Anchor the forecast on the latest Silver Bulletin 'approve' level (~40-41 given net -17), then use the sub-question probabilities on drift direction, move magnitude, and shock risk to set the median and spread of a roughly normal-with-fat-tails distribution centered slightly above the mid-July anchor. Weighted averaging of the correlated sub-question signals adjusts the central estimate and tail width rather than multiplying independent events.
## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.95, Volume: $148.1K - "Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.94, Volume: $396.4K - "Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?" → Yes: 0.03, Volume: $9.3M
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Silver Bulletin average showed Trump approval at 40% as of July 20, 2026, up from a late-May low near 38%. 2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] As of July 24, 2026, Silver Bulletin net approval was -17.4, versus -17.0 reported around July 15 and a May low of -20.2. 3. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | RECENT] Net approval improved from -18.5 (mid-June) to -17.9 (early July) to -17.0 (mid-July), a roughly 1.5-point gain over a month. 4. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | RECENT] Silver Bulletin analyst noted part of the July uptick was driven by individual pollsters with far-better-than-average results, including a massive outlier (Talker/Scripps -1). 5. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | DOWN | RECENT] A separate multi-pollster monthly aggregate put July 2026 at 39.4% approve / 57.2% disapprove (-17.8 net), slightly below Silver's figure. 6. [sq2 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 95 | DOWN | RECENT] CPI YoY is roughly +3.5% (index 332.57, +11.13 points YoY) and Michigan consumer sentiment is 44.8, down 15.9 points YoY. 7. [sq2 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 95 | UP | RECENT] Unemployment stable at 4.2% (June 2026) and payrolls up 442k YoY, indicating no acute labor-market deterioration. 8. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo random-walk models with sd 0.6-1.0 and drift -0.3 to +0.6 give P(approve >= 41.0) ranging from 0.16 to 0.69, centered near 0.30-0.40 for zero drift. 9. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | RECENT] Silver's 2026 tracker moved from ~52% (Jan 2025 start) to 39.7% in late March, ~38% in late May, ~40% in July, implying month-to-month swings often near or above 1 point. 10. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] A US-Iran war earlier in 2026 caused a gas-price spike blamed for pushing approval below 40%, and a subsequent 'Iran deal' was cited in a favorable J.L. Partners poll. 11. [sq4 | web_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Trump's approval is heading into the 2026 midterm campaign with independent approval at 34%, below 2018's pre-wave 36%. 12. [sq4 | claude_news | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] News searches returned no specific reported major approval-moving event (shock, escalation, scandal, or landmark legislation) between July 15 and the research date. ## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.95, Volume: $148.1K - "Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.94, Volume: $396.4K - "Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?" → Yes: 0.03, Volume: $9.3M Information gaps: - No direct read of the Silver Bulletin CSV 'approve' column for mid-July/August 2026 - No base rate for typical 30-day absolute change in the Silver Bulletin average - No news coverage after ~July 24, 2026 (blind for the final three weeks) - No August 2026 CPI/gas-price or event calendar data Key uncertainties: - Whether the July uptick was outlier-driven noise that mean-reverts - Exact mid-July anchor level (39.4 vs 40.0 vs 41.0) - Gas prices / inflation trajectory into August - Possibility of an unforeseen shock or midterm-season salience shift
You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.
## Question
What will be Donald Trump's approval rating on August 14, 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
According to the [resolution source](https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin): 
> **Updated July 15, 2026**
> **Donald Trump’s net approval rating is up to -17**. That’s up from -17.9 one week ago and -18.5 one month ago. In fact, Trump’s net approval rating is currently higher than it’s been since mid-April.
> Some of this uptick is being driven by individual pollsters showing far better than average results for Trump. [J.L. Partners released a Trump -6 result recently](https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-15921233/trump-approval-bounces-iran-deal.html) and [Talker Research/Scripps](https://www.scrippsnews.com/politics/scripps-news-poll-americans-excited-to-celebrate-july-4-but-divided-on-trumps-role) News released a Trump -1 result right before Independence Day. It goes without saying that the latter is a massive outlier, but many of the most influential polls in our average have Trump’s approval rating right around -17: 
>  
> [Quinnipiac](https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3961)
>  
> : net -17
> [Independent Center](https://independentcentervoice.com/insights/june-2026-national-survey-on-independent-candidates)
>  
> : -16
> [TIPP](https://tippinsights.com/trump-gets-a-july-bounce-in-voter-favorability-but-will-it-help-gop-candidates-in-midterms-i-i-tipp-poll/#google_vignette)
>  
> : -16
> [Echelon Insights](https://echeloninsights.com/hubfs/_Media%20for%20Insights%20Blog/Echelon%20Insights%20America%20250%20Survey%20Topline%20-%20External.pdf)
>  
> : -17
> Trump certainly still isn’t popular, but there does seem to have been a slight reversion from his all-time approval low in May.
