Since either Apple OR Meta signing resolves the question YES, sq1 and sq2 are combined via independent_or, with sq3 providing a base-rate adjustment for Big Tech engagement with EU voluntary AI frameworks; the final estimate blends these while accounting for both firms' historically resistant stances.
## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.04, Volume: $696.9K
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | DOWN | DATED] At the September 2024 AI Pact launch, Apple, Meta, and ByteDance were notable absences while 100+ firms including Google, Microsoft, Amazon, OpenAI signed. 2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] The AI Pact remains open for signing at any time until the AI Act fully applies; by late 2025 over 230 companies had signed. 3. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No article found between January and July 2026 mentions Apple signing or planning to sign the EU AI Pact. 4. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 90 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Apple announced Tim Cook will step down as CEO on Sept 1, 2026, with John Ternus taking over amid AI-strategy pressure. 5. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 75 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Apple boosted R&D to 10.3% of revenue and overhauled Siri in 2026, signaling aggressive AI catch-up but no EU-compliance commitments cited. 6. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 55 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Apple has blocked AI coding apps and taken a restrictive stance, described as being on the 'wrong side' of AI adoption. 7. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | DOWN | DATED] Meta was a notable absentee from the AI Pact at its September 2024 launch and reportedly refused EU voluntary AI frameworks. 8. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No 2026 article found reports Meta signing or intending to sign the EU AI Pact; coverage focuses on Meta's AI models and cloud plans. 9. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 70 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Meta launched Muse Spark proprietary AI model (April 2026) and is building a cloud/API business, expanding EU-relevant AI exposure. 10. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | DATED] Most major US tech firms (Google, Microsoft, Amazon, OpenAI, Adobe, IBM, Cisco, Palantir) signed the voluntary AI Pact, showing broad Big Tech willingness. 11. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | DATED] Apple and Meta remained holdouts through late 2025, distinguishing them as consistent exceptions to broad Big Tech participation. ## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.04, Volume: $696.9K Information gaps: - No current (2026) status of the official AI Pact signatories list re Apple/Meta - No base rate for late-joining holdout firms signing voluntary EU pacts - No reporting on Apple/Meta EU regulatory strategy re AI Act compliance - Meta's stance under EU DSA/AI Act enforcement pressure unclear Key uncertainties: - Whether Apple's leadership change alters EU engagement posture - Whether AI Act enforcement pressure pushes holdouts to sign before Sept 2026 - Whether Meta's growing EU AI product footprint changes its calculus - Distinction between signing AI Pact vs GPAI Code of Practice
You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates — your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.
## Question
Will Apple or Meta sign the European Commission's AI Pact before September 1, 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
According to the resolution source, "The EU AI Pact voluntary pledges call on participating companies to commit to at least three core actions:
Adopting an AI governance strategy to foster the uptake of AI in the organisation and work towards future compliance with the AI Act
Identifying and mapping AI systems likely to be categorised as high-risk under the AI Act
Promoting AI awareness and literacy among staff, ensuring ethical and responsible AI development"
`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "47997502b66b4220", "sheet_id": "91"}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as **Yes** if, before September 1, 2026, Apple or Meta appear at the AI Pact [Signatories of the pledges](https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/policies/ai-pact#ecl-inpage-Signatories-of-the-AI-Pact) list maintained by the European Commission.
## Sub-question decomposition
- (w=0.40) Will Apple appear on the EU AI Pact signatories list before September 1, 2026? — Apple is one of the two companies whose signature would resolve YES; its stance on EU AI/digital regulation has been not
- (w=0.40) Will Meta appear on the EU AI Pact signatories list before September 1, 2026? — Meta is the other company that would resolve YES; Meta has publicly declined to sign related EU voluntary commitments (e
- (w=0.20) Do major US frontier AI/tech firms generally show willingness to join the voluntary AI Pact rather than refuse EU voluntary frameworks? — The broader trend of Big Tech engagement (or refusal) with EU voluntary AI commitments informs the base rate for either
Combination rule: **independent_or**
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | DOWN | DATED] At the September 2024 AI Pact launch, Apple, Meta, and ByteDance were notable absences while 100+ firms including Google, Microsoft, Amazon, OpenAI signed.
