Establish the near-certain floor of 398 and then estimate the size distribution of additions over the ~6.5-week window, using expedition activity news as the driver and a Monte Carlo to convert additions into bin probabilities; sub-question probabilities are correlated (all depend on expedition activity) so they are blended via weighted average into the most likely bin.
## Cross-Market Signals ### No signal found
1. [sq2 | question_description | STRONG cred 95 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] On July 15, 2026 the OCEARCH tracker displayed 398 sharks, establishing a near-certain floor for the resolution count. 2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | DATED] OCEARCH's known expedition pattern is seasonal: Nova Scotia trips in late summer/fall and 'Expedition Southbound' off the Southeast US in late November–December. 3. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No 2026 OCEARCH expedition specifically scheduled for mid-July through August was identified in search results. 4. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] OCEARCH is running a 'Meet a Shark Sweepstakes' from June 1 to Aug 31, 2026 offering a trip on an expedition to tag a white shark. 5. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] OCEARCH blog activity continued through mid-2026 (posts dated June 3, June 24, June 30, July 10, 2026), indicating an active operating organization. 6. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Early-2026 OCEARCH news focused on recovering five PSAT tags from previously tagged white sharks rather than on new taggings. 7. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Over four years of Nova Scotia expeditions OCEARCH tagged 36 animals total, roughly 9 animals per year across all expeditions in that region. 8. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 55 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Media in May 2026 described the tracker as holding 'over 400 ocean animals' with ~250 great whites, consistent with slow incremental growth rather than large jumps. 9. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] No evidence was found of any planned OCEARCH tracker redesign, database purge, or re-categorization that would reduce the displayed shark count. 10. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 50 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] News search for late March–July 2026 returned no OCEARCH shark-tagging expedition coverage; results were unrelated shark-attack and science stories. 11. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 55 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] OCEARCH tags mainly adult sharks and avoids re-tagging previously tagged individuals, limiting the number of new animals added per trip. ## Cross-Market Signals ### No signal found Information gaps: - No historical month-by-month time series of the tracker's shark count to derive a ~6.5-week growth base rate - No confirmed OCEARCH 2026 expedition calendar for July–August - Unknown lag between tagging and a new shark appearing on the public tracker - Unclear whether the 398 figure includes retired/inactive tags that could be pruned Key uncertainties: - Whether any expedition occurs and lands new tags before Aug 31, 2026 - Size of additions if an expedition occurs (typically low single digits) - Possibility of tracker/database changes altering the count - Whether Metaculus's filtered 'Sharks' count matches the cited 398 baseline
You are an elite superforecaster. Estimate the probability of each option for this Metaculus multiple-choice question.
## Question
How many sharks will be tracked by Ocearch on August 31, 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
According to the [resolution source](https://www.ocearch.org/mission/who-is-ocearch/), "OCEARCH is powered by a dedicated team of experts across science, education, media, and operations—working together in real time to drive a professional, mission-focused organization that delivers impact both on the ocean and around the world."
`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "23d831e40a2086b4", "sheet_id": "133"}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as the number of sharks tracked by the [Ocearch tracker](https://www.ocearch.org/tracker/) as displayed when accessed by Metaculus on or after August 31, 2026.
## Fine Print
INSTRUCTIONS: At the resolution source, click the icon for Animal Groups on the right side of the screen. Then select Sharks to be displayed. The question resolves based on the number of animals shown. As of July 15, 2026, the tracker said, "SHOWING 398 ANIMALS."
## Options
- Under 398
- 398
- 399
- Greater than 399
## Sub-question decomposition (planner)
- (w=0.35) Will OCEARCH conduct (or have just completed) at least one shark-tagging expedition between mid-July 2026 and August 31, 2026 whose newly tagged sharks are added to the public tracker before resolution? — Count increases are driven almost entirely by expedition tagging events; late-summer Northwest Atlantic white shark expe
- (w=0.35) Will the number of sharks shown on the OCEARCH tracker on/after August 31, 2026 be strictly greater than 398 (the July 15, 2026 baseline)? — Directly tests whether any net increase occurs in the ~6.5-week window; the count is monotonic-ish but often static for
- (w=0.20) Will the increase from the 398 baseline be small (i.e., +0 to +4 sharks) rather than a large jump of 5 or more? — Determines which bin of the multiple-choice answer set is most likely; historical monthly growth is typically low single
- (w=0.10) Will the displayed shark count avoid any decrease or platform/database change (e.g., re-categorization, tracker redesign, removal of retired tags) that lowers the number below 398? — Small tail risk that counts drop due to data cleanup, category changes, or tracker maintenance, which would push resolut
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq2 | question_description | STRONG cred 95 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] On July 15, 2026 the OCEARCH tracker displayed 398 sharks, establishing a near-certain floor for the resolution count.
