Soros almost certainly remains #1 (sq1 high), but the binding constraint is the thin 3.1:1 ratio (sq2/sq3); we weight the ratio-threshold factors heavily and blend them, since staying first and maintaining the margin are correlated through the same donation dynamics.
## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $409.2K - "Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?" → Yes: 0.55, Volume: $174.8K - "Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $135.1K
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | DATED] Washington Post reported June 25, 2026 that Soros ($102M) is the 2026 cycle's largest overall donor and #1 Democratic donor. 2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | DATED] Second-place Democratic donor Majority Forward stood at $33M as of late June, far behind Soros's $102M. 3. [sq2 | code_execution | STRONG cred 88 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Current Soros-to-second ratio is 3.091, only marginally above the 3:1 threshold. 4. [sq3 | code_execution | STRONG cred 88 | DOWN | DATED] Second place needs only ~$1M more (reaching $34M) to break the 3:1 margin, indicating a very thin buffer. 5. [sq3 | web_search | WEAK cred 55 | DOWN | DATED] House Majority Forward has donated over $38M to a Virginia redistricting group, though this may reflect a different/broader entity than the WaPo leaderboard's $33M figure. 6. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] Soros family gave significantly more this cycle ($102M) than the ~$67M given in the full 2024 cycle, suggesting continued heavy giving. 7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 82 | UP | DATED] Democratic-leaning donors gave $290M total in H1 2026 versus $880M Republican, indicating a smaller Democratic donor field where Soros dominates. ## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $409.2K - "Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?" → Yes: 0.55, Volume: $174.8K - "Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $135.1K Information gaps: - No data after June 29, 2026; unknown how totals shifted July into Aug 1 deadline - Whether WaPo leaderboard counts Majority Forward's $38M redistricting gift toward its total - Base rate for how fast second-place Democratic donors accumulate in July - Whether Soros's total will increase further (widening the margin) Key uncertainties: - Whether second place crosses the $34M breakpoint - Classification/consolidation of Majority Forward vs House Majority Forward figures - Late-July FEC-reported surges from other Democratic donors - WaPo methodology updates between reporting dates
You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates — your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.
## Question
Will George Soros have at least a 3-to-1 lead over the second place Democratic donor on the Washington Post leaderboard as of August 1, 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
*See also the companion question:* [*Who will be the largest Republican donor in the 2026 cycle, as of August 1, 2026?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44362/who-will-be-the-largest-republican-donor-in-the-2026-cycle-as-of-aug-1-2026/)
***
The Washington Post, [Meet the megadonors pouring more than \$1.3 billion into the 2026 election](https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2026/06/25/these-are-biggest-individual-donors-2026-election-cycle/): 
> The top donors in American politics have poured more than \$1.3 billion so far this cycle into influencing the country’s politics, according to a Washington Post analysis of Federal Election Commission data.
> The donors lean Republican, and cash could prove critical for the GOP to maintain control of Congress in November. In the first half of 2026, Republican-leaning donors gave \$880 million, compared with \$290 million from Democratic-leaning givers and \$200 million from bipartisan and special interest groups.
> But most of the money, regardless of affiliation, was given to super PACs that can legally accept unlimited sums.
According to the Post, as of June 29, 2026 the highest Democratic donors were: 
1. George Soros: \$102 million.
2. Majority Forward: \$33 million.
`{"format": "metac_reveal_and_close_in_period", "info": {"post_id": 44363, "question_id": 44373}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as **Yes** if the #1 Democratic-aligned donor as of August 1, 2026 is George Soros, according to the Washington Post at its Top 50 donors [leaderboard](https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2026/06/25/these-are-biggest-individual-donors-2026-election-cycle/), and his listed donation total is at least three times the amount of the next highest Democratic-aligned donor.
## Fine Print
This question's information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44363) which opened on 2026-06-30 12:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.
