Each sub-question estimates the probability a given state (or Other) holds the single hottest US reading on July 31, 2026; since these are mutually exclusive outcomes that should sum to ~1, the weighted average blends the historical base rates into a normalized distribution across the four options.
## Cross-Market Signals ### Kalshi _Kalshi lookup failed: Client error '429 Too Many Requests' for url 'https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?status=open&limit=100&cursor=CgwIy-bE0gYQgN_QuQESOUtYTVZFU1BPUlRTTVVMVElHQU1FRVhURU5ERUQtUzIwMjZCQjc1REZCQzM2Qi0yRTg5NTUxRkZDMA' For more information check: https://developer.mozilla.org/en-US/docs/Web/HTTP/Status/429_ ### Polymarket - "Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $3.6M - "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.79, Volume: $12.9M - "Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $476.3K - "Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?" → Yes: 1.00, Volume: $472.3K - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.21, Volume: $11.5M - "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $1.8M - "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.03, Volume: $1.1M
1. [sq1 | question_description | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | DATED] On July 31, 2025, the hottest US temperature (43.3C) was recorded at Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport, Arizona. 2. [sq2 | general_knowledge | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | DATED] California's Death Valley (Furnace Creek) frequently records the highest US temperatures in late July, often exceeding Arizona readings. 3. [sq4 | general_knowledge | WEAK cred 60 | UP | DATED] Nevada (e.g., Las Vegas) also routinely competes for hottest late-July US readings. 4. [sq3 | question_description | WEAK cred 65 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] On May 31, 2026, multiple Texas stations recorded the highest US max temperature, but Texas is typically not hottest in late July. ## Cross-Market Signals ### Kalshi _Kalshi lookup failed: Client error '429 Too Many Requests' for url 'https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?status=open&limit=100&cursor=CgwIy-bE0gYQgN_QuQESOUtYTVZFU1BPUlRTTVVMVElHQU1FRVhURU5ERUQtUzIwMjZCQjc1REZCQzM2Qi0yRTg5NTUxRkZDMA' For more information check: https://developer.mozilla.org/en-US/docs/Web/HTTP/Status/429_ ### Polymarket - "Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $3.6M - "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.79, Volume: $12.9M - "Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $476.3K - "Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?" → Yes: 1.00, Volume: $472.3K - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.21, Volume: $11.5M - "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $1.8M - "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.03, Volume: $1.1M Information gaps: - No multi-year historical base rate of which state held July 31 hottest reading - No data on whether Ogimet includes Death Valley station on July 31 - No 2026 summer heat/climate forecast for Southwest - No breakdown of how often ties occur and tie-break outcomes Key uncertainties: - Whether Death Valley (CA) station reports on the day - Year-to-year variability in which desert peaks hottest - Station availability/reporting gaps on Ogimet at hour 23 - Tie-break rules favoring alphabetical/most-stations state
You are an elite superforecaster. Estimate the probability of each option for this Metaculus multiple-choice question.
## Question
What state will have the hottest temperature on July 31, 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
On July 31, 2025, the hottest temperature recorded in the USA was [reported](https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynext?lang=en&state=United+S&rank=10&ano=2025&mes=07&day=31&hora=23&Send=send) at 43.3 Celsius degrees, at Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport in Arizona.
`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "88cd65dc9f6bda61", "sheet_id": "96"}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as the state with the weather station recording the highest maximum temperature in the United States according to [Ogimet](https://www.ogimet.com/ranking.phtml.en) on July 31, 2026. A state other than the three listed resolves as Other.
## Fine Print
Ensure hour is set to 23.
For example on May 31, 2026, three weather stations recorded the highest maximum temperature [were](https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynext?lang=en&state=United+S&rank=10&ano=2026&mes=05&day=31&hora=23&Send=send) Abilene Regional Airport, Lubbock International Airport, and Sheppard Air Force Base, all in Texas.
In the event of multiple weather stations from multiple states having the same highest temperature, the question resolves to the one with the most weather stations recording that temperature. In the event of a tie, the question resolves to the state appearing as its own named option or the state that appears first alphabetically,
## Options
- Texas
- Arizona
- Nevada
- Other
## Sub-question decomposition (planner)
- (w=0.30) Will the hottest US temperature on July 31, 2026 be recorded at a station in Arizona? — Arizona (Phoenix) recorded the 2025 hottest reading and is a perennial candidate for late-July extreme heat.
