Estimate the July 2026 baseline and the recent monthly drift in StatCounter's Linux desktop series, then use a Monte Carlo of drift plus noise plus rare reclassification jumps to compute P(August > 8.00%); the weighted average of the sub-question probabilities is checked against that holistic simulation, which should dominate since all sub-questions are facets of the same time series.
## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.99, Volume: $161.6K
1. [sq1 | question_description | STRONG cred 85 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] StatCounter's mid-July 2026 reading for worldwide desktop Linux share was 7.56%, requiring roughly +0.45pp to exceed 8.00% in August. 2. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo simulation with baseline drift and noise gives P(Aug 2026 > 8.00%) ≈ 0.15, rising to 0.52 if July closes at 7.85% and falling to 0.04 if July closes at 7.45%. 3. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Simulation sensitivity shows outcome hinges on monthly drift: P=0.09 at +0.10pp/month drift versus P=0.33 at +0.30pp/month. 4. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 55 | DOWN | DATED] Reported long-run series (2.76% July 2022 → 4.44% July 2024 → ~4.7% end-2025) implies average monthly gains of roughly +0.05 to +0.08pp. 5. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | DATED] Growth pace has accelerated: Linux took 2.2 years to move 2%→3% but only 0.7 years to move 3%→4%. 6. [sq2 | web_search | WEAK cred 30 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Search summaries report conflicting StatCounter June 2026 Linux figures of 4.39% (Linuxiac/Slashdot) and 3.09% (excluding 'Unknown'), both far below the question's 7.56% mid-July figure. 7. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | DATED] StatCounter's 'Unknown' OS category reportedly swelled to 16.77% in April 2026, depressing measured Linux share and creating reclassification volatility. 8. [sq3 | web_search | WEAK cred 35 | UP | RECENT] Reported month-to-month swings in 2026 (e.g., 3.16% March → 2.99% April → 4.39% June) indicate the series can move by ≥0.4pp in a single month. 9. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | UP | DATED] Analysts attribute accelerating Linux desktop adoption to Windows 10 end-of-life (October 14, 2025) and Proton/Steam Deck gaming compatibility gains. 10. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | RECENT] StatCounter June 2026 reportedly showed Windows desktop share at 56.55%, a multi-year low, consistent with continued share loss by Microsoft. 11. [sq4 | web_search | WEAK cred 40 | DOWN | DATED] A FOSSPost projection stated Linux could reach about 6% global desktop share by late 2026 if current trends continue. 12. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 20 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] News article searches returned only unrelated content (presidential records, medical records), providing no coverage of Linux market share developments in July 2026. ## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.99, Volume: $161.6K Information gaps: - No verified month-by-month StatCounter desktop Linux series for Jan–July 2026 (needed for actual drift) - Unresolved conflict between reported ~4.4% June 2026 and 7.56% mid-July 2026 figures - No base rate for frequency of ≥+0.4pp single-month jumps in this series - No data on August seasonality or StatCounter methodology/revision changes in 2026 Key uncertainties: - Whether the 7.56% mid-July baseline is genuine or reflects a different chart/definition - Final July close level, which dominates August outcome probability - Size and volatility of 'Unknown' category reclassifications - Whether Windows 10 EOL migration wave is still accelerating or plateauing
You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates — your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.
## Question
Will the desktop market share of Linux exceed 8% in August 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
Medium:[ Linux in 2026: Why Millions Are Switching Away from Windows for Good](https://medium.com/@techinfintrix/linux-in-2026-why-millions-are-switching-away-from-windows-for-good-de104855bcdb)
[](https://medium.com/@techinfintrix?source=---byline--de104855bcdb---------------------------------------)
> Something unusual is happening on the world’s computers. Quietly, without a headline launch event or a billion-dollar marketing campaign, millions of ordinary users are walking away from Windows. Not because they have to. Not because someone told them to. But because, after years of patience wearing thin, they have finally had enough — and Linux has finally become good enough.
The article explains that past objections to the usage of Linux, such as difficulty of use or the lack of programs and games, are increasingly no longer an issue. 
In mid July 2026, the market share for Linux displayed by Statcounter was 7.56%: 
`{"format": "metac_reveal_and_close_in_period", "info": {"post_id": 44693, "question_id": 44846}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as **Yes** if, for the month of August 2026, the desktop operating system market share worldwide of Linux is greater than 8.00%, according to the [bar chart ](https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share/desktop/worldwide/#monthly-202607-202607-bar)information presented by Statcounter, when accessed by Metaculus after August 31, 2026. 
