Each sub-question defines a threshold on the August 2026 monthly high; probabilities across thresholds and the macro-support factor are blended via weighted average, calibrated primarily by the Monte Carlo distribution anchored to the current price regime and adjusted for macro and news signals.
## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?" → Yes: 0.10, Volume: $980.0K - "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.12, Volume: $2.4M
1. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo simulation estimates P(August high > $6.00) = 0.825, with median high $6.58. 2. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo simulation estimates P(August high > $6.65) = 0.461. 3. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo simulation estimates P(August high > $7.20) = 0.185; 90th percentile is $7.48. 4. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 75 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Copper futures traded around $6.21/lb in early July 2026, with a daily range of $6.19-$6.28. 5. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 78 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Over June 3-July 3, 2026 copper hit a high of $6.684 and low of $5.924, averaging $6.306. 6. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 40 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] LongForecast projects August 2026 monthly high of $6.453 and average $6.074 (below the June peak). 7. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | UP | DATED] Citi turned bullish June 1, 2026, forecasting copper at $14,500/t in July and $15,000/t within a year. 8. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] 52-week copper futures range spans $4.33 to $6.72, below the $7.20 threshold. 9. [sq4 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Fed funds rate at 3.63% (flat YoY); markets price ~50% chance of a September rate hike after soft June jobs data. 10. [sq4 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 85 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Trade-weighted US dollar index at 120.69, up +1.43 YoY (dollar somewhat stronger). 11. [sq4 | web_search | WEAK cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Chinese funds rotated into metal stocks and futures ahead of solid first-half producer earnings. 12. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Copper futures rose +23.54% over the trailing 12 months, indicating a sustained elevated regime. ## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?" → Yes: 0.10, Volume: $980.0K - "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.12, Volume: $2.4M Information gaps: - No mine supply/disruption news for July-August 2026 - No US tariff developments affecting copper - No August-specific analyst high-price consensus beyond LongForecast - Base rate for month-over-month copper high volatility not surfaced Key uncertainties: - Whether September Fed rate decision moves the dollar before August - Direction of Chinese industrial demand in H2 2026 - Whether the June $6.65 peak was a local top or a base - Potential tariff or supply shock triggering a spike above $7.20
You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.
## Question
What will be the highest price of copper futures in August 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
Copper is a globally traded industrial metal and is widely utilized in major industrial sectors. In 2026, ["copper prices remain elevated compared with historical averages"](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/copper-outlook) but are affected by many factors including:
* Mine supply and disruptions
* Industrial demand, such as for renewable energy and power grid systems, and electric vehicles
* Economic conditions such as the strength of the US dollar and US tariff uncertainties
* Investor expectations and speculation. 
"A copper futures contract is an agreement between buyers and sellers to trade copper at a predetermined price on a specified future date. … [Copper futures trading is considered more advanced](https://www.bajajfinserv.in/what-is-copper-futures), as it requires continuous monitoring and active position management."
The highest [price of copper (HG\=F)](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/HG%3DF/history/?err=1) on January 2, 2026 was \$5.655. Since then the highest price has been \$6.653, which was reached on June 2, 2026.
`{"format": "metac_reveal_and_close_in_period", "info": {"post_id": 43483, "question_id": 43492}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve as the highest price of copper (HG\=F) in USD per lb displayed by [Yahoo Finance](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/HG%3DF/history/) for any day in August 2026.
## Fine Print
Specifically, the highest value shown in the "High" column will be used to resolve this question. For example, on June 26, 2026, the value shown was \$6.141.
***
This question's information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/43483) which opened on 2026-07-06 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.
## Range
The answer must be a number in [5.6, 6.8] (units: USD per lb).
## Sub-question decomposition (planner)
- (w=0.35) Will the highest copper (HG=F) price in August 2026 exceed $6.00/lb? — Establishes the baseline given prices reached $6.653 in June 2026; a level below $6 would imply meaningful decline from
- (w=0.35) Will the highest copper (HG=F) price in August 2026 exceed $6.65/lb (near/above the June 2026 peak)? — Tests whether copper breaks to new highs, driven by supply disruptions and strong industrial/energy transition demand.
- (w=0.15) Will the highest copper (HG=F) price in August 2026 exceed $7.20/lb (a sharp upside spike)? — Captures tail upside from tariff shocks, mine disruptions, or speculative surges.
