Estimate the probability of each correlated driver—outbreak escalation, CDC's historical propensity to exceed Level 2, and emergence of a new triggering event—then blend via weighted average, anchored by the low base rate of CDC raising notices above Level 2 for endemic-region yellow fever.
## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" → Yes: 0.02, Volume: $70.7M
1. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 30 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Article search returned no updated yellow fever case/death figures for Colombia beyond the original 192 cases and 85 deaths cited in the question. 2. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 40 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Colombia coverage in 2026 centered on the presidential election and rebel violence, with no reporting of escalating yellow fever spread. 3. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | RECENT] CDC issued only a Level 2 travel notice for circulating poliovirus in March 2026, advising enhanced precautions rather than escalating above Level 2. 4. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 50 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Despite a WHO-declared global health emergency Ebola outbreak in Congo/Uganda, reporting did not indicate CDC raising Latin American notices above Level 2. 5. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] CDC is experiencing a leadership vacuum, has lost roughly a quarter of staff to cuts and attrition, and lacks a confirmed director as of March 2026. 6. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No reporting found of urban yellow fever transmission, vaccine shortage, or WHO escalation specifically for Colombia through June 2026. 7. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] WHO declared a global health emergency for the Congo/Uganda Ebola outbreak in May 2026, demonstrating active international escalation machinery, but unrelated to Colombia. ## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" → Yes: 0.02, Volume: $70.7M Information gaps: - No current Colombia yellow fever case/death counts for 2026 - No base rate on how often CDC raises notices above Level 2 for yellow fever - No data on Colombia yellow fever vaccine supply or urban transmission - Unclear how CDC staffing cuts affect notice-issuance frequency Key uncertainties: - Whether outbreak escalated or contained since question creation - CDC's actual threshold for exceeding Level 2 for endemic-region yellow fever - Possible emergence of urban transmission or new WHO escalation for Colombia - Impact of CDC leadership/staffing disruption on travel notice decisions
You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates — your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.
## Question
Will the CDC raise the Travel Health Notice status of Colombia to above level 2 before September 1, 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
[Yellow fever outbreak in Colombia with 192 cases and 85 deaths](https://globalriskatlas.com/en/yellow-fever-outbreak-in-colombia-with-192-cases-and-85-deaths/)
`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "532ee4eac9cc7ec1", "sheet_id": "63"}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as Yes if the [Travel Health Notice status of Colombia](https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/destinations/traveler/none/colombia), which is "Level 2 Practice Enhanced Precautions" at the time of this question, is a level of greater than 2 when checked by Metaculus on or after September 1, 2026.
## Sub-question decomposition
- (w=0.40) Will the yellow fever outbreak in Colombia continue to escalate (rising case/death counts or geographic spread) through mid-2026? — An escalating outbreak is the primary driver that could push CDC to raise the notice level.
- (w=0.35) Does the CDC have a historical pattern of raising Travel Health Notices above Level 2 for yellow fever or similar disease outbreaks in Latin American countries? — Establishes the base rate; CDC rarely goes above Level 2 even for active outbreaks, often using targeted vaccination adv
- (w=0.25) Will a new triggering event (e.g., urban transmission, vaccine shortage, or major international concern/WHO escalation) emerge for Colombia before September 2026? — A Level 3 reclassification typically requires a notable escalation beyond steady-state outbreak conditions.
Combination rule: **weighted_average**
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 30 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Article search returned no updated yellow fever case/death figures for Colombia beyond the original 192 cases and 85 deaths cited in the question.
2. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 40 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Colombia coverage in 2026 centered on the presidential election and rebel violence, with no reporting of escalating yellow fever spread.
3. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | RECENT] CDC issued only a Level 2 travel notice for circulating poliovirus in March 2026, advising enhanced precautions rather than escalating above Level 2.
4. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 50 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Despite a WHO-declared global health emergency Ebola outbreak in Congo/Uganda, reporting did not indicate CDC raising Latin American notices above Level 2.
5. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] CDC is experiencing a leadership vacuum, has lost roughly a quarter of staff to cuts and attrition, and lacks a confirmed director as of March 2026.
6. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No reporting found of urban yellow fever transmission, vaccine shortage, or WHO escalation specifically for Colombia through June 2026.
7. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] WHO declared a global health emergency for the Congo/Uganda Ebola outbreak in May 2026, demonstrating active international escalation machinery, but unrelated to Colombia.
## Cross-Market Signals
### Polymarket
- "Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" → Yes: 0.02, Volume: $70.7M
Information gaps:
- No current Colombia yellow fever case/death counts for 2026
- No base rate on how often CDC raises notices above Level 2 for yellow fever
- No data on Colombia yellow fever vaccine supply or urban transmission
- Unclear how CDC staffing cuts affect notice-issuance frequency
Key uncertainties:
- Whether outbreak escalated or contained since question creation
- CDC's actual threshold for exceeding Level 2 for endemic-region yellow fever
- Possible emergence of urban transmission or new WHO escalation for Colombia
- Impact of CDC leadership/staffing disruption on travel notice decisions
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The status quo outcome — what happens if nothing changes from today.
(c) A brief scenario that results in NO.
(d) A brief scenario that results in YES.
## Calibration guidance
- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition — independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.
- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.
- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid >0.97 or <0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological — overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question — move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.
- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or "very recent" claim — especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility — must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.
- **Also provide a holistic estimate** — your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) (d) above — 5-8 sentences total>",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq2": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq3": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>
},
"holistic_p_yes": <float in [0.01, 0.99] — your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition>,
"what_would_change_my_mind": "<1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%>"
}
{
"forecast": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 30 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Article search returned no updated yellow fever case/death figures for Colombia beyond the original 192 cases and 85 deaths cited in the question.\n2. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 40 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Colombia coverage in 2026 centered on the presidential election and rebel violence, with no reporting of escalating yellow fever spread.\n3. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | RECENT] CDC issued only a Level 2 travel notice for circulating poliovirus in March 2026, advising enhanced precautions rather than escalating above Level 2.\n4. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 50 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Despite a WHO-declared global health emergency Ebola outbreak in Congo/Uganda, reporting did not indicate CDC raising Latin American notices above Level 2.\n5. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] CDC is experiencing a leadership vacuum, has lost roughly a quarter of staff to cuts and attrition, and lacks a confirmed director as of March 2026.\n6. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No reporting found of urban yellow fever transmission, vaccine shortage, or WHO escalation specifically for Colombia through June 2026.\n7. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] WHO declared a global health emergency for the Congo/Uganda Ebola outbreak in May 2026, demonstrating active international escalation machinery, but unrelated to Colombia.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.02, Volume: $70.7M\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No current Colombia yellow fever case/death counts for 2026\n - No base rate on how often CDC raises notices above Level 2 for yellow fever\n - No data on Colombia yellow fever vaccine supply or urban transmission\n - Unclear how CDC staffing cuts affect notice-issuance frequency\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether outbreak escalated or contained since question creation\n - CDC\u0027s actual threshold for exceeding Level 2 for endemic-region yellow fever\n - Possible emergence of urban transmission or new WHO escalation for Colombia\n - Impact of CDC leadership/staffing disruption on travel notice decisions",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates \u2014 your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.\n\n## Question\nWill the CDC raise the Travel Health Notice status of Colombia to above level 2 before September 1, 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\n[Yellow fever outbreak in Colombia with 192 cases and 85 deaths](https://globalriskatlas.com/en/yellow-fever-outbreak-in-colombia-with-192-cases-and-85-deaths/)\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"532ee4eac9cc7ec1\", \"sheet_id\": \"63\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as Yes if the [Travel Health Notice status of Colombia](https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/destinations/traveler/none/colombia), which is \"Level 2 Practice Enhanced Precautions\" at the time of this question, is a level of greater than 2 when checked by Metaculus on or after September 1, 2026.\n\n## Sub-question decomposition\n- (w=0.40) Will the yellow fever outbreak in Colombia continue to escalate (rising case/death counts or geographic spread) through mid-2026? \u2014 An escalating outbreak is the primary driver that could push CDC to raise the notice level.