## Fine Print
INSTRUCTIONS: 
1. At the [resolution source](https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share/desktop/worldwide/#monthly-202607-202607-bar), click on *Edit Chart Data*.
2. Ensure Operating System is Desktop and Chart Type is Bar.
3. Ensure Period is Monthly.
4. Set the the dates to the following: *From August 2026* and *To August 2026*. 
***
This question's information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44693) which opened on 2026-07-17 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.
## Sub-question decomposition
- (w=0.30) Will StatCounter's final worldwide desktop Linux share for July 2026 come in at 7.70% or higher (i.e., the mid-month 7.56% reading holds or rises through month-end)? — August must exceed 8.00%; the starting level for July is the base from which a one-month move is measured. A higher July
- (w=0.35) Has the average month-over-month change in StatCounter worldwide desktop Linux share over the preceding 6 months been at least +0.20 percentage points? — The required Jul→Aug jump is roughly +0.4pp from 7.56%. Recent trend slope is the single best predictor; typical monthly
- (w=0.25) Will a single-month positive shock of ≥+0.4pp in Linux desktop share occur, based on the historical base rate of such monthly jumps in StatCounter's series (including August seasonality and 'Unknown'/reclassification artifacts)? — Even without trend, StatCounter monthly noise and methodology/reclassification artifacts occasionally produce large jump
- (w=0.10) Is there an identifiable ongoing catalyst (Windows 10 EOL fallout, major OEM/government migrations, SteamOS/handheld growth) plausibly accelerating Linux desktop adoption in Q3 2026? — A structural catalyst could sustain above-trend growth; absent one, mean reversion to slow drift is more likely.
Combination rule: **weighted_average**
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | question_description | STRONG cred 85 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] StatCounter's mid-July 2026 reading for worldwide desktop Linux share was 7.56%, requiring roughly +0.45pp to exceed 8.00% in August.
2. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo simulation with baseline drift and noise gives P(Aug 2026 > 8.00%) ≈ 0.15, rising to 0.52 if July closes at 7.85% and falling to 0.04 if July closes at 7.45%.
3. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Simulation sensitivity shows outcome hinges on monthly drift: P=0.09 at +0.10pp/month drift versus P=0.33 at +0.30pp/month.
4. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 55 | DOWN | DATED] Reported long-run series (2.76% July 2022 → 4.44% July 2024 → ~4.7% end-2025) implies average monthly gains of roughly +0.05 to +0.08pp.
5. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | DATED] Growth pace has accelerated: Linux took 2.2 years to move 2%→3% but only 0.7 years to move 3%→4%.
6. [sq2 | web_search | WEAK cred 30 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Search summaries report conflicting StatCounter June 2026 Linux figures of 4.39% (Linuxiac/Slashdot) and 3.09% (excluding 'Unknown'), both far below the question's 7.56% mid-July figure.
7. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | DATED] StatCounter's 'Unknown' OS category reportedly swelled to 16.77% in April 2026, depressing measured Linux share and creating reclassification volatility.
8. [sq3 | web_search | WEAK cred 35 | UP | RECENT] Reported month-to-month swings in 2026 (e.g., 3.16% March → 2.99% April → 4.39% June) indicate the series can move by ≥0.4pp in a single month.
9. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | UP | DATED] Analysts attribute accelerating Linux desktop adoption to Windows 10 end-of-life (October 14, 2025) and Proton/Steam Deck gaming compatibility gains.
10. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | RECENT] StatCounter June 2026 reportedly showed Windows desktop share at 56.55%, a multi-year low, consistent with continued share loss by Microsoft.
11. [sq4 | web_search | WEAK cred 40 | DOWN | DATED] A FOSSPost projection stated Linux could reach about 6% global desktop share by late 2026 if current trends continue.
12. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 20 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] News article searches returned only unrelated content (presidential records, medical records), providing no coverage of Linux market share developments in July 2026.
## Cross-Market Signals
### Polymarket
- "Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.99, Volume: $161.6K
Information gaps:
- No verified month-by-month StatCounter desktop Linux series for Jan–July 2026 (needed for actual drift)
- Unresolved conflict between reported ~4.4% June 2026 and 7.56% mid-July 2026 figures
- No base rate for frequency of ≥+0.4pp single-month jumps in this series
- No data on August seasonality or StatCounter methodology/revision changes in 2026
Key uncertainties:
- Whether the 7.56% mid-July baseline is genuine or reflects a different chart/definition
- Final July close level, which dominates August outcome probability
- Size and volatility of 'Unknown' category reclassifications
- Whether Windows 10 EOL migration wave is still accelerating or plateauing
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The status quo outcome — what happens if nothing changes from today.