>  
> *-EMD, 7/6/26*\*\*
`{"format": "metac_reveal_and_close_in_period", "info": {"post_id": 44674, "question_id": 44833}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as the approval rating for Donald Trump shown at the Silver Bulletin's [How popular is Donald Trump?](https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin) tracker for August 14, 2026, when accessed by Metaculus on or after August 15, 2026.
## Fine Print
Between the value shown in the chart and the csv file under the chart ("Get the data"), the csv file takes precedence. See the "approve" column in the csv.
***
This question's information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44674) which opened on 2026-07-16 12:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.
## Range
The answer must be a number in [33.95, 46.05] (units: %).
## Sub-question decomposition (planner)
- (w=0.30) Will the Silver Bulletin 'approve' value for Donald Trump on August 14, 2026 be at or above 41.0%? — Anchors the central level of the distribution; with net approval around -17 in mid-July 2026, approve is likely near 40-
- (w=0.30) Will the approve value on August 14, 2026 be higher than the approve value shown for mid-July 2026 (i.e., will the recent upward drift continue)? — Silver Bulletin averages are highly autocorrelated; the sign of the 30-day drift is the main driver of whether the answe
- (w=0.20) Will the absolute change in the approve value between mid-July and August 14, 2026 exceed 1.0 percentage point? — Calibrates the width of the distribution — historically 30-day moves in this smoothed average are usually well under 1.5
- (w=0.20) Will a major approval-moving event (economic shock, military conflict escalation, major scandal, or high-salience legislation) occur between July 15 and August 14, 2026? — Tail risk driver: only a salient shock is likely to push approve outside roughly 39-42, so the probability of such an ev
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Silver Bulletin average showed Trump approval at 40% as of July 20, 2026, up from a late-May low near 38%.
2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] As of July 24, 2026, Silver Bulletin net approval was -17.4, versus -17.0 reported around July 15 and a May low of -20.2.
3. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | RECENT] Net approval improved from -18.5 (mid-June) to -17.9 (early July) to -17.0 (mid-July), a roughly 1.5-point gain over a month.
4. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | RECENT] Silver Bulletin analyst noted part of the July uptick was driven by individual pollsters with far-better-than-average results, including a massive outlier (Talker/Scripps -1).
5. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | DOWN | RECENT] A separate multi-pollster monthly aggregate put July 2026 at 39.4% approve / 57.2% disapprove (-17.8 net), slightly below Silver's figure.
6. [sq2 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 95 | DOWN | RECENT] CPI YoY is roughly +3.5% (index 332.57, +11.13 points YoY) and Michigan consumer sentiment is 44.8, down 15.9 points YoY.
7. [sq2 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 95 | UP | RECENT] Unemployment stable at 4.2% (June 2026) and payrolls up 442k YoY, indicating no acute labor-market deterioration.
8. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo random-walk models with sd 0.6-1.0 and drift -0.3 to +0.6 give P(approve >= 41.0) ranging from 0.16 to 0.69, centered near 0.30-0.40 for zero drift.
9. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | RECENT] Silver's 2026 tracker moved from ~52% (Jan 2025 start) to 39.7% in late March, ~38% in late May, ~40% in July, implying month-to-month swings often near or above 1 point.
10. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] A US-Iran war earlier in 2026 caused a gas-price spike blamed for pushing approval below 40%, and a subsequent 'Iran deal' was cited in a favorable J.L. Partners poll.
11. [sq4 | web_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Trump's approval is heading into the 2026 midterm campaign with independent approval at 34%, below 2018's pre-wave 36%.
12. [sq4 | claude_news | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] News searches returned no specific reported major approval-moving event (shock, escalation, scandal, or landmark legislation) between July 15 and the research date.
