Estimate the late-August CDC count via historical July-to-August growth multipliers applied to the 1,645 July 13 baseline, then adjust for the unusually large 2026 outbreak and the large pool of pending cases; the threshold sub-questions define an implied distribution whose weighted blend yields the central estimate and uncertainty band.
## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?" → Yes: 1.00, Volume: $3.4M - "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.74, Volume: $27.3M - "Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be between 46 million and 50 million?" → Yes: 1.00, Volume: $1.3M - "Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.4M - "Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.3M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $15.2M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $17.9M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $13.1M - "Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.95, Volume: $418.3K - "Will LeBron James play for the Dallas Mavericks in 2026-27?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $1.5M
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC's ~July 23-24, 2026 surveillance update reported 4,173 laboratory-confirmed domestically acquired cyclosporiasis cases since May 1, 2026. 2. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC's confirmed count rose from 1,645 (July 13) to 4,173 (July 23), roughly 253 additional confirmed cases per day over ten days. 3. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC is aware of more than 7,400 additional cases not yet laboratory confirmed, many from Michigan and Ohio, pending further analysis. 4. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Michigan alone reported more than 7,100 cyclosporiasis cases as of July 21, 2026, described as the largest such outbreak in U.S. history. 5. [sq4 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC's national confirmed total (4,173) is far below the sum of state-reported counts (Michigan 7,100+, Illinois 408, Ohio 361+), indicating substantial reporting lag. 6. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] CDC states it is publishing weekly surveillance updates in 2026 due to the case increase, rather than its usual less frequent cadence. 7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Taylor Farms removed central-Mexico iceberg lettuce from the U.S. market on July 17 and recalled product shipped to 27 states, and HHS Secretary said the outbreak is 'under control.' 8. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CNN reported July 21 that the epidemiological curve of new cyclospora cases had not yet slowed despite the recall. 9. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] FDA said a prior positive Cyclospora test on Taylor Farms de Mexico lettuce was not confirmed, leaving the outbreak source formally unknown. 10. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo using 2019-2023 July-to-late-August CDC growth ratios (mean 2.79) applied to the 1,645 July 13 baseline gives median 5,514, P(>3,000)=0.95, P(>5,000)=0.60, P(>8,000)=0.16. 11. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The entire 2025 season totaled 1,180 domestically acquired cases as reported by CDC in January 2026, versus 4,173 already confirmed by July 23, 2026. 12. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] CDC reported 1,947 Cyclospora infections across 9 states linked to Taco Bell exposure, with illness onsets continuing through July 20, 2026. ## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?" → Yes: 1.00, Volume: $3.4M - "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.74, Volume: $27.3M - "Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be between 46 million and 50 million?" → Yes: 1.00, Volume: $1.3M - "Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.4M - "Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.3M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $15.2M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $17.9M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $13.1M - "Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.95, Volume: $418.3K - "Will LeBron James play for the Dallas Mavericks in 2026-27?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $1.5M Information gaps: - No CDC data after ~July 24, 2026; unknown August trajectory or whether epi curve peaked - No base rate for how quickly CDC converts 'pending' cases into confirmed counts within a season - Unclear whether CDC will fold Michigan/Ohio outbreak cases into the confirmed domestic total by Aug 31 - No historical precedent for a state outbreak of this size relative to CDC national count Key uncertainties: - Whether the >7,400 pending cases get confirmed and added before Aug 31 - Speed of decline in new cases after the July 17 lettuce removal - Possible CDC page format/reporting methodology change mid-season - Whether Michigan's clinically-diagnosed cases count as lab-confirmed domestic
You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.
## Question
How many U.S. cases of cyclosporiasis will occur in the 2026 season before September 1, 2026, according to the CDC?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
According to the CDC: 
> Cyclosporiasis is a gastrointestinal disease caused by the microscopic parasite *Cyclospora*. Cyclosporiasis is a [nationally notifiable disease ](https://www.cdc.gov/nndss/what-is-case-surveillance/#cdc_data_surveillance_section_3-national-notifiable-diseases-surveillance-system)and is reportable in 47 states, the District of Columbia, and New York City. Even if it is not reportable in a state, it is important for healthcare providers and the public to inform local health departments about potential cases and clusters of the disease so that they can take appropriate action to prevent additional cases.
Furthermore:
> CDC is aware that states are likely to report higher case counts of cyclosporiasis than reflected in CDC data and is working closely with states to update numbers as additional cases are confirmed. Since May 1, 2026, CDC has received reports of 1,645 confirmed domestic cases of cyclosporiasis and is aware of more than 5,100 cases that require further analysis to confirm the illness as domestically acquired cyclosporiasis. So far this year, multiple states have reported an increase in cases compared to the same period in 2025.
