## Cross-Market Signals

### No signal found

1. [sq1 | fred_data | STRONG cred 95 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] As of 2026-07-22, DGS30 was 5.15% and DGS10 was 4.67%, implying a 30Y-10Y spread of ~48 basis points.
2. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] On 2026-05-22, 10Y was 4.57% and 30Y was 5.08%, implying a ~51bp spread; on 2026-05-26, 30Y was 5.024% and 10Y was 4.489%, ~53bp.
3. [sq1 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The current spread (~48bp) sits just below the 50bp threshold, making the resolution highly sensitive to small yield moves.
4. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 78 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] On 2026-07-23, 10Y yield topped 4.7% amid Middle East escalation and oil above $100, with strategists expecting further upside toward 5%.
5. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | RECENT] BofA strategists (June 2026) expected the 2Y-10Y gap to narrow and the curve to flatten after the Fed held rates steady.
6. [sq2 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] YoY, DGS10 rose +0.12 vs DGS30 +0.10, meaning the 10Y rose slightly faster than the 30Y, tending to compress the spread.
7. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 65 | UP | VERY_RECENT] JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon issued a bearish long-end Treasury call in July 2026; many investors already shortened duration.
8. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Multiple outlets cite persistent fiscal deficits, ballooning government spending, and term-premium concerns keeping long-end yields elevated in 2026.
9. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 82 | UP | DATED] 30Y yield hit a 19-year high near 5.2% in May 2026, driven by inflation fears, Iran war, and unsustainable federal finances.
10. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 78 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Fed under new Chair Warsh held rates steady in June 2026 with only small balance-sheet (QT) changes, market pricing brought forward hike expectations.

## Cross-Market Signals

### No signal found

Information gaps:
  - No explicit historical volatility / base rate for 30Y-10Y spread over 3-4 week horizons
  - Code execution output not shown — Monte Carlo distribution results missing
  - No spread reading between late July and Aug 14 2026
  - Resolution of Middle East conflict / oil path uncertain

Key uncertainties:
  - Spread sits right at 50bp threshold — coin-flip sensitivity
  - Whether 10Y rises faster than 30Y (flattening) as inflation fears mount
  - Term-premium vs Fed-hike dynamics driving relative moves
  - Geopolitical/oil shock impact on curve shape by mid-August

You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.

## Question
What will be the NOB spread on August 14, 2026?

## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
Connect Money [NOB Spread Steepening Signals Structural Reset in Long-End Rates](https://www.connectmoney.com/stories/nob-spread-steepening-signals-structural-reset-in-long-end-rates/): "The widening of the NOB spread—the relative steepening of the 30-year yield over the 10-year yield—is one of the most important, yet often overlooked, bond market signals of the past several months, and understanding its drivers requires unpacking structural, policy, and technical forces"

`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "f15e16fb9378b0a9", "sheet_id": "138"}}`

## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as the difference, in basis points, between the yield on 30-Year U.S. Treasury Securities on August 14, 2026 as presented by FRED at [DGS30](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS30) and the yield on 10-Year U.S. Treasury Securities on that date as presented by FRED at [DGS10](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10).

## Fine Print
If no value for the date is published by FRED, the most recent available value from an earlier day will be used.

## Range
The answer must be a number in [29.5, 70.5] (units: basis points).

## Sub-question decomposition (planner)
- (w=0.40) Will the 30Y-10Y Treasury yield spread (DGS30 minus DGS10) be above 50 basis points on the resolution date?  — The spread has been steepening structurally per the description; establishing whether it stays elevated above the ~50bp 
- (w=0.35) Will the current steepening trend in the 30Y-10Y spread persist or continue widening through mid-2026?  — Momentum and directional persistence of the curve slope drives whether the spread drifts higher or mean-reverts over the
- (w=0.25) Will long-end Treasury supply/term-premium pressures (fiscal deficits, QT) keep 30Y yields elevated relative to 10Y?  — Structural drivers cited in the description (term premium, issuance) determine the ceiling on the spread independent of 

## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | fred_data | STRONG cred 95 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] As of 2026-07-22, DGS30 was 5.15% and DGS10 was 4.67%, implying a 30Y-10Y spread of ~48 basis points.
2. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] On 2026-05-22, 10Y was 4.57% and 30Y was 5.08%, implying a ~51bp spread; on 2026-05-26, 30Y was 5.024% and 10Y was 4.489%, ~53bp.
3. [sq1 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The current spread (~48bp) sits just below the 50bp threshold, making the resolution highly sensitive to small yield moves.
4. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 78 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] On 2026-07-23, 10Y yield topped 4.7% amid Middle East escalation and oil above $100, with strategists expecting further upside toward 5%.
5. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | RECENT] BofA strategists (June 2026) expected the 2Y-10Y gap to narrow and the curve to flatten after the Fed held rates steady.
6. [sq2 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] YoY, DGS10 rose +0.12 vs DGS30 +0.10, meaning the 10Y rose slightly faster than the 30Y, tending to compress the spread.
7. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 65 | UP | VERY_RECENT] JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon issued a bearish long-end Treasury call in July 2026; many investors already shortened duration.
8. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Multiple outlets cite persistent fiscal deficits, ballooning government spending, and term-premium concerns keeping long-end yields elevated in 2026.
9. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 82 | UP | DATED] 30Y yield hit a 19-year high near 5.2% in May 2026, driven by inflation fears, Iran war, and unsustainable federal finances.
10. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 78 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Fed under new Chair Warsh held rates steady in June 2026 with only small balance-sheet (QT) changes, market pricing brought forward hike expectations.

## Cross-Market Signals

### No signal found

Information gaps:
  - No explicit historical volatility / base rate for 30Y-10Y spread over 3-4 week horizons
  - Code execution output not shown — Monte Carlo distribution results missing
  - No spread reading between late July and Aug 14 2026
  - Resolution of Middle East conflict / oil path uncertain

Key uncertainties:
  - Spread sits right at 50bp threshold — coin-flip sensitivity
  - Whether 10Y rises faster than 30Y (flattening) as inflation fears mount
  - Term-premium vs Fed-hike dynamics driving relative moves
  - Geopolitical/oil shock impact on curve shape by mid-August

## Required pre-forecast walkthrough

Before giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:
  (a) The time left until the question resolves.
  (b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).
  (c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.
  (d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.
  (e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).
  (f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).

## Calibration guidance

- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.
- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.
- Don't pile mass at one value — if you're tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.
- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen — don't override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.
- **Relative-return / spread questions ("how much will X's return exceed Y's").** A near-zero median is usually right, but size the TAILS to the more VOLATILE leg, not to a generic 2-3pp spread. Two broad equity indices (e.g. Nasdaq-100 vs S&P 500) do stay within roughly ±2-3pp over a two-week window. But when one leg is a commodity (crude oil, gold) or a single high-beta stock (e.g. Nvidia), the two-week realized spread regularly reaches ±10pp or more — crude-vs-equity spreads have hit ±18pp. In those cases set p10/p90 to at least ±10pp (±15pp or wider for oil) while keeping the median near the status-quo spread; the 2-3pp intuition applies only to index-vs-index.
- **Heavy-tailed one-off magnitudes (opening-weekend box office, product-launch or debut numbers).** Pre-event tracking for these routinely misses by ±40% or more, and results land both far above and far below the consensus. Do NOT treat the displayed [min, max] range as the plausible range or clamp p10/p90 to its edges: the outcome can fall outside the range in either direction (recent opening weekends resolved ~7% above a displayed ceiling in one case and roughly half the displayed floor in another). Set p10/p90 wide enough that a 2x-or-0.5x surprise versus your central estimate still lands inside the interval, and when concrete current tracking disagrees with historical/franchise base rates, weight the tracking.

## Output

Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:

{
  "rationale": "<address (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution — 6-10 sentences total>",
  "p10": <number>,
  "p25": <number>,
  "p50": <number>,
  "p75": <number>,
  "p90": <number>
}

Percentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 <= p25 <= p50 <= p75 <= p90).

