Each company independently could trigger a Yes, so we estimate each one's probability of a July 2026 TracXn-dated round from funding frequency base rates and recent news, then combine via independent_or since any single round resolves the question Yes.
## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.83, Volume: $10.0M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $6.8M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.16, Volume: $10.5M - "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.05, Volume: $539.4K - "Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $536.4K - "Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?" → Yes: 1.00, Volume: $262.0K - "Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $223.3K
1. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Poisson base-rate model estimates ~18.8% chance Lovable has a funding round dated July 2026. 2. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Poisson base-rate model estimates ~5.7% chance DeepSeek has a funding round dated July 2026. 3. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Poisson base-rate model estimates ~31.3% chance Perplexity has a funding round dated July 2026. 4. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Combined independent-OR base-rate probability of any of the three companies raising in July 2026 estimated at ~47.4%. 5. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 80 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] CNN sued Perplexity in May 2026 for alleged AI copyright theft, joining NYT and Chicago Tribune suits. 6. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 80 | NEUTRAL | DATED] A federal judge in March 2026 temporarily blocked Perplexity's Comet AI browser from accessing Amazon's site. 7. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | DATED] NYT reports AI companies shattered fundraising records with $297B in Q1 2026, indicating an accelerating funding boom. 8. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 30 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No article-search results reference DeepSeek funding activity in the retrieved dataset. ## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.83, Volume: $10.0M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $6.8M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.16, Volume: $10.5M - "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.05, Volume: $539.4K - "Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $536.4K - "Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?" → Yes: 1.00, Volume: $262.0K - "Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $223.3K Information gaps: - No TracXn historical funding cadence data for each company - No recent news of imminent Perplexity, Lovable, or DeepSeek rounds - No base rate on how often TracXn dates rounds within a specific month - DeepSeek funding history (state/China-backed dynamics) unknown Key uncertainties: - Whether any of the three closes a round specifically in July 2026 - Whether TracXn timestamps rounds by announcement vs close date - Impact of litigation on Perplexity fundraising timing - DeepSeek's willingness/ability to take external funding
You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates — your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.
## Question
Will any of these AI companies (Lovable, DeepSeek, or Perplexity) have a funding round in July 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
New York Times: [A.I. Companies Shatter Fund-Raising Records, as Boom Accelerates](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/01/technology/ai-companies-fund-raising-records.html) "OpenAI, Anthropic, Waymo and other artificial intelligence companies shattered fund-raising records in the first three months of the year with a $297 billion haul, according to data from Crunchbase, which tracks private investment."
`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "7d89887a794cb3b2", "sheet_id": "87"}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as **Yes** if any of these companies has a funding round listed by TracXn with a date in July 2026: [Lovable](https://tracxn.com/d/companies/lovable/__fO6WUvzcx5q3814ietMd3kzGlRirsatzsTnpxmzLuMI/funding-and-investors), [DeepSeek](https://tracxn.com/d/companies/deepseek/__1GrZ3pgoi2O-9tMSfF9ka6Sjybc1lgSSZ_qQqo5k2vE/funding-and-investors), or [Perplexity](https://tracxn.com/d/companies/perplexity/__V2BE-5ihMWJ1hNb2_u1W7Gry25JzPFCBg-iNWi94XI8/funding-and-investors).
## Fine Print
No other resolution source will be used in resolving this question.
## Sub-question decomposition
- (w=0.30) Will Lovable have a funding round listed by TracXn dated July 2026? — Lovable is a fast-growing AI coding startup that has raised frequently; any July round triggers Yes.
- (w=0.20) Will DeepSeek have a funding round listed by TracXn dated July 2026? — DeepSeek is a Chinese AI lab with less frequent, less-tracked private rounds, so lower probability.
- (w=0.50) Will Perplexity have a funding round listed by TracXn dated July 2026? — Perplexity has raised very frequently at rapid intervals; most likely of the three to have a July round.
Combination rule: **independent_or**
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Poisson base-rate model estimates ~18.8% chance Lovable has a funding round dated July 2026.
2. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Poisson base-rate model estimates ~5.7% chance DeepSeek has a funding round dated July 2026.
3. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Poisson base-rate model estimates ~31.3% chance Perplexity has a funding round dated July 2026.
4. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Combined independent-OR base-rate probability of any of the three companies raising in July 2026 estimated at ~47.4%.
5. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 80 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] CNN sued Perplexity in May 2026 for alleged AI copyright theft, joining NYT and Chicago Tribune suits.
6. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 80 | NEUTRAL | DATED] A federal judge in March 2026 temporarily blocked Perplexity's Comet AI browser from accessing Amazon's site.
7. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | DATED] NYT reports AI companies shattered fundraising records with $297B in Q1 2026, indicating an accelerating funding boom.
8. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 30 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No article-search results reference DeepSeek funding activity in the retrieved dataset.