The 2026 outbreaks, possibly [linked](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2026/07/14/authorities-investigate-taco-bell-lettuce-multistate-cyclosporiasis-outbreak/) to lettuce or Taco Bell, have the potential to reach higher numbers than previous years. As of July 13, 2026, the number of cases stood at 1,645, while at a comparable time in 2025, the number [was](https://www.cdc.gov/han/php/notices/han00531.html) 249. Numbers for 2024 apparently were not published by CDC. In the years before then they were: 
| Season | July CDC count | August CDC count |
| ------ | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------: | -----------------: |
| 2019 | 580 on July 23 ([link](https://web.archive.org/web/20230328230137/https%3A//www.cdc.gov/parasites/cyclosporiasis/outbreaks/2019/a-050119/index.html)) | 1,696 on August 28 |
| 2020 | 779 on July 29 ([link](https://web.archive.org/web/20230328230137/https%3A//www.cdc.gov/parasites/cyclosporiasis/outbreaks/2020/seasonal/index.html)) | 1,102 on August 26 |
| 2021 | 208 on July 13 ([link](https://web.archive.org/web/20230328230137/https%3A//www.cdc.gov/parasites/cyclosporiasis/outbreaks/2021/seasonal/index.html)) | 864 on August 25 |
| 2022 | 384 on July 26 ([link](https://web.archive.org/web/20230328230137/https%3A//www.cdc.gov/parasites/cyclosporiasis/outbreaks/2022/seasonal/index.html)) | 800 on August 23 |
| 2023 | 581 on July 11 ([link](https://www.foodpoisonjournal.com/food-poisoning-information/us-cyclospora-outbreak-increases-by-371-to-581-sick-in-31-states-and-nyc/)) | 1,957 on August 31 |
`{"format": "metac_reveal_and_close_in_period", "info": {"post_id": 44675, "question_id": 44834}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as the number of cases of cyclosporiasis acquired in the United States, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention at its [Surveillance of Cyclosporiasis](https://www.cdc.gov/cyclosporiasis/php/surveillance/index.html) tracking portal, as of the latest update available on the page on August 31, 2026. 
## Fine Print
This question's information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44675) which opened on 2026-07-16 15:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.
## Range
The answer must be a number in [7000, 14000] (units: Cases).
## Sub-question decomposition (planner)
- (w=0.30) Will the CDC's Surveillance of Cyclosporiasis page, as of its latest update on August 31, 2026, report more than 3,000 domestically acquired cases for the 2026 season? — Establishes the lower bound of the plausible range; historical July-to-late-August multipliers (1.4x-4.2x) applied to th
- (w=0.30) Will the CDC report more than 5,000 domestically acquired 2026 cyclosporiasis cases as of the latest update on August 31, 2026? — Central threshold: reflects whether the ~5,100 pending/unconfirmed cases get largely reclassified as confirmed domestic
- (w=0.20) Will the CDC report more than 8,000 domestically acquired 2026 cyclosporiasis cases as of the latest update on August 31, 2026? — Upper-tail threshold capturing a scenario where the Taco Bell/lettuce-linked multistate outbreak drives an unprecedented
- (w=0.20) Will CDC's reporting cadence/methodology (e.g., delayed updates, backlog of unconfirmed cases, or a page format change) cause the August 31 posted count to substantially lag actual state-reported case totals? — The CDC explicitly notes states report higher counts than CDC data; reporting lags and confirmation backlogs are the dom
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC's ~July 23-24, 2026 surveillance update reported 4,173 laboratory-confirmed domestically acquired cyclosporiasis cases since May 1, 2026.
2. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC's confirmed count rose from 1,645 (July 13) to 4,173 (July 23), roughly 253 additional confirmed cases per day over ten days.
3. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC is aware of more than 7,400 additional cases not yet laboratory confirmed, many from Michigan and Ohio, pending further analysis.
4. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Michigan alone reported more than 7,100 cyclosporiasis cases as of July 21, 2026, described as the largest such outbreak in U.S. history.
5. [sq4 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC's national confirmed total (4,173) is far below the sum of state-reported counts (Michigan 7,100+, Illinois 408, Ohio 361+), indicating substantial reporting lag.
6. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] CDC states it is publishing weekly surveillance updates in 2026 due to the case increase, rather than its usual less frequent cadence.
7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Taylor Farms removed central-Mexico iceberg lettuce from the U.S. market on July 17 and recalled product shipped to 27 states, and HHS Secretary said the outbreak is 'under control.'
8. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CNN reported July 21 that the epidemiological curve of new cyclospora cases had not yet slowed despite the recall.
9. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] FDA said a prior positive Cyclospora test on Taylor Farms de Mexico lettuce was not confirmed, leaving the outbreak source formally unknown.
10. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo using 2019-2023 July-to-late-August CDC growth ratios (mean 2.79) applied to the 1,645 July 13 baseline gives median 5,514, P(>3,000)=0.95, P(>5,000)=0.60, P(>8,000)=0.16.
11. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The entire 2025 season totaled 1,180 domestically acquired cases as reported by CDC in January 2026, versus 4,173 already confirmed by July 23, 2026.
12. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] CDC reported 1,947 Cyclospora infections across 9 states linked to Taco Bell exposure, with illness onsets continuing through July 20, 2026.
## Cross-Market Signals
### Polymarket
- "Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?" → Yes: 1.00, Volume: $3.4M
- "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.74, Volume: $27.3M
- "Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be between 46 million and 50 million?" → Yes: 1.00, Volume: $1.3M
- "Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.4M
- "Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.3M
- "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $15.2M
- "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $17.9M
- "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $13.1M
- "Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.95, Volume: $418.3K
- "Will LeBron James play for the Dallas Mavericks in 2026-27?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $1.5M
Information gaps:
- No CDC data after ~July 24, 2026; unknown August trajectory or whether epi curve peaked
- No base rate for how quickly CDC converts 'pending' cases into confirmed counts within a season
- Unclear whether CDC will fold Michigan/Ohio outbreak cases into the confirmed domestic total by Aug 31
- No historical precedent for a state outbreak of this size relative to CDC national count
Key uncertainties:
- Whether the >7,400 pending cases get confirmed and added before Aug 31
- Speed of decline in new cases after the July 17 lettuce removal
- Possible CDC page format/reporting methodology change mid-season
- Whether Michigan's clinically-diagnosed cases count as lab-confirmed domestic
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).
(c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.
(d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.
(e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).
(f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).
## Calibration guidance
- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.
- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.
- Don't pile mass at one value — if you're tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.
- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen — don't override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.
- **Relative-return / spread questions ("how much will X's return exceed Y's").** A near-zero median is usually right, but size the TAILS to the more VOLATILE leg, not to a generic 2-3pp spread. Two broad equity indices (e.g. Nasdaq-100 vs S&P 500) do stay within roughly ±2-3pp over a two-week window. But when one leg is a commodity (crude oil, gold) or a single high-beta stock (e.g. Nvidia), the two-week realized spread regularly reaches ±10pp or more — crude-vs-equity spreads have hit ±18pp. In those cases set p10/p90 to at least ±10pp (±15pp or wider for oil) while keeping the median near the status-quo spread; the 2-3pp intuition applies only to index-vs-index.
- **Heavy-tailed one-off magnitudes (opening-weekend box office, product-launch or debut numbers).** Pre-event tracking for these routinely misses by ±40% or more, and results land both far above and far below the consensus. Do NOT treat the displayed [min, max] range as the plausible range or clamp p10/p90 to its edges: the outcome can fall outside the range in either direction (recent opening weekends resolved ~7% above a displayed ceiling in one case and roughly half the displayed floor in another). Set p10/p90 wide enough that a 2x-or-0.5x surprise versus your central estimate still lands inside the interval, and when concrete current tracking disagrees with historical/franchise base rates, weight the tracking.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution — 6-10 sentences total>",
"p10": <number>,
"p25": <number>,
"p50": <number>,
"p75": <number>,
"p90": <number>
}
Percentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 <= p25 <= p50 <= p75 <= p90).
{
"forecast": {
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC\u0027s ~July 23-24, 2026 surveillance update reported 4,173 laboratory-confirmed domestically acquired cyclosporiasis cases since May 1, 2026.\n2. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC\u0027s confirmed count rose from 1,645 (July 13) to 4,173 (July 23), roughly 253 additional confirmed cases per day over ten days.\n3. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC is aware of more than 7,400 additional cases not yet laboratory confirmed, many from Michigan and Ohio, pending further analysis.\n4. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Michigan alone reported more than 7,100 cyclosporiasis cases as of July 21, 2026, described as the largest such outbreak in U.S. history.\n5. [sq4 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC\u0027s national confirmed total (4,173) is far below the sum of state-reported counts (Michigan 7,100+, Illinois 408, Ohio 361+), indicating substantial reporting lag.\n6. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] CDC states it is publishing weekly surveillance updates in 2026 due to the case increase, rather than its usual less frequent cadence.\n7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Taylor Farms removed central-Mexico iceberg lettuce from the U.S. market on July 17 and recalled product shipped to 27 states, and HHS Secretary said the outbreak is \u0027under control.\u0027\n8. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CNN reported July 21 that the epidemiological curve of new cyclospora cases had not yet slowed despite the recall.