sq1 gates whether the event happens at all, sq2 assesses physical feasibility of the sub-6-minute pace given robot capabilities, and sq3 anchors to historical race outcomes; these correlated factors blend via weighted average toward a holistic estimate.
## Cross-Market Signals ### No signal found
1. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | DATED] Beijing announced it will host the second World Humanoid Robot Games in August 2026. 2. [sq1 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] The inaugural World Humanoid Robot Games was held in Beijing in August 2025, establishing precedent for the event. 3. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | DATED] Beijing held a robot half-marathon in April 2026, showing continued Chinese institutional support for humanoid racing events. 4. [sq2 | article_search | STRONG cred 82 | UP | DATED] Honor's Lightning robot completed a 21km half-marathon in 50m26s (~6.9 m/s average) in April 2026, beating the human world record. 5. [sq2 | code_execution | STRONG cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Required pace for sub-6-minute 1,500m is 4.17 m/s (15 km/h); Honor's half-marathon pace of ~6.9 m/s exceeds this. 6. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 60 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Cited Unitree H1/H2 sprint speeds (3.0–3.3 m/s) yield 1,500m times of 7.6–8.3 minutes, short of the sub-6-minute target. 7. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 72 | UP | DATED] Chinese humanoid robots progressed from viral stumbles in 2025 to kung fu flips and gymnastics by early 2026. 8. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 65 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Rental-market reporting notes today's humanoid robots remain years from reliably replacing human labor, exposing practical limits. 9. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | DATED] The 2025 inaugural robot marathon in April made headlines mainly for robots stumbling, not for fast times. 10. [sq3 | wikipedia_lookup | WEAK cred 40 | NEUTRAL | DATED] No specific 2025 World Humanoid Robot Games 1,500m winning time was surfaced in the research data. ## Cross-Market Signals ### No signal found Information gaps: - No confirmed 2026 Games date, event schedule, or 1,500m inclusion - No 2025 Games 1,500m winning time data - Half-marathon pace vs. short-track 1,500m sprint pace comparability unclear - Which specific robots will enter the 2026 1,500m and their tested speeds Key uncertainties: - Whether a 1,500m event is on the 2026 program - Whether top race pace (Honor ~6.9 m/s) transfers to 1,500m format - Reliability of robots finishing without falls at high pace - Whether the event occurs before September 1, 2026
You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates — your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.
## Question
Will the 2026 World Humanoid Robot Games 1,500-meter run be won by a robot finishing in under 6 minutes?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
World Internet Conference: [Beijing to host second World Humanoid Robot Games in August](https://www.wicinternet.org/2026-04/26/c_1178922.htm)
`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "e3d2374ea8a0d881", "sheet_id": "112"}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as **Yes** if, in the 2026 [World Humanoid Robot Games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Humanoid_Robot_Games), the winning time is under 6 minutes for the 1,500 meter run. Otherwise (including if the event is not held before September 1, 2026), the question resolves as **No**.
## Sub-question decomposition
- (w=0.30) Will the 2026 World Humanoid Robot Games be held before September 1, 2026, and include a 1,500-meter run event? — The event and specific race must occur before the deadline; if not held or the race not included, the question resolves
- (w=0.45) Have current top humanoid robots demonstrated sustained running speeds fast enough to cover 1,500m in under 6 minutes (i.e., faster than ~4.17 m/s average)? — Sub-6-minute 1500m requires ~4.17 m/s sustained pace over long distance; this tests whether robot locomotion capability,
- (w=0.25) Did the prior/inaugural World Humanoid Robot Games (2025) 1,500m or similar distance events show winning paces approaching sub-6-minute performance? — Historical race results from the same competition series are the strongest base rate for what winning times will look li
Combination rule: **weighted_average**
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | DATED] Beijing announced it will host the second World Humanoid Robot Games in August 2026.
2. [sq1 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] The inaugural World Humanoid Robot Games was held in Beijing in August 2025, establishing precedent for the event.
3. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | DATED] Beijing held a robot half-marathon in April 2026, showing continued Chinese institutional support for humanoid racing events.
4. [sq2 | article_search | STRONG cred 82 | UP | DATED] Honor's Lightning robot completed a 21km half-marathon in 50m26s (~6.9 m/s average) in April 2026, beating the human world record.
5. [sq2 | code_execution | STRONG cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Required pace for sub-6-minute 1,500m is 4.17 m/s (15 km/h); Honor's half-marathon pace of ~6.9 m/s exceeds this.
6. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 60 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Cited Unitree H1/H2 sprint speeds (3.0–3.3 m/s) yield 1,500m times of 7.6–8.3 minutes, short of the sub-6-minute target.
7. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 72 | UP | DATED] Chinese humanoid robots progressed from viral stumbles in 2025 to kung fu flips and gymnastics by early 2026.
8. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 65 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Rental-market reporting notes today's humanoid robots remain years from reliably replacing human labor, exposing practical limits.
9. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | DATED] The 2025 inaugural robot marathon in April made headlines mainly for robots stumbling, not for fast times.
10. [sq3 | wikipedia_lookup | WEAK cred 40 | NEUTRAL | DATED] No specific 2025 World Humanoid Robot Games 1,500m winning time was surfaced in the research data.
## Cross-Market Signals
### No signal found
Information gaps:
- No confirmed 2026 Games date, event schedule, or 1,500m inclusion
- No 2025 Games 1,500m winning time data
- Half-marathon pace vs. short-track 1,500m sprint pace comparability unclear
- Which specific robots will enter the 2026 1,500m and their tested speeds
Key uncertainties:
- Whether a 1,500m event is on the 2026 program
- Whether top race pace (Honor ~6.9 m/s) transfers to 1,500m format
- Reliability of robots finishing without falls at high pace
- Whether the event occurs before September 1, 2026
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The status quo outcome — what happens if nothing changes from today.
(c) A brief scenario that results in NO.
(d) A brief scenario that results in YES.
## Calibration guidance
- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition — independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.
- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.
- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid >0.97 or <0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological — overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question — move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.
- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or "very recent" claim — especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility — must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.
- **Also provide a holistic estimate** — your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) (d) above — 5-8 sentences total>",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq2": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq3": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>
},
"holistic_p_yes": <float in [0.01, 0.99] — your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition>,
"what_would_change_my_mind": "<1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%>"
}
{
"forecast": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | DATED] Beijing announced it will host the second World Humanoid Robot Games in August 2026.\n2. [sq1 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] The inaugural World Humanoid Robot Games was held in Beijing in August 2025, establishing precedent for the event.\n3. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | DATED] Beijing held a robot half-marathon in April 2026, showing continued Chinese institutional support for humanoid racing events.\n4. [sq2 | article_search | STRONG cred 82 | UP | DATED] Honor\u0027s Lightning robot completed a 21km half-marathon in 50m26s (~6.9 m/s average) in April 2026, beating the human world record.\n5. [sq2 | code_execution | STRONG cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Required pace for sub-6-minute 1,500m is 4.17 m/s (15 km/h); Honor\u0027s half-marathon pace of ~6.9 m/s exceeds this.\n6. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 60 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Cited Unitree H1/H2 sprint speeds (3.0\u20133.3 m/s) yield 1,500m times of 7.6\u20138.3 minutes, short of the sub-6-minute target.\n7. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 72 | UP | DATED] Chinese humanoid robots progressed from viral stumbles in 2025 to kung fu flips and gymnastics by early 2026.\n8. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 65 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Rental-market reporting notes today\u0027s humanoid robots remain years from reliably replacing human labor, exposing practical limits.\n9. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | DATED] The 2025 inaugural robot marathon in April made headlines mainly for robots stumbling, not for fast times.\n10. [sq3 | wikipedia_lookup | WEAK cred 40 | NEUTRAL | DATED] No specific 2025 World Humanoid Robot Games 1,500m winning time was surfaced in the research data.