## Cross-Market Signals
### Polymarket
- "Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.95, Volume: $148.1K
- "Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.94, Volume: $396.4K
- "Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?" → Yes: 0.03, Volume: $9.3M
Information gaps:
- No direct read of the Silver Bulletin CSV 'approve' column for mid-July/August 2026
- No base rate for typical 30-day absolute change in the Silver Bulletin average
- No news coverage after ~July 24, 2026 (blind for the final three weeks)
- No August 2026 CPI/gas-price or event calendar data
Key uncertainties:
- Whether the July uptick was outlier-driven noise that mean-reverts
- Exact mid-July anchor level (39.4 vs 40.0 vs 41.0)
- Gas prices / inflation trajectory into August
- Possibility of an unforeseen shock or midterm-season salience shift
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).
(c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.
(d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.
(e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).
(f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).
## Calibration guidance
- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.
- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.
- Don't pile mass at one value — if you're tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.
- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen — don't override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.
- **Relative-return / spread questions ("how much will X's return exceed Y's").** A near-zero median is usually right, but size the TAILS to the more VOLATILE leg, not to a generic 2-3pp spread. Two broad equity indices (e.g. Nasdaq-100 vs S&P 500) do stay within roughly ±2-3pp over a two-week window. But when one leg is a commodity (crude oil, gold) or a single high-beta stock (e.g. Nvidia), the two-week realized spread regularly reaches ±10pp or more — crude-vs-equity spreads have hit ±18pp. In those cases set p10/p90 to at least ±10pp (±15pp or wider for oil) while keeping the median near the status-quo spread; the 2-3pp intuition applies only to index-vs-index.
- **Heavy-tailed one-off magnitudes (opening-weekend box office, product-launch or debut numbers).** Pre-event tracking for these routinely misses by ±40% or more, and results land both far above and far below the consensus. Do NOT treat the displayed [min, max] range as the plausible range or clamp p10/p90 to its edges: the outcome can fall outside the range in either direction (recent opening weekends resolved ~7% above a displayed ceiling in one case and roughly half the displayed floor in another). Set p10/p90 wide enough that a 2x-or-0.5x surprise versus your central estimate still lands inside the interval, and when concrete current tracking disagrees with historical/franchise base rates, weight the tracking.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution — 6-10 sentences total>",
"p10": <number>,
"p25": <number>,
"p50": <number>,
"p75": <number>,
"p90": <number>
}
Percentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 <= p25 <= p50 <= p75 <= p90).
{
"forecast": {
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Silver Bulletin average showed Trump approval at 40% as of July 20, 2026, up from a late-May low near 38%.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] As of July 24, 2026, Silver Bulletin net approval was -17.4, versus -17.0 reported around July 15 and a May low of -20.2.\n3. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | RECENT] Net approval improved from -18.5 (mid-June) to -17.9 (early July) to -17.0 (mid-July), a roughly 1.5-point gain over a month.\n4. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | RECENT] Silver Bulletin analyst noted part of the July uptick was driven by individual pollsters with far-better-than-average results, including a massive outlier (Talker/Scripps -1).\n5. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | DOWN | RECENT] A separate multi-pollster monthly aggregate put July 2026 at 39.4% approve / 57.2% disapprove (-17.8 net), slightly below Silver\u0027s figure.\n6. [sq2 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 95 | DOWN | RECENT] CPI YoY is roughly +3.5% (index 332.57, +11.13 points YoY) and Michigan consumer sentiment is 44.8, down 15.9 points YoY.\n7. [sq2 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 95 | UP | RECENT] Unemployment stable at 4.2% (June 2026) and payrolls up 442k YoY, indicating no acute labor-market deterioration.\n8. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo random-walk models with sd 0.6-1.0 and drift -0.3 to +0.6 give P(approve \u003e= 41.0) ranging from 0.16 to 0.69, centered near 0.30-0.40 for zero drift.\n9. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | RECENT] Silver\u0027s 2026 tracker moved from ~52% (Jan 2025 start) to 39.7% in late March, ~38% in late May, ~40% in July, implying month-to-month swings often near or above 1 point.\n10. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] A US-Iran war earlier in 2026 caused a gas-price spike blamed for pushing approval below 40%, and a subsequent \u0027Iran deal\u0027 was cited in a favorable J.L. Partners poll.\n11. [sq4 | web_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Trump\u0027s approval is heading into the 2026 midterm campaign with independent approval at 34%, below 2018\u0027s pre-wave 36%.\n12. [sq4 | claude_news | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] News searches returned no specific reported major approval-moving event (shock, escalation, scandal, or landmark legislation) between July 15 and the research date.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.95, Volume: $148.1K\n- \"Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.94, Volume: $396.4K\n- \"Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.03, Volume: $9.3M\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No direct read of the Silver Bulletin CSV \u0027approve\u0027 column for mid-July/August 2026\n - No base rate for typical 30-day absolute change in the Silver Bulletin average\n - No news coverage after ~July 24, 2026 (blind for the final three weeks)\n - No August 2026 CPI/gas-price or event calendar data\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether the July uptick was outlier-driven noise that mean-reverts\n - Exact mid-July anchor level (39.4 vs 40.0 vs 41.0)\n - Gas prices / inflation trajectory into August\n - Possibility of an unforeseen shock or midterm-season salience shift",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.\n\n## Question\nWhat will be Donald Trump\u0027s approval rating on August 14, 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nAccording to the [resolution source](https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin):\u0026#x20;\n\n\u003e **Updated July 15, 2026**\n\n\u003e **Donald Trump\u2019s net approval rating is up to -17**. That\u2019s up from -17.9 one week ago and -18.5 one month ago. In fact, Trump\u2019s net approval rating is currently higher than it\u2019s been since mid-April.\n\n\u003e Some of this uptick is being driven by individual pollsters showing far better than average results for Trump. [J.L. Partners released a Trump -6 result recently](https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-15921233/trump-approval-bounces-iran-deal.html) and [Talker Research/Scripps](https://www.scrippsnews.com/politics/scripps-news-poll-americans-excited-to-celebrate-july-4-but-divided-on-trumps-role) News released a Trump -1 result right before Independence Day. It goes without saying that the latter is a massive outlier, but many of the most influential polls in our average have Trump\u2019s approval rating right around -17:\u0026#x20;\n\u003e \u0026#x20;\n\u003e [Quinnipiac](https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3961)\n\u003e \u0026#x20;\n\u003e : net -17\n\n\u003e [Independent Center](https://independentcentervoice.com/insights/june-2026-national-survey-on-independent-candidates)\n\u003e \u0026#x20;\n\u003e : -16\n\n\u003e [TIPP](https://tippinsights.com/trump-gets-a-july-bounce-in-voter-favorability-but-will-it-help-gop-candidates-in-midterms-i-i-tipp-poll/#google_vignette)\n\u003e \u0026#x20;\n\u003e : -16\n\n\u003e [Echelon Insights](https://echeloninsights.com/hubfs/_Media%20for%20Insights%20Blog/Echelon%20Insights%20America%20250%20Survey%20Topline%20-%20External.pdf)\n\u003e \u0026#x20;\n\u003e : -17\n\n\u003e Trump certainly still isn\u2019t popular, but there does seem to have been a slight reversion from his all-time approval low in May.\n\u003e \u0026#x20;\n\u003e *-EMD, 7/6/26*\\*\\*\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 44674, \"question_id\": 44833}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the approval rating for Donald Trump shown at the Silver Bulletin\u0027s [How popular is Donald Trump?](https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin) tracker for August 14, 2026, when accessed by Metaculus on or after August 15, 2026.\n\n## Fine Print\nBetween the value shown in the chart and the csv file under the chart (\"Get the data\"), the csv file takes precedence. See the \"approve\" column in the csv.\n\n***\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44674) which opened on 2026-07-16 12:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.\n\n## Range\nThe answer must be a number in [33.95, 46.05] (units: %).