## Cross-Market Signals

### Polymarket
- "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?" → Yes: 0.06, Volume: $1.3M

1. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | DATED] UMass Lowell/YouGov poll (fielded May 13-26) showed Democrat Platner leading Collins 48%-43%.
2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | DATED] NYT/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll (June 19-26) found Platner leading Collins 49%-47%, within margin of error.
3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | UP | DATED] Collins's 47% in the June NYT poll exceeds any public 2020 poll before she won reelection.
4. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | RECENT] Democratic nominee Platner suspended his campaign in July 2026 amid a rape allegation; existing polls used him as the matchup.
5. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | DATED] Collins holds strong advantages on character (66% vs 44%) and moral values (61% vs 45%) versus Platner.
6. [sq4 | article_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | RECENT] As of July 8, 2026, Maine Democrats had no consensus replacement candidate and under three weeks to name one.
7. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Schumer and DSCC vowed not to spend money against Collins unless Platner withdrew and was replaced.
8. [sq2 | wikipedia_lookup | STRONG cred 92 | UP | DATED] Collins won reelection to a fifth term in 2020 defeating Sara Gideon despite trailing in every public poll.
9. [sq2 | article_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | DATED] Collins is a five-term incumbent who has survived multiple tough reelection fights since 1997.
10. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 60 | DOWN | DATED] Unpopular Iran war and affordability issues have made Democrats more hopeful about 2026 Senate chances.
11. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 60 | DOWN | DATED] CBS polling showed more voters preferred Democrats to control Congress than Republicans as of early 2026.
12. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 68 | DOWN | DATED] Collins had negative favorability (36% favorable vs 53% unfavorable) in the June UMass Lowell poll.

## Cross-Market Signals

### Polymarket
- "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?" → Yes: 0.06, Volume: $1.3M

Information gaps:
  - No polling of Collins vs. the new (post-Platner) Democratic nominee
  - No RaceToTheWH current polling average value cited
  - Identity of eventual Democratic nominee unknown
  - No August 2026 polling data near resolution date

Key uncertainties:
  - Who replaces Platner and their polling strength
  - Whether a nominee gap boosts Collins in averages by Aug 31
  - National midterm environment shift by late summer
  - Whether RaceToTheWH shows any matchup at resolution

You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates — your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.

## Question
Will Susan Collins lead the Democratic candidate in the Maine Senate race polling on August 31, 2026?

## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
Wikipedia: [2026 United States Senate election in Maine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Maine)

`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "1c0b969f9bcab5ac", "sheet_id": "101"}}`

## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as **Yes** if on August 31, 2026, Susan Collins leads the Democratic nominee in the General Election Polling Average at the [2026 Senate Polling](https://www.racetothewh.com/senate/26) tracker at the RaceToTheWH website.

## Fine Print
INSTRUCTIONS: At the resolution link, scroll down to Polling Average. Then select the race under Choose a State & Matchup.

## Sub-question decomposition
- (w=0.45) Does the current polling average at RaceToTheWH show Collins leading the Democratic candidate?  — The most direct signal; current standings are the strongest predictor of where the race sits by August 2026.
- (w=0.30) Is Collins historically an incumbent who outperforms early polling and wins reelection?  — Collins famously trailed in 2020 polls but won comfortably; her personal brand and incumbency create structural resilien
- (w=0.15) Does the national political environment (approval of Trump, generic ballot, economy) favor Republicans enough to keep Collins ahead by Aug 2026?  — Midterm environment in Maine (blue-leaning state) could depress Collins; a hostile GOP environment threatens her lead.
- (w=0.10) Has a strong, well-funded Democratic nominee emerged and consolidated support by mid-2026?  — The quality/identity of the Democratic challenger materially affects whether polls tighten enough to overtake Collins.

