Each sub-question captures a driver of whether Donalds (the presumptive frontrunner) wins the primary; weighted averaging blends polling lead, Trump endorsement durability, challenger strength, and scandal risk into a probability that maps to the multiple-choice outcome, since these factors are highly correlated.
## Cross-Market Signals ### No signal found
1. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Trump-endorsed Rep. Randy Feenstra lost the Iowa Republican gubernatorial primary to businessman Zach Lahn in June 2026. 2. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 45 | UP | DATED] Byron Donalds publicly asserted his GOP gubernatorial opponents are not viable because voters don't back them. 3. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 80 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Ron DeSantis remains active as governor through mid-2026, announcing policy actions like the closure of Alligator Alcatraz in late June 2026. 4. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 30 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No polling data specific to the Florida GOP gubernatorial primary appears in the retrieved articles. ## Cross-Market Signals ### No signal found Information gaps: - No actual polling data for Florida GOP gubernatorial primary (sq1) - No confirmation of Trump endorsement status for Donalds (sq2) - No data on whether Casey DeSantis, Paul Renner, or others have entered the race (sq3) - Base rate: how often Trump-endorsed frontrunners win FL statewide GOP primaries Key uncertainties: - Whether Casey DeSantis or another DeSantis-aligned candidate enters competitively - Durability of Trump's endorsement given his mixed endorsement track record (Feenstra lost) - Donalds' actual polling lead and margin over the field - Scandal or campaign collapse risk before the primary
You are an elite superforecaster. Estimate the probability of each option for this Metaculus multiple-choice question.
## Question
What will be the result of the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
Florida Politics: [Byron Donalds says GOP gubernatorial opponents aren’t viable because voters don’t back them](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/803338-donalds-opponents-not-viable/)
`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "9fa53d94084aa637", "sheet_id": "89"}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as the result of the [2026 Republican primary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Florida_gubernatorial_election#Republican_primary) in the Florida gubernatorial election, according to official results or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).
## Options
- Donalds wins, with ≥75% of the vote
- Donalds wins, with >65% and <75% of the vote
- Donalds wins, with >55% and ≤65% of the vote
- Donalds wins, with ≤55% of the vote
- Donalds loses
## Sub-question decomposition (planner)
- (w=0.40) Will Byron Donalds be the leading candidate in polling for the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary throughout the campaign? — Donalds is Trump-endorsed and widely considered the frontrunner; his polling dominance is the strongest signal of the ev
- (w=0.30) Will Byron Donalds retain President Trump's endorsement through the primary? — In Florida GOP primaries, Trump's endorsement is decisive; loss of it would drastically change the race.
- (w=0.20) Will a major challenger (e.g. a DeSantis-aligned candidate like Casey DeSantis or Paul Renner) enter and mount a competitive campaign? — A serious establishment/DeSantis-backed challenger is the main threat to a Donalds win.
- (w=0.10) Will Donalds avoid a major scandal or campaign collapse before the primary? — Frontrunner status can be undone by late-breaking events; this captures downside risk.
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Trump-endorsed Rep. Randy Feenstra lost the Iowa Republican gubernatorial primary to businessman Zach Lahn in June 2026.
2. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 45 | UP | DATED] Byron Donalds publicly asserted his GOP gubernatorial opponents are not viable because voters don't back them.
3. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 80 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Ron DeSantis remains active as governor through mid-2026, announcing policy actions like the closure of Alligator Alcatraz in late June 2026.
4. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 30 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No polling data specific to the Florida GOP gubernatorial primary appears in the retrieved articles.
## Cross-Market Signals
### No signal found
Information gaps:
- No actual polling data for Florida GOP gubernatorial primary (sq1)
- No confirmation of Trump endorsement status for Donalds (sq2)
- No data on whether Casey DeSantis, Paul Renner, or others have entered the race (sq3)
- Base rate: how often Trump-endorsed frontrunners win FL statewide GOP primaries
Key uncertainties:
- Whether Casey DeSantis or another DeSantis-aligned candidate enters competitively
- Durability of Trump's endorsement given his mixed endorsement track record (Feenstra lost)
- Donalds' actual polling lead and margin over the field
- Scandal or campaign collapse risk before the primary
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving probabilities, address these explicitly in your rationale:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The status quo outcome — the option most likely if nothing changes from today.
