Each company's probability of a July 2026 funding round is estimated from base rates and recent news; since any single YES resolves the main question YES, an independent_or combination captures the union while blending toward the holistic estimate.
## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $8.0M - "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.84, Volume: $10.2M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.15, Volume: $10.6M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $7.0M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $7.5M - "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.06, Volume: $567.6K - "Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.77, Volume: $297.5K - "Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $298.8K - "Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $211.6K - "GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $355.5K
1. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Poisson base-rate model estimates OpenAI's monthly funding-round listing probability at 0.341. 2. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Poisson base-rate model estimates Anthropic's monthly funding-round listing probability at 0.313. 3. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Poisson base-rate model estimates Mistral AI's monthly funding-round listing probability at 0.118. 4. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Combined OR base-rate estimate for any of the three companies having a July 2026 round is 0.60. 5. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] OpenAI announced $110 billion in funding from strategic partners including Amazon and Nvidia in early 2026, per an IPO-style investor document. 6. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | DATED] OpenAI is in confidential IPO filing phase, sharing an IPO-style prospectus with prospective investors as of March 2026. 7. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] OpenAI is embroiled in the Musk v. Altman trial through April-May 2026 over its for-profit conversion. 8. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Anthropic is valued near $1 trillion and reportedly in confidential IPO filing phase as of June 2026. 9. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 82 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Anthropic faces ongoing US government blacklisting and export-control disputes with the DOD and Trump administration through June 2026. 10. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | DATED] NYT reports AI companies including OpenAI and Anthropic shattered fund-raising records with a $297B haul in Q1 2026. ## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $8.0M - "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.84, Volume: $10.2M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.15, Volume: $10.6M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $7.0M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $7.5M - "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.06, Volume: $567.6K - "Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.77, Volume: $297.5K - "Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $298.8K - "Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $211.6K - "GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $355.5K Information gaps: - No direct evidence of any July 2026 round being announced or listed on TracXn - No historical frequency data on how often TracXn adds new dated rounds per company per month - No news on Mistral AI's recent funding activity - Whether IPO filing phase reduces likelihood of private funding-round listings Key uncertainties: - Timing of any strategic/Stargate tranche listings falling in July 2026 - Whether Anthropic's regulatory clashes deter or accelerate a raise - How TracXn dates and records tranches of large rounds - Impact of pending IPOs on private-round frequency
You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates — your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.
## Question
Will any of these AI companies (OpenAI, Anthropic, or Mistral AI) have a funding round in July 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
New York Times: [A.I. Companies Shatter Fund-Raising Records, as Boom Accelerates](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/01/technology/ai-companies-fund-raising-records.html) "OpenAI, Anthropic, Waymo and other artificial intelligence companies shattered fund-raising records in the first three months of the year with a $297 billion haul, according to data from Crunchbase, which tracks private investment."
`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "582be5c3cd6943ac", "sheet_id": "86"}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as **Yes** if any of these companies has a funding round listed by TracXn with a date in July 2026: [Mistral AI](https://tracxn.com/d/companies/mistral-ai/__SLZq7rzxLYqqA97jtPwO09jLDeb76RVJVb306OhciWU/funding-and-investors#funding-rounds), [Anthropic](https://tracxn.com/d/companies/anthropic/__SzoxXDMin-NK5tKB7ks8yHr6S9Mz68pjVCzFEcGFZ08/funding-and-investors#funding-rounds), or [OpenAI](https://tracxn.com/d/companies/openai/__kElhSG7uVGeFk1i71Co9-nwFtmtyMVT7f-YHMn4TFBg/funding-and-investors).
## Fine Print
No other resolution source will be used in resolving this question.
## Sub-question decomposition
- (w=0.40) Will OpenAI have a funding round listed by TracXn dated in July 2026? — OpenAI is the most active fundraiser among the three, with massive ongoing capital raises reported through 2025-2026.
- (w=0.35) Will Anthropic have a funding round listed by TracXn dated in July 2026? — Anthropic has been raising very large rounds frequently, making a July 2026 round plausible.
- (w=0.25) Will Mistral AI have a funding round listed by TracXn dated in July 2026? — Mistral raises less frequently and in smaller amounts, so a single-month hit is less likely but still contributes.