Combination rule: **weighted_average**

## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | DATED] UMass Lowell/YouGov poll (fielded May 13-26) showed Democrat Platner leading Collins 48%-43%.
2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | DATED] NYT/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll (June 19-26) found Platner leading Collins 49%-47%, within margin of error.
3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | UP | DATED] Collins's 47% in the June NYT poll exceeds any public 2020 poll before she won reelection.
4. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | RECENT] Democratic nominee Platner suspended his campaign in July 2026 amid a rape allegation; existing polls used him as the matchup.
5. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | DATED] Collins holds strong advantages on character (66% vs 44%) and moral values (61% vs 45%) versus Platner.
6. [sq4 | article_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | RECENT] As of July 8, 2026, Maine Democrats had no consensus replacement candidate and under three weeks to name one.
7. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Schumer and DSCC vowed not to spend money against Collins unless Platner withdrew and was replaced.
8. [sq2 | wikipedia_lookup | STRONG cred 92 | UP | DATED] Collins won reelection to a fifth term in 2020 defeating Sara Gideon despite trailing in every public poll.
9. [sq2 | article_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | DATED] Collins is a five-term incumbent who has survived multiple tough reelection fights since 1997.
10. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 60 | DOWN | DATED] Unpopular Iran war and affordability issues have made Democrats more hopeful about 2026 Senate chances.
11. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 60 | DOWN | DATED] CBS polling showed more voters preferred Democrats to control Congress than Republicans as of early 2026.
12. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 68 | DOWN | DATED] Collins had negative favorability (36% favorable vs 53% unfavorable) in the June UMass Lowell poll.

## Cross-Market Signals

### Polymarket
- "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?" → Yes: 0.06, Volume: $1.3M

Information gaps:
  - No polling of Collins vs. the new (post-Platner) Democratic nominee
  - No RaceToTheWH current polling average value cited
  - Identity of eventual Democratic nominee unknown
  - No August 2026 polling data near resolution date

Key uncertainties:
  - Who replaces Platner and their polling strength
  - Whether a nominee gap boosts Collins in averages by Aug 31
  - National midterm environment shift by late summer
  - Whether RaceToTheWH shows any matchup at resolution

## Required pre-forecast walkthrough

Before giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:
  (a) The time left until the question resolves.
  (b) The status quo outcome — what happens if nothing changes from today.
  (c) A brief scenario that results in NO.
  (d) A brief scenario that results in YES.

## Calibration guidance

- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition — independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.
- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.
- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid >0.97 or <0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological — overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question — move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.
- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or "very recent" claim — especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility — must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.
- **Also provide a holistic estimate** — your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.

## Output

Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:

{
  "rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) (d) above — 5-8 sentences total>",
  "sub_question_estimates": {
    "sq1": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
    "sq2": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
    "sq3": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
    "sq4": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>
  },
  "holistic_p_yes": <float in [0.01, 0.99] — your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition>,
  "what_would_change_my_mind": "<1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%>"
}