- (w=0.30) Will the hottest US temperature on July 31, 2026 be recorded at a station in California? — Death Valley, California routinely produces the highest US temperatures in summer and is often the single hottest statio
- (w=0.20) Will the hottest US temperature on July 31, 2026 be recorded at a station in Texas? — Texas frequently registers extreme late-July heat and won the example resolution for May 31, 2026.
- (w=0.20) Will the hottest US temperature on July 31, 2026 be recorded in a state other than Arizona, California, or Texas (e.g., Nevada)? — Other desert Southwest states like Nevada can occasionally record the top reading, capturing the 'Other' outcome.
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | question_description | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | DATED] On July 31, 2025, the hottest US temperature (43.3C) was recorded at Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport, Arizona.
2. [sq2 | general_knowledge | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | DATED] California's Death Valley (Furnace Creek) frequently records the highest US temperatures in late July, often exceeding Arizona readings.
3. [sq4 | general_knowledge | WEAK cred 60 | UP | DATED] Nevada (e.g., Las Vegas) also routinely competes for hottest late-July US readings.
4. [sq3 | question_description | WEAK cred 65 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] On May 31, 2026, multiple Texas stations recorded the highest US max temperature, but Texas is typically not hottest in late July.
## Cross-Market Signals
### Kalshi
_Kalshi lookup failed: Client error '429 Too Many Requests' for url 'https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?status=open&limit=100&cursor=CgwIy-bE0gYQgN_QuQESOUtYTVZFU1BPUlRTTVVMVElHQU1FRVhURU5ERUQtUzIwMjZCQjc1REZCQzM2Qi0yRTg5NTUxRkZDMA'
For more information check: https://developer.mozilla.org/en-US/docs/Web/HTTP/Status/429_
### Polymarket
- "Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $3.6M
- "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.79, Volume: $12.9M
- "Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $476.3K
- "Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?" → Yes: 1.00, Volume: $472.3K
- "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.21, Volume: $11.5M
- "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $1.8M
- "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.03, Volume: $1.1M
Information gaps:
- No multi-year historical base rate of which state held July 31 hottest reading
- No data on whether Ogimet includes Death Valley station on July 31
- No 2026 summer heat/climate forecast for Southwest
- No breakdown of how often ties occur and tie-break outcomes
Key uncertainties:
- Whether Death Valley (CA) station reports on the day
- Year-to-year variability in which desert peaks hottest
- Station availability/reporting gaps on Ogimet at hour 23
- Tie-break rules favoring alphabetical/most-stations state
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving probabilities, address these explicitly in your rationale:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The status quo outcome — the option most likely if nothing changes from today.
(c) An outcome that would be SURPRISING but plausible.
## Calibration guidance
- **Status quo anchoring.** Good forecasters put extra weight on the status quo option because the world changes slowly most of the time.
- **Leave moderate probability on most options.** Good forecasters don't drop options to ~0% — leave ≥3-5% on every option to account for unexpected outcomes, unless you have strong specific evidence ruling them out.
- Avoid uniform-distribution laziness — most options are not equally likely.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) for these options appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong prior and stay close to them absent specific contrary evidence.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) above, then explain your distribution — 4-7 sentences total>",
"probabilities": {
"Texas": <prob>,
"Arizona": <prob>,
"Nevada": <prob>,
"Other": <prob>
}
}
Probabilities MUST sum to ~1.0 (renormalization is applied; close enough is fine).
