We blend the probability/conditions of SpaceX being publicly listed, the implied per-share price magnitude from IPO valuation, and market momentum affecting the monthly high; the weighted average translates these factors into a numeric price distribution, conditioned heavily on whether a tradable SPCX even exists in July 2026.
## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.0M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $3.7M - "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.81, Volume: $4.2M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.17, Volume: $6.2M
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 78 | UP | VERY_RECENT] SpaceX shares began trading on Nasdaq under ticker SPCX on June 12, 2026, with the offering closing June 15, 2026. 2. [sq1 | earnings_data | STRONG cred 75 | UP | VERY_RECENT] SPCX is showing a current trading price of $152.6, indicating an actively traded public security. 3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | VERY_RECENT] SPCX options began trading June 16, 2026, confirming completion of standard post-IPO listing processes. 4. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 72 | UP | VERY_RECENT] SpaceX IPO priced at a fixed $135 per share; stock closed first day around $161. 5. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Reported IPO valuation cited as $1.77 trillion (debut market cap above $2 trillion), far above $350B threshold. 6. [sq2 | earnings_data | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | VERY_RECENT] SPCX latest price of $152.6 sits well above the $135 IPO price, implying a high-magnitude nominal share price. 7. [sq3 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] S&P 500 at 7357 and Nasdaq at 25359 as of June 25, 2026, but both show large negative year-over-year changes. 8. [sq3 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] VIX at 18.89, down YoY, indicating relatively moderate equity market volatility in late June 2026. ## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.0M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $3.7M - "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.81, Volume: $4.2M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.17, Volume: $6.2M Information gaps: - No July 2026 price data yet (question period is future) - No data on post-IPO price trajectory through late June into July - Conflicting valuation figures ($350B vs $1.77T) unverified by primary source - No base rate on first-month post-IPO high vs. listing price for mega-IPOs Key uncertainties: - Whether SPCX holds, rises, or sells off into July 2026 - Reliability of inflated $1.77T valuation claim - Broad market direction in July amid weak YoY indices - Lockup/overallotment effects on July price action
You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.
## Question
What will be the highest stock price of SpaceX in July 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
[Axios: The bull and bear cases for SpaceX](https://www.axios.com/2026/06/09/spacex-ipo-bull-bear-elon-musk)
`{"format": "metac_reveal_and_close_in_period", "info": {"post_id": 44168, "question_id": 44180}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as the highest stock price of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Class A Common Stock, as presented by Yahoo Finance in the High columns in its [Historical Data](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPCX/history/) for the month of July 2026.
## Fine Print
Please note that in order to streamline resolution, no other resolution source will be used to resolve the question.
***
This question's information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44168) which opened on 2026-06-19 18:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.
## Range
The answer must be a number in [150, 400].
## Sub-question decomposition (planner)
- (w=0.40) Will SpaceX (ticker SPCX) actually be publicly traded with Yahoo Finance historical data available for July 2026? — The question presupposes a SpaceX IPO/listing; if SpaceX is not public by July 2026, there is no stock price and the que
- (w=0.30) If listed, will SpaceX's IPO valuation imply a high-magnitude share price (e.g., reflecting a $350B+ valuation) rather than a low nominal price? — The numeric answer depends heavily on share count and IPO pricing, which determines whether the per-share price is tens,
- (w=0.30) Will broad equity markets and tech/space sentiment be strong (rising) during July 2026, pushing the monthly high above the listing price? — Given the monthly HIGH is requested, market momentum and post-IPO pop dynamics raise the high above the open/IPO price.
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 78 | UP | VERY_RECENT] SpaceX shares began trading on Nasdaq under ticker SPCX on June 12, 2026, with the offering closing June 15, 2026.
2. [sq1 | earnings_data | STRONG cred 75 | UP | VERY_RECENT] SPCX is showing a current trading price of $152.6, indicating an actively traded public security.
3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | VERY_RECENT] SPCX options began trading June 16, 2026, confirming completion of standard post-IPO listing processes.
4. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 72 | UP | VERY_RECENT] SpaceX IPO priced at a fixed $135 per share; stock closed first day around $161.
5. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Reported IPO valuation cited as $1.77 trillion (debut market cap above $2 trillion), far above $350B threshold.