(c) A brief scenario that results in NO.
(d) A brief scenario that results in YES.
## Calibration guidance
- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition — independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.
- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.
- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid >0.97 or <0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological — overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question — move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.
- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or "very recent" claim — especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility — must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.
- **Also provide a holistic estimate** — your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) (d) above — 5-8 sentences total>",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq2": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq3": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq4": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>
},
"holistic_p_yes": <float in [0.01, 0.99] — your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition>,
"what_would_change_my_mind": "<1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%>"
}
{
"forecast": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | question_description | STRONG cred 85 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] StatCounter\u0027s mid-July 2026 reading for worldwide desktop Linux share was 7.56%, requiring roughly +0.45pp to exceed 8.00% in August.\n2. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo simulation with baseline drift and noise gives P(Aug 2026 \u003e 8.00%) \u2248 0.15, rising to 0.52 if July closes at 7.85% and falling to 0.04 if July closes at 7.45%.\n3. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Simulation sensitivity shows outcome hinges on monthly drift: P=0.09 at +0.10pp/month drift versus P=0.33 at +0.30pp/month.\n4. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 55 | DOWN | DATED] Reported long-run series (2.76% July 2022 \u2192 4.44% July 2024 \u2192 ~4.7% end-2025) implies average monthly gains of roughly +0.05 to +0.08pp.\n5. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | DATED] Growth pace has accelerated: Linux took 2.2 years to move 2%\u21923% but only 0.7 years to move 3%\u21924%.\n6. [sq2 | web_search | WEAK cred 30 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Search summaries report conflicting StatCounter June 2026 Linux figures of 4.39% (Linuxiac/Slashdot) and 3.09% (excluding \u0027Unknown\u0027), both far below the question\u0027s 7.56% mid-July figure.\n7. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | DATED] StatCounter\u0027s \u0027Unknown\u0027 OS category reportedly swelled to 16.77% in April 2026, depressing measured Linux share and creating reclassification volatility.\n8. [sq3 | web_search | WEAK cred 35 | UP | RECENT] Reported month-to-month swings in 2026 (e.g., 3.16% March \u2192 2.99% April \u2192 4.39% June) indicate the series can move by \u22650.4pp in a single month.\n9. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | UP | DATED] Analysts attribute accelerating Linux desktop adoption to Windows 10 end-of-life (October 14, 2025) and Proton/Steam Deck gaming compatibility gains.\n10. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | RECENT] StatCounter June 2026 reportedly showed Windows desktop share at 56.55%, a multi-year low, consistent with continued share loss by Microsoft.\n11. [sq4 | web_search | WEAK cred 40 | DOWN | DATED] A FOSSPost projection stated Linux could reach about 6% global desktop share by late 2026 if current trends continue.\n12. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 20 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] News article searches returned only unrelated content (presidential records, medical records), providing no coverage of Linux market share developments in July 2026.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.99, Volume: $161.6K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No verified month-by-month StatCounter desktop Linux series for Jan\u2013July 2026 (needed for actual drift)\n - Unresolved conflict between reported ~4.4% June 2026 and 7.56% mid-July 2026 figures\n - No base rate for frequency of \u2265+0.4pp single-month jumps in this series\n - No data on August seasonality or StatCounter methodology/revision changes in 2026\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether the 7.56% mid-July baseline is genuine or reflects a different chart/definition\n - Final July close level, which dominates August outcome probability\n - Size and volatility of \u0027Unknown\u0027 category reclassifications\n - Whether Windows 10 EOL migration wave is still accelerating or plateauing",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates \u2014 your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.