{
"forecast": {
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | question_description | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | DATED] On July 31, 2025, the hottest US temperature (43.3C) was recorded at Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport, Arizona.\n2. [sq2 | general_knowledge | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | DATED] California\u0027s Death Valley (Furnace Creek) frequently records the highest US temperatures in late July, often exceeding Arizona readings.\n3. [sq4 | general_knowledge | WEAK cred 60 | UP | DATED] Nevada (e.g., Las Vegas) also routinely competes for hottest late-July US readings.\n4. [sq3 | question_description | WEAK cred 65 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] On May 31, 2026, multiple Texas stations recorded the highest US max temperature, but Texas is typically not hottest in late July.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Kalshi\n_Kalshi lookup failed: Client error \u0027429 Too Many Requests\u0027 for url \u0027https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?status=open\u0026limit=100\u0026cursor=CgwIy-bE0gYQgN_QuQESOUtYTVZFU1BPUlRTTVVMVElHQU1FRVhURU5ERUQtUzIwMjZCQjc1REZCQzM2Qi0yRTg5NTUxRkZDMA\u0027\nFor more information check: https://developer.mozilla.org/en-US/docs/Web/HTTP/Status/429_\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $3.6M\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.79, Volume: $12.9M\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $476.3K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 1.00, Volume: $472.3K\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.21, Volume: $11.5M\n- \"US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $1.8M\n- \"Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.03, Volume: $1.1M\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No multi-year historical base rate of which state held July 31 hottest reading\n - No data on whether Ogimet includes Death Valley station on July 31\n - No 2026 summer heat/climate forecast for Southwest\n - No breakdown of how often ties occur and tie-break outcomes\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether Death Valley (CA) station reports on the day\n - Year-to-year variability in which desert peaks hottest\n - Station availability/reporting gaps on Ogimet at hour 23\n - Tie-break rules favoring alphabetical/most-stations state",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Estimate the probability of each option for this Metaculus multiple-choice question.\n\n## Question\nWhat state will have the hottest temperature on July 31, 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nOn July 31, 2025, the hottest temperature recorded in the USA was [reported](https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynext?lang=en\u0026state=United+S\u0026rank=10\u0026ano=2025\u0026mes=07\u0026day=31\u0026hora=23\u0026Send=send) at 43.3 Celsius degrees, at Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport in Arizona.\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"88cd65dc9f6bda61\", \"sheet_id\": \"96\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the state with the weather station recording the highest maximum temperature in the United States according to [Ogimet](https://www.ogimet.com/ranking.phtml.en) on July 31, 2026. A state other than the three listed resolves as Other.\n\n## Fine Print\nEnsure hour is set to 23. \n\nFor example on May 31, 2026, three weather stations recorded the highest maximum temperature [were](https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynext?lang=en\u0026state=United+S\u0026rank=10\u0026ano=2026\u0026mes=05\u0026day=31\u0026hora=23\u0026Send=send) Abilene Regional Airport, Lubbock International Airport, and Sheppard Air Force Base, all in Texas. \n\nIn the event of multiple weather stations from multiple states having the same highest temperature, the question resolves to the one with the most weather stations recording that temperature. In the event of a tie, the question resolves to the state appearing as its own named option or the state that appears first alphabetically,\n\n## Options\n - Texas\n - Arizona\n - Nevada\n - Other\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n- (w=0.30) Will the hottest US temperature on July 31, 2026 be recorded at a station in Arizona? \u2014 Arizona (Phoenix) recorded the 2025 hottest reading and is a perennial candidate for late-July extreme heat.\n- (w=0.30) Will the hottest US temperature on July 31, 2026 be recorded at a station in California? \u2014 Death Valley, California routinely produces the highest US temperatures in summer and is often the single hottest statio\n- (w=0.20) Will the hottest US temperature on July 31, 2026 be recorded at a station in Texas? \u2014 Texas frequently registers extreme late-July heat and won the example resolution for May 31, 2026.\n- (w=0.20) Will the hottest US temperature on July 31, 2026 be recorded in a state other than Arizona, California, or Texas (e.g., Nevada)? \u2014 Other desert Southwest states like Nevada can occasionally record the top reading, capturing the \u0027Other\u0027 outcome.\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | question_description | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | DATED] On July 31, 2025, the hottest US temperature (43.3C) was recorded at Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport, Arizona.\n2. [sq2 | general_knowledge | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | DATED] California\u0027s Death Valley (Furnace Creek) frequently records the highest US temperatures in late July, often exceeding Arizona readings.\n3. [sq4 | general_knowledge | WEAK cred 60 | UP | DATED] Nevada (e.g., Las Vegas) also routinely competes for hottest late-July US readings.\n4. [sq3 | question_description | WEAK cred 65 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] On May 31, 2026, multiple Texas stations recorded the highest US max temperature, but Texas is typically not hottest in late July.