The current favorability level (sq1) is the dominant anchor, adjusted by recent trend (sq2) and modulated by political salience (sq3) and possible positive catalysts (sq4); these blend via weighted average into a central estimate, with the Monte Carlo providing an uncertainty distribution around it.
## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?" → Yes: 1.00, Volume: $172.9K
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | UP | DATED] Silver Bulletin aggregate showed Musk at 37% favorable / 55% unfavorable as of July 4, 2025, his highest unfavorability since tracker inception. 2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | DATED] July 2025 Gallup poll showed Musk at 33% favorable, 61% unfavorable, finishing last among 14 world figures. 3. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo random-walk projection to August 2026 yields mean 36.8% favorability, with 75th percentile at 39.6% and 90th at 42.1%. 4. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 82 | UP | DATED] Musk's unfavorability rose 10 points over first half of 2025 per Silver Bulletin aggregation. 5. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] Republican favorability toward Musk fell from 78% (March) to 62% (June 2025) per Quinnipiac; independents dropped from 42% to 27%. 6. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | DATED] AP-NORC June 2025 poll showed Musk unfavorability at 57%, consistent with April, suggesting stabilization rather than continued decline. 7. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Musk spent three days testifying in a high-profile April-May 2026 lawsuit against OpenAI/Sam Altman, generating controversial coverage. 8. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 82 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] A federal judge chastised Musk for divisive X posts during the OpenAI trial in May 2026. 9. [sq4 | article_search | STRONG cred 90 | DOWN | RECENT] SpaceX IPO'd June 12, 2026 at ~$1.77T valuation, shares rallied 30%+, becoming sixth most-valuable US company. 10. [sq4 | claude_news | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | DATED] NDTV/Reuters-Ipsos reported Musk favorability at 34%, lower than Trump, amid divisive SpaceX popularity split by party. 11. [sq4 | article_search | WEAK cred 65 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Some investors called SpaceX's IPO valuation 'stupid' and 'really aggressive,' tempering the positive image narrative. ## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?" → Yes: 1.00, Volume: $172.9K Information gaps: - No Silver Bulletin favorability data from 2026 (only mid-2025 figures found) - No polling on whether SpaceX IPO measurably boosted Musk favorability - No net-favorability trend data for the trailing 6 months to Aug 2026 - Missing base rate for how quickly celebrity/political favorability recovers after peaks Key uncertainties: - Whether IPO success and reduced Trump ties lifted favorability above 40% - Whether the OpenAI trial coverage helped or hurt his image - Direction of Republican/independent favorability recovery in 2026 - Exact Silver Bulletin CSV 'approve' value near resolution date
You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.
## Question
What will be Elon Musk's favorability rating on August 31, 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
NDTV: [SpaceX IPO: Musk's Firm Surges Past Boeing, Blue Origin In Popularity Ahead Of Record Listing](https://www.ndtvprofit.com/markets/spacex-ipo-elon-musk-firm-surges-past-boeing-blue-origin-in-popularity-ahead-of-record-listing-11622638): "For Americans who identify SpaceX with its CEO, billionaire Elon Musk, who was instrumental in the early months of Republican President Donald Trump's second term, the firm is also rather divisive. In the Reuters/Ipsos survey, 74% of Republicans said they had a positive opinion of SpaceX, compared to 32% of Democrats and 49% of all Americans. At 34%, Musk's own favorability rating was marginally lower than Trump's."
`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "079090476c09eac9", "sheet_id": "102"}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as the favorability rating for Elon Musk shown at the Silver Bulletin's [How popular is Elon Musk?](https://www.natesilver.net/p/elon-musk-polls-popularity-nate-silver-bulletin), when accessed by Metaculus on or after September 1, 2026.
## Fine Print
Between the value shown in the chart and the csv file under the chart ("Get the data"), the csv file takes precedence. See the "approve" column in the csv.
