Estimate the probability of each pathway to a second case (in-country secondary transmission, second independent import) conditioned on outbreak severity, anchored by the historical base rate of multi-case imports into high-income countries, then blend these correlated contributing factors via weighted average.
## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" → Yes: 0.33, Volume: $101.1M - "Will France win on 2026-07-09?" → Yes: 0.61, Volume: $2.0M
1. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] France's index case is a doctor who tested positive after an aid mission; no ECDC-confirmed secondary transmission within France reported. 2. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 65 | DOWN | DATED] High-income countries with Ebola cases typically isolate patients rapidly, limiting secondary transmission risk. 3. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | RECENT] An American aid worker was infected with Ebola in DRC and flown to Germany for treatment, showing importation into wealthy countries is occurring. 4. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | RECENT] US invoked Title 42 travel restrictions and issued advisories against travel to DRC, Uganda, Rwanda, South Sudan, reducing outbound aid-worker exposure. 5. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Public health officials are monitoring for cases worldwide, including at major events like the World Cup. 6. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | DATED] WHO declared the DRC/Uganda outbreak a public health emergency of international concern on May 16, 2026. 7. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 80 | UP | RECENT] Suspected cases surged to nearly 1,000 in DRC by late May with 148+ deaths; described as third-largest Ebola outbreak on record. 8. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | UP | RECENT] Outbreak involves rare Bundibugyo strain with no approved vaccine or treatment, making containment difficult. 9. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 65 | UP | RECENT] US funding cuts and USAID dismantling reportedly hampered outbreak response, per aid workers. 10. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | RECENT] Officials characterize the global spread risk as low while national/regional risk is high; latest data cuts off early July 2026. 11. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Uganda confirmed multiple imported cases, and both US and Germany handled imported/exported infections during this outbreak. ## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" → Yes: 0.33, Volume: $101.1M - "Will France win on 2026-07-09?" → Yes: 0.61, Volume: $2.0M Information gaps: - No direct ECDC data on France case count after June 24, 2026 - No historical base rate on how often high-income imports produced >1 confirmed case - No outbreak trajectory data for July-August 2026 (containment vs growth) - Number of contacts/exposed persons around the French index doctor unknown Key uncertainties: - Whether outbreak remains large enough through August to drive new imports - Effectiveness of French isolation/contact-tracing on index case - Whether more European aid workers get infected and repatriated to France - How ECDC classifies repatriated/imported vs domestic cases
You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates — your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.
## Question
Will France have more than one confirmed case of Ebola on September 1, 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
Metro UK: [Ebola detected in France after doctor tests positive following aid mission](https://metro.co.uk/2026/06/24/france-reports-first-ebola-case-world-health-organisation-declares-emergency-28904557/)
`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "d7425b5b4344ac93", "sheet_id": "90"}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as **Yes** if before September 1, 2026, France has more than 1 confirmed case of Ebola in the 2026 outbreak, according to the [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/ebola-outbreak-democratic-republic-congo-and-uganda) (ECDC).
## Fine Print
In order to streamline resolution, only reporting from the ECDC will be used for resolution.
## Sub-question decomposition
- (w=0.40) Will the ECDC confirm secondary transmission (a second linked case) of Ebola within France from the index doctor before September 1, 2026? — The most likely path to >1 case is onward transmission from the imported index case; developed-country Ebola imports his
- (w=0.25) Will France experience a second independent imported Ebola case (another traveler/aid worker) before September 1, 2026? — A second case could arise from a separate importation given ongoing DRC/Uganda outbreak and aid missions, independent of
- (w=0.20) Will the underlying 2026 DRC/Uganda Ebola outbreak remain active and large enough through August 2026 to sustain importation/transmission risk into France? — Overall risk to France scales with the size and duration of the source outbreak; a fading outbreak lowers all case-count
- (w=0.15) Do historical precedents of Ebola importation into high-income countries show more than one confirmed case occurring in that country? — Base rate anchor: past imports to US/Spain/UK/Italy rarely exceeded one case; establishes the prior.
