Anchor on the current count of 5, then adjust downward for likely status recoveries (sq1/sq2) and upward for new outbreaks (sq3/sq4); the weighted blend and Monte Carlo translate these factors into a probability distribution over the multiple-choice count buckets.
## Cross-Market Signals ### No signal found
1. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo model centered on baseline 5 gives P(exactly 5)=0.46 and mean count 5.20 by September 2026. 2. [sq1 | claude_news | STRONG cred 88 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Current 5 suspended countries are Eswatini, Botswana, Greece, Cyprus, and Lesotho per DEFRA/WOAH portal. 3. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Targeted news search returned no articles documenting any of the 5 countries regaining FMD-free status before September 2026. 4. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] News search surfaced no reports of new countries acquiring FMD suspension status during the research window. 5. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Model assigns substantial probability mass to 6+ countries (0.247 for 6, 0.071 for 7), implying meaningful chance of new outbreaks. 6. [sq4 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Model gives ~0.087 cumulative probability to counts of 7 or higher, consistent with two-or-more new outbreaks being unlikely but possible. ## Cross-Market Signals ### No signal found Information gaps: - Historical base rate for how long FMD suspensions typically last before WOAH restores free status - Current epidemiological status/trajectory of the 5 suspended countries' outbreaks - Recent FMD outbreak activity in high-risk regions (Europe, southern Africa, Asia) - WOAH timeline/criteria for status recovery (waiting periods) Key uncertainties: - Whether Greece/Cyprus European outbreaks contained and free status restored before Sept 2026 - Possibility of new European outbreak spillover (e.g., Hungary referenced in portal) - Speed of WOAH reclassification process - Whether southern African outbreaks (Eswatini/Botswana/Lesotho) persist or resolve
You are an elite superforecaster. Estimate the probability of each option for this Metaculus multiple-choice question.
## Question
How many countries will be classified as having an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease on September 1, 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
At the time of this question, there are 5 countries with this status: Eswatini, Botswana, Greece, Cyprus and Lesotho. For more information please see foot-and-mouth disease updates portal maintained by the UK's Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs' [here](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/foot-and-mouth-disease-in-hungary).
`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "e24aa0d3ce6da617", "sheet_id": "62"}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as the number of countries classified as being under "suspension of FMD free status" at the World Organisation for Animal Health [Map of FMD official status](https://www.woah.org/en/disease/foot-and-mouth-disease/#ui-id-2) when accessed by Metaculus on or after September 1, 2026.
## Options
- Less than 4
- 4 or 5
- 6 or 7
- More than 7
## Sub-question decomposition (planner)
- (w=0.35) Will all 5 currently-suspended countries (Eswatini, Botswana, Greece, Cyprus, Lesotho) still be under FMD suspension on September 1, 2026? — FMD free status recovery takes time (typically several months to over a year), so the existing 5 likely persist, anchori
- (w=0.25) Will at least one of the current 5 countries regain its FMD-free status before September 1, 2026? — WOAH allows status restoration after demonstrating disease control; recovery would reduce the count below 5.
- (w=0.25) Will at least one new country acquire FMD suspension status between now and September 1, 2026? — Recent European spread (Hungary, Germany, Greece) shows new outbreaks are plausible, which would increase the count.
- (w=0.15) Will two or more new countries acquire FMD suspension status between now and September 1, 2026? — Captures the tail of a larger outbreak wave that would push the count well above 5.
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo model centered on baseline 5 gives P(exactly 5)=0.46 and mean count 5.20 by September 2026.
2. [sq1 | claude_news | STRONG cred 88 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Current 5 suspended countries are Eswatini, Botswana, Greece, Cyprus, and Lesotho per DEFRA/WOAH portal.
3. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Targeted news search returned no articles documenting any of the 5 countries regaining FMD-free status before September 2026.
4. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] News search surfaced no reports of new countries acquiring FMD suspension status during the research window.
5. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Model assigns substantial probability mass to 6+ countries (0.247 for 6, 0.071 for 7), implying meaningful chance of new outbreaks.
6. [sq4 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Model gives ~0.087 cumulative probability to counts of 7 or higher, consistent with two-or-more new outbreaks being unlikely but possible.