2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | DATED] OCEARCH's known expedition pattern is seasonal: Nova Scotia trips in late summer/fall and 'Expedition Southbound' off the Southeast US in late November–December.
3. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No 2026 OCEARCH expedition specifically scheduled for mid-July through August was identified in search results.
4. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] OCEARCH is running a 'Meet a Shark Sweepstakes' from June 1 to Aug 31, 2026 offering a trip on an expedition to tag a white shark.
5. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] OCEARCH blog activity continued through mid-2026 (posts dated June 3, June 24, June 30, July 10, 2026), indicating an active operating organization.
6. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Early-2026 OCEARCH news focused on recovering five PSAT tags from previously tagged white sharks rather than on new taggings.
7. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Over four years of Nova Scotia expeditions OCEARCH tagged 36 animals total, roughly 9 animals per year across all expeditions in that region.
8. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 55 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Media in May 2026 described the tracker as holding 'over 400 ocean animals' with ~250 great whites, consistent with slow incremental growth rather than large jumps.
9. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] No evidence was found of any planned OCEARCH tracker redesign, database purge, or re-categorization that would reduce the displayed shark count.
10. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 50 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] News search for late March–July 2026 returned no OCEARCH shark-tagging expedition coverage; results were unrelated shark-attack and science stories.
11. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 55 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] OCEARCH tags mainly adult sharks and avoids re-tagging previously tagged individuals, limiting the number of new animals added per trip.
## Cross-Market Signals
### No signal found
Information gaps:
- No historical month-by-month time series of the tracker's shark count to derive a ~6.5-week growth base rate
- No confirmed OCEARCH 2026 expedition calendar for July–August
- Unknown lag between tagging and a new shark appearing on the public tracker
- Unclear whether the 398 figure includes retired/inactive tags that could be pruned
Key uncertainties:
- Whether any expedition occurs and lands new tags before Aug 31, 2026
- Size of additions if an expedition occurs (typically low single digits)
- Possibility of tracker/database changes altering the count
- Whether Metaculus's filtered 'Sharks' count matches the cited 398 baseline
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving probabilities, address these explicitly in your rationale:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The status quo outcome — the option most likely if nothing changes from today.
(c) An outcome that would be SURPRISING but plausible.
## Calibration guidance
- **Status quo anchoring.** Good forecasters put extra weight on the status quo option because the world changes slowly most of the time.
- **Leave moderate probability on most options.** Good forecasters don't drop options to ~0% — leave ≥3-5% on every option to account for unexpected outcomes, unless you have strong specific evidence ruling them out.
- Avoid uniform-distribution laziness — most options are not equally likely.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) for these options appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong prior and stay close to them absent specific contrary evidence.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) above, then explain your distribution — 4-7 sentences total>",
"probabilities": {
"Under 398": <prob>,
"398": <prob>,
"399": <prob>,
"Greater than 399": <prob>
}
}
Probabilities MUST sum to ~1.0 (renormalization is applied; close enough is fine).