{
  "forecast": {
    "evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | fred_data | STRONG cred 95 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] As of 2026-07-22, DGS30 was 5.15% and DGS10 was 4.67%, implying a 30Y-10Y spread of ~48 basis points.\n2. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] On 2026-05-22, 10Y was 4.57% and 30Y was 5.08%, implying a ~51bp spread; on 2026-05-26, 30Y was 5.024% and 10Y was 4.489%, ~53bp.\n3. [sq1 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The current spread (~48bp) sits just below the 50bp threshold, making the resolution highly sensitive to small yield moves.\n4. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 78 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] On 2026-07-23, 10Y yield topped 4.7% amid Middle East escalation and oil above $100, with strategists expecting further upside toward 5%.\n5. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | RECENT] BofA strategists (June 2026) expected the 2Y-10Y gap to narrow and the curve to flatten after the Fed held rates steady.\n6. [sq2 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] YoY, DGS10 rose +0.12 vs DGS30 +0.10, meaning the 10Y rose slightly faster than the 30Y, tending to compress the spread.\n7. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 65 | UP | VERY_RECENT] JPMorgan\u0027s Jamie Dimon issued a bearish long-end Treasury call in July 2026; many investors already shortened duration.\n8. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Multiple outlets cite persistent fiscal deficits, ballooning government spending, and term-premium concerns keeping long-end yields elevated in 2026.\n9. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 82 | UP | DATED] 30Y yield hit a 19-year high near 5.2% in May 2026, driven by inflation fears, Iran war, and unsustainable federal finances.\n10. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 78 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Fed under new Chair Warsh held rates steady in June 2026 with only small balance-sheet (QT) changes, market pricing brought forward hike expectations.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n  - No explicit historical volatility / base rate for 30Y-10Y spread over 3-4 week horizons\n  - Code execution output not shown \u2014 Monte Carlo distribution results missing\n  - No spread reading between late July and Aug 14 2026\n  - Resolution of Middle East conflict / oil path uncertain\n\nKey uncertainties:\n  - Spread sits right at 50bp threshold \u2014 coin-flip sensitivity\n  - Whether 10Y rises faster than 30Y (flattening) as inflation fears mount\n  - Term-premium vs Fed-hike dynamics driving relative moves\n  - Geopolitical/oil shock impact on curve shape by mid-August",
    "forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.\n\n## Question\nWhat will be the NOB spread on August 14, 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nConnect Money [NOB Spread Steepening Signals Structural Reset in Long-End Rates](https://www.connectmoney.com/stories/nob-spread-steepening-signals-structural-reset-in-long-end-rates/): \"The widening of the NOB spread\u2014the relative steepening of the 30-year yield over the 10-year yield\u2014is one of the most important, yet often overlooked, bond market signals of the past several months, and understanding its drivers requires unpacking structural, policy, and technical forces\"\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"f15e16fb9378b0a9\", \"sheet_id\": \"138\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the difference, in basis points, between the yield on 30-Year U.S. Treasury Securities on August 14, 2026 as presented by FRED at [DGS30](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS30) and the yield on 10-Year U.S. Treasury Securities on that date as presented by FRED at [DGS10](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10).\n\n## Fine Print\nIf no value for the date is published by FRED, the most recent available value from an earlier day will be used.\n\n## Range\nThe answer must be a number in [29.5, 70.5] (units: basis points).\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n- (w=0.40) Will the 30Y-10Y Treasury yield spread (DGS30 minus DGS10) be above 50 basis points on the resolution date?  \u2014 The spread has been steepening structurally per the description; establishing whether it stays elevated above the ~50bp \n- (w=0.35) Will the current steepening trend in the 30Y-10Y spread persist or continue widening through mid-2026?  \u2014 Momentum and directional persistence of the curve slope drives whether the spread drifts higher or mean-reverts over the\n- (w=0.25) Will long-end Treasury supply/term-premium pressures (fiscal deficits, QT) keep 30Y yields elevated relative to 10Y?  \u2014 Structural drivers cited in the description (term premium, issuance) determine the ceiling on the spread independent of \n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | fred_data | STRONG cred 95 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] As of 2026-07-22, DGS30 was 5.15% and DGS10 was 4.67%, implying a 30Y-10Y spread of ~48 basis points.\n2. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] On 2026-05-22, 10Y was 4.57% and 30Y was 5.08%, implying a ~51bp spread; on 2026-05-26, 30Y was 5.024% and 10Y was 4.489%, ~53bp.