## Cross-Market Signals
### Polymarket
- "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.83, Volume: $10.0M
- "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $6.8M
- "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.16, Volume: $10.5M
- "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.05, Volume: $539.4K
- "Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $536.4K
- "Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?" → Yes: 1.00, Volume: $262.0K
- "Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $223.3K
Information gaps:
- No TracXn historical funding cadence data for each company
- No recent news of imminent Perplexity, Lovable, or DeepSeek rounds
- No base rate on how often TracXn dates rounds within a specific month
- DeepSeek funding history (state/China-backed dynamics) unknown
Key uncertainties:
- Whether any of the three closes a round specifically in July 2026
- Whether TracXn timestamps rounds by announcement vs close date
- Impact of litigation on Perplexity fundraising timing
- DeepSeek's willingness/ability to take external funding
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The status quo outcome — what happens if nothing changes from today.
(c) A brief scenario that results in NO.
(d) A brief scenario that results in YES.
## Calibration guidance
- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition — independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.
- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.
- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid >0.97 or <0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological — overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question — move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.
- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or "very recent" claim — especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility — must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.
- **Also provide a holistic estimate** — your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) (d) above — 5-8 sentences total>",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq2": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq3": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>
},
"holistic_p_yes": <float in [0.01, 0.99] — your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition>,
"what_would_change_my_mind": "<1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%>"
}
{
"forecast": {
"combination_logic": "independent_or",
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Poisson base-rate model estimates ~18.8% chance Lovable has a funding round dated July 2026.\n2. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Poisson base-rate model estimates ~5.7% chance DeepSeek has a funding round dated July 2026.\n3. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Poisson base-rate model estimates ~31.3% chance Perplexity has a funding round dated July 2026.\n4. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Combined independent-OR base-rate probability of any of the three companies raising in July 2026 estimated at ~47.4%.\n5. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 80 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] CNN sued Perplexity in May 2026 for alleged AI copyright theft, joining NYT and Chicago Tribune suits.\n6. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 80 | NEUTRAL | DATED] A federal judge in March 2026 temporarily blocked Perplexity\u0027s Comet AI browser from accessing Amazon\u0027s site.\n7. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | DATED] NYT reports AI companies shattered fundraising records with $297B in Q1 2026, indicating an accelerating funding boom.\n8. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 30 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No article-search results reference DeepSeek funding activity in the retrieved dataset.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.83, Volume: $10.0M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $6.8M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.16, Volume: $10.5M\n- \"Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.05, Volume: $539.4K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $536.4K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post \u003c40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 1.00, Volume: $262.0K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $223.3K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No TracXn historical funding cadence data for each company\n - No recent news of imminent Perplexity, Lovable, or DeepSeek rounds\n - No base rate on how often TracXn dates rounds within a specific month\n - DeepSeek funding history (state/China-backed dynamics) unknown\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether any of the three closes a round specifically in July 2026\n - Whether TracXn timestamps rounds by announcement vs close date\n - Impact of litigation on Perplexity fundraising timing\n - DeepSeek\u0027s willingness/ability to take external funding",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates \u2014 your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.\n\n## Question\nWill any of these AI companies (Lovable, DeepSeek, or Perplexity) have a funding round in July 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nNew York Times: [A.I. Companies Shatter Fund-Raising Records, as Boom Accelerates](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/01/technology/ai-companies-fund-raising-records.html) \"OpenAI, Anthropic, Waymo and other artificial intelligence companies shattered fund-raising records in the first three months of the year with a $297 billion haul, according to data from Crunchbase, which tracks private investment.\"\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"7d89887a794cb3b2\", \"sheet_id\": \"87\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if any of these companies has a funding round listed by TracXn with a date in July 2026: [Lovable](https://tracxn.com/d/companies/lovable/__fO6WUvzcx5q3814ietMd3kzGlRirsatzsTnpxmzLuMI/funding-and-investors), [DeepSeek](https://tracxn.com/d/companies/deepseek/__1GrZ3pgoi2O-9tMSfF9ka6Sjybc1lgSSZ_qQqo5k2vE/funding-and-investors), or [Perplexity](https://tracxn.com/d/companies/perplexity/__V2BE-5ihMWJ1hNb2_u1W7Gry25JzPFCBg-iNWi94XI8/funding-and-investors).\n\n## Fine Print\nNo other resolution source will be used in resolving this question.\n\n## Sub-question decomposition\n- (w=0.30) Will Lovable have a funding round listed by TracXn dated July 2026? \u2014 Lovable is a fast-growing AI coding startup that has raised frequently; any July round triggers Yes.