{
"forecast": {
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq2 | question_description | STRONG cred 95 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] On July 15, 2026 the OCEARCH tracker displayed 398 sharks, establishing a near-certain floor for the resolution count.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | DATED] OCEARCH\u0027s known expedition pattern is seasonal: Nova Scotia trips in late summer/fall and \u0027Expedition Southbound\u0027 off the Southeast US in late November\u2013December.\n3. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No 2026 OCEARCH expedition specifically scheduled for mid-July through August was identified in search results.\n4. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] OCEARCH is running a \u0027Meet a Shark Sweepstakes\u0027 from June 1 to Aug 31, 2026 offering a trip on an expedition to tag a white shark.\n5. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] OCEARCH blog activity continued through mid-2026 (posts dated June 3, June 24, June 30, July 10, 2026), indicating an active operating organization.\n6. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Early-2026 OCEARCH news focused on recovering five PSAT tags from previously tagged white sharks rather than on new taggings.\n7. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Over four years of Nova Scotia expeditions OCEARCH tagged 36 animals total, roughly 9 animals per year across all expeditions in that region.\n8. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 55 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Media in May 2026 described the tracker as holding \u0027over 400 ocean animals\u0027 with ~250 great whites, consistent with slow incremental growth rather than large jumps.\n9. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] No evidence was found of any planned OCEARCH tracker redesign, database purge, or re-categorization that would reduce the displayed shark count.\n10. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 50 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] News search for late March\u2013July 2026 returned no OCEARCH shark-tagging expedition coverage; results were unrelated shark-attack and science stories.\n11. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 55 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] OCEARCH tags mainly adult sharks and avoids re-tagging previously tagged individuals, limiting the number of new animals added per trip.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No historical month-by-month time series of the tracker\u0027s shark count to derive a ~6.5-week growth base rate\n - No confirmed OCEARCH 2026 expedition calendar for July\u2013August\n - Unknown lag between tagging and a new shark appearing on the public tracker\n - Unclear whether the 398 figure includes retired/inactive tags that could be pruned\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether any expedition occurs and lands new tags before Aug 31, 2026\n - Size of additions if an expedition occurs (typically low single digits)\n - Possibility of tracker/database changes altering the count\n - Whether Metaculus\u0027s filtered \u0027Sharks\u0027 count matches the cited 398 baseline",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Estimate the probability of each option for this Metaculus multiple-choice question.\n\n## Question\nHow many sharks will be tracked by Ocearch on August 31, 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nAccording to the [resolution source](https://www.ocearch.org/mission/who-is-ocearch/), \"OCEARCH is powered by a dedicated team of experts across science, education, media, and operations\u2014working together in real time to drive a professional, mission-focused organization that delivers impact both on the ocean and around the world.\"\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"23d831e40a2086b4\", \"sheet_id\": \"133\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the number of sharks tracked by the [Ocearch tracker](https://www.ocearch.org/tracker/) as displayed when accessed by Metaculus on or after August 31, 2026.\n\n## Fine Print\nINSTRUCTIONS: At the resolution source, click the icon for Animal Groups on the right side of the screen. Then select Sharks to be displayed. The question resolves based on the number of animals shown. As of July 15, 2026, the tracker said, \"SHOWING 398 ANIMALS.\"\n\n## Options\n - Under 398\n - 398\n - 399\n - Greater than 399\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n- (w=0.35) Will OCEARCH conduct (or have just completed) at least one shark-tagging expedition between mid-July 2026 and August 31, 2026 whose newly tagged sharks are added to the public tracker before resolution? \u2014 Count increases are driven almost entirely by expedition tagging events; late-summer Northwest Atlantic white shark expe\n- (w=0.35) Will the number of sharks shown on the OCEARCH tracker on/after August 31, 2026 be strictly greater than 398 (the July 15, 2026 baseline)? \u2014 Directly tests whether any net increase occurs in the ~6.5-week window; the count is monotonic-ish but often static for \n- (w=0.20) Will the increase from the 398 baseline be small (i.e., +0 to +4 sharks) rather than a large jump of 5 or more? \u2014 Determines which bin of the multiple-choice answer set is most likely; historical monthly growth is typically low single\n- (w=0.10) Will the displayed shark count avoid any decrease or platform/database change (e.g., re-categorization, tracker redesign, removal of retired tags) that lowers the number below 398? \u2014 Small tail risk that counts drop due to data cleanup, category changes, or tracker maintenance, which would push resolut\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq2 | question_description | STRONG cred 95 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] On July 15, 2026 the OCEARCH tracker displayed 398 sharks, establishing a near-certain floor for the resolution count.