Each sub-question captures a correlated driver of the sulfur price level (supply disruption persistence, price trajectory, producer restoration, demand). Their weighted average yields a probability-like tilt that will be mapped onto a numeric distribution anchored on the recent doubled Tampa price, with upside if disruptions persist and downside if supply normalizes.
## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" → Yes: 0.02, Volume: $113.2M - "Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" → Yes: 0.19, Volume: $116.0M - "Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" → Yes: 0.06, Volume: $116.9M - "Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" → Yes: 0.02, Volume: $117.1M - "Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $104.7M - "Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" → Yes: 0.03, Volume: $138.5M - "Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" → Yes: 0.16, Volume: $88.1M - "Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" → Yes: 0.33, Volume: $100.6M - "Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" → Yes: 0.19, Volume: $92.7M - "Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" → Yes: 0.38, Volume: $2.5M
1. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | RECENT] As of June 16 2026, major shipping companies still see Strait of Hormuz transit as 'very risky' despite a US-Iran memorandum of understanding lifting restrictions. 2. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 72 | DOWN | RECENT] A US-Iran MOU to formally lift Strait of Hormuz restrictions was set to be signed June 19 2026 in Switzerland. 3. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | RECENT] May 30 2026 analysis warns Hormuz oil/commodity exports may not return to pre-war normal levels due to ongoing security risk. 4. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 72 | UP | DATED] As of April 23 2026, Middle East producers were still scrambling for alternative export routes almost two months after Hormuz was effectively shut. 5. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | DATED] Repeated April-May reopening assurances from US/Iran were quickly reversed, with Iran stating the strait 'returned to its previous state.' 6. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 68 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Argus projected Q1 2026 Tampa sulfur contract at $475-520/lt delivered, up from $310/lt prior period. 7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | DATED] US Sulphur Price Index rose 47.31% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026, averaging ~$428.67/MT (CFR). 8. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 58 | UP | RECENT] Sulfur futures surged to a record high CNY 7,500/tonne as Middle East conflict disrupted global fertilizer supply chains. 9. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | UP | RECENT] World Bank blog reported sulfur prices doubled since January 2026, driving DAP prices up over 10% in April 2026. 10. [sq2 | web_search | WEAK cred 45 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] IMARC June 2026 reported North America sulphur at ~$290/mt, differing methodology from Tampa contract pricing. 11. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | RECENT] Qatar suspended urea, ammonia and sulfur production and Morocco's OCP accelerated phosphate maintenance following Hormuz disruptions. 12. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 72 | DOWN | DATED] Nearly 60% of US farmers report worsening finances from surging fertilizer costs; some scaling back inputs and reconsidering planting. ## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" → Yes: 0.02, Volume: $113.2M - "Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" → Yes: 0.19, Volume: $116.0M - "Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" → Yes: 0.06, Volume: $116.9M - "Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" → Yes: 0.02, Volume: $117.1M - "Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $104.7M - "Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" → Yes: 0.03, Volume: $138.5M - "Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" → Yes: 0.16, Volume: $88.1M - "Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" → Yes: 0.33, Volume: $100.6M - "Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" → Yes: 0.19, Volume: $92.7M - "Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" → Yes: 0.38, Volume: $2.5M Information gaps: - No direct Argus Tampa liquid sulphur Q3 2026 print (paywalled) - No confirmation whether MOU actually signed and Hormuz reopened by Q3 - No data on Qatar/OCP production restoration timeline into Q3 2026 - Missing historical base rate for how quickly sulfur prices normalize after supply shocks Key uncertainties: - Whether US-Iran deal holds and Hormuz shipping normalizes before Q3 - Speed of Qatari sulfur and OCP phosphate production recovery - Demand destruction from farmers cutting inputs offsetting supply tightness - Exact numeric level Q3 Tampa price resolves to vs doubled May baseline
You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.