{
  "forecast": {
    "combination_logic": "weighted_average",
    "evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | DATED] UMass Lowell/YouGov poll (fielded May 13-26) showed Democrat Platner leading Collins 48%-43%.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | DATED] NYT/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll (June 19-26) found Platner leading Collins 49%-47%, within margin of error.\n3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | UP | DATED] Collins\u0027s 47% in the June NYT poll exceeds any public 2020 poll before she won reelection.\n4. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | RECENT] Democratic nominee Platner suspended his campaign in July 2026 amid a rape allegation; existing polls used him as the matchup.\n5. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | DATED] Collins holds strong advantages on character (66% vs 44%) and moral values (61% vs 45%) versus Platner.\n6. [sq4 | article_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | RECENT] As of July 8, 2026, Maine Democrats had no consensus replacement candidate and under three weeks to name one.\n7. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Schumer and DSCC vowed not to spend money against Collins unless Platner withdrew and was replaced.\n8. [sq2 | wikipedia_lookup | STRONG cred 92 | UP | DATED] Collins won reelection to a fifth term in 2020 defeating Sara Gideon despite trailing in every public poll.\n9. [sq2 | article_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | DATED] Collins is a five-term incumbent who has survived multiple tough reelection fights since 1997.\n10. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 60 | DOWN | DATED] Unpopular Iran war and affordability issues have made Democrats more hopeful about 2026 Senate chances.\n11. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 60 | DOWN | DATED] CBS polling showed more voters preferred Democrats to control Congress than Republicans as of early 2026.\n12. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 68 | DOWN | DATED] Collins had negative favorability (36% favorable vs 53% unfavorable) in the June UMass Lowell poll.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.06, Volume: $1.3M\n\nInformation gaps:\n  - No polling of Collins vs. the new (post-Platner) Democratic nominee\n  - No RaceToTheWH current polling average value cited\n  - Identity of eventual Democratic nominee unknown\n  - No August 2026 polling data near resolution date\n\nKey uncertainties:\n  - Who replaces Platner and their polling strength\n  - Whether a nominee gap boosts Collins in averages by Aug 31\n  - National midterm environment shift by late summer\n  - Whether RaceToTheWH shows any matchup at resolution",
    "forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates \u2014 your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.\n\n## Question\nWill Susan Collins lead the Democratic candidate in the Maine Senate race polling on August 31, 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nWikipedia: [2026 United States Senate election in Maine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Maine)\r\n\r\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"1c0b969f9bcab5ac\", \"sheet_id\": \"101\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if on August 31, 2026, Susan Collins leads the Democratic nominee in the General Election Polling Average at the [2026 Senate Polling](https://www.racetothewh.com/senate/26) tracker at the RaceToTheWH website.\n\n## Fine Print\nINSTRUCTIONS: At the resolution link, scroll down to Polling Average. Then select the race under Choose a State \u0026 Matchup.\n\n## Sub-question decomposition\n- (w=0.45) Does the current polling average at RaceToTheWH show Collins leading the Democratic candidate?  \u2014 The most direct signal; current standings are the strongest predictor of where the race sits by August 2026.\n- (w=0.30) Is Collins historically an incumbent who outperforms early polling and wins reelection?  \u2014 Collins famously trailed in 2020 polls but won comfortably; her personal brand and incumbency create structural resilien\n- (w=0.15) Does the national political environment (approval of Trump, generic ballot, economy) favor Republicans enough to keep Collins ahead by Aug 2026?  \u2014 Midterm environment in Maine (blue-leaning state) could depress Collins; a hostile GOP environment threatens her lead.\n- (w=0.10) Has a strong, well-funded Democratic nominee emerged and consolidated support by mid-2026?  \u2014 The quality/identity of the Democratic challenger materially affects whether polls tighten enough to overtake Collins.\n\nCombination rule: **weighted_average**\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | DATED] UMass Lowell/YouGov poll (fielded May 13-26) showed Democrat Platner leading Collins 48%-43%.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | DATED] NYT/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll (June 19-26) found Platner leading Collins 49%-47%, within margin of error.\n3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | UP | DATED] Collins\u0027s 47% in the June NYT poll exceeds any public 2020 poll before she won reelection.\n4. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | RECENT] Democratic nominee Platner suspended his campaign in July 2026 amid a rape allegation; existing polls used him as the matchup.\n5. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | DATED] Collins holds strong advantages on character (66% vs 44%) and moral values (61% vs 45%) versus Platner.\n6. [sq4 | article_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | RECENT] As of July 8, 2026, Maine Democrats had no consensus replacement candidate and under three weeks to name one.\n7. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Schumer and DSCC vowed not to spend money against Collins unless Platner withdrew and was replaced.\n8. [sq2 | wikipedia_lookup | STRONG cred 92 | UP | DATED] Collins won reelection to a fifth term in 2020 defeating Sara Gideon despite trailing in every public poll.\n9. [sq2 | article_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | DATED] Collins is a five-term incumbent who has survived multiple tough reelection fights since 1997.\n10. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 60 | DOWN | DATED] Unpopular Iran war and affordability issues have made Democrats more hopeful about 2026 Senate chances.\n11. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 60 | DOWN | DATED] CBS polling showed more voters preferred Democrats to control Congress than Republicans as of early 2026.\n12. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 68 | DOWN | DATED] Collins had negative favorability (36% favorable vs 53% unfavorable) in the June UMass Lowell poll.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.06, Volume: $1.3M\n\nInformation gaps:\n  - No polling of Collins vs. the new (post-Platner) Democratic nominee\n  - No RaceToTheWH current polling average value cited\n  - Identity of eventual Democratic nominee unknown\n  - No August 2026 polling data near resolution date\n\nKey uncertainties:\n  - Who replaces Platner and their polling strength\n  - Whether a nominee gap boosts Collins in averages by Aug 31\n  - National midterm environment shift by late summer\n  - Whether RaceToTheWH shows any matchup at resolution\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:\n  (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n  (b) The status quo outcome \u2014 what happens if nothing changes from today.\n  (c) A brief scenario that results in NO.\n  (d) A brief scenario that results in YES.\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition \u2014 independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.\n- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.\n- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid \u003e0.97 or \u003c0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological \u2014 overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.\n- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question \u2014 move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.\n- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or \"very recent\" claim \u2014 especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility \u2014 must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.\n- **Also provide a holistic estimate** \u2014 your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n  \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) (b) (c) (d) above \u2014 5-8 sentences total\u003e\",\n  \"sub_question_estimates\": {\n    \"sq1\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n    \"sq2\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n    \"sq3\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n    \"sq4\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e\n  },\n  \"holistic_p_yes\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99] \u2014 your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition\u003e,\n  \"what_would_change_my_mind\": \"\u003c1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%\u003e\"\n}\n",
    "holistic_p_yes": 0.72,
    "models": [
      "opus"
    ],
    "p_yes": 0.6990000000000001,
    "rationale": "(a) About two months until the August 31, 2026 resolution. (b) Status quo: the strong Democratic frontrunner Platner suspended his campaign in July 2026 amid scandal, Maine Democrats have no consensus replacement, and the DSCC signaled it wouldn\u0027t spend against Collins absent a viable nominee \u2014 so a five-term incumbent leads a fractured, replacement-hunting opposition, favoring Collins in any near-term polling average. (c) NO scenario: a hostile blue-state midterm environment (anti-Trump sentiment, affordability/Iran issues) combined with a fresh, well-funded replacement nominee generating a sympathy/unity bounce pushes the challenger ahead by late August, or RaceToTheWH still averages stale Platner-era polls that had the Democrat narrowly leading. (d) YES scenario: with the Democratic field in disarray and no strong nominee consolidated, new head-to-head polling shows Collins ahead of a weaker or generic Democrat, and her incumbency/character advantages carry the average. Collins\u0027s 47% in the June NYT poll already exceeded her 2020 pre-election numbers, and her history of outperforming polls supports resilience. On balance the Democratic collapse tilts this toward YES, tempered by Maine\u0027s blue lean and negative Collins favorability.",