\n\n## Question\nWill the desktop market share of Linux exceed 8% in August 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nMedium:[ Linux in 2026: Why Millions Are Switching Away from Windows for Good](https://medium.com/@techinfintrix/linux-in-2026-why-millions-are-switching-away-from-windows-for-good-de104855bcdb)\n\n[](https://medium.com/@techinfintrix?source=---byline--de104855bcdb---------------------------------------)\n\n\u003e Something unusual is happening on the world\u2019s computers. Quietly, without a headline launch event or a billion-dollar marketing campaign, millions of ordinary users are walking away from Windows. Not because they have to. Not because someone told them to. But because, after years of patience wearing thin, they have finally had enough \u2014 and Linux has finally become good enough.\n\nThe article explains that past objections to the usage of Linux, such as difficulty of use or the lack of programs and games, are increasingly no longer an issue.\u0026#x20;\n\nIn mid July 2026, the market share for Linux displayed by Statcounter was 7.56%:\u0026#x20;\n\n\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 44693, \"question_id\": 44846}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if, for the month of August 2026, the desktop operating system market share worldwide of Linux is greater than 8.00%, according to the [bar chart ](https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share/desktop/worldwide/#monthly-202607-202607-bar)information presented by Statcounter, when accessed by Metaculus after August 31, 2026.\u0026#x20;\n\n## Fine Print\nINSTRUCTIONS:\u0026#x20;\n\n1. At the [resolution source](https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share/desktop/worldwide/#monthly-202607-202607-bar), click on *Edit Chart Data*.\n2. Ensure Operating System is Desktop and Chart Type is Bar.\n3. Ensure Period is Monthly.\n4. Set the the dates to the following: *From August 2026* and *To August 2026*.\u0026#x20;\n\n***\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44693) which opened on 2026-07-17 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.\n\n## Sub-question decomposition\n- (w=0.30) Will StatCounter\u0027s final worldwide desktop Linux share for July 2026 come in at 7.70% or higher (i.e., the mid-month 7.56% reading holds or rises through month-end)? \u2014 August must exceed 8.00%; the starting level for July is the base from which a one-month move is measured. A higher July\n- (w=0.35) Has the average month-over-month change in StatCounter worldwide desktop Linux share over the preceding 6 months been at least +0.20 percentage points? \u2014 The required Jul\u2192Aug jump is roughly +0.4pp from 7.56%. Recent trend slope is the single best predictor; typical monthly\n- (w=0.25) Will a single-month positive shock of \u2265+0.4pp in Linux desktop share occur, based on the historical base rate of such monthly jumps in StatCounter\u0027s series (including August seasonality and \u0027Unknown\u0027/reclassification artifacts)? \u2014 Even without trend, StatCounter monthly noise and methodology/reclassification artifacts occasionally produce large jump\n- (w=0.10) Is there an identifiable ongoing catalyst (Windows 10 EOL fallout, major OEM/government migrations, SteamOS/handheld growth) plausibly accelerating Linux desktop adoption in Q3 2026? \u2014 A structural catalyst could sustain above-trend growth; absent one, mean reversion to slow drift is more likely.\n\nCombination rule: **weighted_average**\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | question_description | STRONG cred 85 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] StatCounter\u0027s mid-July 2026 reading for worldwide desktop Linux share was 7.56%, requiring roughly +0.45pp to exceed 8.00% in August.\n2. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo simulation with baseline drift and noise gives P(Aug 2026 \u003e 8.00%) \u2248 0.15, rising to 0.52 if July closes at 7.85% and falling to 0.04 if July closes at 7.45%.\n3. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Simulation sensitivity shows outcome hinges on monthly drift: P=0.09 at +0.10pp/month drift versus P=0.33 at +0.30pp/month.\n4. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 55 | DOWN | DATED] Reported long-run series (2.76% July 2022 \u2192 4.44% July 2024 \u2192 ~4.7% end-2025) implies average monthly gains of roughly +0.05 to +0.08pp.\n5. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | DATED] Growth pace has accelerated: Linux took 2.2 years to move 2%\u21923% but only 0.7 years to move 3%\u21924%.\n6. [sq2 | web_search | WEAK cred 30 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Search summaries report conflicting StatCounter June 2026 Linux figures of 4.39% (Linuxiac/Slashdot) and 3.09% (excluding \u0027Unknown\u0027), both far below the question\u0027s 7.56% mid-July figure.\n7. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | DATED] StatCounter\u0027s \u0027Unknown\u0027 OS category reportedly swelled to 16.77% in April 2026, depressing measured Linux share and creating reclassification volatility.\n8. [sq3 | web_search | WEAK cred 35 | UP | RECENT] Reported month-to-month swings in 2026 (e.g., 3.16% March \u2192 2.99% April \u2192 4.39% June) indicate the series can move by \u22650.4pp in a single month.\n9. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | UP | DATED] Analysts attribute accelerating Linux desktop adoption to Windows 10 end-of-life (October 14, 2025) and Proton/Steam Deck gaming compatibility gains.\n10. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | RECENT] StatCounter June 2026 reportedly showed Windows desktop share at 56.55%, a multi-year low, consistent with continued share loss by Microsoft.\n11. [sq4 | web_search | WEAK cred 40 | DOWN | DATED] A FOSSPost projection stated Linux could reach about 6% global desktop share by late 2026 if current trends continue.\n12. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 20 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] News article searches returned only unrelated content (presidential records, medical records), providing no coverage of Linux market share developments in July 2026.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.99, Volume: $161.6K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No verified month-by-month StatCounter desktop Linux series for Jan\u2013July 2026 (needed for actual drift)\n - Unresolved conflict between reported ~4.4% June 2026 and 7.56% mid-July 2026 figures\n - No base rate for frequency of \u2265+0.4pp single-month jumps in this series\n - No data on August seasonality or StatCounter methodology/revision changes in 2026\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether the 7.56% mid-July baseline is genuine or reflects a different chart/definition\n - Final July close level, which dominates August outcome probability\n - Size and volatility of \u0027Unknown\u0027 category reclassifications\n - Whether Windows 10 EOL migration wave is still accelerating or plateauing\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The status quo outcome \u2014 what happens if nothing changes from today.\n (c) A brief scenario that results in NO.\n (d) A brief scenario that results in YES.\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition \u2014 independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.\n- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.\n- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid \u003e0.97 or \u003c0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological \u2014 overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.\n- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question \u2014 move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.\n- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or \"very recent\" claim \u2014 especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility \u2014 must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.\n- **Also provide a holistic estimate** \u2014 your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) (b) (c) (d) above \u2014 5-8 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"sub_question_estimates\": {\n \"sq1\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq2\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq3\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq4\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e\n },\n \"holistic_p_yes\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99] \u2014 your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition\u003e,\n \"what_would_change_my_mind\": \"\u003c1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%\u003e\"\n}\n",
"holistic_p_yes": 0.2,
"models": [
"opus"
],
"p_yes": 0.3077,
"rationale": "(a) The question resolves on StatCounter\u0027s finalized August 2026 figure, published shortly after August 31, 2026 \u2014 roughly six weeks from the mid-July snapshot cited in the description. (b) Status quo: the mid-July reading was 7.56%; with the recent drift implied by Linux rising from ~4.4% (mid-2024) to 7.56% (mid-2026) \u2014 roughly +0.10 to +0.20pp/month, possibly faster in the last year \u2014 July likely closes near 7.5\u20137.7% and August lands near 7.6\u20137.9%, i.e., just short of the 8.00% threshold. (c) NO scenario: Windows 10 EOL migration wave plateaus, \u0027Unknown\u0027 reclassification reverses slightly, and Linux inches to ~7.7\u20137.9% in August \u2014 the modal outcome. (d) YES scenario: July closes strong (\u22657.8%), the summer seasonal dip in school/office Windows and ChromeOS traffic boosts Linux\u0027s relative share, and a reclassification of the large \u0027Unknown\u0027 bucket adds a lump of ~0.3pp, pushing August past 8.00%. Key uncertainties are the genuineness of the 7.56% baseline (conflicting search reports of ~4.4% for June 2026 look like stale 2024 articles, so I largely trust the chart) and the volatility injected by StatCounter\u0027s swollen \u0027Unknown\u0027 category. Required move is roughly +0.45pp in ~1.5 months, about 2\u20133x typical monthly drift, so the base case is a near-miss with a meaningful tail of success.",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": 0.35,