6. [sq2 | earnings_data | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | VERY_RECENT] SPCX latest price of $152.6 sits well above the $135 IPO price, implying a high-magnitude nominal share price.
7. [sq3 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] S&P 500 at 7357 and Nasdaq at 25359 as of June 25, 2026, but both show large negative year-over-year changes.
8. [sq3 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] VIX at 18.89, down YoY, indicating relatively moderate equity market volatility in late June 2026.
## Cross-Market Signals
### Polymarket
- "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.0M
- "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $3.7M
- "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.81, Volume: $4.2M
- "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.17, Volume: $6.2M
Information gaps:
- No July 2026 price data yet (question period is future)
- No data on post-IPO price trajectory through late June into July
- Conflicting valuation figures ($350B vs $1.77T) unverified by primary source
- No base rate on first-month post-IPO high vs. listing price for mega-IPOs
Key uncertainties:
- Whether SPCX holds, rises, or sells off into July 2026
- Reliability of inflated $1.77T valuation claim
- Broad market direction in July amid weak YoY indices
- Lockup/overallotment effects on July price action
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).
(c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.
(d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.
(e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).
(f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).
## Calibration guidance
- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.
- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.
- Don't pile mass at one value — if you're tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.
- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen — don't override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution — 6-10 sentences total>",
"p10": <number>,
"p25": <number>,
"p50": <number>,
"p75": <number>,
"p90": <number>
}
Percentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 <= p25 <= p50 <= p75 <= p90).
{
"forecast": {
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 78 | UP | VERY_RECENT] SpaceX shares began trading on Nasdaq under ticker SPCX on June 12, 2026, with the offering closing June 15, 2026.\n2. [sq1 | earnings_data | STRONG cred 75 | UP | VERY_RECENT] SPCX is showing a current trading price of $152.6, indicating an actively traded public security.\n3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | VERY_RECENT] SPCX options began trading June 16, 2026, confirming completion of standard post-IPO listing processes.\n4. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 72 | UP | VERY_RECENT] SpaceX IPO priced at a fixed $135 per share; stock closed first day around $161.\n5. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Reported IPO valuation cited as $1.77 trillion (debut market cap above $2 trillion), far above $350B threshold.\n6. [sq2 | earnings_data | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | VERY_RECENT] SPCX latest price of $152.6 sits well above the $135 IPO price, implying a high-magnitude nominal share price.\n7. [sq3 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] S\u0026P 500 at 7357 and Nasdaq at 25359 as of June 25, 2026, but both show large negative year-over-year changes.\n8. [sq3 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] VIX at 18.89, down YoY, indicating relatively moderate equity market volatility in late June 2026.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.0M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $3.7M\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.81, Volume: $4.2M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.17, Volume: $6.2M\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No July 2026 price data yet (question period is future)\n - No data on post-IPO price trajectory through late June into July\n - Conflicting valuation figures ($350B vs $1.77T) unverified by primary source\n - No base rate on first-month post-IPO high vs. listing price for mega-IPOs\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether SPCX holds, rises, or sells off into July 2026\n - Reliability of inflated $1.77T valuation claim\n - Broad market direction in July amid weak YoY indices\n - Lockup/overallotment effects on July price action",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.\n\n## Question\nWhat will be the highest stock price of SpaceX in July 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\n[Axios: The bull and bear cases for SpaceX](https://www.axios.com/2026/06/09/spacex-ipo-bull-bear-elon-musk)\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 44168, \"question_id\": 44180}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the highest stock price of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Class A Common Stock, as presented by Yahoo Finance in the High columns in its [Historical Data](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPCX/history/) for the month of July 2026.\n\n## Fine Print\nPlease note that in order to streamline resolution, no other resolution source will be used to resolve the question.\n\n***\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44168) which opened on 2026-06-19 18:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.\n\n## Range\nThe answer must be a number in [150, 400].