Establish the current 'Clear' count as a baseline (sq1), estimate the trajectory of additional states reaching compliance by the deadline (sq2), and test the high-compliance ceiling (sq3), then blend these correlated factors via weighted average into a probability distribution over the multiple-choice count buckets.
## Cross-Market Signals ### No signal found
1. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 72 | DOWN | RECENT] As of March 2026, the Commission's list of single points of contact comprised only eight of 27 member states. 2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The AI Act national implementation tracker was last updated 17 June 2026, per the primary source. 3. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Member States were required to designate market surveillance authorities and notify them by 2 August 2025. 4. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | RECENT] The designation deadline (Aug 2025) has already passed, yet only eight states were compliant by March 2026, well after the deadline. 5. [sq2 | web_search | WEAK cred 68 | UP | DATED] The Commission may launch formal infringement procedures against member states failing to designate authorities, creating compliance pressure. 6. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 68 | DOWN | RECENT] No evidence found of a near-term surge; only eight of 27 states were classified compliant as of the latest March 2026 reading. 7. [sq3 | wikipedia_lookup | STRONG cred 88 | NEUTRAL | DATED] AI Act provisions phase in gradually over 6-36 months from 1 August 2024 entry into force. ## Cross-Market Signals ### No signal found Information gaps: - Exact current 'Clear' count on the tracker as of latest reading (search conflates SPOC list vs 'Clear' classification) - Month-by-month trajectory of states reaching 'Clear' status - Base rate for EU member state compliance speed after missed deadlines - Distinction between tracker's 'Clear' criteria and Commission's SPOC list Key uncertainties: - Whether tracker's 'Clear' count equals the ~8 SPOC figure or differs - Whether infringement pressure accelerates designations before Aug 2026 - Pace of designations between June and August 2026 - Definitional threshold the tracker uses for 'Clear' status
You are an elite superforecaster. Estimate the probability of each option for this Metaculus multiple-choice question.
## Question
How many EU member states will the AI Act National Implementation tracker classify as having clear market surveillance and notifying authorities on August 31, 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
Wikipedia: [Artificial Intelligence Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_Intelligence_Act)
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as the number of National Competent Authorities classified as "Clear" at the EU's [Overview of all AI Act National Implementation Plans](https://artificialintelligenceact.eu/national-implementation-plans/) tracker, when checked by Metaculus on or after August 31, 2026.
## Options
- ≤9
- 10 or 11
- 12 or 13
- 14 or 15
- >15
## Sub-question decomposition (planner)
- (w=0.40) Will the current number of EU member states classified as 'Clear' on the AI Act National Implementation tracker be at least 10 as of the latest available reading? — Establishes the current baseline count, which is the strongest predictor of the count on August 31, 2026.
- (w=0.35) Will the rate of member states achieving 'Clear' status accelerate meaningfully between now and August 31, 2026? — The AI Act's Article 70 deadline for designating market surveillance and notifying authorities was August 2, 2025, so ma
- (w=0.25) Will a large majority (20+) of the 27 EU member states reach 'Clear' classification by August 31, 2026? — Tests the upper-end scenario where near-full compliance occurs, capturing the possibility that laggard states designate
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 72 | DOWN | RECENT] As of March 2026, the Commission's list of single points of contact comprised only eight of 27 member states.
2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The AI Act national implementation tracker was last updated 17 June 2026, per the primary source.
3. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Member States were required to designate market surveillance authorities and notify them by 2 August 2025.
4. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | RECENT] The designation deadline (Aug 2025) has already passed, yet only eight states were compliant by March 2026, well after the deadline.
5. [sq2 | web_search | WEAK cred 68 | UP | DATED] The Commission may launch formal infringement procedures against member states failing to designate authorities, creating compliance pressure.
6. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 68 | DOWN | RECENT] No evidence found of a near-term surge; only eight of 27 states were classified compliant as of the latest March 2026 reading.
7. [sq3 | wikipedia_lookup | STRONG cred 88 | NEUTRAL | DATED] AI Act provisions phase in gradually over 6-36 months from 1 August 2024 entry into force.