## Question
What will be the World Bank monthly price of liquid sulphur (Tampa) for Q3 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
Sulphur is a critical industrial input, particularly for the production of sulfuric acid and phosphate fertilizers such as DAP (diammonium phosphate). According to the World Bank's May 2026 [Data Blog post on fertilizer prices](https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/opendata/fertilizer-prices-surge-as-strait-of-hormuz-disruptions-tighten-), sulfur prices have doubled since January 2026, contributing to a more than 10% rise in DAP prices in April 2026. Additional market reporting is available from [Argus Media](https://www.argusmedia.com/en/commodities/sulphur-and-sulphuric-acid) and the [CRU sulphur market analysis](https://www.crugroup.com/en/commodities/sulphur/).
The latest surge has been driven largely by disruptions linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for Middle East fertilizer and sulfur exports. Qatar, a major sulfur producer, suspended production of urea, ammonia, and sulfur following damage to key facilities, while the Islamic Republic of Iran halted ammonia production amid the conflict. The Strait of Hormuz handles a large share of global sulfur and ammonia shipments, both of which are critical inputs for DAP production, and Morocco's OCP has also accelerated maintenance at its phosphate facilities, likely in response to these disruptions. Broader context on the outlook is available in the World Bank's April 2026 [Commodity Markets Outlook](https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets).
`{"format": "metac_reveal_and_close_in_period", "info": {"post_id": 43910, "question_id": 43936}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as the price of liquid sulphur (Tampa) for Q3 2026, according to [Argus Media](https://www.argusmedia.com/en/commodities/sulphur-and-sulphuric-acid).
## Fine Print
If Argus Media fails to report the data, or is otherwise found to be inaccurate, another source may be used to resolve this question.
***
This question's information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/43910) which opened on 2026-06-30 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.
## Range
The answer must be a number in [250, 1100] (units: USD/metric ton).
## Sub-question decomposition (planner)
- (w=0.35) Will the Strait of Hormuz disruption and associated Middle East sulfur/ammonia supply outages remain unresolved through Q3 2026? — The price surge is primarily driven by this supply shock; continued disruption keeps prices elevated while resolution wo
- (w=0.30) Will liquid sulphur (Tampa) Q3 2026 prices be higher than the doubled level reported in May 2026? — Establishes whether the recent doubling continues to escalate or plateaus, directly anchoring the numeric level.
- (w=0.20) Will Qatari and OCP (Morocco) phosphate/sulfur production remain constrained (not fully restored) during Q3 2026? — Restoration of major producers would ease supply and lower prices; continued constraint sustains high prices.
- (w=0.15) Will global DAP/phosphate fertilizer demand stay strong enough to keep sulfur prices supported in Q3 2026? — Downstream demand determines how much of the supply shock translates into sustained high sulfur prices.
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | RECENT] As of June 16 2026, major shipping companies still see Strait of Hormuz transit as 'very risky' despite a US-Iran memorandum of understanding lifting restrictions.
2. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 72 | DOWN | RECENT] A US-Iran MOU to formally lift Strait of Hormuz restrictions was set to be signed June 19 2026 in Switzerland.
3. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | RECENT] May 30 2026 analysis warns Hormuz oil/commodity exports may not return to pre-war normal levels due to ongoing security risk.
4. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 72 | UP | DATED] As of April 23 2026, Middle East producers were still scrambling for alternative export routes almost two months after Hormuz was effectively shut.
5. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | DATED] Repeated April-May reopening assurances from US/Iran were quickly reversed, with Iran stating the strait 'returned to its previous state.'
6. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 68 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Argus projected Q1 2026 Tampa sulfur contract at $475-520/lt delivered, up from $310/lt prior period.
7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | DATED] US Sulphur Price Index rose 47.31% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026, averaging ~$428.67/MT (CFR).
8. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 58 | UP | RECENT] Sulfur futures surged to a record high CNY 7,500/tonne as Middle East conflict disrupted global fertilizer supply chains.
9. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | UP | RECENT] World Bank blog reported sulfur prices doubled since January 2026, driving DAP prices up over 10% in April 2026.
10. [sq2 | web_search | WEAK cred 45 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] IMARC June 2026 reported North America sulphur at ~$290/mt, differing methodology from Tampa contract pricing.
11. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | RECENT] Qatar suspended urea, ammonia and sulfur production and Morocco's OCP accelerated phosphate maintenance following Hormuz disruptions.
12. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 72 | DOWN | DATED] Nearly 60% of US farmers report worsening finances from surging fertilizer costs; some scaling back inputs and reconsidering planting.
## Cross-Market Signals
### Polymarket
- "Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" → Yes: 0.02, Volume: $113.2M
- "Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" → Yes: 0.19, Volume: $116.0M
- "Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" → Yes: 0.06, Volume: $116.9M
- "Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" → Yes: 0.02, Volume: $117.1M
- "Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $104.7M
- "Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" → Yes: 0.03, Volume: $138.5M
- "Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" → Yes: 0.16, Volume: $88.1M
- "Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" → Yes: 0.33, Volume: $100.6M
- "Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" → Yes: 0.19, Volume: $92.7M
- "Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" → Yes: 0.38, Volume: $2.5M
Information gaps:
- No direct Argus Tampa liquid sulphur Q3 2026 print (paywalled)
- No confirmation whether MOU actually signed and Hormuz reopened by Q3
- No data on Qatar/OCP production restoration timeline into Q3 2026
- Missing historical base rate for how quickly sulfur prices normalize after supply shocks
Key uncertainties:
- Whether US-Iran deal holds and Hormuz shipping normalizes before Q3
- Speed of Qatari sulfur and OCP phosphate production recovery
- Demand destruction from farmers cutting inputs offsetting supply tightness
- Exact numeric level Q3 Tampa price resolves to vs doubled May baseline
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).
(c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.
(d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.
(e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).
(f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).
## Calibration guidance
- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.
- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.
- Don't pile mass at one value — if you're tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.
- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen — don't override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution — 6-10 sentences total>",
"p10": <number>,
"p25": <number>,
"p50": <number>,
"p75": <number>,
"p90": <number>
}
Percentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 <= p25 <= p50 <= p75 <= p90).
{
"forecast": {
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | RECENT] As of June 16 2026, major shipping companies still see Strait of Hormuz transit as \u0027very risky\u0027 despite a US-Iran memorandum of understanding lifting restrictions.\n2. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 72 | DOWN | RECENT] A US-Iran MOU to formally lift Strait of Hormuz restrictions was set to be signed June 19 2026 in Switzerland.\n3. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | RECENT] May 30 2026 analysis warns Hormuz oil/commodity exports may not return to pre-war normal levels due to ongoing security risk.\n4. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 72 | UP | DATED] As of April 23 2026, Middle East producers were still scrambling for alternative export routes almost two months after Hormuz was effectively shut.\n5. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | DATED] Repeated April-May reopening assurances from US/Iran were quickly reversed, with Iran stating the strait \u0027returned to its previous state.\u0027\n6. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 68 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Argus projected Q1 2026 Tampa sulfur contract at $475-520/lt delivered, up from $310/lt prior period.\n7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | DATED] US Sulphur Price Index rose 47.31% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026, averaging ~$428.67/MT (CFR).\n8. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 58 | UP | RECENT] Sulfur futures surged to a record high CNY 7,500/tonne as Middle East conflict disrupted global fertilizer supply chains.\n9. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | UP | RECENT] World Bank blog reported sulfur prices doubled since January 2026, driving DAP prices up over 10% in April 2026.\n10. [sq2 | web_search | WEAK cred 45 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] IMARC June 2026 reported North America sulphur at ~$290/mt, differing methodology from Tampa contract pricing.\n11. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | RECENT] Qatar suspended urea, ammonia and sulfur production and Morocco\u0027s OCP accelerated phosphate maintenance following Hormuz disruptions.\n12. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 72 | DOWN | DATED] Nearly 60% of US farmers report worsening finances from surging fertilizer costs; some scaling back inputs and reconsidering planting.