Blend the official/target schedule signal (sq1) and current hardware readiness (sq2) with a historical slippage base rate (sq3) via weighted average, since all three factors are correlated indicators of whether the launch happens before the deadline.
## Cross-Market Signals ### No signal found
1. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | DATED] Space News reported Chang'e-7 arrived at Wenchang with planned liftoff in second half of 2026, earlier reports suggesting August. 2. [sq1 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | DATED] Wikipedia states Chang'e 7 is expected to launch in August 2026 to target the lunar south pole. 3. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | DATED] Chang'e-7 spacecraft confirmed arrived at Wenchang spaceport for launch preparations on Long March 5. 4. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] News search returned no articles reporting Chang'e-7 delays, integration problems, or schedule slips after arrival at Wenchang. 5. [sq3 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Chang'e 6 was successfully launched in 2024 as China's second lunar sample-return mission, indicating recent program success. ## Cross-Market Signals ### No signal found Information gaps: - No base rate on how often Chinese lunar missions slip past announced launch windows - No recent (post-March 2026) confirmation of specific launch date or rocket integration status - No data on Long March 5 launch cadence or recent delays in 2026 - August target leaves narrow margin before Sept 1 deadline—no info on window flexibility Key uncertainties: - Whether 'second half 2026' target holds to August vs. slips to Sept/later - Any undisclosed technical issues during rocket integration - Reliability of unofficial 'earlier reports' pointing to August - Complexity risk from multi-element spacecraft (orbiter, lander, hopper, rover)
You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates — your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.
## Question
Will China launch Chang'e 7 before September 1, 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
Space News [China’s Chang’e-7 arrives at spaceport for lunar south pole exploration mission](https://spacenews.com/chinas-change-7-arrives-at-spaceport-for-lunar-south-pole-exploration-mission/):
"China’s multi-element Chang’e-7 lunar spacecraft has arrived at Wenchang spaceport for launch preparations ahead of a planned liftoff in the second half of 2026.
Chang’e-7 will be prepared for launch on a Long March 5 rocket from Wenchang, with earlier reports suggesting launch in August."
`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "57654f108660e53a", "sheet_id": "94"}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as **Yes** if the [Chang'e 7 mission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chang%27e_7) is launched before September 1, 2026. For purposes of this question, a launch counts if liftoff occurs, with the vehicle leaving the launch mount under its own power, regardless of what occurs after that point (including a rapid unscheduled disassembly).
## Sub-question decomposition
- (w=0.40) Is the Chang'e 7 launch officially scheduled/targeted for before September 1, 2026? — The reported window is 'second half of 2026' with earlier reports suggesting August; a target date before Sept 1 is nece
- (w=0.35) Have hardware/preparation milestones (spacecraft at Wenchang, rocket integration) progressed on schedule without significant delays? — Spacecraft has arrived at spaceport; on-track integration and testing indicate the launch will occur within the window.
- (w=0.25) Do historical Chinese lunar missions and Long March 5 launches tend to slip past announced windows? — Base rate for schedule slippage in Chinese major lunar/space missions informs likelihood of on-time launch.
Combination rule: **weighted_average**
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | DATED] Space News reported Chang'e-7 arrived at Wenchang with planned liftoff in second half of 2026, earlier reports suggesting August.
2. [sq1 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | DATED] Wikipedia states Chang'e 7 is expected to launch in August 2026 to target the lunar south pole.
3. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | DATED] Chang'e-7 spacecraft confirmed arrived at Wenchang spaceport for launch preparations on Long March 5.
4. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] News search returned no articles reporting Chang'e-7 delays, integration problems, or schedule slips after arrival at Wenchang.
5. [sq3 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Chang'e 6 was successfully launched in 2024 as China's second lunar sample-return mission, indicating recent program success.