## Cross-Market Signals
### No signal found
Information gaps:
- Exact current 'Clear' count on the tracker as of latest reading (search conflates SPOC list vs 'Clear' classification)
- Month-by-month trajectory of states reaching 'Clear' status
- Base rate for EU member state compliance speed after missed deadlines
- Distinction between tracker's 'Clear' criteria and Commission's SPOC list
Key uncertainties:
- Whether tracker's 'Clear' count equals the ~8 SPOC figure or differs
- Whether infringement pressure accelerates designations before Aug 2026
- Pace of designations between June and August 2026
- Definitional threshold the tracker uses for 'Clear' status
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving probabilities, address these explicitly in your rationale:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The status quo outcome — the option most likely if nothing changes from today.
(c) An outcome that would be SURPRISING but plausible.
## Calibration guidance
- **Status quo anchoring.** Good forecasters put extra weight on the status quo option because the world changes slowly most of the time.
- **Leave moderate probability on most options.** Good forecasters don't drop options to ~0% — leave ≥3-5% on every option to account for unexpected outcomes, unless you have strong specific evidence ruling them out.
- Avoid uniform-distribution laziness — most options are not equally likely.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) for these options appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong prior and stay close to them absent specific contrary evidence.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) above, then explain your distribution — 4-7 sentences total>",
"probabilities": {
"≤9": <prob>,
"10 or 11": <prob>,
"12 or 13": <prob>,
"14 or 15": <prob>,
">15": <prob>
}
}
Probabilities MUST sum to ~1.0 (renormalization is applied; close enough is fine).
{
"forecast": {
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 72 | DOWN | RECENT] As of March 2026, the Commission\u0027s list of single points of contact comprised only eight of 27 member states.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The AI Act national implementation tracker was last updated 17 June 2026, per the primary source.\n3. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Member States were required to designate market surveillance authorities and notify them by 2 August 2025.\n4. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | RECENT] The designation deadline (Aug 2025) has already passed, yet only eight states were compliant by March 2026, well after the deadline.\n5. [sq2 | web_search | WEAK cred 68 | UP | DATED] The Commission may launch formal infringement procedures against member states failing to designate authorities, creating compliance pressure.\n6. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 68 | DOWN | RECENT] No evidence found of a near-term surge; only eight of 27 states were classified compliant as of the latest March 2026 reading.\n7. [sq3 | wikipedia_lookup | STRONG cred 88 | NEUTRAL | DATED] AI Act provisions phase in gradually over 6-36 months from 1 August 2024 entry into force.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n - Exact current \u0027Clear\u0027 count on the tracker as of latest reading (search conflates SPOC list vs \u0027Clear\u0027 classification)\n - Month-by-month trajectory of states reaching \u0027Clear\u0027 status\n - Base rate for EU member state compliance speed after missed deadlines\n - Distinction between tracker\u0027s \u0027Clear\u0027 criteria and Commission\u0027s SPOC list\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether tracker\u0027s \u0027Clear\u0027 count equals the ~8 SPOC figure or differs\n - Whether infringement pressure accelerates designations before Aug 2026\n - Pace of designations between June and August 2026\n - Definitional threshold the tracker uses for \u0027Clear\u0027 status",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Estimate the probability of each option for this Metaculus multiple-choice question.\n\n## Question\nHow many EU member states will the AI Act National Implementation tracker classify as having clear market surveillance and notifying authorities on August 31, 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nWikipedia: [Artificial Intelligence Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_Intelligence_Act)\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the number of National Competent Authorities classified as \"Clear\" at the EU\u0027s [Overview of all AI Act National Implementation Plans](https://artificialintelligenceact.eu/national-implementation-plans/) tracker, when checked by Metaculus on or after August 31, 2026.\n\n## Options\n - \u22649\n - 10 or 11\n - 12 or 13\n - 14 or 15\n - \u003e15\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n- (w=0.40) Will the current number of EU member states classified as \u0027Clear\u0027 on the AI Act National Implementation tracker be at least 10 as of the latest available reading? \u2014 Establishes the current baseline count, which is the strongest predictor of the count on August 31, 2026.