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No confirmed 2026 Games date, event schedule, or 1,500m inclusion\n - No 2025 Games 1,500m winning time data\n - Half-marathon pace vs. short-track 1,500m sprint pace comparability unclear\n - Which specific robots will enter the 2026 1,500m and their tested speeds\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether a 1,500m event is on the 2026 program\n - Whether top race pace (Honor ~6.9 m/s) transfers to 1,500m format\n - Reliability of robots finishing without falls at high pace\n - Whether the event occurs before September 1, 2026",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates \u2014 your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.\n\n## Question\nWill the 2026 World Humanoid Robot Games 1,500-meter run be won by a robot finishing in under 6 minutes?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nWorld Internet Conference: [Beijing to host second World Humanoid Robot Games in August](https://www.wicinternet.org/2026-04/26/c_1178922.htm)\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"e3d2374ea8a0d881\", \"sheet_id\": \"112\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if, in the 2026 [World Humanoid Robot Games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Humanoid_Robot_Games), the winning time is under 6 minutes for the 1,500 meter run. Otherwise (including if the event is not held before September 1, 2026), the question resolves as **No**.\n\n## Sub-question decomposition\n- (w=0.30) Will the 2026 World Humanoid Robot Games be held before September 1, 2026, and include a 1,500-meter run event? \u2014 The event and specific race must occur before the deadline; if not held or the race not included, the question resolves \n- (w=0.45) Have current top humanoid robots demonstrated sustained running speeds fast enough to cover 1,500m in under 6 minutes (i.e., faster than ~4.17 m/s average)? \u2014 Sub-6-minute 1500m requires ~4.17 m/s sustained pace over long distance; this tests whether robot locomotion capability,\n- (w=0.25) Did the prior/inaugural World Humanoid Robot Games (2025) 1,500m or similar distance events show winning paces approaching sub-6-minute performance? \u2014 Historical race results from the same competition series are the strongest base rate for what winning times will look li\n\nCombination rule: **weighted_average**\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | DATED] Beijing announced it will host the second World Humanoid Robot Games in August 2026.\n2. [sq1 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] The inaugural World Humanoid Robot Games was held in Beijing in August 2025, establishing precedent for the event.\n3. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | DATED] Beijing held a robot half-marathon in April 2026, showing continued Chinese institutional support for humanoid racing events.\n4. [sq2 | article_search | STRONG cred 82 | UP | DATED] Honor\u0027s Lightning robot completed a 21km half-marathon in 50m26s (~6.9 m/s average) in April 2026, beating the human world record.\n5. [sq2 | code_execution | STRONG cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Required pace for sub-6-minute 1,500m is 4.17 m/s (15 km/h); Honor\u0027s half-marathon pace of ~6.9 m/s exceeds this.\n6. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 60 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Cited Unitree H1/H2 sprint speeds (3.0\u20133.3 m/s) yield 1,500m times of 7.6\u20138.3 minutes, short of the sub-6-minute target.\n7. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 72 | UP | DATED] Chinese humanoid robots progressed from viral stumbles in 2025 to kung fu flips and gymnastics by early 2026.\n8. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 65 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Rental-market reporting notes today\u0027s humanoid robots remain years from reliably replacing human labor, exposing practical limits.\n9. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | DATED] The 2025 inaugural robot marathon in April made headlines mainly for robots stumbling, not for fast times.\n10. [sq3 | wikipedia_lookup | WEAK cred 40 | NEUTRAL | DATED] No specific 2025 World Humanoid Robot Games 1,500m winning time was surfaced in the research data.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No confirmed 2026 Games date, event schedule, or 1,500m inclusion\n - No 2025 Games 1,500m winning time data\n - Half-marathon pace vs. short-track 1,500m sprint pace comparability unclear\n - Which specific robots will enter the 2026 1,500m and their tested speeds\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether a 1,500m event is on the 2026 program\n - Whether top race pace (Honor ~6.9 m/s) transfers to 1,500m format\n - Reliability of robots finishing without falls at high pace\n - Whether the event occurs before September 1, 2026\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The status quo outcome \u2014 what happens if nothing changes from today.\n (c) A brief scenario that results in NO.\n (d) A brief scenario that results in YES.\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition \u2014 independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.\n- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.\n- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid \u003e0.97 or \u003c0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological \u2014 overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.\n- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question \u2014 move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.