## Range
The answer must be a number in [20, 60] (units: %).
## Sub-question decomposition (planner)
- (w=0.40) Will Elon Musk's current favorability rating (per Silver Bulletin) be below 40% as of the most recent available data? — Establishes the current baseline level, which is the strongest anchor for the August 2026 value.
- (w=0.30) Will Musk's net favorability trend be declining over the trailing 6 months? — Direction of recent momentum indicates whether the value will drift up or down toward August 2026.
- (w=0.20) Will Musk remain politically prominent/controversial (e.g. tied to Trump administration or high-profile political activity) through mid-2026? — Political salience drives polarization and depresses favorability; disengagement could allow partial recovery.
- (w=0.10) Will there be a major positive news catalyst (e.g. successful SpaceX IPO, business milestone) boosting Musk's image before August 2026? — Upside events could lift favorability from current lows.
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | UP | DATED] Silver Bulletin aggregate showed Musk at 37% favorable / 55% unfavorable as of July 4, 2025, his highest unfavorability since tracker inception.
2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | DATED] July 2025 Gallup poll showed Musk at 33% favorable, 61% unfavorable, finishing last among 14 world figures.
3. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo random-walk projection to August 2026 yields mean 36.8% favorability, with 75th percentile at 39.6% and 90th at 42.1%.
4. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 82 | UP | DATED] Musk's unfavorability rose 10 points over first half of 2025 per Silver Bulletin aggregation.
5. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] Republican favorability toward Musk fell from 78% (March) to 62% (June 2025) per Quinnipiac; independents dropped from 42% to 27%.
6. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | DATED] AP-NORC June 2025 poll showed Musk unfavorability at 57%, consistent with April, suggesting stabilization rather than continued decline.
7. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Musk spent three days testifying in a high-profile April-May 2026 lawsuit against OpenAI/Sam Altman, generating controversial coverage.
8. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 82 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] A federal judge chastised Musk for divisive X posts during the OpenAI trial in May 2026.
9. [sq4 | article_search | STRONG cred 90 | DOWN | RECENT] SpaceX IPO'd June 12, 2026 at ~$1.77T valuation, shares rallied 30%+, becoming sixth most-valuable US company.
10. [sq4 | claude_news | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | DATED] NDTV/Reuters-Ipsos reported Musk favorability at 34%, lower than Trump, amid divisive SpaceX popularity split by party.
11. [sq4 | article_search | WEAK cred 65 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Some investors called SpaceX's IPO valuation 'stupid' and 'really aggressive,' tempering the positive image narrative.
## Cross-Market Signals
### Polymarket
- "Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?" → Yes: 1.00, Volume: $172.9K
Information gaps:
- No Silver Bulletin favorability data from 2026 (only mid-2025 figures found)
- No polling on whether SpaceX IPO measurably boosted Musk favorability
- No net-favorability trend data for the trailing 6 months to Aug 2026
- Missing base rate for how quickly celebrity/political favorability recovers after peaks
Key uncertainties:
- Whether IPO success and reduced Trump ties lifted favorability above 40%
- Whether the OpenAI trial coverage helped or hurt his image
- Direction of Republican/independent favorability recovery in 2026
- Exact Silver Bulletin CSV 'approve' value near resolution date
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).
(c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.
(d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.
(e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).
(f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).
## Calibration guidance
- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.
- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.
- Don't pile mass at one value — if you're tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.
- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen — don't override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution — 6-10 sentences total>",
"p10": <number>,
"p25": <number>,
"p50": <number>,
"p75": <number>,
"p90": <number>
}
Percentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 <= p25 <= p50 <= p75 <= p90).
