Estimate the base rate of new CDC North American travel notices per two-month window (sq1), adjust upward for active/emerging outbreaks (sq2) and seasonal summer risk factors (sq3), then blend via weighted average to yield the probability of at least one new notice in July-August 2026.
## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $6.3M - "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.80, Volume: $6.0M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.18, Volume: $7.3M - "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?" → Yes: 0.06, Volume: $1.3M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $4.9M
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] CDC issued a new Level 1 Hepatitis A notice for Manitoba, Canada on June 4, 2026, one month before the question window. 2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | RECENT] Multiple North American CDC notices exist recently: RMSF Mexico (Dec 2025), MDR Salmonella Mexico (ongoing), measles global (May 2025). 3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC updates dengue notices periodically; Global Dengue Level 1 was updated June 23, 2026, showing frequent notice refreshes. 4. [sq2 | article_search | STRONG cred 82 | UP | RECENT] Mexico measles outbreak has killed at least 40 people since 2025, linked to cross-border transmission from Texas. 5. [sq2 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] US measles cases surpassed 1,100 by late February 2026, on track for record year, with ongoing multi-state outbreaks. 6. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | RECENT] Mexico has active endemic dengue with peak incidence May-November, and existing RMSF outbreak in northern border states. 7. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | RECENT] Hantavirus outbreak aboard a cruise ship reported around late May 2026 amid concerns over US health agency cuts. 8. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 68 | DOWN | RECENT] Trump administration deep cuts to CDC/health agencies and WHO withdrawal have hampered outbreak response capacity. 9. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | RECENT] Dengue transmission in Mexico peaks May-November, overlapping the July-August question window (mosquito season). 10. [sq3 | web_search | WEAK cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Existing Manitoba Hepatitis A and Mexico notices may be updated rather than newly issued, affecting 'newly issued' resolution. ## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $6.3M - "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.80, Volume: $6.0M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.18, Volume: $7.3M - "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?" → Yes: 0.06, Volume: $1.3M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $4.9M Information gaps: - No explicit base rate count of new North American CDC notices per two-month window historically - Unclear whether 'updates' to existing notices count as 'newly issued' - No data on CDC notice issuance frequency under 2026 budget cuts - No July/August 2026 outbreak data (window is future) Key uncertainties: - Whether an active outbreak (measles/dengue Mexico) triggers a formal new notice in the window - Effect of CDC staffing/funding cuts on new notice output - Interpretation of 'newly issued' vs. updated notices - Whether hurricane/mosquito season prompts a Caribbean/Mexico notice
You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates — your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.
## Question
Will any North American country have a CDC travel advisory issued in July or August 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
At the time of this question, the most recent notice for a North American country was [Hepatitis A in Canada](https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices/level1/hepatitis-a-canada)
`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "baab77277b7e3f0b", "sheet_id": "69"}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as Yes if a country in North America has a travel advisory by the Centers for Disease Control at its [Travel Health Notices](https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices) page newly issued in July 2026 or August 2026.
## Fine Print
No other resolution source will be used in resolving this question.
## Sub-question decomposition
- (w=0.50) Does the CDC issue new travel health notices at a base rate high enough that at least one North American country receives a newly issued notice in any given two-month window? — The core driver is the frequency with which CDC issues country-specific travel health notices for North American countri
- (w=0.30) Is there an ongoing or emerging disease outbreak (e.g., measles, dengue, Zika, hepatitis A, avian flu) in a North American country likely to trigger a new CDC notice in July-August 2026? — Active outbreaks are the primary trigger for new notices; summer season often sees vector-borne and travel-related disea
- (w=0.20) Will summer 2026 travel/seasonal factors (hurricane season, mosquito season, mass gatherings) increase the likelihood of a new North American travel notice? — July-August coincides with peak mosquito-borne disease and hurricane season, elevating baseline notice probability.
