Anchor on the tracker's latest ~59% opposition value, then use the sub-questions to shift and widen that anchor: sq2 (war trajectory) sets the direction of drift while sq1/sq3/sq4 calibrate the central value and tail widths, combined as a weighted average into a final distribution centered near the baseline with slight upward skew.
## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.97, Volume: $167.5K
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Silver Bulletin tracker as of mid/late July 2026 shows 33% support and ~59% oppose the Iran War, with a net gap of roughly 25 points. 2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Tracker trajectory: opposition rose from ~48% (early March) to 52% (late March) to nearly 60% (May 18), then ~59% in mid-July — roughly 1-2 points per month, now plateaued. 3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Fox News poll (July 17-20, 1,003 RVs) found 56% oppose US military action against Iran, with 40% strongly opposed, below the 59% tracker average. 4. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 78 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Fox poll shows 76% of Republicans support the war versus 84% of Democrats opposing, implying a partisan floor limiting how far opposition can rise. 5. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CNN analysis (July 20) reports 68% say the Iran war is not worth fighting versus 28% who say it is, worse than Iraq or Afghanistan in comparable polling. 6. [sq2 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CNN (July 23) reports a renewed US bombing campaign two weeks old, with US forces taking casualties and wary allies; CIA and DIA assess the bombing is unlikely to shift Iran's position. 7. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Qatar, the key mediator, threatened to walk away from talks after Iran struck a Qatari tanker, per current and former US officials. 8. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 72 | UP | VERY_RECENT] McGurk (July 24) writes the nearly six-month conflict has evolved into a structural struggle over control of the Strait of Hormuz, with regional actors building infrastructure around it. 9. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | DOWN | DATED] A June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding produced a ceasefire that halted open war for weeks before hostilities resumed in July, showing rapid de-escalation is possible. 10. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 82 | NEUTRAL | DATED] During the June ceasefire, CBS/YouGov found only 22% thought the agreement favored the US and most said the war created more problems than it solved; opposition did not fall materially. 11. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Fox poll finds 64% of voters expect the conflict to last a year or more, up 13 points since May. 12. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] A Monte Carlo random walk from 59% over one month yields median 59.7, mean 59.6 (sd 2.4), P(>=59)=0.64, P(>63)=0.07, P(<55)=0.04. ## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.97, Volume: $167.5K Information gaps: - No direct reading of the tracker CSV after July 17-23, 2026 - No base rate for month-over-month volatility of this specific polling average - No polls conducted in August 2026 - Unknown which pollsters are in Silver's average and their house effects Key uncertainties: - Whether a new ceasefire/deal emerges before mid-August - Whether escalation (US casualties, oil/gas prices) pushes opposition past 60% - Possible ceiling effect from Republican partisan support - Tracker methodology changes or sparse polling causing flat/stale values
You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.
## Question
What percent of Americans will oppose the Iran War on August 14, 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
According to the [resolution source](https://www.natesilver.net/p/iran-war-polls-popularity-approval):
> ##### **Updated July 17, 2026**
> Hostilities between the US and Iran have resumed in earnest. On Thursday, [The New York Times reported](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/07/15/world/iran-war-trump-hormuz) that “The United States attacked Iran anew and explosions were reported in several parts of the country Wednesday night and Thursday morning, as the countries clashed for a fifth straight day over the Strait of Hormuz.” The US [also reimposed a blockade on Iranian ports](https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-hormuz-strait-war-july-15-2026-b7c592f269d822407dd6b5641602bf25) in response to Iranian attacks on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
> Polling on the Iran War remains negative. As of today, just 33 percent of Americans support the conflict, while about 59 percent oppose it. Just 28 percent of Americans said the war was worth fighting in the latest [Washington Post/Ipsos poll](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/07/16/trump-approval-stuck-30s-post-ipsos-poll-shows/). That’s less support than the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq got in WaPo’s historical polling. **-EMD*, 7/16/26***
`{"format": "metac_reveal_and_close_in_period", "info": {"post_id": 44694, "question_id": 44847}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as the opposition percentage shown at the Silver Bulletin's [Do Americans support or oppose the Iran War?](https://www.natesilver.net/p/iran-war-polls-popularity-approval) tracker for August 14, 2026, when accessed by Metaculus on or after August 15, 2026.
