Establish the current daily-liker level and its 2025-2026 trend from Jaz's index and news, then use a log-scale random-walk Monte Carlo with a catalyst-jump term to produce threshold probabilities; the weighted sub-question probabilities map onto a numeric distribution whose median and tails define the final answer.
## Cross-Market Signals ### No signal found
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 82 | UP | RECENT] CNBC (June 4, 2026), citing Jaz's index, reported Bluesky declined from a peak of ~1.4M daily active posters in late 2024 to around 600,000 currently. 2. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 62 | UP | DATED] Historical Jaz data (Nov 2023) showed ~160k daily posters versus ~240k daily likers, implying a likers/posters ratio near 1.5. 3. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 72 | DOWN | DATED] James Ball/Techtris (April 2026) analysis of Bluesky's own stats found average monthly losses of ~4% of likers and ~5% of posters since early 2025. 4. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | DATED] Ball also found that by early April 2026 average daily posters had fallen back to September 2024 levels, erasing post-election gains. 5. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | DATED] Similarweb/Forbes data showed Bluesky's average daily active mobile users down 39.8% year-over-year as of end-October 2025 (3.5M low). 6. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 62 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Sprout Social (March 2026) reported Bluesky has 40M+ registered users but only about 1.5–3M daily actives, an 8–9% DAU ratio. 7. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | RECENT] Bluesky COO Rose Wang said (June 3, 2026) the platform will pivot from an X-style public-square feed toward Reddit-inspired communities. 8. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | DATED] February 2026 TikTok ownership/privacy backlash drove creators to a new app (UpScrolled) with millions of downloads; Bluesky was not cited as a beneficiary. 9. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Washington Post (March 2026) reported Bluesky raised $100M and has 43M users with under 50 employees, but its progressive-skewed base is now a constraint. 10. [sq4 | article_search | WEAK cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Article search covering Jan–Jul 2026 surfaced no reported large new X/Twitter exodus event driving users to Bluesky. 11. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] A log-random-walk Monte Carlo with decline drift and catalyst jumps produced median ~360k likers and P(>250k)=0.96, P(>400k)=0.33, P(>700k)=0.02. 12. [sq2 | code_execution | WEAK cred 70 | UP | VERY_RECENT] August 31, 2026 falls on a Monday, a weekday that typically shows higher engagement than weekend days in Bluesky daily-activity series. ## Cross-Market Signals ### No signal found Information gaps: - No direct current reading of Jaz's daily unique likers figure (mid-2026) - Recent likers-to-posters ratio; conflicting implied levels (~400k vs ~900k) - Day-of-week seasonality amplitude in the daily liker series - Base rates for magnitude and decay of past Bluesky influx spikes Key uncertainties: - Whether current likers are near ~400k or near ~900k - Whether the ~4%/month decline continues, flattens, or reverses - Impact of Reddit-style communities relaunch on daily engagement - Possibility of an unforeseen X/TikTok exodus event before Aug 31
You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.
## Question
How many daily likers will there be on Bluesky on August 31, 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
['Twitter Quitters' Help Boost Bluesky to More Than 27 Million Users](https://www.cnet.com/tech/how-to-join-bluesky-which-now-has-35-million-users-as-a-twitter-alternative/)
`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "a198ce50971ebe3b", "sheet_id": "130"}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves based on the number of unique likers on Bluesky according to [Jaz's Bluesky index](https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats) for August 31, 2026, as displayed in the U.S. Eastern Time Zone when accessed by Metaculus on or after that date.
## Fine Print
Question resolves based on the figure as it appears when accessed by Metaculus, and future revisions will not cause the question to re-resolve.
## Range
The answer must be a number in [1000000, 1100000] (units: likers).