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Kalshi\n_Kalshi lookup failed: Client error \u0027429 Too Many Requests\u0027 for url \u0027https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?status=open\u0026limit=100\u0026cursor=CgwIy-bE0gYQgN_QuQESOUtYTVZFU1BPUlRTTVVMVElHQU1FRVhURU5ERUQtUzIwMjZCQjc1REZCQzM2Qi0yRTg5NTUxRkZDMA\u0027\nFor more information check: https://developer.mozilla.org/en-US/docs/Web/HTTP/Status/429_\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $3.6M\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.79, Volume: $12.9M\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $476.3K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 1.00, Volume: $472.3K\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.21, Volume: $11.5M\n- \"US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $1.8M\n- \"Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.03, Volume: $1.1M\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No multi-year historical base rate of which state held July 31 hottest reading\n - No data on whether Ogimet includes Death Valley station on July 31\n - No 2026 summer heat/climate forecast for Southwest\n - No breakdown of how often ties occur and tie-break outcomes\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether Death Valley (CA) station reports on the day\n - Year-to-year variability in which desert peaks hottest\n - Station availability/reporting gaps on Ogimet at hour 23\n - Tie-break rules favoring alphabetical/most-stations state\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving probabilities, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The status quo outcome \u2014 the option most likely if nothing changes from today.\n (c) An outcome that would be SURPRISING but plausible.\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Status quo anchoring.** Good forecasters put extra weight on the status quo option because the world changes slowly most of the time.\n- **Leave moderate probability on most options.** Good forecasters don\u0027t drop options to ~0% \u2014 leave \u22653-5% on every option to account for unexpected outcomes, unless you have strong specific evidence ruling them out.\n- Avoid uniform-distribution laziness \u2014 most options are not equally likely.\n- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) for these options appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong prior and stay close to them absent specific contrary evidence.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) (b) (c) above, then explain your distribution \u2014 4-7 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"probabilities\": {\n \"Texas\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Arizona\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Nevada\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Other\": \u003cprob\u003e\n }\n}\n\nProbabilities MUST sum to ~1.0 (renormalization is applied; close enough is fine).\n",
"models": [
"opus"
],
"probabilities": {
"Arizona": 0.34,
"Nevada": 0.13,
"Other": 0.38,
"Texas": 0.15
},
"rationale": "(a) The question resolves ~9 months out, on July 31, 2026, so only climatological base rates matter, not current conditions. (b) The status quo/anchor is the 2025 result: Arizona (Phoenix Sky Harbor) recorded the hottest US reading at 43.3C, notably NOT Death Valley \u2014 suggesting the ultra-hot California stations either aren\u0027t captured in Ogimet\u0027s hour-23 ranking or didn\u0027t top it that day. (c) A surprising-but-plausible outcome would be Texas winning (as it did in the May 31 example), which is atypical for late July when desert Southwest heat dominates. Even so, California possesses many extreme desert stations (Death Valley, Needles, Thermal) that frequently produce the nation\u0027s top readings, and California falls under \u0027Other\u0027, giving that bucket substantial weight. Arizona retains strong status-quo weight given the 2025 result and Phoenix\u0027s reliable reporting. Nevada (Las Vegas) is a legitimate but secondary contender, and Texas is a low-probability late-July winner. I therefore split heavily between Other (CA-driven) and Arizona, with modest mass on Nevada and Texas.",
"top_option": "Other"
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "climate",
"n_sub_qs": 4,
"n_tools": 1,
"reasoning_approach": "Each sub-question estimates the probability a given state (or Other) holds the single hottest US reading on July 31, 2026; since these are mutually exclusive outcomes that should sum to ~1, the weighted average blends the historical base rates into a normalized distribution across the four options.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will the hottest US temperature on July 31, 2026 be recorded at a station in Arizona?",
"rationale": "Arizona (Phoenix) recorded the 2025 hottest reading and is a perennial candidate for late-July extreme heat.",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will the hottest US temperature on July 31, 2026 be recorded at a station in California?",
"rationale": "Death Valley, California routinely produces the highest US temperatures in summer and is often the single hottest station.",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will the hottest US temperature on July 31, 2026 be recorded at a station in Texas?",
"rationale": "Texas frequently registers extreme late-July heat and won the example resolution for May 31, 2026.",
"weight": 0.2
},
{
"id": "sq4",
"question": "Will the hottest US temperature on July 31, 2026 be recorded in a state other than Arizona, California, or Texas (e.g., Nevada)?",
"rationale": "Other desert Southwest states like Nevada can occasionally record the top reading, capturing the \u0027Other\u0027 outcome.",
"weight": 0.2
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\n# Base-rate reasoning for hottest US station in late July.\n# Historical late-July daily max hotspots are almost always in the Desert Southwest.\n# Death Valley (CA) holds the US and world record; Phoenix/AZ deserts also extreme.\n# Rough historical frequency of single hottest US station on a late-July day:\ncandidates = {\u0027California_DeathValley\u0027: 0.40, \u0027Arizona\u0027: 0.28, \u0027Nevada\u0027: 0.12, \u0027Texas\u0027: 0.10, \u0027Other_SW\u0027: 0.10}\ntotal = sum(candidates.values())\nfor k,v in candidates.items():\n print(k, round(v/total,3))\nprint(\u0027sum\u0027, round(total,3))",
"description": "Estimate base-rate probabilities for which state records the single hottest US temperature on a late-July day, weighting Desert Southwest hotspots."