Combination rule: **independent_or**
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Poisson base-rate model estimates OpenAI's monthly funding-round listing probability at 0.341.
2. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Poisson base-rate model estimates Anthropic's monthly funding-round listing probability at 0.313.
3. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Poisson base-rate model estimates Mistral AI's monthly funding-round listing probability at 0.118.
4. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Combined OR base-rate estimate for any of the three companies having a July 2026 round is 0.60.
5. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] OpenAI announced $110 billion in funding from strategic partners including Amazon and Nvidia in early 2026, per an IPO-style investor document.
6. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | DATED] OpenAI is in confidential IPO filing phase, sharing an IPO-style prospectus with prospective investors as of March 2026.
7. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] OpenAI is embroiled in the Musk v. Altman trial through April-May 2026 over its for-profit conversion.
8. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Anthropic is valued near $1 trillion and reportedly in confidential IPO filing phase as of June 2026.
9. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 82 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Anthropic faces ongoing US government blacklisting and export-control disputes with the DOD and Trump administration through June 2026.
10. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | DATED] NYT reports AI companies including OpenAI and Anthropic shattered fund-raising records with a $297B haul in Q1 2026.
## Cross-Market Signals
### Polymarket
- "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $8.0M
- "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.84, Volume: $10.2M
- "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.15, Volume: $10.6M
- "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $7.0M
- "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $7.5M
- "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.06, Volume: $567.6K
- "Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.77, Volume: $297.5K
- "Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $298.8K
- "Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $211.6K
- "GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $355.5K
Information gaps:
- No direct evidence of any July 2026 round being announced or listed on TracXn
- No historical frequency data on how often TracXn adds new dated rounds per company per month
- No news on Mistral AI's recent funding activity
- Whether IPO filing phase reduces likelihood of private funding-round listings
Key uncertainties:
- Timing of any strategic/Stargate tranche listings falling in July 2026
- Whether Anthropic's regulatory clashes deter or accelerate a raise
- How TracXn dates and records tranches of large rounds
- Impact of pending IPOs on private-round frequency
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The status quo outcome — what happens if nothing changes from today.
(c) A brief scenario that results in NO.
(d) A brief scenario that results in YES.
## Calibration guidance
- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition — independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.
- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.
- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid >0.97 or <0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological — overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question — move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.
- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or "very recent" claim — especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility — must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.
- **Also provide a holistic estimate** — your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) (d) above — 5-8 sentences total>",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq2": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq3": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>
},
"holistic_p_yes": <float in [0.01, 0.99] — your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition>,
"what_would_change_my_mind": "<1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%>"
}
{
"forecast": {
"combination_logic": "independent_or",
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Poisson base-rate model estimates OpenAI\u0027s monthly funding-round listing probability at 0.341.\n2. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Poisson base-rate model estimates Anthropic\u0027s monthly funding-round listing probability at 0.313.\n3. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Poisson base-rate model estimates Mistral AI\u0027s monthly funding-round listing probability at 0.118.\n4. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Combined OR base-rate estimate for any of the three companies having a July 2026 round is 0.60.\n5. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] OpenAI announced $110 billion in funding from strategic partners including Amazon and Nvidia in early 2026, per an IPO-style investor document.\n6. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | DATED] OpenAI is in confidential IPO filing phase, sharing an IPO-style prospectus with prospective investors as of March 2026.\n7. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] OpenAI is embroiled in the Musk v. Altman trial through April-May 2026 over its for-profit conversion.\n8. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Anthropic is valued near $1 trillion and reportedly in confidential IPO filing phase as of June 2026.\n9. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 82 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Anthropic faces ongoing US government blacklisting and export-control disputes with the DOD and Trump administration through June 2026.\n10. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | DATED] NYT reports AI companies including OpenAI and Anthropic shattered fund-raising records with a $297B haul in Q1 2026.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $8.0M\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.84, Volume: $10.2M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.15, Volume: $10.6M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $7.0M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $7.5M\n- \"Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.06, Volume: $567.6K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.77, Volume: $297.5K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $298.8K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $211.6K\n- \"GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $355.5K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No direct evidence of any July 2026 round being announced or listed on TracXn\n - No historical frequency data on how often TracXn adds new dated rounds per company per month\n - No news on Mistral AI\u0027s recent funding activity\n - Whether IPO filing phase reduces likelihood of private funding-round listings\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Timing of any strategic/Stargate tranche listings falling in July 2026\n - Whether Anthropic\u0027s regulatory clashes deter or accelerate a raise\n - How TracXn dates and records tranches of large rounds\n - Impact of pending IPOs on private-round frequency",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates \u2014 your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.\n\n## Question\nWill any of these AI companies (OpenAI, Anthropic, or Mistral AI) have a funding round in July 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nNew York Times: [A.I. Companies Shatter Fund-Raising Records, as Boom Accelerates](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/01/technology/ai-companies-fund-raising-records.html) \"OpenAI, Anthropic, Waymo and other artificial intelligence companies shattered fund-raising records in the first three months of the year with a $297 billion haul, according to data from Crunchbase, which tracks private investment.\"\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"582be5c3cd6943ac\", \"sheet_id\": \"86\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if any of these companies has a funding round listed by TracXn with a date in July 2026: [Mistral AI](https://tracxn.com/d/companies/mistral-ai/__SLZq7rzxLYqqA97jtPwO09jLDeb76RVJVb306OhciWU/funding-and-investors#funding-rounds), [Anthropic](https://tracxn.com/d/companies/anthropic/__SzoxXDMin-NK5tKB7ks8yHr6S9Mz68pjVCzFEcGFZ08/funding-and-investors#funding-rounds), or [OpenAI](https://tracxn.com/d/companies/openai/__kElhSG7uVGeFk1i71Co9-nwFtmtyMVT7f-YHMn4TFBg/funding-and-investors).\n\n## Fine Print\nNo other resolution source will be used in resolving this question.\n\n## Sub-question decomposition\n- (w=0.40) Will OpenAI have a funding round listed by TracXn dated in July 2026? \u2014 OpenAI is the most active fundraiser among the three, with massive ongoing capital raises reported through 2025-2026.\n- (w=0.35) Will Anthropic have a funding round listed by TracXn dated in July 2026? \u2014 Anthropic has been raising very large rounds frequently, making a July 2026 round plausible.\n- (w=0.25) Will Mistral AI have a funding round listed by TracXn dated in July 2026? \u2014 Mistral raises less frequently and in smaller amounts, so a single-month hit is less likely but still contributes.\n\nCombination rule: **independent_or**\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Poisson base-rate model estimates OpenAI\u0027s monthly funding-round listing probability at 0.341.\n2. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Poisson base-rate model estimates Anthropic\u0027s monthly funding-round listing probability at 0.313.\n3. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Poisson base-rate model estimates Mistral AI\u0027s monthly funding-round listing probability at 0.118.\n4. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Combined OR base-rate estimate for any of the three companies having a July 2026 round is 0.60.\n5. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] OpenAI announced $110 billion in funding from strategic partners including Amazon and Nvidia in early 2026, per an IPO-style investor document.\n6. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | DATED] OpenAI is in confidential IPO filing phase, sharing an IPO-style prospectus with prospective investors as of March 2026.\n7. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] OpenAI is embroiled in the Musk v. Altman trial through April-May 2026 over its for-profit conversion.\n8. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Anthropic is valued near $1 trillion and reportedly in confidential IPO filing phase as of June 2026.\n9. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 82 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Anthropic faces ongoing US government blacklisting and export-control disputes with the DOD and Trump administration through June 2026.\n10. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | DATED] NYT reports AI companies including OpenAI and Anthropic shattered fund-raising records with a $297B haul in Q1 2026.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $8.0M\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.84, Volume: $10.2M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.15, Volume: $10.6M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $7.0M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $7.5M\n- \"Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.06, Volume: $567.6K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.77, Volume: $297.5K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $298.8K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $211.6K\n- \"GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $355.5K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No direct evidence of any July 2026 round being announced or listed on TracXn\n - No historical frequency data on how often TracXn adds new dated rounds per company per month\n - No news on Mistral AI\u0027s recent funding activity\n - Whether IPO filing phase reduces likelihood of private funding-round listings\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Timing of any strategic/Stargate tranche listings falling in July 2026\n - Whether Anthropic\u0027s regulatory clashes deter or accelerate a raise\n - How TracXn dates and records tranches of large rounds\n - Impact of pending IPOs on private-round frequency\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The status quo outcome \u2014 what happens if nothing changes from today.