The question resolves Yes if EITHER West Nile Virus OR Mpox clade 1b is detected, so we combine the two sub-question probabilities with independent_or; WNV's strong summer seasonality makes it the dominant path to a near-certain Yes.
## Cross-Market Signals ### No signal found
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | UP | DATED] WastewaterSCAN began prospective West Nile Virus monitoring in mid-October 2025, adding it to the pathogen panel. 2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | UP | RECENT] West Nile Virus recorded a positive detection in May 2026, the first seasonal signal ahead of mosquito season. 3. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | DATED] WNV is most commonly spread during mosquito season, typically June through October, peaking in summer. 4. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | DATED] From October 2025 through April 2026, WNV was nationally in the 'NOT-DETECTED' category due to no recent detections. 5. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 75 | UP | DATED] A single WNV positive was detected in Iowa in December 2025, though national status remained not-detected. 6. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] First U.S. wastewater detection of Clade 1 not linked to a known case occurred in Washington State in September 2025. 7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] California confirmed Clade 1b infections in three unrelated persons in October 2025, suggesting community transmission. 8. [sq2 | web_search | WEAK cred 40 | DOWN | RECENT] No evidence found that WastewaterSCAN specifically distinguishes and tracks Mpox clade 1b as a dashboard target. ## Cross-Market Signals ### No signal found Information gaps: - Whether WastewaterSCAN dashboard reports clade-specific Mpox 1b vs generic Mpox - Historical base rate of WNV wastewater positives during July/August peak - Current (June-July 2026) WNV detection status on dashboard - Whether WNV detection triggers dashboard 'positive' resolution threshold Key uncertainties: - Whether WNV summer seasonality produces a detection by Aug 1, 2026 - Whether Mpox clade 1b is specifically distinguishable in WastewaterSCAN data - Dashboard accessibility and reporting window as of resolution date
You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates — your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.
## Question
Will either Mpox clade 1b or West Nile Virus be detected in U.S. wastewater on August 1, 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
According to the [resolution source](https://data.wastewaterscan.org/about): "WastewaterSCAN tests samples of solids from municipal wastewater for targets associated with infectious diseases. The concentration of these targets in wastewater is associated with the occurrence of the related disease in the community, and changes in the concentrations of these markers in wastewater over time tell us about changes in the rates of disease in the community. WastewaterSCAN only tests for analytes that are related to infectious diseases. All of our methods are published and open, and are linked in sections below.
"
`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "8be41271f4f563ba", "sheet_id": "82"}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as **Yes** if the [WastewaterSCAN Dashboard](https://data.wastewaterscan.org/) shows any samples positive for Mpox clade 1b or West Nile Virus for the period through the reporting date, when checked by Metaculus on or after August 1, 2026.
## Fine Print
In case of accessibility issues with the main resolution source, Metaculus may check the July [monthly update](https://wwscan.ghost.io/) as a backup source.
## Sub-question decomposition
- (w=0.70) Will West Nile Virus be detected in any U.S. wastewater sample tracked by WastewaterSCAN for the period through the reporting date on/around August 1, 2026? — West Nile Virus is endemic and reliably peaks in summer (July-August) across the U.S., making detection in early August
- (w=0.30) Will Mpox clade 1b be detected in any U.S. wastewater sample tracked by WastewaterSCAN for the period through the reporting date on/around August 1, 2026? — Mpox clade 1b has had limited U.S. presence; detection is possible but less certain than WNV, but only one of the two ne
Combination rule: **independent_or**
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | UP | DATED] WastewaterSCAN began prospective West Nile Virus monitoring in mid-October 2025, adding it to the pathogen panel.
2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | UP | RECENT] West Nile Virus recorded a positive detection in May 2026, the first seasonal signal ahead of mosquito season.
3. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | DATED] WNV is most commonly spread during mosquito season, typically June through October, peaking in summer.
4. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | DATED] From October 2025 through April 2026, WNV was nationally in the 'NOT-DETECTED' category due to no recent detections.
5. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 75 | UP | DATED] A single WNV positive was detected in Iowa in December 2025, though national status remained not-detected.
6. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] First U.S. wastewater detection of Clade 1 not linked to a known case occurred in Washington State in September 2025.
7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] California confirmed Clade 1b infections in three unrelated persons in October 2025, suggesting community transmission.