(c) An outcome that would be SURPRISING but plausible.
## Calibration guidance
- **Status quo anchoring.** Good forecasters put extra weight on the status quo option because the world changes slowly most of the time.
- **Leave moderate probability on most options.** Good forecasters don't drop options to ~0% — leave ≥3-5% on every option to account for unexpected outcomes, unless you have strong specific evidence ruling them out.
- Avoid uniform-distribution laziness — most options are not equally likely.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) for these options appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong prior and stay close to them absent specific contrary evidence.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) above, then explain your distribution — 4-7 sentences total>",
"probabilities": {
"Donalds wins, with ≥75% of the vote": <prob>,
"Donalds wins, with >65% and <75% of the vote": <prob>,
"Donalds wins, with >55% and ≤65% of the vote": <prob>,
"Donalds wins, with ≤55% of the vote": <prob>,
"Donalds loses": <prob>
}
}
Probabilities MUST sum to ~1.0 (renormalization is applied; close enough is fine).
{
"forecast": {
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Trump-endorsed Rep. Randy Feenstra lost the Iowa Republican gubernatorial primary to businessman Zach Lahn in June 2026.\n2. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 45 | UP | DATED] Byron Donalds publicly asserted his GOP gubernatorial opponents are not viable because voters don\u0027t back them.\n3. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 80 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Ron DeSantis remains active as governor through mid-2026, announcing policy actions like the closure of Alligator Alcatraz in late June 2026.\n4. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 30 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No polling data specific to the Florida GOP gubernatorial primary appears in the retrieved articles.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No actual polling data for Florida GOP gubernatorial primary (sq1)\n - No confirmation of Trump endorsement status for Donalds (sq2)\n - No data on whether Casey DeSantis, Paul Renner, or others have entered the race (sq3)\n - Base rate: how often Trump-endorsed frontrunners win FL statewide GOP primaries\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether Casey DeSantis or another DeSantis-aligned candidate enters competitively\n - Durability of Trump\u0027s endorsement given his mixed endorsement track record (Feenstra lost)\n - Donalds\u0027 actual polling lead and margin over the field\n - Scandal or campaign collapse risk before the primary",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Estimate the probability of each option for this Metaculus multiple-choice question.\n\n## Question\nWhat will be the result of the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nFlorida Politics: [Byron Donalds says GOP gubernatorial opponents aren\u2019t viable because voters don\u2019t back them](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/803338-donalds-opponents-not-viable/)\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"9fa53d94084aa637\", \"sheet_id\": \"89\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the result of the [2026 Republican primary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Florida_gubernatorial_election#Republican_primary) in the Florida gubernatorial election, according to official results or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\n## Options\n - Donalds wins, with \u226575% of the vote\n - Donalds wins, with \u003e65% and \u003c75% of the vote\n - Donalds wins, with \u003e55% and \u226465% of the vote\n - Donalds wins, with \u226455% of the vote\n - Donalds loses\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n- (w=0.40) Will Byron Donalds be the leading candidate in polling for the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary throughout the campaign? \u2014 Donalds is Trump-endorsed and widely considered the frontrunner; his polling dominance is the strongest signal of the ev\n- (w=0.30) Will Byron Donalds retain President Trump\u0027s endorsement through the primary? \u2014 In Florida GOP primaries, Trump\u0027s endorsement is decisive; loss of it would drastically change the race.\n- (w=0.20) Will a major challenger (e.g. a DeSantis-aligned candidate like Casey DeSantis or Paul Renner) enter and mount a competitive campaign? \u2014 A serious establishment/DeSantis-backed challenger is the main threat to a Donalds win.\n- (w=0.10) Will Donalds avoid a major scandal or campaign collapse before the primary? \u2014 Frontrunner status can be undone by late-breaking events; this captures downside risk.\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Trump-endorsed Rep. Randy Feenstra lost the Iowa Republican gubernatorial primary to businessman Zach Lahn in June 2026.\n2. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 45 | UP | DATED] Byron Donalds publicly asserted his GOP gubernatorial opponents are not viable because voters don\u0027t back them.\n3. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 80 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Ron DeSantis remains active as governor through mid-2026, announcing policy actions like the closure of Alligator Alcatraz in late June 2026.\n4. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 30 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No polling data specific to the Florida GOP gubernatorial primary appears in the retrieved articles.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No actual polling data for Florida GOP gubernatorial primary (sq1)\n - No confirmation of Trump endorsement status for Donalds (sq2)\n - No data on whether Casey DeSantis, Paul Renner, or others have entered the race (sq3)\n - Base rate: how often Trump-endorsed frontrunners win FL statewide GOP primaries\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether Casey DeSantis or another DeSantis-aligned candidate enters competitively\n - Durability of Trump\u0027s endorsement given his mixed endorsement track record (Feenstra lost)\n - Donalds\u0027 actual polling lead and margin over the field\n - Scandal or campaign collapse risk before the primary\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving probabilities, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The status quo outcome \u2014 the option most likely if nothing changes from today.\n (c) An outcome that would be SURPRISING but plausible.\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Status quo anchoring.** Good forecasters put extra weight on the status quo option because the world changes slowly most of the time.\n- **Leave moderate probability on most options.** Good forecasters don\u0027t drop options to ~0% \u2014 leave \u22653-5% on every option to account for unexpected outcomes, unless you have strong specific evidence ruling them out.\n- Avoid uniform-distribution laziness \u2014 most options are not equally likely.\n- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) for these options appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong prior and stay close to them absent specific contrary evidence.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) (b) (c) above, then explain your distribution \u2014 4-7 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"probabilities\": {\n \"Donalds wins, with \u226575% of the vote\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Donalds wins, with \u003e65% and \u003c75% of the vote\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Donalds wins, with \u003e55% and \u226465% of the vote\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Donalds wins, with \u226455% of the vote\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Donalds loses\": \u003cprob\u003e\n }\n}\n\nProbabilities MUST sum to ~1.0 (renormalization is applied; close enough is fine).\n",
"models": [
"opus"
],
"probabilities": {
"Donalds loses": 0.15,
"Donalds wins, with \u003e55% and \u226465% of the vote": 0.23,
"Donalds wins, with \u003e65% and \u003c75% of the vote": 0.24,
"Donalds wins, with \u226455% of the vote": 0.18,
"Donalds wins, with \u226575% of the vote": 0.2
},
"rationale": "(a) The primary is in August 2026, so months remain and the field could still shift, especially regarding a DeSantis-aligned entrant. (b) Status quo: Donalds is the Trump-endorsed frontrunner who claims his opponents lack support, and Trump endorsements dominate Florida GOP primaries, so a Donalds win is the base case. (c) A SURPRISING but plausible outcome is a competitive Casey DeSantis (or Renner) campaign that either narrows the margin dramatically or upsets Donalds\u2014the Feenstra loss in Iowa shows Trump endorsements aren\u0027t infallible. Absent hard polling data, I keep meaningful probability across win-margin buckets: if the field stays weak, Donalds wins big (65%+), but a serious challenger would compress the margin into the tight-win or loss range. I center the distribution on solid-to-large wins while leaving substantial tail weight on a competitive race and a modest chance of an outright loss given endorsement volatility and an active DeSantis machine in the state.",
"top_option": "Donalds wins, with \u003e65% and \u003c75% of the vote"
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "politics",
"n_sub_qs": 4,
"n_tools": 3,
"reasoning_approach": "Each sub-question captures a driver of whether Donalds (the presumptive frontrunner) wins the primary; weighted averaging blends polling lead, Trump endorsement durability, challenger strength, and scandal risk into a probability that maps to the multiple-choice outcome, since these factors are highly correlated.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will Byron Donalds be the leading candidate in polling for the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary throughout the campaign?",
