Show full JSON
{
"forecast": {
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] As of 21 July 2026, PollCheck 7-poll moving average shows Labour at 22.0%, up from 20.1% on 17 July.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Latest individual polls show Labour at 18%, below the smoothed 7-poll average, indicating recent momentum may be softer than the average suggests.\n3. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo simulation anchored on 20.1% estimates P(\u003e20.1% on Aug 31) at 0.628 and median at 20.7%.\n4. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Media reports headline a \u0027Burnham bounce\u0027 with Labour said to have \u0027wiped out Reform UK\u0027s poll lead\u0027 after Burnham became leader on 17 July.\n5. [sq2 | web_search | WEAK cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] New Statesman piece titled \u0027the truth about the Burnham bounce\u0027 suggests skepticism/analysis questioning the magnitude of the surge.\n6. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Burnham described as popular domestically and charismatic, entering office with upbeat mood and bold pledges.\n7. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 65 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Burnham\u0027s leftward tilt and expected borrowing raised UK gilt market jitters, with analysts warning of underestimated risk to UK assets.\n8. [sq2 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Simulation estimates P(2+ point bounce above 22.1%) at 0.243.\n9. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Labour has not exceeded 23.0% in the 7-poll average since mid-July 2025 and stood at 22.0% on 21 July 2026.\n10. [sq3 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Simulation estimates P(Labour average below 23.0% on Aug 31) at 0.874.\n11. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Clacton by-election scheduled 13 August 2026 with Reform UK projected to win overwhelmingly; a possible mid-period political event.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No specific numeric Deltapoll/post-Burnham individual poll figures reported\n - No historical base rate for size/duration of UK PM honeymoon polling bounces\n - No data on Labour trajectory between 21 July and 31 August 2026\n - Reconciliation of 22.0% average vs 18% latest-poll divergence unclear\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether early Burnham bounce sustains or fades by end August\n - Clacton by-election result (13 Aug) impact on national polling\n - How PollCheck\u0027s 7-poll smoothing lags the latest individual polls\n - Effect of gilt-market/economic concerns on Labour support",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.\n\n## Question\nWhat will UK Labour Party\u0027s 7-poll moving average percent be on August 31, 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\n[PollCheck\u0027s 7-poll moving average](https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/gb-polls) draws from every major UK pollster including YouGov, Survation, Opinium, More in Common and JL Partners.\n\n\u003e As of 17 July 2026, the PollCheck 7-poll moving average shows Reform UK leading on 24.9%, ahead of Labour on 20.1% and Conservatives on 20.1%. The Greens on 13.9% and Liberal Democrats on 12.0%.\n\nIn July 2024, after [winning a majority in the House of Commons at the general election](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-4d9584ef-134b-478c-9bdc-783915e8b562), Labour had a polling average of 39.0%, but since mid-July 2025 it hasn\u0027t been above 23.0% (and has been as low as 17.0%).\u0026#x20;\n\nAfter [Sir Keir Starmer resigned in June 2026](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxd00lg599o), [Andy Burnham is expected to become the new Labour leader and Prime Minister](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0mym3339nyo) with the backing of many Labour MPs and trade unions.\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 44672, \"question_id\": 44831}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question will resolve as the 7-poll moving average percentage for the Labour Party for August 31, 2026, according to [PollCheck](https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/gb-polls).\n\n## Fine Print\nThe resolution will be rounded to the nearest tenth of a percentile.\n\n***\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44672) which opened on 2026-07-22 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.\n\n## Range\nThe answer must be a number in [17.45, 23.55] (units: %).\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n- (w=0.40) Will Labour\u0027s 7-poll moving average on August 31, 2026 be higher than its July 17, 2026 level of 20.1%? \u2014 The question is anchored near 20.1%; whether the new Burnham leadership produces a bounce or continued decline is the ce\n- (w=0.35) Will the new Labour leader (Andy Burnham) generate a measurable polling \u0027honeymoon\u0027 bounce of 2+ points by end of August 2026? \u2014 New leaders/PMs often get a short-term uplift; the magnitude of any Burnham bounce directly shifts the resolution value \n- (w=0.25) Will Labour\u0027s polling average remain below 23.0% (the ceiling it hasn\u0027t exceeded since mid-July 2025) on August 31, 2026? \u2014 Establishes the plausible upper bound; sustained structural weakness caps how high the average can realistically go.