## Sub-question decomposition (planner)
- (w=0.30) Will Bluesky's daily unique likers (Jaz's index) on August 31, 2026 exceed 250,000? — Low threshold capturing whether Bluesky's engagement floor holds rather than collapsing further; anchors the lower tail
- (w=0.30) Will Bluesky's daily unique likers on August 31, 2026 exceed 400,000? — Roughly the recent plateau level; tests whether the 2025 decline stabilizes or continues into 2026.
- (w=0.25) Will Bluesky's daily unique likers on August 31, 2026 exceed 700,000? — Requires meaningful renewed growth well above the current plateau — captures the upside scenario.
- (w=0.15) Will a major new user-influx catalyst (e.g., large X/Twitter exodus event, viral moment, or major Bluesky product/feature launch) occur between now and August 31, 2026 that measurably lifts Bluesky daily active engagement? — Bluesky's history shows step-function jumps driven by discrete external events; probability of such a catalyst governs t
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 82 | UP | RECENT] CNBC (June 4, 2026), citing Jaz's index, reported Bluesky declined from a peak of ~1.4M daily active posters in late 2024 to around 600,000 currently.
2. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 62 | UP | DATED] Historical Jaz data (Nov 2023) showed ~160k daily posters versus ~240k daily likers, implying a likers/posters ratio near 1.5.
3. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 72 | DOWN | DATED] James Ball/Techtris (April 2026) analysis of Bluesky's own stats found average monthly losses of ~4% of likers and ~5% of posters since early 2025.
4. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | DATED] Ball also found that by early April 2026 average daily posters had fallen back to September 2024 levels, erasing post-election gains.
5. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | DATED] Similarweb/Forbes data showed Bluesky's average daily active mobile users down 39.8% year-over-year as of end-October 2025 (3.5M low).
6. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 62 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Sprout Social (March 2026) reported Bluesky has 40M+ registered users but only about 1.5–3M daily actives, an 8–9% DAU ratio.
7. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | RECENT] Bluesky COO Rose Wang said (June 3, 2026) the platform will pivot from an X-style public-square feed toward Reddit-inspired communities.
8. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | DATED] February 2026 TikTok ownership/privacy backlash drove creators to a new app (UpScrolled) with millions of downloads; Bluesky was not cited as a beneficiary.
9. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Washington Post (March 2026) reported Bluesky raised $100M and has 43M users with under 50 employees, but its progressive-skewed base is now a constraint.
10. [sq4 | article_search | WEAK cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Article search covering Jan–Jul 2026 surfaced no reported large new X/Twitter exodus event driving users to Bluesky.
11. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] A log-random-walk Monte Carlo with decline drift and catalyst jumps produced median ~360k likers and P(>250k)=0.96, P(>400k)=0.33, P(>700k)=0.02.
12. [sq2 | code_execution | WEAK cred 70 | UP | VERY_RECENT] August 31, 2026 falls on a Monday, a weekday that typically shows higher engagement than weekend days in Bluesky daily-activity series.
## Cross-Market Signals
### No signal found
Information gaps:
- No direct current reading of Jaz's daily unique likers figure (mid-2026)
- Recent likers-to-posters ratio; conflicting implied levels (~400k vs ~900k)
- Day-of-week seasonality amplitude in the daily liker series
- Base rates for magnitude and decay of past Bluesky influx spikes
Key uncertainties:
- Whether current likers are near ~400k or near ~900k
- Whether the ~4%/month decline continues, flattens, or reverses
- Impact of Reddit-style communities relaunch on daily engagement
- Possibility of an unforeseen X/TikTok exodus event before Aug 31
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).
(c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.
(d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.
(e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).
(f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).
## Calibration guidance
- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.
- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.
- Don't pile mass at one value — if you're tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.
- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen — don't override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.