## Fine Print
Between the value shown in the chart and the csv file under the chart ("Get the data"), the csv file takes precedence. See the "disapprove" column in the csv.
***
This question's information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44694) which opened on 2026-07-17 20:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.
## Range
The answer must be a number in [50.95, 67.05] (units: %).
## Sub-question decomposition (planner)
- (w=0.35) Will the Silver Bulletin Iran War tracker's 'disapprove' value on August 14, 2026 be at or above its mid-July 2026 level of roughly 59%? — Anchors the central tendency: polling averages are sticky, so the key issue is whether opposition drifts up, holds, or d
- (w=0.30) Will active US-Iran hostilities (strikes, blockade, Hormuz clashes) still be ongoing or escalating during the first two weeks of August 2026? — Continued or escalating war (especially US casualties, oil/gas price spikes) tends to push opposition higher; a ceasefir
- (w=0.20) Will opposition exceed 63% (i.e., a >4-point increase from the ~59% baseline) on August 14, 2026? — Tests the upper tail — how plausible a large further deterioration is, given partisan floors on opposition (~30-35% Repu
- (w=0.15) Will opposition fall below 55% on August 14, 2026? — Tests the lower tail — a rally-around-the-flag or resolution scenario that reverses several points in one month.
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Silver Bulletin tracker as of mid/late July 2026 shows 33% support and ~59% oppose the Iran War, with a net gap of roughly 25 points.
2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Tracker trajectory: opposition rose from ~48% (early March) to 52% (late March) to nearly 60% (May 18), then ~59% in mid-July — roughly 1-2 points per month, now plateaued.
3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Fox News poll (July 17-20, 1,003 RVs) found 56% oppose US military action against Iran, with 40% strongly opposed, below the 59% tracker average.
4. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 78 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Fox poll shows 76% of Republicans support the war versus 84% of Democrats opposing, implying a partisan floor limiting how far opposition can rise.
5. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CNN analysis (July 20) reports 68% say the Iran war is not worth fighting versus 28% who say it is, worse than Iraq or Afghanistan in comparable polling.
6. [sq2 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CNN (July 23) reports a renewed US bombing campaign two weeks old, with US forces taking casualties and wary allies; CIA and DIA assess the bombing is unlikely to shift Iran's position.
7. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Qatar, the key mediator, threatened to walk away from talks after Iran struck a Qatari tanker, per current and former US officials.
8. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 72 | UP | VERY_RECENT] McGurk (July 24) writes the nearly six-month conflict has evolved into a structural struggle over control of the Strait of Hormuz, with regional actors building infrastructure around it.
9. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | DOWN | DATED] A June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding produced a ceasefire that halted open war for weeks before hostilities resumed in July, showing rapid de-escalation is possible.
10. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 82 | NEUTRAL | DATED] During the June ceasefire, CBS/YouGov found only 22% thought the agreement favored the US and most said the war created more problems than it solved; opposition did not fall materially.
11. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Fox poll finds 64% of voters expect the conflict to last a year or more, up 13 points since May.
12. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] A Monte Carlo random walk from 59% over one month yields median 59.7, mean 59.6 (sd 2.4), P(>=59)=0.64, P(>63)=0.07, P(<55)=0.04.
## Cross-Market Signals
### Polymarket
- "Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.97, Volume: $167.5K
Information gaps:
- No direct reading of the tracker CSV after July 17-23, 2026
- No base rate for month-over-month volatility of this specific polling average
- No polls conducted in August 2026
- Unknown which pollsters are in Silver's average and their house effects
Key uncertainties:
- Whether a new ceasefire/deal emerges before mid-August
- Whether escalation (US casualties, oil/gas prices) pushes opposition past 60%
- Possible ceiling effect from Republican partisan support
- Tracker methodology changes or sparse polling causing flat/stale values
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).
(c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.
(d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.
(e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).
(f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).
## Calibration guidance
- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.
- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.
- Don't pile mass at one value — if you're tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.
- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen — don't override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.
- **Relative-return / spread questions ("how much will X's return exceed Y's").** A near-zero median is usually right, but size the TAILS to the more VOLATILE leg, not to a generic 2-3pp spread. Two broad equity indices (e.g. Nasdaq-100 vs S&P 500) do stay within roughly ±2-3pp over a two-week window. But when one leg is a commodity (crude oil, gold) or a single high-beta stock (e.g. Nvidia), the two-week realized spread regularly reaches ±10pp or more — crude-vs-equity spreads have hit ±18pp. In those cases set p10/p90 to at least ±10pp (±15pp or wider for oil) while keeping the median near the status-quo spread; the 2-3pp intuition applies only to index-vs-index.
