Sub-questions map to the discrete count outcomes (0, 1, 2+, spike) and blend via weighted average, anchored on a Poisson base rate from code_execution and adjusted by current geopolitical risk signals from news search.
## Cross-Market Signals ### No signal found
1. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Poisson base-rate model shows P(at least 1 new Level 4 in a month) ranges from 0.39 (lambda=0.5) to 0.86 (lambda=2.0). 2. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Poisson model gives P(2 or more new Level 4 in a month) between 0.09 (lambda=0.5) and 0.59 (lambda=2.0). 3. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 75 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] As of July 12, 2026, roughly 21-22 countries are at Level 4, most long-standing (Ukraine, Haiti, Afghanistan, etc.). 4. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Most-at-risk countries are already at Level 4, so new issuances require a fresh crisis or a country being newly added. 5. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Venezuela was upgraded to Level 4 in December 2025 after U.S. airstrikes and Maduro's arrest, illustrating crisis-driven upgrades occur. 6. [sq3 | web_search | WEAK cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No specific acute geopolitical crisis for summer 2026 (coup, war escalation) was identified in current news searches. 7. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Level 3 and 4 advisories are reviewed at least every six months, creating routine re-issuance opportunities. 8. [sq1 | claude_news | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Most recent Level 4 advisory noted was Mali, issued June 8, 2026, indicating sporadic new issuances in 2026. ## Cross-Market Signals ### No signal found Information gaps: - No actual historical monthly count of NEW Level 4 issuances to calibrate lambda - Ambiguity: does 're-issued/updated' advisory count as 'new' for resolution? - No specific August 2026 event triggers identified - No Kalshi market data provided Key uncertainties: - True monthly issuance rate (lambda) is unknown - Whether routine periodic re-issuances count toward resolution - Emergence of an unforeseen summer 2026 crisis - Distinction between 'Date Updated' and 'Date Issued' in resolution
You are an elite superforecaster. Estimate the probability of each option for this Metaculus multiple-choice question.
## Question
How many "Level 4 – Do Not Travel" travel advisories will the US State Department issue in August 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
At the time of this question, the most recent was Mali, [issued](https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/international-travel/International-Travel-Country-Information-Pages/Mali.html) June 8, 2026. According to the [State Department](https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/international-travel/before-you-go/about-our-new-products.html) about its Level 4 advisories: "This is the highest advisory level due to greater likelihood of life-threatening risks. The U.S. government may have very limited ability to provide assistance, including during an emergency. The Department of State advises that U.S. citizens not travel to the country or to leave as soon as it is safe to do so. We advise that you write a will prior to traveling and leave DNA samples in case of worst-case scenarios."
`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "a5308a204af218b8", "sheet_id": "106"}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as the number of new Level 4 [travel advisories](https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories.html/) issued by the US Department of State in August 2026.
## Fine Print
Sort by Date Updated to see most recent travel advisories. Filter by Level 4. The resolution amount will be the number of "Level 4: Do not travel" travel advisories shown with a Date Issued in August 2026.
## Options
- Zero
- One
- Two
- Three
- Four or more
## Sub-question decomposition (planner)
- (w=0.40) Will the State Department issue at least 1 new Level 4 advisory in August 2026? — Establishes whether the baseline monthly event occurs at all; most months see 0-2 new Level 4 advisories.
- (w=0.35) Will the State Department issue 2 or more new Level 4 advisories in August 2026? — Captures whether the count reaches the middle-upper range, which depends on new crises/deteriorations.
- (w=0.25) Will an acute geopolitical crisis (coup, war escalation, mass evacuation) emerge in summer 2026 that triggers multiple advisory upgrades? — Tail driver for higher counts (3+); Level 4 spikes cluster around sudden security collapses.
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Poisson base-rate model shows P(at least 1 new Level 4 in a month) ranges from 0.39 (lambda=0.5) to 0.86 (lambda=2.0).
2. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Poisson model gives P(2 or more new Level 4 in a month) between 0.09 (lambda=0.5) and 0.59 (lambda=2.0).
3. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 75 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] As of July 12, 2026, roughly 21-22 countries are at Level 4, most long-standing (Ukraine, Haiti, Afghanistan, etc.).
4. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Most-at-risk countries are already at Level 4, so new issuances require a fresh crisis or a country being newly added.
5. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Venezuela was upgraded to Level 4 in December 2025 after U.S. airstrikes and Maduro's arrest, illustrating crisis-driven upgrades occur.
6. [sq3 | web_search | WEAK cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No specific acute geopolitical crisis for summer 2026 (coup, war escalation) was identified in current news searches.
7. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Level 3 and 4 advisories are reviewed at least every six months, creating routine re-issuance opportunities.
8. [sq1 | claude_news | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Most recent Level 4 advisory noted was Mali, issued June 8, 2026, indicating sporadic new issuances in 2026.