\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n- (w=0.40) Will SpaceX (ticker SPCX) actually be publicly traded with Yahoo Finance historical data available for July 2026? \u2014 The question presupposes a SpaceX IPO/listing; if SpaceX is not public by July 2026, there is no stock price and the que\n- (w=0.30) If listed, will SpaceX\u0027s IPO valuation imply a high-magnitude share price (e.g., reflecting a $350B+ valuation) rather than a low nominal price? \u2014 The numeric answer depends heavily on share count and IPO pricing, which determines whether the per-share price is tens,\n- (w=0.30) Will broad equity markets and tech/space sentiment be strong (rising) during July 2026, pushing the monthly high above the listing price? \u2014 Given the monthly HIGH is requested, market momentum and post-IPO pop dynamics raise the high above the open/IPO price.\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 78 | UP | VERY_RECENT] SpaceX shares began trading on Nasdaq under ticker SPCX on June 12, 2026, with the offering closing June 15, 2026.\n2. [sq1 | earnings_data | STRONG cred 75 | UP | VERY_RECENT] SPCX is showing a current trading price of $152.6, indicating an actively traded public security.\n3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | VERY_RECENT] SPCX options began trading June 16, 2026, confirming completion of standard post-IPO listing processes.\n4. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 72 | UP | VERY_RECENT] SpaceX IPO priced at a fixed $135 per share; stock closed first day around $161.\n5. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 55 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Reported IPO valuation cited as $1.77 trillion (debut market cap above $2 trillion), far above $350B threshold.\n6. [sq2 | earnings_data | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | VERY_RECENT] SPCX latest price of $152.6 sits well above the $135 IPO price, implying a high-magnitude nominal share price.\n7. [sq3 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] S\u0026P 500 at 7357 and Nasdaq at 25359 as of June 25, 2026, but both show large negative year-over-year changes.\n8. [sq3 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 90 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] VIX at 18.89, down YoY, indicating relatively moderate equity market volatility in late June 2026.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.0M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $3.7M\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.81, Volume: $4.2M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.17, Volume: $6.2M\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No July 2026 price data yet (question period is future)\n - No data on post-IPO price trajectory through late June into July\n - Conflicting valuation figures ($350B vs $1.77T) unverified by primary source\n - No base rate on first-month post-IPO high vs. listing price for mega-IPOs\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether SPCX holds, rises, or sells off into July 2026\n - Reliability of inflated $1.77T valuation claim\n - Broad market direction in July amid weak YoY indices\n - Lockup/overallotment effects on July price action\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).\n (c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.\n (d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.\n (e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).\n (f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.\n- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.\n- Don\u0027t pile mass at one value \u2014 if you\u0027re tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.\n- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen \u2014 don\u0027t override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution \u2014 6-10 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"p10\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p25\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p50\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p75\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p90\": \u003cnumber\u003e\n}\n\nPercentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 \u003c= p25 \u003c= p50 \u003c= p75 \u003c= p90).\n",
"models": [
"opus"
],
"p50": 168.0,
"percentiles": {
"0.1": 152.0,
"0.25": 158.0,
"0.5": 168.0,
"0.75": 183.0,
"0.9": 210.0
},
"rationale": "(a) Resolves after July 2026; about one month of trading data ahead. (b) Status quo: SPCX trades ~$152.6 in late June, having IPO\u0027d at $135 and closed first day near $161. (c) If current trend continues modestly upward post-IPO, the July monthly HIGH would sit somewhat above the current spot, likely in the $165-180 range. (d) Markets show calm macro (VIX ~19, Fed likely on hold), but indices have negative YoY changes, limiting strong tailwinds. Base rates for newly-listed mega-IPOs show high intra-month volatility, so a monthly high meaningfully above spot is normal. (e) LOW scenario: post-IPO fade, lockup/overallotment selling, weak market drags price down so July high barely exceeds spot near $150-155. (f) HIGH scenario: continued post-IPO momentum, strong space/tech sentiment, and a melt-up push the July high toward $200+. Because the question asks for the monthly HIGH (an extreme), I center slightly above current spot and skew the upper tail wider. The lower bound is anchored at the range floor of 150."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "economics",
"n_sub_qs": 3,
"n_tools": 4,
"reasoning_approach": "We blend the probability/conditions of SpaceX being publicly listed, the implied per-share price magnitude from IPO valuation, and market momentum affecting the monthly high; the weighted average translates these factors into a numeric price distribution, conditioned heavily on whether a tradable SPCX even exists in July 2026.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will SpaceX (ticker SPCX) actually be publicly traded with Yahoo Finance historical data available for July 2026?",
"rationale": "The question presupposes a SpaceX IPO/listing; if SpaceX is not public by July 2026, there is no stock price and the question likely annuls or resolves at a near-zero/placeholder. This is the dominant uncertainty given SpaceX has historically remained private.",