## Cross-Market Signals
### No signal found
Information gaps:
- No base rate on how often Chinese lunar missions slip past announced launch windows
- No recent (post-March 2026) confirmation of specific launch date or rocket integration status
- No data on Long March 5 launch cadence or recent delays in 2026
- August target leaves narrow margin before Sept 1 deadline—no info on window flexibility
Key uncertainties:
- Whether 'second half 2026' target holds to August vs. slips to Sept/later
- Any undisclosed technical issues during rocket integration
- Reliability of unofficial 'earlier reports' pointing to August
- Complexity risk from multi-element spacecraft (orbiter, lander, hopper, rover)
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The status quo outcome — what happens if nothing changes from today.
(c) A brief scenario that results in NO.
(d) A brief scenario that results in YES.
## Calibration guidance
- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition — independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.
- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.
- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid >0.97 or <0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological — overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question — move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.
- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or "very recent" claim — especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility — must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.
- **Also provide a holistic estimate** — your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) (d) above — 5-8 sentences total>",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq2": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq3": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>
},
"holistic_p_yes": <float in [0.01, 0.99] — your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition>,
"what_would_change_my_mind": "<1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%>"
}
{
"forecast": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | DATED] Space News reported Chang\u0027e-7 arrived at Wenchang with planned liftoff in second half of 2026, earlier reports suggesting August.\n2. [sq1 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | DATED] Wikipedia states Chang\u0027e 7 is expected to launch in August 2026 to target the lunar south pole.\n3. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | DATED] Chang\u0027e-7 spacecraft confirmed arrived at Wenchang spaceport for launch preparations on Long March 5.\n4. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] News search returned no articles reporting Chang\u0027e-7 delays, integration problems, or schedule slips after arrival at Wenchang.\n5. [sq3 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Chang\u0027e 6 was successfully launched in 2024 as China\u0027s second lunar sample-return mission, indicating recent program success.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No base rate on how often Chinese lunar missions slip past announced launch windows\n - No recent (post-March 2026) confirmation of specific launch date or rocket integration status\n - No data on Long March 5 launch cadence or recent delays in 2026\n - August target leaves narrow margin before Sept 1 deadline\u2014no info on window flexibility\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether \u0027second half 2026\u0027 target holds to August vs. slips to Sept/later\n - Any undisclosed technical issues during rocket integration\n - Reliability of unofficial \u0027earlier reports\u0027 pointing to August\n - Complexity risk from multi-element spacecraft (orbiter, lander, hopper, rover)",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates \u2014 your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.\n\n## Question\nWill China launch Chang\u0027e 7 before September 1, 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nSpace News [China\u2019s Chang\u2019e-7 arrives at spaceport for lunar south pole exploration mission](https://spacenews.com/chinas-change-7-arrives-at-spaceport-for-lunar-south-pole-exploration-mission/): \n\"China\u2019s multi-element Chang\u2019e-7 lunar spacecraft has arrived at Wenchang spaceport for launch preparations ahead of a planned liftoff in the second half of 2026.\n\nChang\u2019e-7 will be prepared for launch on a Long March 5 rocket from Wenchang, with earlier reports suggesting launch in August.\"\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"57654f108660e53a\", \"sheet_id\": \"94\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if the [Chang\u0027e 7 mission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chang%27e_7) is launched before September 1, 2026. For purposes of this question, a launch counts if liftoff occurs, with the vehicle leaving the launch mount under its own power, regardless of what occurs after that point (including a rapid unscheduled disassembly).\n\n## Sub-question decomposition\n- (w=0.40) Is the Chang\u0027e 7 launch officially scheduled/targeted for before September 1, 2026? \u2014 The reported window is \u0027second half of 2026\u0027 with earlier reports suggesting August; a target date before Sept 1 is nece\n- (w=0.35) Have hardware/preparation milestones (spacecraft at Wenchang, rocket integration) progressed on schedule without significant delays? \u2014 Spacecraft has arrived at spaceport; on-track integration and testing indicate the launch will occur within the window.