Treat the three endorsement targets as near mutually exclusive sufficient paths to YES and combine with an OR rule, with the dominant driver being whether a DeSantis-aligned candidate (e.g., Jay Collins) is in the race, since that makes an endorsement nearly automatic. Cross-check the OR result against a Monte Carlo decomposition and against base rates for term-limited governors endorsing successors.
## Cross-Market Signals ### No signal found
1. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] A July 18, 2026 report states DeSantis has refused to endorse frontrunner Byron Donalds and has spent months publicly and privately arguing Donalds is unfit to succeed him. 2. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Donalds enters the final weeks of the primary with Trump's endorsement, most of the state GOP establishment, a commanding fundraising lead, and little opposition on the airwaves. 3. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] The Florida GOP gubernatorial primary is described as effectively a formality for Donalds, with the main storyline being DeSantis's holdout rather than a competitive rival. 4. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The July 2026 coverage describes the race as a 'bitter succession fight' driven by DeSantis, who has taken his objections about Donalds directly to Trump. 5. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No article in the research set identifies an active DeSantis-aligned gubernatorial candidate (e.g., Jay Collins or Casey DeSantis) formally in the race. 6. [sq2 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 90 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Jay Collins has served as Florida lieutenant governor since August 2025, a DeSantis appointment often floated as a potential gubernatorial candidate. 7. [sq1 | wikipedia_lookup | STRONG cred 95 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Florida's primary elections take place August 18, 2026, and DeSantis is term-limited from seeking a third consecutive term. 8. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | RECENT] NPR analysis finds Trump now issues endorsements earlier than ever, effectively clearing primary fields for his chosen candidates. 9. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 75 | UP | VERY_RECENT] DeSantis remains 'immensely popular' among Florida Republicans, giving his endorsement substantial residual value if he chose to deploy it. 10. [sq2 | code_execution | WEAK cred 25 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] A Monte Carlo decomposition run by the researcher output P(any endorsement)=0.67, assuming P(ally runs)=0.60 and P(endorse | no ally)=0.41. 11. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | RECENT] The question's source Miami Herald headline states 'Florida GOP moves on as DeSantis withholds his endorsement in governor's race.' 12. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 55 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Most 2026 DeSantis news coverage in the research window concerns redistricting and bill signings, with no reported endorsement activity in the governor's race. ## Cross-Market Signals ### No signal found Information gaps: - Whether Jay Collins or any DeSantis ally actually filed/qualified for the primary - Base rate for term-limited governors endorsing in open successor primaries - Any DeSantis statements after July 18, 2026 hinting at a late endorsement - Florida candidate qualifying deadline and final candidate field Key uncertainties: - Whether DeSantis chooses a late anti-Donalds endorsement or stays silent - Trump pressure on DeSantis to unify behind Donalds - Possible eleventh-hour DeSantis-aligned entrant - Whether ambiguous praise would count as a 'public endorsement' for resolution
You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates — your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.
## Question
Will Florida governor Ron Desantis endorse anyone in the 2026 GOP gubernatorial primary?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
Miami Herald: [Florida GOP moves on as DeSantis withholds his endorsement in governor’s race](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article316403207.html)
`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "4e81020922d8d798", "sheet_id": "132"}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as **Yes** if Ron Desantis makes a public endorsement in the [2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Florida_gubernatorial_election#Republican_primary) before August 18, 2026, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).
## Sub-question decomposition
- (w=0.35) Will Ron DeSantis publicly endorse Byron Donalds in the 2026 Florida GOP gubernatorial primary before August 18, 2026? — Donalds is the Trump-endorsed frontrunner; DeSantis has pointedly withheld support, but a late unity endorsement (especi
- (w=0.45) Will Ron DeSantis publicly endorse a DeSantis-aligned candidate (e.g., Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, Casey DeSantis, or a similar ally) in the primary before August 18, 2026? — DeSantis has signaled he wants a successor who continues his agenda; if an ally such as Jay Collins formally enters and
- (w=0.20) Will Ron DeSantis publicly endorse any other Republican gubernatorial candidate (e.g., Paul Renner, Francis Suarez, James Fishback, or a late entrant) before August 18, 2026? — Covers residual paths where DeSantis backs a non-Donalds, non-inner-circle candidate as a protest or strategic choice; l
Combination rule: **independent_or**
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] A July 18, 2026 report states DeSantis has refused to endorse frontrunner Byron Donalds and has spent months publicly and privately arguing Donalds is unfit to succeed him.
2. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Donalds enters the final weeks of the primary with Trump's endorsement, most of the state GOP establishment, a commanding fundraising lead, and little opposition on the airwaves.
3. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] The Florida GOP gubernatorial primary is described as effectively a formality for Donalds, with the main storyline being DeSantis's holdout rather than a competitive rival.
4. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The July 2026 coverage describes the race as a 'bitter succession fight' driven by DeSantis, who has taken his objections about Donalds directly to Trump.
5. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No article in the research set identifies an active DeSantis-aligned gubernatorial candidate (e.g., Jay Collins or Casey DeSantis) formally in the race.
6. [sq2 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 90 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Jay Collins has served as Florida lieutenant governor since August 2025, a DeSantis appointment often floated as a potential gubernatorial candidate.
7. [sq1 | wikipedia_lookup | STRONG cred 95 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Florida's primary elections take place August 18, 2026, and DeSantis is term-limited from seeking a third consecutive term.
8. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | RECENT] NPR analysis finds Trump now issues endorsements earlier than ever, effectively clearing primary fields for his chosen candidates.
9. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 75 | UP | VERY_RECENT] DeSantis remains 'immensely popular' among Florida Republicans, giving his endorsement substantial residual value if he chose to deploy it.
10. [sq2 | code_execution | WEAK cred 25 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] A Monte Carlo decomposition run by the researcher output P(any endorsement)=0.67, assuming P(ally runs)=0.60 and P(endorse | no ally)=0.41.
11. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | RECENT] The question's source Miami Herald headline states 'Florida GOP moves on as DeSantis withholds his endorsement in governor's race.'
12. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 55 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Most 2026 DeSantis news coverage in the research window concerns redistricting and bill signings, with no reported endorsement activity in the governor's race.
## Cross-Market Signals
### No signal found
Information gaps:
- Whether Jay Collins or any DeSantis ally actually filed/qualified for the primary
- Base rate for term-limited governors endorsing in open successor primaries
- Any DeSantis statements after July 18, 2026 hinting at a late endorsement
- Florida candidate qualifying deadline and final candidate field
Key uncertainties:
- Whether DeSantis chooses a late anti-Donalds endorsement or stays silent
- Trump pressure on DeSantis to unify behind Donalds
- Possible eleventh-hour DeSantis-aligned entrant
- Whether ambiguous praise would count as a 'public endorsement' for resolution
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The status quo outcome — what happens if nothing changes from today.
(c) A brief scenario that results in NO.
(d) A brief scenario that results in YES.
## Calibration guidance
- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition — independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.
- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.
- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid >0.97 or <0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological — overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question — move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.
- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or "very recent" claim — especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility — must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.