{
"forecast": {
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | UP | DATED] Silver Bulletin aggregate showed Musk at 37% favorable / 55% unfavorable as of July 4, 2025, his highest unfavorability since tracker inception.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | DATED] July 2025 Gallup poll showed Musk at 33% favorable, 61% unfavorable, finishing last among 14 world figures.\n3. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo random-walk projection to August 2026 yields mean 36.8% favorability, with 75th percentile at 39.6% and 90th at 42.1%.\n4. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 82 | UP | DATED] Musk\u0027s unfavorability rose 10 points over first half of 2025 per Silver Bulletin aggregation.\n5. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] Republican favorability toward Musk fell from 78% (March) to 62% (June 2025) per Quinnipiac; independents dropped from 42% to 27%.\n6. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | DATED] AP-NORC June 2025 poll showed Musk unfavorability at 57%, consistent with April, suggesting stabilization rather than continued decline.\n7. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Musk spent three days testifying in a high-profile April-May 2026 lawsuit against OpenAI/Sam Altman, generating controversial coverage.\n8. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 82 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] A federal judge chastised Musk for divisive X posts during the OpenAI trial in May 2026.\n9. [sq4 | article_search | STRONG cred 90 | DOWN | RECENT] SpaceX IPO\u0027d June 12, 2026 at ~$1.77T valuation, shares rallied 30%+, becoming sixth most-valuable US company.\n10. [sq4 | claude_news | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | DATED] NDTV/Reuters-Ipsos reported Musk favorability at 34%, lower than Trump, amid divisive SpaceX popularity split by party.\n11. [sq4 | article_search | WEAK cred 65 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Some investors called SpaceX\u0027s IPO valuation \u0027stupid\u0027 and \u0027really aggressive,\u0027 tempering the positive image narrative.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 1.00, Volume: $172.9K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No Silver Bulletin favorability data from 2026 (only mid-2025 figures found)\n - No polling on whether SpaceX IPO measurably boosted Musk favorability\n - No net-favorability trend data for the trailing 6 months to Aug 2026\n - Missing base rate for how quickly celebrity/political favorability recovers after peaks\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether IPO success and reduced Trump ties lifted favorability above 40%\n - Whether the OpenAI trial coverage helped or hurt his image\n - Direction of Republican/independent favorability recovery in 2026\n - Exact Silver Bulletin CSV \u0027approve\u0027 value near resolution date",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.\n\n## Question\nWhat will be Elon Musk\u0027s favorability rating on August 31, 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nNDTV: [SpaceX IPO: Musk\u0027s Firm Surges Past Boeing, Blue Origin In Popularity Ahead Of Record Listing](https://www.ndtvprofit.com/markets/spacex-ipo-elon-musk-firm-surges-past-boeing-blue-origin-in-popularity-ahead-of-record-listing-11622638): \"For Americans who identify SpaceX with its CEO, billionaire Elon Musk, who was instrumental in the early months of Republican President Donald Trump\u0027s second term, the firm is also rather divisive. In the Reuters/Ipsos survey, 74% of Republicans said they had a positive opinion of SpaceX, compared to 32% of Democrats and 49% of all Americans. At 34%, Musk\u0027s own favorability rating was marginally lower than Trump\u0027s.\"\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"079090476c09eac9\", \"sheet_id\": \"102\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the favorability rating for Elon Musk shown at the Silver Bulletin\u0027s [How popular is Elon Musk?](https://www.natesilver.net/p/elon-musk-polls-popularity-nate-silver-bulletin), when accessed by Metaculus on or after September 1, 2026.\n\n## Fine Print\nBetween the value shown in the chart and the csv file under the chart (\"Get the data\"), the csv file takes precedence. See the \"approve\" column in the csv.\n\n## Range\nThe answer must be a number in [20, 60] (units: %).\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n- (w=0.40) Will Elon Musk\u0027s current favorability rating (per Silver Bulletin) be below 40% as of the most recent available data? \u2014 Establishes the current baseline level, which is the strongest anchor for the August 2026 value.