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | DATED] OCEARCH\u0027s known expedition pattern is seasonal: Nova Scotia trips in late summer/fall and \u0027Expedition Southbound\u0027 off the Southeast US in late November\u2013December.\n3. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No 2026 OCEARCH expedition specifically scheduled for mid-July through August was identified in search results.\n4. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] OCEARCH is running a \u0027Meet a Shark Sweepstakes\u0027 from June 1 to Aug 31, 2026 offering a trip on an expedition to tag a white shark.\n5. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] OCEARCH blog activity continued through mid-2026 (posts dated June 3, June 24, June 30, July 10, 2026), indicating an active operating organization.\n6. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Early-2026 OCEARCH news focused on recovering five PSAT tags from previously tagged white sharks rather than on new taggings.\n7. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Over four years of Nova Scotia expeditions OCEARCH tagged 36 animals total, roughly 9 animals per year across all expeditions in that region.\n8. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 55 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Media in May 2026 described the tracker as holding \u0027over 400 ocean animals\u0027 with ~250 great whites, consistent with slow incremental growth rather than large jumps.\n9. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] No evidence was found of any planned OCEARCH tracker redesign, database purge, or re-categorization that would reduce the displayed shark count.\n10. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 50 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] News search for late March\u2013July 2026 returned no OCEARCH shark-tagging expedition coverage; results were unrelated shark-attack and science stories.\n11. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 55 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] OCEARCH tags mainly adult sharks and avoids re-tagging previously tagged individuals, limiting the number of new animals added per trip.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No historical month-by-month time series of the tracker\u0027s shark count to derive a ~6.5-week growth base rate\n - No confirmed OCEARCH 2026 expedition calendar for July\u2013August\n - Unknown lag between tagging and a new shark appearing on the public tracker\n - Unclear whether the 398 figure includes retired/inactive tags that could be pruned\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether any expedition occurs and lands new tags before Aug 31, 2026\n - Size of additions if an expedition occurs (typically low single digits)\n - Possibility of tracker/database changes altering the count\n - Whether Metaculus\u0027s filtered \u0027Sharks\u0027 count matches the cited 398 baseline\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving probabilities, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The status quo outcome \u2014 the option most likely if nothing changes from today.\n (c) An outcome that would be SURPRISING but plausible.\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Status quo anchoring.** Good forecasters put extra weight on the status quo option because the world changes slowly most of the time.\n- **Leave moderate probability on most options.** Good forecasters don\u0027t drop options to ~0% \u2014 leave \u22653-5% on every option to account for unexpected outcomes, unless you have strong specific evidence ruling them out.\n- Avoid uniform-distribution laziness \u2014 most options are not equally likely.\n- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) for these options appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong prior and stay close to them absent specific contrary evidence.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) (b) (c) above, then explain your distribution \u2014 4-7 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"probabilities\": {\n \"Under 398\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"398\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"399\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Greater than 399\": \u003cprob\u003e\n }\n}\n\nProbabilities MUST sum to ~1.0 (renormalization is applied; close enough is fine).\n",
"models": [
"opus"
],
"probabilities": {
"398": 0.56,
"399": 0.13,
"Greater than 399": 0.25,
"Under 398": 0.06
},