Combination rule: **weighted_average**
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] CDC issued a new Level 1 Hepatitis A notice for Manitoba, Canada on June 4, 2026, one month before the question window.
2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | RECENT] Multiple North American CDC notices exist recently: RMSF Mexico (Dec 2025), MDR Salmonella Mexico (ongoing), measles global (May 2025).
3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC updates dengue notices periodically; Global Dengue Level 1 was updated June 23, 2026, showing frequent notice refreshes.
4. [sq2 | article_search | STRONG cred 82 | UP | RECENT] Mexico measles outbreak has killed at least 40 people since 2025, linked to cross-border transmission from Texas.
5. [sq2 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] US measles cases surpassed 1,100 by late February 2026, on track for record year, with ongoing multi-state outbreaks.
6. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | RECENT] Mexico has active endemic dengue with peak incidence May-November, and existing RMSF outbreak in northern border states.
7. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | RECENT] Hantavirus outbreak aboard a cruise ship reported around late May 2026 amid concerns over US health agency cuts.
8. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 68 | DOWN | RECENT] Trump administration deep cuts to CDC/health agencies and WHO withdrawal have hampered outbreak response capacity.
9. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | RECENT] Dengue transmission in Mexico peaks May-November, overlapping the July-August question window (mosquito season).
10. [sq3 | web_search | WEAK cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Existing Manitoba Hepatitis A and Mexico notices may be updated rather than newly issued, affecting 'newly issued' resolution.
## Cross-Market Signals
### Polymarket
- "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $6.3M
- "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.80, Volume: $6.0M
- "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.18, Volume: $7.3M
- "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?" → Yes: 0.06, Volume: $1.3M
- "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $4.9M
Information gaps:
- No explicit base rate count of new North American CDC notices per two-month window historically
- Unclear whether 'updates' to existing notices count as 'newly issued'
- No data on CDC notice issuance frequency under 2026 budget cuts
- No July/August 2026 outbreak data (window is future)
Key uncertainties:
- Whether an active outbreak (measles/dengue Mexico) triggers a formal new notice in the window
- Effect of CDC staffing/funding cuts on new notice output
- Interpretation of 'newly issued' vs. updated notices
- Whether hurricane/mosquito season prompts a Caribbean/Mexico notice
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The status quo outcome — what happens if nothing changes from today.
(c) A brief scenario that results in NO.
(d) A brief scenario that results in YES.
## Calibration guidance
- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition — independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.
- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.
- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid >0.97 or <0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological — overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question — move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.
- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or "very recent" claim — especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility — must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.
- **Also provide a holistic estimate** — your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) (d) above — 5-8 sentences total>",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq2": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq3": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>
},
"holistic_p_yes": <float in [0.01, 0.99] — your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition>,
"what_would_change_my_mind": "<1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%>"
}
{
"forecast": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] CDC issued a new Level 1 Hepatitis A notice for Manitoba, Canada on June 4, 2026, one month before the question window.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | RECENT] Multiple North American CDC notices exist recently: RMSF Mexico (Dec 2025), MDR Salmonella Mexico (ongoing), measles global (May 2025).\n3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC updates dengue notices periodically; Global Dengue Level 1 was updated June 23, 2026, showing frequent notice refreshes.\n4. [sq2 | article_search | STRONG cred 82 | UP | RECENT] Mexico measles outbreak has killed at least 40 people since 2025, linked to cross-border transmission from Texas.\n5. [sq2 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] US measles cases surpassed 1,100 by late February 2026, on track for record year, with ongoing multi-state outbreaks.\n6. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | RECENT] Mexico has active endemic dengue with peak incidence May-November, and existing RMSF outbreak in northern border states.\n7. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | RECENT] Hantavirus outbreak aboard a cruise ship reported around late May 2026 amid concerns over US health agency cuts.