location off Cocoa Beach on Florida\u0027s east coast as of July 5-6, 2026, showing the SPOT tag was active roughly 8 weeks before resolution.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "On April 26, 2026 researchers recovered Percy\u0027s archival (PSAT) tag off Pensacola Beach with 270 days of data; his SPOT satellite tag continued pinging afterward.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Percy\u0027s documented ping history is sparse and irregular (April 21, April 26, weak z-ping May 6, May 11, then July 5), with multi-week gaps between transmissions.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "The most recent known ping (July 5, 2026) places Percy off Cocoa Beach with Florida due west, making Florida the status-quo answer if the tag goes silent.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Percy spent April\u2013early May 2026 in the northern Gulf near Pensacola/Gulf Shores before appearing on Florida\u0027s Atlantic coast by July, implying rapid recent eastward/northward movement.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "A displacement model using Percy\u0027s observed 10.8 mi/day average track speed assigns roughly 21% probability to him still being off Florida on September 1.",
"credibility": 40,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "The same model places ~74-78% cumulative probability on Georgia through Maryland/Delaware (Georgia ~33%, South Carolina ~23%, North Carolina ~18%, Virginia ~4%).",
"credibility": 40,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Reaching Georgia requires only ~4.8 net northward miles/day and South Carolina ~6.9 mi/day, both below Percy\u0027s observed 10.8 mi/day average track speed.",
"credibility": 45,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Great whites are partially warm-blooded and remain active in cold water, so summer thermal limits do not constrain northward movement along the US East Coast.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "wikipedia_lookup",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Other OCEARCH-tagged white sharks (Bella, Contender) were pinging in Atlantic Canadian waters in July 2026 as part of the seasonal northward summer migration.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "The displacement model assigns under 1% combined probability to New Jersey, New York, New England or Canada, requiring 17-29 net northward miles/day from Cocoa Beach.",
"credibility": 45,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "Percy is a small immature male (9 ft 9 in, 432 lb); juvenile white sharks typically summer in the Mid-Atlantic/New York Bight rather than Cape Cod or Canada.",
"credibility": 65,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No direct read of the OCEARCH tracker for pings after July 6, 2026",
"No base rate for how often OCEARCH SPOT tags go \u003e30 days without a ping",
"No historical track of similar juvenile white sharks\u0027 Sept 1 positions",
"Unknown whether Percy is moving north or lingering off central Florida"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether the tag pings at all in late August (stale-ping status quo favors Florida)",
"Net northward speed vs. milling/residency off Florida-Georgia",
"Possibility of a southward or offshore/Gulf Stream excursion",
"Ambiguity in \u0027closest landmass due west\u0027 near state boundaries"
],
"n_evidence": 12
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 60.27,
"plan": 36.95,
"research": 40.09,
"synthesis": 34.3
}
}