## Cross-Market Signals
### No signal found
Information gaps:
- Historical base rate for how long FMD suspensions typically last before WOAH restores free status
- Current epidemiological status/trajectory of the 5 suspended countries' outbreaks
- Recent FMD outbreak activity in high-risk regions (Europe, southern Africa, Asia)
- WOAH timeline/criteria for status recovery (waiting periods)
Key uncertainties:
- Whether Greece/Cyprus European outbreaks contained and free status restored before Sept 2026
- Possibility of new European outbreak spillover (e.g., Hungary referenced in portal)
- Speed of WOAH reclassification process
- Whether southern African outbreaks (Eswatini/Botswana/Lesotho) persist or resolve
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving probabilities, address these explicitly in your rationale:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The status quo outcome — the option most likely if nothing changes from today.
(c) An outcome that would be SURPRISING but plausible.
## Calibration guidance
- **Status quo anchoring.** Good forecasters put extra weight on the status quo option because the world changes slowly most of the time.
- **Leave moderate probability on most options.** Good forecasters don't drop options to ~0% — leave ≥3-5% on every option to account for unexpected outcomes, unless you have strong specific evidence ruling them out.
- Avoid uniform-distribution laziness — most options are not equally likely.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) for these options appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong prior and stay close to them absent specific contrary evidence.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) above, then explain your distribution — 4-7 sentences total>",
"probabilities": {
"Less than 4": <prob>,
"4 or 5": <prob>,
"6 or 7": <prob>,
"More than 7": <prob>
}
}
Probabilities MUST sum to ~1.0 (renormalization is applied; close enough is fine).
{
"forecast": {
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo model centered on baseline 5 gives P(exactly 5)=0.46 and mean count 5.20 by September 2026.\n2. [sq1 | claude_news | STRONG cred 88 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Current 5 suspended countries are Eswatini, Botswana, Greece, Cyprus, and Lesotho per DEFRA/WOAH portal.\n3. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Targeted news search returned no articles documenting any of the 5 countries regaining FMD-free status before September 2026.\n4. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] News search surfaced no reports of new countries acquiring FMD suspension status during the research window.\n5. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Model assigns substantial probability mass to 6+ countries (0.247 for 6, 0.071 for 7), implying meaningful chance of new outbreaks.\n6. [sq4 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Model gives ~0.087 cumulative probability to counts of 7 or higher, consistent with two-or-more new outbreaks being unlikely but possible.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n - Historical base rate for how long FMD suspensions typically last before WOAH restores free status\n - Current epidemiological status/trajectory of the 5 suspended countries\u0027 outbreaks\n - Recent FMD outbreak activity in high-risk regions (Europe, southern Africa, Asia)\n - WOAH timeline/criteria for status recovery (waiting periods)\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether Greece/Cyprus European outbreaks contained and free status restored before Sept 2026\n - Possibility of new European outbreak spillover (e.g., Hungary referenced in portal)\n - Speed of WOAH reclassification process\n - Whether southern African outbreaks (Eswatini/Botswana/Lesotho) persist or resolve",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Estimate the probability of each option for this Metaculus multiple-choice question.\n\n## Question\nHow many countries will be classified as having an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease on September 1, 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nAt the time of this question, there are 5 countries with this status: Eswatini, Botswana, Greece, Cyprus and Lesotho. For more information please see foot-and-mouth disease updates portal maintained by the UK\u0027s Department for Environment, Food \u0026 Rural Affairs\u0027 [here](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/foot-and-mouth-disease-in-hungary).\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"e24aa0d3ce6da617\", \"sheet_id\": \"62\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the number of countries classified as being under \"suspension of FMD free status\" at the World Organisation for Animal Health [Map of FMD official status](https://www.woah.org/en/disease/foot-and-mouth-disease/#ui-id-2) when accessed by Metaculus on or after September 1, 2026.\n\n## Options\n - Less than 4\n - 4 or 5\n - 6 or 7\n - More than 7\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n- (w=0.35) Will all 5 currently-suspended countries (Eswatini, Botswana, Greece, Cyprus, Lesotho) still be under FMD suspension on September 1, 2026? \u2014 FMD free status recovery takes time (typically several months to over a year), so the existing 5 likely persist, anchori\n- (w=0.25) Will at least one of the current 5 countries regain its FMD-free status before September 1, 2026? \u2014 WOAH allows status restoration after demonstrating disease control; recovery would reduce the count below 5.\n- (w=0.25) Will at least one new country acquire FMD suspension status between now and September 1, 2026? \u2014 Recent European spread (Hungary, Germany, Greece) shows new outbreaks are plausible, which would increase the count.\n- (w=0.15) Will two or more new countries acquire FMD suspension status between now and September 1, 2026? \u2014 Captures the tail of a larger outbreak wave that would push the count well above 5.