\n- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or \"very recent\" claim \u2014 especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility \u2014 must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.\n- **Also provide a holistic estimate** \u2014 your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) (b) (c) (d) above \u2014 5-8 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"sub_question_estimates\": {\n \"sq1\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq2\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq3\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e\n },\n \"holistic_p_yes\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99] \u2014 your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition\u003e,\n \"what_would_change_my_mind\": \"\u003c1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%\u003e\"\n}\n",
"holistic_p_yes": 0.55,
"models": [
"opus"
],
"p_yes": 0.6082000000000001,
"rationale": "(a) Resolution deadline is September 1, 2026, roughly a few months out with the Games announced for August 2026. (b) Status quo: Beijing has strong institutional momentum (2025 inaugural Games, April 2026 half-marathon), so the event is likely held with track events, and demonstrated robot speeds (Honor Lightning ~6.9 m/s over 21km in April 2026) clearly exceed the 4.17 m/s needed. (c) NO scenario: the Games slip past September 1, drop the 1,500m from the program, or the entered robots are slower Unitree-class units (3.0\u20133.3 m/s) that stumble and finish over 6 minutes. (d) YES scenario: the Games proceed in August, include a 1,500m, and a fast Honor/marathon-class humanoid completes it cleanly near demonstrated pace, easily under 6 minutes. The strongest uncertainty is event scheduling and which robots enter, plus whether marathon pace transfers to a reliable 1,500m finish. Overall the demonstrated capability makes sub-6 achievable, but reliability and event execution introduce meaningful downside.",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": 0.72,
"sq2": 0.78,
"sq3": 0.32
},
"what_would_change_my_mind": "Confirmation of the 2026 program including a 1,500m with fast marathon-class robots entered (push above 70%), or evidence the 2025 1,500m winning times were well over 6 minutes / the event is delayed or excludes the race (push below 30%)."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "tech",
"n_sub_qs": 3,
"n_tools": 4,
"reasoning_approach": "sq1 gates whether the event happens at all, sq2 assesses physical feasibility of the sub-6-minute pace given robot capabilities, and sq3 anchors to historical race outcomes; these correlated factors blend via weighted average toward a holistic estimate.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will the 2026 World Humanoid Robot Games be held before September 1, 2026, and include a 1,500-meter run event?",
"rationale": "The event and specific race must occur before the deadline; if not held or the race not included, the question resolves No automatically.",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Have current top humanoid robots demonstrated sustained running speeds fast enough to cover 1,500m in under 6 minutes (i.e., faster than ~4.17 m/s average)?",
"rationale": "Sub-6-minute 1500m requires ~4.17 m/s sustained pace over long distance; this tests whether robot locomotion capability, battery endurance, and stability are physically at that level.",
"weight": 0.45
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Did the prior/inaugural World Humanoid Robot Games (2025) 1,500m or similar distance events show winning paces approaching sub-6-minute performance?",
"rationale": "Historical race results from the same competition series are the strongest base rate for what winning times will look like in 2026.",
"weight": 0.25
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"World Humanoid Robot Games",
"Humanoid robot running speed record",
"Unitree H1 running speed"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "wikipedia_lookup"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_days": 180,
"queries": [
"2026 World Humanoid Robot Games Beijing August schedule",
"humanoid robot 1500 meter run race winning time",
"fastest humanoid robot running speed 2025 2026"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find whether the 2026 World Humanoid Robot Games in Beijing is confirmed to be held before September 1 2026 and whether a 1,500-meter run is on the program. Also find any 2025 World Humanoid Robot Games race results (especially 1500m or 400m/800m) with winning times, and the fastest demonstrated sustained running speeds of humanoid robots like Unitree H1/H2, Tesla Optimus, or Chinese humanoids over long distances.",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "Will the 2026 World Humanoid Robot Games 1,500-meter run be won by a robot finishing in under 6 minutes?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"code": "pace = 1500/ (6*60)\nprint(\u0027Required avg speed m/s:\u0027, pace)\nprint(\u0027Required avg speed km/h:\u0027, pace*3.6)\n# Compare to known humanoid demonstrated speeds\nspeeds = {\u0027Unitree H1 sprint\u0027:3.3,\u0027Unitree H2\u0027:3.0,\u0027Optimus walk\u0027:1.5,\u0027typical humanoid jog\u0027:2.0}\nfor k,v in speeds.items():\n print(k, v, \u0027m/s -\u003e\u0027, \u00271500m time min:\u0027, round(1500/v/60,2))",
"description": "Compute required 4.17 m/s pace and compare to demonstrated humanoid running speeds to assess feasibility."