2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] The AI Pact remains open for signing at any time until the AI Act fully applies; by late 2025 over 230 companies had signed.
3. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No article found between January and July 2026 mentions Apple signing or planning to sign the EU AI Pact.
4. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 90 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Apple announced Tim Cook will step down as CEO on Sept 1, 2026, with John Ternus taking over amid AI-strategy pressure.
5. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 75 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Apple boosted R&D to 10.3% of revenue and overhauled Siri in 2026, signaling aggressive AI catch-up but no EU-compliance commitments cited.
6. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 55 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Apple has blocked AI coding apps and taken a restrictive stance, described as being on the 'wrong side' of AI adoption.
7. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | DOWN | DATED] Meta was a notable absentee from the AI Pact at its September 2024 launch and reportedly refused EU voluntary AI frameworks.
8. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No 2026 article found reports Meta signing or intending to sign the EU AI Pact; coverage focuses on Meta's AI models and cloud plans.
9. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 70 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Meta launched Muse Spark proprietary AI model (April 2026) and is building a cloud/API business, expanding EU-relevant AI exposure.
10. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | DATED] Most major US tech firms (Google, Microsoft, Amazon, OpenAI, Adobe, IBM, Cisco, Palantir) signed the voluntary AI Pact, showing broad Big Tech willingness.
11. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | DATED] Apple and Meta remained holdouts through late 2025, distinguishing them as consistent exceptions to broad Big Tech participation.
## Cross-Market Signals
### Polymarket
- "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.04, Volume: $696.9K
Information gaps:
- No current (2026) status of the official AI Pact signatories list re Apple/Meta
- No base rate for late-joining holdout firms signing voluntary EU pacts
- No reporting on Apple/Meta EU regulatory strategy re AI Act compliance
- Meta's stance under EU DSA/AI Act enforcement pressure unclear
Key uncertainties:
- Whether Apple's leadership change alters EU engagement posture
- Whether AI Act enforcement pressure pushes holdouts to sign before Sept 2026
- Whether Meta's growing EU AI product footprint changes its calculus
- Distinction between signing AI Pact vs GPAI Code of Practice
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The status quo outcome — what happens if nothing changes from today.
(c) A brief scenario that results in NO.
(d) A brief scenario that results in YES.
## Calibration guidance
- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition — independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.
- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.
- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid >0.97 or <0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological — overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question — move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.
- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or "very recent" claim — especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility — must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.
- **Also provide a holistic estimate** — your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) (d) above — 5-8 sentences total>",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq2": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq3": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>
},
"holistic_p_yes": <float in [0.01, 0.99] — your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition>,
"what_would_change_my_mind": "<1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%>"
}
{
"forecast": {
"combination_logic": "independent_or",
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | DOWN | DATED] At the September 2024 AI Pact launch, Apple, Meta, and ByteDance were notable absences while 100+ firms including Google, Microsoft, Amazon, OpenAI signed.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] The AI Pact remains open for signing at any time until the AI Act fully applies; by late 2025 over 230 companies had signed.\n3. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No article found between January and July 2026 mentions Apple signing or planning to sign the EU AI Pact.\n4. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 90 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Apple announced Tim Cook will step down as CEO on Sept 1, 2026, with John Ternus taking over amid AI-strategy pressure.\n5. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 75 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Apple boosted R\u0026D to 10.3% of revenue and overhauled Siri in 2026, signaling aggressive AI catch-up but no EU-compliance commitments cited.\n6. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 55 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Apple has blocked AI coding apps and taken a restrictive stance, described as being on the \u0027wrong side\u0027 of AI adoption.\n7. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | DOWN | DATED] Meta was a notable absentee from the AI Pact at its September 2024 launch and reportedly refused EU voluntary AI frameworks.\n8. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No 2026 article found reports Meta signing or intending to sign the EU AI Pact; coverage focuses on Meta\u0027s AI models and cloud plans.\n9. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 70 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Meta launched Muse Spark proprietary AI model (April 2026) and is building a cloud/API business, expanding EU-relevant AI exposure.\n10. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | DATED] Most major US tech firms (Google, Microsoft, Amazon, OpenAI, Adobe, IBM, Cisco, Palantir) signed the voluntary AI Pact, showing broad Big Tech willingness.\n11. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | DATED] Apple and Meta remained holdouts through late 2025, distinguishing them as consistent exceptions to broad Big Tech participation.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.04, Volume: $696.9K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No current (2026) status of the official AI Pact signatories list re Apple/Meta\n - No base rate for late-joining holdout firms signing voluntary EU pacts\n - No reporting on Apple/Meta EU regulatory strategy re AI Act compliance\n - Meta\u0027s stance under EU DSA/AI Act enforcement pressure unclear\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether Apple\u0027s leadership change alters EU engagement posture\n - Whether AI Act enforcement pressure pushes holdouts to sign before Sept 2026\n - Whether Meta\u0027s growing EU AI product footprint changes its calculus\n - Distinction between signing AI Pact vs GPAI Code of Practice",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates \u2014 your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.\n\n## Question\nWill Apple or Meta sign the European Commission\u0027s AI Pact before September 1, 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nAccording to the resolution source, \"The EU AI Pact voluntary pledges call on participating companies to commit to at least three core actions:\n\nAdopting an AI governance strategy to foster the uptake of AI in the organisation and work towards future compliance with the AI Act\nIdentifying and mapping AI systems likely to be categorised as high-risk under the AI Act\nPromoting AI awareness and literacy among staff, ensuring ethical and responsible AI development\"\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"47997502b66b4220\", \"sheet_id\": \"91\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if, before September 1, 2026, Apple or Meta appear at the AI Pact [Signatories of the pledges](https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/policies/ai-pact#ecl-inpage-Signatories-of-the-AI-Pact) list maintained by the European Commission.\n\n## Sub-question decomposition\n- (w=0.40) Will Apple appear on the EU AI Pact signatories list before September 1, 2026? \u2014 Apple is one of the two companies whose signature would resolve YES; its stance on EU AI/digital regulation has been not\n- (w=0.40) Will Meta appear on the EU AI Pact signatories list before September 1, 2026? \u2014 Meta is the other company that would resolve YES; Meta has publicly declined to sign related EU voluntary commitments (e\n- (w=0.20) Do major US frontier AI/tech firms generally show willingness to join the voluntary AI Pact rather than refuse EU voluntary frameworks? \u2014 The broader trend of Big Tech engagement (or refusal) with EU voluntary AI commitments informs the base rate for either \n\nCombination rule: **independent_or**\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | DOWN | DATED] At the September 2024 AI Pact launch, Apple, Meta, and ByteDance were notable absences while 100+ firms including Google, Microsoft, Amazon, OpenAI signed.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] The AI Pact remains open for signing at any time until the AI Act fully applies; by late 2025 over 230 companies had signed.\n3. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No article found between January and July 2026 mentions Apple signing or planning to sign the EU AI Pact.\n4. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 90 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Apple announced Tim Cook will step down as CEO on Sept 1, 2026, with John Ternus taking over amid AI-strategy pressure.\n5. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 75 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Apple boosted R\u0026D to 10.3% of revenue and overhauled Siri in 2026, signaling aggressive AI catch-up but no EU-compliance commitments cited.\n6. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 55 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Apple has blocked AI coding apps and taken a restrictive stance, described as being on the \u0027wrong side\u0027 of AI adoption.\n7. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | DOWN | DATED] Meta was a notable absentee from the AI Pact at its September 2024 launch and reportedly refused EU voluntary AI frameworks.\n8. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No 2026 article found reports Meta signing or intending to sign the EU AI Pact; coverage focuses on Meta\u0027s AI models and cloud plans.\n9. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 70 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Meta launched Muse Spark proprietary AI model (April 2026) and is building a cloud/API business, expanding EU-relevant AI exposure.