\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n- (w=0.30) Will the Silver Bulletin \u0027approve\u0027 value for Donald Trump on August 14, 2026 be at or above 41.0%? \u2014 Anchors the central level of the distribution; with net approval around -17 in mid-July 2026, approve is likely near 40-\n- (w=0.30) Will the approve value on August 14, 2026 be higher than the approve value shown for mid-July 2026 (i.e., will the recent upward drift continue)? \u2014 Silver Bulletin averages are highly autocorrelated; the sign of the 30-day drift is the main driver of whether the answe\n- (w=0.20) Will the absolute change in the approve value between mid-July and August 14, 2026 exceed 1.0 percentage point? \u2014 Calibrates the width of the distribution \u2014 historically 30-day moves in this smoothed average are usually well under 1.5\n- (w=0.20) Will a major approval-moving event (economic shock, military conflict escalation, major scandal, or high-salience legislation) occur between July 15 and August 14, 2026? \u2014 Tail risk driver: only a salient shock is likely to push approve outside roughly 39-42, so the probability of such an ev\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Silver Bulletin average showed Trump approval at 40% as of July 20, 2026, up from a late-May low near 38%.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] As of July 24, 2026, Silver Bulletin net approval was -17.4, versus -17.0 reported around July 15 and a May low of -20.2.\n3. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | RECENT] Net approval improved from -18.5 (mid-June) to -17.9 (early July) to -17.0 (mid-July), a roughly 1.5-point gain over a month.\n4. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | RECENT] Silver Bulletin analyst noted part of the July uptick was driven by individual pollsters with far-better-than-average results, including a massive outlier (Talker/Scripps -1).\n5. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | DOWN | RECENT] A separate multi-pollster monthly aggregate put July 2026 at 39.4% approve / 57.2% disapprove (-17.8 net), slightly below Silver\u0027s figure.\n6. [sq2 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 95 | DOWN | RECENT] CPI YoY is roughly +3.5% (index 332.57, +11.13 points YoY) and Michigan consumer sentiment is 44.8, down 15.9 points YoY.\n7. [sq2 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 95 | UP | RECENT] Unemployment stable at 4.2% (June 2026) and payrolls up 442k YoY, indicating no acute labor-market deterioration.\n8. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo random-walk models with sd 0.6-1.0 and drift -0.3 to +0.6 give P(approve \u003e= 41.0) ranging from 0.16 to 0.69, centered near 0.30-0.40 for zero drift.\n9. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | RECENT] Silver\u0027s 2026 tracker moved from ~52% (Jan 2025 start) to 39.7% in late March, ~38% in late May, ~40% in July, implying month-to-month swings often near or above 1 point.\n10. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] A US-Iran war earlier in 2026 caused a gas-price spike blamed for pushing approval below 40%, and a subsequent \u0027Iran deal\u0027 was cited in a favorable J.L. Partners poll.\n11. [sq4 | web_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Trump\u0027s approval is heading into the 2026 midterm campaign with independent approval at 34%, below 2018\u0027s pre-wave 36%.\n12. [sq4 | claude_news | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] News searches returned no specific reported major approval-moving event (shock, escalation, scandal, or landmark legislation) between July 15 and the research date.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.95, Volume: $148.1K\n- \"Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.94, Volume: $396.4K\n- \"Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.03, Volume: $9.3M\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No direct read of the Silver Bulletin CSV \u0027approve\u0027 column for mid-July/August 2026\n - No base rate for typical 30-day absolute change in the Silver Bulletin average\n - No news coverage after ~July 24, 2026 (blind for the final three weeks)\n - No August 2026 CPI/gas-price or event calendar data\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether the July uptick was outlier-driven noise that mean-reverts\n - Exact mid-July anchor level (39.4 vs 40.0 vs 41.0)\n - Gas prices / inflation trajectory into August\n - Possibility of an unforeseen shock or midterm-season salience shift\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).\n (c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.\n (d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.\n (e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).\n (f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.\n- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.\n- Don\u0027t pile mass at one value \u2014 if you\u0027re tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.\n- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen \u2014 don\u0027t override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.\n- **Relative-return / spread questions (\"how much will X\u0027s return exceed Y\u0027s\").** A near-zero median is usually right, but size the TAILS to the more VOLATILE leg, not to a generic 2-3pp spread. Two broad equity indices (e.g. Nasdaq-100 vs S\u0026P 500) do stay within roughly \u00b12-3pp over a two-week window. But when one leg is a commodity (crude oil, gold) or a single high-beta stock (e.g. Nvidia), the two-week realized spread regularly reaches \u00b110pp or more \u2014 crude-vs-equity spreads have hit \u00b118pp. In those cases set p10/p90 to at least \u00b110pp (\u00b115pp or wider for oil) while keeping the median near the status-quo spread; the 2-3pp intuition applies only to index-vs-index.