Combination rule: **weighted_average**
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] France's index case is a doctor who tested positive after an aid mission; no ECDC-confirmed secondary transmission within France reported.
2. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 65 | DOWN | DATED] High-income countries with Ebola cases typically isolate patients rapidly, limiting secondary transmission risk.
3. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | RECENT] An American aid worker was infected with Ebola in DRC and flown to Germany for treatment, showing importation into wealthy countries is occurring.
4. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | RECENT] US invoked Title 42 travel restrictions and issued advisories against travel to DRC, Uganda, Rwanda, South Sudan, reducing outbound aid-worker exposure.
5. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Public health officials are monitoring for cases worldwide, including at major events like the World Cup.
6. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | DATED] WHO declared the DRC/Uganda outbreak a public health emergency of international concern on May 16, 2026.
7. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 80 | UP | RECENT] Suspected cases surged to nearly 1,000 in DRC by late May with 148+ deaths; described as third-largest Ebola outbreak on record.
8. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | UP | RECENT] Outbreak involves rare Bundibugyo strain with no approved vaccine or treatment, making containment difficult.
9. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 65 | UP | RECENT] US funding cuts and USAID dismantling reportedly hampered outbreak response, per aid workers.
10. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | RECENT] Officials characterize the global spread risk as low while national/regional risk is high; latest data cuts off early July 2026.
11. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Uganda confirmed multiple imported cases, and both US and Germany handled imported/exported infections during this outbreak.
## Cross-Market Signals
### Polymarket
- "Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" → Yes: 0.33, Volume: $101.1M
- "Will France win on 2026-07-09?" → Yes: 0.61, Volume: $2.0M
Information gaps:
- No direct ECDC data on France case count after June 24, 2026
- No historical base rate on how often high-income imports produced >1 confirmed case
- No outbreak trajectory data for July-August 2026 (containment vs growth)
- Number of contacts/exposed persons around the French index doctor unknown
Key uncertainties:
- Whether outbreak remains large enough through August to drive new imports
- Effectiveness of French isolation/contact-tracing on index case
- Whether more European aid workers get infected and repatriated to France
- How ECDC classifies repatriated/imported vs domestic cases
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The status quo outcome — what happens if nothing changes from today.
(c) A brief scenario that results in NO.
(d) A brief scenario that results in YES.
## Calibration guidance
- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition — independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.
- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.
- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid >0.97 or <0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological — overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question — move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.
- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or "very recent" claim — especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility — must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.
- **Also provide a holistic estimate** — your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) (d) above — 5-8 sentences total>",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq2": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq3": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq4": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>
},
"holistic_p_yes": <float in [0.01, 0.99] — your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition>,
"what_would_change_my_mind": "<1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%>"
}
{
"forecast": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] France\u0027s index case is a doctor who tested positive after an aid mission; no ECDC-confirmed secondary transmission within France reported.\n2. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 65 | DOWN | DATED] High-income countries with Ebola cases typically isolate patients rapidly, limiting secondary transmission risk.\n3. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | RECENT] An American aid worker was infected with Ebola in DRC and flown to Germany for treatment, showing importation into wealthy countries is occurring.\n4. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | RECENT] US invoked Title 42 travel restrictions and issued advisories against travel to DRC, Uganda, Rwanda, South Sudan, reducing outbound aid-worker exposure.\n5. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Public health officials are monitoring for cases worldwide, including at major events like the World Cup.\n6. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | DATED] WHO declared the DRC/Uganda outbreak a public health emergency of international concern on May 16, 2026.\n7. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 80 | UP | RECENT] Suspected cases surged to nearly 1,000 in DRC by late May with 148+ deaths; described as third-largest Ebola outbreak on record.\n8. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | UP | RECENT] Outbreak involves rare Bundibugyo strain with no approved vaccine or treatment, making containment difficult.\n9. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 65 | UP | RECENT] US funding cuts and USAID dismantling reportedly hampered outbreak response, per aid workers.\n10. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | RECENT] Officials characterize the global spread risk as low while national/regional risk is high; latest data cuts off early July 2026.\n11. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Uganda confirmed multiple imported cases, and both US and Germany handled imported/exported infections during this outbreak.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.33, Volume: $101.1M\n- \"Will France win on 2026-07-09?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.61, Volume: $2.0M\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No direct ECDC data on France case count after June 24, 2026\n - No historical base rate on how often high-income imports produced \u003e1 confirmed case\n - No outbreak trajectory data for July-August 2026 (containment vs growth)\n - Number of contacts/exposed persons around the French index doctor unknown\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether outbreak remains large enough through August to drive new imports\n - Effectiveness of French isolation/contact-tracing on index case\n - Whether more European aid workers get infected and repatriated to France\n - How ECDC classifies repatriated/imported vs domestic cases",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates \u2014 your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.\n\n## Question\nWill France have more than one confirmed case of Ebola on September 1, 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nMetro UK: [Ebola detected in France after doctor tests positive following aid mission](https://metro.co.uk/2026/06/24/france-reports-first-ebola-case-world-health-organisation-declares-emergency-28904557/)\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"d7425b5b4344ac93\", \"sheet_id\": \"90\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if before September 1, 2026, France has more than 1 confirmed case of Ebola in the 2026 outbreak, according to the [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/ebola-outbreak-democratic-republic-congo-and-uganda) (ECDC).\n\n## Fine Print\nIn order to streamline resolution, only reporting from the ECDC will be used for resolution.\n\n## Sub-question decomposition\n- (w=0.40) Will the ECDC confirm secondary transmission (a second linked case) of Ebola within France from the index doctor before September 1, 2026? \u2014 The most likely path to \u003e1 case is onward transmission from the imported index case; developed-country Ebola imports his\n- (w=0.25) Will France experience a second independent imported Ebola case (another traveler/aid worker) before September 1, 2026? \u2014 A second case could arise from a separate importation given ongoing DRC/Uganda outbreak and aid missions, independent of\n- (w=0.20) Will the underlying 2026 DRC/Uganda Ebola outbreak remain active and large enough through August 2026 to sustain importation/transmission risk into France? \u2014 Overall risk to France scales with the size and duration of the source outbreak; a fading outbreak lowers all case-count\n- (w=0.15) Do historical precedents of Ebola importation into high-income countries show more than one confirmed case occurring in that country? \u2014 Base rate anchor: past imports to US/Spain/UK/Italy rarely exceeded one case; establishes the prior.\n\nCombination rule: **weighted_average**\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] France\u0027s index case is a doctor who tested positive after an aid mission; no ECDC-confirmed secondary transmission within France reported.\n2. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 65 | DOWN | DATED] High-income countries with Ebola cases typically isolate patients rapidly, limiting secondary transmission risk.\n3. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | RECENT] An American aid worker was infected with Ebola in DRC and flown to Germany for treatment, showing importation into wealthy countries is occurring.\n4. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | RECENT] US invoked Title 42 travel restrictions and issued advisories against travel to DRC, Uganda, Rwanda, South Sudan, reducing outbound aid-worker exposure.\n5. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Public health officials are monitoring for cases worldwide, including at major events like the World Cup.\n6. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | DATED] WHO declared the DRC/Uganda outbreak a public health emergency of international concern on May 16, 2026.\n7. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 80 | UP | RECENT] Suspected cases surged to nearly 1,000 in DRC by late May with 148+ deaths; described as third-largest Ebola outbreak on record.\n8. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | UP | RECENT] Outbreak involves rare Bundibugyo strain with no approved vaccine or treatment, making containment difficult.\n9. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 65 | UP | RECENT] US funding cuts and USAID dismantling reportedly hampered outbreak response, per aid workers.\n10. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | RECENT] Officials characterize the global spread risk as low while national/regional risk is high; latest data cuts off early July 2026.\n11. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Uganda confirmed multiple imported cases, and both US and Germany handled imported/exported infections during this outbreak.