8. [sq2 | web_search | WEAK cred 40 | DOWN | RECENT] No evidence found that WastewaterSCAN specifically distinguishes and tracks Mpox clade 1b as a dashboard target.
## Cross-Market Signals
### No signal found
Information gaps:
- Whether WastewaterSCAN dashboard reports clade-specific Mpox 1b vs generic Mpox
- Historical base rate of WNV wastewater positives during July/August peak
- Current (June-July 2026) WNV detection status on dashboard
- Whether WNV detection triggers dashboard 'positive' resolution threshold
Key uncertainties:
- Whether WNV summer seasonality produces a detection by Aug 1, 2026
- Whether Mpox clade 1b is specifically distinguishable in WastewaterSCAN data
- Dashboard accessibility and reporting window as of resolution date
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The status quo outcome — what happens if nothing changes from today.
(c) A brief scenario that results in NO.
(d) A brief scenario that results in YES.
## Calibration guidance
- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition — independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.
- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.
- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid >0.97 or <0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological — overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question — move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.
- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or "very recent" claim — especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility — must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.
- **Also provide a holistic estimate** — your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) (d) above — 5-8 sentences total>",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq2": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>
},
"holistic_p_yes": <float in [0.01, 0.99] — your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition>,
"what_would_change_my_mind": "<1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%>"
}
{
"forecast": {
"combination_logic": "independent_or",
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | UP | DATED] WastewaterSCAN began prospective West Nile Virus monitoring in mid-October 2025, adding it to the pathogen panel.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | UP | RECENT] West Nile Virus recorded a positive detection in May 2026, the first seasonal signal ahead of mosquito season.\n3. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | DATED] WNV is most commonly spread during mosquito season, typically June through October, peaking in summer.\n4. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | DATED] From October 2025 through April 2026, WNV was nationally in the \u0027NOT-DETECTED\u0027 category due to no recent detections.\n5. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 75 | UP | DATED] A single WNV positive was detected in Iowa in December 2025, though national status remained not-detected.\n6. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] First U.S. wastewater detection of Clade 1 not linked to a known case occurred in Washington State in September 2025.\n7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] California confirmed Clade 1b infections in three unrelated persons in October 2025, suggesting community transmission.\n8. [sq2 | web_search | WEAK cred 40 | DOWN | RECENT] No evidence found that WastewaterSCAN specifically distinguishes and tracks Mpox clade 1b as a dashboard target.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n - Whether WastewaterSCAN dashboard reports clade-specific Mpox 1b vs generic Mpox\n - Historical base rate of WNV wastewater positives during July/August peak\n - Current (June-July 2026) WNV detection status on dashboard\n - Whether WNV detection triggers dashboard \u0027positive\u0027 resolution threshold\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether WNV summer seasonality produces a detection by Aug 1, 2026\n - Whether Mpox clade 1b is specifically distinguishable in WastewaterSCAN data\n - Dashboard accessibility and reporting window as of resolution date",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates \u2014 your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.\n\n## Question\nWill either Mpox clade 1b or West Nile Virus be detected in U.S. wastewater on August 1, 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nAccording to the [resolution source](https://data.wastewaterscan.org/about): \"WastewaterSCAN tests samples of solids from municipal wastewater for targets associated with infectious diseases. The concentration of these targets in wastewater is associated with the occurrence of the related disease in the community, and changes in the concentrations of these markers in wastewater over time tell us about changes in the rates of disease in the community. WastewaterSCAN only tests for analytes that are related to infectious diseases. All of our methods are published and open, and are linked in sections below.\n\n\"\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"8be41271f4f563ba\", \"sheet_id\": \"82\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if the [WastewaterSCAN Dashboard](https://data.wastewaterscan.org/) shows any samples positive for Mpox clade 1b or West Nile Virus for the period through the reporting date, when checked by Metaculus on or after August 1, 2026.\n\n## Fine Print\nIn case of accessibility issues with the main resolution source, Metaculus may check the July [monthly update](https://wwscan.ghost.io/) as a backup source.