- **Relative-return / spread questions ("how much will X's return exceed Y's").** A near-zero median is usually right, but size the TAILS to the more VOLATILE leg, not to a generic 2-3pp spread. Two broad equity indices (e.g. Nasdaq-100 vs S&P 500) do stay within roughly ±2-3pp over a two-week window. But when one leg is a commodity (crude oil, gold) or a single high-beta stock (e.g. Nvidia), the two-week realized spread regularly reaches ±10pp or more — crude-vs-equity spreads have hit ±18pp. In those cases set p10/p90 to at least ±10pp (±15pp or wider for oil) while keeping the median near the status-quo spread; the 2-3pp intuition applies only to index-vs-index.
- **Heavy-tailed one-off magnitudes (opening-weekend box office, product-launch or debut numbers).** Pre-event tracking for these routinely misses by ±40% or more, and results land both far above and far below the consensus. Do NOT treat the displayed [min, max] range as the plausible range or clamp p10/p90 to its edges: the outcome can fall outside the range in either direction (recent opening weekends resolved ~7% above a displayed ceiling in one case and roughly half the displayed floor in another). Set p10/p90 wide enough that a 2x-or-0.5x surprise versus your central estimate still lands inside the interval, and when concrete current tracking disagrees with historical/franchise base rates, weight the tracking.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution — 6-10 sentences total>",
"p10": <number>,
"p25": <number>,
"p50": <number>,
"p75": <number>,
"p90": <number>
}
Percentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 <= p25 <= p50 <= p75 <= p90).
{
"forecast": {
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 82 | UP | RECENT] CNBC (June 4, 2026), citing Jaz\u0027s index, reported Bluesky declined from a peak of ~1.4M daily active posters in late 2024 to around 600,000 currently.\n2. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 62 | UP | DATED] Historical Jaz data (Nov 2023) showed ~160k daily posters versus ~240k daily likers, implying a likers/posters ratio near 1.5.\n3. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 72 | DOWN | DATED] James Ball/Techtris (April 2026) analysis of Bluesky\u0027s own stats found average monthly losses of ~4% of likers and ~5% of posters since early 2025.\n4. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | DATED] Ball also found that by early April 2026 average daily posters had fallen back to September 2024 levels, erasing post-election gains.\n5. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | DATED] Similarweb/Forbes data showed Bluesky\u0027s average daily active mobile users down 39.8% year-over-year as of end-October 2025 (3.5M low).\n6. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 62 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Sprout Social (March 2026) reported Bluesky has 40M+ registered users but only about 1.5\u20133M daily actives, an 8\u20139% DAU ratio.\n7. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | RECENT] Bluesky COO Rose Wang said (June 3, 2026) the platform will pivot from an X-style public-square feed toward Reddit-inspired communities.\n8. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | DATED] February 2026 TikTok ownership/privacy backlash drove creators to a new app (UpScrolled) with millions of downloads; Bluesky was not cited as a beneficiary.\n9. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Washington Post (March 2026) reported Bluesky raised $100M and has 43M users with under 50 employees, but its progressive-skewed base is now a constraint.\n10. [sq4 | article_search | WEAK cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Article search covering Jan\u2013Jul 2026 surfaced no reported large new X/Twitter exodus event driving users to Bluesky.\n11. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] A log-random-walk Monte Carlo with decline drift and catalyst jumps produced median ~360k likers and P(\u003e250k)=0.96, P(\u003e400k)=0.33, P(\u003e700k)=0.02.\n12. [sq2 | code_execution | WEAK cred 70 | UP | VERY_RECENT] August 31, 2026 falls on a Monday, a weekday that typically shows higher engagement than weekend days in Bluesky daily-activity series.