## Cross-Market Signals
### No signal found
Information gaps:
- No actual historical monthly count of NEW Level 4 issuances to calibrate lambda
- Ambiguity: does 're-issued/updated' advisory count as 'new' for resolution?
- No specific August 2026 event triggers identified
- No Kalshi market data provided
Key uncertainties:
- True monthly issuance rate (lambda) is unknown
- Whether routine periodic re-issuances count toward resolution
- Emergence of an unforeseen summer 2026 crisis
- Distinction between 'Date Updated' and 'Date Issued' in resolution
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving probabilities, address these explicitly in your rationale:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The status quo outcome — the option most likely if nothing changes from today.
(c) An outcome that would be SURPRISING but plausible.
## Calibration guidance
- **Status quo anchoring.** Good forecasters put extra weight on the status quo option because the world changes slowly most of the time.
- **Leave moderate probability on most options.** Good forecasters don't drop options to ~0% — leave ≥3-5% on every option to account for unexpected outcomes, unless you have strong specific evidence ruling them out.
- Avoid uniform-distribution laziness — most options are not equally likely.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) for these options appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong prior and stay close to them absent specific contrary evidence.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) above, then explain your distribution — 4-7 sentences total>",
"probabilities": {
"Zero": <prob>,
"One": <prob>,
"Two": <prob>,
"Three": <prob>,
"Four or more": <prob>
}
}
Probabilities MUST sum to ~1.0 (renormalization is applied; close enough is fine).
{
"forecast": {
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Poisson base-rate model shows P(at least 1 new Level 4 in a month) ranges from 0.39 (lambda=0.5) to 0.86 (lambda=2.0).\n2. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Poisson model gives P(2 or more new Level 4 in a month) between 0.09 (lambda=0.5) and 0.59 (lambda=2.0).\n3. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 75 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] As of July 12, 2026, roughly 21-22 countries are at Level 4, most long-standing (Ukraine, Haiti, Afghanistan, etc.).\n4. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Most-at-risk countries are already at Level 4, so new issuances require a fresh crisis or a country being newly added.\n5. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Venezuela was upgraded to Level 4 in December 2025 after U.S. airstrikes and Maduro\u0027s arrest, illustrating crisis-driven upgrades occur.\n6. [sq3 | web_search | WEAK cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No specific acute geopolitical crisis for summer 2026 (coup, war escalation) was identified in current news searches.\n7. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Level 3 and 4 advisories are reviewed at least every six months, creating routine re-issuance opportunities.\n8. [sq1 | claude_news | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Most recent Level 4 advisory noted was Mali, issued June 8, 2026, indicating sporadic new issuances in 2026.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No actual historical monthly count of NEW Level 4 issuances to calibrate lambda\n - Ambiguity: does \u0027re-issued/updated\u0027 advisory count as \u0027new\u0027 for resolution?\n - No specific August 2026 event triggers identified\n - No Kalshi market data provided\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - True monthly issuance rate (lambda) is unknown\n - Whether routine periodic re-issuances count toward resolution\n - Emergence of an unforeseen summer 2026 crisis\n - Distinction between \u0027Date Updated\u0027 and \u0027Date Issued\u0027 in resolution",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Estimate the probability of each option for this Metaculus multiple-choice question.\n\n## Question\nHow many \"Level 4 \u2013 Do Not Travel\" travel advisories will the US State Department issue in August 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nAt the time of this question, the most recent was Mali, [issued](https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/international-travel/International-Travel-Country-Information-Pages/Mali.html) June 8, 2026. According to the [State Department](https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/international-travel/before-you-go/about-our-new-products.html) about its Level 4 advisories: \"This is the highest advisory level due to greater likelihood of life-threatening risks. The U.S. government may have very limited ability to provide assistance, including during an emergency. The Department of State advises that U.S. citizens not travel to the country or to leave as soon as it is safe to do so. We advise that you write a will prior to traveling and leave DNA samples in case of worst-case scenarios.\"\r\n\r\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"a5308a204af218b8\", \"sheet_id\": \"106\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the number of new Level 4 [travel advisories](https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories.html/) issued by the US Department of State in August 2026.\n\n## Fine Print\nSort by Date Updated to see most recent travel advisories. Filter by Level 4. The resolution amount will be the number of \"Level 4: Do not travel\" travel advisories shown with a Date Issued in August 2026.\n\n## Options\n - Zero\n - One\n - Two\n - Three\n - Four or more\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n- (w=0.40) Will the State Department issue at least 1 new Level 4 advisory in August 2026? \u2014 Establishes whether the baseline monthly event occurs at all; most months see 0-2 new Level 4 advisories.\n- (w=0.35) Will the State Department issue 2 or more new Level 4 advisories in August 2026? \u2014 Captures whether the count reaches the middle-upper range, which depends on new crises/deteriorations.