\n3. [sq1 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The current spread (~48bp) sits just below the 50bp threshold, making the resolution highly sensitive to small yield moves.\n4. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 78 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] On 2026-07-23, 10Y yield topped 4.7% amid Middle East escalation and oil above $100, with strategists expecting further upside toward 5%.\n5. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | RECENT] BofA strategists (June 2026) expected the 2Y-10Y gap to narrow and the curve to flatten after the Fed held rates steady.\n6. [sq2 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] YoY, DGS10 rose +0.12 vs DGS30 +0.10, meaning the 10Y rose slightly faster than the 30Y, tending to compress the spread.\n7. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 65 | UP | VERY_RECENT] JPMorgan\u0027s Jamie Dimon issued a bearish long-end Treasury call in July 2026; many investors already shortened duration.\n8. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Multiple outlets cite persistent fiscal deficits, ballooning government spending, and term-premium concerns keeping long-end yields elevated in 2026.\n9. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 82 | UP | DATED] 30Y yield hit a 19-year high near 5.2% in May 2026, driven by inflation fears, Iran war, and unsustainable federal finances.\n10. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 78 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Fed under new Chair Warsh held rates steady in June 2026 with only small balance-sheet (QT) changes, market pricing brought forward hike expectations.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n  - No explicit historical volatility / base rate for 30Y-10Y spread over 3-4 week horizons\n  - Code execution output not shown \u2014 Monte Carlo distribution results missing\n  - No spread reading between late July and Aug 14 2026\n  - Resolution of Middle East conflict / oil path uncertain\n\nKey uncertainties:\n  - Spread sits right at 50bp threshold \u2014 coin-flip sensitivity\n  - Whether 10Y rises faster than 30Y (flattening) as inflation fears mount\n  - Term-premium vs Fed-hike dynamics driving relative moves\n  - Geopolitical/oil shock impact on curve shape by mid-August\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n  (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n  (b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).\n  (c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.\n  (d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.\n  (e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).\n  (f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.\n- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.\n- Don\u0027t pile mass at one value \u2014 if you\u0027re tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.\n- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen \u2014 don\u0027t override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.\n- **Relative-return / spread questions (\"how much will X\u0027s return exceed Y\u0027s\").** A near-zero median is usually right, but size the TAILS to the more VOLATILE leg, not to a generic 2-3pp spread. Two broad equity indices (e.g. Nasdaq-100 vs S\u0026P 500) do stay within roughly \u00b12-3pp over a two-week window. But when one leg is a commodity (crude oil, gold) or a single high-beta stock (e.g. Nvidia), the two-week realized spread regularly reaches \u00b110pp or more \u2014 crude-vs-equity spreads have hit \u00b118pp. In those cases set p10/p90 to at least \u00b110pp (\u00b115pp or wider for oil) while keeping the median near the status-quo spread; the 2-3pp intuition applies only to index-vs-index.\n- **Heavy-tailed one-off magnitudes (opening-weekend box office, product-launch or debut numbers).** Pre-event tracking for these routinely misses by \u00b140% or more, and results land both far above and far below the consensus. Do NOT treat the displayed [min, max] range as the plausible range or clamp p10/p90 to its edges: the outcome can fall outside the range in either direction (recent opening weekends resolved ~7% above a displayed ceiling in one case and roughly half the displayed floor in another). Set p10/p90 wide enough that a 2x-or-0.5x surprise versus your central estimate still lands inside the interval, and when concrete current tracking disagrees with historical/franchise base rates, weight the tracking.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n  \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution \u2014 6-10 sentences total\u003e\",\n  \"p10\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n  \"p25\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n  \"p50\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n  \"p75\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n  \"p90\": \u003cnumber\u003e\n}\n\nPercentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 \u003c= p25 \u003c= p50 \u003c= p75 \u003c= p90).\n",
    "models": [
      "opus"
    ],
    "p50": 48.0,
    "percentiles": {
      "0.1": 40.0,
      "0.25": 44.0,
      "0.5": 48.0,
      "0.75": 53.0,
      "0.9": 58.0
    },