\n\n## Sub-question decomposition\n- (w=0.70) Will West Nile Virus be detected in any U.S. wastewater sample tracked by WastewaterSCAN for the period through the reporting date on/around August 1, 2026? \u2014 West Nile Virus is endemic and reliably peaks in summer (July-August) across the U.S., making detection in early August \n- (w=0.30) Will Mpox clade 1b be detected in any U.S. wastewater sample tracked by WastewaterSCAN for the period through the reporting date on/around August 1, 2026? \u2014 Mpox clade 1b has had limited U.S. presence; detection is possible but less certain than WNV, but only one of the two ne\n\nCombination rule: **independent_or**\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | UP | DATED] WastewaterSCAN began prospective West Nile Virus monitoring in mid-October 2025, adding it to the pathogen panel.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | UP | RECENT] West Nile Virus recorded a positive detection in May 2026, the first seasonal signal ahead of mosquito season.\n3. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | DATED] WNV is most commonly spread during mosquito season, typically June through October, peaking in summer.\n4. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | DATED] From October 2025 through April 2026, WNV was nationally in the \u0027NOT-DETECTED\u0027 category due to no recent detections.\n5. [sq1 | web_search | WEAK cred 75 | UP | DATED] A single WNV positive was detected in Iowa in December 2025, though national status remained not-detected.\n6. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] First U.S. wastewater detection of Clade 1 not linked to a known case occurred in Washington State in September 2025.\n7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] California confirmed Clade 1b infections in three unrelated persons in October 2025, suggesting community transmission.\n8. [sq2 | web_search | WEAK cred 40 | DOWN | RECENT] No evidence found that WastewaterSCAN specifically distinguishes and tracks Mpox clade 1b as a dashboard target.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n - Whether WastewaterSCAN dashboard reports clade-specific Mpox 1b vs generic Mpox\n - Historical base rate of WNV wastewater positives during July/August peak\n - Current (June-July 2026) WNV detection status on dashboard\n - Whether WNV detection triggers dashboard \u0027positive\u0027 resolution threshold\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether WNV summer seasonality produces a detection by Aug 1, 2026\n - Whether Mpox clade 1b is specifically distinguishable in WastewaterSCAN data\n - Dashboard accessibility and reporting window as of resolution date\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The status quo outcome \u2014 what happens if nothing changes from today.\n (c) A brief scenario that results in NO.\n (d) A brief scenario that results in YES.\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition \u2014 independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.\n- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.\n- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid \u003e0.97 or \u003c0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological \u2014 overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.\n- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question \u2014 move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.\n- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or \"very recent\" claim \u2014 especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility \u2014 must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.\n- **Also provide a holistic estimate** \u2014 your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) (b) (c) (d) above \u2014 5-8 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"sub_question_estimates\": {\n \"sq1\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq2\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e\n },\n \"holistic_p_yes\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99] \u2014 your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition\u003e,\n \"what_would_change_my_mind\": \"\u003c1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%\u003e\"\n}\n",
"holistic_p_yes": 0.94,
"models": [
"opus"
],
"p_yes": 0.94384,
"rationale": "(a) About 2-3 months until resolution on Aug 1, 2026. (b) Status quo: WastewaterSCAN added WNV to its panel in Oct 2025 and already logged a seasonal positive in May 2026; WNV reliably peaks July-August across the U.S., so a detection by Aug 1 is the default expectation. (c) NO scenario: WastewaterSCAN dashboard access issues, or WNV signals appearing later than expected and Mpox clade 1b not being distinguishable/reported as a specific dashboard target, leaving neither resolving positive. (d) YES scenario: WNV endemic summer transmission produces at least one wastewater positive in the July peak (highly likely), or Mpox clade 1b community transmission (documented in CA Oct 2025) yields a detection. WNV alone almost certainly drives a Yes. Main uncertainty is whether the dashboard reports clade-specific Mpox 1b at all, which weakens sq2, but sq1 dominates the OR.",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": 0.93,
"sq2": 0.28
},
"what_would_change_my_mind": "Evidence that WastewaterSCAN dropped WNV or that its dashboard shows no summer WNV positives despite peak season would push me below 70%; confirmation of a live July WNV positive would push me above 95%."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "independent_or",
"domain": "health",
"n_sub_qs": 2,
"n_tools": 3,