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.02, Volume: $113.2M\n- \"Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.19, Volume: $116.0M\n- \"Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.06, Volume: $116.9M\n- \"Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.02, Volume: $117.1M\n- \"Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $104.7M\n- \"Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.03, Volume: $138.5M\n- \"Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.16, Volume: $88.1M\n- \"Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.33, Volume: $100.6M\n- \"Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.19, Volume: $92.7M\n- \"Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.38, Volume: $2.5M\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No direct Argus Tampa liquid sulphur Q3 2026 print (paywalled)\n - No confirmation whether MOU actually signed and Hormuz reopened by Q3\n - No data on Qatar/OCP production restoration timeline into Q3 2026\n - Missing historical base rate for how quickly sulfur prices normalize after supply shocks\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether US-Iran deal holds and Hormuz shipping normalizes before Q3\n - Speed of Qatari sulfur and OCP phosphate production recovery\n - Demand destruction from farmers cutting inputs offsetting supply tightness\n - Exact numeric level Q3 Tampa price resolves to vs doubled May baseline",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.\n\n## Question\nWhat will be the World Bank monthly price of liquid sulphur (Tampa) for Q3 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nSulphur is a critical industrial input, particularly for the production of sulfuric acid and phosphate fertilizers such as DAP (diammonium phosphate). According to the World Bank\u0027s May 2026 [Data Blog post on fertilizer prices](https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/opendata/fertilizer-prices-surge-as-strait-of-hormuz-disruptions-tighten-), sulfur prices have doubled since January 2026, contributing to a more than 10% rise in DAP prices in April 2026. Additional market reporting is available from [Argus Media](https://www.argusmedia.com/en/commodities/sulphur-and-sulphuric-acid) and the [CRU sulphur market analysis](https://www.crugroup.com/en/commodities/sulphur/).\n\nThe latest surge has been driven largely by disruptions linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for Middle East fertilizer and sulfur exports. Qatar, a major sulfur producer, suspended production of urea, ammonia, and sulfur following damage to key facilities, while the Islamic Republic of Iran halted ammonia production amid the conflict. The Strait of Hormuz handles a large share of global sulfur and ammonia shipments, both of which are critical inputs for DAP production, and Morocco\u0027s OCP has also accelerated maintenance at its phosphate facilities, likely in response to these disruptions. Broader context on the outlook is available in the World Bank\u0027s April 2026 [Commodity Markets Outlook](https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets).\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 43910, \"question_id\": 43936}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the price of liquid sulphur (Tampa) for Q3 2026, according to [Argus Media](https://www.argusmedia.com/en/commodities/sulphur-and-sulphuric-acid).\n\n## Fine Print\nIf Argus Media fails to report the data, or is otherwise found to be inaccurate, another source may be used to resolve this question.\n\n***\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/43910) which opened on 2026-06-30 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.\n\n## Range\nThe answer must be a number in [250, 1100] (units: USD/metric ton).\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n- (w=0.35) Will the Strait of Hormuz disruption and associated Middle East sulfur/ammonia supply outages remain unresolved through Q3 2026? \u2014 The price surge is primarily driven by this supply shock; continued disruption keeps prices elevated while resolution wo\n- (w=0.30) Will liquid sulphur (Tampa) Q3 2026 prices be higher than the doubled level reported in May 2026? \u2014 Establishes whether the recent doubling continues to escalate or plateaus, directly anchoring the numeric level.\n- (w=0.20) Will Qatari and OCP (Morocco) phosphate/sulfur production remain constrained (not fully restored) during Q3 2026? \u2014 Restoration of major producers would ease supply and lower prices; continued constraint sustains high prices.\n- (w=0.15) Will global DAP/phosphate fertilizer demand stay strong enough to keep sulfur prices supported in Q3 2026? \u2014 Downstream demand determines how much of the supply shock translates into sustained high sulfur prices.\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | RECENT] As of June 16 2026, major shipping companies still see Strait of Hormuz transit as \u0027very risky\u0027 despite a US-Iran memorandum of understanding lifting restrictions.\n2. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 72 | DOWN | RECENT] A US-Iran MOU to formally lift Strait of Hormuz restrictions was set to be signed June 19 2026 in Switzerland.\n3. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | RECENT] May 30 2026 analysis warns Hormuz oil/commodity exports may not return to pre-war normal levels due to ongoing security risk.