\n- (w=0.25) Do historical Chinese lunar missions and Long March 5 launches tend to slip past announced windows? \u2014 Base rate for schedule slippage in Chinese major lunar/space missions informs likelihood of on-time launch.\n\nCombination rule: **weighted_average**\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | DATED] Space News reported Chang\u0027e-7 arrived at Wenchang with planned liftoff in second half of 2026, earlier reports suggesting August.\n2. [sq1 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | DATED] Wikipedia states Chang\u0027e 7 is expected to launch in August 2026 to target the lunar south pole.\n3. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | DATED] Chang\u0027e-7 spacecraft confirmed arrived at Wenchang spaceport for launch preparations on Long March 5.\n4. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] News search returned no articles reporting Chang\u0027e-7 delays, integration problems, or schedule slips after arrival at Wenchang.\n5. [sq3 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Chang\u0027e 6 was successfully launched in 2024 as China\u0027s second lunar sample-return mission, indicating recent program success.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No base rate on how often Chinese lunar missions slip past announced launch windows\n - No recent (post-March 2026) confirmation of specific launch date or rocket integration status\n - No data on Long March 5 launch cadence or recent delays in 2026\n - August target leaves narrow margin before Sept 1 deadline\u2014no info on window flexibility\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether \u0027second half 2026\u0027 target holds to August vs. slips to Sept/later\n - Any undisclosed technical issues during rocket integration\n - Reliability of unofficial \u0027earlier reports\u0027 pointing to August\n - Complexity risk from multi-element spacecraft (orbiter, lander, hopper, rover)\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The status quo outcome \u2014 what happens if nothing changes from today.\n (c) A brief scenario that results in NO.\n (d) A brief scenario that results in YES.\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition \u2014 independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.\n- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.\n- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid \u003e0.97 or \u003c0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological \u2014 overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.\n- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question \u2014 move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.\n- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or \"very recent\" claim \u2014 especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility \u2014 must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.\n- **Also provide a holistic estimate** \u2014 your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) (b) (c) (d) above \u2014 5-8 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"sub_question_estimates\": {\n \"sq1\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq2\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq3\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e\n },\n \"holistic_p_yes\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99] \u2014 your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition\u003e,\n \"what_would_change_my_mind\": \"\u003c1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%\u003e\"\n}\n",
"holistic_p_yes": 0.5,
"models": [
"opus"
],
"p_yes": 0.581,
"rationale": "(a) About 6-8 months remain until the September 1, 2026 deadline, with the spacecraft already reported at Wenchang. (b) Status quo: an August 2026 target from unofficial reports within an official \u0027second half of 2026\u0027 window, meaning launch before Sept 1 requires hitting the very early edge of that window. (c) NO scenario: the August target slips even a few weeks\u2014common for complex multi-element missions and dependent on Long March 5 availability\u2014pushing liftoff into September-December, still within \u0027second half 2026\u0027 but past the deadline. (d) YES scenario: integration and testing proceed smoothly, the disciplined recent Chinese lunar cadence (Chang\u0027e 4/5/6 all successful) holds, and the August liftoff occurs on or near target. The core risk is the narrow ~1-month buffer between the August target and the Sept 1 cutoff, which makes even modest slippage decisive.",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": 0.65,
"sq2": 0.75,
"sq3": 0.45
},
"what_would_change_my_mind": "A confirmed specific launch date in July/August 2026 with rocket fully integrated would push me above 70%; any report of integration problems, a Long March 5 slip, or an official date slipping to September or later would push me below 30%."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "science",
"n_sub_qs": 3,
"n_tools": 3,
"reasoning_approach": "Blend the official/target schedule signal (sq1) and current hardware readiness (sq2) with a historical slippage base rate (sq3) via weighted average, since all three factors are correlated indicators of whether the launch happens before the deadline.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Is the Chang\u0027e 7 launch officially scheduled/targeted for before September 1, 2026?",