\n9. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] FDA said a prior positive Cyclospora test on Taylor Farms de Mexico lettuce was not confirmed, leaving the outbreak source formally unknown.\n10. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo using 2019-2023 July-to-late-August CDC growth ratios (mean 2.79) applied to the 1,645 July 13 baseline gives median 5,514, P(\u003e3,000)=0.95, P(\u003e5,000)=0.60, P(\u003e8,000)=0.16.\n11. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The entire 2025 season totaled 1,180 domestically acquired cases as reported by CDC in January 2026, versus 4,173 already confirmed by July 23, 2026.\n12. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] CDC reported 1,947 Cyclospora infections across 9 states linked to Taco Bell exposure, with illness onsets continuing through July 20, 2026.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?\" \u2192 Yes: 1.00, Volume: $3.4M\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.74, Volume: $27.3M\n- \"Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be between 46 million and 50 million?\" \u2192 Yes: 1.00, Volume: $1.3M\n- \"Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.4M\n- \"Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.3M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $15.2M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $17.9M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $13.1M\n- \"Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.95, Volume: $418.3K\n- \"Will LeBron James play for the Dallas Mavericks in 2026-27?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $1.5M\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No CDC data after ~July 24, 2026; unknown August trajectory or whether epi curve peaked\n - No base rate for how quickly CDC converts \u0027pending\u0027 cases into confirmed counts within a season\n - Unclear whether CDC will fold Michigan/Ohio outbreak cases into the confirmed domestic total by Aug 31\n - No historical precedent for a state outbreak of this size relative to CDC national count\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether the \u003e7,400 pending cases get confirmed and added before Aug 31\n - Speed of decline in new cases after the July 17 lettuce removal\n - Possible CDC page format/reporting methodology change mid-season\n - Whether Michigan\u0027s clinically-diagnosed cases count as lab-confirmed domestic",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.\n\n## Question\nHow many U.S. cases of cyclosporiasis will occur in the 2026 season before September 1, 2026, according to the CDC?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nAccording to the CDC:\u0026#x20;\r\n\r\n\u003e Cyclosporiasis is a gastrointestinal disease caused by the microscopic parasite *Cyclospora*. Cyclosporiasis is a [nationally notifiable disease ](https://www.cdc.gov/nndss/what-is-case-surveillance/#cdc_data_surveillance_section_3-national-notifiable-diseases-surveillance-system)and is reportable in 47 states, the District of Columbia, and New York City. Even if it is not reportable in a state, it is important for healthcare providers and the public to inform local health departments about potential cases and clusters of the disease so that they can take appropriate action to prevent additional cases.\r\n\r\nFurthermore:\r\n\r\n\u003e CDC is aware that states are likely to report higher case counts of cyclosporiasis than reflected in CDC data and is working closely with states to update numbers as additional cases are confirmed. Since May 1, 2026, CDC has received reports of 1,645 confirmed domestic cases of cyclosporiasis and is aware of more than 5,100 cases that require further analysis to confirm the illness as domestically acquired cyclosporiasis. So far this year, multiple states have reported an increase in cases compared to the same period in 2025.\r\n\r\nThe 2026 outbreaks, possibly [linked](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2026/07/14/authorities-investigate-taco-bell-lettuce-multistate-cyclosporiasis-outbreak/) to lettuce or Taco Bell, have the potential to reach higher numbers than previous years. As of July 13, 2026, the number of cases stood at 1,645, while at a comparable time in 2025, the number [was](https://www.cdc.gov/han/php/notices/han00531.html) 249. Numbers for 2024 apparently were not published by CDC. In the years before then they were:\u0026#x20;\r\n\r\n| Season | July CDC count | August CDC count |\r\n| ------ | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------: | -----------------: |\r\n| 2019 | 580 on July 23 ([link](https://web.archive.org/web/20230328230137/https%3A//www.cdc.gov/parasites/cyclosporiasis/outbreaks/2019/a-050119/index.html)) | 1,696 on August 28 |\r\n| 2020 | 779 on July 29 ([link](https://web.archive.org/web/20230328230137/https%3A//www.cdc.gov/parasites/cyclosporiasis/outbreaks/2020/seasonal/index.html)) | 1,102 on August 26 |\r\n| 2021 | 208 on July 13 ([link](https://web.archive.org/web/20230328230137/https%3A//www.cdc.gov/parasites/cyclosporiasis/outbreaks/2021/seasonal/index.html)) | 864 on August 25 |\r\n| 2022 | 384 on July 26 ([link](https://web.archive.org/web/20230328230137/https%3A//www.cdc.gov/parasites/cyclosporiasis/outbreaks/2022/seasonal/index.html)) | 800 on August 23 |\r\n| 2023 | 581 on July 11 ([link](https://www.foodpoisonjournal.com/food-poisoning-information/us-cyclospora-outbreak-increases-by-371-to-581-sick-in-31-states-and-nyc/)) | 1,957 on August 31 |\r\n\r\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 44675, \"question_id\": 44834}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the number of cases of cyclosporiasis acquired in the United States, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention at its [Surveillance of Cyclosporiasis](https://www.cdc.gov/cyclosporiasis/php/surveillance/index.html) tracking portal, as of the latest update available on the page on August 31, 2026.