## Cross-Market Signals

### No signal found

1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | DOWN | DATED] CDC historical cyclosporiasis surveillance (2011-2015 period, 2,207 cases; and annual reports through 2025) reports no deaths in domestically acquired cases.
2. [sq1 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | DATED] Cyclosporiasis is a self-limiting diarrheal illness treatable with TMP-SMX; it is not characterized as a commonly fatal infection in immunocompetent hosts.
3. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Laplace-succession base rate for a year with at least one reported cyclosporiasis death computed at ~4-12% depending on assumed CFR upper bound.
4. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC reported 4,173 lab-confirmed domestic cyclosporiasis cases since May 1, 2026, plus over 7,400 additional unconfirmed cases under investigation.
5. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Comparable 2025 period (May 1–July 16) had only 249 nationally reported cases, versus 1,645 by mid-July 2026 — roughly a 6-7x increase.
6. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC/AP describe a Taco Bell–linked outbreak from Taylor Farms shredded iceberg lettuce across nine states with 1,947 cases — the nation's largest known cyclosporiasis outbreak.
7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Case-patients in the 2026 outbreak range in age from 2 to 95 years (median 44), and 141 of 1,645 (9%) were hospitalized.
8. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC states it is publishing weekly cyclosporiasis surveillance data updates in 2026 due to the multistate case increase, with pages updated July 14 and ~July 25-26.
9. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The CDC surveillance page explicitly reports hospitalization and death counts ('no deaths have been reported'), confirming a deaths field exists in 2026 reporting.
10. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 92 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] As of the latest CDC update (~July 25-26, 2026), no deaths have been reported among 2026 cyclosporiasis cases.
11. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] AP/PBS reporting on the Taco Bell outbreak confirms at least 98 hospitalizations with no deaths reported as of July 24, 2026.
12. [sq4 | claude_news | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] News searches surfaced no report of any cyclosporiasis-attributed death in 2025 or 2026 in the United States.

## Cross-Market Signals

### No signal found

Information gaps:
  - No documented historical CFR for cyclosporiasis in US outbreaks (case-fatality base rate absent)
  - Unclear whether CDC would attribute/report a death in an immunocompromised co-morbid patient
  - No data on outbreak trajectory/whether case counts are still climbing into August 2026
  - No prediction-market or Kalshi pricing data provided

Key uncertainties:
  - Whether a death among ~12,000 total 2026 cases gets identified and attributed before Sept 1
  - Reporting lag between a death occurring and CDC table update
  - Severity mix — whether elderly/immunocompromised patients are heavily represented
  - Whether CDC continues weekly updates through August 2026

You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates — your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.

## Question
Will any deaths from cyclosporiasis occur before September 1, 2026, according to the CDC?

## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
According to the resolution source, "Cyclosporiasis is a gastrointestinal disease caused by the microscopic parasite Cyclospora. Cyclosporiasis is a nationally notifiable disease and is reportable in 47 states, the District of Columbia, and New York City. Even if it is not reportable in a state, it is important for healthcare providers and the public to inform local health departments about potential cases and clusters of the disease so that they can take appropriate action to prevent additional cases."

`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "9a581ea5de8be843", "sheet_id": "137"}}`

## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control's [Surveillance of Cyclosporiasis](https://www.cdc.gov/cyclosporiasis/php/surveillance/index.html) portal at any point before September 1, 2026, the number of deaths from the 2026 outbreaks of cyclosporiasis is greater than zero.

## Sub-question decomposition
- (w=0.45) Have CDC cyclosporiasis surveillance reports in any prior year (2018-2025) listed one or more deaths among domestically acquired cyclosporiasis cases?  — Historical base rate of nonzero deaths in the CDC surveillance table is the dominant driver; cyclosporiasis is rarely fa
- (w=0.25) Will the 2026 cyclosporiasis season be unusually large (e.g., a major multistate foodborne outbreak with case counts well above the recent average) before September 1, 2026?  — A larger outbreak raises the chance of a death occurring among immunocompromised or elderly patients, though case-fatali
- (w=0.20) Will the CDC surveillance portal actually publish and update a 2026 outbreak table with a 'deaths' field before September 1, 2026?  — Resolution requires the CDC page to report a death count greater than zero; reporting lags, page restructuring, or absen
- (w=0.10) Is there any current news or CDC report (as of now) of a death linked to cyclosporiasis in 2025 or 2026?  — Direct evidence of an ongoing fatal case would sharply raise probability.