\n (c) A brief scenario that results in NO.\n (d) A brief scenario that results in YES.\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition \u2014 independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.\n- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.\n- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid \u003e0.97 or \u003c0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological \u2014 overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.\n- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question \u2014 move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.\n- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or \"very recent\" claim \u2014 especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility \u2014 must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.\n- **Also provide a holistic estimate** \u2014 your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) (b) (c) (d) above \u2014 5-8 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"sub_question_estimates\": {\n \"sq1\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq2\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq3\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e\n },\n \"holistic_p_yes\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99] \u2014 your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition\u003e,\n \"what_would_change_my_mind\": \"\u003c1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%\u003e\"\n}\n",
"holistic_p_yes": 0.58,
"models": [
"opus"
],
"p_yes": 0.5876992,
"rationale": "(a) The question resolves for a specific single month, July 2026, roughly a few months out. (b) Status quo: all three companies are extremely active fundraisers in a red-hot AI capital environment; TracXn frequently logs new dated rounds and tranches, so a hit in any given month is moderately likely. (c) NO scenario: none of the three has a round dated specifically in July \u2014 a plausible outcome since large raises cluster and IPO-filing phases (OpenAI, Anthropic) could shift activity to public markets, and Mistral raises infrequently. (d) YES scenario: OpenAI\u0027s ongoing Stargate/strategic tranches or Anthropic\u0027s frequent mega-rounds get a TracXn listing dated in July, which given their cadence is quite plausible. Poisson base-rate models give ~0.34, ~0.31, ~0.12 monthly probabilities, combining to ~0.60 via independent OR. I anchor on these base rates, nudging OpenAI and Anthropic slightly for their exceptional 2026 activity while noting IPO phases add uncertainty.",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": 0.34,
"sq2": 0.31,
"sq3": 0.12
},
"what_would_change_my_mind": "Direct evidence of a specific July 2026 round already announced or listed (pushing above 70%), or evidence that IPO-filing phases and quiet periods sharply reduce private-round listings for OpenAI and Anthropic (pushing below 30%)."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "independent_or",
"domain": "tech",
"n_sub_qs": 3,
"n_tools": 3,
"reasoning_approach": "Each company\u0027s probability of a July 2026 funding round is estimated from base rates and recent news; since any single YES resolves the main question YES, an independent_or combination captures the union while blending toward the holistic estimate.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will OpenAI have a funding round listed by TracXn dated in July 2026?",
"rationale": "OpenAI is the most active fundraiser among the three, with massive ongoing capital raises reported through 2025-2026.",
"weight": 0.4
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will Anthropic have a funding round listed by TracXn dated in July 2026?",
"rationale": "Anthropic has been raising very large rounds frequently, making a July 2026 round plausible.",
"weight": 0.35
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will Mistral AI have a funding round listed by TracXn dated in July 2026?",
"rationale": "Mistral raises less frequently and in smaller amounts, so a single-month hit is less likely but still contributes.",
"weight": 0.25
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find any reported or announced funding rounds for OpenAI, Anthropic, and Mistral AI in or around July 2026, including timing, size, and whether TracXn or Crunchbase would list them with a July 2026 date.",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "Will any of these AI companies (OpenAI, Anthropic, or Mistral AI) have a funding round in July 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_days": 120,
"queries": [
"OpenAI new funding round 2026",
"Anthropic funding round 2026",
"Mistral AI raises capital 2026"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\n# Estimate probability of at least one funding round dated in a single month (July 2026)\n# Historical rough frequency of listed funding rounds per year for each company\n# OpenAI: multiple tranches/rounds, ~4-6 events/yr -\u003e monthly hit prob\n# Anthropic: ~4-5 events/yr\n# Mistral: ~1-2 events/yr\nrates = {\u0027OpenAI\u0027:5, \u0027Anthropic\u0027:4.5, \u0027Mistral\u0027:1.5}\nprobs = {}\nfor k,r in rates.items():\n # Poisson: prob of \u003e=1 event in one month\n lam = r/12\n p = 1-np.exp(-lam)\n probs[k]=p\n print(k, round(p,3))\np_any = 1-np.prod([1-p for p in probs.values()])\nprint(\u0027P(any in July 2026):\u0027, round(p_any,3))",
"description": "Base-rate Poisson estimate of monthly funding-round listing probability per company and combined OR."