    "rationale": "(a) About 3 weeks remain from the most recent data point (2026-07-22, ~48bp) to resolution on 2026-08-14. (b) Status quo: spread ~48bp. (c) Current trend is mixed\u2014YoY the 10Y rose slightly faster than the 30Y (mild flattening), while structural fiscal/term-premium forces push the long end up (steepening); these roughly offset, keeping the spread near 48. (d) Experts split: BofA sees flattening while fiscal-deficit/term-premium bulls see steepening; recent readings clustered 48-53bp. (e) A LOW outcome (~40) arises if inflation/geopolitical fears drive the 10Y up faster than the 30Y, compressing the spread. (f) A HIGH outcome (~58+) arises if renewed long-end supply/term-premium concerns or a Fed-cut expectation steepens the curve. I anchor the median on the status-quo ~48bp and widen the tails to account for the coin-flip proximity to the 50bp threshold and 3-week volatility."
  },
  "plan": {
    "combination_logic": "weighted_average",
    "domain": "economics",
    "n_sub_qs": 3,
    "n_tools": 3,
    "reasoning_approach": "Use FRED data to establish the current spread level and its trend, project it forward via historical volatility to build a distribution centered on the persistence of steepening, and weight the correlated sub-factors (level, momentum, term-premium drivers) into a blended central estimate.",
    "sub_questions": [
      {
        "id": "sq1",
        "question": "Will the 30Y-10Y Treasury yield spread (DGS30 minus DGS10) be above 50 basis points on the resolution date?",
        "rationale": "The spread has been steepening structurally per the description; establishing whether it stays elevated above the ~50bp threshold anchors the central estimate.",
        "weight": 0.4
      },
      {
        "id": "sq2",
        "question": "Will the current steepening trend in the 30Y-10Y spread persist or continue widening through mid-2026?",
        "rationale": "Momentum and directional persistence of the curve slope drives whether the spread drifts higher or mean-reverts over the ~1 year horizon.",
        "weight": 0.35
      },
      {
        "id": "sq3",
        "question": "Will long-end Treasury supply/term-premium pressures (fiscal deficits, QT) keep 30Y yields elevated relative to 10Y?",
        "rationale": "Structural drivers cited in the description (term premium, issuance) determine the ceiling on the spread independent of Fed short-rate policy.",
        "weight": 0.25
      }
    ],
    "tool_requests": [
      {
        "parameters": {
          "lookback_months": 60,
          "series_ids": [
            "DGS30",
            "DGS10",
            "T10Y2Y",
            "FEDFUNDS"
          ]
        },
        "target_sub_questions": [
          "sq1",
          "sq2",
          "sq3"
        ],
        "tool_name": "fred_data"
      },
      {
        "parameters": {
          "code": "import numpy as np\n# Placeholder for analyzing DGS30-DGS10 spread history: compute recent level, volatility, and random-walk projection to Aug 2026\n# Estimate distribution of spread ~1yr out using historical daily changes\nprint(\u0027Analyze spread level, trend, and simulate forward distribution\u0027)",
          "description": "Compute recent 30Y-10Y spread level, trend, and Monte Carlo / random-walk projection to Aug 14 2026 to estimate the distribution of outcomes."
        },
        "target_sub_questions": [
          "sq1",
          "sq2"
        ],
        "tool_name": "code_execution"
      },
      {
        "parameters": {
          "lookback_days": 90,
          "queries": [
            "NOB spread 30-year 10-year Treasury steepening outlook",
            "Treasury yield curve term premium long-end 2026 forecast",
            "US fiscal deficit Treasury issuance long-end yields"
          ]
        },
        "target_sub_questions": [
          "sq2",
          "sq3"
        ],
        "tool_name": "article_search"
      }
    ]
  },
  "question": {
    "close_time": "2026-07-24T18:00:00Z",
    "description": "## Description\nConnect Money [NOB Spread Steepening Signals Structural Reset in Long-End Rates](https://www.connectmoney.com/stories/nob-spread-steepening-signals-structural-reset-in-long-end-rates/): \"The widening of the NOB spread\u2014the relative steepening of the 30-year yield over the 10-year yield\u2014is one of the most important, yet often overlooked, bond market signals of the past several months, and understanding its drivers requires unpacking structural, policy, and technical forces\"\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"f15e16fb9378b0a9\", \"sheet_id\": \"138\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the difference, in basis points, between the yield on 30-Year U.S. Treasury Securities on August 14, 2026 as presented by FRED at [DGS30](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS30) and the yield on 10-Year U.S. Treasury Securities on that date as presented by FRED at [DGS10](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10).\n\n## Fine Print\nIf no value for the date is published by FRED, the most recent available value from an earlier day will be used.",
    "open_lower": true,
    "open_upper": true,
    "q_max": 70.5,
    "q_min": 29.5,
    "question_type": "numeric",
    "title": "What will be the NOB spread on August 14, 2026?",
    "units": "basis points"
  },
  "research": {