\n- (w=0.35) Does the CDC have a historical pattern of raising Travel Health Notices above Level 2 for yellow fever or similar disease outbreaks in Latin American countries? \u2014 Establishes the base rate; CDC rarely goes above Level 2 even for active outbreaks, often using targeted vaccination adv\n- (w=0.25) Will a new triggering event (e.g., urban transmission, vaccine shortage, or major international concern/WHO escalation) emerge for Colombia before September 2026? \u2014 A Level 3 reclassification typically requires a notable escalation beyond steady-state outbreak conditions.\n\nCombination rule: **weighted_average**\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 30 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Article search returned no updated yellow fever case/death figures for Colombia beyond the original 192 cases and 85 deaths cited in the question.\n2. [sq1 | article_search | WEAK cred 40 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Colombia coverage in 2026 centered on the presidential election and rebel violence, with no reporting of escalating yellow fever spread.\n3. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | RECENT] CDC issued only a Level 2 travel notice for circulating poliovirus in March 2026, advising enhanced precautions rather than escalating above Level 2.\n4. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 50 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Despite a WHO-declared global health emergency Ebola outbreak in Congo/Uganda, reporting did not indicate CDC raising Latin American notices above Level 2.\n5. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] CDC is experiencing a leadership vacuum, has lost roughly a quarter of staff to cuts and attrition, and lacks a confirmed director as of March 2026.\n6. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No reporting found of urban yellow fever transmission, vaccine shortage, or WHO escalation specifically for Colombia through June 2026.\n7. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] WHO declared a global health emergency for the Congo/Uganda Ebola outbreak in May 2026, demonstrating active international escalation machinery, but unrelated to Colombia.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.02, Volume: $70.7M\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No current Colombia yellow fever case/death counts for 2026\n - No base rate on how often CDC raises notices above Level 2 for yellow fever\n - No data on Colombia yellow fever vaccine supply or urban transmission\n - Unclear how CDC staffing cuts affect notice-issuance frequency\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether outbreak escalated or contained since question creation\n - CDC\u0027s actual threshold for exceeding Level 2 for endemic-region yellow fever\n - Possible emergence of urban transmission or new WHO escalation for Colombia\n - Impact of CDC leadership/staffing disruption on travel notice decisions\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The status quo outcome \u2014 what happens if nothing changes from today.\n (c) A brief scenario that results in NO.\n (d) A brief scenario that results in YES.\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition \u2014 independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.\n- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.\n- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid \u003e0.97 or \u003c0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological \u2014 overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.\n- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question \u2014 move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.\n- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or \"very recent\" claim \u2014 especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility \u2014 must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.\n- **Also provide a holistic estimate** \u2014 your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) (b) (c) (d) above \u2014 5-8 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"sub_question_estimates\": {\n \"sq1\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq2\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq3\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e\n },\n \"holistic_p_yes\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99] \u2014 your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition\u003e,\n \"what_would_change_my_mind\": \"\u003c1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%\u003e\"\n}\n",
"holistic_p_yes": 0.09,
"models": [
"opus"
],
"p_yes": 0.16469999999999999,
"rationale": "(a) About 2-3 months remain until the September 1, 2026 resolution, with research extending through mid-2026. (b) Status quo: Colombia remains at Level 2 \u0027Practice Enhanced Precautions,\u0027 which is where CDC keeps most active yellow fever situations in endemic Latin American regions. (c) NO scenario (most likely): the outbreak stays contained or only steadily simmers, coverage stays focused on elections/rebel violence, CDC\u2014understaffed and leaderless\u2014maintains the Level 2 vaccination-focused advisory, consistent with how it handled Brazil\u0027s 2018 yellow fever surge. (d) YES scenario: sustained urban transmission emerges, a vaccine shortage develops, or WHO escalates specifically for Colombia, prompting CDC to issue a rare Level 3 notice. The evidence strongly favors NO: no reported escalation, no urban transmission, no WHO action on Colombia, and CDC\u0027s consistent reluctance to exceed Level 2 for yellow fever. The weakened CDC staffing further reduces the likelihood of proactive escalation.",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": 0.35,
"sq2": 0.12,
"sq3": 0.13
},
"what_would_change_my_mind": "Reports of urban/sustained yellow fever transmission in Colombian cities, a WHO emergency declaration for Colombia, or a documented vaccine shortage would push me above 30%; confirmation the outbreak was contained would push me below 10%."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "health",
"n_sub_qs": 3,