"weight": 0.4
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "If listed, will SpaceX\u0027s IPO valuation imply a high-magnitude share price (e.g., reflecting a $350B+ valuation) rather than a low nominal price?",
"rationale": "The numeric answer depends heavily on share count and IPO pricing, which determines whether the per-share price is tens, hundreds, or thousands of dollars.",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will broad equity markets and tech/space sentiment be strong (rising) during July 2026, pushing the monthly high above the listing price?",
"rationale": "Given the monthly HIGH is requested, market momentum and post-IPO pop dynamics raise the high above the open/IPO price.",
"weight": 0.3
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Determine whether SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies) has filed for or completed an IPO under ticker SPCX, expected listing date, and IPO valuation/share price range as of mid-2026.",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "What will be the highest stock price of SpaceX in July 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"SpaceX IPO ticker SPCX listing date 2026",
"SpaceX IPO valuation per share price 2026",
"SpaceX stock public trading July 2026"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"company_names": [
"Space Exploration Technologies"
],
"tickers": [
"SPCX"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2"
],
"tool_name": "earnings_data"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_months": 6,
"series_ids": [
"SP500",
"NASDAQCOM",
"VIXCLS"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "fred_data"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-06-26T18:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\n[Axios: The bull and bear cases for SpaceX](https://www.axios.com/2026/06/09/spacex-ipo-bull-bear-elon-musk)\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 44168, \"question_id\": 44180}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the highest stock price of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Class A Common Stock, as presented by Yahoo Finance in the High columns in its [Historical Data](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPCX/history/) for the month of July 2026.\n\n## Fine Print\nPlease note that in order to streamline resolution, no other resolution source will be used to resolve the question.\n\n***\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44168) which opened on 2026-06-19 18:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.",
"open_lower": true,
"open_upper": true,
"q_max": 400,
"q_min": 150,
"question_type": "numeric",
"title": "What will be the highest stock price of SpaceX in July 2026?",
"units": ""
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.0M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $3.7M\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.81, Volume: $4.2M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.17, Volume: $6.2M",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 4,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 24.78,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "15 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 61.47,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "0 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.81,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "ok",
"tool_name": "earnings_data"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 1.9,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "3 series",
"tool_name": "fred_data"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "SpaceX shares began trading on Nasdaq under ticker SPCX on June 12, 2026, with the offering closing June 15, 2026.",
"credibility": 78,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "SPCX is showing a current trading price of $152.6, indicating an actively traded public security.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "earnings_data",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "SPCX options began trading June 16, 2026, confirming completion of standard post-IPO listing processes.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "SpaceX IPO priced at a fixed $135 per share; stock closed first day around $161.",
"credibility": 72,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Reported IPO valuation cited as $1.77 trillion (debut market cap above $2 trillion), far above $350B threshold.",
"credibility": 55,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "SPCX latest price of $152.6 sits well above the $135 IPO price, implying a high-magnitude nominal share price.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "earnings_data",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "S\u0026P 500 at 7357 and Nasdaq at 25359 as of June 25, 2026, but both show large negative year-over-year changes.",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "fred_data",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "VIX at 18.89, down YoY, indicating relatively moderate equity market volatility in late June 2026.",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "fred_data",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No July 2026 price data yet (question period is future)",
"No data on post-IPO price trajectory through late June into July",
"Conflicting valuation figures ($350B vs $1.77T) unverified by primary source",
"No base rate on first-month post-IPO high vs. listing price for mega-IPOs"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether SPCX holds, rises, or sells off into July 2026",
"Reliability of inflated $1.77T valuation claim",
"Broad market direction in July amid weak YoY indices",
"Lockup/overallotment effects on July price action"
],
"n_evidence": 8
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 14.5,
"plan": 13.15,
"research": 61.47,
"synthesis": 14.95
}
}