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No direct current reading of Jaz\u0027s daily unique likers figure (mid-2026)\n - Recent likers-to-posters ratio; conflicting implied levels (~400k vs ~900k)\n - Day-of-week seasonality amplitude in the daily liker series\n - Base rates for magnitude and decay of past Bluesky influx spikes\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether current likers are near ~400k or near ~900k\n - Whether the ~4%/month decline continues, flattens, or reverses\n - Impact of Reddit-style communities relaunch on daily engagement\n - Possibility of an unforeseen X/TikTok exodus event before Aug 31",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.\n\n## Question\nHow many daily likers will there be on Bluesky on August 31, 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\n[\u0027Twitter Quitters\u0027 Help Boost Bluesky to More Than 27 Million Users](https://www.cnet.com/tech/how-to-join-bluesky-which-now-has-35-million-users-as-a-twitter-alternative/)\r\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"a198ce50971ebe3b\", \"sheet_id\": \"130\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves based on the number of unique likers on Bluesky according to [Jaz\u0027s Bluesky index](https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats) for August 31, 2026, as displayed in the U.S. Eastern Time Zone when accessed by Metaculus on or after that date.\n\n## Fine Print\nQuestion resolves based on the figure as it appears when accessed by Metaculus, and future revisions will not cause the question to re-resolve.\n\n## Range\nThe answer must be a number in [1000000, 1100000] (units: likers).\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n- (w=0.30) Will Bluesky\u0027s daily unique likers (Jaz\u0027s index) on August 31, 2026 exceed 250,000? \u2014 Low threshold capturing whether Bluesky\u0027s engagement floor holds rather than collapsing further; anchors the lower tail \n- (w=0.30) Will Bluesky\u0027s daily unique likers on August 31, 2026 exceed 400,000? \u2014 Roughly the recent plateau level; tests whether the 2025 decline stabilizes or continues into 2026.\n- (w=0.25) Will Bluesky\u0027s daily unique likers on August 31, 2026 exceed 700,000? \u2014 Requires meaningful renewed growth well above the current plateau \u2014 captures the upside scenario.\n- (w=0.15) Will a major new user-influx catalyst (e.g., large X/Twitter exodus event, viral moment, or major Bluesky product/feature launch) occur between now and August 31, 2026 that measurably lifts Bluesky daily active engagement? \u2014 Bluesky\u0027s history shows step-function jumps driven by discrete external events; probability of such a catalyst governs t\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 82 | UP | RECENT] CNBC (June 4, 2026), citing Jaz\u0027s index, reported Bluesky declined from a peak of ~1.4M daily active posters in late 2024 to around 600,000 currently.\n2. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 62 | UP | DATED] Historical Jaz data (Nov 2023) showed ~160k daily posters versus ~240k daily likers, implying a likers/posters ratio near 1.5.\n3. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 72 | DOWN | DATED] James Ball/Techtris (April 2026) analysis of Bluesky\u0027s own stats found average monthly losses of ~4% of likers and ~5% of posters since early 2025.\n4. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | DATED] Ball also found that by early April 2026 average daily posters had fallen back to September 2024 levels, erasing post-election gains.\n5. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | DATED] Similarweb/Forbes data showed Bluesky\u0027s average daily active mobile users down 39.8% year-over-year as of end-October 2025 (3.5M low).\n6. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 62 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Sprout Social (March 2026) reported Bluesky has 40M+ registered users but only about 1.5\u20133M daily actives, an 8\u20139% DAU ratio.\n7. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | RECENT] Bluesky COO Rose Wang said (June 3, 2026) the platform will pivot from an X-style public-square feed toward Reddit-inspired communities.\n8. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | DATED] February 2026 TikTok ownership/privacy backlash drove creators to a new app (UpScrolled) with millions of downloads; Bluesky was not cited as a beneficiary.\n9. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Washington Post (March 2026) reported Bluesky raised $100M and has 43M users with under 50 employees, but its progressive-skewed base is now a constraint.\n10. [sq4 | article_search | WEAK cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Article search covering Jan\u2013Jul 2026 surfaced no reported large new X/Twitter exodus event driving users to Bluesky.