Combination rule: **weighted_average**

## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | DOWN | DATED] CDC historical cyclosporiasis surveillance (2011-2015 period, 2,207 cases; and annual reports through 2025) reports no deaths in domestically acquired cases.
2. [sq1 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | DATED] Cyclosporiasis is a self-limiting diarrheal illness treatable with TMP-SMX; it is not characterized as a commonly fatal infection in immunocompetent hosts.
3. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Laplace-succession base rate for a year with at least one reported cyclosporiasis death computed at ~4-12% depending on assumed CFR upper bound.
4. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC reported 4,173 lab-confirmed domestic cyclosporiasis cases since May 1, 2026, plus over 7,400 additional unconfirmed cases under investigation.
5. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Comparable 2025 period (May 1–July 16) had only 249 nationally reported cases, versus 1,645 by mid-July 2026 — roughly a 6-7x increase.
6. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC/AP describe a Taco Bell–linked outbreak from Taylor Farms shredded iceberg lettuce across nine states with 1,947 cases — the nation's largest known cyclosporiasis outbreak.
7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Case-patients in the 2026 outbreak range in age from 2 to 95 years (median 44), and 141 of 1,645 (9%) were hospitalized.
8. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC states it is publishing weekly cyclosporiasis surveillance data updates in 2026 due to the multistate case increase, with pages updated July 14 and ~July 25-26.
9. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The CDC surveillance page explicitly reports hospitalization and death counts ('no deaths have been reported'), confirming a deaths field exists in 2026 reporting.
10. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 92 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] As of the latest CDC update (~July 25-26, 2026), no deaths have been reported among 2026 cyclosporiasis cases.
11. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] AP/PBS reporting on the Taco Bell outbreak confirms at least 98 hospitalizations with no deaths reported as of July 24, 2026.
12. [sq4 | claude_news | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] News searches surfaced no report of any cyclosporiasis-attributed death in 2025 or 2026 in the United States.

## Cross-Market Signals

### No signal found

Information gaps:
  - No documented historical CFR for cyclosporiasis in US outbreaks (case-fatality base rate absent)
  - Unclear whether CDC would attribute/report a death in an immunocompromised co-morbid patient
  - No data on outbreak trajectory/whether case counts are still climbing into August 2026
  - No prediction-market or Kalshi pricing data provided

Key uncertainties:
  - Whether a death among ~12,000 total 2026 cases gets identified and attributed before Sept 1
  - Reporting lag between a death occurring and CDC table update
  - Severity mix — whether elderly/immunocompromised patients are heavily represented
  - Whether CDC continues weekly updates through August 2026

## Required pre-forecast walkthrough

Before giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:
  (a) The time left until the question resolves.
  (b) The status quo outcome — what happens if nothing changes from today.
  (c) A brief scenario that results in NO.
  (d) A brief scenario that results in YES.

## Calibration guidance

- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition — independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.
- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.
- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid >0.97 or <0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological — overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question — move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.
- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or "very recent" claim — especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility — must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.
- **Also provide a holistic estimate** — your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.

## Output

Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:

{
  "rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) (d) above — 5-8 sentences total>",
  "sub_question_estimates": {
    "sq1": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
    "sq2": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
    "sq3": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
    "sq4": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>
  },
  "holistic_p_yes": <float in [0.01, 0.99] — your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition>,
  "what_would_change_my_mind": "<1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%>"
}