\u0026#x20;\n\n## Fine Print\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44675) which opened on 2026-07-16 15:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.\n\n## Range\nThe answer must be a number in [7000, 14000] (units: Cases).\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n- (w=0.30) Will the CDC\u0027s Surveillance of Cyclosporiasis page, as of its latest update on August 31, 2026, report more than 3,000 domestically acquired cases for the 2026 season? \u2014 Establishes the lower bound of the plausible range; historical July-to-late-August multipliers (1.4x-4.2x) applied to th\n- (w=0.30) Will the CDC report more than 5,000 domestically acquired 2026 cyclosporiasis cases as of the latest update on August 31, 2026? \u2014 Central threshold: reflects whether the ~5,100 pending/unconfirmed cases get largely reclassified as confirmed domestic \n- (w=0.20) Will the CDC report more than 8,000 domestically acquired 2026 cyclosporiasis cases as of the latest update on August 31, 2026? \u2014 Upper-tail threshold capturing a scenario where the Taco Bell/lettuce-linked multistate outbreak drives an unprecedented\n- (w=0.20) Will CDC\u0027s reporting cadence/methodology (e.g., delayed updates, backlog of unconfirmed cases, or a page format change) cause the August 31 posted count to substantially lag actual state-reported case totals? \u2014 The CDC explicitly notes states report higher counts than CDC data; reporting lags and confirmation backlogs are the dom\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC\u0027s ~July 23-24, 2026 surveillance update reported 4,173 laboratory-confirmed domestically acquired cyclosporiasis cases since May 1, 2026.\n2. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC\u0027s confirmed count rose from 1,645 (July 13) to 4,173 (July 23), roughly 253 additional confirmed cases per day over ten days.\n3. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC is aware of more than 7,400 additional cases not yet laboratory confirmed, many from Michigan and Ohio, pending further analysis.\n4. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Michigan alone reported more than 7,100 cyclosporiasis cases as of July 21, 2026, described as the largest such outbreak in U.S. history.\n5. [sq4 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC\u0027s national confirmed total (4,173) is far below the sum of state-reported counts (Michigan 7,100+, Illinois 408, Ohio 361+), indicating substantial reporting lag.\n6. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] CDC states it is publishing weekly surveillance updates in 2026 due to the case increase, rather than its usual less frequent cadence.\n7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Taylor Farms removed central-Mexico iceberg lettuce from the U.S. market on July 17 and recalled product shipped to 27 states, and HHS Secretary said the outbreak is \u0027under control.\u0027\n8. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CNN reported July 21 that the epidemiological curve of new cyclospora cases had not yet slowed despite the recall.\n9. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] FDA said a prior positive Cyclospora test on Taylor Farms de Mexico lettuce was not confirmed, leaving the outbreak source formally unknown.\n10. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo using 2019-2023 July-to-late-August CDC growth ratios (mean 2.79) applied to the 1,645 July 13 baseline gives median 5,514, P(\u003e3,000)=0.95, P(\u003e5,000)=0.60, P(\u003e8,000)=0.16.\n11. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The entire 2025 season totaled 1,180 domestically acquired cases as reported by CDC in January 2026, versus 4,173 already confirmed by July 23, 2026.\n12. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] CDC reported 1,947 Cyclospora infections across 9 states linked to Taco Bell exposure, with illness onsets continuing through July 20, 2026.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?\" \u2192 Yes: 1.00, Volume: $3.4M\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.74, Volume: $27.3M\n- \"Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be between 46 million and 50 million?\" \u2192 Yes: 1.00, Volume: $1.3M\n- \"Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.4M\n- \"Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.3M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $15.2M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $17.9M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $13.1M\n- \"Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.95, Volume: $418.3K\n- \"Will LeBron James play for the Dallas Mavericks in 2026-27?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $1.5M\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No CDC data after ~July 24, 2026; unknown August trajectory or whether epi curve peaked\n - No base rate for how quickly CDC converts \u0027pending\u0027 cases into confirmed counts within a season\n - Unclear whether CDC will fold Michigan/Ohio outbreak cases into the confirmed domestic total by Aug 31\n - No historical precedent for a state outbreak of this size relative to CDC national count\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether the \u003e7,400 pending cases get confirmed and added before Aug 31\n - Speed of decline in new cases after the July 17 lettuce removal\n - Possible CDC page format/reporting methodology change mid-season\n - Whether Michigan\u0027s clinically-diagnosed cases count as lab-confirmed domestic\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).