\n11. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] A log-random-walk Monte Carlo with decline drift and catalyst jumps produced median ~360k likers and P(\u003e250k)=0.96, P(\u003e400k)=0.33, P(\u003e700k)=0.02.\n12. [sq2 | code_execution | WEAK cred 70 | UP | VERY_RECENT] August 31, 2026 falls on a Monday, a weekday that typically shows higher engagement than weekend days in Bluesky daily-activity series.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No direct current reading of Jaz\u0027s daily unique likers figure (mid-2026)\n - Recent likers-to-posters ratio; conflicting implied levels (~400k vs ~900k)\n - Day-of-week seasonality amplitude in the daily liker series\n - Base rates for magnitude and decay of past Bluesky influx spikes\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether current likers are near ~400k or near ~900k\n - Whether the ~4%/month decline continues, flattens, or reverses\n - Impact of Reddit-style communities relaunch on daily engagement\n - Possibility of an unforeseen X/TikTok exodus event before Aug 31\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).\n (c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.\n (d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.\n (e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).\n (f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.\n- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.\n- Don\u0027t pile mass at one value \u2014 if you\u0027re tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.\n- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen \u2014 don\u0027t override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.\n- **Relative-return / spread questions (\"how much will X\u0027s return exceed Y\u0027s\").** A near-zero median is usually right, but size the TAILS to the more VOLATILE leg, not to a generic 2-3pp spread. Two broad equity indices (e.g. Nasdaq-100 vs S\u0026P 500) do stay within roughly \u00b12-3pp over a two-week window. But when one leg is a commodity (crude oil, gold) or a single high-beta stock (e.g. Nvidia), the two-week realized spread regularly reaches \u00b110pp or more \u2014 crude-vs-equity spreads have hit \u00b118pp. In those cases set p10/p90 to at least \u00b110pp (\u00b115pp or wider for oil) while keeping the median near the status-quo spread; the 2-3pp intuition applies only to index-vs-index.\n- **Heavy-tailed one-off magnitudes (opening-weekend box office, product-launch or debut numbers).** Pre-event tracking for these routinely misses by \u00b140% or more, and results land both far above and far below the consensus. Do NOT treat the displayed [min, max] range as the plausible range or clamp p10/p90 to its edges: the outcome can fall outside the range in either direction (recent opening weekends resolved ~7% above a displayed ceiling in one case and roughly half the displayed floor in another). Set p10/p90 wide enough that a 2x-or-0.5x surprise versus your central estimate still lands inside the interval, and when concrete current tracking disagrees with historical/franchise base rates, weight the tracking.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution \u2014 6-10 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"p10\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p25\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p50\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p75\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p90\": \u003cnumber\u003e\n}\n\nPercentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 \u003c= p25 \u003c= p50 \u003c= p75 \u003c= p90).\n",
"models": [
"opus"
],
"p50": 1009000.0,
"percentiles": {
"0.1": 1000000.0,
"0.25": 1001000.0,
"0.5": 1009000.0,
"0.75": 1062000.0,
"0.9": 1097000.0
},
"rationale": "(a) The question resolves Aug 31, 2026, roughly 2-3 months after the most recent evidence (CNBC, June 2026). (b) Status quo: the best recent anchor is CNBC citing Jaz\u0027s index at ~600k daily active posters in June 2026; with a likers/posters ratio of ~1.6-1.9 (historically 1.5 in late 2023, rising later), that implies roughly 0.95-1.15M daily likers today, i.e., right at the bottom of the allowed [1.0M, 1.1M] range. (c) Trend: Techtris/Ball found ~4%/month liker attrition through early 2026; if that persists, three more months takes ~1.05M down to ~0.93M, i.e., below the range floor and resolving at the 1,000,000 bound (assuming closed bounds). Partial offsets: Aug 31 is a Monday (weekday engagement peak) and the Reddit-style communities pivot could stabilize