Estimate the base rate that July is the yearly-high month via simulation, then adjust up or down based on the observed FAO/commodity price trend and persistence of the described supply shocks, blending the correlated sub-question probabilities with weighted average.
## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.78, Volume: $13.0M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.22, Volume: $11.6M - "Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?" → Yes: 0.59, Volume: $1.2M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $8.7M - "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 11?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $183.3K - "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.02, Volume: $1.2M - "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 11?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $180.8K - "Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 11?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $156.4K - "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?" → Yes: 0.17, Volume: $653.5K
1. [sq1 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | RECENT] IMF global food price index (PFOODINDEXM) reached 162.58 in June 2026, up 36.8% year-over-year. 2. [sq1 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | DATED] Quarterly food index rose from 147.58 (Q2 2026) with strong double-digit YoY gains, indicating an ongoing upward trajectory in 2026. 3. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Bloomberg reports Feb 2026 Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure sent food, fuel, and fertilizer prices sharply higher earlier in 2026. 4. [sq2 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | RECENT] The IMF food index was still climbing into June 2026 (162.58), with no clear peak-and-decline pattern evident before mid-year. 5. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | RECENT] As of June 18, 2026, US-Iran interim deal expected to reopen Strait of Hormuz, but disruptions still rippling through food supply chain. 6. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 65 | DOWN | RECENT] Bloomberg indicates the interim deal is expected to ease the strait closure, suggesting the acute geopolitical shock may be de-escalating. ## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.78, Volume: $13.0M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.22, Volume: $11.6M - "Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?" → Yes: 0.59, Volume: $1.2M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $8.7M - "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 11?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $183.3K - "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.02, Volume: $1.2M - "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 11?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $180.8K - "Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 11?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $156.4K - "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?" → Yes: 0.17, Volume: $653.5K Information gaps: - No actual FAO Food Price Index monthly values for 2026 (only IMF FRED proxy) - No base rate for how often July is the yearly-high month for FAO index - No month-by-month 2026 series to identify prior peak (e.g. Feb shock level) - No July 2026 commodity/energy price data post-deal Key uncertainties: - Whether Strait reopening reverses food price gains before July - Whether Feb Iran shock already set an unbeatable earlier-2026 peak - Divergence between IMF FRED proxy and actual FAO index - Persistence of fertilizer/energy cost pass-through into July
You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates — your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.
## Question
Will the FAO Food Price Index reach a new yearly high for July 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
Bloomberg June 18, 2026: [The Iran War May Be Over. Higher Food Prices Aren’t.](https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2026-iran-war-food-inflation/?embedded-checkout=true)
> The US and Israeli attack on Iran in late February and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz sent shocks throughout the global economy, pushing up prices for fuel, energy, fertilizers, and other agricultural and industrial products. Even though the US and Iran have now agreed to an interim deal that is expected to reopen the strait, the disruptions are still rippling through the food supply chain. That's adding costs and friction at every level, and deepening the pain for consumers who have faced years of inflation.
`{"format": "metac_reveal_and_close_in_period", "info": {"post_id": 44413, "question_id": 44422}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as **Yes** if Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations' [FAO Food Price Index](https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/) value for July 2026, upon its initial release date, is higher than its level for any other month in 2026. 
## Fine Print
This question's information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44413) which opened on 2026-07-03 12:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.
## Sub-question decomposition
- (w=0.40) Is the FAO Food Price Index in mid-2026 in a sustained upward trend (each month higher than the last)? — For July to be the yearly high, prices must be trending upward through July rather than having peaked earlier.
- (w=0.35) Will July 2026 exceed the previous 2026 peak month (avoiding an earlier-in-year high, e.g. from the Feb Iran shock)? — The described geopolitical shock in Feb 2026 could have created an early-year peak that July would need to surpass.
- (w=0.25) Do the geopolitical/supply disruptions described (Strait of Hormuz, fertilizer/energy costs) remain elevated or worsening into July 2026? — Persistence of the price-driving shock determines whether the index keeps climbing to a new high in July.
Combination rule: **weighted_average**
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | RECENT] IMF global food price index (PFOODINDEXM) reached 162.58 in June 2026, up 36.8% year-over-year.
2. [sq1 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | DATED] Quarterly food index rose from 147.58 (Q2 2026) with strong double-digit YoY gains, indicating an ongoing upward trajectory in 2026.
3. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Bloomberg reports Feb 2026 Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure sent food, fuel, and fertilizer prices sharply higher earlier in 2026.
4. [sq2 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | RECENT] The IMF food index was still climbing into June 2026 (162.58), with no clear peak-and-decline pattern evident before mid-year.
5. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | RECENT] As of June 18, 2026, US-Iran interim deal expected to reopen Strait of Hormuz, but disruptions still rippling through food supply chain.
6. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 65 | DOWN | RECENT] Bloomberg indicates the interim deal is expected to ease the strait closure, suggesting the acute geopolitical shock may be de-escalating.
## Cross-Market Signals
### Polymarket
- "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.78, Volume: $13.0M
- "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.22, Volume: $11.6M
- "Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?" → Yes: 0.59, Volume: $1.2M
- "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $8.7M
- "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 11?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $183.3K
- "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.02, Volume: $1.2M
- "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 11?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $180.8K
- "Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 11?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $156.4K
- "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?" → Yes: 0.17, Volume: $653.5K
Information gaps:
- No actual FAO Food Price Index monthly values for 2026 (only IMF FRED proxy)
- No base rate for how often July is the yearly-high month for FAO index
- No month-by-month 2026 series to identify prior peak (e.g. Feb shock level)
- No July 2026 commodity/energy price data post-deal
Key uncertainties:
- Whether Strait reopening reverses food price gains before July
- Whether Feb Iran shock already set an unbeatable earlier-2026 peak
- Divergence between IMF FRED proxy and actual FAO index
- Persistence of fertilizer/energy cost pass-through into July
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The status quo outcome — what happens if nothing changes from today.
(c) A brief scenario that results in NO.
(d) A brief scenario that results in YES.
## Calibration guidance
- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition — independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.
- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.
- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid >0.97 or <0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological — overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question — move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.
- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or "very recent" claim — especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility — must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.
- **Also provide a holistic estimate** — your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) (d) above — 5-8 sentences total>",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq2": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq3": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>
},
"holistic_p_yes": <float in [0.01, 0.99] — your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition>,
"what_would_change_my_mind": "<1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%>"
}
{
"forecast": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | RECENT] IMF global food price index (PFOODINDEXM) reached 162.58 in June 2026, up 36.8% year-over-year.\n2. [sq1 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | DATED] Quarterly food index rose from 147.58 (Q2 2026) with strong double-digit YoY gains, indicating an ongoing upward trajectory in 2026.\n3. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Bloomberg reports Feb 2026 Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure sent food, fuel, and fertilizer prices sharply higher earlier in 2026.\n4. [sq2 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | RECENT] The IMF food index was still climbing into June 2026 (162.58), with no clear peak-and-decline pattern evident before mid-year.\n5. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | RECENT] As of June 18, 2026, US-Iran interim deal expected to reopen Strait of Hormuz, but disruptions still rippling through food supply chain.\n6. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 65 | DOWN | RECENT] Bloomberg indicates the interim deal is expected to ease the strait closure, suggesting the acute geopolitical shock may be de-escalating.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.78, Volume: $13.0M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.22, Volume: $11.6M\n- \"Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.59, Volume: $1.2M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $8.7M\n- \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 11?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $183.3K\n- \"Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.02, Volume: $1.2M\n- \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 11?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $180.8K\n- \"Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 11?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $156.4K\n- \"US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.17, Volume: $653.5K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No actual FAO Food Price Index monthly values for 2026 (only IMF FRED proxy)\n - No base rate for how often July is the yearly-high month for FAO index\n - No month-by-month 2026 series to identify prior peak (e.g. Feb shock level)\n - No July 2026 commodity/energy price data post-deal\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether Strait reopening reverses food price gains before July\n - Whether Feb Iran shock already set an unbeatable earlier-2026 peak\n - Divergence between IMF FRED proxy and actual FAO index\n - Persistence of fertilizer/energy cost pass-through into July",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates \u2014 your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.\n\n## Question\nWill the FAO Food Price Index reach a new yearly high for July 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nBloomberg June 18, 2026: [The Iran War May Be Over. Higher Food Prices Aren\u2019t.](https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2026-iran-war-food-inflation/?embedded-checkout=true)\n\n\u003e The US and Israeli attack on Iran in late February and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz sent shocks throughout the global economy, pushing up prices for fuel, energy, fertilizers, and other agricultural and industrial products. Even though the US and Iran have now agreed to an interim deal that is expected to reopen the strait, the disruptions are still rippling through the food supply chain. That\u0027s adding costs and friction at every level, and deepening the pain for consumers who have faced years of inflation.\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 44413, \"question_id\": 44422}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations\u0027 [FAO Food Price Index](https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/) value for July 2026, upon its initial release date, is higher than its level for any other month in 2026.