{
  "forecast": {
    "combination_logic": "weighted_average",
    "evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | DOWN | DATED] CDC historical cyclosporiasis surveillance (2011-2015 period, 2,207 cases; and annual reports through 2025) reports no deaths in domestically acquired cases.\n2. [sq1 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | DATED] Cyclosporiasis is a self-limiting diarrheal illness treatable with TMP-SMX; it is not characterized as a commonly fatal infection in immunocompetent hosts.\n3. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Laplace-succession base rate for a year with at least one reported cyclosporiasis death computed at ~4-12% depending on assumed CFR upper bound.\n4. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC reported 4,173 lab-confirmed domestic cyclosporiasis cases since May 1, 2026, plus over 7,400 additional unconfirmed cases under investigation.\n5. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Comparable 2025 period (May 1\u2013July 16) had only 249 nationally reported cases, versus 1,645 by mid-July 2026 \u2014 roughly a 6-7x increase.\n6. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC/AP describe a Taco Bell\u2013linked outbreak from Taylor Farms shredded iceberg lettuce across nine states with 1,947 cases \u2014 the nation\u0027s largest known cyclosporiasis outbreak.\n7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Case-patients in the 2026 outbreak range in age from 2 to 95 years (median 44), and 141 of 1,645 (9%) were hospitalized.\n8. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC states it is publishing weekly cyclosporiasis surveillance data updates in 2026 due to the multistate case increase, with pages updated July 14 and ~July 25-26.\n9. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The CDC surveillance page explicitly reports hospitalization and death counts (\u0027no deaths have been reported\u0027), confirming a deaths field exists in 2026 reporting.\n10. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 92 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] As of the latest CDC update (~July 25-26, 2026), no deaths have been reported among 2026 cyclosporiasis cases.\n11. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] AP/PBS reporting on the Taco Bell outbreak confirms at least 98 hospitalizations with no deaths reported as of July 24, 2026.\n12. [sq4 | claude_news | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] News searches surfaced no report of any cyclosporiasis-attributed death in 2025 or 2026 in the United States.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n  - No documented historical CFR for cyclosporiasis in US outbreaks (case-fatality base rate absent)\n  - Unclear whether CDC would attribute/report a death in an immunocompromised co-morbid patient\n  - No data on outbreak trajectory/whether case counts are still climbing into August 2026\n  - No prediction-market or Kalshi pricing data provided\n\nKey uncertainties:\n  - Whether a death among ~12,000 total 2026 cases gets identified and attributed before Sept 1\n  - Reporting lag between a death occurring and CDC table update\n  - Severity mix \u2014 whether elderly/immunocompromised patients are heavily represented\n  - Whether CDC continues weekly updates through August 2026",
    "forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates \u2014 your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.\n\n## Question\nWill any deaths from cyclosporiasis occur before September 1, 2026, according to the CDC?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nAccording to the resolution source, \"Cyclosporiasis is a gastrointestinal disease caused by the microscopic parasite Cyclospora. Cyclosporiasis is a nationally notifiable disease and is reportable in 47 states, the District of Columbia, and New York City. Even if it is not reportable in a state, it is important for healthcare providers and the public to inform local health departments about potential cases and clusters of the disease so that they can take appropriate action to prevent additional cases.\"\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"9a581ea5de8be843\", \"sheet_id\": \"137\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control\u0027s [Surveillance of Cyclosporiasis](https://www.cdc.gov/cyclosporiasis/php/surveillance/index.html) portal at any point before September 1, 2026, the number of deaths from the 2026 outbreaks of cyclosporiasis is greater than zero.\n\n## Sub-question decomposition\n- (w=0.45) Have CDC cyclosporiasis surveillance reports in any prior year (2018-2025) listed one or more deaths among domestically acquired cyclosporiasis cases?  \u2014 Historical base rate of nonzero deaths in the CDC surveillance table is the dominant driver; cyclosporiasis is rarely fa\n- (w=0.25) Will the 2026 cyclosporiasis season be unusually large (e.g., a major multistate foodborne outbreak with case counts well above the recent average) before September 1, 2026?  \u2014 A larger outbreak raises the chance of a death occurring among immunocompromised or elderly patients, though case-fatali\n- (w=0.20) Will the CDC surveillance portal actually publish and update a 2026 outbreak table with a \u0027deaths\u0027 field before September 1, 2026?  \u2014 Resolution requires the CDC page to report a death count greater than zero; reporting lags, page restructuring, or absen\n- (w=0.10) Is there any current news or CDC report (as of now) of a death linked to cyclosporiasis in 2025 or 2026?  \u2014 Direct evidence of an ongoing fatal case would sharply raise probability.\n\nCombination rule: **weighted_average**\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | DOWN | DATED] CDC historical cyclosporiasis surveillance (2011-2015 period, 2,207 cases; and annual reports through 2025) reports no deaths in domestically acquired cases.\n2. [sq1 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | DATED] Cyclosporiasis is a self-limiting diarrheal illness treatable with TMP-SMX; it is not characterized as a commonly fatal infection in immunocompetent hosts.\n3. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Laplace-succession base rate for a year with at least one reported cyclosporiasis death computed at ~4-12% depending on assumed CFR upper bound.\n4. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC reported 4,173 lab-confirmed domestic cyclosporiasis cases since May 1, 2026, plus over 7,400 additional unconfirmed cases under investigation.\n5. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Comparable 2025 period (May 1\u2013July 16) had only 249 nationally reported cases, versus 1,645 by mid-July 2026 \u2014 roughly a 6-7x increase.\n6. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC/AP describe a Taco Bell\u2013linked outbreak from Taylor Farms shredded iceberg lettuce across nine states with 1,947 cases \u2014 the nation\u0027s largest known cyclosporiasis outbreak.\n7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Case-patients in the 2026 outbreak range in age from 2 to 95 years (median 44), and 141 of 1,645 (9%) were hospitalized.\n8. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC states it is publishing weekly cyclosporiasis surveillance data updates in 2026 due to the multistate case increase, with pages updated July 14 and ~July 25-26.\n9. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The CDC surveillance page explicitly reports hospitalization and death counts (\u0027no deaths have been reported\u0027), confirming a deaths field exists in 2026 reporting.\n10. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 92 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] As of the latest CDC update (~July 25-26, 2026), no deaths have been reported among 2026 cyclosporiasis cases.\n11. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] AP/PBS reporting on the Taco Bell outbreak confirms at least 98 hospitalizations with no deaths reported as of July 24, 2026.\n12. [sq4 | claude_news | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] News searches surfaced no report of any cyclosporiasis-attributed death in 2025 or 2026 in the United States.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n  - No documented historical CFR for cyclosporiasis in US outbreaks (case-fatality base rate absent)\n  - Unclear whether CDC would attribute/report a death in an immunocompromised co-morbid patient\n  - No data on outbreak trajectory/whether case counts are still climbing into August 2026\n  - No prediction-market or Kalshi pricing data provided\n\nKey uncertainties:\n  - Whether a death among ~12,000 total 2026 cases gets identified and attributed before Sept 1\n  - Reporting lag between a death occurring and CDC table update\n  - Severity mix \u2014 whether elderly/immunocompromised patients are heavily represented\n  - Whether CDC continues weekly updates through August 2026\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:\n  (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n  (b) The status quo outcome \u2014 what happens if nothing changes from today.\n  (c) A brief scenario that results in NO.\n  (d) A brief scenario that results in YES.\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition \u2014 independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.\n- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.\n- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid \u003e0.97 or \u003c0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological \u2014 overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.\n- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question \u2014 move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.\n- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or \"very recent\" claim \u2014 especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility \u2014 must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.\n- **Also provide a holistic estimate** \u2014 your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n  \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) (b) (c) (d) above \u2014 5-8 sentences total\u003e\",\n  \"sub_question_estimates\": {\n    \"sq1\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n    \"sq2\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n    \"sq3\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n    \"sq4\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e\n  },\n  \"holistic_p_yes\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99] \u2014 your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition\u003e,\n  \"what_would_change_my_mind\": \"\u003c1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%\u003e\"\n}\n",