\n- (w=0.25) Will an acute geopolitical crisis (coup, war escalation, mass evacuation) emerge in summer 2026 that triggers multiple advisory upgrades? \u2014 Tail driver for higher counts (3+); Level 4 spikes cluster around sudden security collapses.\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Poisson base-rate model shows P(at least 1 new Level 4 in a month) ranges from 0.39 (lambda=0.5) to 0.86 (lambda=2.0).\n2. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Poisson model gives P(2 or more new Level 4 in a month) between 0.09 (lambda=0.5) and 0.59 (lambda=2.0).\n3. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 75 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] As of July 12, 2026, roughly 21-22 countries are at Level 4, most long-standing (Ukraine, Haiti, Afghanistan, etc.).\n4. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Most-at-risk countries are already at Level 4, so new issuances require a fresh crisis or a country being newly added.\n5. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Venezuela was upgraded to Level 4 in December 2025 after U.S. airstrikes and Maduro\u0027s arrest, illustrating crisis-driven upgrades occur.\n6. [sq3 | web_search | WEAK cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No specific acute geopolitical crisis for summer 2026 (coup, war escalation) was identified in current news searches.\n7. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Level 3 and 4 advisories are reviewed at least every six months, creating routine re-issuance opportunities.\n8. [sq1 | claude_news | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Most recent Level 4 advisory noted was Mali, issued June 8, 2026, indicating sporadic new issuances in 2026.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No actual historical monthly count of NEW Level 4 issuances to calibrate lambda\n - Ambiguity: does \u0027re-issued/updated\u0027 advisory count as \u0027new\u0027 for resolution?\n - No specific August 2026 event triggers identified\n - No Kalshi market data provided\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - True monthly issuance rate (lambda) is unknown\n - Whether routine periodic re-issuances count toward resolution\n - Emergence of an unforeseen summer 2026 crisis\n - Distinction between \u0027Date Updated\u0027 and \u0027Date Issued\u0027 in resolution\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving probabilities, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The status quo outcome \u2014 the option most likely if nothing changes from today.\n (c) An outcome that would be SURPRISING but plausible.\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Status quo anchoring.** Good forecasters put extra weight on the status quo option because the world changes slowly most of the time.\n- **Leave moderate probability on most options.** Good forecasters don\u0027t drop options to ~0% \u2014 leave \u22653-5% on every option to account for unexpected outcomes, unless you have strong specific evidence ruling them out.\n- Avoid uniform-distribution laziness \u2014 most options are not equally likely.\n- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) for these options appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong prior and stay close to them absent specific contrary evidence.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) (b) (c) above, then explain your distribution \u2014 4-7 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"probabilities\": {\n \"Zero\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"One\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Two\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Three\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Four or more\": \u003cprob\u003e\n }\n}\n\nProbabilities MUST sum to ~1.0 (renormalization is applied; close enough is fine).\n",
"models": [
"opus"
],
"probabilities": {
"Four or more": 0.16,
"One": 0.26,
"Three": 0.15,
"Two": 0.22,
"Zero": 0.21
},
"rationale": "(a) The question resolves at the end of August 2026, about 1.5 months out from the July 2026 information cutoff, so no specific triggers are yet identifiable. (b) Status quo: most months see only 0-2 genuinely new Level 4 issuances, since the highest-risk countries (Ukraine, Haiti, Afghanistan, ~21 total) are already at Level 4; the most recent noted new issuance was Mali in June 2026, suggesting a sporadic ~1/month pace. (c) A surprising-but-plausible outcome is a cluster of 3+ if an acute crisis (coup, war escalation) erupts, as happened with Venezuela in Dec 2025, or if routine six-month re-reviews cause several advisories to show an August \u0027Date Issued.\u0027 The key ambiguity is whether periodic re-issuances count toward resolution \u2014 with ~21 Level 4 countries reviewed every six months, roughly 3-4 could carry an August date, which pushes probability mass toward higher counts. Balancing the Poisson base rate (lambda ~0.5-2 for genuinely new advisories) against the literal resolution wording that counts any Level 4 with an August \u0027Date Issued,\u0027 I center the distribution on 1-2 while leaving meaningful weight on the tails.",
"top_option": "One"
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "geopolitics",
"n_sub_qs": 3,
"n_tools": 3,
"reasoning_approach": "Sub-questions map to the discrete count outcomes (0, 1, 2+, spike) and blend via weighted average, anchored on a Poisson base rate from code_execution and adjusted by current geopolitical risk signals from news search.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will the State Department issue at least 1 new Level 4 advisory in August 2026?",
"rationale": "Establishes whether the baseline monthly event occurs at all; most months see 0-2 new Level 4 advisories.",
"weight": 0.4
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will the State Department issue 2 or more new Level 4 advisories in August 2026?",
"rationale": "Captures whether the count reaches the middle-upper range, which depends on new crises/deteriorations.",
"weight": 0.35