## Sub-question decomposition
- (w=0.40) Will George Soros still be the #1 Democratic-aligned donor on the Washington Post leaderboard as of August 1, 2026? — Soros must remain in first place among Democratic donors for the question to resolve Yes; as of June 29 he led with $102
- (w=0.40) Will Soros's donation total be at least 3x the second-place Democratic donor (i.e. ratio stays above 3:1) as of August 1, 2026? — This is the core threshold; the June 29 ratio was ~3.1:1 ($102M/$33M), so it is right at the boundary and could tip eith
- (w=0.20) Will the second-place Democratic donor's total stay below ~$34M (avoiding erosion of the 3:1 margin) as of August 1, 2026? — The margin is thin; a modest surge by Majority Forward or another donor above ~$34M would break the 3:1 lead even if Sor
Combination rule: **weighted_average**
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | DATED] Washington Post reported June 25, 2026 that Soros ($102M) is the 2026 cycle's largest overall donor and #1 Democratic donor.
2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | DATED] Second-place Democratic donor Majority Forward stood at $33M as of late June, far behind Soros's $102M.
3. [sq2 | code_execution | STRONG cred 88 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Current Soros-to-second ratio is 3.091, only marginally above the 3:1 threshold.
4. [sq3 | code_execution | STRONG cred 88 | DOWN | DATED] Second place needs only ~$1M more (reaching $34M) to break the 3:1 margin, indicating a very thin buffer.
5. [sq3 | web_search | WEAK cred 55 | DOWN | DATED] House Majority Forward has donated over $38M to a Virginia redistricting group, though this may reflect a different/broader entity than the WaPo leaderboard's $33M figure.
6. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] Soros family gave significantly more this cycle ($102M) than the ~$67M given in the full 2024 cycle, suggesting continued heavy giving.
7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 82 | UP | DATED] Democratic-leaning donors gave $290M total in H1 2026 versus $880M Republican, indicating a smaller Democratic donor field where Soros dominates.
## Cross-Market Signals
### Polymarket
- "Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $409.2K
- "Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?" → Yes: 0.55, Volume: $174.8K
- "Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $135.1K
Information gaps:
- No data after June 29, 2026; unknown how totals shifted July into Aug 1 deadline
- Whether WaPo leaderboard counts Majority Forward's $38M redistricting gift toward its total
- Base rate for how fast second-place Democratic donors accumulate in July
- Whether Soros's total will increase further (widening the margin)
Key uncertainties:
- Whether second place crosses the $34M breakpoint
- Classification/consolidation of Majority Forward vs House Majority Forward figures
- Late-July FEC-reported surges from other Democratic donors
- WaPo methodology updates between reporting dates
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The status quo outcome — what happens if nothing changes from today.
(c) A brief scenario that results in NO.
(d) A brief scenario that results in YES.
## Calibration guidance
- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition — independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.
- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.
- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid >0.97 or <0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological — overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question — move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.
- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or "very recent" claim — especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility — must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.
- **Also provide a holistic estimate** — your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) (d) above — 5-8 sentences total>",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq2": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq3": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>
},
"holistic_p_yes": <float in [0.01, 0.99] — your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition>,
"what_would_change_my_mind": "<1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%>"
}
{
"forecast": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | DATED] Washington Post reported June 25, 2026 that Soros ($102M) is the 2026 cycle\u0027s largest overall donor and #1 Democratic donor.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | DATED] Second-place Democratic donor Majority Forward stood at $33M as of late June, far behind Soros\u0027s $102M.\n3. [sq2 | code_execution | STRONG cred 88 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Current Soros-to-second ratio is 3.091, only marginally above the 3:1 threshold.\n4. [sq3 | code_execution | STRONG cred 88 | DOWN | DATED] Second place needs only ~$1M more (reaching $34M) to break the 3:1 margin, indicating a very thin buffer.\n5. [sq3 | web_search | WEAK cred 55 | DOWN | DATED] House Majority Forward has donated over $38M to a Virginia redistricting group, though this may reflect a different/broader entity than the WaPo leaderboard\u0027s $33M figure.\n6. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] Soros family gave significantly more this cycle ($102M) than the ~$67M given in the full 2024 cycle, suggesting continued heavy giving.\n7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 82 | UP | DATED] Democratic-leaning donors gave $290M total in H1 2026 versus $880M Republican, indicating a smaller Democratic donor field where Soros dominates.