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{
"forecast": {
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | DATED] CNN reports a staggering dip in US international tourism in 2025, with fewer foreign visitors than prior years.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $3.9M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $3.5M\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.81, Volume: $4.1M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.18, Volume: $6.1M\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No I-92 Foreign Originating figures for recent 2025/2026 months provided\n - No historical July baseline values (e.g., July 2024, July 2025)\n - No seasonal trend or year-over-year percent change data\n - No data on policy/visa/economic factors affecting 2026 travel\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Actual magnitude of 2025-2026 tourism decline\n - Whether decline continues or reverses by July 2026\n - Typical July foreign-originating passenger volume baseline\n - Impact of exchange rates, policy, and global travel demand",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.\n\n## Question\nHow many foreign visitors will fly to the United States in July 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nCNN: [Staggering dip in US tourism is a troubling sign for the future](https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/25/travel/analysis-tourism-fewer-international-visitors-2025-vis)\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 44165, \"question_id\": 44178}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the number of Foreign Originating air passengers reported by the [Monthly I-92 Data](https://www.trade.gov/us-international-air-travel-statistics-i-92-data) of the International Air Travel Statistics program for July 2026.\n\n## Fine Print\nClick on \"Monthly Data.\" Resolution amount is the number of \"Foreign Originating\" for July 2026.\n\n***\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44165) which opened on 2026-06-19 09:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.\n\n## Range\nThe answer must be a number in [4000000, 6500000] (units: passengers).\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n(none)\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | DATED] CNN reports a staggering dip in US international tourism in 2025, with fewer foreign visitors than prior years.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $3.9M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $3.5M\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.81, Volume: $4.1M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.18, Volume: $6.1M\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No I-92 Foreign Originating figures for recent 2025/2026 months provided\n - No historical July baseline values (e.g., July 2024, July 2025)\n - No seasonal trend or year-over-year percent change data\n - No data on policy/visa/economic factors affecting 2026 travel\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Actual magnitude of 2025-2026 tourism decline\n - Whether decline continues or reverses by July 2026\n - Typical July foreign-originating passenger volume baseline\n - Impact of exchange rates, policy, and global travel demand\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).\n (c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.\n (d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.\n (e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).\n (f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.\n- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.\n- Don\u0027t pile mass at one value \u2014 if you\u0027re tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.\n- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen \u2014 don\u0027t override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution \u2014 6-10 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"p10\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p25\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p50\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p75\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p90\": \u003cnumber\u003e\n}\n\nPercentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 \u003c= p25 \u003c= p50 \u003c= p75 \u003c= p90).\n",
"models": [
"opus"
],
"p50": 4650000.0,
"percentiles": {
"0.1": 4250000.0,
"0.25": 4450000.0,
"0.5": 4650000.0,
"0.75": 4900000.0,
"0.9": 5200000.0
},
"rationale": "(a) The question resolves with July 2026 I-92 data, about 7 months after the original question opened. (b) Status quo: 2025 saw a notable dip in foreign visitors per CNN, with July being a peak travel month; foreign-originating air passengers typically run roughly 4.3-4.8M in July. (c) If the 2025 decline continues into 2026, July would land somewhat below normal peak, around 4.4-4.6M. (d) No liquid market addresses this directly; base rate for peak-summer foreign-originating volumes is mid-4M to low-5M range. (e) A low scenario (~p10) involves continued tourism deterioration from policy/visa friction, strong dollar, or geopolitical disruption pushing volume toward 4.2M. (f) A high scenario (~p90) involves recovery/normalization of travel demand and a weaker dollar driving volumes back toward 5.2M+. Given the reported decline but peak-season strength, I center near 4.6M with wide tails to account for uncertainty about magnitude and recovery."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "unknown",
"n_sub_qs": 0,
"n_tools": 0,
"reasoning_approach": "",
"sub_questions": [],
"tool_requests": []
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-06-26T09:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nCNN: [Staggering dip in US tourism is a troubling sign for the future](https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/25/travel/analysis-tourism-fewer-international-visitors-2025-vis)\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 44165, \"question_id\": 44178}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the number of Foreign Originating air passengers reported by the [Monthly I-92 Data](https://www.trade.gov/us-international-air-travel-statistics-i-92-data) of the International Air Travel Statistics program for July 2026.\n\n## Fine Print\nClick on \"Monthly Data.\" Resolution amount is the number of \"Foreign Originating\" for July 2026.\n\n***\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44165) which opened on 2026-06-19 09:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.",
"open_lower": true,
"open_upper": true,
"q_max": 6500000,
"q_min": 4000000,
"question_type": "numeric",
"title": "How many foreign visitors will fly to the United States in July 2026?",
"units": "passengers"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $3.9M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $3.5M\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.81, Volume: $4.1M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.18, Volume: $6.1M",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 0,
"tools": []
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "CNN reports a staggering dip in US international tourism in 2025, with fewer foreign visitors than prior years.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No I-92 Foreign Originating figures for recent 2025/2026 months provided",
"No historical July baseline values (e.g., July 2024, July 2025)",
"No seasonal trend or year-over-year percent change data",
"No data on policy/visa/economic factors affecting 2026 travel"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Actual magnitude of 2025-2026 tourism decline",
"Whether decline continues or reverses by July 2026",
"Typical July foreign-originating passenger volume baseline",
"Impact of exchange rates, policy, and global travel demand"
],
"n_evidence": 1
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 14.08,
"plan": 25.5,
"research": 0.89,
"synthesis": 5.3
}
}