    "sub_question_estimates": {
      "sq1": 0.65,
      "sq2": 0.85,
      "sq3": 0.45,
      "sq4": 0.7
    },
    "what_would_change_my_mind": "New post-Platner head-to-head polling showing a replacement Democrat leading (or clearly trailing) Collins, or the RaceToTheWH average still displaying stale Platner-era numbers that had the Democrat ahead, would move me well below 30% or above 70% respectively."
  },
  "plan": {
    "combination_logic": "weighted_average",
    "domain": "politics",
    "n_sub_qs": 4,
    "n_tools": 4,
    "reasoning_approach": "Blend the direct current-polling signal (sq1) with structural incumbency advantage (sq2), the midterm political environment (sq3), and challenger strength (sq4) via a weighted average, anchoring heavily on current polling and Collins\u0027s demonstrated tendency to outperform early polls.",
    "sub_questions": [
      {
        "id": "sq1",
        "question": "Does the current polling average at RaceToTheWH show Collins leading the Democratic candidate?",
        "rationale": "The most direct signal; current standings are the strongest predictor of where the race sits by August 2026.",
        "weight": 0.45
      },
      {
        "id": "sq2",
        "question": "Is Collins historically an incumbent who outperforms early polling and wins reelection?",
        "rationale": "Collins famously trailed in 2020 polls but won comfortably; her personal brand and incumbency create structural resilience that biases toward a lead.",
        "weight": 0.3
      },
      {
        "id": "sq3",
        "question": "Does the national political environment (approval of Trump, generic ballot, economy) favor Republicans enough to keep Collins ahead by Aug 2026?",
        "rationale": "Midterm environment in Maine (blue-leaning state) could depress Collins; a hostile GOP environment threatens her lead.",
        "weight": 0.15
      },
      {
        "id": "sq4",
        "question": "Has a strong, well-funded Democratic nominee emerged and consolidated support by mid-2026?",
        "rationale": "The quality/identity of the Democratic challenger materially affects whether polls tighten enough to overtake Collins.",
        "weight": 0.1
      }
    ],
    "tool_requests": [
      {
        "parameters": {
          "queries": [
            "Maine 2026 Senate race polling Collins Democrat",
            "RaceToTheWH Maine Senate 2026 polling average",
            "Susan Collins 2026 reelection poll"
          ]
        },
        "target_sub_questions": [
          "sq1",
          "sq4"
        ],
        "tool_name": "web_search"
      },
      {
        "parameters": {
          "lookback_days": 120,
          "queries": [
            "Maine Senate 2026 Susan Collins Democratic challenger",
            "Susan Collins approval Maine 2026",
            "2026 Senate races Maine competitive"
          ]
        },
        "target_sub_questions": [
          "sq1",
          "sq3",
          "sq4"
        ],
        "tool_name": "article_search"
      },
      {
        "parameters": {
          "queries": [
            "2026 United States Senate election in Maine",
            "Susan Collins",
            "2020 United States Senate election in Maine"
          ]
        },
        "target_sub_questions": [
          "sq2",
          "sq4"
        ],
        "tool_name": "wikipedia_lookup"
      },
      {
        "parameters": {
          "lookback_months": 18,
          "search_text": "Maine unemployment rate",
          "series_ids": [
            "UNRATE",
            "CPIAUCSL"
          ]
        },
        "target_sub_questions": [
          "sq3"
        ],
        "tool_name": "fred_data"
      }
    ]
  },
  "question": {
    "close_time": "2026-07-13T06:00:00Z",
    "description": "## Description\nWikipedia: [2026 United States Senate election in Maine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Maine)\r\n\r\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"1c0b969f9bcab5ac\", \"sheet_id\": \"101\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if on August 31, 2026, Susan Collins leads the Democratic nominee in the General Election Polling Average at the [2026 Senate Polling](https://www.racetothewh.com/senate/26) tracker at the RaceToTheWH website.\n\n## Fine Print\nINSTRUCTIONS: At the resolution link, scroll down to Polling Average. Then select the race under Choose a State \u0026 Matchup.",
    "question_type": "binary",
    "title": "Will Susan Collins lead the Democratic candidate in the Maine Senate race polling on August 31, 2026?"
  },
  "research": {
    "cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.06, Volume: $1.3M",
    "errors": [],
    "has_cross_market": true,
    "n_errors": 0,
    "n_tools": 4,
    "tools": [
      {
        "elapsed_s": 61.55,
        "error": null,
        "success": true,
        "summary": "0 results",
        "tool_name": "web_search"
      },
      {
        "elapsed_s": 0.65,
        "error": null,
        "success": true,
        "summary": "17 articles",
        "tool_name": "article_search"
      },
      {
        "elapsed_s": 1.76,