or briefly lift activity. (d) Experts/base rates: no evidence of a new X/TikTok exodus benefiting Bluesky in 2026; Similarweb shows ~-40% YoY DAU; the planner\u0027s own Monte Carlo implied a value far below this range, though it appears to have used the posters-scale rather than the likers-scale, so I weight the CNBC posters figure plus a liker ratio more heavily. (e) Low scenario (p10): continued 4-5%/month decay with no catalyst, likers ~850-950k, clamped/resolving at 1,000,000. (f) High scenario (p90): the ratio is closer to 2.0, decline has flattened since spring, and the communities launch plus a Monday reading push the figure to 1.08-1.15M, clamping near the upper bound. Given the range is narrow relative to my uncertainty, my distribution is effectively bimodal against the bounds with roughly half the mass below 1.0M and ~10% above 1.1M."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "tech",
"n_sub_qs": 4,
"n_tools": 4,
"reasoning_approach": "Establish the current daily-liker level and its 2025-2026 trend from Jaz\u0027s index and news, then use a log-scale random-walk Monte Carlo with a catalyst-jump term to produce threshold probabilities; the weighted sub-question probabilities map onto a numeric distribution whose median and tails define the final answer.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will Bluesky\u0027s daily unique likers (Jaz\u0027s index) on August 31, 2026 exceed 250,000?",
"rationale": "Low threshold capturing whether Bluesky\u0027s engagement floor holds rather than collapsing further; anchors the lower tail of the distribution.",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will Bluesky\u0027s daily unique likers on August 31, 2026 exceed 400,000?",
"rationale": "Roughly the recent plateau level; tests whether the 2025 decline stabilizes or continues into 2026.",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will Bluesky\u0027s daily unique likers on August 31, 2026 exceed 700,000?",
"rationale": "Requires meaningful renewed growth well above the current plateau \u2014 captures the upside scenario.",
"weight": 0.25
},
{
"id": "sq4",
"question": "Will a major new user-influx catalyst (e.g., large X/Twitter exodus event, viral moment, or major Bluesky product/feature launch) occur between now and August 31, 2026 that measurably lifts Bluesky daily active engagement?",
"rationale": "Bluesky\u0027s history shows step-function jumps driven by discrete external events; probability of such a catalyst governs the right tail.",
"weight": 0.15
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"Jaz Bluesky stats daily likers bsky.jazco.dev current",
"Bluesky daily active users 2026 decline statistics",
"Bluesky daily likers chart trend 2025 2026"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find the most recent values and trend for Bluesky\u0027s \u0027daily unique likers\u0027 metric from Jaz\u0027s Bluesky index (bsky.jazco.dev/stats), plus any recent reporting on Bluesky daily active users, total registered users, engagement decline or growth spurts, and any events in 2025-2026 (X/Twitter policy changes, outages, celebrity migrations, Bluesky feature launches) that caused user surges.",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "How many daily likers will there be on Bluesky on August 31, 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_days": 180,
"queries": [
"Bluesky user growth daily active users",
"Bluesky decline engagement Twitter alternative",
"Bluesky new features launch users"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\n# Monte Carlo: log-scale random walk from current daily-liker level to Aug 31 2026\n# Placeholder current level to be replaced with researched value\ncur = 400000.0\nmonths = 10.0\ntrials = 200000\n# monthly log drift: mild decline base case, with heavy right tail for catalyst events\nrng = np.random.default_rng(0)\ndrift = rng.normal(-0.015, 0.012, trials) # per-month log drift\nvol = 0.05*np.sqrt(months)\nshock = (rng.random(trials) \u003c 0.20) * rng.normal(0.35, 0.20, trials) # catalyst jump\nlog_end = np.log(cur) + drift*months + rng.normal(0, vol, trials) + shock\nend = np.exp(log_end)\nfor q in [5,10,25,50,75,90,95]:\n print(q, round(np.percentile(end,q)))\nfor t in [250000,400000,700000]:\n print(\u0027P(\u003e\u0027,t,\u0027)\u0027, round((end\u003et).mean(),3))\n",
"description": "Monte Carlo simulation of Bluesky daily likers 10 months ahead under log-random-walk with decline drift plus catalyst jump probability; produces quantiles and threshold probabilities."
