The main question resolves YES (Trump fails to attend) if the event is canceled/relocated OR Trump is unavailable OR he chooses not to attend; these correlated factors are blended via weighted average, with the strongest driver being whether the financially-troubled event actually happens at Bedminster, since Trump's attendance is near-certain when LIV plays his own course and he is available.
## Cross-Market Signals ### No signal found
1. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | DATED] LIV Golf's Aug. 6-9 Bedminster event was still on the schedule as of late April 2026, with US tournaments cited by name. 2. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 82 | DOWN | DATED] Saudi PIF will end LIV Golf funding after the 2026 season but publicly committed to funding through this season's end. 3. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | RECENT] LIV CEO O'Neil said in June 2026 the league is 'full steam ahead' and trusts PIF to fund through season's end. 4. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | DATED] LIV Golf is seeking $250-350M in emergency financing via investor roadshow amid funding-cliff concerns. 5. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 72 | NEUTRAL | DATED] LIV postponed its inaugural New Orleans event, showing schedule instability, though the delay explicitly did not affect Bedminster. 6. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 60 | UP | RECENT] NY Post reported in June 2026 LIV Golf 'might not have enough money to finish its season.' 7. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 88 | DOWN | DATED] LIV successfully held its scheduled May 7-10 event at Trump National Virginia despite funding turmoil. 8. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 88 | DOWN | DATED] Trump hosted and attended the May 2026 LIV event at his Virginia course, and attended a PGA event at Doral. 9. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | DOWN | DATED] Bedminster would be LIV's ninth-plus event at a Trump-owned course, reflecting a consistent Trump-attendance pattern. 10. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | RECENT] Trump gave a lucid late-April 2026 interview and was actively working on Air Force One projects in June, indicating he is alive and active. 11. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] An April 2026 interview references Trump being 'safe' after a shooting incident involving a radicalized gunman. ## Cross-Market Signals ### No signal found Information gaps: - No confirmation the Bedminster event remains scheduled as of July/August 2026 - No data on Trump's specific August 2026 calendar - No base rate on LIV events canceled/relocated on short notice - Whether emergency financing closed successfully Key uncertainties: - Whether LIV secures funding to hold Bedminster - Possible last-minute relocation or cancellation - Trump's availability given presidential duties/security - Health/safety concerns after referenced shooting incident
You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates — your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.
## Question
Will Donald Trump fail to attend Liv Golf New York 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
NY Post: [LIV Golf might not have enough money to finish its season](https://nypost.com/2026/06/07/sports/liv-golf-might-not-have-enough-money-to-finish-its-season/)
`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "63e492580a282a67", "sheet_id": "103"}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as **No** if, between August 6-9, 2026 (inclusive), President Donald Trump is anywhere within the grounds of the Trump National Golf Club Bedminster and [Liv Golf NY 2026](https://events.livgolf.com/new-york/) takes place there while Trump is present.
## Sub-question decomposition
- (w=0.45) Will LIV Golf NY 2026 actually take place at Trump National Golf Club Bedminster during August 6-9, 2026? — The NY Post article raises doubts about LIV's finances finishing the season; if the event is canceled or relocated, Trum
- (w=0.15) Will Donald Trump be alive, in office, and physically able/available to travel to Bedminster in August 2026? — Basic availability precondition; a health crisis, major domestic/foreign event, or scheduling conflict could keep him aw
- (w=0.40) Conditional on the event occurring, will Trump choose to attend given his consistent past pattern of attending LIV events at his own courses? — Trump has historically attended LIV events at his properties (Bedminster hosted LIV in prior years with his presence), m
Combination rule: **weighted_average**
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | DATED] LIV Golf's Aug. 6-9 Bedminster event was still on the schedule as of late April 2026, with US tournaments cited by name.
2. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 82 | DOWN | DATED] Saudi PIF will end LIV Golf funding after the 2026 season but publicly committed to funding through this season's end.
3. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | RECENT] LIV CEO O'Neil said in June 2026 the league is 'full steam ahead' and trusts PIF to fund through season's end.
4. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | DATED] LIV Golf is seeking $250-350M in emergency financing via investor roadshow amid funding-cliff concerns.
5. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 72 | NEUTRAL | DATED] LIV postponed its inaugural New Orleans event, showing schedule instability, though the delay explicitly did not affect Bedminster.
6. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 60 | UP | RECENT] NY Post reported in June 2026 LIV Golf 'might not have enough money to finish its season.'
7. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 88 | DOWN | DATED] LIV successfully held its scheduled May 7-10 event at Trump National Virginia despite funding turmoil.
8. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 88 | DOWN | DATED] Trump hosted and attended the May 2026 LIV event at his Virginia course, and attended a PGA event at Doral.
9. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | DOWN | DATED] Bedminster would be LIV's ninth-plus event at a Trump-owned course, reflecting a consistent Trump-attendance pattern.
10. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | RECENT] Trump gave a lucid late-April 2026 interview and was actively working on Air Force One projects in June, indicating he is alive and active.
11. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] An April 2026 interview references Trump being 'safe' after a shooting incident involving a radicalized gunman.
## Cross-Market Signals
### No signal found
Information gaps:
- No confirmation the Bedminster event remains scheduled as of July/August 2026
- No data on Trump's specific August 2026 calendar
- No base rate on LIV events canceled/relocated on short notice
- Whether emergency financing closed successfully
Key uncertainties:
- Whether LIV secures funding to hold Bedminster
- Possible last-minute relocation or cancellation
- Trump's availability given presidential duties/security
- Health/safety concerns after referenced shooting incident
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The status quo outcome — what happens if nothing changes from today.
(c) A brief scenario that results in NO.
(d) A brief scenario that results in YES.
## Calibration guidance
- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition — independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.
- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.
- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid >0.97 or <0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological — overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question — move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.
- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or "very recent" claim — especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility — must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.
- **Also provide a holistic estimate** — your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) (d) above — 5-8 sentences total>",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq2": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq3": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>
},
"holistic_p_yes": <float in [0.01, 0.99] — your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition>,
"what_would_change_my_mind": "<1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%>"
}
{
"forecast": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | DATED] LIV Golf\u0027s Aug. 6-9 Bedminster event was still on the schedule as of late April 2026, with US tournaments cited by name.\n2. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 82 | DOWN | DATED] Saudi PIF will end LIV Golf funding after the 2026 season but publicly committed to funding through this season\u0027s end.\n3. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | RECENT] LIV CEO O\u0027Neil said in June 2026 the league is \u0027full steam ahead\u0027 and trusts PIF to fund through season\u0027s end.\n4. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | DATED] LIV Golf is seeking $250-350M in emergency financing via investor roadshow amid funding-cliff concerns.\n5. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 72 | NEUTRAL | DATED] LIV postponed its inaugural New Orleans event, showing schedule instability, though the delay explicitly did not affect Bedminster.\n6. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 60 | UP | RECENT] NY Post reported in June 2026 LIV Golf \u0027might not have enough money to finish its season.\u0027\n7. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 88 | DOWN | DATED] LIV successfully held its scheduled May 7-10 event at Trump National Virginia despite funding turmoil.\n8. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 88 | DOWN | DATED] Trump hosted and attended the May 2026 LIV event at his Virginia course, and attended a PGA event at Doral.\n9. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | DOWN | DATED] Bedminster would be LIV\u0027s ninth-plus event at a Trump-owned course, reflecting a consistent Trump-attendance pattern.\n10. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | RECENT] Trump gave a lucid late-April 2026 interview and was actively working on Air Force One projects in June, indicating he is alive and active.\n11. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] An April 2026 interview references Trump being \u0027safe\u0027 after a shooting incident involving a radicalized gunman.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No confirmation the Bedminster event remains scheduled as of July/August 2026\n - No data on Trump\u0027s specific August 2026 calendar\n - No base rate on LIV events canceled/relocated on short notice\n - Whether emergency financing closed successfully\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether LIV secures funding to hold Bedminster\n - Possible last-minute relocation or cancellation\n - Trump\u0027s availability given presidential duties/security\n - Health/safety concerns after referenced shooting incident",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates \u2014 your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.\n\n## Question\nWill Donald Trump fail to attend Liv Golf New York 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nNY Post: [LIV Golf might not have enough money to finish its season](https://nypost.com/2026/06/07/sports/liv-golf-might-not-have-enough-money-to-finish-its-season/)\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"63e492580a282a67\", \"sheet_id\": \"103\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as **No** if, between August 6-9, 2026 (inclusive), President Donald Trump is anywhere within the grounds of the Trump National Golf Club Bedminster and [Liv Golf NY 2026](https://events.livgolf.com/new-york/) takes place there while Trump is present.