- **Heavy-tailed one-off magnitudes (opening-weekend box office, product-launch or debut numbers).** Pre-event tracking for these routinely misses by ±40% or more, and results land both far above and far below the consensus. Do NOT treat the displayed [min, max] range as the plausible range or clamp p10/p90 to its edges: the outcome can fall outside the range in either direction (recent opening weekends resolved ~7% above a displayed ceiling in one case and roughly half the displayed floor in another). Set p10/p90 wide enough that a 2x-or-0.5x surprise versus your central estimate still lands inside the interval, and when concrete current tracking disagrees with historical/franchise base rates, weight the tracking.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution — 6-10 sentences total>",
"p10": <number>,
"p25": <number>,
"p50": <number>,
"p75": <number>,
"p90": <number>
}
Percentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 <= p25 <= p50 <= p75 <= p90).
{
"forecast": {
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Silver Bulletin tracker as of mid/late July 2026 shows 33% support and ~59% oppose the Iran War, with a net gap of roughly 25 points.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Tracker trajectory: opposition rose from ~48% (early March) to 52% (late March) to nearly 60% (May 18), then ~59% in mid-July \u2014 roughly 1-2 points per month, now plateaued.\n3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Fox News poll (July 17-20, 1,003 RVs) found 56% oppose US military action against Iran, with 40% strongly opposed, below the 59% tracker average.\n4. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 78 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Fox poll shows 76% of Republicans support the war versus 84% of Democrats opposing, implying a partisan floor limiting how far opposition can rise.\n5. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CNN analysis (July 20) reports 68% say the Iran war is not worth fighting versus 28% who say it is, worse than Iraq or Afghanistan in comparable polling.\n6. [sq2 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CNN (July 23) reports a renewed US bombing campaign two weeks old, with US forces taking casualties and wary allies; CIA and DIA assess the bombing is unlikely to shift Iran\u0027s position.\n7. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Qatar, the key mediator, threatened to walk away from talks after Iran struck a Qatari tanker, per current and former US officials.\n8. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 72 | UP | VERY_RECENT] McGurk (July 24) writes the nearly six-month conflict has evolved into a structural struggle over control of the Strait of Hormuz, with regional actors building infrastructure around it.\n9. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | DOWN | DATED] A June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding produced a ceasefire that halted open war for weeks before hostilities resumed in July, showing rapid de-escalation is possible.\n10. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 82 | NEUTRAL | DATED] During the June ceasefire, CBS/YouGov found only 22% thought the agreement favored the US and most said the war created more problems than it solved; opposition did not fall materially.\n11. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Fox poll finds 64% of voters expect the conflict to last a year or more, up 13 points since May.\n12. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] A Monte Carlo random walk from 59% over one month yields median 59.7, mean 59.6 (sd 2.4), P(\u003e=59)=0.64, P(\u003e63)=0.07, P(\u003c55)=0.04.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.97, Volume: $167.5K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No direct reading of the tracker CSV after July 17-23, 2026\n - No base rate for month-over-month volatility of this specific polling average\n - No polls conducted in August 2026\n - Unknown which pollsters are in Silver\u0027s average and their house effects\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether a new ceasefire/deal emerges before mid-August\n - Whether escalation (US casualties, oil/gas prices) pushes opposition past 60%\n - Possible ceiling effect from Republican partisan support\n - Tracker methodology changes or sparse polling causing flat/stale values",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.\n\n## Question\nWhat percent of Americans will oppose the Iran War on August 14, 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nAccording to the [resolution source](https://www.natesilver.net/p/iran-war-polls-popularity-approval):\n\n\u003e ##### **Updated July 17, 2026**\n\n\u003e Hostilities between the US and Iran have resumed in earnest. On Thursday,\u00a0[The New York Times reported](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/07/15/world/iran-war-trump-hormuz)\u00a0that \u201cThe United States attacked Iran anew and explosions were reported in several parts of the country Wednesday night and Thursday morning, as the countries clashed for a fifth straight day over the Strait of Hormuz.