\n8. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 68 | DOWN | RECENT] Trump administration deep cuts to CDC/health agencies and WHO withdrawal have hampered outbreak response capacity.\n9. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | RECENT] Dengue transmission in Mexico peaks May-November, overlapping the July-August question window (mosquito season).\n10. [sq3 | web_search | WEAK cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Existing Manitoba Hepatitis A and Mexico notices may be updated rather than newly issued, affecting \u0027newly issued\u0027 resolution.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $6.3M\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.80, Volume: $6.0M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.18, Volume: $7.3M\n- \"US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.06, Volume: $1.3M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $4.9M\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No explicit base rate count of new North American CDC notices per two-month window historically\n - Unclear whether \u0027updates\u0027 to existing notices count as \u0027newly issued\u0027\n - No data on CDC notice issuance frequency under 2026 budget cuts\n - No July/August 2026 outbreak data (window is future)\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether an active outbreak (measles/dengue Mexico) triggers a formal new notice in the window\n - Effect of CDC staffing/funding cuts on new notice output\n - Interpretation of \u0027newly issued\u0027 vs. updated notices\n - Whether hurricane/mosquito season prompts a Caribbean/Mexico notice",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates \u2014 your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.\n\n## Question\nWill any North American country have a CDC travel advisory issued in July or August 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nAt the time of this question, the most recent notice for a North American country was [Hepatitis A in Canada](https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices/level1/hepatitis-a-canada)\r\n\r\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"baab77277b7e3f0b\", \"sheet_id\": \"69\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as Yes if a country in North America has a travel advisory by the Centers for Disease Control at its [Travel Health Notices](https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices) page newly issued in July 2026 or August 2026.\n\n## Fine Print\nNo other resolution source will be used in resolving this question.\n\n## Sub-question decomposition\n- (w=0.50) Does the CDC issue new travel health notices at a base rate high enough that at least one North American country receives a newly issued notice in any given two-month window? \u2014 The core driver is the frequency with which CDC issues country-specific travel health notices for North American countri\n- (w=0.30) Is there an ongoing or emerging disease outbreak (e.g., measles, dengue, Zika, hepatitis A, avian flu) in a North American country likely to trigger a new CDC notice in July-August 2026? \u2014 Active outbreaks are the primary trigger for new notices; summer season often sees vector-borne and travel-related disea\n- (w=0.20) Will summer 2026 travel/seasonal factors (hurricane season, mosquito season, mass gatherings) increase the likelihood of a new North American travel notice? \u2014 July-August coincides with peak mosquito-borne disease and hurricane season, elevating baseline notice probability.\n\nCombination rule: **weighted_average**\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] CDC issued a new Level 1 Hepatitis A notice for Manitoba, Canada on June 4, 2026, one month before the question window.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | RECENT] Multiple North American CDC notices exist recently: RMSF Mexico (Dec 2025), MDR Salmonella Mexico (ongoing), measles global (May 2025).\n3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | VERY_RECENT] CDC updates dengue notices periodically; Global Dengue Level 1 was updated June 23, 2026, showing frequent notice refreshes.\n4. [sq2 | article_search | STRONG cred 82 | UP | RECENT] Mexico measles outbreak has killed at least 40 people since 2025, linked to cross-border transmission from Texas.\n5. [sq2 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] US measles cases surpassed 1,100 by late February 2026, on track for record year, with ongoing multi-state outbreaks.\n6. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | RECENT] Mexico has active endemic dengue with peak incidence May-November, and existing RMSF outbreak in northern border states.\n7. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | RECENT] Hantavirus outbreak aboard a cruise ship reported around late May 2026 amid concerns over US health agency cuts.\n8. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 68 | DOWN | RECENT] Trump administration deep cuts to CDC/health agencies and WHO withdrawal have hampered outbreak response capacity.\n9. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | RECENT] Dengue transmission in Mexico peaks May-November, overlapping the July-August question window (mosquito season).\n10. [sq3 | web_search | WEAK cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Existing Manitoba Hepatitis A and Mexico notices may be updated rather than newly issued, affecting \u0027newly issued\u0027 resolution.