Show full JSON
{
"forecast": {
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | DATED] Russia cut its 2026 growth forecast as the war economy loses momentum, per Financial Times reporting.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No Trading Economics figure for recent Russian quarterly GDP growth\n - No official Rosstat Q1 2026 GDP data\n - No forecast range from IMF/World Bank/CBR for Q2 2026\n - No base rate of recent Russian quarterly GDP trajectory\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Oil/gas price and export volume trends\n - Impact of sanctions and defense spending on GDP\n - Interest rate policy and inflation effects\n - Trading Economics revision methodology",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.\n\n## Question\nWhat will be Russia\u0027s annual GDP growth rate for Q2 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nFinancial Times: [Russia cuts growth forecast as Putin\u2019s war economy runs out of momentum](https://www.ft.com/content/30d82390-b30f-41c7-a3dc-f4768126d99e)\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as Russia\u0027s annual GDP growth rate for Q2 2026 according to [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp-growth-annual) when checked by Metaculus on or after August 13, 2026.\n\n## Fine Print\nNo other resolution source will be used in resolving this question.\n\n## Range\nThe answer must be a number in [-1.05, 3.05] (units: %).\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n(none)\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | DOWN | DATED] Russia cut its 2026 growth forecast as the war economy loses momentum, per Financial Times reporting.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No Trading Economics figure for recent Russian quarterly GDP growth\n - No official Rosstat Q1 2026 GDP data\n - No forecast range from IMF/World Bank/CBR for Q2 2026\n - No base rate of recent Russian quarterly GDP trajectory\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Oil/gas price and export volume trends\n - Impact of sanctions and defense spending on GDP\n - Interest rate policy and inflation effects\n - Trading Economics revision methodology\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).\n (c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.\n (d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.\n (e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).\n (f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.\n- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.\n- Don\u0027t pile mass at one value \u2014 if you\u0027re tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.\n- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen \u2014 don\u0027t override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution \u2014 6-10 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"p10\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p25\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p50\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p75\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p90\": \u003cnumber\u003e\n}\n\nPercentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 \u003c= p25 \u003c= p50 \u003c= p75 \u003c= p90).\n",
"models": [
"opus"
],
"p50": 1.0,
"percentiles": {
"0.1": -0.3,
"0.25": 0.4,
"0.5": 1.0,
"0.75": 1.6,
"0.9": 2.2
},
"rationale": "(a) The question resolves after August 13, 2026, roughly 9-10 months out, covering Q2 2026 data. (b) Status quo: Russian annual GDP growth has decelerated sharply from ~4% in 2024 to roughly 1-1.5% in early-to-mid 2025, with Q1 2025 near 1.4% and Q2 2025 near 1.1%. (c) If the current cooling trend continues under high interest rates, sanctions, and softening oil revenues, Q2 2026 growth likely lands around 0.5-1.3%. (d) The FT reports Russia cut its 2026 forecast as the war economy loses momentum; official CBR and IMF projections cluster around 1-1.5%. (e) A low scenario (near p10): a sharper credit crunch, falling oil prices, or intensified sanctions push the economy into stagnation or mild contraction near or below zero. (f) A high scenario (near p90): renewed fiscal/defense stimulus, higher energy revenues, or base effects lift growth back toward 2-2.5%. Given the strong deceleration trend but wide macro uncertainty, I center the distribution near 1.0% with a fairly wide spread and a fatter lower tail to account for recession risk."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "unknown",
"n_sub_qs": 0,
"n_tools": 0,
"reasoning_approach": "",
"sub_questions": [],
"tool_requests": []
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-07-07T12:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nFinancial Times: [Russia cuts growth forecast as Putin\u2019s war economy runs out of momentum](https://www.ft.com/content/30d82390-b30f-41c7-a3dc-f4768126d99e)\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as Russia\u0027s annual GDP growth rate for Q2 2026 according to [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp-growth-annual) when checked by Metaculus on or after August 13, 2026.\n\n## Fine Print\nNo other resolution source will be used in resolving this question.",
"open_lower": true,
"open_upper": true,
"q_max": 3.05,
"q_min": -1.05,
"question_type": "numeric",
"title": "What will be Russia\u0027s annual GDP growth rate for Q2 2026?",
"units": "%"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 0,
"tools": []
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "Russia cut its 2026 growth forecast as the war economy loses momentum, per Financial Times reporting.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No Trading Economics figure for recent Russian quarterly GDP growth",
"No official Rosstat Q1 2026 GDP data",
"No forecast range from IMF/World Bank/CBR for Q2 2026",
"No base rate of recent Russian quarterly GDP trajectory"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Oil/gas price and export volume trends",
"Impact of sanctions and defense spending on GDP",
"Interest rate policy and inflation effects",
"Trading Economics revision methodology"
],
"n_evidence": 1
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 15.97,
"plan": 26.51,
"research": 0.8,
"synthesis": 7.07
}
}