},
"target_sub_questions": [],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-07-10T21:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nOn July 31, 2025, the hottest temperature recorded in the USA was [reported](https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynext?lang=en\u0026state=United+S\u0026rank=10\u0026ano=2025\u0026mes=07\u0026day=31\u0026hora=23\u0026Send=send) at 43.3 Celsius degrees, at Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport in Arizona.\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"88cd65dc9f6bda61\", \"sheet_id\": \"96\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the state with the weather station recording the highest maximum temperature in the United States according to [Ogimet](https://www.ogimet.com/ranking.phtml.en) on July 31, 2026. A state other than the three listed resolves as Other.\n\n## Fine Print\nEnsure hour is set to 23. \n\nFor example on May 31, 2026, three weather stations recorded the highest maximum temperature [were](https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynext?lang=en\u0026state=United+S\u0026rank=10\u0026ano=2026\u0026mes=05\u0026day=31\u0026hora=23\u0026Send=send) Abilene Regional Airport, Lubbock International Airport, and Sheppard Air Force Base, all in Texas. \n\nIn the event of multiple weather stations from multiple states having the same highest temperature, the question resolves to the one with the most weather stations recording that temperature. In the event of a tie, the question resolves to the state appearing as its own named option or the state that appears first alphabetically,",
"options": [
"Texas",
"Arizona",
"Nevada",
"Other"
],
"question_type": "multiple_choice",
"title": "What state will have the hottest temperature on July 31, 2026?"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Kalshi\n_Kalshi lookup failed: Client error \u0027429 Too Many Requests\u0027 for url \u0027https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?status=open\u0026limit=100\u0026cursor=CgwIy-bE0gYQgN_QuQESOUtYTVZFU1BPUlRTTVVMVElHQU1FRVhURU5ERUQtUzIwMjZCQjc1REZCQzM2Qi0yRTg5NTUxRkZDMA\u0027\nFor more information check: https://developer.mozilla.org/en-US/docs/Web/HTTP/Status/429_\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $3.6M\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.79, Volume: $12.9M\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $476.3K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 1.00, Volume: $472.3K\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.21, Volume: $11.5M\n- \"US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $1.8M\n- \"Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.03, Volume: $1.1M",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 1,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 0.08,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Estimate base-rate probabilities for which state records the",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "On July 31, 2025, the hottest US temperature (43.3C) was recorded at Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport, Arizona.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "question_description",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "California\u0027s Death Valley (Furnace Creek) frequently records the highest US temperatures in late July, often exceeding Arizona readings.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "general_knowledge",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Nevada (e.g., Las Vegas) also routinely competes for hottest late-July US readings.",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "general_knowledge",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "On May 31, 2026, multiple Texas stations recorded the highest US max temperature, but Texas is typically not hottest in late July.",
"credibility": 65,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "question_description",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No multi-year historical base rate of which state held July 31 hottest reading",
"No data on whether Ogimet includes Death Valley station on July 31",
"No 2026 summer heat/climate forecast for Southwest",
"No breakdown of how often ties occur and tie-break outcomes"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether Death Valley (CA) station reports on the day",
"Year-to-year variability in which desert peaks hottest",
"Station availability/reporting gaps on Ogimet at hour 23",
"Tie-break rules favoring alphabetical/most-stations state"
],
"n_evidence": 4
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 23.21,
"plan": 18.78,
"research": 0.55,
"synthesis": 10.28
}
}