    "holistic_p_yes": 0.09,
    "models": [
      "opus",
      "secondary"
    ],
    "p_yes": 0.32344999999999996,
    "rationale": "(a) Assuming the present date is late July 2026, roughly five weeks remain until the September 1, 2026 deadline. (b) Status quo: CDC\u0027s weekly-updated cyclosporiasis surveillance page currently states explicitly that no deaths have been reported among the record 2026 case counts (4,173 confirmed plus ~7,400 under investigation), so if nothing changes the question resolves No. (c) NO scenario: cyclosporiasis remains a self-limiting, TMP-SMX-treatable diarrheal illness with no documented US surveillance death in at least 15 years; hospitalizations (~9%) resolve, and even if a co-morbid patient dies, CDC does not attribute it or the attribution/reporting lag pushes the table update past September 1. (d) YES scenario: the outbreak is the largest ever recorded (~12,000 cases including patients up to age 95), so a severe case in an elderly or immunocompromised patient \u2014 possibly with dehydration or a nosocomial complication \u2014 is plausible; because CDC is publishing weekly updates with an explicit deaths field, such a death could appear in the table within weeks. (e) On balance, the unprecedented scale meaningfully raises the tail risk above the historical zero base rate, but the absence of a single reported death across thousands of cases already accrued this season, combined with the short remaining window and typical attribution conservatism, keeps this well below even odds. Note that a naive weighted average of my sub-question answers would overstate the answer because sq2 and sq3 are enabling conditions, not near-sufficient causes; my holistic figure reflects the conjunctive reality.",
    "sub_question_estimates": {
      "sq1": 0.06,
      "sq2": 0.96,
      "sq3": 0.95,
      "sq4": 0.05
    },
    "what_would_change_my_mind": "A CDC update or credible news report of even one death (or a death \u0027under investigation\u0027) among 2026 cyclosporiasis patients would push me above 70%; continued weekly CDC updates through August showing declining case counts and still zero deaths would push me below 5%."
  },
  "plan": {
    "combination_logic": "weighted_average",
    "domain": "health",
    "n_sub_qs": 4,
    "n_tools": 4,
    "reasoning_approach": "Anchor on the historical base rate of zero reported deaths in CDC cyclosporiasis surveillance tables, then adjust modestly upward for outbreak size and downward for reporting/publication frictions, blending the sub-question probabilities as a weighted average.",
    "sub_questions": [
      {
        "id": "sq1",
        "question": "Have CDC cyclosporiasis surveillance reports in any prior year (2018-2025) listed one or more deaths among domestically acquired cyclosporiasis cases?",
        "rationale": "Historical base rate of nonzero deaths in the CDC surveillance table is the dominant driver; cyclosporiasis is rarely fatal and CDC annual summaries have historically reported zero deaths.",
        "weight": 0.45
      },
      {
        "id": "sq2",
        "question": "Will the 2026 cyclosporiasis season be unusually large (e.g., a major multistate foodborne outbreak with case counts well above the recent average) before September 1, 2026?",
        "rationale": "A larger outbreak raises the chance of a death occurring among immunocompromised or elderly patients, though case-fatality remains near zero.",
        "weight": 0.25
      },
      {
        "id": "sq3",
        "question": "Will the CDC surveillance portal actually publish and update a 2026 outbreak table with a \u0027deaths\u0027 field before September 1, 2026?",
        "rationale": "Resolution requires the CDC page to report a death count greater than zero; reporting lags, page restructuring, or absent death fields make YES effectively impossible even if a death occurred.",
        "weight": 0.2
      },
      {
        "id": "sq4",
        "question": "Is there any current news or CDC report (as of now) of a death linked to cyclosporiasis in 2025 or 2026?",
        "rationale": "Direct evidence of an ongoing fatal case would sharply raise probability.",
        "weight": 0.1
      }
    ],
    "tool_requests": [
      {
        "parameters": {