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $409.2K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post \u003c40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.55, Volume: $174.8K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $135.1K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No data after June 29, 2026; unknown how totals shifted July into Aug 1 deadline\n - Whether WaPo leaderboard counts Majority Forward\u0027s $38M redistricting gift toward its total\n - Base rate for how fast second-place Democratic donors accumulate in July\n - Whether Soros\u0027s total will increase further (widening the margin)\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether second place crosses the $34M breakpoint\n - Classification/consolidation of Majority Forward vs House Majority Forward figures\n - Late-July FEC-reported surges from other Democratic donors\n - WaPo methodology updates between reporting dates",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates \u2014 your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.\n\n## Question\nWill George Soros have at least a 3-to-1 lead over the second place Democratic donor on the Washington Post leaderboard as of August 1, 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\n*See also the companion question:* [*Who will be the largest Republican donor in the 2026 cycle, as of August 1, 2026?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44362/who-will-be-the-largest-republican-donor-in-the-2026-cycle-as-of-aug-1-2026/)\n\n***\n\nThe Washington Post, [Meet the megadonors pouring more than \\$1.3 billion into the 2026 election](https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2026/06/25/these-are-biggest-individual-donors-2026-election-cycle/):\u0026#x20;\n\n\u003e The top donors in American politics have poured more than \\$1.3 billion so far this cycle into influencing the country\u2019s politics, according to a Washington Post analysis of Federal Election Commission data.\n\n\u003e The donors lean Republican, and cash could prove critical for the GOP to maintain control of Congress in November. In the first half of 2026, Republican-leaning donors gave \\$880 million, compared with \\$290 million from Democratic-leaning givers and \\$200 million from bipartisan and special interest groups.\n\n\u003e But most of the money, regardless of affiliation, was given to super PACs that can legally accept unlimited sums.\n\nAccording to the Post, as of June 29, 2026 the highest Democratic donors were:\u0026#x20;\n\n1. George Soros: \\$102 million.\n2. Majority Forward: \\$33 million.\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 44363, \"question_id\": 44373}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if the #1 Democratic-aligned donor as of August 1, 2026 is George Soros, according to the Washington Post at its Top 50 donors [leaderboard](https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2026/06/25/these-are-biggest-individual-donors-2026-election-cycle/), and his listed donation total is at least three times the amount of the next highest Democratic-aligned donor.\n\n## Fine Print\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44363) which opened on 2026-06-30 12:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.\n\n## Sub-question decomposition\n- (w=0.40) Will George Soros still be the #1 Democratic-aligned donor on the Washington Post leaderboard as of August 1, 2026? \u2014 Soros must remain in first place among Democratic donors for the question to resolve Yes; as of June 29 he led with $102\n- (w=0.40) Will Soros\u0027s donation total be at least 3x the second-place Democratic donor (i.e. ratio stays above 3:1) as of August 1, 2026? \u2014 This is the core threshold; the June 29 ratio was ~3.1:1 ($102M/$33M), so it is right at the boundary and could tip eith\n- (w=0.20) Will the second-place Democratic donor\u0027s total stay below ~$34M (avoiding erosion of the 3:1 margin) as of August 1, 2026? \u2014 The margin is thin; a modest surge by Majority Forward or another donor above ~$34M would break the 3:1 lead even if Sor\n\nCombination rule: **weighted_average**\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | DATED] Washington Post reported June 25, 2026 that Soros ($102M) is the 2026 cycle\u0027s largest overall donor and #1 Democratic donor.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | DATED] Second-place Democratic donor Majority Forward stood at $33M as of late June, far behind Soros\u0027s $102M.\n3. [sq2 | code_execution | STRONG cred 88 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Current Soros-to-second ratio is 3.091, only marginally above the 3:1 threshold.\n4. [sq3 | code_execution | STRONG cred 88 | DOWN | DATED] Second place needs only ~$1M more (reaching $34M) to break the 3:1 margin, indicating a very thin buffer.\n5. [sq3 | web_search | WEAK cred 55 | DOWN | DATED] House Majority Forward has donated over $38M to a Virginia redistricting group, though this may reflect a different/broader entity than the WaPo leaderboard\u0027s $33M figure.\n6. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] Soros family gave significantly more this cycle ($102M) than the ~$67M given in the full 2024 cycle, suggesting continued heavy giving.\n7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 82 | UP | DATED] Democratic-leaning donors gave $290M total in H1 2026 versus $880M Republican, indicating a smaller Democratic donor field where Soros dominates.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $409.2K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post \u003c40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.55, Volume: $174.8K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $135.1K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No data after June 29, 2026; unknown how totals shifted July into Aug 1 deadline\n - Whether WaPo leaderboard counts Majority Forward\u0027s $38M redistricting gift toward its total\n - Base rate for how fast second-place Democratic donors accumulate in July\n - Whether Soros\u0027s total will increase further (widening the margin)\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether second place crosses the $34M breakpoint\n - Classification/consolidation of Majority Forward vs House Majority Forward figures\n - Late-July FEC-reported surges from other Democratic donors\n - WaPo methodology updates between reporting dates\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The status quo outcome \u2014 what happens if nothing changes from today.