\u0026#x20;\n\n## Fine Print\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44413) which opened on 2026-07-03 12:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.\n\n## Sub-question decomposition\n- (w=0.40) Is the FAO Food Price Index in mid-2026 in a sustained upward trend (each month higher than the last)? \u2014 For July to be the yearly high, prices must be trending upward through July rather than having peaked earlier.\n- (w=0.35) Will July 2026 exceed the previous 2026 peak month (avoiding an earlier-in-year high, e.g. from the Feb Iran shock)? \u2014 The described geopolitical shock in Feb 2026 could have created an early-year peak that July would need to surpass.\n- (w=0.25) Do the geopolitical/supply disruptions described (Strait of Hormuz, fertilizer/energy costs) remain elevated or worsening into July 2026? \u2014 Persistence of the price-driving shock determines whether the index keeps climbing to a new high in July.\n\nCombination rule: **weighted_average**\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | RECENT] IMF global food price index (PFOODINDEXM) reached 162.58 in June 2026, up 36.8% year-over-year.\n2. [sq1 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | DATED] Quarterly food index rose from 147.58 (Q2 2026) with strong double-digit YoY gains, indicating an ongoing upward trajectory in 2026.\n3. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Bloomberg reports Feb 2026 Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure sent food, fuel, and fertilizer prices sharply higher earlier in 2026.\n4. [sq2 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | RECENT] The IMF food index was still climbing into June 2026 (162.58), with no clear peak-and-decline pattern evident before mid-year.\n5. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | RECENT] As of June 18, 2026, US-Iran interim deal expected to reopen Strait of Hormuz, but disruptions still rippling through food supply chain.\n6. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 65 | DOWN | RECENT] Bloomberg indicates the interim deal is expected to ease the strait closure, suggesting the acute geopolitical shock may be de-escalating.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.78, Volume: $13.0M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.22, Volume: $11.6M\n- \"Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.59, Volume: $1.2M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $8.7M\n- \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 11?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $183.3K\n- \"Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.02, Volume: $1.2M\n- \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 11?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $180.8K\n- \"Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 11?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $156.4K\n- \"US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.17, Volume: $653.5K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No actual FAO Food Price Index monthly values for 2026 (only IMF FRED proxy)\n - No base rate for how often July is the yearly-high month for FAO index\n - No month-by-month 2026 series to identify prior peak (e.g. Feb shock level)\n - No July 2026 commodity/energy price data post-deal\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether Strait reopening reverses food price gains before July\n - Whether Feb Iran shock already set an unbeatable earlier-2026 peak\n - Divergence between IMF FRED proxy and actual FAO index\n - Persistence of fertilizer/energy cost pass-through into July\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The status quo outcome \u2014 what happens if nothing changes from today.\n (c) A brief scenario that results in NO.\n (d) A brief scenario that results in YES.\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition \u2014 independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.\n- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.\n- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid \u003e0.97 or \u003c0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological \u2014 overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.\n- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question \u2014 move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.\n- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or \"very recent\" claim \u2014 especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility \u2014 must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.\n- **Also provide a holistic estimate** \u2014 your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) (b) (c) (d) above \u2014 5-8 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"sub_question_estimates\": {\n \"sq1\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq2\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq3\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e\n },\n \"holistic_p_yes\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99] \u2014 your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition\u003e,\n \"what_would_change_my_mind\": \"\u003c1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%\u003e\"\n}\n",
"holistic_p_yes": 0.55,
"models": [
"opus"
],
"p_yes": 0.5425000000000001,
"rationale": "(a) The question resolves on July 2026\u0027s FAO index release (~early August 2026), so effectively July must be the highest month of Jan\u2013July 2026. (b) Status quo: the IMF food-price proxy was still climbing into June 2026 (162.58, +36.8% YoY) with no peak-and-decline pattern, so momentum favors July setting another year-to-date high. (c) NO scenario: the June 18 interim US-Iran deal reopens the Strait of Hormuz and rapidly relieves fuel/fertilizer costs, causing food prices to plateau or dip in July while an earlier month (Feb/March shock or June) retains the high. (d) YES scenario: supply-chain disruptions keep rippling with typical lags, fertilizer/energy pass-through continues, and the momentum carries July above all prior 2026 months. Key uncertainties are the FRED proxy vs. actual FAO divergence and how quickly de-escalation reverses gains. Given clear upward momentum but real reversal risk from the strait reopening, this is roughly a coin flip leaning slightly yes.",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": 0.55,
"sq2": 0.55,
"sq3": 0.5
},
"what_would_change_my_mind": "Actual FAO monthly values showing either a decisive June/July acceleration (push above 70%) or an early-2026 Feb/March peak that July fails to surpass, or clear evidence the strait reopening sharply cut food prices in July (push below 30%)."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "economics",
"n_sub_qs": 3,
"n_tools": 3,
"reasoning_approach": "Estimate the base rate that July is the yearly-high month via simulation, then adjust up or down based on the observed FAO/commodity price trend and persistence of the described supply shocks, blending the correlated sub-question probabilities with weighted average.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Is the FAO Food Price Index in mid-2026 in a sustained upward trend (each month higher than the last)?",