"rationale": "Donalds is Trump-endorsed and widely considered the frontrunner; his polling dominance is the strongest signal of the eventual winner.",
"weight": 0.4
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will Byron Donalds retain President Trump\u0027s endorsement through the primary?",
"rationale": "In Florida GOP primaries, Trump\u0027s endorsement is decisive; loss of it would drastically change the race.",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will a major challenger (e.g. a DeSantis-aligned candidate like Casey DeSantis or Paul Renner) enter and mount a competitive campaign?",
"rationale": "A serious establishment/DeSantis-backed challenger is the main threat to a Donalds win.",
"weight": 0.2
},
{
"id": "sq4",
"question": "Will Donalds avoid a major scandal or campaign collapse before the primary?",
"rationale": "Frontrunner status can be undone by late-breaking events; this captures downside risk.",
"weight": 0.1
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"2026 Florida gubernatorial election",
"Byron Donalds",
"2026 Florida gubernatorial election Republican primary"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "wikipedia_lookup"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_days": 120,
"queries": [
"Byron Donalds Florida governor primary poll 2026",
"Casey DeSantis Florida governor 2026 run",
"Trump endorsement Florida governor 2026 Donalds"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find the latest polling, candidate field, and endorsement status for the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary, focusing on Byron Donalds\u0027s frontrunner status, whether any DeSantis-aligned challenger (Casey DeSantis, Paul Renner) has entered, and any developments that could shift the race.",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "What will be the result of the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-07-07T18:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nFlorida Politics: [Byron Donalds says GOP gubernatorial opponents aren\u2019t viable because voters don\u2019t back them](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/803338-donalds-opponents-not-viable/)\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"9fa53d94084aa637\", \"sheet_id\": \"89\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the result of the [2026 Republican primary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Florida_gubernatorial_election#Republican_primary) in the Florida gubernatorial election, according to official results or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).",
"options": [
"Donalds wins, with \u226575% of the vote",
"Donalds wins, with \u003e65% and \u003c75% of the vote",
"Donalds wins, with \u003e55% and \u226465% of the vote",
"Donalds wins, with \u226455% of the vote",
"Donalds loses"
],
"question_type": "multiple_choice",
"title": "What will be the result of the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary?"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found",
"errors": [
"wikipedia_lookup: None"
],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 1,
"n_tools": 3,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 0.5,
"error": null,
"success": false,
"summary": "3 pages",
"tool_name": "wikipedia_lookup"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.71,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "27 articles",
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 32.2,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "17 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "Trump-endorsed Rep. Randy Feenstra lost the Iowa Republican gubernatorial primary to businessman Zach Lahn in June 2026.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Byron Donalds publicly asserted his GOP gubernatorial opponents are not viable because voters don\u0027t back them.",
"credibility": 45,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Ron DeSantis remains active as governor through mid-2026, announcing policy actions like the closure of Alligator Alcatraz in late June 2026.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "No polling data specific to the Florida GOP gubernatorial primary appears in the retrieved articles.",
"credibility": 30,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No actual polling data for Florida GOP gubernatorial primary (sq1)",
"No confirmation of Trump endorsement status for Donalds (sq2)",
"No data on whether Casey DeSantis, Paul Renner, or others have entered the race (sq3)",
"Base rate: how often Trump-endorsed frontrunners win FL statewide GOP primaries"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether Casey DeSantis or another DeSantis-aligned candidate enters competitively",
"Durability of Trump\u0027s endorsement given his mixed endorsement track record (Feenstra lost)",
"Donalds\u0027 actual polling lead and margin over the field",
"Scandal or campaign collapse risk before the primary"
],
"n_evidence": 4
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 18.57,
"plan": 16.55,
"research": 32.2,
"synthesis": 13.61
}
}