"rationale": "The reported window is \u0027second half of 2026\u0027 with earlier reports suggesting August; a target date before Sept 1 is necessary for a Yes.",
"weight": 0.4
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Have hardware/preparation milestones (spacecraft at Wenchang, rocket integration) progressed on schedule without significant delays?",
"rationale": "Spacecraft has arrived at spaceport; on-track integration and testing indicate the launch will occur within the window.",
"weight": 0.35
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Do historical Chinese lunar missions and Long March 5 launches tend to slip past announced windows?",
"rationale": "Base rate for schedule slippage in Chinese major lunar/space missions informs likelihood of on-time launch.",
"weight": 0.25
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find the latest confirmed launch date or window for China\u0027s Chang\u0027e 7 lunar south pole mission, including any statements from CNSA, Wenchang spaceport preparation status, Long March 5 integration progress, and any reported delays or confirmation of an August/summer 2026 launch.",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "Will China launch Chang\u0027e 7 before September 1, 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_days": 120,
"queries": [
"Chang\u0027e 7 launch date 2026",
"Chang\u0027e 7 Wenchang launch preparation Long March 5",
"China lunar south pole mission schedule delay"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2"
],
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"Chang\u0027e 7",
"Chang\u0027e 6",
"Chang\u0027e 5",
"Long March 5",
"Chinese Lunar Exploration Program"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "wikipedia_lookup"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-07-14T03:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nSpace News [China\u2019s Chang\u2019e-7 arrives at spaceport for lunar south pole exploration mission](https://spacenews.com/chinas-change-7-arrives-at-spaceport-for-lunar-south-pole-exploration-mission/): \n\"China\u2019s multi-element Chang\u2019e-7 lunar spacecraft has arrived at Wenchang spaceport for launch preparations ahead of a planned liftoff in the second half of 2026.\n\nChang\u2019e-7 will be prepared for launch on a Long March 5 rocket from Wenchang, with earlier reports suggesting launch in August.\"\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"57654f108660e53a\", \"sheet_id\": \"94\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if the [Chang\u0027e 7 mission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chang%27e_7) is launched before September 1, 2026. For purposes of this question, a launch counts if liftoff occurs, with the vehicle leaving the launch mount under its own power, regardless of what occurs after that point (including a rapid unscheduled disassembly).",
"question_type": "binary",
"title": "Will China launch Chang\u0027e 7 before September 1, 2026?"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 3,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 32.13,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "12 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.78,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "22 articles",
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 1.06,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "3 pages",
"tool_name": "wikipedia_lookup"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "Space News reported Chang\u0027e-7 arrived at Wenchang with planned liftoff in second half of 2026, earlier reports suggesting August.",
"credibility": 78,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Wikipedia states Chang\u0027e 7 is expected to launch in August 2026 to target the lunar south pole.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "wikipedia_lookup",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Chang\u0027e-7 spacecraft confirmed arrived at Wenchang spaceport for launch preparations on Long March 5.",
"credibility": 78,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "News search returned no articles reporting Chang\u0027e-7 delays, integration problems, or schedule slips after arrival at Wenchang.",
"credibility": 35,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Chang\u0027e 6 was successfully launched in 2024 as China\u0027s second lunar sample-return mission, indicating recent program success.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "wikipedia_lookup",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No base rate on how often Chinese lunar missions slip past announced launch windows",
"No recent (post-March 2026) confirmation of specific launch date or rocket integration status",
"No data on Long March 5 launch cadence or recent delays in 2026",
"August target leaves narrow margin before Sept 1 deadline\u2014no info on window flexibility"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether \u0027second half 2026\u0027 target holds to August vs. slips to Sept/later",
"Any undisclosed technical issues during rocket integration",
"Reliability of unofficial \u0027earlier reports\u0027 pointing to August",
"Complexity risk from multi-element spacecraft (orbiter, lander, hopper, rover)"
],
"n_evidence": 5
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 35.02,
"plan": 12.02,
"research": 32.17,
"synthesis": 12.48
}
}