"sq2": 0.4,
"sq3": 0.25,
"sq4": 0.72
},
"what_would_change_my_mind": "A verified month-by-month 2026 StatCounter series showing consistent +0.3pp/month gains or a July close above 7.85% would push me above 40\u201350%; confirmation that July closed at or below ~7.5%, or that the 7.56% figure reflects a non-standard chart/definition, would push me below 10%."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "tech",
"n_sub_qs": 4,
"n_tools": 4,
"reasoning_approach": "Estimate the July 2026 baseline and the recent monthly drift in StatCounter\u0027s Linux desktop series, then use a Monte Carlo of drift plus noise plus rare reclassification jumps to compute P(August \u003e 8.00%); the weighted average of the sub-question probabilities is checked against that holistic simulation, which should dominate since all sub-questions are facets of the same time series.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will StatCounter\u0027s final worldwide desktop Linux share for July 2026 come in at 7.70% or higher (i.e., the mid-month 7.56% reading holds or rises through month-end)?",
"rationale": "August must exceed 8.00%; the starting level for July is the base from which a one-month move is measured. A higher July close makes the required August jump much smaller.",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Has the average month-over-month change in StatCounter worldwide desktop Linux share over the preceding 6 months been at least +0.20 percentage points?",
"rationale": "The required Jul\u2192Aug jump is roughly +0.4pp from 7.56%. Recent trend slope is the single best predictor; typical monthly moves are 0.05\u20130.25pp, so a strong upward trend is nearly necessary.",
"weight": 0.35
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will a single-month positive shock of \u2265+0.4pp in Linux desktop share occur, based on the historical base rate of such monthly jumps in StatCounter\u0027s series (including August seasonality and \u0027Unknown\u0027/reclassification artifacts)?",
"rationale": "Even without trend, StatCounter monthly noise and methodology/reclassification artifacts occasionally produce large jumps; this quantifies the tail path to YES.",
"weight": 0.25
},
{
"id": "sq4",
"question": "Is there an identifiable ongoing catalyst (Windows 10 EOL fallout, major OEM/government migrations, SteamOS/handheld growth) plausibly accelerating Linux desktop adoption in Q3 2026?",
"rationale": "A structural catalyst could sustain above-trend growth; absent one, mean reversion to slow drift is more likely.",
"weight": 0.1
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"StatCounter Linux desktop market share worldwide July 2026 percent",
"Linux desktop market share statcounter 2026 monthly trend",
"gs.statcounter.com os-market-share desktop worldwide 2026"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find the actual monthly StatCounter worldwide DESKTOP operating system market share values for Linux for each month from roughly January 2025 through July 2026 (list the numeric percentages month by month if possible). Also note any StatCounter methodology changes, \u0027Unknown\u0027 category shifts, or reporting of Linux crossing milestones (5%, 6%, 7%, 8%). Finally, identify current catalysts for Linux desktop adoption in 2026 such as Windows 10 end-of-support fallout, government/enterprise migrations, or SteamOS/handheld device counting.",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "Will the desktop market share of Linux exceed 8% in August 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\n# Model: Aug share = Jul close + drift + noise. Jul mid-month reading 7.56.\nrng=np.random.default_rng(0)\nN=200000\njul=rng.normal(7.60,0.12,N) # uncertainty in July final close\ndrift=rng.normal(0.15,0.10,N) # recent monthly trend in pp (to be updated with real data)\nnoise=rng.normal(0,0.15,N) # month-to-month measurement noise\nartifact=(rng.random(N)\u003c0.05)*rng.normal(0.4,0.3,N) # occasional reclassification jump\naug=jul+drift+noise+artifact\nprint(\u0027P(Aug \u003e 8.00) =\u0027, (aug\u003e8.0).mean())\nfor d in [0.05,0.10,0.20,0.30]:\n a=jul+d+noise+artifact\n print(\u0027drift\u0027,d,\u0027-\u003e P\u0027,(a\u003e8.0).mean())\nfor j in [7.45,7.56,7.70,7.85]:\n a=j+drift+noise+artifact\n print(\u0027julclose\u0027,j,\u0027-\u003e P\u0027,(a\u003e8.0).mean())",
"description": "Monte Carlo of August 2026 Linux desktop share given July base level, trend drift, monthly noise, and rare reclassification jumps; sensitivity to drift and July close."