"n_tools": 3,
"reasoning_approach": "Estimate the probability of each correlated driver\u2014outbreak escalation, CDC\u0027s historical propensity to exceed Level 2, and emergence of a new triggering event\u2014then blend via weighted average, anchored by the low base rate of CDC raising notices above Level 2 for endemic-region yellow fever.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will the yellow fever outbreak in Colombia continue to escalate (rising case/death counts or geographic spread) through mid-2026?",
"rationale": "An escalating outbreak is the primary driver that could push CDC to raise the notice level.",
"weight": 0.4
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Does the CDC have a historical pattern of raising Travel Health Notices above Level 2 for yellow fever or similar disease outbreaks in Latin American countries?",
"rationale": "Establishes the base rate; CDC rarely goes above Level 2 even for active outbreaks, often using targeted vaccination advice instead of a Level 3 warning.",
"weight": 0.35
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will a new triggering event (e.g., urban transmission, vaccine shortage, or major international concern/WHO escalation) emerge for Colombia before September 2026?",
"rationale": "A Level 3 reclassification typically requires a notable escalation beyond steady-state outbreak conditions.",
"weight": 0.25
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Current status and trajectory of the yellow fever outbreak in Colombia in 2025-2026, including case counts, deaths, geographic spread, and any CDC or WHO travel advisory changes.",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "Will the CDC raise the Travel Health Notice status of Colombia to above level 2 before September 1, 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_days": 180,
"queries": [
"CDC Travel Health Notice Colombia yellow fever level",
"Colombia yellow fever outbreak 2025 2026 cases deaths",
"CDC Level 3 travel notice yellow fever Latin America"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"Yellow fever",
"CDC Travel Health Notices",
"2024 yellow fever outbreaks South America"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq2"
],
"tool_name": "wikipedia_lookup"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-06-25T09:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\n[Yellow fever outbreak in Colombia with 192 cases and 85 deaths](https://globalriskatlas.com/en/yellow-fever-outbreak-in-colombia-with-192-cases-and-85-deaths/)\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"532ee4eac9cc7ec1\", \"sheet_id\": \"63\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as Yes if the [Travel Health Notice status of Colombia](https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/destinations/traveler/none/colombia), which is \"Level 2 Practice Enhanced Precautions\" at the time of this question, is a level of greater than 2 when checked by Metaculus on or after September 1, 2026.",
"question_type": "binary",
"title": "Will the CDC raise the Travel Health Notice status of Colombia to above level 2 before September 1, 2026?"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.02, Volume: $70.7M",
"errors": [
"wikipedia_lookup: None"
],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 1,
"n_tools": 3,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 42.05,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "15 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.97,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "14 articles",
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.62,
"error": null,
"success": false,
"summary": "3 pages",
"tool_name": "wikipedia_lookup"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "Article search returned no updated yellow fever case/death figures for Colombia beyond the original 192 cases and 85 deaths cited in the question.",
"credibility": 30,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Colombia coverage in 2026 centered on the presidential election and rebel violence, with no reporting of escalating yellow fever spread.",
"credibility": 40,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "CDC issued only a Level 2 travel notice for circulating poliovirus in March 2026, advising enhanced precautions rather than escalating above Level 2.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Despite a WHO-declared global health emergency Ebola outbreak in Congo/Uganda, reporting did not indicate CDC raising Latin American notices above Level 2.",
"credibility": 50,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "CDC is experiencing a leadership vacuum, has lost roughly a quarter of staff to cuts and attrition, and lacks a confirmed director as of March 2026.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "No reporting found of urban yellow fever transmission, vaccine shortage, or WHO escalation specifically for Colombia through June 2026.",
"credibility": 35,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "WHO declared a global health emergency for the Congo/Uganda Ebola outbreak in May 2026, demonstrating active international escalation machinery, but unrelated to Colombia.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No current Colombia yellow fever case/death counts for 2026",
"No base rate on how often CDC raises notices above Level 2 for yellow fever",
"No data on Colombia yellow fever vaccine supply or urban transmission",
"Unclear how CDC staffing cuts affect notice-issuance frequency"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether outbreak escalated or contained since question creation",
"CDC\u0027s actual threshold for exceeding Level 2 for endemic-region yellow fever",
"Possible emergence of urban transmission or new WHO escalation for Colombia",
"Impact of CDC leadership/staffing disruption on travel notice decisions"
],
"n_evidence": 7
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 18.18,
"plan": 11.42,
"research": 42.05,
"synthesis": 14.72
}
}