\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] As of 21 July 2026, PollCheck 7-poll moving average shows Labour at 22.0%, up from 20.1% on 17 July.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Latest individual polls show Labour at 18%, below the smoothed 7-poll average, indicating recent momentum may be softer than the average suggests.\n3. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo simulation anchored on 20.1% estimates P(\u003e20.1% on Aug 31) at 0.628 and median at 20.7%.\n4. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Media reports headline a \u0027Burnham bounce\u0027 with Labour said to have \u0027wiped out Reform UK\u0027s poll lead\u0027 after Burnham became leader on 17 July.\n5. [sq2 | web_search | WEAK cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] New Statesman piece titled \u0027the truth about the Burnham bounce\u0027 suggests skepticism/analysis questioning the magnitude of the surge.\n6. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Burnham described as popular domestically and charismatic, entering office with upbeat mood and bold pledges.\n7. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 65 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Burnham\u0027s leftward tilt and expected borrowing raised UK gilt market jitters, with analysts warning of underestimated risk to UK assets.\n8. [sq2 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Simulation estimates P(2+ point bounce above 22.1%) at 0.243.\n9. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Labour has not exceeded 23.0% in the 7-poll average since mid-July 2025 and stood at 22.0% on 21 July 2026.\n10. [sq3 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Simulation estimates P(Labour average below 23.0% on Aug 31) at 0.874.\n11. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Clacton by-election scheduled 13 August 2026 with Reform UK projected to win overwhelmingly; a possible mid-period political event.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No specific numeric Deltapoll/post-Burnham individual poll figures reported\n - No historical base rate for size/duration of UK PM honeymoon polling bounces\n - No data on Labour trajectory between 21 July and 31 August 2026\n - Reconciliation of 22.0% average vs 18% latest-poll divergence unclear\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether early Burnham bounce sustains or fades by end August\n - Clacton by-election result (13 Aug) impact on national polling\n - How PollCheck\u0027s 7-poll smoothing lags the latest individual polls\n - Effect of gilt-market/economic concerns on Labour support\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).\n (c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.\n (d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.\n (e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).\n (f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.\n- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.\n- Don\u0027t pile mass at one value \u2014 if you\u0027re tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.\n- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen \u2014 don\u0027t override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.\n- **Relative-return / spread questions (\"how much will X\u0027s return exceed Y\u0027s\").** A near-zero median is usually right, but size the TAILS to the more VOLATILE leg, not to a generic 2-3pp spread. Two broad equity indices (e.g. Nasdaq-100 vs S\u0026P 500) do stay within roughly \u00b12-3pp over a two-week window. But when one leg is a commodity (crude oil, gold) or a single high-beta stock (e.g. Nvidia), the two-week realized spread regularly reaches \u00b110pp or more \u2014 crude-vs-equity spreads have hit \u00b118pp. In those cases set p10/p90 to at least \u00b110pp (\u00b115pp or wider for oil) while keeping the median near the status-quo spread; the 2-3pp intuition applies only to index-vs-index.\n- **Heavy-tailed one-off magnitudes (opening-weekend box office, product-launch or debut numbers).** Pre-event tracking for these routinely misses by \u00b140% or more, and results land both far above and far below the consensus. Do NOT treat the displayed [min, max] range as the plausible range or clamp p10/p90 to its edges: the outcome can fall outside the range in either direction (recent opening weekends resolved ~7% above a displayed ceiling in one case and roughly half the displayed floor in another). Set p10/p90 wide enough that a 2x-or-0.5x surprise versus your central estimate still lands inside the interval, and when concrete current tracking disagrees with historical/franchise base rates, weight the tracking.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution \u2014 6-10 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"p10\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p25\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p50\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p75\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p90\": \u003cnumber\u003e\n}\n\nPercentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 \u003c= p25 \u003c= p50 \u003c= p75 \u003c= p90).\n",