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq2"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-07-24T00:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nWorld Internet Conference: [Beijing to host second World Humanoid Robot Games in August](https://www.wicinternet.org/2026-04/26/c_1178922.htm)\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"e3d2374ea8a0d881\", \"sheet_id\": \"112\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if, in the 2026 [World Humanoid Robot Games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Humanoid_Robot_Games), the winning time is under 6 minutes for the 1,500 meter run. Otherwise (including if the event is not held before September 1, 2026), the question resolves as **No**.",
"question_type": "binary",
"title": "Will the 2026 World Humanoid Robot Games 1,500-meter run be won by a robot finishing in under 6 minutes?"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 4,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 1.39,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "3 pages",
"tool_name": "wikipedia_lookup"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.64,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "13 articles",
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 35.46,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "12 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.0,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Compute required 4.17 m/s pace and compare to demonstrated h",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "Beijing announced it will host the second World Humanoid Robot Games in August 2026.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "The inaugural World Humanoid Robot Games was held in Beijing in August 2025, establishing precedent for the event.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "wikipedia_lookup",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Beijing held a robot half-marathon in April 2026, showing continued Chinese institutional support for humanoid racing events.",
"credibility": 78,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Honor\u0027s Lightning robot completed a 21km half-marathon in 50m26s (~6.9 m/s average) in April 2026, beating the human world record.",
"credibility": 82,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Required pace for sub-6-minute 1,500m is 4.17 m/s (15 km/h); Honor\u0027s half-marathon pace of ~6.9 m/s exceeds this.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Cited Unitree H1/H2 sprint speeds (3.0\u20133.3 m/s) yield 1,500m times of 7.6\u20138.3 minutes, short of the sub-6-minute target.",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Chinese humanoid robots progressed from viral stumbles in 2025 to kung fu flips and gymnastics by early 2026.",
"credibility": 72,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Rental-market reporting notes today\u0027s humanoid robots remain years from reliably replacing human labor, exposing practical limits.",
"credibility": 65,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "The 2025 inaugural robot marathon in April made headlines mainly for robots stumbling, not for fast times.",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "No specific 2025 World Humanoid Robot Games 1,500m winning time was surfaced in the research data.",
"credibility": 40,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "wikipedia_lookup",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No confirmed 2026 Games date, event schedule, or 1,500m inclusion",
"No 2025 Games 1,500m winning time data",
"Half-marathon pace vs. short-track 1,500m sprint pace comparability unclear",
"Which specific robots will enter the 2026 1,500m and their tested speeds"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether a 1,500m event is on the 2026 program",
"Whether top race pace (Honor ~6.9 m/s) transfers to 1,500m format",
"Reliability of robots finishing without falls at high pace",
"Whether the event occurs before September 1, 2026"
],
"n_evidence": 10
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 24.07,
"plan": 16.54,
"research": 35.46,
"synthesis": 18.69
}
}