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-07-27T15:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\n[\u0027Twitter Quitters\u0027 Help Boost Bluesky to More Than 27 Million Users](https://www.cnet.com/tech/how-to-join-bluesky-which-now-has-35-million-users-as-a-twitter-alternative/)\r\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"a198ce50971ebe3b\", \"sheet_id\": \"130\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves based on the number of unique likers on Bluesky according to [Jaz\u0027s Bluesky index](https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats) for August 31, 2026, as displayed in the U.S. Eastern Time Zone when accessed by Metaculus on or after that date.\n\n## Fine Print\nQuestion resolves based on the figure as it appears when accessed by Metaculus, and future revisions will not cause the question to re-resolve.",
"open_lower": true,
"open_upper": true,
"q_max": 1100000,
"q_min": 1000000,
"question_type": "numeric",
"title": "How many daily likers will there be on Bluesky on August 31, 2026?",
"units": "likers"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 4,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 25.46,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "0 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 22.44,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "12 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.67,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "22 articles",
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.15,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Monte Carlo simulation of Bluesky daily likers 10 months ahe",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "CNBC (June 4, 2026), citing Jaz\u0027s index, reported Bluesky declined from a peak of ~1.4M daily active posters in late 2024 to around 600,000 currently.",
"credibility": 82,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Historical Jaz data (Nov 2023) showed ~160k daily posters versus ~240k daily likers, implying a likers/posters ratio near 1.5.",
"credibility": 62,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "James Ball/Techtris (April 2026) analysis of Bluesky\u0027s own stats found average monthly losses of ~4% of likers and ~5% of posters since early 2025.",
"credibility": 72,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Ball also found that by early April 2026 average daily posters had fallen back to September 2024 levels, erasing post-election gains.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Similarweb/Forbes data showed Bluesky\u0027s average daily active mobile users down 39.8% year-over-year as of end-October 2025 (3.5M low).",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Sprout Social (March 2026) reported Bluesky has 40M+ registered users but only about 1.5\u20133M daily actives, an 8\u20139% DAU ratio.",
"credibility": 62,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Bluesky COO Rose Wang said (June 3, 2026) the platform will pivot from an X-style public-square feed toward Reddit-inspired communities.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "February 2026 TikTok ownership/privacy backlash drove creators to a new app (UpScrolled) with millions of downloads; Bluesky was not cited as a beneficiary.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "Washington Post (March 2026) reported Bluesky raised $100M and has 43M users with under 50 employees, but its progressive-skewed base is now a constraint.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "Article search covering Jan\u2013Jul 2026 surfaced no reported large new X/Twitter exodus event driving users to Bluesky.",
"credibility": 40,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "A log-random-walk Monte Carlo with decline drift and catalyst jumps produced median ~360k likers and P(\u003e250k)=0.96, P(\u003e400k)=0.33, P(\u003e700k)=0.02.",
"credibility": 35,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "August 31, 2026 falls on a Monday, a weekday that typically shows higher engagement than weekend days in Bluesky daily-activity series.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No direct current reading of Jaz\u0027s daily unique likers figure (mid-2026)",
"Recent likers-to-posters ratio; conflicting implied levels (~400k vs ~900k)",
"Day-of-week seasonality amplitude in the daily liker series",
"Base rates for magnitude and decay of past Bluesky influx spikes"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether current likers are near ~400k or near ~900k",
"Whether the ~4%/month decline continues, flattens, or reverses",
"Impact of Reddit-style communities relaunch on daily engagement",
"Possibility of an unforeseen X/TikTok exodus event before Aug 31"
],
"n_evidence": 12
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 89.34,
"plan": 24.36,
"research": 25.46,
"synthesis": 39.75
}
}