\n (c) A brief scenario that results in NO.\n (d) A brief scenario that results in YES.\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition \u2014 independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.\n- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.\n- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid \u003e0.97 or \u003c0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological \u2014 overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.\n- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question \u2014 move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.\n- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or \"very recent\" claim \u2014 especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility \u2014 must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.\n- **Also provide a holistic estimate** \u2014 your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) (b) (c) (d) above \u2014 5-8 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"sub_question_estimates\": {\n \"sq1\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq2\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq3\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e\n },\n \"holistic_p_yes\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99] \u2014 your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition\u003e,\n \"what_would_change_my_mind\": \"\u003c1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%\u003e\"\n}\n",
"holistic_p_yes": 0.55,
"models": [
"opus"
],
"p_yes": 0.6460000000000001,
"rationale": "(a) About one month remains (June 29/30 to August 1, 2026). (b) Status quo: Soros leads at $102M vs. second-place Majority Forward at $33M, a ratio of ~3.09:1 \u2014 just barely above the 3:1 threshold. (c) NO scenario: the second-place Democratic donor (Majority Forward or another, possibly boosted by the ~$38M redistricting gift being counted) surges past ~$34M while Soros\u0027s total stays flat, eroding the thin margin below 3:1. (d) YES scenario: Soros continues heavy giving (already exceeding his full 2024 cycle), widening his lead, while the fragmented, smaller Democratic donor field means no single second-place donor closes the gap. Soros remaining #1 is nearly certain given his dominant lead, but the 3:1 ratio sits right on the boundary and only needs a ~$1M shift in second place to break, making the core threshold a coin-flip-plus.",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": 0.95,
"sq2": 0.55,
"sq3": 0.55
},
"what_would_change_my_mind": "Confirmation that Soros added significant new donations in July (widening the margin) would push me above 70%; evidence that WaPo counts Majority Forward\u0027s ~$38M redistricting gift or that another Democratic donor surged past $34M would push me below 30%."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "politics",
"n_sub_qs": 3,
"n_tools": 3,
"reasoning_approach": "Soros almost certainly remains #1 (sq1 high), but the binding constraint is the thin 3.1:1 ratio (sq2/sq3); we weight the ratio-threshold factors heavily and blend them, since staying first and maintaining the margin are correlated through the same donation dynamics.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will George Soros still be the #1 Democratic-aligned donor on the Washington Post leaderboard as of August 1, 2026?",
"rationale": "Soros must remain in first place among Democratic donors for the question to resolve Yes; as of June 29 he led with $102M vs $33M, a commanding lead.",
"weight": 0.4
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will Soros\u0027s donation total be at least 3x the second-place Democratic donor (i.e. ratio stays above 3:1) as of August 1, 2026?",
"rationale": "This is the core threshold; the June 29 ratio was ~3.1:1 ($102M/$33M), so it is right at the boundary and could tip either way with new donations.",
"weight": 0.4
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will the second-place Democratic donor\u0027s total stay below ~$34M (avoiding erosion of the 3:1 margin) as of August 1, 2026?",
"rationale": "The margin is thin; a modest surge by Majority Forward or another donor above ~$34M would break the 3:1 lead even if Soros stays first.",
"weight": 0.2
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"Washington Post 2026 megadonors leaderboard George Soros",
"top Democratic donors 2026 election cycle Soros Majority Forward",
"Soros 2026 political donation total FEC"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find the latest Washington Post Top 50 individual donors leaderboard for the 2026 election cycle. Determine whether George Soros is the #1 Democratic-aligned donor and his current dollar total, and identify the second-place Democratic-aligned donor and their total. Assess whether Soros\u0027s total is at least 3x the second place donor. As of June 29 2026 Soros had $102M and Majority Forward had $33M.",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "Will George Soros have at least a 3-to-1 lead over the second place Democratic donor on the Washington Post leaderboard as of August 1, 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"code": "soros=102.0\nsecond=33.0\nratio=soros/second\nprint(\u0027current ratio\u0027, round(ratio,3))\nprint(\u0027needed second to break 3:1\u0027, round(soros/3,2))\nprint(\u0027margin room in second place ($M):\u0027, round(soros/3-second,2))",
"description": "Compute current Soros-to-second ratio and how much room exists before the 3:1 lead breaks."