\n- (w=0.20) Will DeepSeek have a funding round listed by TracXn dated July 2026? \u2014 DeepSeek is a Chinese AI lab with less frequent, less-tracked private rounds, so lower probability.\n- (w=0.50) Will Perplexity have a funding round listed by TracXn dated July 2026? \u2014 Perplexity has raised very frequently at rapid intervals; most likely of the three to have a July round.\n\nCombination rule: **independent_or**\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Poisson base-rate model estimates ~18.8% chance Lovable has a funding round dated July 2026.\n2. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Poisson base-rate model estimates ~5.7% chance DeepSeek has a funding round dated July 2026.\n3. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Poisson base-rate model estimates ~31.3% chance Perplexity has a funding round dated July 2026.\n4. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 45 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Combined independent-OR base-rate probability of any of the three companies raising in July 2026 estimated at ~47.4%.\n5. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 80 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] CNN sued Perplexity in May 2026 for alleged AI copyright theft, joining NYT and Chicago Tribune suits.\n6. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 80 | NEUTRAL | DATED] A federal judge in March 2026 temporarily blocked Perplexity\u0027s Comet AI browser from accessing Amazon\u0027s site.\n7. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | DATED] NYT reports AI companies shattered fundraising records with $297B in Q1 2026, indicating an accelerating funding boom.\n8. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 30 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No article-search results reference DeepSeek funding activity in the retrieved dataset.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.83, Volume: $10.0M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $6.8M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.16, Volume: $10.5M\n- \"Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.05, Volume: $539.4K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $536.4K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post \u003c40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 1.00, Volume: $262.0K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $223.3K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No TracXn historical funding cadence data for each company\n - No recent news of imminent Perplexity, Lovable, or DeepSeek rounds\n - No base rate on how often TracXn dates rounds within a specific month\n - DeepSeek funding history (state/China-backed dynamics) unknown\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether any of the three closes a round specifically in July 2026\n - Whether TracXn timestamps rounds by announcement vs close date\n - Impact of litigation on Perplexity fundraising timing\n - DeepSeek\u0027s willingness/ability to take external funding\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The status quo outcome \u2014 what happens if nothing changes from today.\n (c) A brief scenario that results in NO.\n (d) A brief scenario that results in YES.\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition \u2014 independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.\n- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.\n- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid \u003e0.97 or \u003c0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological \u2014 overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.\n- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question \u2014 move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.\n- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or \"very recent\" claim \u2014 especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility \u2014 must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.\n- **Also provide a holistic estimate** \u2014 your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) (b) (c) (d) above \u2014 5-8 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"sub_question_estimates\": {\n \"sq1\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq2\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq3\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e\n },\n \"holistic_p_yes\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99] \u2014 your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition\u003e,\n \"what_would_change_my_mind\": \"\u003c1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%\u003e\"\n}\n",
"holistic_p_yes": 0.46,
"models": [
"opus"
],
"p_yes": 0.46325920000000004,
"rationale": "(a) The question resolves for events in July 2026, roughly 3 months out from the April 2026 context date. (b) Status quo: AI funding is booming ($297B Q1 2026), and these companies raise frequently, but any single specific month is still a coin-flip-or-less for each individual company. (c) NO scenario: none of the three happens to close/announce a round specifically in July 2026 \u2014 rounds cluster in other months, DeepSeek stays state-funded and opaque, and litigation slightly slows Perplexity\u0027s timing. (d) YES scenario: Perplexity, given its rapid ~quarterly cadence, or fast-growing Lovable announces a new round in July, which TracXn dates within that month. The Poisson base-rate models give ~18.8% (Lovable), ~5.7% (DeepSeek), and ~31.3% (Perplexity), combining via independent-OR to ~47%. I\u0027ll anchor closely to these credible base-rate estimates with minor adjustments \u2014 Perplexity\u0027s frequent cadence and the funding boom slightly support it, while litigation adds mild uncertainty.",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": 0.18,
"sq2": 0.06,
"sq3": 0.31
},
"what_would_change_my_mind": "News of an imminent or announced Perplexity/Lovable round timed for July 2026 would push above 70%; evidence that TracXn dates rounds by close (not announcement) and that all three have recently completed rounds (reducing near-term likelihood) would push below 30%."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "independent_or",
"domain": "tech",
"n_sub_qs": 3,
"n_tools": 3,
"reasoning_approach": "Each company independently could trigger a Yes, so we estimate each one\u0027s probability of a July 2026 TracXn-dated round from funding frequency base rates and recent news, then combine via independent_or since any single round resolves the question Yes.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will Lovable have a funding round listed by TracXn dated July 2026?",