\u201d The US\u00a0[also reimposed a blockade on Iranian ports](https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-hormuz-strait-war-july-15-2026-b7c592f269d822407dd6b5641602bf25)\u00a0in response to Iranian attacks on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.\n\n\u003e Polling on the Iran War remains negative. As of today, just 33 percent of Americans support the conflict, while about 59 percent oppose it. Just 28 percent of Americans said the war was worth fighting in the latest\u00a0[Washington Post/Ipsos poll](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/07/16/trump-approval-stuck-30s-post-ipsos-poll-shows/). That\u2019s less support than the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq got in WaPo\u2019s historical polling.\u00a0**-EMD*, 7/16/26***\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 44694, \"question_id\": 44847}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the opposition percentage shown at the Silver Bulletin\u0027s [Do Americans support or oppose the Iran War?](https://www.natesilver.net/p/iran-war-polls-popularity-approval) tracker for August 14, 2026, when accessed by Metaculus on or after August 15, 2026.\n\n## Fine Print\nBetween the value shown in the chart and the csv file under the chart (\"Get the data\"), the csv file takes precedence. See the \"disapprove\" column in the csv.\n\n***\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44694) which opened on 2026-07-17 20:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.\n\n## Range\nThe answer must be a number in [50.95, 67.05] (units: %).\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n- (w=0.35) Will the Silver Bulletin Iran War tracker\u0027s \u0027disapprove\u0027 value on August 14, 2026 be at or above its mid-July 2026 level of roughly 59%? \u2014 Anchors the central tendency: polling averages are sticky, so the key issue is whether opposition drifts up, holds, or d\n- (w=0.30) Will active US-Iran hostilities (strikes, blockade, Hormuz clashes) still be ongoing or escalating during the first two weeks of August 2026? \u2014 Continued or escalating war (especially US casualties, oil/gas price spikes) tends to push opposition higher; a ceasefir\n- (w=0.20) Will opposition exceed 63% (i.e., a \u003e4-point increase from the ~59% baseline) on August 14, 2026? \u2014 Tests the upper tail \u2014 how plausible a large further deterioration is, given partisan floors on opposition (~30-35% Repu\n- (w=0.15) Will opposition fall below 55% on August 14, 2026? \u2014 Tests the lower tail \u2014 a rally-around-the-flag or resolution scenario that reverses several points in one month.\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Silver Bulletin tracker as of mid/late July 2026 shows 33% support and ~59% oppose the Iran War, with a net gap of roughly 25 points.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Tracker trajectory: opposition rose from ~48% (early March) to 52% (late March) to nearly 60% (May 18), then ~59% in mid-July \u2014 roughly 1-2 points per month, now plateaued.\n3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Fox News poll (July 17-20, 1,003 RVs) found 56% oppose US military action against Iran, with 40% strongly opposed, below the 59% tracker average.\n4. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 78 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Fox poll shows 76% of Republicans support the war versus 84% of Democrats opposing, implying a partisan floor limiting how far opposition can rise.\n5. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CNN analysis (July 20) reports 68% say the Iran war is not worth fighting versus 28% who say it is, worse than Iraq or Afghanistan in comparable polling.\n6. [sq2 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CNN (July 23) reports a renewed US bombing campaign two weeks old, with US forces taking casualties and wary allies; CIA and DIA assess the bombing is unlikely to shift Iran\u0027s position.\n7. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Qatar, the key mediator, threatened to walk away from talks after Iran struck a Qatari tanker, per current and former US officials.\n8. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 72 | UP | VERY_RECENT] McGurk (July 24) writes the nearly six-month conflict has evolved into a structural struggle over control of the Strait of Hormuz, with regional actors building infrastructure around it.\n9. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | DOWN | DATED] A June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding produced a ceasefire that halted open war for weeks before hostilities resumed in July, showing rapid de-escalation is possible.