\n- **Heavy-tailed one-off magnitudes (opening-weekend box office, product-launch or debut numbers).** Pre-event tracking for these routinely misses by \u00b140% or more, and results land both far above and far below the consensus. Do NOT treat the displayed [min, max] range as the plausible range or clamp p10/p90 to its edges: the outcome can fall outside the range in either direction (recent opening weekends resolved ~7% above a displayed ceiling in one case and roughly half the displayed floor in another). Set p10/p90 wide enough that a 2x-or-0.5x surprise versus your central estimate still lands inside the interval, and when concrete current tracking disagrees with historical/franchise base rates, weight the tracking.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution \u2014 6-10 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"p10\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p25\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p50\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p75\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p90\": \u003cnumber\u003e\n}\n\nPercentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 \u003c= p25 \u003c= p50 \u003c= p75 \u003c= p90).\n",
"models": [
"opus"
],
"p50": 40.1,
"percentiles": {
"0.1": 38.9,
"0.25": 39.6,
"0.5": 40.1,
"0.75": 40.7,
"0.9": 41.35
},
"rationale": "(a) About three weeks elapse between the latest data I have (Silver Bulletin ~July 20-24, 2026) and the August 14, 2026 resolution date. (b) Status quo: the tracker showed approve ~40% on July 20 with net -17.4 on July 24, so if nothing changes the answer is ~40.0-40.3. (c) The recent trend is ambiguous: net improved from -18.5 (mid-June) to -17.0 (mid-July) but then slipped back to -17.4 by July 24, suggesting the July uptick was partly outlier-driven (Talker/Scripps -1, J.L. Partners -6) and is mean-reverting; extrapolating the flat-to-slightly-negative recent drift gives ~39.8-40.2. (d) Base rates: Silver\u0027s smoothed average moves slowly, with typical 30-day absolute changes of ~0.5-1.0 pt and a 2026 range roughly 38-41; Monte Carlo with sd 0.6-1.0 puts P(approve\u003e=41) near 0.25-0.35. Macro cross-currents are mixed (CPI ~3.5% and sentiment weak, but unemployment stable at 4.2%), and no identified approval-moving shock has occurred. (e) Low scenario (~p10): renewed gas/inflation pain or a midterm-season scandal pushes approval back toward its May low, ~38.9-39.2. (f) High scenario (~p90): the Iran-deal-driven improvement consolidates, inflation cools, and approval drifts to ~41.3-41.5, its best level since April. I center just below the status quo at 40.1 to reflect modest mean reversion of the outlier-driven July bump, with fairly wide but not extreme tails given the heavy smoothing of the average."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "politics",
"n_sub_qs": 4,
"n_tools": 4,
"reasoning_approach": "Anchor the forecast on the latest Silver Bulletin \u0027approve\u0027 level (~40-41 given net -17), then use the sub-question probabilities on drift direction, move magnitude, and shock risk to set the median and spread of a roughly normal-with-fat-tails distribution centered slightly above the mid-July anchor. Weighted averaging of the correlated sub-question signals adjusts the central estimate and tail width rather than multiplying independent events.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will the Silver Bulletin \u0027approve\u0027 value for Donald Trump on August 14, 2026 be at or above 41.0%?",
"rationale": "Anchors the central level of the distribution; with net approval around -17 in mid-July 2026, approve is likely near 40-41, so this threshold tests whether the recent uptick continues into a higher band.",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will the approve value on August 14, 2026 be higher than the approve value shown for mid-July 2026 (i.e., will the recent upward drift continue)?",
"rationale": "Silver Bulletin averages are highly autocorrelated; the sign of the 30-day drift is the main driver of whether the answer lands above or below the current anchor.",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will the absolute change in the approve value between mid-July and August 14, 2026 exceed 1.0 percentage point?",
"rationale": "Calibrates the width of the distribution \u2014 historically 30-day moves in this smoothed average are usually well under 1.5 points absent a major shock.",
"weight": 0.2
},
{
"id": "sq4",
"question": "Will a major approval-moving event (economic shock, military conflict escalation, major scandal, or high-salience legislation) occur between July 15 and August 14, 2026?",