"models": [
"opus"
],
"p50": 21.4,
"percentiles": {
"0.1": 19.2,
"0.25": 20.4,
"0.5": 21.4,
"0.75": 22.4,
"0.9": 23.2
},
"rationale": "(a) About 6 weeks until resolution. (b) Status quo: PollCheck showed 22.0% on 21 July 2026, up from 20.1% on 17 July, reflecting an early Burnham bounce. (c) If the current upward trend continues Labour could push toward the 23% ceiling, but new-leader honeymoons typically peak early and partially fade within weeks. (d) Experts note the \u0027Burnham bounce\u0027 is real but likely modest; Labour hasn\u0027t exceeded 23.0% since mid-July 2025, creating a soft structural ceiling. Simulations put P(below 23.0%) ~0.87 and median near 20.7-21. (e) LOW scenario: honeymoon fades, gilt-market jitters and a heavy Reform win in the 13 Aug Clacton by-election drag the average back toward 19-20 as the 7-poll smoothing catches up to softer individual polls (some already at 18%). (f) HIGH scenario: sustained bounce, favorable media, Burnham consolidates the left, pushing the average near the 23% ceiling. I center the distribution near 21.3-21.5, slightly below the current 22.0% to account for likely bounce fade and the divergence with softer latest polls, with a fairly wide spread bounded by the 17.45-23.55 range and the empirical ~23% ceiling."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "politics",
"n_sub_qs": 3,
"n_tools": 4,
"reasoning_approach": "",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will Labour\u0027s 7-poll moving average on August 31, 2026 be higher than its July 17, 2026 level of 20.1%?",
"rationale": "The question is anchored near 20.1%; whether the new Burnham leadership produces a bounce or continued decline is the central driver.",
"weight": 0.4
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will the new Labour leader (Andy Burnham) generate a measurable polling \u0027honeymoon\u0027 bounce of 2+ points by end of August 2026?",
"rationale": "New leaders/PMs often get a short-term uplift; the magnitude of any Burnham bounce directly shifts the resolution value upward.",
"weight": 0.35
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will Labour\u0027s polling average remain below 23.0% (the ceiling it hasn\u0027t exceeded since mid-July 2025) on August 31, 2026?",
"rationale": "Establishes the plausible upper bound; sustained structural weakness caps how high the average can realistically go.",
"weight": 0.25
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Latest UK opinion polling for the Labour Party in July and August 2026, especially PollCheck 7-poll moving average and any bounce following Andy Burnham becoming Labour leader and Prime Minister after Keir Starmer\u0027s June 2026 resignation.",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "What will UK Labour Party\u0027s 7-poll moving average percent be on August 31, 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"PollCheck Labour 7-poll moving average August 2026",
"Labour polling Andy Burnham leader bounce 2026",
"UK opinion poll Labour Reform Conservative August 2026"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_days": 60,
"queries": [
"Andy Burnham Labour leader poll bounce 2026",
"Labour Party polling collapse Reform UK 2026",
"UK Westminster voting intention August 2026"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
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"tool_name": "article_search"
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"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\n# Model Labour average as anchored at 20.1 with uncertainty from leadership change\n# Base: recent range 17-23, current 20.1, possible Burnham honeymoon bounce\nnp.random.seed(0)\nn=100000\nbase=20.1\n# leadership bounce: mixture - some chance of small negative drift, some chance of +0-4 bounce\nbounce=np.where(np.random.rand(n)\u003c0.6, np.random.normal(1.5,1.5,n), np.random.normal(-0.5,1.0,n))\nnoise=np.random.normal(0,0.8,n)\nresult=np.clip(base+bounce+noise,15,28)\nfor q in [5,25,50,75,95]:\n print(q, round(np.percentile(result,q),1))\nprint(\u0027P(\u003e20.1)\u0027, round((result\u003e20.1).mean(),3))\nprint(\u0027P(\u003e=2pt bounce, \u003e22.1)\u0027, round((result\u003e22.1).mean(),3))\nprint(\u0027P(\u003c23.0)\u0027, round((result\u003c23.0).mean(),3))",
"description": "Monte Carlo of Labour average around 20.1 anchor with possible Burnham honeymoon bounce to estimate distribution and sub-question probabilities"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