"rationale": "Lovable is a fast-growing AI coding startup that has raised frequently; any July round triggers Yes.",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will DeepSeek have a funding round listed by TracXn dated July 2026?",
"rationale": "DeepSeek is a Chinese AI lab with less frequent, less-tracked private rounds, so lower probability.",
"weight": 0.2
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will Perplexity have a funding round listed by TracXn dated July 2026?",
"rationale": "Perplexity has raised very frequently at rapid intervals; most likely of the three to have a July round.",
"weight": 0.5
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find the most recent funding rounds and fundraising history and timing for Lovable (AI coding), DeepSeek (Chinese AI lab), and Perplexity AI. Identify how frequently each raises, dates of recent rounds, and any reports of a round in mid-2026 or July 2026.",
"max_searches": 5,
"question_title": "Will Lovable, DeepSeek, or Perplexity have a funding round in July 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_days": 180,
"queries": [
"Perplexity AI funding round 2026",
"Lovable AI startup raises funding 2026",
"DeepSeek funding investment round 2026"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\n# Estimate probability of a funding round dated specifically in a single month (July 2026)\n# based on frequency of rounds per year for each company.\n# Perplexity: ~4-5 rounds/year historically -\u003e per-month prob\n# Lovable: ~2-3 rounds/year\n# DeepSeek: ~0.5-1 rounds/year (less tracked)\nrates = {\u0027Perplexity\u0027: 4.5, \u0027Lovable\u0027: 2.5, \u0027DeepSeek\u0027: 0.7}\nfor name, r in rates.items():\n p_month = 1 - np.exp(-r/12)\n print(name, round(p_month,3))\np_any = 1 - np.prod([np.exp(-r/12) for r in rates.values()])\nprint(\u0027P(any)\u0027, round(p_any,3))",
"description": "Poisson base-rate estimate of a funding round landing in July 2026 per company and combined."
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-07-06T21:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nNew York Times: [A.I. Companies Shatter Fund-Raising Records, as Boom Accelerates](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/01/technology/ai-companies-fund-raising-records.html) \"OpenAI, Anthropic, Waymo and other artificial intelligence companies shattered fund-raising records in the first three months of the year with a $297 billion haul, according to data from Crunchbase, which tracks private investment.\"\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"7d89887a794cb3b2\", \"sheet_id\": \"87\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if any of these companies has a funding round listed by TracXn with a date in July 2026: [Lovable](https://tracxn.com/d/companies/lovable/__fO6WUvzcx5q3814ietMd3kzGlRirsatzsTnpxmzLuMI/funding-and-investors), [DeepSeek](https://tracxn.com/d/companies/deepseek/__1GrZ3pgoi2O-9tMSfF9ka6Sjybc1lgSSZ_qQqo5k2vE/funding-and-investors), or [Perplexity](https://tracxn.com/d/companies/perplexity/__V2BE-5ihMWJ1hNb2_u1W7Gry25JzPFCBg-iNWi94XI8/funding-and-investors).\n\n## Fine Print\nNo other resolution source will be used in resolving this question.",
"question_type": "binary",
"title": "Will any of these AI companies (Lovable, DeepSeek, or Perplexity) have a funding round in July 2026?"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.83, Volume: $10.0M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $6.8M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.16, Volume: $10.5M\n- \"Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.05, Volume: $539.4K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $536.4K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post \u003c40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 1.00, Volume: $262.0K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $223.3K",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 3,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 37.05,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "17 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.7,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "16 articles",
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.0,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Poisson base-rate estimate of a funding round landing in Jul",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "Poisson base-rate model estimates ~18.8% chance Lovable has a funding round dated July 2026.",
"credibility": 45,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Poisson base-rate model estimates ~5.7% chance DeepSeek has a funding round dated July 2026.",
"credibility": 45,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Poisson base-rate model estimates ~31.3% chance Perplexity has a funding round dated July 2026.",
"credibility": 45,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Combined independent-OR base-rate probability of any of the three companies raising in July 2026 estimated at ~47.4%.",
"credibility": 45,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "CNN sued Perplexity in May 2026 for alleged AI copyright theft, joining NYT and Chicago Tribune suits.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "A federal judge in March 2026 temporarily blocked Perplexity\u0027s Comet AI browser from accessing Amazon\u0027s site.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "NYT reports AI companies shattered fundraising records with $297B in Q1 2026, indicating an accelerating funding boom.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "No article-search results reference DeepSeek funding activity in the retrieved dataset.",
"credibility": 30,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No TracXn historical funding cadence data for each company",
"No recent news of imminent Perplexity, Lovable, or DeepSeek rounds",
"No base rate on how often TracXn dates rounds within a specific month",
"DeepSeek funding history (state/China-backed dynamics) unknown"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether any of the three closes a round specifically in July 2026",
"Whether TracXn timestamps rounds by announcement vs close date",
"Impact of litigation on Perplexity fundraising timing",
"DeepSeek\u0027s willingness/ability to take external funding"
],
"n_evidence": 8
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 13.52,
"plan": 14.83,
"research": 37.05,
"synthesis": 15.72
}
}