Each sub-question reflects a correlated contributing factor (event occurrence, specific attendance signals, and base-rate propensity), so a weighted average blends them into the final probability that Trump appears at UFC 330's venue.
## Cross-Market Signals ### No signal found
1. [sq1 | wikipedia_lookup | STRONG cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] UFC 330 is scheduled for August 15, 2026, at Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, before the September 1 cutoff. 2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | VERY_RECENT] UFC 330 features a Makhachev vs. Machado Garry main event and full undercard, indicating a firmly planned numbered event. 3. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No reports confirm or indicate Trump plans to attend UFC 330 specifically as of late June 2026. 4. [sq2 | web_search | WEAK cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] UFC 330 is in Philadelphia, not a typical Trump-frequented Florida/Vegas/NJ venue where he has historically attended. 5. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 92 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Trump hosted UFC Freedom 250 at the White House on June 14, 2026, sitting cageside, showing deep ongoing engagement with UFC. 6. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | RECENT] Trump attended UFC 327 in Miami, his first sporting event since the Iran war, greeted by a packed crowd. 7. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | RECENT] Trump has a 25-year UFC relationship and has attended numerous events, including four as a sitting president. 8. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | DOWN | RECENT] Four sitting-president UFC appearances against many events held implies he does not attend every UFC event. ## Cross-Market Signals ### No signal found Information gaps: - No statement from Trump or White House about UFC 330 attendance plans - Base rate: what fraction of 2025-2026 UFC numbered events did Trump attend - Whether UFC 330 has special significance (title fights) drawing Trump - Trump's August 2026 schedule and any Philadelphia-area plans Key uncertainties: - Whether Trump signals attendance closer to the August 15 date - Whether Philadelphia location deters versus his Florida/Vegas pattern - Possible last-minute security or scheduling conflicts - Whether the event card or venue changes before September 1
You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates — your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.
## Question
Will Donald Trump attend UFC 330?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
AP: [The rise of UFC: Dana White’s path from ‘human cockfighting’ to the White House starts with Trump](https://apnews.com/article/ufc-trump-white-house-f54e52422537a9838fffa752fc0dd439)
`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "736e2e4208979bf8", "sheet_id": "70"}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as Yes if President Donald Trump is anywhere within the grounds of the venue where [UFC 330](https://www.ufc.com/event/ufc-330) takes place. Otherwise this resolves as No, including if the event does not take place before September 1, 2026.
## Sub-question decomposition
- (w=0.30) Will UFC 330 take place before September 1, 2026? — If the event does not occur, the question resolves No regardless of Trump's intentions. UFC 330 numbering/scheduling mus
- (w=0.40) Will Trump publicly indicate plans or be reported as likely to attend UFC 330 specifically? — Direct signal of attendance for this specific event; the strongest predictor.
- (w=0.30) Has Trump attended UFC events at a high base rate during his recent presidency/term? — Trump's frequent UFC attendance and close ties to Dana White establish a base rate for showing up at a given numbered ev
Combination rule: **weighted_average**
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | wikipedia_lookup | STRONG cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] UFC 330 is scheduled for August 15, 2026, at Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, before the September 1 cutoff.
2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | VERY_RECENT] UFC 330 features a Makhachev vs. Machado Garry main event and full undercard, indicating a firmly planned numbered event.
3. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No reports confirm or indicate Trump plans to attend UFC 330 specifically as of late June 2026.
4. [sq2 | web_search | WEAK cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] UFC 330 is in Philadelphia, not a typical Trump-frequented Florida/Vegas/NJ venue where he has historically attended.
5. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 92 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Trump hosted UFC Freedom 250 at the White House on June 14, 2026, sitting cageside, showing deep ongoing engagement with UFC.
6. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | RECENT] Trump attended UFC 327 in Miami, his first sporting event since the Iran war, greeted by a packed crowd.
7. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | RECENT] Trump has a 25-year UFC relationship and has attended numerous events, including four as a sitting president.
8. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | DOWN | RECENT] Four sitting-president UFC appearances against many events held implies he does not attend every UFC event.
## Cross-Market Signals
### No signal found
Information gaps:
- No statement from Trump or White House about UFC 330 attendance plans
- Base rate: what fraction of 2025-2026 UFC numbered events did Trump attend
- Whether UFC 330 has special significance (title fights) drawing Trump
- Trump's August 2026 schedule and any Philadelphia-area plans
Key uncertainties:
- Whether Trump signals attendance closer to the August 15 date
- Whether Philadelphia location deters versus his Florida/Vegas pattern
- Possible last-minute security or scheduling conflicts
- Whether the event card or venue changes before September 1
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The status quo outcome — what happens if nothing changes from today.
(c) A brief scenario that results in NO.
(d) A brief scenario that results in YES.
## Calibration guidance
- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition — independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.
- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.
- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid >0.97 or <0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological — overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question — move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.
- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or "very recent" claim — especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility — must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.
- **Also provide a holistic estimate** — your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) (d) above — 5-8 sentences total>",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq2": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq3": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>
},
"holistic_p_yes": <float in [0.01, 0.99] — your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition>,
"what_would_change_my_mind": "<1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%>"
}
{
"forecast": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | wikipedia_lookup | STRONG cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] UFC 330 is scheduled for August 15, 2026, at Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, before the September 1 cutoff.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | VERY_RECENT] UFC 330 features a Makhachev vs. Machado Garry main event and full undercard, indicating a firmly planned numbered event.\n3. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No reports confirm or indicate Trump plans to attend UFC 330 specifically as of late June 2026.\n4. [sq2 | web_search | WEAK cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] UFC 330 is in Philadelphia, not a typical Trump-frequented Florida/Vegas/NJ venue where he has historically attended.\n5. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 92 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Trump hosted UFC Freedom 250 at the White House on June 14, 2026, sitting cageside, showing deep ongoing engagement with UFC.\n6. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | RECENT] Trump attended UFC 327 in Miami, his first sporting event since the Iran war, greeted by a packed crowd.\n7. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | RECENT] Trump has a 25-year UFC relationship and has attended numerous events, including four as a sitting president.\n8. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | DOWN | RECENT] Four sitting-president UFC appearances against many events held implies he does not attend every UFC event.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No statement from Trump or White House about UFC 330 attendance plans\n - Base rate: what fraction of 2025-2026 UFC numbered events did Trump attend\n - Whether UFC 330 has special significance (title fights) drawing Trump\n - Trump\u0027s August 2026 schedule and any Philadelphia-area plans\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether Trump signals attendance closer to the August 15 date\n - Whether Philadelphia location deters versus his Florida/Vegas pattern\n - Possible last-minute security or scheduling conflicts\n - Whether the event card or venue changes before September 1",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates \u2014 your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.\n\n## Question\nWill Donald Trump attend UFC 330?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nAP: [The rise of UFC: Dana White\u2019s path from \u2018human cockfighting\u2019 to the White House starts with Trump](https://apnews.com/article/ufc-trump-white-house-f54e52422537a9838fffa752fc0dd439)\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"736e2e4208979bf8\", \"sheet_id\": \"70\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as Yes if President Donald Trump is anywhere within the grounds of the venue where [UFC 330](https://www.ufc.com/event/ufc-330) takes place. Otherwise this resolves as No, including if the event does not take place before September 1, 2026.\n\n## Sub-question decomposition\n- (w=0.30) Will UFC 330 take place before September 1, 2026? \u2014 If the event does not occur, the question resolves No regardless of Trump\u0027s intentions. UFC 330 numbering/scheduling mus\n- (w=0.40) Will Trump publicly indicate plans or be reported as likely to attend UFC 330 specifically? \u2014 Direct signal of attendance for this specific event; the strongest predictor.