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.33, Volume: $101.1M\n- \"Will France win on 2026-07-09?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.61, Volume: $2.0M\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No direct ECDC data on France case count after June 24, 2026\n - No historical base rate on how often high-income imports produced \u003e1 confirmed case\n - No outbreak trajectory data for July-August 2026 (containment vs growth)\n - Number of contacts/exposed persons around the French index doctor unknown\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether outbreak remains large enough through August to drive new imports\n - Effectiveness of French isolation/contact-tracing on index case\n - Whether more European aid workers get infected and repatriated to France\n - How ECDC classifies repatriated/imported vs domestic cases\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The status quo outcome \u2014 what happens if nothing changes from today.\n (c) A brief scenario that results in NO.\n (d) A brief scenario that results in YES.\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition \u2014 independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.\n- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.\n- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid \u003e0.97 or \u003c0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological \u2014 overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.\n- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question \u2014 move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.\n- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or \"very recent\" claim \u2014 especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility \u2014 must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.\n- **Also provide a holistic estimate** \u2014 your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) (b) (c) (d) above \u2014 5-8 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"sub_question_estimates\": {\n \"sq1\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq2\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq3\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq4\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e\n },\n \"holistic_p_yes\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99] \u2014 your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition\u003e,\n \"what_would_change_my_mind\": \"\u003c1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%\u003e\"\n}\n",
"holistic_p_yes": 0.22,
"models": [
"opus"
],
"p_yes": 0.28300000000000003,
"rationale": "(a) About two months remain between the June 24, 2026 index case and the Sep 1 resolution. (b) Status quo: a single imported doctor rapidly isolated in a high-income health system with strong contact tracing, yielding exactly one confirmed case and a NO resolution. (c) NO scenario: France isolates the index doctor, no contacts become infected, and no additional aid workers are repatriated to France before September \u2014 the most likely outcome. (d) YES scenario: either a healthcare worker/contact contracts the virus (as happened in Dallas and Madrid) or a second independent aid worker is imported given the very large, still-active DRC/Uganda outbreak with a strain lacking approved vaccine/treatment. The underlying outbreak is clearly large and sustained, which keeps importation risk elevated, but developed-country experience shows secondary transmission is usually contained. Overall the base rate and rapid-isolation evidence favor NO.",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": 0.15,
"sq2": 0.14,
"sq3": 0.85,
"sq4": 0.4
},
"what_would_change_my_mind": "Reports of an infected French contact/healthcare worker or a second repatriated aid worker would push me above 70%; confirmation that the index case\u0027s contacts cleared their monitoring period with no transmission plus a rapidly shrinking source outbreak would push me below 15%."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "health",
"n_sub_qs": 4,
"n_tools": 4,
"reasoning_approach": "Estimate the probability of each pathway to a second case (in-country secondary transmission, second independent import) conditioned on outbreak severity, anchored by the historical base rate of multi-case imports into high-income countries, then blend these correlated contributing factors via weighted average.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will the ECDC confirm secondary transmission (a second linked case) of Ebola within France from the index doctor before September 1, 2026?",
"rationale": "The most likely path to \u003e1 case is onward transmission from the imported index case; developed-country Ebola imports historically produce few or zero secondary cases due to strong isolation/PPE protocols.",
"weight": 0.4
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will France experience a second independent imported Ebola case (another traveler/aid worker) before September 1, 2026?",
"rationale": "A second case could arise from a separate importation given ongoing DRC/Uganda outbreak and aid missions, independent of the index case.",
"weight": 0.25
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will the underlying 2026 DRC/Uganda Ebola outbreak remain active and large enough through August 2026 to sustain importation/transmission risk into France?",
"rationale": "Overall risk to France scales with the size and duration of the source outbreak; a fading outbreak lowers all case-count scenarios.",
"weight": 0.2
},
{
"id": "sq4",
"question": "Do historical precedents of Ebola importation into high-income countries show more than one confirmed case occurring in that country?",