\n10. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 82 | NEUTRAL | DATED] During the June ceasefire, CBS/YouGov found only 22% thought the agreement favored the US and most said the war created more problems than it solved; opposition did not fall materially.\n11. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Fox poll finds 64% of voters expect the conflict to last a year or more, up 13 points since May.\n12. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] A Monte Carlo random walk from 59% over one month yields median 59.7, mean 59.6 (sd 2.4), P(\u003e=59)=0.64, P(\u003e63)=0.07, P(\u003c55)=0.04.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.97, Volume: $167.5K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No direct reading of the tracker CSV after July 17-23, 2026\n - No base rate for month-over-month volatility of this specific polling average\n - No polls conducted in August 2026\n - Unknown which pollsters are in Silver\u0027s average and their house effects\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether a new ceasefire/deal emerges before mid-August\n - Whether escalation (US casualties, oil/gas prices) pushes opposition past 60%\n - Possible ceiling effect from Republican partisan support\n - Tracker methodology changes or sparse polling causing flat/stale values\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).\n (c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.\n (d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.\n (e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).\n (f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.\n- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.\n- Don\u0027t pile mass at one value \u2014 if you\u0027re tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.\n- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen \u2014 don\u0027t override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.\n- **Relative-return / spread questions (\"how much will X\u0027s return exceed Y\u0027s\").** A near-zero median is usually right, but size the TAILS to the more VOLATILE leg, not to a generic 2-3pp spread. Two broad equity indices (e.g. Nasdaq-100 vs S\u0026P 500) do stay within roughly \u00b12-3pp over a two-week window. But when one leg is a commodity (crude oil, gold) or a single high-beta stock (e.g. Nvidia), the two-week realized spread regularly reaches \u00b110pp or more \u2014 crude-vs-equity spreads have hit \u00b118pp. In those cases set p10/p90 to at least \u00b110pp (\u00b115pp or wider for oil) while keeping the median near the status-quo spread; the 2-3pp intuition applies only to index-vs-index.\n- **Heavy-tailed one-off magnitudes (opening-weekend box office, product-launch or debut numbers).** Pre-event tracking for these routinely misses by \u00b140% or more, and results land both far above and far below the consensus. Do NOT treat the displayed [min, max] range as the plausible range or clamp p10/p90 to its edges: the outcome can fall outside the range in either direction (recent opening weekends resolved ~7% above a displayed ceiling in one case and roughly half the displayed floor in another). Set p10/p90 wide enough that a 2x-or-0.5x surprise versus your central estimate still lands inside the interval, and when concrete current tracking disagrees with historical/franchise base rates, weight the tracking.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution \u2014 6-10 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"p10\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p25\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p50\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p75\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p90\": \u003cnumber\u003e\n}\n\nPercentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 \u003c= p25 \u003c= p50 \u003c= p75 \u003c= p90).\n",
"models": [
"opus"
],
"p50": 59.5,
"percentiles": {
"0.1": 56.2,
"0.25": 58.1,
"0.5": 59.5,
"0.75": 61.0,
"0.9": 62.6
},
"rationale": "(a) About four weeks from the mid/late-July evidence cutoff to the August 14, 2026 reading. (b) Status quo: the tracker sits at ~59% oppose / 33% support; polling averages of this type are sticky and sparsely updated, so no-change implies roughly 59. (c) The trend since March has been opposition rising ~1-2 points/month (48% early March, 52% late March, ~60% May 18, ~59% mid-July), i.e., a plateau in the most recent stretch; continuing that gentle drift gives ~59-61. (d) A random-walk simulation from 59 over one month gives median ~59.7 (sd ~2.4), P(\u003e=59)=0.64, P(\u003e63)=0.07, P(\u003c55)=0.04; expert commentary (CNN: 68% say not worth fighting) skews slightly worse for the war, while the Fox July 17-20 poll at 56% oppose pulls the average slightly down, roughly offsetting. Partisan floors (76% of Republicans supportive) cap how high