\n\n## Sub-question decomposition\n- (w=0.45) Will LIV Golf NY 2026 actually take place at Trump National Golf Club Bedminster during August 6-9, 2026? \u2014 The NY Post article raises doubts about LIV\u0027s finances finishing the season; if the event is canceled or relocated, Trum\n- (w=0.15) Will Donald Trump be alive, in office, and physically able/available to travel to Bedminster in August 2026? \u2014 Basic availability precondition; a health crisis, major domestic/foreign event, or scheduling conflict could keep him aw\n- (w=0.40) Conditional on the event occurring, will Trump choose to attend given his consistent past pattern of attending LIV events at his own courses? \u2014 Trump has historically attended LIV events at his properties (Bedminster hosted LIV in prior years with his presence), m\n\nCombination rule: **weighted_average**\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | DATED] LIV Golf\u0027s Aug. 6-9 Bedminster event was still on the schedule as of late April 2026, with US tournaments cited by name.\n2. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 82 | DOWN | DATED] Saudi PIF will end LIV Golf funding after the 2026 season but publicly committed to funding through this season\u0027s end.\n3. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | RECENT] LIV CEO O\u0027Neil said in June 2026 the league is \u0027full steam ahead\u0027 and trusts PIF to fund through season\u0027s end.\n4. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | DATED] LIV Golf is seeking $250-350M in emergency financing via investor roadshow amid funding-cliff concerns.\n5. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 72 | NEUTRAL | DATED] LIV postponed its inaugural New Orleans event, showing schedule instability, though the delay explicitly did not affect Bedminster.\n6. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 60 | UP | RECENT] NY Post reported in June 2026 LIV Golf \u0027might not have enough money to finish its season.\u0027\n7. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 88 | DOWN | DATED] LIV successfully held its scheduled May 7-10 event at Trump National Virginia despite funding turmoil.\n8. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 88 | DOWN | DATED] Trump hosted and attended the May 2026 LIV event at his Virginia course, and attended a PGA event at Doral.\n9. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | DOWN | DATED] Bedminster would be LIV\u0027s ninth-plus event at a Trump-owned course, reflecting a consistent Trump-attendance pattern.\n10. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | RECENT] Trump gave a lucid late-April 2026 interview and was actively working on Air Force One projects in June, indicating he is alive and active.\n11. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] An April 2026 interview references Trump being \u0027safe\u0027 after a shooting incident involving a radicalized gunman.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No confirmation the Bedminster event remains scheduled as of July/August 2026\n - No data on Trump\u0027s specific August 2026 calendar\n - No base rate on LIV events canceled/relocated on short notice\n - Whether emergency financing closed successfully\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether LIV secures funding to hold Bedminster\n - Possible last-minute relocation or cancellation\n - Trump\u0027s availability given presidential duties/security\n - Health/safety concerns after referenced shooting incident\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The status quo outcome \u2014 what happens if nothing changes from today.\n (c) A brief scenario that results in NO.\n (d) A brief scenario that results in YES.\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition \u2014 independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.\n- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.\n- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid \u003e0.97 or \u003c0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological \u2014 overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.\n- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question \u2014 move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.\n- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or \"very recent\" claim \u2014 especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility \u2014 must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.\n- **Also provide a holistic estimate** \u2014 your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) (b) (c) (d) above \u2014 5-8 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"sub_question_estimates\": {\n \"sq1\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq2\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq3\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e\n },\n \"holistic_p_yes\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99] \u2014 your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition\u003e,\n \"what_would_change_my_mind\": \"\u003c1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%\u003e\"\n}\n",
"holistic_p_yes": 0.36,
"models": [
"opus"
],
"p_yes": 0.651,
"rationale": "(a) About two months remain until the Aug 6-9, 2026 window. (b) Status quo: LIV\u0027s Bedminster event remains on the schedule and PIF publicly committed to funding through season\u0027s end, LIV held its May Virginia event successfully, and Trump has attended essentially every LIV event at his own courses \u2014 so the default path is that the event happens and Trump attends, making the main question resolve NO. (c) A NO-for-attendance (i.e., YES to \u0027fail\u0027) scenario: LIV\u0027s funding cliff forces a last-minute cancellation/relocation of Bedminster, OR Trump is diverted by a presidential/security event (a shooting incident was referenced) or health issue during that weekend. (d) A NO scenario (Trump attends): funding holds, the event runs on schedule, and Trump follows his strong pattern of appearing at LIV events on his own properties. The dominant uncertainty is LIV\u0027s finances (sq1); Trump availability and willingness are both high given consistent past behavior.",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": 0.8,
"sq2": 0.94,
"sq3": 0.86
},
"what_would_change_my_mind": "Confirmation the Bedminster event is still officially scheduled and emergency financing closed would push the \u0027fail\u0027 probability below 30%; news of cancellation/relocation or a Trump health/security event that weekend would push it above 70%."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "politics",