\n (c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.\n (d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.\n (e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).\n (f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.\n- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.\n- Don\u0027t pile mass at one value \u2014 if you\u0027re tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.\n- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen \u2014 don\u0027t override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.\n- **Relative-return / spread questions (\"how much will X\u0027s return exceed Y\u0027s\").** A near-zero median is usually right, but size the TAILS to the more VOLATILE leg, not to a generic 2-3pp spread. Two broad equity indices (e.g. Nasdaq-100 vs S\u0026P 500) do stay within roughly \u00b12-3pp over a two-week window. But when one leg is a commodity (crude oil, gold) or a single high-beta stock (e.g. Nvidia), the two-week realized spread regularly reaches \u00b110pp or more \u2014 crude-vs-equity spreads have hit \u00b118pp. In those cases set p10/p90 to at least \u00b110pp (\u00b115pp or wider for oil) while keeping the median near the status-quo spread; the 2-3pp intuition applies only to index-vs-index.\n- **Heavy-tailed one-off magnitudes (opening-weekend box office, product-launch or debut numbers).** Pre-event tracking for these routinely misses by \u00b140% or more, and results land both far above and far below the consensus. Do NOT treat the displayed [min, max] range as the plausible range or clamp p10/p90 to its edges: the outcome can fall outside the range in either direction (recent opening weekends resolved ~7% above a displayed ceiling in one case and roughly half the displayed floor in another). Set p10/p90 wide enough that a 2x-or-0.5x surprise versus your central estimate still lands inside the interval, and when concrete current tracking disagrees with historical/franchise base rates, weight the tracking.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution \u2014 6-10 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"p10\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p25\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p50\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p75\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p90\": \u003cnumber\u003e\n}\n\nPercentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 \u003c= p25 \u003c= p50 \u003c= p75 \u003c= p90).\n",
"models": [
"opus"
],
"p50": 9800.0,
"percentiles": {
"0.1": 7300.0,
"0.25": 8500.0,
"0.5": 9800.0,
"0.75": 11500.0,
"0.9": 13100.0
},
"rationale": "(a) About 5.5 weeks from the latest data (CDC update ~July 23-24, 2026) to the August 31 resolution snapshot. (b) Status quo, i.e., no further confirmations, would be 4,173 \u2014 below the question\u0027s 7,000 floor, so the range itself implies the resolver expects heavy backlog conversion. (c) Current trend: confirmed cases rose from 1,645 (Jul 13) to 4,173 (Jul 23), ~250/day; even with the epi curve turning after the July 17 Taylor Farms lettuce removal, backlog confirmation from Michigan (7,100+ state-reported), Ohio, Illinois and the Taco Bell-linked 1,947 cases across 9 states should keep the CDC number climbing steeply. If the 4,173 confirmed plus \u003e7,400 pending largely resolve into the confirmed domestic total, ~11,000-13,000 known cases exist already, of which CDC may have posted 70-85% by Aug 31. (d) Base rates from 2019-2023 (mid-July to late-August multipliers of 1.4x-4.2x) applied to the 4,173 July 23 figure give roughly 6,000-13,000, centering near 9,000-11,000; no liquid market signal is relevant. (e) Low scenario (~p10): the outbreak peaked sharply in mid-July, Michigan\u0027s clinically diagnosed cases are largely not lab-confirmed as domestically acquired, CDC\u0027s weekly page lags badly, and the posted figure only reaches ~7,000-7,500. (f) High scenario (~p90): Michigan/Ohio backlogs are fully folded in, transmission continued into August via other produce, and CDC posts 13,000+ (with real risk of exceeding the 14,000 ceiling). I center near 9,800 with wide tails, acknowledging both floor-pinning and ceiling-breach risk."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "health",
"n_sub_qs": 4,
"n_tools": 4,
"reasoning_approach": "Estimate the late-August CDC count via historical July-to-August growth multipliers applied to the 1,645 July 13 baseline, then adjust for the unusually large 2026 outbreak and the large pool of pending cases; the threshold sub-questions define an implied distribution whose weighted blend yields the central estimate and uncertainty band.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will the CDC\u0027s Surveillance of Cyclosporiasis page, as of its latest update on August 31, 2026, report more than 3,000 domestically acquired cases for the 2026 season?",
"rationale": "Establishes the lower bound of the plausible range; historical July-to-late-August multipliers (1.4x-4.2x) applied to the 1,645 July 13 count imply a high likelihood of exceeding 3,000.",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will the CDC report more than 5,000 domestically acquired 2026 cyclosporiasis cases as of the latest update on August 31, 2026?",
"rationale": "Central threshold: reflects whether the ~5,100 pending/unconfirmed cases get largely reclassified as confirmed domestic cases plus continued accrual through the peak season.",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will the CDC report more than 8,000 domestically acquired 2026 cyclosporiasis cases as of the latest update on August 31, 2026?",
"rationale": "Upper-tail threshold capturing a scenario where the Taco Bell/lettuce-linked multistate outbreak drives an unprecedented season far exceeding the 1,957 record (2023).",