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_days": 120,
"queries": [
"Linux desktop market share record 2026",
"Windows 10 end of support users switching to Linux 2026",
"StatCounter operating system market share statistics 2026"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq4",
"sq2"
],
"tool_name": "article_search"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-07-25T17:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nMedium:[ Linux in 2026: Why Millions Are Switching Away from Windows for Good](https://medium.com/@techinfintrix/linux-in-2026-why-millions-are-switching-away-from-windows-for-good-de104855bcdb)\n\n[](https://medium.com/@techinfintrix?source=---byline--de104855bcdb---------------------------------------)\n\n\u003e Something unusual is happening on the world\u2019s computers. Quietly, without a headline launch event or a billion-dollar marketing campaign, millions of ordinary users are walking away from Windows. Not because they have to. Not because someone told them to. But because, after years of patience wearing thin, they have finally had enough \u2014 and Linux has finally become good enough.\n\nThe article explains that past objections to the usage of Linux, such as difficulty of use or the lack of programs and games, are increasingly no longer an issue.\u0026#x20;\n\nIn mid July 2026, the market share for Linux displayed by Statcounter was 7.56%:\u0026#x20;\n\n\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 44693, \"question_id\": 44846}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if, for the month of August 2026, the desktop operating system market share worldwide of Linux is greater than 8.00%, according to the [bar chart ](https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share/desktop/worldwide/#monthly-202607-202607-bar)information presented by Statcounter, when accessed by Metaculus after August 31, 2026.\u0026#x20;\n\n## Fine Print\nINSTRUCTIONS:\u0026#x20;\n\n1. At the [resolution source](https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share/desktop/worldwide/#monthly-202607-202607-bar), click on *Edit Chart Data*.\n2. Ensure Operating System is Desktop and Chart Type is Bar.\n3. Ensure Period is Monthly.\n4. Set the the dates to the following: *From August 2026* and *To August 2026*.\u0026#x20;\n\n***\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44693) which opened on 2026-07-17 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.",
"question_type": "binary",
"title": "Will the desktop market share of Linux exceed 8% in August 2026?"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.99, Volume: $161.6K",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 4,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 31.07,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "0 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 26.18,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "16 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.11,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Monte Carlo of August 2026 Linux desktop share given July ba",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.75,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "28 articles",
"tool_name": "article_search"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "StatCounter\u0027s mid-July 2026 reading for worldwide desktop Linux share was 7.56%, requiring roughly +0.45pp to exceed 8.00% in August.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "question_description",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Monte Carlo simulation with baseline drift and noise gives P(Aug 2026 \u003e 8.00%) \u2248 0.15, rising to 0.52 if July closes at 7.85% and falling to 0.04 if July closes at 7.45%.",
"credibility": 40,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Simulation sensitivity shows outcome hinges on monthly drift: P=0.09 at +0.10pp/month drift versus P=0.33 at +0.30pp/month.",
"credibility": 40,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Reported long-run series (2.76% July 2022 \u2192 4.44% July 2024 \u2192 ~4.7% end-2025) implies average monthly gains of roughly +0.05 to +0.08pp.",
"credibility": 55,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Growth pace has accelerated: Linux took 2.2 years to move 2%\u21923% but only 0.7 years to move 3%\u21924%.",
"credibility": 55,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Search summaries report conflicting StatCounter June 2026 Linux figures of 4.39% (Linuxiac/Slashdot) and 3.09% (excluding \u0027Unknown\u0027), both far below the question\u0027s 7.56% mid-July figure.",
"credibility": 30,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "StatCounter\u0027s \u0027Unknown\u0027 OS category reportedly swelled to 16.77% in April 2026, depressing measured Linux share and creating reclassification volatility.",
"credibility": 45,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Reported month-to-month swings in 2026 (e.g., 3.16% March \u2192 2.99% April \u2192 4.39% June) indicate the series can move by \u22650.4pp in a single month.",
"credibility": 35,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Analysts attribute accelerating Linux desktop adoption to Windows 10 end-of-life (October 14, 2025) and Proton/Steam Deck gaming compatibility gains.",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "StatCounter June 2026 reportedly showed Windows desktop share at 56.55%, a multi-year low, consistent with continued share loss by Microsoft.",
"credibility": 55,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "A FOSSPost projection stated Linux could reach about 6% global desktop share by late 2026 if current trends continue.",
"credibility": 40,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "News article searches returned only unrelated content (presidential records, medical records), providing no coverage of Linux market share developments in July 2026.",
"credibility": 20,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No verified month-by-month StatCounter desktop Linux series for Jan\u2013July 2026 (needed for actual drift)",
"Unresolved conflict between reported ~4.4% June 2026 and 7.56% mid-July 2026 figures",
"No base rate for frequency of \u2265+0.4pp single-month jumps in this series",
"No data on August seasonality or StatCounter methodology/revision changes in 2026"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether the 7.56% mid-July baseline is genuine or reflects a different chart/definition",
"Final July close level, which dominates August outcome probability",
"Size and volatility of \u0027Unknown\u0027 category reclassifications",
"Whether Windows 10 EOL migration wave is still accelerating or plateauing"
],
"n_evidence": 12
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 33.83,
"plan": 28.19,
"research": 31.07,
"synthesis": 39.89
}
}