"rationale": "Tail risk driver: only a salient shock is likely to push approve outside roughly 39-42, so the probability of such an event sets the tail mass.",
"weight": 0.2
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"Silver Bulletin Trump approval rating tracker July 2026 approve disapprove",
"Nate Silver Trump net approval July 2026 -17",
"Trump approval rating average July 2026 poll"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find the most recent Silver Bulletin (natesilver.net) Trump approval tracker readings for June-July 2026, specifically the \u0027approve\u0027 percentage level (not just net), the direction of movement over the past 4-8 weeks, and any recent individual polls (Quinnipiac, Gallup, YouGov/Economist, Marquette, AP-NORC, Fox) released in July 2026. Also note any major news events in July 2026 (economy, inflation, Iran/foreign policy, immigration enforcement, Epstein files, tariffs, midterm politics) that could shift Trump\u0027s approval before mid-August 2026.",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "What will be Donald Trump\u0027s approval rating on August 14, 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\nfrom scipy import stats\nnp.random.seed(0)\n# Historical behavior of smoothed presidential approval averages (Silver Bulletin / 538 style):\n# 30-day changes in the approve percentage are small and mean-reverting.\n# Empirically for Trump term 2 (Jan 2025 - Jul 2026), monthly changes in approve have\n# mostly fallen within +/- 1.5 pts, sd roughly 0.8-1.0 pts.\nanchor = 40.7 # approx approve level consistent with net -17 (approve ~40.5, disapprove ~57.5)\nfor sd in [0.6, 0.8, 1.0, 1.3]:\n for drift in [-0.3, 0.0, 0.3, 0.6]:\n sims = anchor + drift + np.random.normal(0, sd, 200000)\n print(f\"sd={sd} drift={drift:+.1f} -\u003e mean {sims.mean():.2f} | P(\u003e=41)={np.mean(sims\u003e=41):.3f} | 10th {np.percentile(sims,10):.2f} 25th {np.percentile(sims,25):.2f} 50th {np.percentile(sims,50):.2f} 75th {np.percentile(sims,75):.2f} 90th {np.percentile(sims,90):.2f}\")\nprint()\n# Fat-tailed version to account for shock risk (t-dist with 4 df scaled)\nt = stats.t.rvs(4, size=200000)\nt = t/np.sqrt(4/2)\nfor sd in [0.8, 1.0]:\n sims = anchor + 0.2 + sd*t\n print(f\"fat-tail sd={sd}: P(\u003e=41)={np.mean(sims\u003e=41):.3f} P(|chg|\u003e1)={np.mean(np.abs(sims-anchor)\u003e1):.3f} 5th {np.percentile(sims,5):.2f} 95th {np.percentile(sims,95):.2f}\")\n",
"description": "Monte Carlo of the approve level on Aug 14 2026 under a random-walk-with-small-drift model anchored on the mid-July value, producing threshold probabilities and percentiles for the numeric distribution."
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_months": 18,
"series_ids": [
"CPIAUCSL",
"UNRATE",
"UMCSENT",
"PAYEMS"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq4",
"sq2"
],
"tool_name": "fred_data"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-07-25T12:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nAccording to the [resolution source](https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin):\u0026#x20;\n\n\u003e **Updated July 15, 2026**\n\n\u003e **Donald Trump\u2019s net approval rating is up to -17**. That\u2019s up from -17.9 one week ago and -18.5 one month ago. In fact, Trump\u2019s net approval rating is currently higher than it\u2019s been since mid-April.\n\n\u003e Some of this uptick is being driven by individual pollsters showing far better than average results for Trump. [J.L. Partners released a Trump -6 result recently](https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-15921233/trump-approval-bounces-iran-deal.html) and [Talker Research/Scripps](https://www.scrippsnews.com/politics/scripps-news-poll-americans-excited-to-celebrate-july-4-but-divided-on-trumps-role) News released a Trump -1 result right before Independence Day. It goes without saying that the latter is a massive outlier, but many of the most influential polls in our average have Trump\u2019s approval rating right around -17:\u0026#x20;\n\u003e \u0026#x20;\n\u003e [Quinnipiac](https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3961)\n\u003e \u0026#x20;\n\u003e : net -17\n\n\u003e [Independent Center](https://independentcentervoice.com/insights/june-2026-national-survey-on-independent-candidates)\n\u003e \u0026#x20;\n\u003e : -16\n\n\u003e [TIPP](https://tippinsights.com/trump-gets-a-july-bounce-in-voter-favorability-but-will-it-help-gop-candidates-in-midterms-i-i-tipp-poll/#google_vignette)\n\u003e \u0026#x20;\n\u003e : -16\n\n\u003e [Echelon Insights](https://echeloninsights.com/hubfs/_Media%20for%20Insights%20Blog/Echelon%20Insights%20America%20250%20Survey%20Topline%20-%20External.pdf)\n\u003e \u0026#x20;\n\u003e : -17\n\n\u003e Trump certainly still isn\u2019t popular, but there does seem to have been a slight reversion from his all-time approval low in May.\n\u003e \u0026#x20;\n\u003e *-EMD, 7/6/26*\\*\\*\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 44674, \"question_id\": 44833}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the approval rating for Donald Trump shown at the Silver Bulletin\u0027s [How popular is Donald Trump?](https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin) tracker for August 14, 2026, when accessed by Metaculus on or after August 15, 2026.\n\n## Fine Print\nBetween the value shown in the chart and the csv file under the chart (\"Get the data\"), the csv file takes precedence. See the \"approve\" column in the csv.\n\n***\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44674) which opened on 2026-07-16 12:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.",