"rationale": "Base rate anchor: past imports to US/Spain/UK/Italy rarely exceeded one case; establishes the prior.",
"weight": 0.15
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Current status of the 2026 Ebola case in France reported after a doctor returned from an aid mission. Find ECDC and WHO reporting on whether France has one or more than one confirmed Ebola case, any secondary transmission, contact tracing outcomes, and the doctor\u0027s condition.",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "Will France have more than one confirmed case of Ebola on September 1, 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_days": 90,
"queries": [
"France Ebola second case ECDC 2026",
"France Ebola doctor contact tracing secondary transmission",
"Ebola case France September 2026 update"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2"
],
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_days": 90,
"queries": [
"2026 Ebola outbreak DRC Congo cases WHO",
"Uganda Ebola outbreak 2026 status",
"Ebola outbreak size 2026 ECDC risk assessment"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"Ebola cases imported to Western countries",
"2014 Ebola virus cases in the United States",
"Ebola in Spain 2014",
"Ebola cases in the United Kingdom"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "wikipedia_lookup"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-07-08T12:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nMetro UK: [Ebola detected in France after doctor tests positive following aid mission](https://metro.co.uk/2026/06/24/france-reports-first-ebola-case-world-health-organisation-declares-emergency-28904557/)\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"d7425b5b4344ac93\", \"sheet_id\": \"90\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if before September 1, 2026, France has more than 1 confirmed case of Ebola in the 2026 outbreak, according to the [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/ebola-outbreak-democratic-republic-congo-and-uganda) (ECDC).\n\n## Fine Print\nIn order to streamline resolution, only reporting from the ECDC will be used for resolution.",
"question_type": "binary",
"title": "Will France have more than one confirmed case of Ebola on September 1, 2026?"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.33, Volume: $101.1M\n- \"Will France win on 2026-07-09?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.61, Volume: $2.0M",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 3,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 30.84,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "15 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.71,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "15 articles",
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 1.49,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "3 pages",
"tool_name": "wikipedia_lookup"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "France\u0027s index case is a doctor who tested positive after an aid mission; no ECDC-confirmed secondary transmission within France reported.",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "High-income countries with Ebola cases typically isolate patients rapidly, limiting secondary transmission risk.",
"credibility": 65,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "An American aid worker was infected with Ebola in DRC and flown to Germany for treatment, showing importation into wealthy countries is occurring.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "US invoked Title 42 travel restrictions and issued advisories against travel to DRC, Uganda, Rwanda, South Sudan, reducing outbound aid-worker exposure.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Public health officials are monitoring for cases worldwide, including at major events like the World Cup.",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "WHO declared the DRC/Uganda outbreak a public health emergency of international concern on May 16, 2026.",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Suspected cases surged to nearly 1,000 in DRC by late May with 148+ deaths; described as third-largest Ebola outbreak on record.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Outbreak involves rare Bundibugyo strain with no approved vaccine or treatment, making containment difficult.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "US funding cuts and USAID dismantling reportedly hampered outbreak response, per aid workers.",
"credibility": 65,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Officials characterize the global spread risk as low while national/regional risk is high; latest data cuts off early July 2026.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Uganda confirmed multiple imported cases, and both US and Germany handled imported/exported infections during this outbreak.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No direct ECDC data on France case count after June 24, 2026",
"No historical base rate on how often high-income imports produced \u003e1 confirmed case",
"No outbreak trajectory data for July-August 2026 (containment vs growth)",
"Number of contacts/exposed persons around the French index doctor unknown"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether outbreak remains large enough through August to drive new imports",
"Effectiveness of French isolation/contact-tracing on index case",
"Whether more European aid workers get infected and repatriated to France",
"How ECDC classifies repatriated/imported vs domestic cases"
],
"n_evidence": 11
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 20.85,
"plan": 16.02,
"research": 30.84,
"synthesis": 20.7
}
}