          "queries": [
            "CDC cyclosporiasis surveillance 2025 cases hospitalizations deaths",
            "cyclosporiasis outbreak 2026 CDC",
            "Cyclospora death outbreak United States"
          ]
        },
        "target_sub_questions": [
          "sq1",
          "sq3",
          "sq4"
        ],
        "tool_name": "web_search"
      },
      {
        "parameters": {
          "brief": "Find the CDC Surveillance of Cyclosporiasis page content: annual domestically acquired cyclosporiasis case counts, hospitalizations, and deaths for 2018-2025; whether any deaths have ever been reported in these tables; and any 2026 outbreak data or news of cyclosporiasis-related deaths.",
          "max_searches": 4,
          "question_title": "Will any deaths from cyclosporiasis occur before September 1, 2026, according to the CDC?"
        },
        "target_sub_questions": [
          "sq1",
          "sq2",
          "sq3",
          "sq4"
        ],
        "tool_name": "claude_news"
      },
      {
        "parameters": {
          "queries": [
            "Cyclosporiasis",
            "Cyclospora cayetanensis",
            "2018 cyclosporiasis outbreaks"
          ]
        },
        "target_sub_questions": [
          "sq1",
          "sq2"
        ],
        "tool_name": "wikipedia_lookup"
      },
      {
        "parameters": {
          "code": "import numpy as np\n# Historical: CDC annual domestically acquired cyclosporiasis cases ~1000-2500/yr, deaths reported = 0 in surveillance tables\nyears_with_zero_deaths = 8\nyears_with_deaths = 0\n# Laplace rule of succession\np = (years_with_deaths + 1) / (years_with_zero_deaths + 2)\nprint(\u0027Laplace estimate of a death-year:\u0027, p)\n# Adjust for partial-year window (Jan 1 - Aug 31 covers most of season, ~0.8) and reporting-lag discount (~0.5)\nprint(\u0027Adjusted:\u0027, p*0.8*0.5)\n# Alternative: case fatality approach\ncases = 2500\ncfr_upper = 1/20000\nprint(\u0027P(\u003e=1 death | CFR upper bound):\u0027, 1-(1-cfr_upper)**cases)\n",
          "description": "Base-rate estimate for nonzero reported cyclosporiasis deaths using Laplace succession and CFR-based Poisson reasoning."
        },
        "target_sub_questions": [
          "sq1",
          "sq2"
        ],
        "tool_name": "code_execution"
      }
    ]
  },
  "question": {
    "close_time": "2026-07-27T06:00:00Z",
    "description": "## Description\nAccording to the resolution source, \"Cyclosporiasis is a gastrointestinal disease caused by the microscopic parasite Cyclospora. Cyclosporiasis is a nationally notifiable disease and is reportable in 47 states, the District of Columbia, and New York City. Even if it is not reportable in a state, it is important for healthcare providers and the public to inform local health departments about potential cases and clusters of the disease so that they can take appropriate action to prevent additional cases.\"\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"9a581ea5de8be843\", \"sheet_id\": \"137\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control\u0027s [Surveillance of Cyclosporiasis](https://www.cdc.gov/cyclosporiasis/php/surveillance/index.html) portal at any point before September 1, 2026, the number of deaths from the 2026 outbreaks of cyclosporiasis is greater than zero.",
    "question_type": "binary",
    "title": "Will any deaths from cyclosporiasis occur before September 1, 2026, according to the CDC?"
  },
  "research": {
    "cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found",
    "errors": [],
    "has_cross_market": true,
    "n_errors": 0,
    "n_tools": 4,
    "tools": [
      {
        "elapsed_s": 29.09,
        "error": null,
        "success": true,
        "summary": "0 results",
        "tool_name": "web_search"
      },
      {
        "elapsed_s": 19.48,
        "error": null,
        "success": true,
        "summary": "9 citations",
        "tool_name": "claude_news"
      },
      {
        "elapsed_s": 1.3,
        "error": null,
        "success": true,
        "summary": "3 pages",
        "tool_name": "wikipedia_lookup"
      },
      {
        "elapsed_s": 0.0,
        "error": null,
        "success": true,
        "summary": "Base-rate estimate for nonzero reported cyclosporiasis death",
        "tool_name": "code_execution"
      }
    ]
  },
  "synthesis": {
    "evidence": [
      {
        "claim": "CDC historical cyclosporiasis surveillance (2011-2015 period, 2,207 cases; and annual reports through 2025) reports no deaths in domestically acquired cases.",
        "credibility": 85,
        "direction": "DOWN",
        "priced_in": true,
        "recency": "DATED",
        "source": "web_search",
        "strength": "STRONG",
        "sub_question_id": "sq1"
      },
      {
        "claim": "Cyclosporiasis is a self-limiting diarrheal illness treatable with TMP-SMX; it is not characterized as a commonly fatal infection in immunocompetent hosts.",
        "credibility": 70,