\n4. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 72 | UP | DATED] As of April 23 2026, Middle East producers were still scrambling for alternative export routes almost two months after Hormuz was effectively shut.\n5. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | DATED] Repeated April-May reopening assurances from US/Iran were quickly reversed, with Iran stating the strait \u0027returned to its previous state.\u0027\n6. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 68 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Argus projected Q1 2026 Tampa sulfur contract at $475-520/lt delivered, up from $310/lt prior period.\n7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | DATED] US Sulphur Price Index rose 47.31% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026, averaging ~$428.67/MT (CFR).\n8. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 58 | UP | RECENT] Sulfur futures surged to a record high CNY 7,500/tonne as Middle East conflict disrupted global fertilizer supply chains.\n9. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | UP | RECENT] World Bank blog reported sulfur prices doubled since January 2026, driving DAP prices up over 10% in April 2026.\n10. [sq2 | web_search | WEAK cred 45 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] IMARC June 2026 reported North America sulphur at ~$290/mt, differing methodology from Tampa contract pricing.\n11. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | RECENT] Qatar suspended urea, ammonia and sulfur production and Morocco\u0027s OCP accelerated phosphate maintenance following Hormuz disruptions.\n12. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 72 | DOWN | DATED] Nearly 60% of US farmers report worsening finances from surging fertilizer costs; some scaling back inputs and reconsidering planting.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.02, Volume: $113.2M\n- \"Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.19, Volume: $116.0M\n- \"Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.06, Volume: $116.9M\n- \"Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.02, Volume: $117.1M\n- \"Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $104.7M\n- \"Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.03, Volume: $138.5M\n- \"Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.16, Volume: $88.1M\n- \"Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.33, Volume: $100.6M\n- \"Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.19, Volume: $92.7M\n- \"Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.38, Volume: $2.5M\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No direct Argus Tampa liquid sulphur Q3 2026 print (paywalled)\n - No confirmation whether MOU actually signed and Hormuz reopened by Q3\n - No data on Qatar/OCP production restoration timeline into Q3 2026\n - Missing historical base rate for how quickly sulfur prices normalize after supply shocks\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether US-Iran deal holds and Hormuz shipping normalizes before Q3\n - Speed of Qatari sulfur and OCP phosphate production recovery\n - Demand destruction from farmers cutting inputs offsetting supply tightness\n - Exact numeric level Q3 Tampa price resolves to vs doubled May baseline\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).\n (c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.\n (d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.\n (e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).\n (f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.\n- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.\n- Don\u0027t pile mass at one value \u2014 if you\u0027re tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.\n- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen \u2014 don\u0027t override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution \u2014 6-10 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"p10\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p25\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p50\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p75\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p90\": \u003cnumber\u003e\n}\n\nPercentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 \u003c= p25 \u003c= p50 \u003c= p75 \u003c= p90).\n",
"models": [
"opus"
],
"p50": 720.0,
"percentiles": {
"0.1": 480.0,
"0.25": 600.0,
"0.5": 720.0,
"0.75": 850.0,
"0.9": 985.0
},
"rationale": "(a) The question resolves for Q3 2026 (Jul-Sep), roughly one quarter beyond the mid-2026 evidence. (b) Status quo: the World Bank/Argus reported sulfur prices doubled since January 2026 amid the Hormuz shock; the Q1 2026 Tampa contract was already ~$475-520/lt (~$490/mt) up from ~$310, and a doubling of the early-2026 baseline implies mid-2026 levels somewhere around $700-900/mt. (c) If the current trend of supply tightness continues (Qatar/OCP still constrained, Hormuz still \u0027very risky\u0027), prices stay elevated or drift higher toward $850-1000. (d) Markets/analysts show conflicting signals: a US-Iran MOU to lift Hormuz restrictions was set to sign June 19, but shippers still see transit as very risky and exports may not fully normalize; futures hit record highs. (e) LOW scenario: the MOU holds, Hormuz shipping normalizes, Qatari sulfur and OCP production restart, and demand destruction (60% of farmers cutting inputs) drags prices back toward $450-550/mt. (f) HIGH scenario: renewed conflict, prolonged production outages, and strong phosphate demand push Q3 prices toward $1000+/mt (top of range). Given persistent-but-possibly-easing disruption, I center the distribution around ~$720/mt with wide tails to capture both normalization and further escalation."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "economics",