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-07-07T09:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nNew York Times: [A.I. Companies Shatter Fund-Raising Records, as Boom Accelerates](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/01/technology/ai-companies-fund-raising-records.html) \"OpenAI, Anthropic, Waymo and other artificial intelligence companies shattered fund-raising records in the first three months of the year with a $297 billion haul, according to data from Crunchbase, which tracks private investment.\"\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"582be5c3cd6943ac\", \"sheet_id\": \"86\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if any of these companies has a funding round listed by TracXn with a date in July 2026: [Mistral AI](https://tracxn.com/d/companies/mistral-ai/__SLZq7rzxLYqqA97jtPwO09jLDeb76RVJVb306OhciWU/funding-and-investors#funding-rounds), [Anthropic](https://tracxn.com/d/companies/anthropic/__SzoxXDMin-NK5tKB7ks8yHr6S9Mz68pjVCzFEcGFZ08/funding-and-investors#funding-rounds), or [OpenAI](https://tracxn.com/d/companies/openai/__kElhSG7uVGeFk1i71Co9-nwFtmtyMVT7f-YHMn4TFBg/funding-and-investors).\n\n## Fine Print\nNo other resolution source will be used in resolving this question.",
"question_type": "binary",
"title": "Will any of these AI companies (OpenAI, Anthropic, or Mistral AI) have a funding round in July 2026?"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $8.0M\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.84, Volume: $10.2M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.15, Volume: $10.6M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $7.0M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $7.5M\n- \"Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.06, Volume: $567.6K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.77, Volume: $297.5K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $298.8K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $211.6K\n- \"GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $355.5K",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 3,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 31.44,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "13 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.61,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "30 articles",
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.0,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Base-rate Poisson estimate of monthly funding-round listing ",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "Poisson base-rate model estimates OpenAI\u0027s monthly funding-round listing probability at 0.341.",
"credibility": 55,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Poisson base-rate model estimates Anthropic\u0027s monthly funding-round listing probability at 0.313.",
"credibility": 55,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Poisson base-rate model estimates Mistral AI\u0027s monthly funding-round listing probability at 0.118.",
"credibility": 55,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Combined OR base-rate estimate for any of the three companies having a July 2026 round is 0.60.",
"credibility": 55,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "OpenAI announced $110 billion in funding from strategic partners including Amazon and Nvidia in early 2026, per an IPO-style investor document.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "OpenAI is in confidential IPO filing phase, sharing an IPO-style prospectus with prospective investors as of March 2026.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "OpenAI is embroiled in the Musk v. Altman trial through April-May 2026 over its for-profit conversion.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Anthropic is valued near $1 trillion and reportedly in confidential IPO filing phase as of June 2026.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Anthropic faces ongoing US government blacklisting and export-control disputes with the DOD and Trump administration through June 2026.",
"credibility": 82,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "NYT reports AI companies including OpenAI and Anthropic shattered fund-raising records with a $297B haul in Q1 2026.",
"credibility": 88,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No direct evidence of any July 2026 round being announced or listed on TracXn",
"No historical frequency data on how often TracXn adds new dated rounds per company per month",
"No news on Mistral AI\u0027s recent funding activity",
"Whether IPO filing phase reduces likelihood of private funding-round listings"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Timing of any strategic/Stargate tranche listings falling in July 2026",
"Whether Anthropic\u0027s regulatory clashes deter or accelerate a raise",
"How TracXn dates and records tranches of large rounds",
"Impact of pending IPOs on private-round frequency"
],
"n_evidence": 10
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 14.34,
"plan": 14.07,
"research": 31.44,
"synthesis": 18.62
}
}