"reasoning_approach": "The question resolves Yes if EITHER West Nile Virus OR Mpox clade 1b is detected, so we combine the two sub-question probabilities with independent_or; WNV\u0027s strong summer seasonality makes it the dominant path to a near-certain Yes.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will West Nile Virus be detected in any U.S. wastewater sample tracked by WastewaterSCAN for the period through the reporting date on/around August 1, 2026?",
"rationale": "West Nile Virus is endemic and reliably peaks in summer (July-August) across the U.S., making detection in early August extremely likely; this is the dominant driver of a Yes resolution.",
"weight": 0.7
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will Mpox clade 1b be detected in any U.S. wastewater sample tracked by WastewaterSCAN for the period through the reporting date on/around August 1, 2026?",
"rationale": "Mpox clade 1b has had limited U.S. presence; detection is possible but less certain than WNV, but only one of the two needs to be positive.",
"weight": 0.3
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find current WastewaterSCAN dashboard data on West Nile Virus detection in U.S. wastewater, seasonal patterns, and whether WNV is consistently detected in summer months. Also assess whether WastewaterSCAN tracks West Nile Virus as a target.",
"max_searches": 3,
"question_title": "Will West Nile Virus be detected in U.S. wastewater around August 1, 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find recent status of Mpox clade 1b spread in the United States in 2025-2026, number of cases, and whether WastewaterSCAN detects Mpox clade 1b in wastewater.",
"max_searches": 3,
"question_title": "Will Mpox clade 1b be detected in U.S. wastewater around August 1, 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq2"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"WastewaterSCAN West Nile Virus wastewater detection 2025",
"Mpox clade 1b United States wastewater surveillance 2025 2026",
"WastewaterSCAN dashboard targets West Nile Mpox"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-07-04T12:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nAccording to the [resolution source](https://data.wastewaterscan.org/about): \"WastewaterSCAN tests samples of solids from municipal wastewater for targets associated with infectious diseases. The concentration of these targets in wastewater is associated with the occurrence of the related disease in the community, and changes in the concentrations of these markers in wastewater over time tell us about changes in the rates of disease in the community. WastewaterSCAN only tests for analytes that are related to infectious diseases. All of our methods are published and open, and are linked in sections below.\n\n\"\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"8be41271f4f563ba\", \"sheet_id\": \"82\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if the [WastewaterSCAN Dashboard](https://data.wastewaterscan.org/) shows any samples positive for Mpox clade 1b or West Nile Virus for the period through the reporting date, when checked by Metaculus on or after August 1, 2026.\n\n## Fine Print\nIn case of accessibility issues with the main resolution source, Metaculus may check the July [monthly update](https://wwscan.ghost.io/) as a backup source.",
"question_type": "binary",
"title": "Will either Mpox clade 1b or West Nile Virus be detected in U.S. wastewater on August 1, 2026?"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 2,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 39.36,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "14 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 61.22,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "0 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "WastewaterSCAN began prospective West Nile Virus monitoring in mid-October 2025, adding it to the pathogen panel.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "West Nile Virus recorded a positive detection in May 2026, the first seasonal signal ahead of mosquito season.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "WNV is most commonly spread during mosquito season, typically June through October, peaking in summer.",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "From October 2025 through April 2026, WNV was nationally in the \u0027NOT-DETECTED\u0027 category due to no recent detections.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "A single WNV positive was detected in Iowa in December 2025, though national status remained not-detected.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "First U.S. wastewater detection of Clade 1 not linked to a known case occurred in Washington State in September 2025.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "California confirmed Clade 1b infections in three unrelated persons in October 2025, suggesting community transmission.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "No evidence found that WastewaterSCAN specifically distinguishes and tracks Mpox clade 1b as a dashboard target.",
"credibility": 40,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"Whether WastewaterSCAN dashboard reports clade-specific Mpox 1b vs generic Mpox",
"Historical base rate of WNV wastewater positives during July/August peak",
"Current (June-July 2026) WNV detection status on dashboard",
"Whether WNV detection triggers dashboard \u0027positive\u0027 resolution threshold"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether WNV summer seasonality produces a detection by Aug 1, 2026",
"Whether Mpox clade 1b is specifically distinguishable in WastewaterSCAN data",
"Dashboard accessibility and reporting window as of resolution date"
],
"n_evidence": 8
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 19.22,
"plan": 13.31,
"research": 61.23,
"synthesis": 14.7
}
}