"n_sub_qs": 3,
"n_tools": 3,
"reasoning_approach": "The main question resolves YES (Trump fails to attend) if the event is canceled/relocated OR Trump is unavailable OR he chooses not to attend; these correlated factors are blended via weighted average, with the strongest driver being whether the financially-troubled event actually happens at Bedminster, since Trump\u0027s attendance is near-certain when LIV plays his own course and he is available.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will LIV Golf NY 2026 actually take place at Trump National Golf Club Bedminster during August 6-9, 2026?",
"rationale": "The NY Post article raises doubts about LIV\u0027s finances finishing the season; if the event is canceled or relocated, Trump cannot be present at it, driving the question toward YES (fail to attend).",
"weight": 0.45
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will Donald Trump be alive, in office, and physically able/available to travel to Bedminster in August 2026?",
"rationale": "Basic availability precondition; a health crisis, major domestic/foreign event, or scheduling conflict could keep him away.",
"weight": 0.15
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Conditional on the event occurring, will Trump choose to attend given his consistent past pattern of attending LIV events at his own courses?",
"rationale": "Trump has historically attended LIV events at his properties (Bedminster hosted LIV in prior years with his presence), making attendance highly likely if the event happens and he\u0027s available.",
"weight": 0.4
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_days": 90,
"queries": [
"LIV Golf New York 2026 Bedminster schedule financial",
"LIV Golf season 2026 funding cancellation",
"Trump LIV Golf Bedminster attend 2026"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Determine whether LIV Golf NY 2026 will be held at Trump National Bedminster August 6-9 2026, LIV\u0027s financial ability to finish the season, and whether Trump plans to attend. Also check Trump\u0027s health and availability in August 2026.",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "Will Donald Trump fail to attend Liv Golf New York 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"LIV Golf Bedminster",
"Donald Trump LIV Golf attendance",
"LIV Golf 2026 season"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "wikipedia_lookup"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-07-12T03:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nNY Post: [LIV Golf might not have enough money to finish its season](https://nypost.com/2026/06/07/sports/liv-golf-might-not-have-enough-money-to-finish-its-season/)\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"63e492580a282a67\", \"sheet_id\": \"103\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as **No** if, between August 6-9, 2026 (inclusive), President Donald Trump is anywhere within the grounds of the Trump National Golf Club Bedminster and [Liv Golf NY 2026](https://events.livgolf.com/new-york/) takes place there while Trump is present.",
"question_type": "binary",
"title": "Will Donald Trump fail to attend Liv Golf New York 2026?"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 3,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 0.53,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "15 articles",
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 34.4,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "12 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 1.34,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "3 pages",
"tool_name": "wikipedia_lookup"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "LIV Golf\u0027s Aug. 6-9 Bedminster event was still on the schedule as of late April 2026, with US tournaments cited by name.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Saudi PIF will end LIV Golf funding after the 2026 season but publicly committed to funding through this season\u0027s end.",
"credibility": 82,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "LIV CEO O\u0027Neil said in June 2026 the league is \u0027full steam ahead\u0027 and trusts PIF to fund through season\u0027s end.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "LIV Golf is seeking $250-350M in emergency financing via investor roadshow amid funding-cliff concerns.",
"credibility": 78,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "LIV postponed its inaugural New Orleans event, showing schedule instability, though the delay explicitly did not affect Bedminster.",
"credibility": 72,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "NY Post reported in June 2026 LIV Golf \u0027might not have enough money to finish its season.\u0027",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "LIV successfully held its scheduled May 7-10 event at Trump National Virginia despite funding turmoil.",
"credibility": 88,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Trump hosted and attended the May 2026 LIV event at his Virginia course, and attended a PGA event at Doral.",
"credibility": 88,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Bedminster would be LIV\u0027s ninth-plus event at a Trump-owned course, reflecting a consistent Trump-attendance pattern.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Trump gave a lucid late-April 2026 interview and was actively working on Air Force One projects in June, indicating he is alive and active.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "An April 2026 interview references Trump being \u0027safe\u0027 after a shooting incident involving a radicalized gunman.",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No confirmation the Bedminster event remains scheduled as of July/August 2026",
"No data on Trump\u0027s specific August 2026 calendar",
"No base rate on LIV events canceled/relocated on short notice",
"Whether emergency financing closed successfully"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether LIV secures funding to hold Bedminster",
"Possible last-minute relocation or cancellation",
"Trump\u0027s availability given presidential duties/security",
"Health/safety concerns after referenced shooting incident"
],
"n_evidence": 11
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 28.0,
"plan": 12.57,
"research": 34.4,
"synthesis": 19.3
}
}