\n10. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | DATED] Most major US tech firms (Google, Microsoft, Amazon, OpenAI, Adobe, IBM, Cisco, Palantir) signed the voluntary AI Pact, showing broad Big Tech willingness.\n11. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | DATED] Apple and Meta remained holdouts through late 2025, distinguishing them as consistent exceptions to broad Big Tech participation.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.04, Volume: $696.9K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No current (2026) status of the official AI Pact signatories list re Apple/Meta\n - No base rate for late-joining holdout firms signing voluntary EU pacts\n - No reporting on Apple/Meta EU regulatory strategy re AI Act compliance\n - Meta\u0027s stance under EU DSA/AI Act enforcement pressure unclear\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether Apple\u0027s leadership change alters EU engagement posture\n - Whether AI Act enforcement pressure pushes holdouts to sign before Sept 2026\n - Whether Meta\u0027s growing EU AI product footprint changes its calculus\n - Distinction between signing AI Pact vs GPAI Code of Practice\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The status quo outcome \u2014 what happens if nothing changes from today.\n (c) A brief scenario that results in NO.\n (d) A brief scenario that results in YES.\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition \u2014 independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.\n- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.\n- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid \u003e0.97 or \u003c0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological \u2014 overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.\n- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question \u2014 move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.\n- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or \"very recent\" claim \u2014 especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility \u2014 must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.\n- **Also provide a holistic estimate** \u2014 your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) (b) (c) (d) above \u2014 5-8 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"sub_question_estimates\": {\n \"sq1\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq2\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq3\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e\n },\n \"holistic_p_yes\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99] \u2014 your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition\u003e,\n \"what_would_change_my_mind\": \"\u003c1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%\u003e\"\n}\n",
"holistic_p_yes": 0.12,
"models": [
"opus"
],
"p_yes": 0.21816800000000003,
"rationale": "(a) About 8 months remain until the September 1, 2026 deadline. (b) Status quo: both Apple and Meta have been consistent holdouts since the September 2024 launch, and no 2026 reporting suggests either is planning to sign. (c) NO scenario (most likely): both firms continue their established refusal, prioritizing minimal EU commitments and litigation/negotiation over voluntary pledges, as they\u0027ve done through late 2025. (d) YES scenario: escalating AI Act enforcement pressure, or Apple\u0027s leadership transition (Ternus taking over Sept 1, 2026) prompting a goodwill gesture, pushes one firm to sign a low-cost voluntary pledge to improve regulatory standing. Both companies have specifically distinguished themselves as exceptions to broad Big Tech participation (100+ then 230+ firms signed), which is strong evidence of deliberate refusal rather than mere delay. Meta has publicly refused related EU voluntary frameworks, making it slightly less likely than Apple.",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": 0.08,
"sq2": 0.06,
"sq3": 0.55
},
"what_would_change_my_mind": "Any 2026 reporting that Apple or Meta is planning to sign, or a major EU enforcement action making voluntary compliance strategically valuable, would push me higher; confirmation of continued explicit refusal would push me lower."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "independent_or",
"domain": "tech",
"n_sub_qs": 3,
"n_tools": 3,
"reasoning_approach": "Since either Apple OR Meta signing resolves the question YES, sq1 and sq2 are combined via independent_or, with sq3 providing a base-rate adjustment for Big Tech engagement with EU voluntary AI frameworks; the final estimate blends these while accounting for both firms\u0027 historically resistant stances.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will Apple appear on the EU AI Pact signatories list before September 1, 2026?",
"rationale": "Apple is one of the two companies whose signature would resolve YES; its stance on EU AI/digital regulation has been notably resistant.",
"weight": 0.4
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will Meta appear on the EU AI Pact signatories list before September 1, 2026?",
"rationale": "Meta is the other company that would resolve YES; Meta has publicly declined to sign related EU voluntary commitments (e.g., the AI Code of Practice).",
"weight": 0.4
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Do major US frontier AI/tech firms generally show willingness to join the voluntary AI Pact rather than refuse EU voluntary frameworks?",