- (w=0.15) Will macro conditions (weaker US dollar / stable-to-lower rates) support elevated copper prices through August 2026? — Dollar strength and rate expectations are key drivers of copper pricing and inform the directional bias.
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo simulation estimates P(August high > $6.00) = 0.825, with median high $6.58.
2. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo simulation estimates P(August high > $6.65) = 0.461.
3. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo simulation estimates P(August high > $7.20) = 0.185; 90th percentile is $7.48.
4. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 75 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Copper futures traded around $6.21/lb in early July 2026, with a daily range of $6.19-$6.28.
5. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 78 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Over June 3-July 3, 2026 copper hit a high of $6.684 and low of $5.924, averaging $6.306.
6. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 40 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] LongForecast projects August 2026 monthly high of $6.453 and average $6.074 (below the June peak).
7. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | UP | DATED] Citi turned bullish June 1, 2026, forecasting copper at $14,500/t in July and $15,000/t within a year.
8. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] 52-week copper futures range spans $4.33 to $6.72, below the $7.20 threshold.
9. [sq4 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Fed funds rate at 3.63% (flat YoY); markets price ~50% chance of a September rate hike after soft June jobs data.
10. [sq4 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 85 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Trade-weighted US dollar index at 120.69, up +1.43 YoY (dollar somewhat stronger).
11. [sq4 | web_search | WEAK cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Chinese funds rotated into metal stocks and futures ahead of solid first-half producer earnings.
12. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Copper futures rose +23.54% over the trailing 12 months, indicating a sustained elevated regime.
## Cross-Market Signals
### Polymarket
- "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?" → Yes: 0.10, Volume: $980.0K
- "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.12, Volume: $2.4M
Information gaps:
- No mine supply/disruption news for July-August 2026
- No US tariff developments affecting copper
- No August-specific analyst high-price consensus beyond LongForecast
- Base rate for month-over-month copper high volatility not surfaced
Key uncertainties:
- Whether September Fed rate decision moves the dollar before August
- Direction of Chinese industrial demand in H2 2026
- Whether the June $6.65 peak was a local top or a base
- Potential tariff or supply shock triggering a spike above $7.20
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).
(c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.
(d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.
(e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).
(f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).
## Calibration guidance
- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.
- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.
- Don't pile mass at one value — if you're tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.
- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen — don't override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution — 6-10 sentences total>",
"p10": <number>,
"p25": <number>,
"p50": <number>,
"p75": <number>,
"p90": <number>
}
Percentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 <= p25 <= p50 <= p75 <= p90).
{
"forecast": {
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo simulation estimates P(August high \u003e $6.00) = 0.825, with median high $6.58.\n2. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo simulation estimates P(August high \u003e $6.65) = 0.461.\n3. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo simulation estimates P(August high \u003e $7.20) = 0.185; 90th percentile is $7.48.\n4. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 75 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Copper futures traded around $6.21/lb in early July 2026, with a daily range of $6.19-$6.28.\n5. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 78 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Over June 3-July 3, 2026 copper hit a high of $6.684 and low of $5.924, averaging $6.306.\n6. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 40 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] LongForecast projects August 2026 monthly high of $6.453 and average $6.074 (below the June peak).\n7. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | UP | DATED] Citi turned bullish June 1, 2026, forecasting copper at $14,500/t in July and $15,000/t within a year.\n8. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] 52-week copper futures range spans $4.33 to $6.72, below the $7.20 threshold.\n9. [sq4 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Fed funds rate at 3.63% (flat YoY); markets price ~50% chance of a September rate hike after soft June jobs data.\n10. [sq4 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 85 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Trade-weighted US dollar index at 120.69, up +1.43 YoY (dollar somewhat stronger).\n11. [sq4 | web_search | WEAK cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Chinese funds rotated into metal stocks and futures ahead of solid first-half producer earnings.\n12. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Copper futures rose +23.54% over the trailing 12 months, indicating a sustained elevated regime.