"n_sub_qs": 4,
"n_tools": 4,
"reasoning_approach": "Each sub-question captures a correlated driver of the sulfur price level (supply disruption persistence, price trajectory, producer restoration, demand). Their weighted average yields a probability-like tilt that will be mapped onto a numeric distribution anchored on the recent doubled Tampa price, with upside if disruptions persist and downside if supply normalizes.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will the Strait of Hormuz disruption and associated Middle East sulfur/ammonia supply outages remain unresolved through Q3 2026?",
"rationale": "The price surge is primarily driven by this supply shock; continued disruption keeps prices elevated while resolution would allow prices to fall back.",
"weight": 0.35
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will liquid sulphur (Tampa) Q3 2026 prices be higher than the doubled level reported in May 2026?",
"rationale": "Establishes whether the recent doubling continues to escalate or plateaus, directly anchoring the numeric level.",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will Qatari and OCP (Morocco) phosphate/sulfur production remain constrained (not fully restored) during Q3 2026?",
"rationale": "Restoration of major producers would ease supply and lower prices; continued constraint sustains high prices.",
"weight": 0.2
},
{
"id": "sq4",
"question": "Will global DAP/phosphate fertilizer demand stay strong enough to keep sulfur prices supported in Q3 2026?",
"rationale": "Downstream demand determines how much of the supply shock translates into sustained high sulfur prices.",
"weight": 0.15
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find the latest Argus Media and World Bank reported price of liquid sulphur (Tampa) in USD per tonne for 2026, especially Q2 and Q3 2026. Also find whether the Strait of Hormuz closure and Qatar/Iran/OCP production suspensions have been resolved as of mid-2026.",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "World Bank monthly price of liquid sulphur (Tampa) for Q3 2026"
},
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"sq2",
"sq3"
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"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"Argus liquid sulphur Tampa price 2026 per tonne",
"Strait of Hormuz shipping status July 2026 sulfur ammonia",
"Qatar sulfur production resumed 2026 OCP maintenance"
]
},
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"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_days": 90,
"queries": [
"liquid sulphur Tampa price surge fertilizer 2026",
"DAP phosphate prices sulfur Strait of Hormuz disruption",
"sulfur market outlook Q3 2026"
]
},
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"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_months": 24,
"search_text": "phosphate fertilizer price index DAP"
},
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"tool_name": "fred_data"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-07-08T04:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nSulphur is a critical industrial input, particularly for the production of sulfuric acid and phosphate fertilizers such as DAP (diammonium phosphate). According to the World Bank\u0027s May 2026 [Data Blog post on fertilizer prices](https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/opendata/fertilizer-prices-surge-as-strait-of-hormuz-disruptions-tighten-), sulfur prices have doubled since January 2026, contributing to a more than 10% rise in DAP prices in April 2026. Additional market reporting is available from [Argus Media](https://www.argusmedia.com/en/commodities/sulphur-and-sulphuric-acid) and the [CRU sulphur market analysis](https://www.crugroup.com/en/commodities/sulphur/).\n\nThe latest surge has been driven largely by disruptions linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for Middle East fertilizer and sulfur exports. Qatar, a major sulfur producer, suspended production of urea, ammonia, and sulfur following damage to key facilities, while the Islamic Republic of Iran halted ammonia production amid the conflict. The Strait of Hormuz handles a large share of global sulfur and ammonia shipments, both of which are critical inputs for DAP production, and Morocco\u0027s OCP has also accelerated maintenance at its phosphate facilities, likely in response to these disruptions. Broader context on the outlook is available in the World Bank\u0027s April 2026 [Commodity Markets Outlook](https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets).\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 43910, \"question_id\": 43936}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the price of liquid sulphur (Tampa) for Q3 2026, according to [Argus Media](https://www.argusmedia.com/en/commodities/sulphur-and-sulphuric-acid).\n\n## Fine Print\nIf Argus Media fails to report the data, or is otherwise found to be inaccurate, another source may be used to resolve this question.\n\n***\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/43910) which opened on 2026-06-30 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.",