- **Also provide a holistic estimate** — your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) (d) above — 5-8 sentences total>",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq2": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq3": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>
},
"holistic_p_yes": <float in [0.01, 0.99] — your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition>,
"what_would_change_my_mind": "<1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%>"
}
{
"forecast": {
"combination_logic": "independent_or",
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] A July 18, 2026 report states DeSantis has refused to endorse frontrunner Byron Donalds and has spent months publicly and privately arguing Donalds is unfit to succeed him.\n2. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Donalds enters the final weeks of the primary with Trump\u0027s endorsement, most of the state GOP establishment, a commanding fundraising lead, and little opposition on the airwaves.\n3. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] The Florida GOP gubernatorial primary is described as effectively a formality for Donalds, with the main storyline being DeSantis\u0027s holdout rather than a competitive rival.\n4. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The July 2026 coverage describes the race as a \u0027bitter succession fight\u0027 driven by DeSantis, who has taken his objections about Donalds directly to Trump.\n5. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No article in the research set identifies an active DeSantis-aligned gubernatorial candidate (e.g., Jay Collins or Casey DeSantis) formally in the race.\n6. [sq2 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 90 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Jay Collins has served as Florida lieutenant governor since August 2025, a DeSantis appointment often floated as a potential gubernatorial candidate.\n7. [sq1 | wikipedia_lookup | STRONG cred 95 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Florida\u0027s primary elections take place August 18, 2026, and DeSantis is term-limited from seeking a third consecutive term.\n8. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | RECENT] NPR analysis finds Trump now issues endorsements earlier than ever, effectively clearing primary fields for his chosen candidates.\n9. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 75 | UP | VERY_RECENT] DeSantis remains \u0027immensely popular\u0027 among Florida Republicans, giving his endorsement substantial residual value if he chose to deploy it.\n10. [sq2 | code_execution | WEAK cred 25 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] A Monte Carlo decomposition run by the researcher output P(any endorsement)=0.67, assuming P(ally runs)=0.60 and P(endorse | no ally)=0.41.\n11. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | RECENT] The question\u0027s source Miami Herald headline states \u0027Florida GOP moves on as DeSantis withholds his endorsement in governor\u0027s race.\u0027\n12. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 55 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Most 2026 DeSantis news coverage in the research window concerns redistricting and bill signings, with no reported endorsement activity in the governor\u0027s race.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n - Whether Jay Collins or any DeSantis ally actually filed/qualified for the primary\n - Base rate for term-limited governors endorsing in open successor primaries\n - Any DeSantis statements after July 18, 2026 hinting at a late endorsement\n - Florida candidate qualifying deadline and final candidate field\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether DeSantis chooses a late anti-Donalds endorsement or stays silent\n - Trump pressure on DeSantis to unify behind Donalds\n - Possible eleventh-hour DeSantis-aligned entrant\n - Whether ambiguous praise would count as a \u0027public endorsement\u0027 for resolution",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates \u2014 your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.\n\n## Question\nWill Florida governor Ron Desantis endorse anyone in the 2026 GOP gubernatorial primary?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nMiami Herald: [Florida GOP moves on as DeSantis withholds his endorsement in governor\u2019s race](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article316403207.html)\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"4e81020922d8d798\", \"sheet_id\": \"132\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if Ron Desantis makes a public endorsement in the [2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Florida_gubernatorial_election#Republican_primary) before August 18, 2026, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\n## Sub-question decomposition\n- (w=0.35) Will Ron DeSantis publicly endorse Byron Donalds in the 2026 Florida GOP gubernatorial primary before August 18, 2026? \u2014 Donalds is the Trump-endorsed frontrunner; DeSantis has pointedly withheld support, but a late unity endorsement (especi\n- (w=0.45) Will Ron DeSantis publicly endorse a DeSantis-aligned candidate (e.g., Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, Casey DeSantis, or a similar ally) in the primary before August 18, 2026? \u2014 DeSantis has signaled he wants a successor who continues his agenda; if an ally such as Jay Collins formally enters and \n- (w=0.20) Will Ron DeSantis publicly endorse any other Republican gubernatorial candidate (e.g., Paul Renner, Francis Suarez, James Fishback, or a late entrant) before August 18, 2026? \u2014 Covers residual paths where DeSantis backs a non-Donalds, non-inner-circle candidate as a protest or strategic choice; l\n\nCombination rule: **independent_or**\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] A July 18, 2026 report states DeSantis has refused to endorse frontrunner Byron Donalds and has spent months publicly and privately arguing Donalds is unfit to succeed him.