        "error": null,
        "success": true,
        "summary": "3 pages",
        "tool_name": "wikipedia_lookup"
      },
      {
        "elapsed_s": 12.23,
        "error": null,
        "success": true,
        "summary": "6 series",
        "tool_name": "fred_data"
      }
    ]
  },
  "synthesis": {
    "evidence": [
      {
        "claim": "UMass Lowell/YouGov poll (fielded May 13-26) showed Democrat Platner leading Collins 48%-43%.",
        "credibility": 70,
        "direction": "DOWN",
        "priced_in": true,
        "recency": "DATED",
        "source": "web_search",
        "strength": "MODERATE",
        "sub_question_id": "sq1"
      },
      {
        "claim": "NYT/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll (June 19-26) found Platner leading Collins 49%-47%, within margin of error.",
        "credibility": 75,
        "direction": "DOWN",
        "priced_in": true,
        "recency": "DATED",
        "source": "web_search",
        "strength": "MODERATE",
        "sub_question_id": "sq1"
      },
      {
        "claim": "Collins\u0027s 47% in the June NYT poll exceeds any public 2020 poll before she won reelection.",
        "credibility": 65,
        "direction": "UP",
        "priced_in": false,
        "recency": "DATED",
        "source": "web_search",
        "strength": "MODERATE",
        "sub_question_id": "sq1"
      },
      {
        "claim": "Democratic nominee Platner suspended his campaign in July 2026 amid a rape allegation; existing polls used him as the matchup.",
        "credibility": 90,
        "direction": "UP",
        "priced_in": false,
        "recency": "RECENT",
        "source": "article_search",
        "strength": "STRONG",
        "sub_question_id": "sq1"
      },
      {
        "claim": "Collins holds strong advantages on character (66% vs 44%) and moral values (61% vs 45%) versus Platner.",
        "credibility": 70,
        "direction": "UP",
        "priced_in": false,
        "recency": "DATED",
        "source": "web_search",
        "strength": "MODERATE",
        "sub_question_id": "sq1"
      },
      {
        "claim": "As of July 8, 2026, Maine Democrats had no consensus replacement candidate and under three weeks to name one.",
        "credibility": 88,
        "direction": "UP",
        "priced_in": false,
        "recency": "RECENT",
        "source": "article_search",
        "strength": "STRONG",
        "sub_question_id": "sq4"
      },
      {
        "claim": "Schumer and DSCC vowed not to spend money against Collins unless Platner withdrew and was replaced.",
        "credibility": 80,
        "direction": "NEUTRAL",
        "priced_in": false,
        "recency": "RECENT",
        "source": "article_search",
        "strength": "MODERATE",
        "sub_question_id": "sq4"
      },
      {
        "claim": "Collins won reelection to a fifth term in 2020 defeating Sara Gideon despite trailing in every public poll.",
        "credibility": 92,
        "direction": "UP",
        "priced_in": true,
        "recency": "DATED",
        "source": "wikipedia_lookup",
        "strength": "STRONG",
        "sub_question_id": "sq2"
      },
      {
        "claim": "Collins is a five-term incumbent who has survived multiple tough reelection fights since 1997.",
        "credibility": 90,
        "direction": "UP",
        "priced_in": true,
        "recency": "DATED",
        "source": "article_search",
        "strength": "STRONG",
        "sub_question_id": "sq2"
      },
      {
        "claim": "Unpopular Iran war and affordability issues have made Democrats more hopeful about 2026 Senate chances.",
        "credibility": 60,
        "direction": "DOWN",
        "priced_in": true,
        "recency": "DATED",
        "source": "article_search",
        "strength": "WEAK",
        "sub_question_id": "sq3"
      },
      {
        "claim": "CBS polling showed more voters preferred Democrats to control Congress than Republicans as of early 2026.",
        "credibility": 60,
        "direction": "DOWN",
        "priced_in": true,
        "recency": "DATED",
        "source": "article_search",
        "strength": "WEAK",
        "sub_question_id": "sq3"
      },
      {
        "claim": "Collins had negative favorability (36% favorable vs 53% unfavorable) in the June UMass Lowell poll.",
        "credibility": 68,
        "direction": "DOWN",
        "priced_in": true,
        "recency": "DATED",
        "source": "web_search",
        "strength": "MODERATE",
        "sub_question_id": "sq1"
      }
    ],
    "information_gaps": [
      "No polling of Collins vs. the new (post-Platner) Democratic nominee",
      "No RaceToTheWH current polling average value cited",
      "Identity of eventual Democratic nominee unknown",
      "No August 2026 polling data near resolution date"
    ],
    "key_uncertainties": [
      "Who replaces Platner and their polling strength",
      "Whether a nominee gap boosts Collins in averages by Aug 31",
      "National midterm environment shift by late summer",
      "Whether RaceToTheWH shows any matchup at resolution"
    ],
    "n_evidence": 12
  },
  "timings": {
    "forecast": 36.52,
    "plan": 13.06,
    "research": 61.55,
    "synthesis": 25.39
  }
}