"rationale": "The broader trend of Big Tech engagement (or refusal) with EU voluntary AI commitments informs the base rate for either company signing.",
"weight": 0.2
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"Apple Meta EU AI Pact signatories list 2025 2026",
"Meta refuses EU AI voluntary pledge Pact",
"Apple sign EU AI Pact commitment"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_days": 180,
"queries": [
"EU AI Pact signatories companies list update",
"Apple EU AI Act regulation stance 2025",
"Meta EU AI Code of Practice sign refuse"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Determine the current status of the EU AI Pact voluntary pledge signatories list, specifically whether Apple or Meta have signed or indicated intent to sign, and the general posture of major US tech firms toward EU voluntary AI commitments including the AI Code of Practice.",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "Will Apple or Meta sign the European Commission\u0027s AI Pact before September 1, 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-07-10T00:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nAccording to the resolution source, \"The EU AI Pact voluntary pledges call on participating companies to commit to at least three core actions:\n\nAdopting an AI governance strategy to foster the uptake of AI in the organisation and work towards future compliance with the AI Act\nIdentifying and mapping AI systems likely to be categorised as high-risk under the AI Act\nPromoting AI awareness and literacy among staff, ensuring ethical and responsible AI development\"\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"47997502b66b4220\", \"sheet_id\": \"91\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if, before September 1, 2026, Apple or Meta appear at the AI Pact [Signatories of the pledges](https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/policies/ai-pact#ecl-inpage-Signatories-of-the-AI-Pact) list maintained by the European Commission.",
"question_type": "binary",
"title": "Will Apple or Meta sign the European Commission\u0027s AI Pact before September 1, 2026?"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.04, Volume: $696.9K",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 3,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 68.0,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "0 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.73,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "22 articles",
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 31.98,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "12 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "At the September 2024 AI Pact launch, Apple, Meta, and ByteDance were notable absences while 100+ firms including Google, Microsoft, Amazon, OpenAI signed.",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "The AI Pact remains open for signing at any time until the AI Act fully applies; by late 2025 over 230 companies had signed.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "No article found between January and July 2026 mentions Apple signing or planning to sign the EU AI Pact.",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Apple announced Tim Cook will step down as CEO on Sept 1, 2026, with John Ternus taking over amid AI-strategy pressure.",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Apple boosted R\u0026D to 10.3% of revenue and overhauled Siri in 2026, signaling aggressive AI catch-up but no EU-compliance commitments cited.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Apple has blocked AI coding apps and taken a restrictive stance, described as being on the \u0027wrong side\u0027 of AI adoption.",
"credibility": 55,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Meta was a notable absentee from the AI Pact at its September 2024 launch and reportedly refused EU voluntary AI frameworks.",
"credibility": 88,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "No 2026 article found reports Meta signing or intending to sign the EU AI Pact; coverage focuses on Meta\u0027s AI models and cloud plans.",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Meta launched Muse Spark proprietary AI model (April 2026) and is building a cloud/API business, expanding EU-relevant AI exposure.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Most major US tech firms (Google, Microsoft, Amazon, OpenAI, Adobe, IBM, Cisco, Palantir) signed the voluntary AI Pact, showing broad Big Tech willingness.",
"credibility": 88,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Apple and Meta remained holdouts through late 2025, distinguishing them as consistent exceptions to broad Big Tech participation.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No current (2026) status of the official AI Pact signatories list re Apple/Meta",
"No base rate for late-joining holdout firms signing voluntary EU pacts",
"No reporting on Apple/Meta EU regulatory strategy re AI Act compliance",
"Meta\u0027s stance under EU DSA/AI Act enforcement pressure unclear"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether Apple\u0027s leadership change alters EU engagement posture",
"Whether AI Act enforcement pressure pushes holdouts to sign before Sept 2026",
"Whether Meta\u0027s growing EU AI product footprint changes its calculus",
"Distinction between signing AI Pact vs GPAI Code of Practice"
],
"n_evidence": 11
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 15.57,
"plan": 13.38,
"research": 68.0,
"synthesis": 22.86
}
}