\n2. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Donalds enters the final weeks of the primary with Trump\u0027s endorsement, most of the state GOP establishment, a commanding fundraising lead, and little opposition on the airwaves.\n3. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] The Florida GOP gubernatorial primary is described as effectively a formality for Donalds, with the main storyline being DeSantis\u0027s holdout rather than a competitive rival.\n4. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The July 2026 coverage describes the race as a \u0027bitter succession fight\u0027 driven by DeSantis, who has taken his objections about Donalds directly to Trump.\n5. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No article in the research set identifies an active DeSantis-aligned gubernatorial candidate (e.g., Jay Collins or Casey DeSantis) formally in the race.\n6. [sq2 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 90 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Jay Collins has served as Florida lieutenant governor since August 2025, a DeSantis appointment often floated as a potential gubernatorial candidate.\n7. [sq1 | wikipedia_lookup | STRONG cred 95 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Florida\u0027s primary elections take place August 18, 2026, and DeSantis is term-limited from seeking a third consecutive term.\n8. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | RECENT] NPR analysis finds Trump now issues endorsements earlier than ever, effectively clearing primary fields for his chosen candidates.\n9. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 75 | UP | VERY_RECENT] DeSantis remains \u0027immensely popular\u0027 among Florida Republicans, giving his endorsement substantial residual value if he chose to deploy it.\n10. [sq2 | code_execution | WEAK cred 25 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] A Monte Carlo decomposition run by the researcher output P(any endorsement)=0.67, assuming P(ally runs)=0.60 and P(endorse | no ally)=0.41.\n11. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | RECENT] The question\u0027s source Miami Herald headline states \u0027Florida GOP moves on as DeSantis withholds his endorsement in governor\u0027s race.\u0027\n12. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 55 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Most 2026 DeSantis news coverage in the research window concerns redistricting and bill signings, with no reported endorsement activity in the governor\u0027s race.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n - Whether Jay Collins or any DeSantis ally actually filed/qualified for the primary\n - Base rate for term-limited governors endorsing in open successor primaries\n - Any DeSantis statements after July 18, 2026 hinting at a late endorsement\n - Florida candidate qualifying deadline and final candidate field\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether DeSantis chooses a late anti-Donalds endorsement or stays silent\n - Trump pressure on DeSantis to unify behind Donalds\n - Possible eleventh-hour DeSantis-aligned entrant\n - Whether ambiguous praise would count as a \u0027public endorsement\u0027 for resolution\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The status quo outcome \u2014 what happens if nothing changes from today.\n (c) A brief scenario that results in NO.\n (d) A brief scenario that results in YES.\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition \u2014 independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.\n- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.\n- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid \u003e0.97 or \u003c0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological \u2014 overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.\n- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question \u2014 move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.\n- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or \"very recent\" claim \u2014 especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility \u2014 must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.\n- **Also provide a holistic estimate** \u2014 your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) (b) (c) (d) above \u2014 5-8 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"sub_question_estimates\": {\n \"sq1\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq2\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq3\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e\n },\n \"holistic_p_yes\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99] \u2014 your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition\u003e,\n \"what_would_change_my_mind\": \"\u003c1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%\u003e\"\n}\n",
"holistic_p_yes": 0.16,
"models": [
"opus"
],
"p_yes": 0.1845616,