\n- (w=0.30) Will Musk\u0027s net favorability trend be declining over the trailing 6 months? \u2014 Direction of recent momentum indicates whether the value will drift up or down toward August 2026.\n- (w=0.20) Will Musk remain politically prominent/controversial (e.g. tied to Trump administration or high-profile political activity) through mid-2026? \u2014 Political salience drives polarization and depresses favorability; disengagement could allow partial recovery.\n- (w=0.10) Will there be a major positive news catalyst (e.g. successful SpaceX IPO, business milestone) boosting Musk\u0027s image before August 2026? \u2014 Upside events could lift favorability from current lows.\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | UP | DATED] Silver Bulletin aggregate showed Musk at 37% favorable / 55% unfavorable as of July 4, 2025, his highest unfavorability since tracker inception.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | DATED] July 2025 Gallup poll showed Musk at 33% favorable, 61% unfavorable, finishing last among 14 world figures.\n3. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo random-walk projection to August 2026 yields mean 36.8% favorability, with 75th percentile at 39.6% and 90th at 42.1%.\n4. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 82 | UP | DATED] Musk\u0027s unfavorability rose 10 points over first half of 2025 per Silver Bulletin aggregation.\n5. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] Republican favorability toward Musk fell from 78% (March) to 62% (June 2025) per Quinnipiac; independents dropped from 42% to 27%.\n6. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | DATED] AP-NORC June 2025 poll showed Musk unfavorability at 57%, consistent with April, suggesting stabilization rather than continued decline.\n7. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Musk spent three days testifying in a high-profile April-May 2026 lawsuit against OpenAI/Sam Altman, generating controversial coverage.\n8. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 82 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] A federal judge chastised Musk for divisive X posts during the OpenAI trial in May 2026.\n9. [sq4 | article_search | STRONG cred 90 | DOWN | RECENT] SpaceX IPO\u0027d June 12, 2026 at ~$1.77T valuation, shares rallied 30%+, becoming sixth most-valuable US company.\n10. [sq4 | claude_news | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | DATED] NDTV/Reuters-Ipsos reported Musk favorability at 34%, lower than Trump, amid divisive SpaceX popularity split by party.\n11. [sq4 | article_search | WEAK cred 65 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Some investors called SpaceX\u0027s IPO valuation \u0027stupid\u0027 and \u0027really aggressive,\u0027 tempering the positive image narrative.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 1.00, Volume: $172.9K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No Silver Bulletin favorability data from 2026 (only mid-2025 figures found)\n - No polling on whether SpaceX IPO measurably boosted Musk favorability\n - No net-favorability trend data for the trailing 6 months to Aug 2026\n - Missing base rate for how quickly celebrity/political favorability recovers after peaks\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether IPO success and reduced Trump ties lifted favorability above 40%\n - Whether the OpenAI trial coverage helped or hurt his image\n - Direction of Republican/independent favorability recovery in 2026\n - Exact Silver Bulletin CSV \u0027approve\u0027 value near resolution date\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).\n (c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.\n (d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.\n (e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).\n (f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.\n- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.\n- Don\u0027t pile mass at one value \u2014 if you\u0027re tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.\n- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen \u2014 don\u0027t override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution \u2014 6-10 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"p10\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p25\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p50\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p75\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p90\": \u003cnumber\u003e\n}\n\nPercentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 \u003c= p25 \u003c= p50 \u003c= p75 \u003c= p90).\n",
"models": [
"opus"
],
"p50": 37.5,
"percentiles": {
"0.1": 32.0,