\n- (w=0.35) Will the rate of member states achieving \u0027Clear\u0027 status accelerate meaningfully between now and August 31, 2026? \u2014 The AI Act\u0027s Article 70 deadline for designating market surveillance and notifying authorities was August 2, 2025, so ma\n- (w=0.25) Will a large majority (20+) of the 27 EU member states reach \u0027Clear\u0027 classification by August 31, 2026? \u2014 Tests the upper-end scenario where near-full compliance occurs, capturing the possibility that laggard states designate \n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 72 | DOWN | RECENT] As of March 2026, the Commission\u0027s list of single points of contact comprised only eight of 27 member states.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The AI Act national implementation tracker was last updated 17 June 2026, per the primary source.\n3. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Member States were required to designate market surveillance authorities and notify them by 2 August 2025.\n4. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | RECENT] The designation deadline (Aug 2025) has already passed, yet only eight states were compliant by March 2026, well after the deadline.\n5. [sq2 | web_search | WEAK cred 68 | UP | DATED] The Commission may launch formal infringement procedures against member states failing to designate authorities, creating compliance pressure.\n6. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 68 | DOWN | RECENT] No evidence found of a near-term surge; only eight of 27 states were classified compliant as of the latest March 2026 reading.\n7. [sq3 | wikipedia_lookup | STRONG cred 88 | NEUTRAL | DATED] AI Act provisions phase in gradually over 6-36 months from 1 August 2024 entry into force.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n - Exact current \u0027Clear\u0027 count on the tracker as of latest reading (search conflates SPOC list vs \u0027Clear\u0027 classification)\n - Month-by-month trajectory of states reaching \u0027Clear\u0027 status\n - Base rate for EU member state compliance speed after missed deadlines\n - Distinction between tracker\u0027s \u0027Clear\u0027 criteria and Commission\u0027s SPOC list\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether tracker\u0027s \u0027Clear\u0027 count equals the ~8 SPOC figure or differs\n - Whether infringement pressure accelerates designations before Aug 2026\n - Pace of designations between June and August 2026\n - Definitional threshold the tracker uses for \u0027Clear\u0027 status\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving probabilities, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The status quo outcome \u2014 the option most likely if nothing changes from today.\n (c) An outcome that would be SURPRISING but plausible.\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Status quo anchoring.** Good forecasters put extra weight on the status quo option because the world changes slowly most of the time.\n- **Leave moderate probability on most options.** Good forecasters don\u0027t drop options to ~0% \u2014 leave \u22653-5% on every option to account for unexpected outcomes, unless you have strong specific evidence ruling them out.\n- Avoid uniform-distribution laziness \u2014 most options are not equally likely.\n- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) for these options appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong prior and stay close to them absent specific contrary evidence.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) (b) (c) above, then explain your distribution \u2014 4-7 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"probabilities\": {\n \"\u22649\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"10 or 11\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"12 or 13\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"14 or 15\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"\u003e15\": \u003cprob\u003e\n }\n}\n\nProbabilities MUST sum to ~1.0 (renormalization is applied; close enough is fine).\n",
"models": [
"opus"
],
"probabilities": {
"10 or 11": 0.29,
"12 or 13": 0.19,
"14 or 15": 0.1,
"\u003e15": 0.06,
"\u22649": 0.36
},
"rationale": "(a) The tracker was last updated 17 June 2026, leaving roughly 2.5 months until resolution on 31 August 2026. (b) The status quo: only about eight of 27 states were compliant/listed as of March 2026, and the pace has been slow even after the 2 August 2025 deadline, so a count in the \u22649 or 10-11 range is most likely if trends persist. (c) A surprising but plausible outcome is a late surge driven by Commission infringement pressure pushing many laggards to designate authorities, lifting the count into the 14-15 or \u003e15 range. Given the historically slow implementation but modest upward momentum plus infringement pressure, I center the distribution on the low-to-middle bins. I keep meaningful weight on 12-13 to account for steady progress, and retain small but non-trivial probability on the upper bins for a compliance rush.",
"top_option": "\u22649"
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "legal",
"n_sub_qs": 3,
"n_tools": 3,
"reasoning_approach": "Establish the current \u0027Clear\u0027 count as a baseline (sq1), estimate the trajectory of additional states reaching compliance by the deadline (sq2), and test the high-compliance ceiling (sq3), then blend these correlated factors via weighted average into a probability distribution over the multiple-choice count buckets.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will the current number of EU member states classified as \u0027Clear\u0027 on the AI Act National Implementation tracker be at least 10 as of the latest available reading?",
"rationale": "Establishes the current baseline count, which is the strongest predictor of the count on August 31, 2026.",