\n- (w=0.30) Has Trump attended UFC events at a high base rate during his recent presidency/term? \u2014 Trump\u0027s frequent UFC attendance and close ties to Dana White establish a base rate for showing up at a given numbered ev\n\nCombination rule: **weighted_average**\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | wikipedia_lookup | STRONG cred 85 | UP | VERY_RECENT] UFC 330 is scheduled for August 15, 2026, at Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, before the September 1 cutoff.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | VERY_RECENT] UFC 330 features a Makhachev vs. Machado Garry main event and full undercard, indicating a firmly planned numbered event.\n3. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No reports confirm or indicate Trump plans to attend UFC 330 specifically as of late June 2026.\n4. [sq2 | web_search | WEAK cred 55 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] UFC 330 is in Philadelphia, not a typical Trump-frequented Florida/Vegas/NJ venue where he has historically attended.\n5. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 92 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Trump hosted UFC Freedom 250 at the White House on June 14, 2026, sitting cageside, showing deep ongoing engagement with UFC.\n6. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | RECENT] Trump attended UFC 327 in Miami, his first sporting event since the Iran war, greeted by a packed crowd.\n7. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | RECENT] Trump has a 25-year UFC relationship and has attended numerous events, including four as a sitting president.\n8. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | DOWN | RECENT] Four sitting-president UFC appearances against many events held implies he does not attend every UFC event.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No statement from Trump or White House about UFC 330 attendance plans\n - Base rate: what fraction of 2025-2026 UFC numbered events did Trump attend\n - Whether UFC 330 has special significance (title fights) drawing Trump\n - Trump\u0027s August 2026 schedule and any Philadelphia-area plans\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether Trump signals attendance closer to the August 15 date\n - Whether Philadelphia location deters versus his Florida/Vegas pattern\n - Possible last-minute security or scheduling conflicts\n - Whether the event card or venue changes before September 1\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The status quo outcome \u2014 what happens if nothing changes from today.\n (c) A brief scenario that results in NO.\n (d) A brief scenario that results in YES.\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition \u2014 independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.\n- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.\n- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid \u003e0.97 or \u003c0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological \u2014 overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.\n- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question \u2014 move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.\n- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or \"very recent\" claim \u2014 especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility \u2014 must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.\n- **Also provide a holistic estimate** \u2014 your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) (b) (c) (d) above \u2014 5-8 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"sub_question_estimates\": {\n \"sq1\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq2\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq3\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e\n },\n \"holistic_p_yes\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99] \u2014 your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition\u003e,\n \"what_would_change_my_mind\": \"\u003c1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%\u003e\"\n}\n",
"holistic_p_yes": 0.12,
"models": [
"opus"
],
"p_yes": 0.3072,
"rationale": "(a) About two months remain until the August 15, 2026 event date, and the September 1, 2026 cutoff. (b) Status quo: UFC 330 is firmly scheduled in Philadelphia with a known main event, but there is no signal Trump plans to attend, so the default outcome is No. (c) NO scenario: Trump skips the Philadelphia event, which is outside his usual Florida/Vegas/NJ pattern, due to scheduling, security, or simple lack of interest \u2014 the most likely path given no current attendance signal. (d) YES scenario: closer to the date, Dana White invites Trump, a title fight or political opportunity in a swing-state city like Philadelphia draws him, and he appears cageside as he has at other events. Trump\u0027s deep UFC ties (White House event, multiple sitting-president appearances) keep this plausible, but he clearly does not attend every numbered event, and the lack of any specific signal plus the atypical venue weigh against attendance.",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": 0.9,
"sq2": 0.18,
"sq3": 0.3
},
"what_would_change_my_mind": "A statement from Trump or the White House indicating he will attend UFC 330, or reports of him being on the fight card guest list, would push me well above 70%; confirmation the event is cancelled/postponed past Sept 1 would push me below 30%."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "culture",