"rationale": "(a) About 6.5 weeks remain between the July 15, 2026 baseline of 398 sharks and the Aug 31, 2026 resolution date. (b) Status quo is 398: no OCEARCH expedition was identified for mid-July through August 2026, their known tagging season is late summer/fall Nova Scotia (typically September+) and late-November \u0027Expedition Southbound\u0027, and annual additions are only ~9-15 animals, so a static count over a ~6-week gap is the single most likely outcome. (c) A surprising but plausible outcome would be a count below 398 from a database cleanup, re-categorization of species groups, or a tracker redesign \u2014 no evidence supports this, so it stays a small tail; also somewhat surprising would be a large jump (5+) requiring an unannounced August expedition with multiple tags posted promptly. Because additions arrive in clusters rather than one at a time, conditional on any increase the mass is spread across +1 and +2 or more, making \u0027Greater than 399\u0027 more likely than exactly 399. Slight upward pressure comes from an active organization (frequent blog posts, ongoing sweepstakes for a white-shark tagging trip) and the possibility of an early-season northwest Atlantic trip landing a few tags before Aug 31, plus occasional retroactive additions of previously tagged animals. I therefore concentrate ~55% on 398, with roughly one-third of probability on an increase and a small tail below 398.",
"top_option": "398"
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "science",
"n_sub_qs": 4,
"n_tools": 4,
"reasoning_approach": "Establish the near-certain floor of 398 and then estimate the size distribution of additions over the ~6.5-week window, using expedition activity news as the driver and a Monte Carlo to convert additions into bin probabilities; sub-question probabilities are correlated (all depend on expedition activity) so they are blended via weighted average into the most likely bin.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will OCEARCH conduct (or have just completed) at least one shark-tagging expedition between mid-July 2026 and August 31, 2026 whose newly tagged sharks are added to the public tracker before resolution?",
"rationale": "Count increases are driven almost entirely by expedition tagging events; late-summer Northwest Atlantic white shark expeditions are the main driver of additions in Aug/Sep.",
"weight": 0.35
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will the number of sharks shown on the OCEARCH tracker on/after August 31, 2026 be strictly greater than 398 (the July 15, 2026 baseline)?",
"rationale": "Directly tests whether any net increase occurs in the ~6.5-week window; the count is monotonic-ish but often static for months.",
"weight": 0.35
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will the increase from the 398 baseline be small (i.e., +0 to +4 sharks) rather than a large jump of 5 or more?",
"rationale": "Determines which bin of the multiple-choice answer set is most likely; historical monthly growth is typically low single digits.",
"weight": 0.2
},
{
"id": "sq4",
"question": "Will the displayed shark count avoid any decrease or platform/database change (e.g., re-categorization, tracker redesign, removal of retired tags) that lowers the number below 398?",
"rationale": "Small tail risk that counts drop due to data cleanup, category changes, or tracker maintenance, which would push resolution to a lower bin.",
"weight": 0.1
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"OCEARCH tracker showing animals sharks count 2026",
"OCEARCH expedition 2026 schedule white shark tagging",
"OCEARCH newly tagged shark August 2026"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find the current number of sharks displayed on the OCEARCH tracker (ocearch.org/tracker, Animal Groups -\u003e Sharks filter) in mid-to-late 2026, plus OCEARCH\u0027s 2026 expedition schedule (especially Northwest Atlantic white shark expeditions in July-September 2026), names of sharks tagged in 2026, and any historical data points on how the total \u0027SHOWING N ANIMALS\u0027 shark count has changed over 2024-2026.",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "How many sharks will be tracked by Ocearch on August 31, 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_days": 120,
"queries": [
"OCEARCH tagged shark expedition",
"OCEARCH white shark tracker new shark named",
"OCEARCH research expedition Nova Scotia Cape Cod shark tagging 2026"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2"
],
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\nrng=np.random.default_rng(0)\n# Model: baseline 398 sharks on Jul 15 2026; horizon ~47 days to Aug 31 2026.\n# Historical OCEARCH shark additions: bursty, expedition-driven. Assume expedition occurs with prob p_exp\n# in window; if it occurs it adds Poisson(lam_exp) sharks; plus background trickle Poisson(lam_bg).\nN=200000\nres=[]\nfor p_exp,lam_exp,lam_bg in [(0.5,4.0,0.6),(0.65,5.0,0.8),(0.35,3.0,0.4)]:\n exp=rng.random(N)\u003cp_exp\n adds=rng.poisson(lam_exp,N)*exp+rng.poisson(lam_bg,N)\n # small chance of downward revision\n down=(rng.random(N)\u003c0.04)*rng.integers(1,6,N)\n tot=398+adds-down\n res.append(tot)\nfor scen,tot in zip([\u0027mid\u0027,\u0027high\u0027,\u0027low\u0027],res):\n print(scen,\u0027mean\u0027,tot.mean().round(2))\n for lo,hi in [(-100,397),(398,398),(399,400),(401,403),(404,408),(409,415),(416,1000)]:\n print(\u0027 \u0027,lo,\u0027-\u0027,hi,round(float(((tot\u003e=lo)\u0026(tot\u003c=hi)).mean()),3))\n print(\u0027 P(\u003e398)\u0027,round(float((tot\u003e398).mean()),3),\u0027P(+0..+4)\u0027,round(float(((tot\u003e=398)\u0026(tot\u003c=402)).mean()),3),\u0027P(\u003e=403)\u0027,round(float((tot\u003e=403).mean()),3))\n",
"description": "Monte Carlo of OCEARCH shark count on Aug 31, 2026 from 398 baseline under expedition-driven additions, to get bin probabilities and P(increase)."