"weight": 0.2
},
{
"id": "sq4",
"question": "Will CDC\u0027s reporting cadence/methodology (e.g., delayed updates, backlog of unconfirmed cases, or a page format change) cause the August 31 posted count to substantially lag actual state-reported case totals?",
"rationale": "The CDC explicitly notes states report higher counts than CDC data; reporting lags and confirmation backlogs are the dominant source of downside surprise relative to naive outbreak-size extrapolation.",
"weight": 0.2
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\n# Historical CDC seasonal cyclosporiasis counts: (July date-of-year, July count, late-Aug count)\nhist = [(204,580,1696),(211,779,1102),(194,208,864),(207,384,800),(192,581,1957)]\nratios = []\nfor doy, jul, aug in hist:\n # normalize July count to July 13 (doy 194) using rough exponential growth of season\n ratios.append(aug/jul)\nprint(\u0027raw Aug/Jul ratios\u0027, ratios)\nprint(\u0027mean\u0027, np.mean(ratios), \u0027median\u0027, np.median(ratios), \u0027sd\u0027, np.std(ratios))\nbase = 1645\n# adjust: July 13 is EARLY relative to most historical July snapshots -\u003e ratio should be higher\nlogr = np.log(ratios)\nsims = np.random.lognormal(np.mean(logr)+0.25, max(np.std(logr),0.35), 200000)\nout = base*sims\nfor q in [5,10,25,50,75,90,95]:\n print(q, round(np.percentile(out,q)))\nfor t in [2000,3000,4000,5000,6000,8000,10000]:\n print(\u0027P(\u003e\u0027,t,\u0027)\u0027, round((out\u003et).mean(),3))\n",
"description": "Monte Carlo of 2026 late-August CDC cyclosporiasis count using historical July-to-August growth ratios applied to the 1,645 July 13 baseline."
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
},
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"CDC cyclosporiasis 2026 surveillance case count update",
"cyclosporiasis outbreak 2026 cases lettuce Taco Bell latest",
"CDC Cyclospora 2026 domestically acquired cases confirmed number"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find the most recent CDC \u0027Surveillance of Cyclosporiasis\u0027 page figures for the 2026 season: number of confirmed domestically acquired cases, number of cases pending confirmation, date of last update, and the update cadence (weekly/biweekly). Also find any news about the multistate 2026 cyclosporiasis outbreak linked to lettuce/Taco Bell, state-level counts, and whether CDC is reclassifying the ~5,100 pending cases.",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "How many U.S. cases of cyclosporiasis will occur in the 2026 season before September 1, 2026, according to the CDC?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_days": 60,
"queries": [
"cyclosporiasis outbreak 2026 CDC case count",
"Cyclospora lettuce outbreak states cases",
"CDC parasite outbreak salad greens 2026"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "article_search"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-07-25T15:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nAccording to the CDC:\u0026#x20;\r\n\r\n\u003e Cyclosporiasis is a gastrointestinal disease caused by the microscopic parasite *Cyclospora*. Cyclosporiasis is a [nationally notifiable disease ](https://www.cdc.gov/nndss/what-is-case-surveillance/#cdc_data_surveillance_section_3-national-notifiable-diseases-surveillance-system)and is reportable in 47 states, the District of Columbia, and New York City. Even if it is not reportable in a state, it is important for healthcare providers and the public to inform local health departments about potential cases and clusters of the disease so that they can take appropriate action to prevent additional cases.\r\n\r\nFurthermore:\r\n\r\n\u003e CDC is aware that states are likely to report higher case counts of cyclosporiasis than reflected in CDC data and is working closely with states to update numbers as additional cases are confirmed. Since May 1, 2026, CDC has received reports of 1,645 confirmed domestic cases of cyclosporiasis and is aware of more than 5,100 cases that require further analysis to confirm the illness as domestically acquired cyclosporiasis. So far this year, multiple states have reported an increase in cases compared to the same period in 2025.\r\n\r\nThe 2026 outbreaks, possibly [linked](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2026/07/14/authorities-investigate-taco-bell-lettuce-multistate-cyclosporiasis-outbreak/) to lettuce or Taco Bell, have the potential to reach higher numbers than previous years. As of July 13, 2026, the number of cases stood at 1,645, while at a comparable time in 2025, the number [was](https://www.cdc.gov/han/php/notices/han00531.html) 249. Numbers for 2024 apparently were not published by CDC. In the years before then they were:\u0026#x20;\r\n\r\n| Season | July CDC count | August CDC count |\r\n| ------ | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------: | -----------------: |\r\n| 2019 | 580 on July 23 ([link](https://web.archive.org/web/20230328230137/https%3A//www.cdc.gov/parasites/cyclosporiasis/outbreaks/2019/a-050119/index.html)) | 1,696 on August 28 |\r\n| 2020 | 779 on July 29 ([link](https://web.archive.org/web/20230328230137/https%3A//www.cdc.gov/parasites/cyclosporiasis/outbreaks/2020/seasonal/index.html)) | 1,102 on August 26 |\r\n| 2021 | 208 on July 13 ([link](https://web.archive.org/web/20230328230137/https%3A//www.cdc.gov/parasites/cyclosporiasis/outbreaks/2021/seasonal/index.html)) | 864 on August 25 |\r\n| 2022 | 384 on July 26 ([link](https://web.archive.org/web/20230328230137/https%3A//www.cdc.gov/parasites/cyclosporiasis/outbreaks/2022/seasonal/index.html)) | 800 on August 23 |\r\n| 2023 | 581 on July 11 ([link](https://www.foodpoisonjournal.com/food-poisoning-information/us-cyclospora-outbreak-increases-by-371-to-581-sick-in-31-states-and-nyc/)) | 1,957 on August 31 |\r\n\r\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 44675, \"question_id\": 44834}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the number of cases of cyclosporiasis acquired in the United States, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention at its [Surveillance of Cyclosporiasis](https://www.cdc.gov/cyclosporiasis/php/surveillance/index.html) tracking portal, as of the latest update available on the page on August 31, 2026.\u0026#x20;\n\n## Fine Print\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44675) which opened on 2026-07-16 15:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.",