"weight": 0.4
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will the rate of member states achieving \u0027Clear\u0027 status accelerate meaningfully between now and August 31, 2026?",
"rationale": "The AI Act\u0027s Article 70 deadline for designating market surveillance and notifying authorities was August 2, 2025, so many states are late; the pace of catch-up drives the final total.",
"weight": 0.35
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will a large majority (20+) of the 27 EU member states reach \u0027Clear\u0027 classification by August 31, 2026?",
"rationale": "Tests the upper-end scenario where near-full compliance occurs, capturing the possibility that laggard states designate authorities under enforcement pressure.",
"weight": 0.25
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"AI Act national implementation plans tracker Clear market surveillance notifying authorities",
"artificialintelligenceact.eu national implementation plans overview 2026",
"EU member states AI Act Article 70 competent authorities designation status"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find how many EU member states have designated national market surveillance and notifying authorities under the AI Act, and how the artificialintelligenceact.eu national implementation tracker currently classifies each state (Clear vs partial/unclear). Note the August 2, 2025 Article 70 deadline and trends in states catching up through 2026.",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "How many EU member states will the AI Act National Implementation tracker classify as having clear market surveillance and notifying authorities on August 31, 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"Artificial Intelligence Act",
"AI Act national competent authorities",
"AI Act implementation timeline"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "wikipedia_lookup"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-07-08T00:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nWikipedia: [Artificial Intelligence Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_Intelligence_Act)\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the number of National Competent Authorities classified as \"Clear\" at the EU\u0027s [Overview of all AI Act National Implementation Plans](https://artificialintelligenceact.eu/national-implementation-plans/) tracker, when checked by Metaculus on or after August 31, 2026.",
"options": [
"\u22649",
"10 or 11",
"12 or 13",
"14 or 15",
"\u003e15"
],
"question_type": "multiple_choice",
"title": "How many EU member states will the AI Act National Implementation tracker classify as having clear market surveillance and notifying authorities on August 31, 2026?"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 3,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 66.35,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "0 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 36.96,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "12 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 1.79,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "3 pages",
"tool_name": "wikipedia_lookup"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "As of March 2026, the Commission\u0027s list of single points of contact comprised only eight of 27 member states.",
"credibility": 72,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "The AI Act national implementation tracker was last updated 17 June 2026, per the primary source.",
"credibility": 65,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Member States were required to designate market surveillance authorities and notify them by 2 August 2025.",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "The designation deadline (Aug 2025) has already passed, yet only eight states were compliant by March 2026, well after the deadline.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "The Commission may launch formal infringement procedures against member states failing to designate authorities, creating compliance pressure.",
"credibility": 68,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "No evidence found of a near-term surge; only eight of 27 states were classified compliant as of the latest March 2026 reading.",
"credibility": 68,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "AI Act provisions phase in gradually over 6-36 months from 1 August 2024 entry into force.",
"credibility": 88,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "wikipedia_lookup",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"Exact current \u0027Clear\u0027 count on the tracker as of latest reading (search conflates SPOC list vs \u0027Clear\u0027 classification)",
"Month-by-month trajectory of states reaching \u0027Clear\u0027 status",
"Base rate for EU member state compliance speed after missed deadlines",
"Distinction between tracker\u0027s \u0027Clear\u0027 criteria and Commission\u0027s SPOC list"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether tracker\u0027s \u0027Clear\u0027 count equals the ~8 SPOC figure or differs",
"Whether infringement pressure accelerates designations before Aug 2026",
"Pace of designations between June and August 2026",
"Definitional threshold the tracker uses for \u0027Clear\u0027 status"
],
"n_evidence": 7
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 15.01,
"plan": 13.08,
"research": 66.35,
"synthesis": 14.0
}
}