opposition can climb, arguing for a soft ceiling near 62-64. (e) LOW scenario: a Qatari-mediated ceasefire or negotiated Hormuz arrangement in late July/early August, plus a few lower-opposition pollsters (Fox-type, RV samples) entering the average, drags it to ~56 or below; note the June ceasefire did NOT materially reduce opposition, so this is less likely. (f) HIGH scenario: escalation with mounting US casualties, an oil/gasoline price spike, and a downed aircraft or attack on US forces pushes opposition past 62-63 as soft Republicans defect. Net: I center just marginally above status quo at 59.5, with modestly asymmetric tails favoring the upside given ongoing escalation, but wide enough to cover both a ceasefire dip and stale/flat tracker behavior."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "politics",
"n_sub_qs": 4,
"n_tools": 4,
"reasoning_approach": "Anchor on the tracker\u0027s latest ~59% opposition value, then use the sub-questions to shift and widen that anchor: sq2 (war trajectory) sets the direction of drift while sq1/sq3/sq4 calibrate the central value and tail widths, combined as a weighted average into a final distribution centered near the baseline with slight upward skew.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will the Silver Bulletin Iran War tracker\u0027s \u0027disapprove\u0027 value on August 14, 2026 be at or above its mid-July 2026 level of roughly 59%?",
"rationale": "Anchors the central tendency: polling averages are sticky, so the key issue is whether opposition drifts up, holds, or decays from the ~59% baseline.",
"weight": 0.35
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will active US-Iran hostilities (strikes, blockade, Hormuz clashes) still be ongoing or escalating during the first two weeks of August 2026?",
"rationale": "Continued or escalating war (especially US casualties, oil/gas price spikes) tends to push opposition higher; a ceasefire or perceived \u0027win\u0027 could soften opposition.",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will opposition exceed 63% (i.e., a \u003e4-point increase from the ~59% baseline) on August 14, 2026?",
"rationale": "Tests the upper tail \u2014 how plausible a large further deterioration is, given partisan floors on opposition (~30-35% Republican support keeps opposition capped).",
"weight": 0.2
},
{
"id": "sq4",
"question": "Will opposition fall below 55% on August 14, 2026?",
"rationale": "Tests the lower tail \u2014 a rally-around-the-flag or resolution scenario that reverses several points in one month.",
"weight": 0.15
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find the latest values from Nate Silver\u0027s Silver Bulletin \u0027Do Americans support or oppose the Iran War?\u0027 tracker (support/oppose percentages and any updates after July 17, 2026), plus the most recent individual polls (Washington Post/Ipsos, YouGov/Economist, Quinnipiac, Reuters/Ipsos, Gallup, AP-NORC) on support/opposition to US military action against Iran in July-August 2026. Also report the current state of US-Iran hostilities (Strait of Hormuz, blockade, ceasefire talks).",
"max_searches": 5,
"question_title": "What percent of Americans will oppose the Iran War on August 14, 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"Silver Bulletin Iran war support oppose tracker percent",
"poll Americans oppose Iran war July 2026 percent",
"US Iran ceasefire Strait of Hormuz news"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_days": 45,
"queries": [
"Iran war poll opposition Americans",
"Washington Post Ipsos poll Iran war worth fighting",
"US strikes Iran Strait of Hormuz blockade escalation"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\nnp.random.seed(0)\n# Model: polling-average random walk over ~28 days from 59% baseline\n# Historical monthly drift in war-opposition polling averages: small, ~0.5-1.5 pts/month upward during ongoing unpopular war\nn=200000\nbase=59.0\ndrift=np.random.normal(0.7,1.0,n) # slow upward drift, uncertain\nnoise=np.random.normal(0,1.3,n) # measurement/averaging noise\nshock=np.where(np.random.rand(n)\u003c0.15, np.random.normal(-3.0,2.0,n), 0) # ceasefire/resolution shock lowers opposition\nesc=np.where(np.random.rand(n)\u003c0.15, np.random.normal(2.5,1.5,n), 0) # major escalation/casualties raises opposition\nx=base+drift+noise+shock+esc\nx=np.clip(x,45,72)\nfor q in [5,10,25,50,75,90,95]:\n print(q, round(np.percentile(x,q),2))\nprint(\u0027P(\u003e=59)\u0027, round((x\u003e=59).mean(),3))\nprint(\u0027P(\u003e63)\u0027, round((x\u003e63).mean(),3))\nprint(\u0027P(\u003c55)\u0027, round((x\u003c55).mean(),3))\nprint(\u0027mean\u0027, round(x.mean(),2), \u0027sd\u0027, round(x.std(),2))",
"description": "Monte Carlo of a polling-average random walk from the 59% baseline over one month, with escalation and ceasefire shock branches, to produce the numeric distribution and tail probabilities."