    "cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found",
    "errors": [],
    "has_cross_market": true,
    "n_errors": 0,
    "n_tools": 3,
    "tools": [
      {
        "elapsed_s": 31.92,
        "error": null,
        "success": true,
        "summary": "4 series",
        "tool_name": "fred_data"
      },
      {
        "elapsed_s": 0.01,
        "error": null,
        "success": true,
        "summary": "Compute recent 30Y-10Y spread level, trend, and Monte Carlo ",
        "tool_name": "code_execution"
      },
      {
        "elapsed_s": 0.54,
        "error": null,
        "success": true,
        "summary": "19 articles",
        "tool_name": "article_search"
      }
    ]
  },
  "synthesis": {
    "evidence": [
      {
        "claim": "As of 2026-07-22, DGS30 was 5.15% and DGS10 was 4.67%, implying a 30Y-10Y spread of ~48 basis points.",
        "credibility": 95,
        "direction": "NEUTRAL",
        "priced_in": true,
        "recency": "VERY_RECENT",
        "source": "fred_data",
        "strength": "STRONG",
        "sub_question_id": "sq1"
      },
      {
        "claim": "On 2026-05-22, 10Y was 4.57% and 30Y was 5.08%, implying a ~51bp spread; on 2026-05-26, 30Y was 5.024% and 10Y was 4.489%, ~53bp.",
        "credibility": 80,
        "direction": "UP",
        "priced_in": true,
        "recency": "DATED",
        "source": "article_search",
        "strength": "MODERATE",
        "sub_question_id": "sq1"
      },
      {
        "claim": "The current spread (~48bp) sits just below the 50bp threshold, making the resolution highly sensitive to small yield moves.",
        "credibility": 90,
        "direction": "NEUTRAL",
        "priced_in": false,
        "recency": "VERY_RECENT",
        "source": "fred_data",
        "strength": "MODERATE",
        "sub_question_id": "sq1"
      },
      {
        "claim": "On 2026-07-23, 10Y yield topped 4.7% amid Middle East escalation and oil above $100, with strategists expecting further upside toward 5%.",
        "credibility": 78,
        "direction": "DOWN",
        "priced_in": false,
        "recency": "VERY_RECENT",
        "source": "article_search",
        "strength": "MODERATE",
        "sub_question_id": "sq2"
      },
      {
        "claim": "BofA strategists (June 2026) expected the 2Y-10Y gap to narrow and the curve to flatten after the Fed held rates steady.",
        "credibility": 75,
        "direction": "DOWN",
        "priced_in": true,
        "recency": "RECENT",
        "source": "article_search",
        "strength": "MODERATE",
        "sub_question_id": "sq2"
      },
      {
        "claim": "YoY, DGS10 rose +0.12 vs DGS30 +0.10, meaning the 10Y rose slightly faster than the 30Y, tending to compress the spread.",
        "credibility": 90,
        "direction": "DOWN",
        "priced_in": false,
        "recency": "VERY_RECENT",
        "source": "fred_data",
        "strength": "MODERATE",
        "sub_question_id": "sq2"
      },
      {
        "claim": "JPMorgan\u0027s Jamie Dimon issued a bearish long-end Treasury call in July 2026; many investors already shortened duration.",
        "credibility": 65,
        "direction": "UP",
        "priced_in": true,
        "recency": "VERY_RECENT",
        "source": "article_search",
        "strength": "WEAK",
        "sub_question_id": "sq2"
      },
      {
        "claim": "Multiple outlets cite persistent fiscal deficits, ballooning government spending, and term-premium concerns keeping long-end yields elevated in 2026.",
        "credibility": 80,
        "direction": "UP",
        "priced_in": true,
        "recency": "VERY_RECENT",
        "source": "article_search",
        "strength": "MODERATE",
        "sub_question_id": "sq3"
      },
      {
        "claim": "30Y yield hit a 19-year high near 5.2% in May 2026, driven by inflation fears, Iran war, and unsustainable federal finances.",
        "credibility": 82,
        "direction": "UP",
        "priced_in": true,
        "recency": "DATED",
        "source": "article_search",
        "strength": "MODERATE",
        "sub_question_id": "sq3"
      },
      {
        "claim": "Fed under new Chair Warsh held rates steady in June 2026 with only small balance-sheet (QT) changes, market pricing brought forward hike expectations.",
        "credibility": 78,
        "direction": "NEUTRAL",
        "priced_in": true,
        "recency": "RECENT",
        "source": "article_search",
        "strength": "MODERATE",
        "sub_question_id": "sq3"
      }
    ],
    "information_gaps": [
      "No explicit historical volatility / base rate for 30Y-10Y spread over 3-4 week horizons",
      "Code execution output not shown \u2014 Monte Carlo distribution results missing",
      "No spread reading between late July and Aug 14 2026",
      "Resolution of Middle East conflict / oil path uncertain"
    ],
    "key_uncertainties": [
      "Spread sits right at 50bp threshold \u2014 coin-flip sensitivity",
      "Whether 10Y rises faster than 30Y (flattening) as inflation fears mount",
      "Term-premium vs Fed-hike dynamics driving relative moves",
      "Geopolitical/oil shock impact on curve shape by mid-August"
    ],
    "n_evidence": 10
  },
  "timings": {
    "forecast": 15.86,
    "plan": 12.77,
    "research": 31.92,
    "synthesis": 20.72
  }
}