\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo model centered on baseline 5 gives P(exactly 5)=0.46 and mean count 5.20 by September 2026.\n2. [sq1 | claude_news | STRONG cred 88 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Current 5 suspended countries are Eswatini, Botswana, Greece, Cyprus, and Lesotho per DEFRA/WOAH portal.\n3. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Targeted news search returned no articles documenting any of the 5 countries regaining FMD-free status before September 2026.\n4. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] News search surfaced no reports of new countries acquiring FMD suspension status during the research window.\n5. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Model assigns substantial probability mass to 6+ countries (0.247 for 6, 0.071 for 7), implying meaningful chance of new outbreaks.\n6. [sq4 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Model gives ~0.087 cumulative probability to counts of 7 or higher, consistent with two-or-more new outbreaks being unlikely but possible.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found\n\nInformation gaps:\n - Historical base rate for how long FMD suspensions typically last before WOAH restores free status\n - Current epidemiological status/trajectory of the 5 suspended countries\u0027 outbreaks\n - Recent FMD outbreak activity in high-risk regions (Europe, southern Africa, Asia)\n - WOAH timeline/criteria for status recovery (waiting periods)\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether Greece/Cyprus European outbreaks contained and free status restored before Sept 2026\n - Possibility of new European outbreak spillover (e.g., Hungary referenced in portal)\n - Speed of WOAH reclassification process\n - Whether southern African outbreaks (Eswatini/Botswana/Lesotho) persist or resolve\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving probabilities, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The status quo outcome \u2014 the option most likely if nothing changes from today.\n (c) An outcome that would be SURPRISING but plausible.\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Status quo anchoring.** Good forecasters put extra weight on the status quo option because the world changes slowly most of the time.\n- **Leave moderate probability on most options.** Good forecasters don\u0027t drop options to ~0% \u2014 leave \u22653-5% on every option to account for unexpected outcomes, unless you have strong specific evidence ruling them out.\n- Avoid uniform-distribution laziness \u2014 most options are not equally likely.\n- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) for these options appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong prior and stay close to them absent specific contrary evidence.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) (b) (c) above, then explain your distribution \u2014 4-7 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"probabilities\": {\n \"Less than 4\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"4 or 5\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"6 or 7\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"More than 7\": \u003cprob\u003e\n }\n}\n\nProbabilities MUST sum to ~1.0 (renormalization is applied; close enough is fine).\n",
"models": [
"opus"
],
"probabilities": {
"4 or 5": 0.5,
"6 or 7": 0.32,
"Less than 4": 0.1,
"More than 7": 0.08
},
"rationale": "(a) Roughly 10-11 months remain until the September 1, 2026 resolution, enough time for both recovery of current outbreaks and emergence of new ones. (b) The status quo is 5 suspended countries (Eswatini, Botswana, Greece, Cyprus, Lesotho), which falls in the \u00274 or 5\u0027 bucket and is the most likely outcome since WOAH free-status restoration typically takes many months after the last case. (c) A surprising-but-plausible outcome is a fresh European spillover wave (Hungary/Germany-style) pushing the count above 7, or conversely multiple simultaneous recoveries dropping it below 4. The Monte Carlo model centers on ~5.2 with P(exactly 5)=0.46, and meaningful mass on 6 (0.25) and 7 (0.07), reflecting real chance of new outbreaks. I weight \u00274 or 5\u0027 as the dominant status-quo anchor, give substantial probability to \u00276 or 7\u0027 given recent European/African FMD activity, and leave modest tails for fewer (recoveries) and more (larger wave).",
"top_option": "4 or 5"
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "health",
"n_sub_qs": 4,
"n_tools": 4,
"reasoning_approach": "Anchor on the current count of 5, then adjust downward for likely status recoveries (sq1/sq2) and upward for new outbreaks (sq3/sq4); the weighted blend and Monte Carlo translate these factors into a probability distribution over the multiple-choice count buckets.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will all 5 currently-suspended countries (Eswatini, Botswana, Greece, Cyprus, Lesotho) still be under FMD suspension on September 1, 2026?",
"rationale": "FMD free status recovery takes time (typically several months to over a year), so the existing 5 likely persist, anchoring the baseline count.",
"weight": 0.35
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will at least one of the current 5 countries regain its FMD-free status before September 1, 2026?",
"rationale": "WOAH allows status restoration after demonstrating disease control; recovery would reduce the count below 5.",
"weight": 0.25
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will at least one new country acquire FMD suspension status between now and September 1, 2026?",
"rationale": "Recent European spread (Hungary, Germany, Greece) shows new outbreaks are plausible, which would increase the count.",
"weight": 0.25
},
{
"id": "sq4",
"question": "Will two or more new countries acquire FMD suspension status between now and September 1, 2026?",