"0.25": 35.0,
"0.5": 37.5,
"0.75": 40.5,
"0.9": 43.5
},
"rationale": "(a) The question resolves after Sept 1, 2026, about 14 months beyond the most recent solid data (mid-2025). (b) Status quo value from Silver Bulletin was ~37% favorable as of July 2025; Gallup showed 33%. (c) The trend through mid-2025 was declining (unfavorability up 10 points), but AP-NORC suggested stabilization, so continued sharp decline is not guaranteed\u2014favorability may drift sideways or recover slightly as Musk distanced from the Trump administration. (d) Monte Carlo random walk projects mean ~36.8% with modest upside; base rates for controversial figures show slow, incomplete recovery from lows. (e) A LOW outcome (~32-33%) arises if continued divisive political/legal activity (the OpenAI trial, controversial X posts) keeps polarization high and Democrats/independents deeply hostile. (f) A HIGH outcome (~42-44%) arises if the successful June 2026 SpaceX IPO and reduced Trump ties allow partial recovery, especially among independents and moderate Republicans. I anchor the median near the status quo ~37%, with a slight tilt allowing modest recovery given the IPO and reduced political entanglement. Favorability is sticky and polarized, so I keep the median around 37-38% but widen tails to account for unknown catalysts and polling variability."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "politics",
"n_sub_qs": 4,
"n_tools": 4,
"reasoning_approach": "The current favorability level (sq1) is the dominant anchor, adjusted by recent trend (sq2) and modulated by political salience (sq3) and possible positive catalysts (sq4); these blend via weighted average into a central estimate, with the Monte Carlo providing an uncertainty distribution around it.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will Elon Musk\u0027s current favorability rating (per Silver Bulletin) be below 40% as of the most recent available data?",
"rationale": "Establishes the current baseline level, which is the strongest anchor for the August 2026 value.",
"weight": 0.4
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will Musk\u0027s net favorability trend be declining over the trailing 6 months?",
"rationale": "Direction of recent momentum indicates whether the value will drift up or down toward August 2026.",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will Musk remain politically prominent/controversial (e.g. tied to Trump administration or high-profile political activity) through mid-2026?",
"rationale": "Political salience drives polarization and depresses favorability; disengagement could allow partial recovery.",
"weight": 0.2
},
{
"id": "sq4",
"question": "Will there be a major positive news catalyst (e.g. successful SpaceX IPO, business milestone) boosting Musk\u0027s image before August 2026?",
"rationale": "Upside events could lift favorability from current lows.",
"weight": 0.1
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find the latest Elon Musk favorability/popularity rating from Nate Silver\u0027s Silver Bulletin \u0027How popular is Elon Musk?\u0027 tracker, including the current approve percentage and recent trend over the past 6-12 months. Also find recent polling from Reuters/Ipsos, YouGov, etc.",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "What will be Elon Musk\u0027s favorability rating on August 31, 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"Elon Musk favorability rating 2025 latest poll",
"Silver Bulletin Elon Musk popularity approve",
"Elon Musk Trump administration political activity 2025 2026"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_days": 120,
"queries": [
"Elon Musk favorability rating poll",
"SpaceX IPO 2026 Elon Musk",
"Elon Musk political controversy Trump"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\n# Model Musk favorability as a random walk from current baseline\n# Current approx favorability ~35-40% based on 2025 polling\nnp.random.seed(42)\ncurrent = 38.0\nn = 50000\n# monthly drift and volatility over ~12 months to Aug 2026\nmonths = 12\ndrift_per_month = -0.1 # slight downward given political polarization\nvol_per_month = 1.2\nsims = current + np.cumsum(np.random.normal(drift_per_month, vol_per_month, (n, months)), axis=1)[:, -1]\nsims = np.clip(sims, 20, 60)\nprint(\u0027Mean:\u0027, np.mean(sims))\nprint(\u0027Median:\u0027, np.median(sims))\nprint(\u002710th pct:\u0027, np.percentile(sims, 10))\nprint(\u002725th pct:\u0027, np.percentile(sims, 25))\nprint(\u002775th pct:\u0027, np.percentile(sims, 75))\nprint(\u002790th pct:\u0027, np.percentile(sims, 90))",
"description": "Monte Carlo random-walk projection of Musk favorability from current baseline to August 2026."