"rationale": "For July to be the yearly high, prices must be trending upward through July rather than having peaked earlier.",
"weight": 0.4
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will July 2026 exceed the previous 2026 peak month (avoiding an earlier-in-year high, e.g. from the Feb Iran shock)?",
"rationale": "The described geopolitical shock in Feb 2026 could have created an early-year peak that July would need to surpass.",
"weight": 0.35
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Do the geopolitical/supply disruptions described (Strait of Hormuz, fertilizer/energy costs) remain elevated or worsening into July 2026?",
"rationale": "Persistence of the price-driving shock determines whether the index keeps climbing to a new high in July.",
"weight": 0.25
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_months": 36,
"search_text": "FAO food price index global food price"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2"
],
"tool_name": "fred_data"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_months": 36,
"search_text": "global commodity food price index",
"series_ids": [
"PFOODINDEXM",
"PALLFNFINDEXM"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2"
],
"tool_name": "fred_data"
},
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\n# Base rate: probability that July is the yearly-high month among 12 months.\n# Uniform baseline = 1/12 for months elapsed, but the question resolves on whether July \u003e all other 2026 months.\n# With upward trend, later months more likely to be high. Simulate simple random-walk with drift to estimate P(July is max of Jan-Dec).\nnp.random.seed(0)\nnsim=200000\ndrifts=[0.0,0.005,0.01,0.02]\nfor d in drifts:\n count=0\n for _ in range(nsim):\n vals=np.cumsum(np.random.normal(d,0.02,12))\n if np.argmax(vals)==6: # July index 6\n count+=1\n print(\u0027drift\u0027,d,\u0027P(July=max)\u0027,count/nsim)",
"description": "Estimate probability July is the yearly maximum under random-walk-with-drift scenarios for food price index."
},
"target_sub_questions": [],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-07-11T12:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nBloomberg June 18, 2026: [The Iran War May Be Over. Higher Food Prices Aren\u2019t.](https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2026-iran-war-food-inflation/?embedded-checkout=true)\n\n\u003e The US and Israeli attack on Iran in late February and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz sent shocks throughout the global economy, pushing up prices for fuel, energy, fertilizers, and other agricultural and industrial products. Even though the US and Iran have now agreed to an interim deal that is expected to reopen the strait, the disruptions are still rippling through the food supply chain. That\u0027s adding costs and friction at every level, and deepening the pain for consumers who have faced years of inflation.\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 44413, \"question_id\": 44422}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations\u0027 [FAO Food Price Index](https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/) value for July 2026, upon its initial release date, is higher than its level for any other month in 2026.\u0026#x20;\n\n## Fine Print\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44413) which opened on 2026-07-03 12:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.",
"question_type": "binary",
"title": "Will the FAO Food Price Index reach a new yearly high for July 2026?"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.78, Volume: $13.0M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.22, Volume: $11.6M\n- \"Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.59, Volume: $1.2M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $8.7M\n- \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 11?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $183.3K\n- \"Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.02, Volume: $1.2M\n- \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 11?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $180.8K\n- \"Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 11?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $156.4K\n- \"US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.17, Volume: $653.5K",
"errors": [
"fred_data: No series to fetch: pass series_ids and/or a search_text that resolves to series."
],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 1,
"n_tools": 2,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 9.09,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "5 series",
"tool_name": "fred_data"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 10.78,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Estimate probability July is the yearly maximum under random",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "IMF global food price index (PFOODINDEXM) reached 162.58 in June 2026, up 36.8% year-over-year.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "fred_data",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Quarterly food index rose from 147.58 (Q2 2026) with strong double-digit YoY gains, indicating an ongoing upward trajectory in 2026.",
"credibility": 78,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "fred_data",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Bloomberg reports Feb 2026 Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure sent food, fuel, and fertilizer prices sharply higher earlier in 2026.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "The IMF food index was still climbing into June 2026 (162.58), with no clear peak-and-decline pattern evident before mid-year.",
"credibility": 78,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "fred_data",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "As of June 18, 2026, US-Iran interim deal expected to reopen Strait of Hormuz, but disruptions still rippling through food supply chain.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Bloomberg indicates the interim deal is expected to ease the strait closure, suggesting the acute geopolitical shock may be de-escalating.",
"credibility": 65,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No actual FAO Food Price Index monthly values for 2026 (only IMF FRED proxy)",
"No base rate for how often July is the yearly-high month for FAO index",
"No month-by-month 2026 series to identify prior peak (e.g. Feb shock level)",
"No July 2026 commodity/energy price data post-deal"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether Strait reopening reverses food price gains before July",
"Whether Feb Iran shock already set an unbeatable earlier-2026 peak",
"Divergence between IMF FRED proxy and actual FAO index",
"Persistence of fertilizer/energy cost pass-through into July"
],
"n_evidence": 6
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 31.17,
"plan": 22.53,
"research": 10.83,
"synthesis": 13.27
}
}