"rationale": "Captures the tail of a larger outbreak wave that would push the count well above 5.",
"weight": 0.15
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find the current WOAH/OIE list of countries under \u0027suspension of FMD free status\u0027 for foot-and-mouth disease, and any recent (2025-2026) new outbreaks, status suspensions, or restorations of FMD-free status in Europe, Africa, and elsewhere. Note dates and countries.",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "How many countries will be classified as having an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease on September 1, 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_days": 180,
"queries": [
"foot-and-mouth disease outbreak 2025 2026 new country Europe",
"WOAH FMD free status suspended restored",
"foot and mouth disease Germany Hungary Greece Botswana Eswatini status"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"foot-and-mouth disease 2025 European outbreak",
"World Organisation for Animal Health FMD official status"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "wikipedia_lookup"
},
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\n# Base count = 5. Model count distribution via Monte Carlo of sub-question outcomes.\nnp.random.seed(0)\nN=100000\n# probabilities (to be refined by research)\np_recover_one=0.30 # at least one of 5 regains status\np_new_one=0.40 # at least one new suspension\np_new_two=0.18 # two or more new\ncounts=[]\nfor _ in range(N):\n base=5\n # recoveries: model 0-3 recoveries\n recoveries=np.random.binomial(5, 0.08)\n # new outbreaks: model number new\n new=np.random.poisson(0.6)\n counts.append(base-recoveries+new)\ncounts=np.array(counts)\nfor k in range(0,12):\n print(k, round((counts==k).mean(),3))\nprint(\u0027mean\u0027, counts.mean())",
"description": "Monte Carlo of FMD suspended-country count distribution around baseline of 5"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-06-25T12:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nAt the time of this question, there are 5 countries with this status: Eswatini, Botswana, Greece, Cyprus and Lesotho. For more information please see foot-and-mouth disease updates portal maintained by the UK\u0027s Department for Environment, Food \u0026 Rural Affairs\u0027 [here](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/foot-and-mouth-disease-in-hungary).\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"e24aa0d3ce6da617\", \"sheet_id\": \"62\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the number of countries classified as being under \"suspension of FMD free status\" at the World Organisation for Animal Health [Map of FMD official status](https://www.woah.org/en/disease/foot-and-mouth-disease/#ui-id-2) when accessed by Metaculus on or after September 1, 2026.",
"options": [
"Less than 4",
"4 or 5",
"6 or 7",
"More than 7"
],
"question_type": "multiple_choice",
"title": "How many countries will be classified as having an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease on September 1, 2026?"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### No signal found",
"errors": [
"wikipedia_lookup: None"
],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 1,
"n_tools": 4,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 39.46,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "14 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 1.16,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "27 articles",
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.95,
"error": null,
"success": false,
"summary": "2 pages",
"tool_name": "wikipedia_lookup"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.8,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Monte Carlo of FMD suspended-country count distribution arou",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "Monte Carlo model centered on baseline 5 gives P(exactly 5)=0.46 and mean count 5.20 by September 2026.",
"credibility": 40,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Current 5 suspended countries are Eswatini, Botswana, Greece, Cyprus, and Lesotho per DEFRA/WOAH portal.",
"credibility": 88,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "claude_news",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Targeted news search returned no articles documenting any of the 5 countries regaining FMD-free status before September 2026.",
"credibility": 35,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "News search surfaced no reports of new countries acquiring FMD suspension status during the research window.",
"credibility": 35,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Model assigns substantial probability mass to 6+ countries (0.247 for 6, 0.071 for 7), implying meaningful chance of new outbreaks.",
"credibility": 40,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Model gives ~0.087 cumulative probability to counts of 7 or higher, consistent with two-or-more new outbreaks being unlikely but possible.",
"credibility": 40,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"Historical base rate for how long FMD suspensions typically last before WOAH restores free status",
"Current epidemiological status/trajectory of the 5 suspended countries\u0027 outbreaks",
"Recent FMD outbreak activity in high-risk regions (Europe, southern Africa, Asia)",
"WOAH timeline/criteria for status recovery (waiting periods)"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether Greece/Cyprus European outbreaks contained and free status restored before Sept 2026",
"Possibility of new European outbreak spillover (e.g., Hungary referenced in portal)",
"Speed of WOAH reclassification process",
"Whether southern African outbreaks (Eswatini/Botswana/Lesotho) persist or resolve"
],
"n_evidence": 6
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 15.07,
"plan": 18.8,
"research": 39.46,
"synthesis": 14.49
}
}