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will an acute geopolitical crisis (coup, war escalation, mass evacuation) emerge in summer 2026 that triggers multiple advisory upgrades?",
"rationale": "Tail driver for higher counts (3+); Level 4 spikes cluster around sudden security collapses.",
"weight": 0.25
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find how frequently the US State Department issues NEW Level 4 Do Not Travel advisories per month, recent examples in 2025-2026, and typical monthly counts. Also identify countries currently at risk of being upgraded to Level 4 due to instability.",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "How many Level 4 Do Not Travel advisories will the US State Department issue in August 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"State Department Level 4 travel advisory issued 2026",
"new Do Not Travel advisory country upgrade 2026",
"countries at risk coup war instability 2026"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\n# Model monthly count of new Level 4 advisories as Poisson\n# Historical base rate: State Dept issues roughly a handful of new Level 4s per year via reassessment cycles; monthly counts commonly 0-2, occasionally more during crisis periods\nfor lam in [0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0]:\n from scipy.stats import poisson\n p0 = poisson.pmf(0, lam)\n p1 = poisson.pmf(1, lam)\n p2 = poisson.pmf(2, lam)\n p3plus = 1 - poisson.cdf(2, lam)\n print(f\u0027lambda={lam}: P0={p0:.3f} P1={p1:.3f} P2={p2:.3f} P3+={p3plus:.3f}\u0027)",
"description": "Poisson base-rate estimate for monthly new Level 4 advisory counts under several plausible rate assumptions."
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-07-15T00:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nAt the time of this question, the most recent was Mali, [issued](https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/international-travel/International-Travel-Country-Information-Pages/Mali.html) June 8, 2026. According to the [State Department](https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/international-travel/before-you-go/about-our-new-products.html) about its Level 4 advisories: \"This is the highest advisory level due to greater likelihood of life-threatening risks. The U.S. government may have very limited ability to provide assistance, including during an emergency. The Department of State advises that U.S. citizens not travel to the country or to leave as soon as it is safe to do so. We advise that you write a will prior to traveling and leave DNA samples in case of worst-case scenarios.\"\r\n\r\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"a5308a204af218b8\", \"sheet_id\": \"106\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the number of new Level 4 [travel advisories](https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories.html/) issued by the US Department of State in August 2026.\n\n## Fine Print\nSort by Date Updated to see most recent travel advisories. Filter by Level 4. The resolution amount will be the number of \"Level 4: Do not travel\" travel advisories shown with a Date Issued in August 2026.",
"options": [
"Zero",
"One",
"Two",
"Three",
"Four or more"
],
"question_type": "multiple_choice",
"title": "How many \"Level 4 \u2013 Do Not Travel\" travel advisories will the US State Department issue in August 2026?"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 3,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 44.11,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "14 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 95.6,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "0 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.08,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Poisson base-rate estimate for monthly new Level 4 advisory ",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "Poisson base-rate model shows P(at least 1 new Level 4 in a month) ranges from 0.39 (lambda=0.5) to 0.86 (lambda=2.0).",
"credibility": 55,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Poisson model gives P(2 or more new Level 4 in a month) between 0.09 (lambda=0.5) and 0.59 (lambda=2.0).",
"credibility": 55,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "As of July 12, 2026, roughly 21-22 countries are at Level 4, most long-standing (Ukraine, Haiti, Afghanistan, etc.).",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Most-at-risk countries are already at Level 4, so new issuances require a fresh crisis or a country being newly added.",
"credibility": 65,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Venezuela was upgraded to Level 4 in December 2025 after U.S. airstrikes and Maduro\u0027s arrest, illustrating crisis-driven upgrades occur.",
"credibility": 65,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "No specific acute geopolitical crisis for summer 2026 (coup, war escalation) was identified in current news searches.",
"credibility": 40,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Level 3 and 4 advisories are reviewed at least every six months, creating routine re-issuance opportunities.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Most recent Level 4 advisory noted was Mali, issued June 8, 2026, indicating sporadic new issuances in 2026.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "claude_news",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No actual historical monthly count of NEW Level 4 issuances to calibrate lambda",
"Ambiguity: does \u0027re-issued/updated\u0027 advisory count as \u0027new\u0027 for resolution?",
"No specific August 2026 event triggers identified",
"No Kalshi market data provided"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"True monthly issuance rate (lambda) is unknown",
"Whether routine periodic re-issuances count toward resolution",
"Emergence of an unforeseen summer 2026 crisis",
"Distinction between \u0027Date Updated\u0027 and \u0027Date Issued\u0027 in resolution"
],
"n_evidence": 8
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 25.03,
"plan": 22.05,
"research": 95.61,
"synthesis": 15.57
}
}