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-07-15T21:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nNDTV: [SpaceX IPO: Musk\u0027s Firm Surges Past Boeing, Blue Origin In Popularity Ahead Of Record Listing](https://www.ndtvprofit.com/markets/spacex-ipo-elon-musk-firm-surges-past-boeing-blue-origin-in-popularity-ahead-of-record-listing-11622638): \"For Americans who identify SpaceX with its CEO, billionaire Elon Musk, who was instrumental in the early months of Republican President Donald Trump\u0027s second term, the firm is also rather divisive. In the Reuters/Ipsos survey, 74% of Republicans said they had a positive opinion of SpaceX, compared to 32% of Democrats and 49% of all Americans. At 34%, Musk\u0027s own favorability rating was marginally lower than Trump\u0027s.\"\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"079090476c09eac9\", \"sheet_id\": \"102\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the favorability rating for Elon Musk shown at the Silver Bulletin\u0027s [How popular is Elon Musk?](https://www.natesilver.net/p/elon-musk-polls-popularity-nate-silver-bulletin), when accessed by Metaculus on or after September 1, 2026.\n\n## Fine Print\nBetween the value shown in the chart and the csv file under the chart (\"Get the data\"), the csv file takes precedence. See the \"approve\" column in the csv.",
"open_lower": true,
"open_upper": true,
"q_max": 60,
"q_min": 20,
"question_type": "numeric",
"title": "What will be Elon Musk\u0027s favorability rating on August 31, 2026?",
"units": "%"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 1.00, Volume: $172.9K",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 4,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 40.58,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "19 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 69.69,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "0 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.59,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "24 articles",
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.15,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Monte Carlo random-walk projection of Musk favorability from",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "Silver Bulletin aggregate showed Musk at 37% favorable / 55% unfavorable as of July 4, 2025, his highest unfavorability since tracker inception.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "July 2025 Gallup poll showed Musk at 33% favorable, 61% unfavorable, finishing last among 14 world figures.",
"credibility": 88,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Monte Carlo random-walk projection to August 2026 yields mean 36.8% favorability, with 75th percentile at 39.6% and 90th at 42.1%.",
"credibility": 35,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Musk\u0027s unfavorability rose 10 points over first half of 2025 per Silver Bulletin aggregation.",
"credibility": 82,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Republican favorability toward Musk fell from 78% (March) to 62% (June 2025) per Quinnipiac; independents dropped from 42% to 27%.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "AP-NORC June 2025 poll showed Musk unfavorability at 57%, consistent with April, suggesting stabilization rather than continued decline.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Musk spent three days testifying in a high-profile April-May 2026 lawsuit against OpenAI/Sam Altman, generating controversial coverage.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "A federal judge chastised Musk for divisive X posts during the OpenAI trial in May 2026.",
"credibility": 82,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "SpaceX IPO\u0027d June 12, 2026 at ~$1.77T valuation, shares rallied 30%+, becoming sixth most-valuable US company.",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "NDTV/Reuters-Ipsos reported Musk favorability at 34%, lower than Trump, amid divisive SpaceX popularity split by party.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "claude_news",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "Some investors called SpaceX\u0027s IPO valuation \u0027stupid\u0027 and \u0027really aggressive,\u0027 tempering the positive image narrative.",
"credibility": 65,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No Silver Bulletin favorability data from 2026 (only mid-2025 figures found)",
"No polling on whether SpaceX IPO measurably boosted Musk favorability",
"No net-favorability trend data for the trailing 6 months to Aug 2026",
"Missing base rate for how quickly celebrity/political favorability recovers after peaks"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether IPO success and reduced Trump ties lifted favorability above 40%",
"Whether the OpenAI trial coverage helped or hurt his image",
"Direction of Republican/independent favorability recovery in 2026",
"Exact Silver Bulletin CSV \u0027approve\u0027 value near resolution date"
],
"n_evidence": 11
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 14.94,
"plan": 17.55,
"research": 69.7,
"synthesis": 20.54
}
}