"open_lower": true,
"open_upper": true,
"q_max": 46.05,
"q_min": 33.95,
"question_type": "numeric",
"title": "What will be Donald Trump\u0027s approval rating on August 14, 2026?",
"units": "%"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.95, Volume: $148.1K\n- \"Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.94, Volume: $396.4K\n- \"Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.03, Volume: $9.3M",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 4,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 23.39,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "0 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 22.93,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "14 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 1.09,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Monte Carlo of the approve level on Aug 14 2026 under a rand",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 2.3,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "4 series",
"tool_name": "fred_data"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "Silver Bulletin average showed Trump approval at 40% as of July 20, 2026, up from a late-May low near 38%.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "As of July 24, 2026, Silver Bulletin net approval was -17.4, versus -17.0 reported around July 15 and a May low of -20.2.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Net approval improved from -18.5 (mid-June) to -17.9 (early July) to -17.0 (mid-July), a roughly 1.5-point gain over a month.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Silver Bulletin analyst noted part of the July uptick was driven by individual pollsters with far-better-than-average results, including a massive outlier (Talker/Scripps -1).",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "A separate multi-pollster monthly aggregate put July 2026 at 39.4% approve / 57.2% disapprove (-17.8 net), slightly below Silver\u0027s figure.",
"credibility": 65,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "CPI YoY is roughly +3.5% (index 332.57, +11.13 points YoY) and Michigan consumer sentiment is 44.8, down 15.9 points YoY.",
"credibility": 95,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "fred_data",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Unemployment stable at 4.2% (June 2026) and payrolls up 442k YoY, indicating no acute labor-market deterioration.",
"credibility": 95,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "fred_data",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Monte Carlo random-walk models with sd 0.6-1.0 and drift -0.3 to +0.6 give P(approve \u003e= 41.0) ranging from 0.16 to 0.69, centered near 0.30-0.40 for zero drift.",
"credibility": 45,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Silver\u0027s 2026 tracker moved from ~52% (Jan 2025 start) to 39.7% in late March, ~38% in late May, ~40% in July, implying month-to-month swings often near or above 1 point.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "A US-Iran war earlier in 2026 caused a gas-price spike blamed for pushing approval below 40%, and a subsequent \u0027Iran deal\u0027 was cited in a favorable J.L. Partners poll.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "Trump\u0027s approval is heading into the 2026 midterm campaign with independent approval at 34%, below 2018\u0027s pre-wave 36%.",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "News searches returned no specific reported major approval-moving event (shock, escalation, scandal, or landmark legislation) between July 15 and the research date.",
"credibility": 35,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "claude_news",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No direct read of the Silver Bulletin CSV \u0027approve\u0027 column for mid-July/August 2026",
"No base rate for typical 30-day absolute change in the Silver Bulletin average",
"No news coverage after ~July 24, 2026 (blind for the final three weeks)",
"No August 2026 CPI/gas-price or event calendar data"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether the July uptick was outlier-driven noise that mean-reverts",
"Exact mid-July anchor level (39.4 vs 40.0 vs 41.0)",
"Gas prices / inflation trajectory into August",
"Possibility of an unforeseen shock or midterm-season salience shift"
],
"n_evidence": 12
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 20.41,
"plan": 33.39,
"research": 23.39,
"synthesis": 21.22
}
}