"open_lower": true,
"open_upper": true,
"q_max": 14000,
"q_min": 7000,
"question_type": "numeric",
"title": "How many U.S. cases of cyclosporiasis will occur in the 2026 season before September 1, 2026, according to the CDC?",
"units": "Cases"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?\" \u2192 Yes: 1.00, Volume: $3.4M\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.74, Volume: $27.3M\n- \"Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be between 46 million and 50 million?\" \u2192 Yes: 1.00, Volume: $1.3M\n- \"Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.4M\n- \"Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.3M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $15.2M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $17.9M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $13.1M\n- \"Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.95, Volume: $418.3K\n- \"Will LeBron James play for the Dallas Mavericks in 2026-27?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $1.5M",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 4,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 0.17,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Monte Carlo of 2026 late-August CDC cyclosporiasis count usi",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 28.11,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "0 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 26.16,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "14 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.56,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "24 articles",
"tool_name": "article_search"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "CDC\u0027s ~July 23-24, 2026 surveillance update reported 4,173 laboratory-confirmed domestically acquired cyclosporiasis cases since May 1, 2026.",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "CDC\u0027s confirmed count rose from 1,645 (July 13) to 4,173 (July 23), roughly 253 additional confirmed cases per day over ten days.",
"credibility": 88,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "CDC is aware of more than 7,400 additional cases not yet laboratory confirmed, many from Michigan and Ohio, pending further analysis.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Michigan alone reported more than 7,100 cyclosporiasis cases as of July 21, 2026, described as the largest such outbreak in U.S. history.",
"credibility": 88,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "CDC\u0027s national confirmed total (4,173) is far below the sum of state-reported counts (Michigan 7,100+, Illinois 408, Ohio 361+), indicating substantial reporting lag.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "CDC states it is publishing weekly surveillance updates in 2026 due to the case increase, rather than its usual less frequent cadence.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "Taylor Farms removed central-Mexico iceberg lettuce from the U.S. market on July 17 and recalled product shipped to 27 states, and HHS Secretary said the outbreak is \u0027under control.\u0027",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "CNN reported July 21 that the epidemiological curve of new cyclospora cases had not yet slowed despite the recall.",
"credibility": 78,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "FDA said a prior positive Cyclospora test on Taylor Farms de Mexico lettuce was not confirmed, leaving the outbreak source formally unknown.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Monte Carlo using 2019-2023 July-to-late-August CDC growth ratios (mean 2.79) applied to the 1,645 July 13 baseline gives median 5,514, P(\u003e3,000)=0.95, P(\u003e5,000)=0.60, P(\u003e8,000)=0.16.",
"credibility": 40,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "The entire 2025 season totaled 1,180 domestically acquired cases as reported by CDC in January 2026, versus 4,173 already confirmed by July 23, 2026.",
"credibility": 88,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "CDC reported 1,947 Cyclospora infections across 9 states linked to Taco Bell exposure, with illness onsets continuing through July 20, 2026.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No CDC data after ~July 24, 2026; unknown August trajectory or whether epi curve peaked",
"No base rate for how quickly CDC converts \u0027pending\u0027 cases into confirmed counts within a season",
"Unclear whether CDC will fold Michigan/Ohio outbreak cases into the confirmed domestic total by Aug 31",
"No historical precedent for a state outbreak of this size relative to CDC national count"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether the \u003e7,400 pending cases get confirmed and added before Aug 31",
"Speed of decline in new cases after the July 17 lettuce removal",
"Possible CDC page format/reporting methodology change mid-season",
"Whether Michigan\u0027s clinically-diagnosed cases count as lab-confirmed domestic"
],
"n_evidence": 12
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 27.48,
"plan": 26.14,
"research": 28.11,
"synthesis": 32.15
}
}