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.10, Volume: $980.0K\n- \"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.12, Volume: $2.4M\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No mine supply/disruption news for July-August 2026\n - No US tariff developments affecting copper\n - No August-specific analyst high-price consensus beyond LongForecast\n - Base rate for month-over-month copper high volatility not surfaced\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether September Fed rate decision moves the dollar before August\n - Direction of Chinese industrial demand in H2 2026\n - Whether the June $6.65 peak was a local top or a base\n - Potential tariff or supply shock triggering a spike above $7.20",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.\n\n## Question\nWhat will be the highest price of copper futures in August 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nCopper is a globally traded industrial metal and is widely utilized in major industrial sectors. In 2026, [\"copper prices remain elevated compared with historical averages\"](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/copper-outlook) but are affected by many factors including:\n\n* Mine supply and disruptions\n* Industrial demand, such as for renewable energy and power grid systems, and electric vehicles\n* Economic conditions such as the strength of the US dollar and US tariff uncertainties\n* Investor expectations and speculation.\u0026#x20;\n\n\"A copper futures contract is an agreement between buyers and sellers to trade copper at a predetermined price on a specified future date. \u2026 [Copper futures trading is considered more advanced](https://www.bajajfinserv.in/what-is-copper-futures), as it requires continuous monitoring and active position management.\"\n\nThe highest [price of copper (HG\\=F)](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/HG%3DF/history/?err=1) on January 2, 2026 was \\$5.655. Since then the highest price has been \\$6.653, which was reached on June 2, 2026.\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 43483, \"question_id\": 43492}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question will resolve as the highest price of copper (HG\\=F) in USD per lb displayed by [Yahoo Finance](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/HG%3DF/history/) for any day in August 2026.\n\n## Fine Print\nSpecifically, the highest value shown in the \"High\" column will be used to resolve this question. For example, on June 26, 2026, the value shown was \\$6.141.\n\n***\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/43483) which opened on 2026-07-06 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.\n\n## Range\nThe answer must be a number in [5.6, 6.8] (units: USD per lb).\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n- (w=0.35) Will the highest copper (HG=F) price in August 2026 exceed $6.00/lb? \u2014 Establishes the baseline given prices reached $6.653 in June 2026; a level below $6 would imply meaningful decline from \n- (w=0.35) Will the highest copper (HG=F) price in August 2026 exceed $6.65/lb (near/above the June 2026 peak)? \u2014 Tests whether copper breaks to new highs, driven by supply disruptions and strong industrial/energy transition demand.\n- (w=0.15) Will the highest copper (HG=F) price in August 2026 exceed $7.20/lb (a sharp upside spike)? \u2014 Captures tail upside from tariff shocks, mine disruptions, or speculative surges.\n- (w=0.15) Will macro conditions (weaker US dollar / stable-to-lower rates) support elevated copper prices through August 2026? \u2014 Dollar strength and rate expectations are key drivers of copper pricing and inform the directional bias.\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo simulation estimates P(August high \u003e $6.00) = 0.825, with median high $6.58.\n2. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo simulation estimates P(August high \u003e $6.65) = 0.461.\n3. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo simulation estimates P(August high \u003e $7.20) = 0.185; 90th percentile is $7.48.\n4. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 75 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Copper futures traded around $6.21/lb in early July 2026, with a daily range of $6.19-$6.28.\n5. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 78 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Over June 3-July 3, 2026 copper hit a high of $6.684 and low of $5.924, averaging $6.306.\n6. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 40 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] LongForecast projects August 2026 monthly high of $6.453 and average $6.074 (below the June peak).\n7. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | UP | DATED] Citi turned bullish June 1, 2026, forecasting copper at $14,500/t in July and $15,000/t within a year.\n8. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] 52-week copper futures range spans $4.33 to $6.72, below the $7.20 threshold.\n9. [sq4 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Fed funds rate at 3.63% (flat YoY); markets price ~50% chance of a September rate hike after soft June jobs data.\n10. [sq4 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 85 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Trade-weighted US dollar index at 120.69, up +1.43 YoY (dollar somewhat stronger).\n11. [sq4 | web_search | WEAK cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Chinese funds rotated into metal stocks and futures ahead of solid first-half producer earnings.\n12. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Copper futures rose +23.54% over the trailing 12 months, indicating a sustained elevated regime.