"n_sub_qs": 3,
"n_tools": 4,
"reasoning_approach": "Each sub-question reflects a correlated contributing factor (event occurrence, specific attendance signals, and base-rate propensity), so a weighted average blends them into the final probability that Trump appears at UFC 330\u0027s venue.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will UFC 330 take place before September 1, 2026?",
"rationale": "If the event does not occur, the question resolves No regardless of Trump\u0027s intentions. UFC 330 numbering/scheduling must be confirmed.",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will Trump publicly indicate plans or be reported as likely to attend UFC 330 specifically?",
"rationale": "Direct signal of attendance for this specific event; the strongest predictor.",
"weight": 0.4
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Has Trump attended UFC events at a high base rate during his recent presidency/term?",
"rationale": "Trump\u0027s frequent UFC attendance and close ties to Dana White establish a base rate for showing up at a given numbered event.",
"weight": 0.3
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"UFC 330 date location 2026",
"Trump UFC 330 attend",
"Dana White UFC 330 schedule"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_days": 180,
"queries": [
"Trump attends UFC event 2025 2026",
"Trump Dana White UFC appearance",
"UFC 330 announcement card location"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Determine whether UFC 330 is scheduled to occur before September 1, 2026, its date and venue, and whether President Trump has indicated he will attend. Also assess Trump\u0027s recent base rate of attending UFC events.",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "Will Donald Trump attend UFC 330?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"UFC 330",
"Donald Trump UFC attendance",
"List of UFC events 2026"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "wikipedia_lookup"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nAP: [The rise of UFC: Dana White\u2019s path from \u2018human cockfighting\u2019 to the White House starts with Trump](https://apnews.com/article/ufc-trump-white-house-f54e52422537a9838fffa752fc0dd439)\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"736e2e4208979bf8\", \"sheet_id\": \"70\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as Yes if President Donald Trump is anywhere within the grounds of the venue where [UFC 330](https://www.ufc.com/event/ufc-330) takes place. Otherwise this resolves as No, including if the event does not take place before September 1, 2026.",
"question_type": "binary",
"title": "Will Donald Trump attend UFC 330?"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 4,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 53.03,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "0 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 1.02,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "21 articles",
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 42.69,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "10 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 3.19,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "3 pages",
"tool_name": "wikipedia_lookup"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "UFC 330 is scheduled for August 15, 2026, at Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, before the September 1 cutoff.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "wikipedia_lookup",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "UFC 330 features a Makhachev vs. Machado Garry main event and full undercard, indicating a firmly planned numbered event.",
"credibility": 78,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "No reports confirm or indicate Trump plans to attend UFC 330 specifically as of late June 2026.",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "UFC 330 is in Philadelphia, not a typical Trump-frequented Florida/Vegas/NJ venue where he has historically attended.",
"credibility": 55,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Trump hosted UFC Freedom 250 at the White House on June 14, 2026, sitting cageside, showing deep ongoing engagement with UFC.",
"credibility": 92,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Trump attended UFC 327 in Miami, his first sporting event since the Iran war, greeted by a packed crowd.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Trump has a 25-year UFC relationship and has attended numerous events, including four as a sitting president.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Four sitting-president UFC appearances against many events held implies he does not attend every UFC event.",
"credibility": 65,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No statement from Trump or White House about UFC 330 attendance plans",
"Base rate: what fraction of 2025-2026 UFC numbered events did Trump attend",
"Whether UFC 330 has special significance (title fights) drawing Trump",
"Trump\u0027s August 2026 schedule and any Philadelphia-area plans"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether Trump signals attendance closer to the August 15 date",
"Whether Philadelphia location deters versus his Florida/Vegas pattern",
"Possible last-minute security or scheduling conflicts",
"Whether the event card or venue changes before September 1"
],
"n_evidence": 8
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 20.19,
"plan": 9.98,
"research": 53.03,
"synthesis": 19.72
}
}