"rationale": "(a) With the reported evidence dated July 18, 2026 and the primary/resolution date of August 18, 2026, there is roughly one month left \u2014 and Florida\u0027s candidate qualifying deadline has already passed, so the field is fixed. (b) Status quo: DeSantis continues his months-long holdout; Donalds sails to the nomination with Trump\u0027s endorsement, establishment support and a fundraising edge, and the Herald\u0027s framing is that the Florida GOP has \u0027moved on\u0027 without DeSantis. (c) NO scenario (most likely): DeSantis keeps criticizing Donalds privately/publicly without ever naming an alternative, judges that endorsing a sure loser would waste his political capital, and defers any endorsement until after the primary (general-election unity) \u2014 which falls outside the window. (d) YES scenarios: (i) Trump brokers a truce and DeSantis issues a grudging unity endorsement of Donalds in the final weeks; (ii) DeSantis, having failed to stop Donalds, throws a spite endorsement to Paul Renner or another rival to signal his displeasure; (iii) a DeSantis ally (Jay Collins) is actually already in the field contrary to the research set\u0027s absence-of-evidence, and DeSantis backs him. Path (iii) looks largely foreclosed because coverage describes the primary as a formality with no competitive DeSantis-aligned rival, though that claim is weak-credibility absence-of-evidence and deserves some residual probability. Overall, a year of demonstrated non-endorsement with only four weeks left and no attractive vehicle makes continued silence the strong favorite.",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": 0.08,
"sq2": 0.07,
"sq3": 0.09
},
"what_would_change_my_mind": "Confirmation that Jay Collins (or another DeSantis ally) actually qualified and is competing, or reporting of a DeSantis\u2013Trump rapprochement/planned joint appearance with Donalds, would push me above 50%; explicit DeSantis statements that he will not endorse before the primary would push me below 10%."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "independent_or",
"domain": "politics",
"n_sub_qs": 3,
"n_tools": 4,
"reasoning_approach": "Treat the three endorsement targets as near mutually exclusive sufficient paths to YES and combine with an OR rule, with the dominant driver being whether a DeSantis-aligned candidate (e.g., Jay Collins) is in the race, since that makes an endorsement nearly automatic. Cross-check the OR result against a Monte Carlo decomposition and against base rates for term-limited governors endorsing successors.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will Ron DeSantis publicly endorse Byron Donalds in the 2026 Florida GOP gubernatorial primary before August 18, 2026?",
"rationale": "Donalds is the Trump-endorsed frontrunner; DeSantis has pointedly withheld support, but a late unity endorsement (especially if Donalds\u0027 nomination becomes inevitable or Trump pressures him) is the single most likely path to YES.",
"weight": 0.35
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will Ron DeSantis publicly endorse a DeSantis-aligned candidate (e.g., Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, Casey DeSantis, or a similar ally) in the primary before August 18, 2026?",
"rationale": "DeSantis has signaled he wants a successor who continues his agenda; if an ally such as Jay Collins formally enters and stays in the race, an endorsement is near-automatic. Whether such a candidate actually runs is the dominant driver.",
"weight": 0.45
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will Ron DeSantis publicly endorse any other Republican gubernatorial candidate (e.g., Paul Renner, Francis Suarez, James Fishback, or a late entrant) before August 18, 2026?",
"rationale": "Covers residual paths where DeSantis backs a non-Donalds, non-inner-circle candidate as a protest or strategic choice; low probability but non-zero given his history of unexpected endorsements.",
"weight": 0.2
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Determine the current state of the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary and Ron DeSantis\u0027s endorsement posture. Specifically: (1) Has DeSantis endorsed anyone yet? (2) Is Lt. Gov. Jay Collins running, and has DeSantis signaled he would back him? (3) Did Casey DeSantis decide against running? (4) What is the state of the DeSantis-Byron Donalds/Trump relationship and any signs of reconciliation? (5) Any explicit statements from DeSantis about whether he will or will not endorse before the August 18, 2026 primary, including candidate filing deadlines.",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "Will Florida governor Ron DeSantis endorse anyone in the 2026 GOP gubernatorial primary?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"2026 Florida gubernatorial election",
"Byron Donalds",
"Jay Collins (politician)"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "wikipedia_lookup"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_days": 120,
"queries": [
"DeSantis endorsement Florida governor race 2026",
"Jay Collins run for governor Florida DeSantis backing",
"Byron Donalds DeSantis primary rivalry Florida governor"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2"
],
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\n# Simple decomposition/Monte Carlo of endorsement paths before Aug 18, 2026\nnp.random.seed(0)\nN=200000\n# P(DeSantis-aligned candidate (Collins/Casey/other ally) is an active candidate by qualifying deadline)\np_ally_runs=np.random.beta(6,4,N)\n# P(endorse | ally runs)\np_end_given_ally=np.random.beta(17,3,N)\n# P(endorse Donalds | no ally runs) - reluctant/late unity endorsement\np_end_donalds=np.random.beta(3,7,N)\n# P(endorse some other candidate | no ally runs and not Donalds)\np_other=np.random.beta(1.5,8.5,N)\nally=np.random.rand(N)\u003cp_ally_runs\nyes=np.where(ally, np.random.rand(N)\u003cp_end_given_ally,\n (np.random.rand(N)\u003cp_end_donalds)|(np.random.rand(N)\u003cp_other))\nprint(\u0027P(any endorsement):\u0027, yes.mean())\nprint(\u0027P(ally runs):\u0027, ally.mean())\n# sensitivity: if ally definitely does not run\nprint(\u0027P(endorse | no ally):\u0027, ((np.random.rand(N)\u003cp_end_donalds)|(np.random.rand(N)\u003cp_other)).mean())",
"description": "Monte Carlo decomposition of endorsement pathways to sanity-check the combined probability and its sensitivity to whether a DeSantis-aligned candidate enters the race."