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.10, Volume: $980.0K\n- \"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.12, Volume: $2.4M\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No mine supply/disruption news for July-August 2026\n - No US tariff developments affecting copper\n - No August-specific analyst high-price consensus beyond LongForecast\n - Base rate for month-over-month copper high volatility not surfaced\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether September Fed rate decision moves the dollar before August\n - Direction of Chinese industrial demand in H2 2026\n - Whether the June $6.65 peak was a local top or a base\n - Potential tariff or supply shock triggering a spike above $7.20\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).\n (c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.\n (d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.\n (e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).\n (f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.\n- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.\n- Don\u0027t pile mass at one value \u2014 if you\u0027re tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.\n- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen \u2014 don\u0027t override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution \u2014 6-10 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"p10\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p25\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p50\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p75\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p90\": \u003cnumber\u003e\n}\n\nPercentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 \u003c= p25 \u003c= p50 \u003c= p75 \u003c= p90).\n",
"models": [
"opus"
],
"p50": 6.53,
"percentiles": {
"0.1": 6.12,
"0.25": 6.36,
"0.5": 6.53,
"0.75": 6.67,
"0.9": 6.79
},
"rationale": "(a) Question resolves at end of August 2026, ~2 months out from early-July data. (b) Status quo: spot ~$6.21/lb in early July; a monthly HIGH is typically above spot, and recent months (June/July) printed highs near $6.65-6.68, so status quo implies an August high in the mid-$6.5s. (c) Trend: copper is up +23.5% YoY in a sustained elevated regime, with Chinese demand rotation supportive, suggesting flat-to-higher highs. (d) Experts/models diverge: Monte Carlo median $6.58 with P(\u003e6.65)=0.46, LongForecast a more bearish $6.453 August high, Citi bullish; blend points to roughly $6.5. (e) Low scenario (~p10): a stronger dollar (index already +1.43 YoY), a hawkish Fed, and softening industrial demand pull copper back toward $6.0-6.1, capping the monthly high near $6.10. (f) High scenario (~p90): a supply disruption or tariff shock pushes copper to new highs, but the answer is capped at $6.8, so mass piles near the ceiling. Given elevated prices and the tight upper cap, I center the median at ~$6.53 with a wide lower tail and compressed upper tail against the $6.8 boundary."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "economics",
"n_sub_qs": 4,
"n_tools": 4,
"reasoning_approach": "Each sub-question defines a threshold on the August 2026 monthly high; probabilities across thresholds and the macro-support factor are blended via weighted average, calibrated primarily by the Monte Carlo distribution anchored to the current price regime and adjusted for macro and news signals.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will the highest copper (HG=F) price in August 2026 exceed $6.00/lb?",
"rationale": "Establishes the baseline given prices reached $6.653 in June 2026; a level below $6 would imply meaningful decline from current elevated regime.",
"weight": 0.35
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will the highest copper (HG=F) price in August 2026 exceed $6.65/lb (near/above the June 2026 peak)?",
"rationale": "Tests whether copper breaks to new highs, driven by supply disruptions and strong industrial/energy transition demand.",
"weight": 0.35
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will the highest copper (HG=F) price in August 2026 exceed $7.20/lb (a sharp upside spike)?",
"rationale": "Captures tail upside from tariff shocks, mine disruptions, or speculative surges.",
"weight": 0.15
},
{
"id": "sq4",
"question": "Will macro conditions (weaker US dollar / stable-to-lower rates) support elevated copper prices through August 2026?",
"rationale": "Dollar strength and rate expectations are key drivers of copper pricing and inform the directional bias.",
"weight": 0.15
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\n# Model August 2026 monthly high of copper futures from recent regime\n# Recent anchors: Jan 2 2026 high ~5.655, June 2 2026 high ~6.653\n# Assume current spot region ~6.1-6.6 range as of early July 2026\n# Monthly high tends to sit above month-average; estimate distribution\nnp.random.seed(42)\n# Assume July starting level ~6.3, monthly log-vol ~6-8% for copper\nstart = 6.3\nmonthly_vol = 0.07\n# drift slightly positive given elevated regime narrative\ndrift = 0.005\nsims = 200000\n# simulate end-of-August level then add intramonth high premium\nlog_ret = np.random.normal(drift, monthly_vol*np.sqrt(2), sims) # ~2 months to end Aug\naug_level = start*np.exp(log_ret)\n# monthly high premium above average level ~ 3-5%\nhigh_premium = np.random.uniform(0.02, 0.06, sims)\naug_high = aug_level*(1+high_premium)\nfor thr in [6.0, 6.65, 7.2]:\n print(f\u0027P(high \u003e {thr}) = {np.mean(aug_high\u003ethr):.3f}\u0027)\nprint(\u0027median high:\u0027, np.percentile(aug_high,50))\nprint(\u002710/90 pct:\u0027, np.percentile(aug_high,10), np.percentile(aug_high,90))",
"description": "Monte Carlo simulation of August 2026 copper futures monthly high based on recent price regime and volatility"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_months": 12,
"search_text": "copper price",
"series_ids": [
"DTWEXBGS",
"DFF",
"T10Y2Y"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq4",
"sq1",
"sq2"
],
"tool_name": "fred_data"
},