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $6.3M\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.80, Volume: $6.0M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.18, Volume: $7.3M\n- \"US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.06, Volume: $1.3M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $4.9M\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No explicit base rate count of new North American CDC notices per two-month window historically\n - Unclear whether \u0027updates\u0027 to existing notices count as \u0027newly issued\u0027\n - No data on CDC notice issuance frequency under 2026 budget cuts\n - No July/August 2026 outbreak data (window is future)\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether an active outbreak (measles/dengue Mexico) triggers a formal new notice in the window\n - Effect of CDC staffing/funding cuts on new notice output\n - Interpretation of \u0027newly issued\u0027 vs. updated notices\n - Whether hurricane/mosquito season prompts a Caribbean/Mexico notice\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The status quo outcome \u2014 what happens if nothing changes from today.\n (c) A brief scenario that results in NO.\n (d) A brief scenario that results in YES.\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition \u2014 independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.\n- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.\n- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid \u003e0.97 or \u003c0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological \u2014 overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.\n- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question \u2014 move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.\n- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or \"very recent\" claim \u2014 especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility \u2014 must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.\n- **Also provide a holistic estimate** \u2014 your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) (b) (c) (d) above \u2014 5-8 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"sub_question_estimates\": {\n \"sq1\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq2\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq3\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e\n },\n \"holistic_p_yes\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99] \u2014 your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition\u003e,\n \"what_would_change_my_mind\": \"\u003c1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%\u003e\"\n}\n",
"holistic_p_yes": 0.68,
"models": [
"opus"
],
"p_yes": 0.6716,
"rationale": "(a) The window (July-August 2026) is a few months out, with ample time for new notices to appear. (b) Status quo: CDC maintains a steady stream of North American notices\u2014Hep A Canada (June 2026), RMSF Mexico, Salmonella Mexico, periodic dengue updates\u2014so a new or refreshed notice in a two-month window is the baseline expectation. (c) NO scenario: CDC budget/staffing cuts throttle new notice issuance, and existing outbreaks only generate \u0027updates\u0027 to existing notices rather than \u0027newly issued\u0027 ones during the exact window, causing a miss on a technicality. (d) YES scenario: peak mosquito/dengue season (May-November) in Mexico, active measles outbreaks, or a hurricane-related event triggers a fresh country-specific notice in July or August. The strongest uncertainty is the interpretation of \u0027newly issued\u0027 vs. updates, plus reduced CDC output capacity. On balance, the combination of endemic seasonal disease and CDC\u0027s historically frequent notice cadence for North America favors YES.",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": 0.68,
"sq2": 0.66,
"sq3": 0.64
},
"what_would_change_my_mind": "Historical data showing CDC rarely issues NEW (not updated) North American notices in a given two-month window, or evidence that 2026 budget cuts have sharply reduced notice output, would push me below 30%; confirmation that a specific new notice is imminent or that updates count as \u0027newly issued\u0027 would push me above 70%."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "health",
"n_sub_qs": 3,
"n_tools": 3,
"reasoning_approach": "Estimate the base rate of new CDC North American travel notices per two-month window (sq1), adjust upward for active/emerging outbreaks (sq2) and seasonal summer risk factors (sq3), then blend via weighted average to yield the probability of at least one new notice in July-August 2026.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Does the CDC issue new travel health notices at a base rate high enough that at least one North American country receives a newly issued notice in any given two-month window?",
"rationale": "The core driver is the frequency with which CDC issues country-specific travel health notices for North American countries (US, Canada, Mexico, and Central American/Caribbean nations depending on definition).",
"weight": 0.5
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Is there an ongoing or emerging disease outbreak (e.g., measles, dengue, Zika, hepatitis A, avian flu) in a North American country likely to trigger a new CDC notice in July-August 2026?",
"rationale": "Active outbreaks are the primary trigger for new notices; summer season often sees vector-borne and travel-related disease surges.",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will summer 2026 travel/seasonal factors (hurricane season, mosquito season, mass gatherings) increase the likelihood of a new North American travel notice?",