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-07-06T12:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\n*See also the companion question:* [*Who will be the largest Republican donor in the 2026 cycle, as of August 1, 2026?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44362/who-will-be-the-largest-republican-donor-in-the-2026-cycle-as-of-aug-1-2026/)\n\n***\n\nThe Washington Post, [Meet the megadonors pouring more than \\$1.3 billion into the 2026 election](https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2026/06/25/these-are-biggest-individual-donors-2026-election-cycle/):\u0026#x20;\n\n\u003e The top donors in American politics have poured more than \\$1.3 billion so far this cycle into influencing the country\u2019s politics, according to a Washington Post analysis of Federal Election Commission data.\n\n\u003e The donors lean Republican, and cash could prove critical for the GOP to maintain control of Congress in November. In the first half of 2026, Republican-leaning donors gave \\$880 million, compared with \\$290 million from Democratic-leaning givers and \\$200 million from bipartisan and special interest groups.\n\n\u003e But most of the money, regardless of affiliation, was given to super PACs that can legally accept unlimited sums.\n\nAccording to the Post, as of June 29, 2026 the highest Democratic donors were:\u0026#x20;\n\n1. George Soros: \\$102 million.\n2. Majority Forward: \\$33 million.\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 44363, \"question_id\": 44373}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if the #1 Democratic-aligned donor as of August 1, 2026 is George Soros, according to the Washington Post at its Top 50 donors [leaderboard](https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2026/06/25/these-are-biggest-individual-donors-2026-election-cycle/), and his listed donation total is at least three times the amount of the next highest Democratic-aligned donor.\n\n## Fine Print\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44363) which opened on 2026-06-30 12:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.",
"question_type": "binary",
"title": "Will George Soros have at least a 3-to-1 lead over the second place Democratic donor on the Washington Post leaderboard as of August 1, 2026?"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $409.2K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post \u003c40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.55, Volume: $174.8K\n- \"Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $135.1K",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 3,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 57.88,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "0 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 39.37,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "10 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.11,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Compute current Soros-to-second ratio and how much room exis",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "Washington Post reported June 25, 2026 that Soros ($102M) is the 2026 cycle\u0027s largest overall donor and #1 Democratic donor.",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Second-place Democratic donor Majority Forward stood at $33M as of late June, far behind Soros\u0027s $102M.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Current Soros-to-second ratio is 3.091, only marginally above the 3:1 threshold.",
"credibility": 88,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Second place needs only ~$1M more (reaching $34M) to break the 3:1 margin, indicating a very thin buffer.",
"credibility": 88,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "House Majority Forward has donated over $38M to a Virginia redistricting group, though this may reflect a different/broader entity than the WaPo leaderboard\u0027s $33M figure.",
"credibility": 55,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Soros family gave significantly more this cycle ($102M) than the ~$67M given in the full 2024 cycle, suggesting continued heavy giving.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Democratic-leaning donors gave $290M total in H1 2026 versus $880M Republican, indicating a smaller Democratic donor field where Soros dominates.",
"credibility": 82,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No data after June 29, 2026; unknown how totals shifted July into Aug 1 deadline",
"Whether WaPo leaderboard counts Majority Forward\u0027s $38M redistricting gift toward its total",
"Base rate for how fast second-place Democratic donors accumulate in July",
"Whether Soros\u0027s total will increase further (widening the margin)"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether second place crosses the $34M breakpoint",
"Classification/consolidation of Majority Forward vs House Majority Forward figures",
"Late-July FEC-reported surges from other Democratic donors",
"WaPo methodology updates between reporting dates"
],
"n_evidence": 7
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 22.13,
"plan": 22.49,
"research": 57.88,
"synthesis": 14.95
}
}