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find the latest copper futures (HG=F) spot price as of early-mid July 2026, plus analyst outlooks, supply disruption news, tariff developments, and demand forecasts affecting copper prices for August 2026.",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "What will be the highest price of copper futures in August 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"copper futures HG=F price July 2026",
"copper price forecast August 2026",
"copper market supply disruption tariff 2026"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-07-08T17:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nCopper is a globally traded industrial metal and is widely utilized in major industrial sectors. In 2026, [\"copper prices remain elevated compared with historical averages\"](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/copper-outlook) but are affected by many factors including:\n\n* Mine supply and disruptions\n* Industrial demand, such as for renewable energy and power grid systems, and electric vehicles\n* Economic conditions such as the strength of the US dollar and US tariff uncertainties\n* Investor expectations and speculation.\u0026#x20;\n\n\"A copper futures contract is an agreement between buyers and sellers to trade copper at a predetermined price on a specified future date. \u2026 [Copper futures trading is considered more advanced](https://www.bajajfinserv.in/what-is-copper-futures), as it requires continuous monitoring and active position management.\"\n\nThe highest [price of copper (HG\\=F)](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/HG%3DF/history/?err=1) on January 2, 2026 was \\$5.655. Since then the highest price has been \\$6.653, which was reached on June 2, 2026.\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 43483, \"question_id\": 43492}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question will resolve as the highest price of copper (HG\\=F) in USD per lb displayed by [Yahoo Finance](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/HG%3DF/history/) for any day in August 2026.\n\n## Fine Print\nSpecifically, the highest value shown in the \"High\" column will be used to resolve this question. For example, on June 26, 2026, the value shown was \\$6.141.\n\n***\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/43483) which opened on 2026-07-06 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.",
"open_lower": true,
"open_upper": true,
"q_max": 6.8,
"q_min": 5.6,
"question_type": "numeric",
"title": "What will be the highest price of copper futures in August 2026?",
"units": "USD per lb"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.10, Volume: $980.0K\n- \"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.12, Volume: $2.4M",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 4,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 0.14,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Monte Carlo simulation of August 2026 copper futures monthly",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 3.04,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "7 series",
"tool_name": "fred_data"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 39.15,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "20 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 86.83,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "0 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "Monte Carlo simulation estimates P(August high \u003e $6.00) = 0.825, with median high $6.58.",
"credibility": 45,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Monte Carlo simulation estimates P(August high \u003e $6.65) = 0.461.",
"credibility": 45,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Monte Carlo simulation estimates P(August high \u003e $7.20) = 0.185; 90th percentile is $7.48.",
"credibility": 45,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Copper futures traded around $6.21/lb in early July 2026, with a daily range of $6.19-$6.28.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Over June 3-July 3, 2026 copper hit a high of $6.684 and low of $5.924, averaging $6.306.",
"credibility": 78,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "LongForecast projects August 2026 monthly high of $6.453 and average $6.074 (below the June peak).",
"credibility": 40,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Citi turned bullish June 1, 2026, forecasting copper at $14,500/t in July and $15,000/t within a year.",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "52-week copper futures range spans $4.33 to $6.72, below the $7.20 threshold.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Fed funds rate at 3.63% (flat YoY); markets price ~50% chance of a September rate hike after soft June jobs data.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "fred_data",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "Trade-weighted US dollar index at 120.69, up +1.43 YoY (dollar somewhat stronger).",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "fred_data",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "Chinese funds rotated into metal stocks and futures ahead of solid first-half producer earnings.",
"credibility": 55,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "Copper futures rose +23.54% over the trailing 12 months, indicating a sustained elevated regime.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No mine supply/disruption news for July-August 2026",
"No US tariff developments affecting copper",
"No August-specific analyst high-price consensus beyond LongForecast",
"Base rate for month-over-month copper high volatility not surfaced"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether September Fed rate decision moves the dollar before August",
"Direction of Chinese industrial demand in H2 2026",
"Whether the June $6.65 peak was a local top or a base",
"Potential tariff or supply shock triggering a spike above $7.20"
],
"n_evidence": 12
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 19.47,
"plan": 21.47,
"research": 86.86,
"synthesis": 19.79
}
}