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-07-26T09:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nMiami Herald: [Florida GOP moves on as DeSantis withholds his endorsement in governor\u2019s race](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article316403207.html)\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"4e81020922d8d798\", \"sheet_id\": \"132\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if Ron Desantis makes a public endorsement in the [2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Florida_gubernatorial_election#Republican_primary) before August 18, 2026, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).",
"question_type": "binary",
"title": "Will Florida governor Ron Desantis endorse anyone in the 2026 GOP gubernatorial primary?"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 4,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 26.6,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "17 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 1.43,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "3 pages",
"tool_name": "wikipedia_lookup"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.81,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "22 articles",
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
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"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Monte Carlo decomposition of endorsement pathways to sanity-",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "A July 18, 2026 report states DeSantis has refused to endorse frontrunner Byron Donalds and has spent months publicly and privately arguing Donalds is unfit to succeed him.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Donalds enters the final weeks of the primary with Trump\u0027s endorsement, most of the state GOP establishment, a commanding fundraising lead, and little opposition on the airwaves.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "The Florida GOP gubernatorial primary is described as effectively a formality for Donalds, with the main storyline being DeSantis\u0027s holdout rather than a competitive rival.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "The July 2026 coverage describes the race as a \u0027bitter succession fight\u0027 driven by DeSantis, who has taken his objections about Donalds directly to Trump.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "No article in the research set identifies an active DeSantis-aligned gubernatorial candidate (e.g., Jay Collins or Casey DeSantis) formally in the race.",
"credibility": 45,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Jay Collins has served as Florida lieutenant governor since August 2025, a DeSantis appointment often floated as a potential gubernatorial candidate.",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "wikipedia_lookup",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Florida\u0027s primary elections take place August 18, 2026, and DeSantis is term-limited from seeking a third consecutive term.",
"credibility": 95,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "wikipedia_lookup",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "NPR analysis finds Trump now issues endorsements earlier than ever, effectively clearing primary fields for his chosen candidates.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "DeSantis remains \u0027immensely popular\u0027 among Florida Republicans, giving his endorsement substantial residual value if he chose to deploy it.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "A Monte Carlo decomposition run by the researcher output P(any endorsement)=0.67, assuming P(ally runs)=0.60 and P(endorse | no ally)=0.41.",
"credibility": 25,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "The question\u0027s source Miami Herald headline states \u0027Florida GOP moves on as DeSantis withholds his endorsement in governor\u0027s race.\u0027",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Most 2026 DeSantis news coverage in the research window concerns redistricting and bill signings, with no reported endorsement activity in the governor\u0027s race.",
"credibility": 55,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"Whether Jay Collins or any DeSantis ally actually filed/qualified for the primary",
"Base rate for term-limited governors endorsing in open successor primaries",
"Any DeSantis statements after July 18, 2026 hinting at a late endorsement",
"Florida candidate qualifying deadline and final candidate field"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether DeSantis chooses a late anti-Donalds endorsement or stays silent",
"Trump pressure on DeSantis to unify behind Donalds",
"Possible eleventh-hour DeSantis-aligned entrant",
"Whether ambiguous praise would count as a \u0027public endorsement\u0027 for resolution"
],
"n_evidence": 12
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 27.74,
"plan": 47.31,
"research": 26.6,
"synthesis": 34.36
}
}