"rationale": "July-August coincides with peak mosquito-borne disease and hurricane season, elevating baseline notice probability.",
"weight": 0.2
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"CDC travel health notices North America 2025 2026",
"CDC travel notice Mexico Canada dengue measles 2025",
"list current CDC travel health notices"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_days": 180,
"queries": [
"North America disease outbreak 2025 dengue measles hepatitis",
"Mexico Caribbean outbreak CDC advisory 2025",
"avian influenza measles outbreak US Canada 2026"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Determine how frequently the CDC issues new country-specific travel health notices for North American countries (including Mexico, Canada, Caribbean, Central America), and identify any current or emerging outbreaks that could trigger a new notice in mid-2026. Find the historical base rate of new North American notices per two-month period.",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "Will any North American country have a CDC travel advisory issued in July or August 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-07-02T03:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nAt the time of this question, the most recent notice for a North American country was [Hepatitis A in Canada](https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices/level1/hepatitis-a-canada)\r\n\r\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"baab77277b7e3f0b\", \"sheet_id\": \"69\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as Yes if a country in North America has a travel advisory by the Centers for Disease Control at its [Travel Health Notices](https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices) page newly issued in July 2026 or August 2026.\n\n## Fine Print\nNo other resolution source will be used in resolving this question.",
"question_type": "binary",
"title": "Will any North American country have a CDC travel advisory issued in July or August 2026?"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $6.3M\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.80, Volume: $6.0M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.18, Volume: $7.3M\n- \"US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.06, Volume: $1.3M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $4.9M",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 3,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 61.52,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "0 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.6,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "20 articles",
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 33.06,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "13 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "CDC issued a new Level 1 Hepatitis A notice for Manitoba, Canada on June 4, 2026, one month before the question window.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Multiple North American CDC notices exist recently: RMSF Mexico (Dec 2025), MDR Salmonella Mexico (ongoing), measles global (May 2025).",
"credibility": 78,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "CDC updates dengue notices periodically; Global Dengue Level 1 was updated June 23, 2026, showing frequent notice refreshes.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Mexico measles outbreak has killed at least 40 people since 2025, linked to cross-border transmission from Texas.",
"credibility": 82,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "US measles cases surpassed 1,100 by late February 2026, on track for record year, with ongoing multi-state outbreaks.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Mexico has active endemic dengue with peak incidence May-November, and existing RMSF outbreak in northern border states.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Hantavirus outbreak aboard a cruise ship reported around late May 2026 amid concerns over US health agency cuts.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Trump administration deep cuts to CDC/health agencies and WHO withdrawal have hampered outbreak response capacity.",
"credibility": 68,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Dengue transmission in Mexico peaks May-November, overlapping the July-August question window (mosquito season).",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Existing Manitoba Hepatitis A and Mexico notices may be updated rather than newly issued, affecting \u0027newly issued\u0027 resolution.",
"credibility": 55,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No explicit base rate count of new North American CDC notices per two-month window historically",
"Unclear whether \u0027updates\u0027 to existing notices count as \u0027newly issued\u0027",
"No data on CDC notice issuance frequency under 2026 budget cuts",
"No July/August 2026 outbreak data (window is future)"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether an active outbreak (measles/dengue Mexico) triggers a formal new notice in the window",
"Effect of CDC staffing/funding cuts on new notice output",
"Interpretation of \u0027newly issued\u0027 vs. updated notices",
"Whether hurricane/mosquito season prompts a Caribbean/Mexico notice"
],
"n_evidence": 10
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 18.14,
"plan": 12.25,
"research": 61.52,
"synthesis": 17.8
}
}