        "direction": "DOWN",
        "priced_in": true,
        "recency": "DATED",
        "source": "wikipedia_lookup",
        "strength": "MODERATE",
        "sub_question_id": "sq1"
      },
      {
        "claim": "Laplace-succession base rate for a year with at least one reported cyclosporiasis death computed at ~4-12% depending on assumed CFR upper bound.",
        "credibility": 35,
        "direction": "DOWN",
        "priced_in": false,
        "recency": "VERY_RECENT",
        "source": "code_execution",
        "strength": "WEAK",
        "sub_question_id": "sq1"
      },
      {
        "claim": "CDC reported 4,173 lab-confirmed domestic cyclosporiasis cases since May 1, 2026, plus over 7,400 additional unconfirmed cases under investigation.",
        "credibility": 90,
        "direction": "UP",
        "priced_in": true,
        "recency": "VERY_RECENT",
        "source": "web_search",
        "strength": "STRONG",
        "sub_question_id": "sq2"
      },
      {
        "claim": "Comparable 2025 period (May 1\u2013July 16) had only 249 nationally reported cases, versus 1,645 by mid-July 2026 \u2014 roughly a 6-7x increase.",
        "credibility": 88,
        "direction": "UP",
        "priced_in": true,
        "recency": "VERY_RECENT",
        "source": "web_search",
        "strength": "STRONG",
        "sub_question_id": "sq2"
      },
      {
        "claim": "CDC/AP describe a Taco Bell\u2013linked outbreak from Taylor Farms shredded iceberg lettuce across nine states with 1,947 cases \u2014 the nation\u0027s largest known cyclosporiasis outbreak.",
        "credibility": 90,
        "direction": "UP",
        "priced_in": true,
        "recency": "VERY_RECENT",
        "source": "web_search",
        "strength": "STRONG",
        "sub_question_id": "sq2"
      },
      {
        "claim": "Case-patients in the 2026 outbreak range in age from 2 to 95 years (median 44), and 141 of 1,645 (9%) were hospitalized.",
        "credibility": 85,
        "direction": "UP",
        "priced_in": false,
        "recency": "VERY_RECENT",
        "source": "web_search",
        "strength": "MODERATE",
        "sub_question_id": "sq2"
      },
      {
        "claim": "CDC states it is publishing weekly cyclosporiasis surveillance data updates in 2026 due to the multistate case increase, with pages updated July 14 and ~July 25-26.",
        "credibility": 90,
        "direction": "UP",
        "priced_in": true,
        "recency": "VERY_RECENT",
        "source": "web_search",
        "strength": "STRONG",
        "sub_question_id": "sq3"
      },
      {
        "claim": "The CDC surveillance page explicitly reports hospitalization and death counts (\u0027no deaths have been reported\u0027), confirming a deaths field exists in 2026 reporting.",
        "credibility": 90,
        "direction": "UP",
        "priced_in": true,
        "recency": "VERY_RECENT",
        "source": "web_search",
        "strength": "STRONG",
        "sub_question_id": "sq3"
      },
      {
        "claim": "As of the latest CDC update (~July 25-26, 2026), no deaths have been reported among 2026 cyclosporiasis cases.",
        "credibility": 92,
        "direction": "DOWN",
        "priced_in": true,
        "recency": "VERY_RECENT",
        "source": "web_search",
        "strength": "STRONG",
        "sub_question_id": "sq4"
      },
      {
        "claim": "AP/PBS reporting on the Taco Bell outbreak confirms at least 98 hospitalizations with no deaths reported as of July 24, 2026.",
        "credibility": 88,
        "direction": "DOWN",
        "priced_in": true,
        "recency": "VERY_RECENT",
        "source": "web_search",
        "strength": "STRONG",
        "sub_question_id": "sq4"
      },
      {
        "claim": "News searches surfaced no report of any cyclosporiasis-attributed death in 2025 or 2026 in the United States.",
        "credibility": 60,
        "direction": "NEUTRAL",
        "priced_in": true,
        "recency": "VERY_RECENT",
        "source": "claude_news",
        "strength": "MODERATE",
        "sub_question_id": "sq4"
      }
    ],
    "information_gaps": [
      "No documented historical CFR for cyclosporiasis in US outbreaks (case-fatality base rate absent)",
      "Unclear whether CDC would attribute/report a death in an immunocompromised co-morbid patient",
      "No data on outbreak trajectory/whether case counts are still climbing into August 2026",
      "No prediction-market or Kalshi pricing data provided"
    ],
    "key_uncertainties": [
      "Whether a death among ~12,000 total 2026 cases gets identified and attributed before Sept 1",
      "Reporting lag between a death occurring and CDC table update",
      "Severity mix \u2014 whether elderly/immunocompromised patients are heavily represented",
      "Whether CDC continues weekly updates through August 2026"
    ],
    "n_evidence": 12
  },
  "timings": {
    "forecast": 44.58,
    "plan": 20.68,
    "research": 29.09,
    "synthesis": 27.41
  }
}