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-07-26T15:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nAccording to the [resolution source](https://www.ocearch.org/mission/who-is-ocearch/), \"OCEARCH is powered by a dedicated team of experts across science, education, media, and operations\u2014working together in real time to drive a professional, mission-focused organization that delivers impact both on the ocean and around the world.\"\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"23d831e40a2086b4\", \"sheet_id\": \"133\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the number of sharks tracked by the [Ocearch tracker](https://www.ocearch.org/tracker/) as displayed when accessed by Metaculus on or after August 31, 2026.\n\n## Fine Print\nINSTRUCTIONS: At the resolution source, click the icon for Animal Groups on the right side of the screen. Then select Sharks to be displayed. The question resolves based on the number of animals shown. As of July 15, 2026, the tracker said, \"SHOWING 398 ANIMALS.\"",
"options": [
"Under 398",
"398",
"399",
"Greater than 399"
],
"question_type": "multiple_choice",
"title": "How many sharks will be tracked by Ocearch on August 31, 2026?"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 4,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 27.84,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "0 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 34.38,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "8 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.74,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "17 articles",
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.3,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Monte Carlo of OCEARCH shark count on Aug 31, 2026 from 398 ",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "On July 15, 2026 the OCEARCH tracker displayed 398 sharks, establishing a near-certain floor for the resolution count.",
"credibility": 95,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "question_description",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "OCEARCH\u0027s known expedition pattern is seasonal: Nova Scotia trips in late summer/fall and \u0027Expedition Southbound\u0027 off the Southeast US in late November\u2013December.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "No 2026 OCEARCH expedition specifically scheduled for mid-July through August was identified in search results.",
"credibility": 45,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "OCEARCH is running a \u0027Meet a Shark Sweepstakes\u0027 from June 1 to Aug 31, 2026 offering a trip on an expedition to tag a white shark.",
"credibility": 65,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "OCEARCH blog activity continued through mid-2026 (posts dated June 3, June 24, June 30, July 10, 2026), indicating an active operating organization.",
"credibility": 65,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Early-2026 OCEARCH news focused on recovering five PSAT tags from previously tagged white sharks rather than on new taggings.",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Over four years of Nova Scotia expeditions OCEARCH tagged 36 animals total, roughly 9 animals per year across all expeditions in that region.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Media in May 2026 described the tracker as holding \u0027over 400 ocean animals\u0027 with ~250 great whites, consistent with slow incremental growth rather than large jumps.",
"credibility": 55,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "No evidence was found of any planned OCEARCH tracker redesign, database purge, or re-categorization that would reduce the displayed shark count.",
"credibility": 55,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "News search for late March\u2013July 2026 returned no OCEARCH shark-tagging expedition coverage; results were unrelated shark-attack and science stories.",
"credibility": 50,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "OCEARCH tags mainly adult sharks and avoids re-tagging previously tagged individuals, limiting the number of new animals added per trip.",
"credibility": 55,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No historical month-by-month time series of the tracker\u0027s shark count to derive a ~6.5-week growth base rate",
"No confirmed OCEARCH 2026 expedition calendar for July\u2013August",
"Unknown lag between tagging and a new shark appearing on the public tracker",
"Unclear whether the 398 figure includes retired/inactive tags that could be pruned"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether any expedition occurs and lands new tags before Aug 31, 2026",
"Size of additions if an expedition occurs (typically low single digits)",
"Possibility of tracker/database changes altering the count",
"Whether Metaculus\u0027s filtered \u0027Sharks\u0027 count matches the cited 398 baseline"
],
"n_evidence": 11
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 16.75,
"plan": 29.36,
"research": 34.39,
"synthesis": 22.04
}
}