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-07-25T20:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nAccording to the [resolution source](https://www.natesilver.net/p/iran-war-polls-popularity-approval):\n\n\u003e ##### **Updated July 17, 2026**\n\n\u003e Hostilities between the US and Iran have resumed in earnest. On Thursday,\u00a0[The New York Times reported](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/07/15/world/iran-war-trump-hormuz)\u00a0that \u201cThe United States attacked Iran anew and explosions were reported in several parts of the country Wednesday night and Thursday morning, as the countries clashed for a fifth straight day over the Strait of Hormuz.\u201d The US\u00a0[also reimposed a blockade on Iranian ports](https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-hormuz-strait-war-july-15-2026-b7c592f269d822407dd6b5641602bf25)\u00a0in response to Iranian attacks on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.\n\n\u003e Polling on the Iran War remains negative. As of today, just 33 percent of Americans support the conflict, while about 59 percent oppose it. Just 28 percent of Americans said the war was worth fighting in the latest\u00a0[Washington Post/Ipsos poll](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/07/16/trump-approval-stuck-30s-post-ipsos-poll-shows/). That\u2019s less support than the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq got in WaPo\u2019s historical polling.\u00a0**-EMD*, 7/16/26***\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 44694, \"question_id\": 44847}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the opposition percentage shown at the Silver Bulletin\u0027s [Do Americans support or oppose the Iran War?](https://www.natesilver.net/p/iran-war-polls-popularity-approval) tracker for August 14, 2026, when accessed by Metaculus on or after August 15, 2026.\n\n## Fine Print\nBetween the value shown in the chart and the csv file under the chart (\"Get the data\"), the csv file takes precedence. See the \"disapprove\" column in the csv.\n\n***\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44694) which opened on 2026-07-17 20:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.",
"open_lower": true,
"open_upper": true,
"q_max": 67.05,
"q_min": 50.95,
"question_type": "numeric",
"title": "What percent of Americans will oppose the Iran War on August 14, 2026?",
"units": "%"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.97, Volume: $167.5K",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 4,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 27.3,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "14 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 24.5,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "0 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.62,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "22 articles",
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.29,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Monte Carlo of a polling-average random walk from the 59% ba",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "Silver Bulletin tracker as of mid/late July 2026 shows 33% support and ~59% oppose the Iran War, with a net gap of roughly 25 points.",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Tracker trajectory: opposition rose from ~48% (early March) to 52% (late March) to nearly 60% (May 18), then ~59% in mid-July \u2014 roughly 1-2 points per month, now plateaued.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Fox News poll (July 17-20, 1,003 RVs) found 56% oppose US military action against Iran, with 40% strongly opposed, below the 59% tracker average.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Fox poll shows 76% of Republicans support the war versus 84% of Democrats opposing, implying a partisan floor limiting how far opposition can rise.",
"credibility": 78,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "CNN analysis (July 20) reports 68% say the Iran war is not worth fighting versus 28% who say it is, worse than Iraq or Afghanistan in comparable polling.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "CNN (July 23) reports a renewed US bombing campaign two weeks old, with US forces taking casualties and wary allies; CIA and DIA assess the bombing is unlikely to shift Iran\u0027s position.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Qatar, the key mediator, threatened to walk away from talks after Iran struck a Qatari tanker, per current and former US officials.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "McGurk (July 24) writes the nearly six-month conflict has evolved into a structural struggle over control of the Strait of Hormuz, with regional actors building infrastructure around it.",
"credibility": 72,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "A June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding produced a ceasefire that halted open war for weeks before hostilities resumed in July, showing rapid de-escalation is possible.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "During the June ceasefire, CBS/YouGov found only 22% thought the agreement favored the US and most said the war created more problems than it solved; opposition did not fall materially.",
"credibility": 82,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "Fox poll finds 64% of voters expect the conflict to last a year or more, up 13 points since May.",
"credibility": 78,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "A Monte Carlo random walk from 59% over one month yields median 59.7, mean 59.6 (sd 2.4), P(\u003e=59)=0.64, P(\u003e63)=0.07, P(\u003c55)=0.04.",
"credibility": 35,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No direct reading of the tracker CSV after July 17-23, 2026",
"No base rate for month-over-month volatility of this specific polling average",
"No polls conducted in August 2026",
"Unknown which pollsters are in Silver\u0027s average and their house effects"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether a new ceasefire/deal emerges before mid-August",
"Whether escalation (US casualties, oil/gas prices) pushes opposition past 60%",
"Possible ceiling effect from Republican partisan support",
"Tracker methodology changes or sparse polling causing flat/stale values"
],
"n_evidence": 12
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 17.66,
"plan": 24.72,
"research": 27.3,
"synthesis": 30.59
}
}