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]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-07-23T17:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\n[PollCheck\u0027s 7-poll moving average](https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/gb-polls) draws from every major UK pollster including YouGov, Survation, Opinium, More in Common and JL Partners.\n\n\u003e As of 17 July 2026, the PollCheck 7-poll moving average shows Reform UK leading on 24.9%, ahead of Labour on 20.1% and Conservatives on 20.1%. The Greens on 13.9% and Liberal Democrats on 12.0%.\n\nIn July 2024, after [winning a majority in the House of Commons at the general election](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-4d9584ef-134b-478c-9bdc-783915e8b562), Labour had a polling average of 39.0%, but since mid-July 2025 it hasn\u0027t been above 23.0% (and has been as low as 17.0%).\u0026#x20;\n\nAfter [Sir Keir Starmer resigned in June 2026](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxd00lg599o), [Andy Burnham is expected to become the new Labour leader and Prime Minister](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0mym3339nyo) with the backing of many Labour MPs and trade unions.\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 44672, \"question_id\": 44831}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question will resolve as the 7-poll moving average percentage for the Labour Party for August 31, 2026, according to [PollCheck](https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/gb-polls).\n\n## Fine Print\nThe resolution will be rounded to the nearest tenth of a percentile.\n\n***\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44672) which opened on 2026-07-22 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.",
"open_lower": true,
"open_upper": true,
"q_max": 23.55,
"q_min": 17.45,
"question_type": "numeric",
"title": "What will UK Labour Party\u0027s 7-poll moving average percent be on August 31, 2026?",
"units": "%"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 4,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 34.53,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "16 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
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{
"elapsed_s": 54.82,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "0 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
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"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "25 articles",
"tool_name": "article_search"
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{
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"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Monte Carlo of Labour average around 20.1 anchor with possib",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "As of 21 July 2026, PollCheck 7-poll moving average shows Labour at 22.0%, up from 20.1% on 17 July.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Latest individual polls show Labour at 18%, below the smoothed 7-poll average, indicating recent momentum may be softer than the average suggests.",
"credibility": 65,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Monte Carlo simulation anchored on 20.1% estimates P(\u003e20.1% on Aug 31) at 0.628 and median at 20.7%.",
"credibility": 35,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Media reports headline a \u0027Burnham bounce\u0027 with Labour said to have \u0027wiped out Reform UK\u0027s poll lead\u0027 after Burnham became leader on 17 July.",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "New Statesman piece titled \u0027the truth about the Burnham bounce\u0027 suggests skepticism/analysis questioning the magnitude of the surge.",
"credibility": 55,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Burnham described as popular domestically and charismatic, entering office with upbeat mood and bold pledges.",
"credibility": 55,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Burnham\u0027s leftward tilt and expected borrowing raised UK gilt market jitters, with analysts warning of underestimated risk to UK assets.",
"credibility": 65,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Simulation estimates P(2+ point bounce above 22.1%) at 0.243.",
"credibility": 35,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Labour has not exceeded 23.0% in the 7-poll average since mid-July 2025 and stood at 22.0% on 21 July 2026.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Simulation estimates P(Labour average below 23.0% on Aug 31) at 0.874.",
"credibility": 35,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Clacton by-election scheduled 13 August 2026 with Reform UK projected to win overwhelmingly; a possible mid-period political event.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No specific numeric Deltapoll/post-Burnham individual poll figures reported",
"No historical base rate for size/duration of UK PM honeymoon polling bounces",
"No data on Labour trajectory between 21 July and 31 August 2026",
"Reconciliation of 22.0% average vs 18% latest-poll divergence unclear"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether early Burnham bounce sustains or fades by end August",
"Clacton by-election result (13 Aug) impact on national polling",
"How PollCheck\u0027s 7-poll smoothing lags the latest individual polls",
"Effect of gilt-market/economic concerns on Labour support"
],
"n_evidence": 11
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 22.88,
"plan": 28.28,
"research": 54.82,
"synthesis": 21.01
}
}