"open_lower": true,
"open_upper": true,
"q_max": 1100,
"q_min": 250,
"question_type": "numeric",
"title": "What will be the World Bank monthly price of liquid sulphur (Tampa) for Q3 2026?",
"units": "USD/metric ton"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.02, Volume: $113.2M\n- \"Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.19, Volume: $116.0M\n- \"Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.06, Volume: $116.9M\n- \"Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.02, Volume: $117.1M\n- \"Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $104.7M\n- \"Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.03, Volume: $138.5M\n- \"Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.16, Volume: $88.1M\n- \"Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.33, Volume: $100.6M\n- \"Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.19, Volume: $92.7M\n- \"Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.38, Volume: $2.5M",
"errors": [
"fred_data: No series to fetch: pass series_ids and/or a search_text that resolves to series."
],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 1,
"n_tools": 4,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 40.29,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "16 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 75.36,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "0 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.59,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "29 articles",
"tool_name": "article_search"
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{
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"error": "No series to fetch: pass series_ids and/or a search_text that resolves to series.",
"success": false,
"summary": "0 series",
"tool_name": "fred_data"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "As of June 16 2026, major shipping companies still see Strait of Hormuz transit as \u0027very risky\u0027 despite a US-Iran memorandum of understanding lifting restrictions.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "A US-Iran MOU to formally lift Strait of Hormuz restrictions was set to be signed June 19 2026 in Switzerland.",
"credibility": 72,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "May 30 2026 analysis warns Hormuz oil/commodity exports may not return to pre-war normal levels due to ongoing security risk.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "As of April 23 2026, Middle East producers were still scrambling for alternative export routes almost two months after Hormuz was effectively shut.",
"credibility": 72,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Repeated April-May reopening assurances from US/Iran were quickly reversed, with Iran stating the strait \u0027returned to its previous state.\u0027",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Argus projected Q1 2026 Tampa sulfur contract at $475-520/lt delivered, up from $310/lt prior period.",
"credibility": 68,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "US Sulphur Price Index rose 47.31% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026, averaging ~$428.67/MT (CFR).",
"credibility": 55,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Sulfur futures surged to a record high CNY 7,500/tonne as Middle East conflict disrupted global fertilizer supply chains.",
"credibility": 58,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "World Bank blog reported sulfur prices doubled since January 2026, driving DAP prices up over 10% in April 2026.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "IMARC June 2026 reported North America sulphur at ~$290/mt, differing methodology from Tampa contract pricing.",
"credibility": 45,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Qatar suspended urea, ammonia and sulfur production and Morocco\u0027s OCP accelerated phosphate maintenance following Hormuz disruptions.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Nearly 60% of US farmers report worsening finances from surging fertilizer costs; some scaling back inputs and reconsidering planting.",
"credibility": 72,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No direct Argus Tampa liquid sulphur Q3 2026 print (paywalled)",
"No confirmation whether MOU actually signed and Hormuz reopened by Q3",
"No data on Qatar/OCP production restoration timeline into Q3 2026",
"Missing historical base rate for how quickly sulfur prices normalize after supply shocks"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether US-Iran deal holds and Hormuz shipping normalizes before Q3",
"Speed of Qatari sulfur and OCP phosphate production recovery",
"Demand destruction from farmers cutting inputs offsetting supply tightness",
"Exact numeric level Q3 Tampa price resolves to vs doubled May baseline"
],
"n_evidence": 12
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 29.96,
"plan": 15.16,
"research": 75.36,
"synthesis": 19.77
}
}